CHAPTER 11

PROJECT RISK ANALYSIS

 Introduction
 Risk is inherent in almost every business decision
 Different projects in a business differ in the quantum and
the type of risk e.g a research and development project may
be more risky than expansion project and latter tends to be
more risky than a replacement project
 So variations in risk need to be evaluated explicitly in
capital investment appraisal
 Financial analysis generally evaluate capital investment
proposals in 2 stages:
 Calculate the NPV ,IRR etc to evaluate the most likely
things
 Calculate the underlying sources of risk and explores the
consequences thereof
 OUTLINE

   Sources, measures, and perspectives on risk

    Sensitivity analysis
    Scenario analysis
    Break-even analysis
    Simulation analysis
    Decision tree analysis
    Managing risk
    Project selection under risk
    Risk analysis in practice
    How financial institutions analyse risk
 Sources and Perspective of Risk
Sources of Risk

• Project-specific risk
• Competitive risk
• Industry-specific risk
• Market risk
• International risk
 Perspectives on risk
 Perspectives on Risk
 Standalone risk
 This represents the risk of a project when viewed in
isolation
 Firm risk
 This represents corporate risk , contribution of a
project to the risk of the firm
 Market risk
 This represents the risk of a project from the point
of view of a diversified investor
 Measures of Risk

Risk refers to variability. It is a complex and multi-faceted phenomenon.

A variety of measures have been used to capture different facets of risk.
The more important ones are:

• Range
• Standard deviation
• Coefficient of variation
• Semi - variance
 Measures of Risk
 Consider a capital investment whose NPV has
following probability distribution
NPV probability
200 0.3
600 0.5
900 0.2
 Range= 900-200=700
 Standard deviation=[0.3(200-540)2+0.5(600-
500)2+0.2(900-500)2]1/2 =249.8
 Measures of risk
 Variance=( standard deviation)2 = 62400
 Coefficient of variation= standard deviation/Mean
 CV=249.8/540=0.46
 Semi-Variance
 Only negative deviations from mean are considered
 Seems to be more suitable measure of risk as investors
are only concerned with negative variations
 0.3(200-540)2=34680
 Techniques for Risk Analysis

Techniques for Risk

Analysis

Analysis of Stand- Analysis of

Alone Risk Contextual Risk

Sensitivity Scenario Corporate Market Risk

Analysis Analysis Risk Analysis Analysis

Break-even Hillier
Analysis Model

Simulation Decision tree

Analysis Analysis
 Sensitivity analysis
 also called What if analysis
 this analysis measures the effect of change in one
variable on the viability of the project
 One variable (sales or investment or variable costs or
fixed costs) at a time is deviated from the
expected( optimistic ,pessimistic) to study the impact
on the NPV of the project
 It shows how robust or vulnerable a project is to
changes in values of the underlying variables
 If NPV is highly sensitive to changes in some factor,
it may be worthwhile to concentrate more on that
critical factor to make a project success.
 Sensitivity Analysis
( in thousands)
YEAR 0 YEARS 1 - 10
1. INVESTMENT (20,000)
2. SALES 18,000
3. VARIABLE COSTS (2/3 OF SALES) 12,000
4. FIXED COSTS 1,000
5. DEPRECIATION(spread the investment in 10 years) 2,000
6. PRE-TAX PROFIT 3,000
7. TAXES(33.33%) 1,000
8. PROFIT AFTER TAXES 2,000
9. CASH FLOW FROM OPERATION(2000+2000) 4,000
10. NET CASH FLOW(annuity) (20,000) 4,000

NPV = -20,000,000 + 4,000,000(5.650) = 2,600,000 [ PVIFA (r=12%,n=10)

