What is Shift-Share Analysis?

• One way to account for a region’s

competitiveness
• Provides a picture of how well a region’s
mix of industries is performing
• Also, shows how well individual industries
are doing
• Can be used to analyze individual
industries or the whole economy
 What is Shift-Share Analysis?
• Breaks down regional employment growth
into three components:
– National share (NS)
– Industry mix (IM)
– Regional shift (RS)
What is Shift-Share Analysis?

• National Share (NS) Component

– Share of regional job growth attributable to
growth of the national economy
– “If the regional industry grew at the industry’s
national growth rate, what would be the result?”

t 1  EUS
t

NS  E
t
ir ir   t 1  1
 EUS 
Where:
t = current time period t-1 = one year ago
i = specific industry r = specific region
What is Shift-Share Analysis?
• Industry Mix (IM) Component
– How much growth can be attributed to the
region’s mix of industries?
– Also estimates how many jobs were created/not
created in each industry due to differences in
industry and total national growth rates

t 1  EiUS
t
  EUS t

IM  E   t 1    t 1 
t
ir
ir
 EiUS   EUS 
Where:
t = current time period t-1 = one year ago
i = specific industry r = specific region
What is Shift-Share Analysis?
• Regional Shift (RS) Component
– How many jobs are created/not created as a
result of the region’s competitiveness?
– Perhaps the most important component
– Identifies the region’s leading and lagging
industries

 Eirt   EiUS 
RS  t 1
t

E 
t
ir  t 1    t 1 
ir  Eir   EiUS 
Where:
t = current time period t-1 = one year ago
i = specific industry r = specific region
 A Shift-Share Example
• Compare a county to the U.S. economy.
• We’ll use 1993 and 1998 with total
employment divided into six sectors.
• Rule of thumb is to use two time periods 5
or fewer years apart.
• Analysis can be quite different for different
time periods.
 A Shift-Share Example
• National total employment and by major
industry sector, 1993 – 1998.

United States Change in Percent

1993 1998 Jobs Change
Total Employment 141,996,000 160,199,000 18,203,000
Farm 3,130,000 3,127,000 -3,000
Manufacturing 18,712,000 19,569,000 857,000
Retail 23,467,000 26,710,000 3,243,000
Finance and Real Estate 10,502,000 12,230,000 1,728,000
Service 41,811,000 49,898,000 8,087,000
All other 44,375,000 48,665,000 4,290,000
 A Shift-Share Example
• Calculate the percentage change in U.S.
total employment and by industry sector.

United States Change in Percent

1993 1998 Jobs Change
Total Employment 141,996,000 160,199,000 18,203,000 12.8%
Farm 3,130,000 3,127,000 -3,000 -0.1%
Manufacturing 18,712,000 19,569,000 857,000 4.6%
Retail 23,467,000 26,710,000 3,243,000 13.8%
Finance and Real Estate 10,502,000 12,230,000 1,728,000 16.5%
Service 41,811,000 49,898,000 8,087,000 19.3%
All other 44,375,000 48,665,000 4,290,000 9.7%
 A Shift-Share Example
• County total employment and by major
industry sector, 1993 – 1998.

A County Change in Percent

1993 1998 Jobs Change
Total Employment 253,463 283,417 29,954
Farm 7,951 7,977 26
Manufacturing 58,516 61,229 2,713
Retail 44,752 50,339 5,587
Finance and Real Estate 16,193 18,547 2,354
Service 62,518 75,441 12,923
All other 63,533 69,884 6,351
 A Shift-Share Example
• Calculate the percentage change in the
county’s total employment and by industry
sector.
A County Change in Percent
1993 1998 Jobs Change
Total Employment 253,463 283,417 29,954 11.8%
Farm 7,951 7,977 26 0.3%
Manufacturing 58,516 61,229 2,713 4.6%
Retail 44,752 50,339 5,587 12.5%
Finance and Real Estate 16,193 18,547 2,354 14.5%
Service 62,518 75,441 12,923 20.7%
All other 63,533 69,884 6,351 10.0%
 A Shift-Share Example
• Calculating the NS component.

1993 U.S. National

Industry County Emp Growth Rate Growth Share
Farm 7,951
Manufacturing 58,516
Retail 44,752
Finance and Real Estate 16,193
Service 62,518
All other 63,533
County National Growth Share =
 A Shift-Share Example
• Calculating the NS component.

1993 U.S. National

Industry County Emp Growth Rate Growth Share
Farm 7,951 12.8%
Manufacturing 58,516 12.8%
Retail 44,752 12.8%
Finance and Real Estate 16,193 12.8%
Service 62,518 12.8%
All other 63,533 12.8%
County National Growth Share =
 A Shift-Share Example

• If the county’s industries grew at the overall

national rate of growth new job growth would
have been 32,492 between 1993 and 1998.
1993 U.S. National
Industry County Emp Growth Rate Growth Share
Farm 7,951 12.8% 1,019
Manufacturing 58,516 12.8% 7,501
Retail 44,752 12.8% 5,737
Finance and Real Estate 16,193 12.8% 2,076
Service 62,518 12.8% 8,014
All other 63,533 12.8% 8,145
County National Growth Share = 32,492

Ex: 7,951 * ((160,199,000/141,996,000)-1) = 1,019

 A Shift-Share Example
• Calculating the IM component.

