3-1 Forecasting

Operations Management

William J. Stevenson

8th edition
3-2 Forecasting

FORECASTING
3-3 Forecasting

FORECAST:
 A statement about the future value of a variable of interest such
as demand.
 Forecasts affect decisions and activities throughout an
organization
 Accounting, finance
 Human resources
 Marketing
 MIS
 Operations
 Product / service design
3-4 Forecasting

Uses of Forecasts

Accounting Cost/profit estimates

Finance Cash flow and funding

Human Resources Hiring/recruiting/training

Marketing Pricing, promotion, strategy

MIS IT/IS systems, services

Operations Schedules, MRP, workloads

Product/service design New products and services

3-5 Forecasting

 Assumes causal system

past ==> future
 Forecasts rarely perfect because of randomness
 Forecasts more accurate for
groups vs. individuals
 Forecast accuracy decreases
as time horizon increases
I see that you will
get an A this semester.
3-6 Forecasting

Elements of a Good Forecast

Timely

Reliable Accurate

l s e
g fu u
i n Written to
n s y
a
M
e Ea
3-7 Forecasting

Steps in the Forecasting Process

“The forecast”

Step 6 Monitor the forecast

Step 5 Prepare the forecast
Step 4 Gather and analyze data
Step 3 Select a forecasting technique
Step 2 Establish a time horizon
Step 1 Determine purpose of forecast
3-8 Forecasting

Types of Forecasts

 Judgmental - uses subjective inputs

 Time series - uses historical data
assuming the future will be like the past
 Associative models - uses explanatory
variables to predict the future
3-9 Forecasting

Judgmental Forecasts

 Executive opinions
 Sales force opinions
 Consumer surveys
 Outside opinion
 Delphi method
 Opinions of managers and staff
 Achieves a consensus forecast
3-10 Forecasting

Time Series Forecasts

 Trend - long-term movement in data

 Seasonality - short-term regular variations in
data
 Cycle – wavelike variations of more than one
year’s duration
 Irregular variations - caused by unusual
circumstances
 Random variations - caused by chance
3-11 Forecasting

Forecast Variations
Figure 3.1

Irregular
variation

Trend

Cycles

90
89
88
Seasonal variations
3-12 Forecasting

Naive Forecasts

Uh, give me a minute....

We sold 250 wheels last
week.... Now, next week
we should sell....

The forecast for any period equals

the previous period’s actual value.
3-13 Forecasting

Naïve Forecasts

 Simple to use
 Virtually no cost

 Quick and easy to prepare

 Data analysis is nonexistent

 Easily understandable

 Cannot provide high accuracy

 Can be a standard for accuracy

3-14 Forecasting

Uses for Naïve Forecasts

 Stable time series data

 F(t) = A(t-1)
 Seasonal variations
 F(t) = A(t-n)
 Data with trends
 F(t) = A(t-1) + (A(t-1) – A(t-2))
3-15 Forecasting

Techniques for Averaging

 Moving average
 Weighted moving average
 Exponential smoothing
3-16 Forecasting

Moving Averages

 Moving average – A technique that averages a

number of recent actual values, updated as new
values become available.
n

 A i
MAn = i=1

n
 Weighted moving average – More recent values in a
series are given more weight in computing the
forecast.
3-17 Forecasting

Moving Averages

 Moving average –
n

 A i
MAn = i=1

n
Period Sales Average Forecast for next period
1 40
2 41
3 42 123/3 41
4 ?
5 ?
6 ?
3-18 Forecasting

Moving Averages

 Moving average – n

 A i
MAn = i=1

n
Period Sales Average Forecast for next period Actual
1 40 41
2 41 42
3 42 123/3 41 42
4 42
5 ?
6 ?
3-19 Forecasting

Moving Averages

 Moving average – n

 A i
MAn = i=1

n
Period Sales Average Forecast for next period Actual
1 40 41
2 41 42
3 42 123/3 41 42
4 42 125/3 41.67 44
5 44
6 ?
3-20 Forecasting