]
RS. IN MILLION
RANGE NPV
KEY VARIABLE PESSIMISTIC EXPECTED OPTIMISTIC PESSIMISTIC EXPECTED OPTIMISTIC
INVESTMENT (RS. IN MILLION) 24 20 18 -0.65 2.60 4.22
SALES (RS. IN MILLION) 15 18 21 -1.17 2.60 6.40
VARIABLE COSTS AS A 70 66.66 65 0.34 2.60 3.73
PERCENT OF SALES
 Scenario analysis
 In real world it is very rare that one variable
varies at a time
 Practically variables tend to move together in a
project
 In normal scenario all variables assume their
expected values, in pessimistic all variables
assume their pessimistic values , and in
optimistic all variables assume their optimistic
values
 It is an improvement over sensitivity analysis as
lot of variations are considered simultaneously
 Scenario Analysis
Procedure
1. Select the factor around which scenarios will be built.
2. Estimate values of each of the variables for each Scenario
3. Calculate NPV / IRR under each scenario
NET PRESENT VALUE FOR THREE SCENARIOS
(RS. IN MILLION)
PESSIMISTIC EXPECTED OPTIMISTIC
INITIAL INVESTMENT 200 200 200
UNIT SELLING PRICE (IN RUPEES) 25 15 40
DEMAND (IN UNITS) 20 40 10
REVENUES 500 600 400
VARIABLE COSTS 240 480(80%) 120(30%)
FIXED COSTS 50 50 50
DEPRECIATION 20 20 20
PRE-TAX PROFIT 190 50 210
TAX @ 50% 95 25 105
PROFIT AFTER TAX 95 25 105
ANNUAL CASH FLOW 115 45 125
PROJECT LIFE 10 YEARS 10 YEARS 10 YEARS

NET PRESENT VALUE (AT A DISCOUNT 377.2 25.9 427.4

RATE OF 15 PERCENT)PVIFA=5.019
 Break –even analysis
 Break even is a point where total revenues =total
cost
 No profit no loss condition
 Costs: Fixed cost, Variable cost
 B.E.P= Fixed cost + Depreciation

Contribution per unit

Where contribution per unit= selling price(p.u)-
variable cost(p.u)
 Tells the manager what level of output or activity is
required before the firm can make a profit
 Break even graph
Sales/Revenue

Total cost

Value
Break-even Point

Fixed Cost

No. of Units
 Break-Even Analysis
• Accounting Break –Even Analysis
Fixed Costs + Depreciation 1000 + 2000
= = Rs. 9 million
Contribution margin ratio 0.333

Cash flow forecast for Naveen’s flour mill project

(‘000)
Year 0 Year 1 - 10
1. Investment (20,000)
2. Sales 18,000
3. Variable costs (66 2/3% of sales) 12,000
4. Fixed costs 1,000
5. Depreciation 2,000
6. Pre-tax profit 3,000
7. Taxes 1,000
8. Profit after taxes 2,000
9. Cash flow from operation 4,000
10. Net cash flow (20,000) 4,000

