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2.2 INOGATE - Software For Consequence Modelling

This document discusses software tools for consequence modeling of pipeline accidents. It describes how consequence modeling can simulate the physical effects of an accident like an explosion or gas release. It also outlines some of the key components of consequence modeling like dispersion, fires, explosions, and toxicity. The document then reviews several specific consequence modeling software packages, including PHAST from DNVGL and ALOHA from the EPA. It provides examples of modeling results from PHAST and ALOHA and compares their predictions. Finally, it briefly discusses computational fluid dynamics as an alternative modeling approach with both strengths and weaknesses compared to empirical software.

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Vesko Ilijazi
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191 views25 pages

2.2 INOGATE - Software For Consequence Modelling

This document discusses software tools for consequence modeling of pipeline accidents. It describes how consequence modeling can simulate the physical effects of an accident like an explosion or gas release. It also outlines some of the key components of consequence modeling like dispersion, fires, explosions, and toxicity. The document then reviews several specific consequence modeling software packages, including PHAST from DNVGL and ALOHA from the EPA. It provides examples of modeling results from PHAST and ALOHA and compares their predictions. Finally, it briefly discusses computational fluid dynamics as an alternative modeling approach with both strengths and weaknesses compared to empirical software.

Uploaded by

Vesko Ilijazi
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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PIPELINE QRA SEMINAR

PIPELINE RISK ASSESSMENT


SOFTWARE FOR CONSEQUENCE
MODELLING

2
SOFTWARE FOR CONSEQUENCE MODELLING

What is consequence modelling?

• Effects from accident (e.g. release or explosion)

• Strict physical effect (e.g. overpressure from explosion,

flow from release and concentration at distance)

• Overall effect on human safety (e.g. injuries from

overpressure or injuries from toxic concentration)

3
SOFTWARE FOR CONSEQUENCE MODELLING

• What is included in consequence modelling?

-Dispersion (gas)

-Vaporization and dispersion (liquid to gas)

-Release (flow – liquid and gas)

-Explosion (overpressure)

-Jet fire/pool fire (extent and thermal radiation)

-Toxicity (gas)

-Smoked and gas ingress (buildings)

-Structural integrity

-Domino effects (e.g. BLEVE)

4
SOFTWARE FOR CONSEQUENCE MODELLING

• Specialized software (specific consequence model) versus

software packages (several consequence models)

• Somewhat a question of wanted level of detail (e.g. urban

area or rural area and topography)

• Method depending on the situation (e.g. complexity, stage of

project and time)

• Economical and technological aspects (e.g. costs for license

and knowledge of the software)

• No single best software to solve all problems

5
SOFTWARE FOR CONSEQUENCE MODELLING

• Different methods and philosophy for consequence

modelling

• Empirical consequence models (based on experiments)

versus CFD models (advanced numerical calculations)

6
SOFTWARE FOR CONSEQUENCE MODELLING

• Different methods and philosophy for consequence


PHAST from DNVGL
modelling
Canary from QUEST

• Software established by consultant companies, EFFECTS from TNO


authorities, companies (e.g. oil and gas industry and
TRACE from Safer Systems
process industry) and software companies
FRED from Shell
• All of the software listed to the right is empirical
ALOHA from EPA
consequence models

7
SOFTWARE: PHAST

• Software package from DNVGL

- Discharge and dispersion models

- Flammability models (e.g. radiation effects from jet fires,

pool fires and fireballs)

- Explosion models

- Models for the toxic hazards (e.g. indoor and outdoor

toxic dose)

• Continuously developed for over 30 years

• Used frequently in the oil- and gas industry (e.g. BP,

Total, Maersk and Shell)

8
SOFTWARE: PHAST

Strengths of PHAST

• All-round

• Simple (i.e. easy to learn)

• Possibility to connect to SAFETI (QRA software)

Weaknesses of PHAST

• Limitations in congested areas

• Limitations in urban areas (i.e. obstacles and topography)

9
SOFTWARE: PHAST

10
EXAMPLE OF PHAST

Ringsted, Denmark

- 30’’ gas pipeline

- 80 bar

- shopping centre at 100 meters

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EXAMPLE OF PHAST

- Jetfire (blue - radiation 4 kw/m2 – injuries from short

exposure) – 130 meter

- Jetfire (green - radiation 12.5 kw/m2 – fatalities from

medium exposure) – 100 meter

- Jetfire (yellow - radiation 37.5 kw/m2 – fatalities from

short exposure) – 70 meter

12
EXAMPLE OF PHAST

- Flashfire (green - LEL) – 100 meter

- Flashfire (blue - ½ LEL) – 230 meter

13
SOFTWARE: ALOHA

• Software (free) from EPA in USA

-Discharge and dispersion models

-Flammability models (e.g. radiation effects from jet fires,

pool fires and fireballs)

-Explosion models

-Models for the toxic hazards (e.g. indoor and outdoor toxic

dose)

• Part of the CAMEO software package (i.e. tools for

emergency planning)

14
EXAMPLE OF ALOHA

- Jetfire (blue - radiation 4 kw/m2 – injuries from short

exposure) – 80 meter

- Jetfire (green - radiation 12.5 kw/m2 – fatalities from

medium exposure) – 40 meter

- Jetfire (yellow - radiation 37.5 kw/m2 – fatalities from

short exposure) – 30 meter

15
EXAMPLE OF ALOHA

- Flashfire (green - LEL) – 340 meter

- Flashfire (blue – ½ LEL) – 500 meter

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SOFTWARE: CFD

• Short for: computational fluid dynamics

• Not a specific software (i.e. group of software)

-CFX CFD from ANSYS

• Uses numerical methods and algorithms to solve and

analyse problems that involve fluid/gas flows

• Could be applicable for wide range of problems

17
SOFTWARE: CFD

• Could be applicable for wide range of problems

- Aerodynamics (e.g. aircrafts and cars)

- Hydrodynamics (e.g. ships)

- Power plants (e.g. combustion in gas turbines)

- Process equipment (e.g. flows and loads)

- Process equipment (e.g. heat transfer and cooling)

- Marine structures (e.g. loads)

- Environment (e.g. exhaust and dispersion)

- Hydrology (e.g. flows in rivers and flooding)

- Buildings (e.g. ventilation)

18
SOFTWARE: CFD

19
SOFTWARE: CFD

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SOFTWARE: CFD

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SOFTWARE: CFD

Strengths of CFD

• Applicable for complex situations (e.g. urban areas and

topography)

Weaknesses of CFD

• Resources (e.g. man-hours, knowledge and economy)

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COMPARISON OF CONSEQUENCE MODELLING

Method Distance to LEL Distance to ½ LEL


Hand calculations 130 meter (size of fireball)
PHAST 100 meter 230 meter
ALOHA 340 meter 500 meter

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COMPARISON OF CONSEQUENCE MODELLING

Method Distance to 4 kW/m2 Distance to 12.5 kW/m2 Distance to 37.5 kW/m2


Hand calculations 100 meter (size of flame)
PHAST 130 meter 100 meter 70 meter
ALOHA 80 meter 40 meter 30 meter

24
QUESTIONS?

25

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