Advanced NDE

OVERVIEW

Krishnan Balasubramaniam
MOTIVATION
 COURSE OUTLINE

Week 1 • Relevance of NDT in industries, Basics methods of NDT,

Statistics and Reliability for NDT

Week 2 • Digital Signals and Data Analysis for NDT.

• Basics of acoustic wave modes, Wave equation in acoustic

Week 3 and elastic media, Christoffel equations, reflection,

refraction, mode conversion, diffraction and scattering of
ultrasonic waves in isotropic and anisotropic media.
 COURSE OUTLINE

Week 4 • Methods of contact and non-contact generation and

reception of ultrasound. Recent techniques in ultrasonic
testing like Time of Flight Diffraction, …

• Synthetic Aperture Focusing Technique, Phased and

Week 5 Sampled Array Ultrasound, Guided Waves with

applications.
• PROJECT TITLES TO BE DECIDED AND GROUPS FORMED

• Basics of Electromagnetic NDT, Maxwell’s Equations,

Week 6 Derivation of flux potential for eddy current inspection

technique, skin depth effects, lift off effects and
compensation,.
 COURSE OUTLINE
• Low frequency and Remote Field Eddy Current

Week 7 Techniques, Pulsed Eddy Current Technique, Microwave

field equations, reflection, refraction, mode conversion,
diffraction and scattering of electromagnetic waves

Week 8
• Microwave instrumentation, applications of Eddy
Current and Microwave NDT.
• MID SEMESTER EXAM

• Basics of Thermal Imaging, active and passive methods,

Week 9 diffusion of thermal waves in isotropic and anisotropic

materials. Infra-red detectors and systems.
Applications.
 COURSE OUTLINE

Week 10 • Fundamentals of Radiograpy, Types of

sources and detectors

• Tomography and Laminography Algorithms

Week 11 for slice and volume reconstruction.
Automatic Defect Recognition algorithms.

• Optical Methods of NDT, Hybrid techniques

Week 12 in NDT, Sono-therm, Eddy-therm. NDE
sensors for process monitoring.
 COURSE OUTLINE

• Application of NDT Methods

Week 13 to Nuclear Power Plants

Week 14 • PROJECT PRESENTATIONS.

Week 15 • PROJECT PRESENTATIONS

 ADVANCED NDE
WEEK 1
Relevance of NDT in industries, Basic methods of NDE

INSTRUCTOR: Krishnan Balasubramaniam

CAN WE DO THIS???....Always??
 Non-Destructive Evaluation (NDE)
• Non-destructive means of making
measurements that has relevance to the
material state and/or process parameters.
• Without decreasing the performance
capability.
Safety

Reliability Productivity
 When are NDE Methods Used?
DESIGN, PRODUCTION, DEPLOYMENT, INSERVICE

–To assist in product development

–To screen or sort incoming materials
–To monitor, improve or control
manufacturing processes
–To verify proper processing such as heat
treating
–To verify proper assembly
–To inspect for in-service damage
Expanding Role of NDE
 What are Some Uses
of NDE Methods?
• Flaw Detection and Evaluation
• Leak Detection
• Location Determination
• Dimensional Measurements Fluorescent penetrant indication

• Structure and Microstructure Characterization

• Estimation of Mechanical and Physical Properties
• Stress (Strain) and Dynamic Response Measurements
• Material Sorting and Chemical Composition
Determination
 What & WHY?
• Flaws • Improve Safety
• Material Properties • Increase Performance
• Process Properties • Residual Life
• Structural Properties Assessment
• Enhance Productivity
• Re-engineering
• Security Information
 NDE for Flaws
• Cracks • Detect
• Voids • Locate
• Corrosion • Characterize
• Delamination • Size
• Disbonds • Evaluate Criticality.
• Material Variations

Quantitative and Verifiable Information

 Nondestructive Evaluation

Excitation
Source
Input Transducer

Test
Specimen
Output Transducer

Signal Inverse
Conditioning Model
 Methods of NDT

Visual
Visual Inspection
Most basic and common
inspection method.

Tools include
fiberscopes,
borescopes, magnifying
glasses and mirrors.

Portable video inspection

unit with zoom allows
inspection of large tanks
and vessels, railroad tank
cars, sewer lines.
Robotic crawlers permit
observation in hazardous or
tight areas, such as air
ducts, reactors, pipelines.
 Liquid Penetrant Inspection
• A liquid with high surface wetting characteristics
is applied to the surface of the part and allowed
time to seep into surface breaking defects.
• The excess liquid is removed from the surface
of the part.
• A developer (powder) is applied to pull the
trapped penetrant out the defect and spread it
on the surface where it can be seen.
• Visual inspection is the final step in the
process. The penetrant used is often loaded
with a fluorescent dye and the inspection is
done under UV light to increase test
sensitivity.
 Magnetic Particle Inspection
The part is magnetized. Finely milled iron particles coated with a dye
pigment are then applied to the specimen. These particles are
attracted to magnetic flux leakage fields and will cluster to form an
indication directly over the discontinuity. This indication can be
visually detected under proper lighting conditions.
Magnetic Particle Crack Indications
 Radiography
The radiation used in radiography
testing is a higher energy (shorter
High Electrical Potential
wavelength) version of the
electromagnetic waves that we
see as visible light. The radiation can Electrons
come from an X-ray generator or a + -
radioactive source.
X-ray Generator
or Radioactive
Source Creates
Radiation

Radiation
Penetrate
the Sample

Exposure Recording Device

 Eddy Current Testing

Coil's
Coil magnetic field

Eddy current's
magnetic field
Eddy
currents

Conductive
material
 Eddy Current Testing
Eddy current testing is particularly well suited for detecting surface
cracks but can also be used to make electrical conductivity and
coating thickness measurements. Here a small surface probe is
scanned over the part surface in an attempt to detect a crack.
 Ultrasonic Imaging
High resolution images can be produced by plotting signal strength or
time-of-flight using a computer-controlled scanning system.