hence the break even sales is indeed Rs 9 million

 Financial Break-even Analysis

•In accounting break even we tend to estimate ‘ when our

original investment will come back’ but we ignore the time
value of money or the risk that we bear.
•Hence a project that breaks even in accounting terms will
have a negative NPV
•The focus of financial break-even analysis is on NPV and not
on accounting profit. At what level of sales will the project
have a zero NPV?
•So Financial break even focuses on the sales at which NPV=0
 Calculation of Financial Break
Even
 To illustrate how the financial break-even level of
sales is calculated, let us to back to the flour mill
project. The annual cash flow of the project depends
on sales as follows:
 1. Variable costs : 66.67 percent of sales
 2. Contribution : 33.33 percent of sales
 3. Fixed costs : Rs. 1 million
 4. Depreciation : Rs. 2 million
 Lets assume break even sales as y
 Calculation of Financial break
even sales
 Sales= y
 VC=66.67% of y=.6667y
 FC=1
 Depreciation=2
 Pre tax profit= y-.6667y-1-2=.333y-3
 Tax(33.33%)=.3333(.333y-3)
 Post tax profit=[.333y-3]-[.333(.333y-3)]
=.22y-2
 Cash flow=.22y-2+2= .22y
 Calculation of Financial break
even sales
 PV(cash flows)= .22y x PVIFA( 12%,10 years)
= .22yx5.650=1.254y
 A project breaks even in NPV terms when the
present value of cash flows = Initial investment
of Rs20 million ( ie. NPV=0)
 So, 1.254y= 20 million
y=15.95 million
Financial Break even sales are 15.95 million for
the project to have a zero NPV
 SIMULATION ANALYSIS
 Sensitivity tells us the sensitivity of the
criterion of merit (NPV,IRR) to variations in
basic factors and provides information of the
following type: if the quantity produced and
sold decreases by 1%, other things being
equal the NPV falls by 6%. But such
information though useful may not be
adequate for decision making
 The decision maker would like to know the
likelihood of such occurrences
 Simulation analysis
 Simulation analysis helps in developing the
probability profile of a criterion of merit by
randomly combining values of variables which
have a bearing on the chosen criterion
 The variables defined under analysis are:
 Parameters- input variables specified by the
decision maker and held constant over all
simulation runs
 Exogenous or stochastic- input variables which are
outside the control of the decision maker
 Procedure
1)Model the project
 First identify the parameters and the exogenous
variables
 NPV=

2)Specify the values of parameters and the probability

distributions of the exogenous variable
3)Select a value at random ,from the probability
distributions of each of the exogenous variables
 Set up the correspondence between the values of
exogenous variables and random numbers
 Choose some random generating device
 Simulation Analysis
4)Determine the NPV corresponding to the
randomly generated values of exogenous
variables and pre-specified parameter values
5)Repeat the steps (3) and (4) a number of times
to get a large number of simulated NPV
6)Plot the frequency distribution of the NPV
 Obtaining Probability Distributions of Basic Variables

Defining the probability distributions of basic variables is an important

step in simulation. Two approaches may be used for obtaining
probability distributions:

• Portrait approach
• Building block approach
 Portrait Approach

The portrait approach is similar to the portrait method used for

identifying suspects. According to this approach a standard probability
distribution (normal, beta, chi-square, poisson, uniform, exponential,
or any other) is drawn up, usually by a statistician, on the basis of the
judgment expressed by the expert (informant). This is shown to the
expert for his comments. The expert may suggest changes if the
distribution does not conform with his judgment. For example, he may
suggest that the probabilities at the tails should be greater or the
probability of the modal value should be higher. The statistician
modifies the earlier distribution to incorporate the changes suggested
by the expert, till he is satisfied that the probability distribution
represents his judgment well.
 Building Block Approach

In the second approach, the ‘building block’ approach the probability

distribution is defined by the expert. He attempts to quantify his
judgment by a procedure which is as follows: (i) he chooses the range
encompassing possible values; (ii) he divides the range into intervals
which he thinks have different probabilities associated with them; (iii)
he assigns probabilities to these intervals such that pi = 1; (iv) he may
divide intervals into sub-intervals if he feels that the probabilities
within an interval are different; and (v) he continues this process till he
arrives at a distribution which represents his judgment well.

This process often leads to a step rectangular distribution and has the
following advantages (i) the expert has complete freedom in expressing
his judgment; and (ii) it squares well with the principle of using all
available information, no more no less.
Some Probability Distributions
 Problem of Correlation and the Level of
Disaggregation
 In practice, correlations may exist among the distribution of several factors.
When such a dependency exists the factors which are correlated should be
considered together. For this purpose, the joint probability distribution of
correlated factors have to be developed. This adds immensely to the
problem of estimation.

 In this context we must consider the choice relating to the level of

disaggregation. Now the problem is, to which level of detail should we go?
 The choice of the level of aggregation or disaggregation would be finally
based on the trade-off between the advantages of clarity of judgment and the
complexities of disaggregated analysis. Since the influence of correlations is
more significant than that of the shape of any particular distribution, it may
be preferable to limit disaggregation.
 Issues in Applying Simulation

• What should the output be ?