Industry's
1993 National U.S. Industry Mix
Industry County Emp Growth Rate Growth Rate Share
Farm 7,951
Manufacturing 58,516
Retail 44,752
Finance and Real Estate 16,193
Service 62,518
All other 63,533
County Industry Mix Share =
 A Shift-Share Example
• Calculating the IM component.

Industry's
1993 National U.S. Industry Mix
Industry County Emp Growth Rate Growth Rate Share
Farm 7,951 -0.1%
Manufacturing 58,516 4.6%
Retail 44,752 13.8%
Finance and Real Estate 16,193 16.5%
Service 62,518 19.3%
All other 63,533 9.7%
County Industry Mix Share =
 A Shift-Share Example
• Calculating the IM component.

Industry's
1993 National U.S. Industry Mix
Industry County Emp Growth Rate Growth Rate Share
Farm 7,951 -0.1% 12.8%
Manufacturing 58,516 4.6% 12.8%
Retail 44,752 13.8% 12.8%
Finance and Real Estate 16,193 16.5% 12.8%
Service 62,518 19.3% 12.8%
All other 63,533 9.7% 12.8%
County Industry Mix Share =
 A Shift-Share Example
• The industrial mix component of –2,737 means
that the county has nearly 2,800 fewer jobs than
it would have had if its structure were identical to
the nation’s.
Industry's
1993 National U.S. Industry Mix
Industry County Emp Growth Rate Growth Rate Share
Farm 7,951 -0.1% 12.8% -1,027
Manufacturing 58,516 4.6% 12.8% -4,821
Retail 44,752 13.8% 12.8% 448
Finance and Real Estate 16,193 16.5% 12.8% 589
Service 62,518 19.3% 12.8% 4,078
All other 63,533 9.7% 12.8% -2,002
County Industry Mix Share = -2,737

Ex: 7,951 * ((3,127/3,130)-1) – ((160,199/141,996)-1)) = -1,027

 A Shift-Share Example
• Calculating the RS component.

County's Industry's
1993 Industry National Regional
Industry County Emp Growth Rate Growth Rate Shift
Farm 7,951
Manufacturing 58,516
Retail 44,752
Finance and Real Estate 16,193
Service 62,518
All other 63,533
County Local Share =
 A Shift-Share Example
• Calculating the RS component.

County's Industry's
1993 Industry National Regional
Industry County Emp Growth Rate Growth Rate Shift
Farm 7,951 0.3%
Manufacturing 58,516 4.6%
Retail 44,752 12.5%
Finance and Real Estate 16,193 14.5%
Service 62,518 20.7%
All other 63,533 10.0%
County Local Share =
 A Shift-Share Example
• Calculating the RS component.

County's Industry's
1993 Industry National Regional
Industry County Emp Growth Rate Growth Rate Shift
Farm 7,951 0.3% -0.1%
Manufacturing 58,516 4.6% 4.6%
Retail 44,752 12.5% 13.8%
Finance and Real Estate 16,193 14.5% 16.5%
Service 62,518 20.7% 19.3%
All other 63,533 10.0% 9.7%
County Local Share =
 A Shift-Share Example
• The regional shift component shows that 199
new jobs in the county are attributable to its
relative competitive position. This is primarily
due to its high-growth of service employment.

County's Industry's
1993 Industry National Regional
Industry County Emp Growth Rate Growth Rate Shift
Farm 7,951 0.3% -0.1% 34
Manufacturing 58,516 4.6% 4.6% 33
Retail 44,752 12.5% 13.8% -597
Finance and Real Estate 16,193 14.5% 16.5% -310
Service 62,518 20.7% 19.3% 831
All other 63,533 10.0% 9.7% 209
County Local Share = 199
Ex: 7,951 * (((7,977/7,951)-1) - ((3,127/3,130)-1)) = 34
 A Shift-Share Example
• Adding it all up
– Make sure your math is correct by adding the
three components.
– They should total the actual change in
employment for the region

Eir = IMtir + NStir + RStir

 Shift Share Lab
• Calculate NS, IM, and RS for each
industry and make sure that total
employment change in the region is equal
to the sum of the three total components.
• Identify the SICs with positive IM and RS
values and among those, which ones have
RS>IM.
 t 1  EUS
t

NS  E
t
ir ir   t 1  1
 EUS 
 EiUS
t
  EUS t

IM  E
t
ir
t 1
ir   t 1    t 1 
 EiUS   EUS 

 Eirt   EiUS 
RS  E
t
t 1

t
ir ir  t 1    t 1 
 Eir   EiUS 