Gray scale image produced using Gray scale image produced using the
the sound reflected from the front sound reflected from the back surface
surface of the coin of the coin (inspected from “heads” side)
 Common Application of NDT
• Inspection of Raw Products
• Inspection Following
Secondary Processing
• In-Services Damage Inspection
 Inspection of Raw Products
• Forgings,
• Castings,
• Extrusions,
• etc.
 Inspection Following
Secondary Processing
• Machining
• Welding
• Grinding
• Heat treating
• Plating
• etc.
 Inspection For
In-Service Damage
• Cracking
• Corrosion
• Erosion/Wear
• Heat Damage
• etc.
Power Plant Inspection
Periodically, power plants are
shutdown for inspection.
Inspectors feed eddy current
probes into heat exchanger
tubes to check for corrosion
damage.

Pipe with damage Probe

Signals produced
by various
amounts of
corrosion
thinning.
 Wire Rope Inspection
Electromagnetic devices and visual
inspections are used to find broken
wires and other damage to the wire
rope that is used in chairlifts, cranes
and other lifting devices.
 Storage Tank Inspection
Robotic crawlers use
ultrasound to inspect the
walls of large above
ground tanks for signs of
thinning due to corrosion.

Cameras on long
articulating arms
are used to inspect
underground
storage tanks for
damage.
 Aircraft Inspection
• Nondestructive testing is used
extensively during the
manufacturing of aircraft.
• NDT is also used to find cracks
and corrosion damage during
operation of the aircraft.
• A fatigue crack that started at
the site of a lightning strike is
shown below.
 Jet Engine Inspection
• Aircraft engines are overhauled
after being in service for a period
of time.
• They are completely disassembled,
cleaned, inspected and then
reassembled.
• Fluorescent penetrant inspection
is used to check many of the parts
for cracking.
Crash of United Flight 232
Sioux City, Iowa, July 19, 1989
A defect that went
undetected in an
engine disk was
responsible for
the crash of
United Flight 232.
 Pressure Vessel Inspection
The failure of a pressure vessel
can result in the rapid release of
a large amount of energy. To
protect against this dangerous
event, the tanks are inspected
using radiography and
ultrasonic testing.
 Rail Inspection
Special cars are used to inspect
thousands of miles of rail to find
cracks that could lead to a
derailment.
 Bridge Inspection
• The US has 578,000
highway bridges.
• Corrosion, cracking and
other damage can all
affect a bridge’s
performance.
• The collapse of the Silver
Bridge in 1967 resulted in
loss of 47 lives.
• Bridges get a visual
inspection about every 2
years.
• Some bridges are fitted
with acoustic emission
sensors that “listen” for
sounds of cracks growing.
 Pipeline Inspection
NDT is used to inspect pipelines
to prevent leaks that could
damage the environment. Visual
inspection, radiography and
electromagnetic testing are some
of the NDT methods used.

Remote visual inspection using

a robotic crawler.

Magnetic flux leakage inspection.

This device, known as a pig, is
placed in the pipeline and collects
data on the condition of the pipe as it
is pushed along by whatever is being
transported.
Radiography of weld joints.
 Special Measurements
Boeing employees in Philadelphia were given the
privilege of evaluating the Liberty Bell for damage using
NDT techniques. Eddy current methods were used to
measure the electrical conductivity of the Bell's bronze
casing at a various points to evaluate its uniformity.
 IMPROVED
New World FLAW
DETECTION,
LOCATION,
SIZING
Affordable
Structural
and
Health
Reliable
FLAW Monitoring
Inspection
DETECTION,
LOCATION,
SIZING
Rapid NDE for
Inspection Measurements
NDE for
Manufacturing
 Advanced NDE

Week 1
Mechanics, Statistics, and Probability
Basics for NDE
 MOTIVATION, RELEVANCE, BENEFITS
• “You Can’t Inspect In Quality”
– Need to make it right in the beginning
– NDE techniques can
• Provide insight during material development cycle
• Provide feedback with respect to process window

• Transitions from Safe Life to Fail Safe/Damage Tolerance

– USAF programs on Retirement for Cause and Engine Rotor Life
Extension
– Flaw detection
– Material characterization
• New Business Models of Power-by-the-Hour
– Enhanced OEM interest in life extension
REQUIRES INTIMATE UNDERSTANDING
OF MATERIALS SCIENCE
Four Elements of Materials Science and Engineering
 THE FUNDAMENTAL CHALLENGE

• NDE is sensitive to microstructural parameters

• Microstructural parameters control properties and performance
• But the combination of microstructural parameters sensed by a given NDE
technique may not be the same as is needed to uniquely predict the
material property of interest
 PREDICTION OF REMAINING LIFE

Stress Levels

Material Properties Fracture Remaining Life

(Crack Growth Parameters, Mechanics
Fracture Toughness)

Flaw Size

• Need better ways to

– Detect and size defects
– Determine material properties
– Determine stress
 A FEW EXAMPLES OF FAILURE MODES OF
OTHER MATERIALS
• Ceramics
– Used as ballistic armor
• Fracture must occur in a controlled way to protect
soldier
• Need NDE of microstructure
• Composites
– Impact damage can produce hidden damage
• Need NDE to detect delaminations
– Improper curing can degrade mechanical properties
• Need NDE providing chemical information
 SOME PARAMETERS FOR WHICH
MEASUREMENT TECHNIQUES ARE NEEDED
Plastic Deformation

y , y Fatigue

u , uts C

m
f , % RA
Remaining life
n
r, Δr
Creep
Creep strain parameters
Fracture Other Failure Modes
KIC

CVN
 CAUTION

• Relationships will not, in general, be unique

– Combination of microstructural parameters sensed by a given NDE technique may
not be the same as is needed to uniquely predict the material properties of interest
• Must develop applications

– With a good understanding of mechanisms

– With a specific application space in mind
 Statistics and Probability
• Definitions
• Moments of Data
– SD
– Variance
– CV
• Distributions
• Probability
• Bayes Theorm
Statistics is...
• a standard method for...
- collecting, organizing, summarizing,
presenting, and analyzing data
- drawing conclusions
- making decisions based upon the
analyses of these data.
• used extensively by engineers (e.g.,
quality control)

53
Populations and Samples
• Population - complete set of all of the
possible instances of a particular
object
– e.g., the entire class
• Sample - subset of the population
– e.g., a team
• We use samples to draw conclusions
about the parent population.
54
 Why use samples?
• The population may be large
– all people on earth, all stars in the sky.
• The population may be dangerous to observe
– automobile wrecks, explosions, etc.
• The population may be difficult to measure
– subatomic particles.
• Measurement may destroy sample
– bolt strength
55
 Measures of Central Tendency
• If you wish to describe a population (or a
sample) with a single number, what do you
use?