• Is project variability enough?

• How should the extreme values be used ?

• How should the results of simulation be used?

 World Bank’s Experience
It may be instructive here to review the experience of World Bank.
The following are its summary remarks on simulation.

 Simulation is a powerful technique which permits use of a great

deal of information which would otherwise be lost.
 It is a highly efficient medium of communication
 It is not a technique which replaces skilled judgment. On the
contrary, it often requires the use of far more judgment than the
traditional analysis.
 Despite the method’s value, the treatment of correlations between
variables remains a major problem. It is clear that between
variables remains a major problem. It is clear that results can be
completely misleading if correlations are not handled properly.
 Evaluation
An increasingly popular tool of risk analysis, simulation offers certain advantages:
 Its principal strength lies in its versatility. It can handle problems characterised by (a) numerous
exogenous variables following any kind of distribution, and (b) complex interrelationships
among parameters, exogenous variables, and endogenous variables. Such problems often defy
the capabilities of analytical methods.
 It compels the decision maker to explicitly consider the interdependencies and uncertainties
characterising the project.
Simulation , however, is a controversial tool which suffers from several shortcomings.
 It is difficult to model the project and specify the probability distributions of exogenous
variables.
 Simulation is inherently imprecise. It provides a rough approximation of the probability
distribution of net present value ( or any other criterion of merit). Due to its imprecision, the
simulated probability distribution may be misleading when a tail of the distribution is critical.
 A realistic simulation model, likely to be complex, would most probably be constructed by a
management scientist, not the decision maker. The decision maker, lacking understanding of
the model, may not use it.
 To determine the net present value in a simulation run the risk- free discount rate is used. This
is done to avoid prejudging risk which is supposed to be reflected in the dispersion of the
distribution of net present value. Thus the measure of net present value takes a meaning, very
different from its usual one, that is difficult to interpret.
 Decision Tree Analysis

 Decision tree analysis is a tool for analysing situations where sequential

decision making in face of risk is involved.

 The key steps in decision tree analysis are:

1. Identifying the problem and alternatives

2. Delineating the decision tree

3. Specifying probabilities and monetary outcomes

4. Evaluating various decision alternatives

 Decision Tree

The decision tree, exhibiting the anatomy of the decision situation, shows :

  The decision points (also called decision forks) and the alternative options
 available for experimentation and action at these decision points.

  The chance points (also called chance forks) where outcomes are dependent
on a chance process and the likely outcomes at these points.

The decision tree reflects in a diagrammatic form the nature of the decision
situation in terms of alternative courses of action and chance outcomes which have
been identified in the first step of the analysis.

A decision tree can easily become very complex and cumbersome if an attempt is
made to consider the myriad possible future events and decisions. Such a decision
tree, however, is not likely to be a very useful tool of analysis. Over-elaborate, it
may obfuscate the critical issues. Hence an effort should be made to keep the
decision tree somewhat simple so that the decision makers can focus their attention
on major future alternatives without being drowned in a mass of trivia.
 Specification of Probabilities and Monetary Value
of Outcomes

Once the decision tree is delineated, the following data have to be gathered :
 Probabilities associated with each of the possible outcomes at various chance
forks, and
 Monetary value of each combination of decision alternative and chance
outcome.
The probabilities of various outcomes may sometimes be defined objectively. For
example, the probability of a good monsoon may be based on objective, historical
data. More often, however, the possible outcomes encountered in real life are such
that objective probabilities for them cannot be obtained. How can you, for example,
define objectively the probability that a new product like an electric moped will be
successful in the market? In such cases, probabilities have to be necessarily defined
subjectively.
 Evaluation of Alternatives

Once the decision tree is delineated and data about probabilities and monetary values
gathered, decision alternatives may be evaluated as follows :
1. Start at the right-hand end of the tree and calculate the expected monetary value at
various chance points that come first as we proceed leftward.
 
