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Probabilistic Method

This document discusses the probabilistic method. It defines probability as the number of possible outcomes divided by the total number of outcomes. Some key terms are introduced such as experiment, sample space, and event. Examples are provided to demonstrate calculating probabilities using the addition law of probability and conditional probability. The addition law of probability is also stated for three events.

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Shàhzád Àñsärì
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47 views

Probabilistic Method

This document discusses the probabilistic method. It defines probability as the number of possible outcomes divided by the total number of outcomes. Some key terms are introduced such as experiment, sample space, and event. Examples are provided to demonstrate calculating probabilities using the addition law of probability and conditional probability. The addition law of probability is also stated for three events.

Uploaded by

Shàhzád Àñsärì
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Presentation Topic:

“Probabilistic Method”
“Presented by”

• Asif (3306)
• Shahzad Tanveer (3311)
• M. Faiz (3330)
• Hafiz Haseeb Ahmad (3332)
• Saad Ahmar (3338)
“Probability”
It is defined as “ The number of possible
outcomes divided by total number of
outcomes.”

Probability = No.of possible outcomes = n(E)


________________________ ____
Total No.of Outcomes n(S)

Probability is denoted by “P”. Possible


outcomes is denoted by “E” and Total no.of
Outcomes is denoted by “S”.
“Important Terms For
Probability”
Experiment:-

An action performed to get some result is

called an Experiment.

Sample Space:-

The set of possible outcomes is known as

Sample Space.

Event:-

An event is the subset of sample space.


EXAMPLE:
What is the probability of getting a number greater than 4 when
a dice is tossed?

SOLUTION:

When a dice is rolled its sample space is


S={1,2,3,4,5,6}
Let E be the event that a number greater than 4
occurs. Then
E = {5, 6} Hence,

P(E) = n(E) = 6 = 3 Ans.


____ __
n(S) 2
THEOREM:
Let E be an event in a sample space S. The probability of the complementary event
E of E is given by:
P(Ec) = 1 – P(E)
EXAMPLE:
Let 2 items be chosen at random from a lot containing 12 items of which
4 are defective. What is the probability that (i) none of the items chosen are
defective, (ii) at least one item is defective?

SOLUTION:
The number of ways 2 items can be chosen from 12 items
=C(12, 2) = 66.
Let A be the event that none of the items chosen are defective.
The number of favorable outcomes for A = The number of ways 2 items
can be chosen from 8 non-defective items = C(8, 2) = 28.
Hence,

P(A) = 28/66 = 14/33.

Let B be the event that at least one item chosen is defective.


Then clearly, B = Ac
P(B) = P(Ac)
= 1 – P(A) = 1 – 14/33 = 19/33 Ans.
ADDITION LAW OF PROBABILITY

THEOREM:

If A and B are two disjoint (mutually exclusive)

events of a sample space S, then

P (A∪B) = P(A) + P(B)

In words, the probability of the happening of an

event A or an event B or both is equal to the sum

of the probabilities of event A and event B

provided the events have nothing in common.


EXERCISE:
A bag contains 6 white, 5 black and 4 red balls. Find the
probability of getting a white or a black ball in a single draw.

SOLUTION:
Let A be the event of getting a white ball and B be the
event of getting a black ball.
Total number of balls = 6 + 5 + 4 = 15
Since the two events are disjoint (mutually exclusive),therefore
P(A) = 6 / 15
P(B) = 5 / 15
So Now
P(A U B)= P(A) + P(B)
= 6 5
___ + ___
15 15

= 11
____ Ans.
15
Conditional Probability
DEFINITION:
Let E and F be two events in the sample
space of an experiment with P(F) ≠ 0. The
Conditional Probability of E given F,
denoted by P(E|F), is defined as
P(E|F) = P(A ∩ B)
________
P(B)
EXAMPLE:
Let A and B be events of an experiment
such that P(B) = 1/4 and P(A∩B) = 1/6.
What is the conditional probability P(A|B)
SOLUTION:

P(A|B) = P(A ∩ B)
________
P(B)

= 1/6
____
1/4

= 2/3 Ans.
ADDITION LAW OF PROBABILITY FOR
THREE EVENTS:
If A, B and C are any three events, then
P(A∪B∪C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) - P(A∩B) - P (A ∩C) - P(B ∩C) + P(A ∩B ∩C)

EXERCISE:

Three newspapers A, B, C are published in a city and a survey of readers

indicates the following: 20% read A, 16% read B, 14% read C 8% read

both A and B, 5% read both A and C 4% read both B and C, 2% read all

the three For a person chosen at random, find the probability w.r.t

Addition of three events.


SOLUTION:
P(A)= 20% = 20/100 = 0.2
P(B)= 16% = 16/100 = 0.16
P(C)= 14% = 14/100 = 0.14
P(A ∩ B)= 8% = 8/100 = 0.08
P(A ∩ C)= 5% = 5/100 = 0.05
P(B ∩ C)= 4% = 4/100 = 0.04 and
P(A ∩ B ∩ C)= 2% = 2/100 = 0.02
Now the probability that person reads A or B or C
P(A∪B∪C)= P(A) + P(B) + P(C) - P(A∩B) - P(A ∩C) - P(B ∩C)+ P(A ∩B ∩C)
= 20 16 14 8 5 4 2
____ + ____ + ____ + ____ + ____ + ____ + ____
100 100 100 100 100 100 100

= 35
____ Ans.
100

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