– Mean - the arithmetic average

– Mode - most likely (most common) value.
– Median - “middle” of the data set.

56
 Sample Mean
n
1
x 
n
x
i 1
i

Where:
– x is the sample mean
– xi are the data points
– n is the sample size

57
 Population Mean
N
  1
N x
i 1
i

Where:
– μ is the population mean
– xi are the data points
– N is the total number of observations in the
population
58
 What is the Mode?

• mode - the value that occurs the most

often in discrete data (or data that
have been grouped into discrete
intervals)

– Example, students in this class are

most likely to get a grade of B.

59
 Mode continued

• Example of a grade distribution with

mean C, mode B
25

20

15

10

0
F D C B A

60
 What is the Median?

• Median - for sorted data, the median is

the middle value (for an odd number of
points) or the average of the two middle
values (for an even number of points).
– useful to characterize data sets
with a few extreme values that
would distort the mean (e.g., house
price,family incomes).
61
 What Is the Range?
• Range - the difference between the
lowest and highest values in the set.
– Example, driving time to Houston is 2
hours +/- 15 minutes. Therefore...
• Minimum = 105 min
• Maximum = 135 minutes
• Range = 30 minutes

62
 Standard Deviation

• Gives a unique and unbiased

estimate of the scatter in the
data.

63
 Standard Deviation
• Population

• Sample

N
1
 
N
 i
( x
i 1
 ) 2
Variance = 2

Deviation
n
1
s 
(n  1) i 1
( xi
 x ) 2
Variance = s2

64
The Subtle Difference Between  and
σ

N versus n-1
n-1 is needed to get a better estimate of the
population  from the sample s.

Note: for large n, the difference is trivial.

65
 A Valuable Tool
• Gauss invented standard deviation circa 1700
to explain the error observed in measured star
positions.
• Today it is used in everything from quality
control to measuring financial risk.

66
Probability Density Function

p=f(x) frequency function or

probability density function (PDF)

Sum of two numbers

obtained when two
dice are tossed

Frequency Distribution
67
Cumulative Frequency Distribution

F (x j )   f (x )
x j  xi
j

x
F ( x)   f(x)dx For
- continuous
 random
 f(x)dx  1
-
variable

dF ( x)
 f ( x)
dx

68
 N
1
sx  
( N  1) i 1
( xi x ) 2 Note
2
 N

  x 
( x 2 )  Nx 2   i 1 
N i

1 N  N

i 1
sx   2 xi x  x 2 )
2
( x
( N  1) i 1
i

2
  N

N N
  x
 i 1 
i


i 1
( 2 xi
x )  2 x 
i 1
xi
 2 N x 2
 2
N
2
 N

  x  Easier form to use
  i 1 
n i n

 x  Nx with calculators
2 2 2
xi i
N
s x  i 1  i 1
N 1 N 1

69
Distribution of tensile properties of hot-rolled
UNS G10350 steel

Discrete Frequency Histogram with

occurrences or class frequencies fi
70
 k
1
k=21, w=1 kpsi x
N
( f x )
i 1
i i

2
 N 
  f i xi 
f i xi   i 1 
n n

  f i xi  Nx 2
2 2

N
sx  i 1
 i 1
N 1 N 1

Cumulative Density Function is

f i wi i 1 wi represents the class

Fi    ( f j wj )
2 j 1
width at xi

71
• Stochastic variable and variate are also used to mean
a random variable
• Deterministic quantity is something that has a single
specific value
• Stochastic variable can be described by the standard
deviation and the mean or by the coefficient of
variation Cx
• The variate x can be expressed as follows
Sx
Cx 
x
x  X ( x , S x )  x X (1, C x )
72
 Example 1
• Five tons of 2-in round rod of 1030 hot-rolled steel
has been received for work piece stock. Nine
standard-geometry specimens have been
machined from random locations in various rods.
In the report, the ultimate tensile strength was
given in kpsi.
• Find the mean, the standard deviation, and the
coefficient from the sample, such that these are
best estimates of the parent population (the stock
your plant will convert to product)

73
Sut x x2 1 9 611.9
62.8 3 943.84
x  
N i 1
xi 
9
64.4 4 147.36 x  67.98kpsi
65.8 4 329.64 n

 i 
2 2
66.3 4 395.69
x N x
sx  i 1
68.1 4 637.61 N 1
69.1 4 774.81
41689.24  9 * 67.982
sx   3.543kpsi
69.8 4 872.04 9 1
71.5 5 112.25 S x 3.543
Cx    0.0521
74 5 476.00 x 67.98
S611.8 S41 689.24

74
 Example 2
• The data in Eg. 1 have come to the designer in
the histographic form. Using the data in this
form, find the mean, standard deviation and
the coefficient of variation

75
Class Class f.x f.x2
midpoint frequency f
x
63.5 2 127 8 064.50
66.5 2 133 8 844.50
69.5 3 208.5 14 480.75
72.5 2 145 10 513.50
Total 9 613.5 41 912.25

76
 k
1 613.5
x
N

i 1
( f i xi ) 
9
 68.17kpsi

2
N
 
  f i xi 
 
n 2
 f i xi  i 1 613. 5
2
41912.25 
N 9
sx  i 1

N 1 9 1
s x  3.391kpsi
S x 3.391
Cx    0.0497
x 68.17

77
Normal (Gaussian) Distribution

Transformation
Variate
z  x    / ˆ x
Area = 1.00
1
 z2
2
e 0.5

f ( x) 
ˆ x 2
0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.0
-4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0

78
z
 Effect of SD on the PDF

Normal Distribution Curves with small 

and large 
79
 Mircrosoft Excel and Stats
• http://office.microsoft.com/training/Training.
aspx?AssetID=RP010919241033&CTT=6&Origi
n=RC010919231033