2. Given the expected monetary values of chance points in step 1, evaluate the
alternatives at the final stage decision points in terms of their expected monetary
values.
3. At each of the final stage decision points, select the alternative which has the highest
expected monetary value and truncate the other alternatives. Each decision point is
assigned a value equal to the expected monetary value of the alternative selected at
that decision point.
4. Proceed backward (leftward) in the same manner, calculating the expected monetary
value at chance points, selecting the decision alternative which has the highest
expected monetary value at various decision points, truncating inferior decision
alternatives, and assigning values to decision points, till the first decision point is
reached.
 Vigyanik case

The scientists at Vigyanik have come up with an electric moped. The

firm is ready for pilot production and test marketing. This will cost Rs.20
million and take six months. Management believes that there is a 70
percent chance that the pilot production and test marketing will be
successful. In case of success, Vigyanik can build a plant costing Rs.150
million. The plant will generate an annual cash inflow of Rs.30 million
for 20 years if the demand is high or an annual cash inflow of Rs.20
million if the demand is moderate. High demand has a probability of 0.6;
Moderate demand has a probability of 0.4. To analyse such situations
where sequential decision making is involved decision tree analysis is
helpful.
 Vigyanik Case

C21 : High
demand Annual
cash flow
Probability 30 million
: 0.6
D21:Invest
c2
-Rs 150
million C22 : Moderate Annual
C11 : Success demand cash flow
D2 Probability
Probability 20 million
D11: Carry out pilot
: 0.4
production and : 0.7 D22: Stop
market test c1
-Rs 20
million
C12 : Failure D31: Stop
D1 D3
Probability : 0.3

D12:Do nothing
 Vigyanik Case
The alternatives in the decision tree shown are evaluated as follows:
1. Start at the right-hand end of the tree and calculate the EMV at chance point C 2 that comes
first as we proceed leftward.
EMV(C2) = 0.6 [30xPVIFA (20, 12%)] + 0.4 [20 x PVIFA (20, 12%)]
= Rs.194.2 million
2. Evaluate the EMV of the decision alternatives at D 2 the last stage decision point.
Alternative EMV
D21 (Invest Rs.150 million) Rs.44.2 million
D22 (Stop) 0
3. Select D21 and truncate D22 as EMV(D21) > EMV(D22).
4. Calculate the EMV at chance point C1 that comes next as we roll backwards.
EMV (C1) = 0.7 [44.2] + 0.3 [0] = Rs.30.9 million
5. Evaluate the EMV of the decision alternatives at D 1 the first stage decision point :
Alternative EMV
D11 (Carry out pilot production and
market test at a cost of Rs.20 million) Rs.10.9 million
D12 (Do nothing) 0
Based on the above evaluation, we find that the optimal decision strategy is as follows : Choose D 11
(carry out pilot production and market test) at the decision point D 1 and wait for the outcome at the
chance point C1. If the outcome at C1 is C11 (success), invest Rs.150 million; if the outcome at C 1 is
C (failure) stop.
 Airways Limited Case
Airways Limited has been set up to run an air taxi service in western India. The company is
debating whether it should buy a turboprop aircraft or a piston engine aircraft. The
turboprop aircraft costs 3500 and has a larger capacity. It will serve if the demand turns out
to be high. The piston engine aircraft costs 1800 and has a smaller capacity. It will serve if
the demand is low, but it will not suffice if the demand is high.
The company believes that the chances of demand being high and low in year 1 are 0.6
and 0.4. If the demand is high in year 1, there is an 80 percent chance that it will be high in
subsequent years (year 2 onward) and a 20 percent chance that it will be low in subsequent
years.
The technical director of Airways Limited thinks that if the company buys a piston
engine aircraft now and the demand turns out to be high the company can buy a second-hand
piston engine aircraft for 1400 at the end of year 1. This would double its capacity and
enable it to cope reasonably well with high demand from year 2 onwards.
The payoffs associated with high and low demand for various decision alternatives are
shown in Exhibit 1.1.The payoffs shown for year 1 are the payoffs occurring at the end of
year 1 and the payoffs shown for year 2 are the payoffs for year 2 and the subsequent years,
evaluated as of year 2, using a discount rate of 12 percent which is the weighted average
cost of capital for Airways Limited.
Exhibit 1.1 Decision Tree Year 1
Year 2
High demand
(0.8) 7000
High demand (0.6)
C2 Low demand
1000 (0.2)
1000