Moving Averages

 Moving average – n

 A i
MAn = i=1

n
Period Sales Average Forecast for next period Actual
1 40 41
2 41 42
3 42 123/3 41 42
4 42 125/3 41.67 44
5 44 128/3 42.67 43
6 ?
3-21 Forecasting

Moving Averages

 Moving average – n

 A i
MAn = i=1

n
Period Sales Average Forecast for next period Actual
1 40 41
2 41 42
3 42 123/3 41 42
4 42 125/3 41.67 44
5 44 128/3 42.67 43
6 43 129/3 43 43
3-22 Forecasting

Simple Moving Average

Actual
MA5
47
45
43
41
39
37
MA3
35
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
n

 Ai
MAn = i=1

n
3-23 Forecasting

Weighted Moving Averages

n
 Weighted Moving average –
 A*w i
WMAn= i=1

Period Sales Weight Result Forecast Actual

1 40 20%
2 41 30%
3 42 50%
4 ?
5 ?
6 ?
3-24 Forecasting

Weighted Moving Averages

n
 Weighted Moving average –
 A*w i
WMAn= i=1

Period Sales Weight Result Forecast Actual

1 40 20% 8
2 41 30% 12.3
3 42 50% 21 41.3 42
4 ?
5 ?
6 ?
3-25 Forecasting

Weighted Moving Averages

n
 Weighted Moving average –
 A*w i
WMAn= i=1

Period Sales Weight Result Forecast Actual

1 40
2 41 20% 8.2
3 42 30% 12.6
4 42 50% 21 41.8 44
5 ?
6 ?
3-26 Forecasting

Weighted Moving Averages

n
 Weighted Moving average –
 A*w i
WMAn= i=1

Period Sales Weight Result Forecast Actual

1 40
2 41
3 42 20% 8.4
4 42 30% 12.6
5 44 50% 22 43 43
6 ?
3-27 Forecasting

Weighted Moving Averages

n
 Weighted Moving average –
 A*w i
WMAn= i=1

Period Sales Weight Result Forecast Actual

1 40
2 41
3 42
4 42 20% 8.4
5 44 30% 13.2
6 43 50% 21.5 43.1 43
3-28 Forecasting

Exponential Smoothing

Ft = Ft-1 + (At-1 - Ft-1)

• Premise--The most recent observations might
have the highest predictive value.
 Therefore, we should give more weight to the
more recent time periods when forecasting.
3-29 Forecasting

Exponential Smoothing

Ft = Ft-1 + (At-1 - Ft-1)

 Weighted averaging method based on previous
forecast plus a percentage of the forecast error
 A-F is the error term,  is the % feedback
3-30 Forecasting

Exponential Smoothing

Ft = Ft-1 + (At-1 - Ft-1)

 Ft = Next Period
 Ft-1= Previous Period
 Smoothing Constant
 At-1 = Actual Result Previous
Period
3-31 Forecasting

Exponential Smoothing - Problem

Ft = Ft-1 + (At-1 - Ft-1)

Ft = Result of formula
Ft-1= 42
Smoothing = .10
At-1 = 44
3-32 Forecasting

Exponential Smoothing - Problem

Ft = Ft-1 + (At-1 - Ft-1)

Ft = 42 + .10(44-42)
Ft = 42 + .10(2)
Ft = 42 + .20
Ft = 42.20
3-33 Forecasting

Exponential Smoothing - Problem

Ft = Ft-1 + (At-1 - Ft-1)

Ft = 43 + .10(42.20-43)
Ft = 43 + .10(-.80)
Ft = 43 + -.080
Ft = 42.92
3-34 Forecasting

Example 3 - Exponential Smoothing

Period Actual Alpha = 0.1 Error Alpha = 0.4 Error

1 42
2 40 42 -2.00 42 -2
3 43 41.8 1.20 41.2 1.8
4 40 41.92 -1.92 41.92 -1.92
5 41 41.73 -0.73 41.15 -0.15
6 39 41.66 -2.66 41.09 -2.09
7 46 41.39 4.61 40.25 5.75
8 44 41.85 2.15 42.55 1.45
9 45 42.07 2.93 43.13 1.87
10 38 42.36 -4.36 43.88 -5.88
11 40 41.92 -1.92 41.53 -1.53
12 41.73 40.92
3-35 Forecasting