80
The Standard Normal Distribution

The Standard Normal Distribution

81
 Z-transform
z  x    / 
Excel

=STANDARDIZE(x,mean,stddev)

Example:

=STANDARDIZE(85,75,10) gives 1.0

82
 Standard Normal Cumulative
Distribution
0.5

0.4

0.3
area from minus
0.2
infinity to z
0.1

0.0
-4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0

Excel Example:
=NORMSDIST(z) =NORMSDIST(1.0)
=0.8413
83
 Normal Data in Excel
To avoid Z transform, use:

=NORMDIST(x,mean,stddev,true)

Example

=NORMDIST(85,75,10,true)
= 0.8413

84
 Inverse Problem
Given ,  and probability, find x
=NORMINV(prob,mean,stddev)

Given probability, find z

=NORMSINV(prob)

Note: The probability is the area under the curve

from minus infinity to x (or z)

85
 Inverse Problem:
Example 1
A batch of bolts have length =5.00 mm, =0.20 mm.
99% of the bolts are shorter than what length?

• Solution 1:
=NORMINV(0.99,5,0.2) gives 5.47 mm

• Solution 2:
=NORMSINV(0.99) = 2.33
5.00+0.20*2.33 = 5.47 mm

86
 Example
• In a shipment of 250 connecting rods, the
mean tensile strength is found to be 45 kpsi
and the standard deviation 5 kpsi.
• Assuming a normal distribution, how many
rods can be expected to have a strength less
than 39.5 kpsi?
• How many are expected to have a strength
between 39.5 and 59.5 kpsi?

87
 z39.5  x    / ˆ x  39.5  45 / 5  1.10
F(z)=f(-1.10), from NORMSDIST=0.1357
250* f(-1.10)=33.9; about 34 rods has
smaller than 39.5 kpsi
88
 z59.5  x    / ˆ x  59.5  45 / 5  2.90
F(z)=f(2.90)=1- f(-2.90)=1-0.00187=0.99813
p= f(z59.5)- f(z39.5)=0.99813-0.1357=0.86243
250* 0.862 43=215.5; about 215 rods are
between 39.5 and 59.5 kpsi

89
 The Lognormal Distribution
• The distribution is valid if the log (base n) of
the variable is a normal distribution.
• The variables have only positive values and
asymmetrical about the mean
• Used when life is involved; fatigue life under
stress or wear life of rolling bearings
x  LN  x , ˆ x 
x has a lognormal
y  ln x distribution, after
transforming to y, y
y  N  y , ˆ y  has normal
distribution
90
The Lognormal Distribution
2
1  ln x   y 


2  ˆ y 

e
g(x)  x0 CHECK THE MATH

xˆ y 2
g(x)  0, x  0
1 2
 y  ln  x  ln 1  C  ln  x  C x 2
x
2
ˆ y  ln 1  C x2   C x

91
92
 Example 2.4
• One thousand specimens of 1020 steel were
tested to rupture and the ultimate tensile
strengths were reported as grouped in Table

Class Frequ xi*fi xi2*fi Observ Normal Lognor

midpoint ency ed PDF density mal
fi fi/(Nw) f(x) density
xi g(x)
56.5 2 113.0 6 384.5 0.002 0.0035 0.0026
etc

S 1 000 63 625 4 054 864 1.00

93
 k
1 63625
x
N

i 1
( f i xi ) 
1000
 63.625kpsi

2
N
 
  f i xi 
 
n 2
 f i xi  i 1 63625
2
4054864 
N 1000
sx  i 1

N 1 1000  1
s x  2.594kpsi
Treated as normal
Sx 2.594
Cx    0.0408 distribution
x 63.625
94
 Example 5
 1  x  63.625  2 
exp    
 2  2.594245  
f(x)  x0
2.594245 2

 y  ln  x  ln 1  C x2
 y  ln 63.625  ln 1  0.040782  4.1522
ˆ y  ln 1  C x2   ln 1  0.040782   0.0408
 1  ln x  4.1522  2 
exp    
 2  0.0408   Lognormal
g(x)  x  0 distribution
0.0408 x 2
95
normal [f(x)] and lognormal [g(x)]
distribution
96
 Distribution Parameters
• Scale Parameter
• The scale parameter is the most common type of parameter. All distributions in this
reference have a scale parameter. In the case of one-parameter distributions, the sole
parameter is the scale parameter. The scale parameter defines where the bulk of the
distribution lies or how stretched out the distribution is. In the case of the normal
distribution, the scale parameter is the standard deviation.
• Shape Parameter
• The shape parameter, as the name implies, helps define the shape of a distribution.
Some distributions, such as the exponential or normal, do not have a shape parameter
since they have a predefined shape that does not change. In the case of the normal
distribution, the shape is always the familiar bell shape. The effect of the shape
parameter on a distribution is reflected in the shape of the pdf.
• Location Parameter
• The location parameter is used to shift a distribution in one direction or another. The
location parameter, usually defines the location of the origin of a distribution and can be
either positive or negative. In terms of lifetime distributions, the location parameter
represents a time shift.

97
 Location Parameter
• Realistically, the calculation
of a negative location
parameter is indicative of
quiescent failures (failures
that occur before a product
is used for the first time) or
of problems with the
manufacturing, packaging
or shipping processes.

98
 The Uniform Distribution
• A closed-interval distribution that arises when
the chance of an observation is the same as
the chance for any other observation
• Observed in manufacturing; when a part is
mass-produced in an automatic operation and
the dimension gradually changes through tool
wear and increased tool forces between
setups

99
 The Uniform Distribution

1
f ( x)  ; axb
ba
F(x)  0; x  a
x -a
F(x)  ; axb
b-a
F(x)  1; x  b

100
Exponential Distribution
 ( x  )
f(x)  e x0

101
 Example 7
• A round bar subject to a bending load has a
diameter d=LN(2.000,0.002) inch
• This equivalency states that the mean
diameter is 2.000 in and the standard
deviation is 0.0002
• Find the mean and the standard deviation of
the second moment of area