C1
High demand
Turboprop
(0.4)
- 4000
7000
Low demand (0.4)
C3 Low demand
200 (0.6)
600
High demand
(0.8)
6000
Low demand
D1 C5
(0.2)
High demand Expand
- 1400 600
(0.6)
D2 High demand
500 (0.8)
Do not
expand 2500
Piston engine
C6 Low demand
- 1800 (0.2)
800
C High demand
4 (0.2)
2500
Low demand (0.4)
C7 Low demand
300 (0.8)
800
 Airways Limited Solution
If Airways Limited buys the turboprop aircraft, there are no further decisions to be made. So, the NPV of the
turboprop aircraft can be calculated by simply discounting the expected cash flows:
0.6 (1000) + 0.4 (200)
NPV = - 4000 +
(1.12)
0.6 [ 0.8 (7000) + 0.2 (1000) ] + 0.4 [ 0.4 (7000) + 0.6 (600) ]
+ = 389
(1.12) 2

If Airways Limited buys the piston engine aircraft and the demand in year 1 turns out to be high, a further
decision has to be made with respect to capacity expansion. To evaluate the piston engine aircraft, proceed as
follows:
First, calculate the NPV of the two options viz., ‘expand’ and ‘do no expand’ at decision point D2:
0.8(6000) + 0.2 (600)
Expand: NPV = - 1400 = 2993
1.12
0.8 (2500) + 0.2 (800)
Do not expand: NPV = = 1929
1.12
Second, truncate the ‘do not expand’ option as it is inferior to the ‘expand’ option. This means that the NPV at
decision point D2 will be 2923.
Third, calculate the NPV of the piston engine aircraft option.
0.6 (500 + 2923) + 0.4 (300) 0.4 [0.2 (2500) + 0.8 (800)]
NPV = - 1800 + + = 505
(1.12) (1.12)2
Since the NPV of the piston engine aircraft (505) is greater than the NPV of the turboprop aircraft (389), the
former is a better bet. So the recommended strategy for Airways Limited is to invest in the piston engine
aircraft at decision point D1 and, if the demand in year 1 turns out to be high, expand capacity by buying
another piston engine aircraft:
Value of the Option Note that if Airways Limited does not have the option of expanding capacity at
the end of year 1, the NPV of the piston engine aircraft option would be:
0.6 (500) + 0.4 (300)
NPV = - 1800 +
(1.12)
0.6 [0.8 (2500) + 0.2 (800)] + 0.4 [0.2 (2500) + 0.8 (800)]
+ = 28
(1.12)2
Thus, the option to expand has a value of: 505 – 39 = 466.
Option to Abandon So far we assumed that Airways Limited will continue operations irrespective
of the state of demand. Let us now introduce the possibility of abandoning the operation and
disposing off the aircraft at the end of year 1, should it be profitable to do so. Suppose after 1 year
of use the turboprop aircraft can be sold for 3600 and the piston-engine aircraft for 1400.

If the demand in year 1 turns out to be low, the payoffs for ‘continuation’ and ‘abandonment’ as
of year 1 are as follows.
Turboprop Aircraft Piston Engine Aircraft
Continuation : 0.4 (7000) + 0.6(600) Continuation : 0.2(2500) + 0.8 (800)
= 3160/(1.12) =2821 = 1140/(1.12) = 1018
Abandonment : 3600 Abandonment : 1400

Thus in both the cases it makes sense to sell off the aircraft after year 1, if the demand in year 1
turns out to be low.