Picking a Smoothing Constant

Actual
50
.4
.1
45
Demand

40

35
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Period
3-36 Forecasting

Common Nonlinear Trends

Figure 3.5

Parabolic

Exponential

Growth
3-37 Forecasting

Linear Trend Equation

Ft

Ft = a + bt

 Ft = Forecast for period t 0 1 2 3 4 5 t

 t = Specified number of time periods
 a = Value of Ft at t = 0
 b = Slope of the line
3-38 Forecasting

Calculating a and b

n  (ty) -  t  y
b =
n t 2 - (  t) 2

 y - b t
a =
n
3-39 Forecasting

Linear Trend Equation Example

t y
2
W eek t S a le s ty
1 1 150 150
2 4 157 314
3 9 162 486
4 16 166 664
5 25 177 885

2
 t = 15  t = 55  y = 812  ty = 2 4 9 9
2
(  t) = 2 2 5
3-40 Forecasting

Linear Trend Calculation

5 (2499) - 15(812) 12495-12180

b = = = 6.3
5(55) - 225 275 -225

812 - 6.3(15)
a = = 143.5
5

y = 143.5 + 6.3t
3-41 Forecasting

Associative Forecasting

 Predictor variables - used to predict values of

variable interest
 Regression - technique for fitting a line to a set
of points
 Least squares line - minimizes sum of squared
deviations around the line
3-42 Forecasting

Linear Model Seems Reasonable

X Y Computed
7 15
relationship
2 10
6 13 50

4 15 40

14 25 30

15 27 20

16 24
10

0
12 20 0 5 10 15 20 25

14 27
20 44
15 34
7 17
A straight line is fitted to a set of sample points.
3-43 Forecasting

Forecast Accuracy

 Error - difference between actual value and predicted

value
 Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)
 Average absolute error
 Mean Squared Error (MSE)
 Average of squared error
 Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE)
 Average absolute percent error
3-44 Forecasting

MAD, MSE, and MAPE

 Actual  forecast
MAD =
n
2
 ( Actual  forecast)
MSE =
n -1

 Actual  forecas / Actual*100)

MAPE =
t
n
3-45 Forecasting

Example 10

Period Actual Forecast (A-F) |A-F| (A-F)^2 (|A-F|/Actual)*100

1 217 215 2 2 4 0.92
2 213 216 -3 3 9 1.41
3 216 215 1 1 1 0.46
4 210 214 -4 4 16 1.90
5 213 211 2 2 4 0.94
6 219 214 5 5 25 2.28
7 216 217 -1 1 1 0.46
8 212 216 -4 4 16 1.89
-2 22 76 10.26

MAD= 2.75
MSE= 10.86
MAPE= 1.28
3-46 Forecasting

Controlling the Forecast

 Control chart
 A visual tool for monitoring forecast errors
 Used to detect non-randomness in errors

 Forecasting errors are in control if

 All errors are within the control limits
 No patterns, such as trends or cycles, are
present
3-47 Forecasting

Sources of Forecast errors

 Model may be inadequate

 Irregular variations

 Incorrect use of forecasting technique

3-48 Forecasting

Tracking Signal

•Tracking signal
–Ratio of cumulative error to MAD

Tracking signal =
(Actual-forecast)
MAD
Bias – Persistent tendency for forecasts to be
Greater or less than actual values.
3-49 Forecasting

Choosing a Forecasting Technique

 No single technique works in every situation

 Two most important factors
 Cost
 Accuracy

 Other factors include the availability of:

 Historical data
 Computers

 Time needed to gather and analyze the data

 Forecast horizon
3-50 Forecasting

Exponential Smoothing
3-51 Forecasting

Linear Trend Equation

3-52 Forecasting

Simple Linear Regression

3-53 Forecasting

Workload/Scheduling

SSU9
United Airlines example