102
 Linear Regression
• Regression
– Obtaining a curve that best fits a set of data points
– If the best fitting is a straight line, it is linear
regression

y  mx  b
yi  mxi  b   i
 i  yi  y
103
Linear Regression

104
    i    yi  mxi  b 
2 2

d d
 0, 0
dm db
N  xi yi   xi  yi  x y  Nx y
mˆ   i i

N  xi   xi   x  Nx
2 2 2 2
i

bˆ 
 y i  mˆ  xi
 y  mˆ x
N
105
 Correlation Coefficient r
sx
r  mˆ
sy
s y. x r=0, no
smˆ  correlation,
 x  x  r=1 or –1
2
i
perfect
1 x 2
correlation.
sbˆ  s y. x  Negative
N  xi  x 2
sign means
negative
 i  i  i i
ˆ y  mˆ x y
2
y  b slope
s y. x 
N 2
106
 Example 8
• A specimen of a medium carbon steel was tested in
tension. With an extensometer in place, the specimen
was loaded then unloaded, to see if the extensometer
reading returned to the no-load reading, then the next
higher load was applied.
• The loads and extensometer elongations were reduced to
stress and strain, see the data
• Find the mean Young’s modulus and its standard
deviation. Since the extensometer seems to have an
initial reading at no load, use y=mx+b

107
 Data

 5033 10 068 15 104 20 143 35 267

 0.000 20 0.000 30 0.000 50 0.000 65 0.001 15

Worksheet

 y  x x2 xy y2
( x  x )2
5033 0.000 20 0.04E-6 1.006 600 25 330 089 0.130E-6
Summation

85615 0.002 80 2.125E-6 65.229 2.004E9 0.556E-6

108
 N  xi yi   xi  yi
mˆ 
N  xi   xi 
2 2

565.229  0.002885615

50.000002215  0.0028 2

 31.03E 6 psi  E

bˆ 
 y  mˆ  x  85615  31.03E 60.0028
i i

N 5
 254.69 psi

109
 sx 3162163E  4
r  mˆ  31.03E 6  0.998
sy 11601.11

y  bˆ yi  mˆ  xi yi
2

s y. x  i

N 2
2004328267   254.69 85615  31.03E 665229

52
 811.1 psi
s y. x 811.1
smˆ  
 x  x 
2
i
0.000000558
 1.086 E 6 psi

110
111
 What probability theory is for
• Suppose you’ve already texted the characters
“There in a minu”
• You’d like your mobile phone to guess the most likely
completion of “minu” rather than MINUET or MINUS
or MINUSCULE
• In other words, you’d like your mobile phone to
know that given what you’ve texted so far, MINUTE is
more likely than those other alternatives
• PROBABILITY THEORY was developed to formalize
the notion of LIKELIHOOD

113
 TRIALS (or EXPERIMENTS)
• Anything that may have a certain OUTCOME (on
which you can make a bet, say)
• Classic examples:
– Throwing a die
– A horse race
• In LE:
– Looking at the next word in a text
– Having your system perform a certain task

114
 (ELEMENTARY) OUTCOMES
• The results of an experiment:
– In a coin toss, HEAD or TAILS
– In a race, the names of the horses involved
• Or if we are only interested in whether a particular
horse wins: WIN and LOSE
• In LE:
– When looking at the next word: the possible
words
– In the case of a system: RIGHT or WRONG
115
 EVENTS
• Often, we want to talk about the likelihood of
getting one of several outcomes:
– E.g., with dice, the likelihood of getting an even
number, or a number greater than 3
• An EVENT is a set of possible OUTCOMES
(possibly just a single elementary outcome):
– E1 = {4}
– E2 = {2,4,6}
– E3 = {3,4,5,6}

116
 SAMPLE SPACES
• The SAMPLE SPACE is the set of all possible outcomes:
– For the case of a dice, sample space S = {1,2,3,4,5,6}
• For the texting case:
– Texting a word is a TRIAL,
– The word texted is an OUTCOME,
– EVENTS which result from this trial are: texting the word
“minute”, texting a word that begins with “minu”, etc
– The set of all possible words is the SAMPLE SPACE
• (NB: the sample space may be very large, or even infinite)

117
 Probability Functions
• The likelihood of an event is indicated using a
PROBABILITY FUNCTION P
• The probability of an event E is specified by a
function P(E), with values between 0 and 1
– P(E) = 1: the event is CERTAIN to occur
– P(E) = 0: the event is certain NOT to occur
• Example: in the case of die casting,
– P(E’ = ‘getting as a result a number between 1 and 6’) =
P({1,2,3,4,5,6}) = 1
– P(E’’ = ‘getting as a result 7’) = 0
• The sum of the probabilities of all elementary
outcomes = 1

118
 Probabilities and
relative frequencies
• In the case of a die, we know all of the possible outcomes ahead of time,
and we also know a priori what the likelihood of a certain outcome is. But
in many other situations in which we would like to estimate the likelihood
of an event, this is not the case.
• For example, suppose that we would like to bet on horses rather than on
dice. Harry is a race horse: we do not know ahead of time how likely it is
for Harry to win. The best we can do is to ESTIMATE P(WIN) using the
RELATIVE FREQUENCY of the outcome `Harry wins’
• Suppose Harry raced 100 times, and won 20 races overall. Then
– P(WIN) = WIN/TOTAL NUMBER OF RACES = .2
– P(LOSE) = .8

119
 Joint probabilities
• We are often interested in the probability of TWO events
happening:
– When throwing a die TWICE, the probability of getting a 6 both
times
– The probability of finding a sequence of two words: `the’ and
`car’
• We use the notation A&B to indicate the conjunction of two events,
and P(A&B) to indicate the probability of such conjunction
– Because events are SETS, the probability is often also written as
We use the same notation with WORDS: P(‘the’ & ‘car’)

P( A  B)

120
 Other combinations of events
• A  B: either event A or event B happens
– P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(AB)
•  A: event A does not happen
– P( A) = 1 –P(A)

121
 Prior probability vs. conditional
probability
• The prior probability P(WIN) is the likelihood of an event occurring
irrespective of anything else we know about the world
• Often however we DO have additional information, that can help us
making a more informed guess about the likelihood of a certain event
• E.g, take again the case of Harry the horse. Suppose we know that it
was raining during 30 of the races that Harry raced, and that Harry won
15 of these races. Intuitively, the probability of Harry winning when it’s
raining is .5 - HIGHER than the probability of Harry winning overall
– We can make a more informed guess
• We indicate the probability of an event A happening given that we
know that event B happened as well – the CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
of A given B – as P(A|B)