The revised decision tree, taking into account the abandonment options, is shown in Exhibit 1.2.
Exhibit 1.2 Decision Tree Year 1 Year 2

High demand
(0.8)
7000
High demand (0.6)
Low demand
1000
(0.2)
1000
C
Turboprop 1

- 4000 Low demand (0.4)

Sell Turboprop for
200 3600

High demand
D1 (0.8)
6000

High demand Low demand

Expand
(0.6) - 1400 (0.2)
600
High demand
500 Do not (0.8)
expand 2500

Piston engine
Low demand
- 1800 (0.2)
800

Low demand (0.4)

Sell Piston engine
300 for 1400
Given the decision tree with abandonment possibilities, let us calculate the NPV of the
turboprop aircraft and the piston engine aircraft.

0.6 [1000 + {0.8(7000) + 0.2 (1000)}/(1.12)] + 0.4 (200 + 3600)

NPV (Turboprop) = -4000 +
(1.12)
= 667

0.6 (500 + 2993) + 0.4 (300 + 1400)

NPV (Piston engine) = -1800 + = 678
(1.12)
Note that the possibility of abandonment increases the NPV of the Turboprop aircraft
from 389 to 667. This means that the value of the option to abandon is:

Value of abandonment option = NPV with abandonment - NPV without abandonment

= 667 - 389 = 278

For the piston engine aircraft the possibility of abandonment increases the NPV from 505
to 678. Hence the value of the abandonment option is 173.
 Corporate Risk Analysis

• A project’s corporate risk is its contribution to the overall risk of the

firm.

• On a stand-alone basis a project may be very risky but if its returns

are not highly correlated – or, even better, negatively correlated - with
the returns on the other projects of the firm, its corporate risk tends to
be low.
 Managing Risk

• Fixed and variable cost

• Pricing strategy
• Sequential investment
• Improving information
• Financial leverage
• Insurance
• Long-term arrangements
• Strategic alliance
• Derivatives
 Project Selection Under Risk

• Judgmental Evaluation

• Payback Period Requirement

• Risk Adjusted Discount Rate

• Certainty Equivalent Method

 Risk Analysis in Practice

• Conservative Estimation of Revenues

• Safety Margin in Cost Figures

• Flexible Investment Yardsticks

• Acceptable Overall Certainty Index

• Judgment on three Point Estimates

 Relative Importance of Various Methods of
Assessing Project Risk
A survey of corporate finance practices in India found the relative
importance of various methods of assessing project risk to be as
follows:
% of companies rating it as
very important or important
• Sensitivity analysis 90.10
• Scenario analysis 61.60
• Risk-adjusted discount rate 31.70
• Decision tree analysis 12.20
• Monte Carlo simulation 8.20
Source : Manoj Anand “Corporate Finance Practices in India: A Survey”. Vikalpa,
October –December 2000.
 How Financial Institutions Analyse Risk

To evaluate the risk dimensions of a project financial institutions

calculate several indicators, the most important ones being the break
even point, the debt service coverage ratio, and the fixed assets coverage
ratio. In addition, they carry out sensitivity analysis.