122
 Conditional probability
• Conditional probability is DEFINED as follows:

P( A & B)
P( A | B) 
P( B)
• Intuitively, you RESTRICT the range of trials in
consideration to those in which event B took place,
as well (most easily seen when thinking in terms of
relative frequency)

123
 Example
• Consider : Horse has won in rain 15 times. The
season is 100 days and it has rained on 30 days.
P(WIN & RAIN )
P(WIN | RAIN ) 
P( RAIN )
• Where:
– P(WIN&RAIN) = 15/100 = .15
– P(RAIN) = 30/100 = .30

• This gives:
0.15
P(WIN | RAIN )   0.5
0.3

124
 The chain rule
• The definition of conditional probability can we
rewritten as:
– P(A&B) = P(A|B) P(B)
– P(A&B) = P(B|A) P(A)
• These equation generalize to the so-called CHAIN
RULE:
– P(w1,w2,w3,….wn) = P(w1) P(w2|w1) P(w3|w1,w2) ….
P(wn|w1 …. wn-1)
• The chain rule plays an important role in statistical
LE:
– P(the big dog) = P(the) P(big|the) P(dog|the big)

125
 Independence
• Additional information does not always help. For example, knowing
the color of a dice usually doesn’t help us predicting the result of a
throw; knowing the name of the jockey’s girlfriend doesn’t help
predicting how well the horse he rides will do in a race; etc. When
this is the case, we say that two events are INDEPENDENT
• The notion of independence is defined in probability theory using
the definition of conditional probability
• Consider again the basic form of the chain rule:
– P(A&B) = P(A|B) P(B)
• We say that two events are INDEPENDENT if:
– P(A&B) = P(A) P(B)
– P(A|B) = P(A)

126
 Bayes’ theorem
• Suppose you’ve developed an Information Retrieval
system for searching a big database (say, the Web)
• Given any search, about 1/100,000 documents is
relevant (REL) i.e. P(REL) =0.00001
• Suppose your system is pretty good:
– P(YES|REL) = .95
– P(YES| REL) = .005
• What is the probability that the document is
relevant, when the system says YES?
– P(REL|YES)?

127
 Bayes’ Theorem
• Bayes’ Theorem is a pretty trivial consequence of the
definition of conditional probability, but it is very useful
in that it allows us to use one conditional probability to
compute another
• We already saw that the definition of conditional
probability can be rewritten equivalently as:
– P(A&B) = P(A|B) P(B)
– P(A&B) = P(B|A) P(A)
• If we equate the two left sides, we get Bayes’ theorem

P( A | B) P( B)
P( B | A) 
128 P ( A)
 Application of Bayes’ theorem

P(YES | REL ) P( REL )

P( REL | YES ) 
P(YES )
P(YES | REL ) P( REL )

P(YES | REL ) P( REL )  P(YES | REL ) P(REL )

0.95  0.00001
  0.002
0.95  0.00001  0.005  0.99999

129
 Damage Tolerant Approach to Life
Assessment for Perfect NDE

• Distribution of nucleating conditions

• Broken curves: damage removed by perfect inspection

Short Course - QNDE for Pipes_July 2008 130

 NDE is Not Perfect

• All damage of the same size does not produce the

same signal strength
• Detection occurs for that fraction of damage of a
given size whose signals exceed a fixed threshold
(POD)
• Potential for false alarms influences this threshold

Short Course - QNDE for Pipes_July 2008 131

NDE is Not Perfect

Short Course - QNDE for Pipes_July 2008 132

Imperfection in NDE Leads To Probability of a
Miss

Short Course - QNDE for Pipes_July 2008 133

 Key Inputs To Damage Tolerance Analysis

• Initial damage distribution

• Damage growth laws
• Effectiveness of NDE (POD)

Short Course - QNDE for Pipes_July 2008 134

 Outline

• Overview of Damage Tolerance

• Current AF Practice in Fatigue
• Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Fatigue
• Determination of POD
• Influence of Various Factors
• Implications for Pipeline Inspection

Short Course - QNDE for Pipes_July 2008 135

 Safe Life Design

• Assume structure initially unflawed

• How long before crack initiates?
– No credit for crack propagation
• Design lives based on
– Fatigue test mean life
– Safety factor (e.g., 4) such that acceptably small
numbers of failure during design life (e.g., <0.1%).

Short Course - QNDE for Pipes_July 2008 136

 Safe Life Design

• Extensive component testing plus a safety factor

Reference: Grandt

Short Course - QNDE for Pipes_July 2008 137

 Safe Life Design

• A related but different view

Reference: Christodoulou and Larsen

Short Course - QNDE for Pipes_July 2008 138

 Weaknesses of Safe-Life Approach

• Economic
– Many components reach end of design life with
much actual life left
– Improved NDE implies more components removed
from service, irrespective of actual remaining life
• Safety/Readiness
– Unanticipated initial damage can greatly reduce
crack nucleation time

Short Course - QNDE for Pipes_July 2008 139

 Some Past Problems with the Approach

• Unanticipated initial damage in specific cases greatly

reduces crack nucleation portion of fatigue life
– KC-135 Although the safe-life for this transport/tanker aircraft was
determined to be 13,000 flight hours, there were 14 cases of unstable
cracking in lower wing skins that occurred between 1800 and 5000
hours. These premature failures resulted in a costly wing modification
for the entire fleet at 8500 service hours
– F-5 One of these fighters failed by fatigue cracking in the lower wing skin
after 1900 flight hours although the safe-life for this area had been
shown to be 4000 hours.
– F111 The safe-life for this aircraft was 4000 flight hours, but one aircraft
was lost to fatigue after only 105 hours of service.
Reference: Grandt

Short Course - QNDE for Pipes_July 2008 140

 Undetected Forging Crack in F-111

This 1969 failure of a new F-111 aircraft was caused by an undetected forging defect
that quickly grew to failure by fatigue in the high-strength steel wing pivot fitting
structure.
Reference: Grandt

Short Course - QNDE for Pipes_July 2008 141

 Damage Tolerant Design

• Assume structure contains initial cracks

• Structure designed to resist fracture from cracks of a
given size for a specified interval of time
• Initial crack size often based on inspection limits

Short Course - QNDE for Pipes_July 2008 142

Fracture Mechanics Models for Evolution of
Fatigue Damage

Short Course - QNDE for Pipes_July 2008 143

 Slow Crack Growth

• Assume
– structure initially contains
cracks
– these grow in a controlled
way as predicted by fracture
mechanics
– allowable life determined by
a detectable flaw size (aNDI) aNDI
and safety factor

Reference: Grandt

Short Course - QNDE for Pipes_July 2008 144

 Retirement for Cause

• Extension beyond initial design

life
• Periodic inspection locate
damaged components that are
repaired or replaced
• Fracture mechanics used to
determine the remaining service
life an undetected crack to grow
to failure
• Requires reliable determination
of maximum crack size that could
go undetected

Reference: Grandt

Short Course - QNDE for Pipes_July 2008 145

 Outline

• Overview of Damage Tolerance

• Current AF Practice in Fatigue
• Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Fatigue
• Determination of POD
• Influence of Various Factors
• Implications for Pipeline Inspection

Short Course - QNDE for Pipes_July 2008 146

 Probabilistic, Risk Analysis Framework of
USAF

• Gallagher, Babish, Malas, “Damage Tolerant Risk Analysis Techniques for

Evaluating the Structural Integrity of Aircraft Structures,” Presented at 11th
International Conference on Fracture, Turin, Italy (March, 2005).

Short Course - QNDE for Pipes_July 2008 147

 Nature of Inputs

• Probabilistic
– Initial and repair flaw sizes
– Fracture toughness
– Probability of detection
– POD
– Maximum stress per flight
• Deterministic
– Normalized stress intensity function at critical locations
– Fatigue crack growth curve

Short Course - QNDE for Pipes_July 2008 148

 Enhanced Life Management Process of FAA

• “Damage Tolerance for High Energy Turbine Engine Rotors,” Federal Aviation
Administration Advisory Circular AC 33.14-1, ANE-110 (January 8, 2001).

Short Course - QNDE for Pipes_July 2008 149

Typical Elements of a Titanium Melt Related
Anomaly Risk Assessment

Short Course - QNDE for Pipes_July 2008 150

Relative Risk Calculation for Single In-Service
Inspection

Short Course - QNDE for Pipes_July 2008 151

 Outline

• Overview of Damage Tolerance

• Current AF Practice in Fatigue
• Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Fatigue
• Determination of POD
• Influence of Various Factors
• Implications for Pipeline Inspection

Short Course - QNDE for Pipes_July 2008 152

 Determination of POD

• Quantify, for a given flaw size, either

– Details of signal distribution
– Numbers of hits and misses
Short Course - QNDE for Pipes_July 2008 153
Short Course - QNDE for Pipes_July 2008 Reference: Rummel 154
Short Course - QNDE for Pipes_July 2008 Reference: Rummel 155
Short Course - QNDE for Pipes_July 2008 Reference: Rummel 156
Short Course - QNDE for Pipes_July 2008 Reference: Rummel 157
 Breaking Up Into Size Ranges (Grouping)
• Purely empirical analysis of
binary, hit/miss data

Number Detected
POD 
Total Number
Short Course - QNDE for Pipes_July 2008 158
 Challenges

• Want high confidence (resolution in POD)

– How confident are you that a POD estimate based on particular
experiment is close to the correct answer?
– “Resolution in POD” improves when number of samples
increases
• Want high resolution in size
– Implies groups have smaller size range
– For a fixed total number of samples, fewer samples per group
• Trade-offs must be made between resolution in POD and
resolution in size

Short Course - QNDE for Pipes_July 2008 159

Short Course - QNDE for Pipes_July 2008 Reference: Rummel 160
Short Course - QNDE for Pipes_July 2008 Reference: Rummel 161
 A Parametric Approach

• Assume a model between test POD and size

– Use data to determine parameters of model
• Two variations
– Hit/miss data
– Flaw response data (â versus a)
• For each flaw, record response (â) and size (a)
• More information than hit/miss
• More precise estimates (narrower confidence bounds)

Short Course - QNDE for Pipes_July 2008 162

Short Course - QNDE for Pipes_July 2008 Reference: Rummel 163
Pictorial Representation of Flaw Response POD
Determination (â versus a)
• • • •
• • • • •
• • • •
•
• • • • • •
•
• • • • •
• • •
• • •
• • •
• • • • •
• • • •
• • ••
• • • •
• •
• • • • • • •
• •
• • • • •
• • •
• • •
• • • • • •
• • • • • • •
• • • • • • •
• • •
• • • •
• • •
• •
• • •
• •
• • •

 Obtain and plot data of log (flaw response) versus log (flaw size),
known as a a-hat versus a
 Perform a linear regression
 When distribution about regression line is normal, POD determined
by:
 Mean
 Standard deviation
 Threshold Short Course - QNDE for Pipes_July 2008 164
Similar Approach Exists for Binary Data

Short Course - QNDE for Pipes_July 2008 Reference: Annis 165

 Directed Design Of Experiments For Validating Probability Of
Detection Capability Of NDE Systems (DOEPOD)

• ABSTRACT. The capability of an inspection system is established by applications of

various methodologies to determine the probability of detection (POD). One
accepted metric of an adequate inspection system is that there is 95% confidence
that the POD is greater than 90% (90/95 POD). Directed design of experiments for
probability of detection (DOEPOD) has been developed to provide an efficient and
accurate methodology that yields observed POD and confidence bounds for both
Hit-Miss or signal amplitude testing. Specifically, DOEPOD demands utilization of
observance of occurrences. Directed DOEPOD does not assume prescribed POD
logarithmic or similar functions with assumed adequacy over a wide range of flaw
sizes and inspection system technologies, so that multi-parameter curve fitting or
model optimization approaches to generate a POD curve are not required.
• E. R. Generazio, National Aeronautics and Space Administration
• Review of Progress in Quantitative Nondestructive Evaluation,
Vol 27, pp. 1693-1700

Short Course - QNDE for Pipes_July 2008 166

 Outline

• Overview of Damage Tolerance

• Current AF Practice in Fatigue
• Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Fatigue
• Determination of POD
• Influence of Various Factors
• Implications for Pipeline Inspection

Short Course - QNDE for Pipes_July 2008 167

Short Course - QNDE for Pipes_July 2008 Reference: Rummel 168
Dependence of EC POD on Feature for Aircraft
Engine (Test Object Variables)

Short Course - QNDE for Pipes_July 2008 169

 In the real world flaw morphology and other factors can
make things more complex.