The break-even point for a project is calculated with reference to the

year when the project is expected to reach its target(or expected) level of
capacity utilisation, which is usually the third or the fourth operating
year. Further, it is calculated in terms of capacity utilisation. So it is
called break-even point capacity utilisation (BEPCU).
 SUMMARY
 Risk is inherent in almost every business decision. More so in capital budgeting
decisions as they involve costs and benefits extending over a long period of time during
which many things can change in unanticipated ways.
 Investment proposals, however, differ in risk. A research and development project is
typically more risky than an expansion project and the latter tends to be more risky than
replacement project.
 The variety of techniques developed to handle risk in capital budgeting fall into two
broad categories : (i) approaches that consider the stand-alone risk of a project
(sensitivity analysis, scenario analysis, break-even analysis, Hillier model, simulation
analysis, and decision tree analysis). (ii) approaches that consider the contextual risk of
a project (corporate risk analysis and market risk analysis).
 Sensitivity analysis or “what if” analysis answers questions like: “What happens to
NPV or IRR if sales decline by 5 per cent or 10 per cent from their expected level ?”
 In sensitivity analysis, typically one variable is varied at a time. If variables are inter-
related, as they are most likely to be, it is helpful to look at implications of some
plausible scenarios, each scenario representing a consistent combination of variables.
Firms often do another kind of scenario analysis called the best case and worst case
analysis.
 As a financial manager, you would be interested in knowing how much should be
produced and sold at a minimum to ensure that the project does not ‘lose money’. Such
an exercise is called break-even analysis and the minimum quantity at which loss is
avoided is called the break-even point. The beak-even point may be defined in
accounting terms or financial terms.

 Under certain circumstances, the expected NPV and the standard deviation of NPV may
be obtained through analytical derivation; as proposed by H.S. Hillier.
 Sensitivity analysis indicates the sensitivity of the criterion of merit (NPV, IRR or any
other) to variations in basic factors. Though useful, such information may not be
adequate for decision making. The decision maker would also like to know the
likelihood of such occurrences. This information can be generated by simulation
analysis which may be used for developing the probability profile of a criterion of merit
by randomly combining values of variables that have a bearing on the chosen criterion.

 Decision tree analysis is a useful tool for analysing sequential decisions in the face of
risk. The key steps in decision tree analysis are : (i) identification of the problem and
alternatives. (ii) delineation of the decision tree. (iii) specification of probabilities and
monetary outcomes. (iv) evaluation of various decision alternatives
 A project’s corporate risk is its contribution to the overall risk of the firm. Put
differently, it reflects the impact of the project on the risk profile of the firm’s total
cash flows. On a stand-alone basis a project may be very risky but if its returns are
not highly correlated – or, even better, negatively correlated – with the returns on
the other projects of the firm, its corporate risk tends to be low.
 Aware of the benefits of portfolio diversification, many firms consciously pursue a
strategy of diversification. The logic of corporate diversification for reducing risk,
however, has been questioned. Why should a firm diversify when shareholders can
reduce risk through personal diversification? There does not seem to be an easy
answer.
 Once information about expected return (measured as NPV or IRR or some other
criterion of merit) and variability of return (measured in terms of range or standard
deviation or some other risk index) has been gathered, the next question is, should
the project be accepted or rejected. There are several ways of incorporating risk in
the decision process : judgmental evaluation, payback period requirement, risk-
adjusted discount rate method, and the certainty equivalent method.
 Often managers look at risk and return characteristics of a project and decide
judgmentally whether the project should be accepted or rejected. Although
judgmental decision making may appear highly subjective or haphazard, this is
how most of us make important decisions in our personal life.
 In many situations companies use NPV or IRR as the principal selection criterion,
but apply a payback period requirement to control for risk. If an investment is
considered more risky, a shorter payback period is required.
 Under the risk profile method, the probability distribution of NPV, an absolute
measure, is transformed into the probability distribution of profitability index, a
relative measure. Then, the dispersion of the profitability index is compared with
the maximum risk profile acceptable to management for the expected profitability
index of the project.
 The risk-adjusted discount rate method calls for adjusting the discount rate to
reflect project risk. If the project risk is same as the risk of the existing investments
of the firm, the discount rate used is the WACC of the firm; if the project risk is
greater (lesser) than the existing investments of the firm, the discount rate used is
higher (lower) than the WACC of the firm.
 Under the certainty equivalent method, the expected cash flows of the project are
converted into their certainty equivalents by applying suitable certainty equivalent
coefficients. Then, the risk-free rate is applied for discounting purposes.
 The analysis of risk factor in practice can be improved if the probability
distributions of the key factors underlying an investment project are developed and
information is communicated in that form.