• Example of estimating POD for the ultrasonic

detection of hard-alpha inclusions in aircraft engine,
billet material

Short Course - QNDE for Pipes_July 2008 170

Two Systems for Detection of
Hard-Alpha Inclusions

Reference: Default POD Report

Short Course - QNDE for Pipes_July 2008 171
Knowledge of Misses and Flaw Morphology Important
in POD Determination

Reference: Default POD Report

Short Course - QNDE for Pipes_July 2008 172
Current POD Curves for Detection of Hard-
Alpha Inclusions

Reference: Default POD Report

Short Course - QNDE for Pipes_July 2008 173
 Model-Assisted probability of Detection
(MAPOD)
• An approach to allow extending old POD results to new
situations
– Extension based on information gained in controlled laboratory
experiments or from physics-based models
– Allows extension to new flaw morphologies, geometries,
materials, etc.
– Several demonstrations underway
– Large potential savings in time and cost

http://www.cnde.iastate.edu/MAPOD/

Short Course - QNDE for Pipes_July 2008 174

 MAPOD Strategy

R. B. Thompson, Materials Evaluation, Vol. 66,

No. 6, pp. 667-673, 2008.

Short Course - QNDE for Pipes_July 2008 175

 MAPOD Example
Flat Plate
crack response
CRACKS mc

Lab data to control variability

bc

crack depth
mcxc + bc
Crack Notch 10
=
Response Response mnxn + bn
notch response

10
NOTCHES mn

bn
Complex Geometry/Notch
nothc depth

Complex Geometry/Notch

POD
Variability Data
POD

Notch size

K. Smith, MAPOD Working Group, Palm Springs, Crack size

CA, February 4, 2005.

Short Course - QNDE for Pipes_July 2008 176

 Outline

• Overview of Damage Tolerance

• Current AF Practice in Fatigue
• Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Fatigue
• Determination of POD
• Influence of Various Factors
• Implications for Pipeline Inspection

Short Course - QNDE for Pipes_July 2008 177

 Several Issues Requiring Attention

• If want to do quantitative, probabilistic risk assessment,

need to have strategy to determine
– Initial distribution of damage
– Evolution of damage with time
– POD of inspection
• Determination of the latter will be influenced by
– Geometry of the samples
– Number of the samples
– Flaws of realistic morphology
– Independent knowledge of misses if analysis based on field data

Short Course - QNDE for Pipes_July 2008 178

 Model-Assisted probability of Detection
(MAPOD)
• An approach to allow extending old POD results to new
situations
– Extension based on information gained in controlled laboratory
experiments or from physics-based models
– Allows extension to new flaw morphologies, geometries,
materials, etc.
– Several demonstrations underway
– Large potential savings in time and cost

http://www.cnde.iastate.edu/MAPOD/

179
 MAPOD Strategy

180
R. B. Thompson, Materials Evaluation, Vol. 66, No. 6, pp. 667-673, 2008.
 Modeling Approach to POD
Validated models can replace costly
Experimental approach.
 Damage Characterization of Material Systems

Overview of NDE at Difference Scales

Creep cracks

Ultrasonic testing Scanning Optical Microscopy Transmission electron microscope

Interferometry Thermal wave microscopy Positron annihilation
Thermography Acoustic microscopy
Micro focal-Radiography
Nonlinear acoustics
X-Ray Imaging
Eddy current Scanning electron microscope Near Field Imaging Nanoscopy

1 mm 1 µm 1 nm

Macroscopic defects Micro defects Microstructure Crystal lattice defects

•Cracks •Initial corrosion pits Grain boundaries •Dislocations
•Pores •Micro cracks Precipitations •Vacancies
•Inclusions •Micro pores Voids •Micro voids
•Thickness loss •Interstitials
1
Adapted from Mayendorf et. Al. 8
Materials Characterisation
Is Failure Predictable ?
 Key science and technology disciplines

Coupled physics-based models of materials damage and behavior

• • Interaction of multiple damage/failure mechanisms
• • Multi-scale, mechanism-based
• • Microstructurally-based stochastic behavior
• • Integrated information from state-awareness tools
Interrogation of damage-state
• • Intelligently exploit existing sensors
• • Feature extraction from global sensors
• • Materials-damage-state interrogation techniques and recorders
• • Sensor signature analysis
Data management and fusion
• • Capability matched to mission
• • Component usage data
• • Component history and pedigree
 Step 1: Understanding Mechanisms

Courtesy: Chirstoudoulou et. al, DARPA, USA

 Step 2: Interrogation of State of the
Material/Structure

Courtesy: Chirstoudoulou et. al, DARPA, USA

 Step 3: Prognosis

Courtesy: Chirstoudoulou et. al, DARPA, USA

 DAMAGE MECHANICS – GENERIC APPROACH

DAMAGE MODELING FEA

- Develop damage model (Specimen level)
- Identify model parameters
* Tensile, LCF, Creep…

Damage Analysis

VALIDATION
Predicted Damage
Measured Damage

No
No
Application to Good Comparison
Component ?
Yes
Courtesy: Dr. Vikas Kumar, DMRL, Hyderabad
 Prognosis Benefits

Courtesy: Chirstoudoulou et. al, DARPA, USA

 SUMMARY
• NDE has a very WIDE and CRITICAL role in the industry.
• NDE improves productivity and safety.
• Understanding the physics, capabilities, and limitation
of different modalities on NDE is key to best practices
in the industry.
• Probability and Statistics play a very key role in
providing realistic expectations from NDT.
• Theoretical Models may go a long way.
• NDE plays a key role in the Prognosis of Critical
Components, however, only when understood in
conjunction with other key partnering technologies
including Materials Science, Modeling, Mechanics, etc.