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    The Human Population and The Environment

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    Human population growth poses the greatest threat to the environment. The human population grew rapidly in the 20th century and, despite slowing growth rates, the absolute numbers are still increasing due to exponential growth. Three key factors that impact the environment are population size, affluence, and technology. Population growth increases environmental impacts through direct effects like habitat destruction and indirect effects like increased resource consumption. Reducing population growth rates through policies that delay childbearing and increase access to family planning can help curb environmental impacts.

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    The Human Population and The Environment

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    Human population growth poses the greatest threat to the environment. The human population grew rapidly in the 20th century and, despite slowing growth rates, the absolute numbers are still increasing due to exponential growth. Three key factors that impact the environment are population size, affluence, and technology. Population growth increases environmental impacts through direct effects like habitat destruction and indirect effects like increased resource consumption. Reducing population growth rates through policies that delay childbearing and increase access to family planning can help curb environmental impacts.

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    8 9 HumanPopulation Lecture 8 9

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    Human population growth poses the greatest threat to the environment. The human population grew rapidly in the 20th century and, despite slowing growth rates, the absolute numbers are still increasing due to exponential growth. Three key factors that impact the environment are population size, affluence, and technology. Population growth increases environmental impacts through direct effects like habitat destruction and indirect effects like increased resource consumption. Reducing population growth rates through policies that delay childbearing and increase access to family planning can help curb environmental impacts.

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    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as ppt, pdf, or txt
    32 views37 pages

    The Human Population and The Environment

    Uploaded by

    red8blue8
    Human population growth poses the greatest threat to the environment. The human population grew rapidly in the 20th century and, despite slowing growth rates, the absolute numbers are still increasing due to exponential growth. Three key factors that impact the environment are population size, affluence, and technology. Population growth increases environmental impacts through direct effects like habitat destruction and indirect effects like increased resource consumption. Reducing population growth rates through policies that delay childbearing and increase access to family planning can help curb environmental impacts.

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    of 37

    The Human Population and The

    Environment
    Env107
    Question
    • What is the greatest human generated threat
    to the environment?
    Lecture Outline
    • The scope of human
    population growth
    • The effect of population,
    affluence and technology
    on the environment
    • Fundamentals of
    demography
    • The demographic
    transition
    • Factors that affect
    population growth
    Human Population Growth
    • Human population grew at a rate
    unprecedented in history in the 20th
    century.
    • Although rate of growth is slowing, absolute
    numbers still increasing
    • Population growth is the underlying
    environmental problem
    The human population is still growing
    rapidly
    • It took until after 1800 to reach 1 billion
    • In 1930, 130 years later, we reached 2 billion
    • The most recent billion was added in 12 years

    Due to exponential growth, even if the growth rate remains steady,


    population will continue to grow
    Exponential Growth

    • Exponential growth:
    • Growth by a fixed percentage,
    where the increase is added to
    As population grows,
    the principal: the same percentage
    • P = Po e r t becomes BIGGER
    – Po = initial population
    – r = growth rate (in decimals)
    – t = time
    – e = base of natural logarithms
    (2.71828)
    • If growth rate is 1.3%:
    r = 0.013
    •Exponential growth cannot be sustained indefinitely

    •It occurs in nature with a small population and ideal


    conditions
    Forecasting Population Change

    P 2 = P 1 + ( B – D ) + (I – E )

    Population Growth Rate

    B= births P1=pop at Time 1


    D = deaths P2=pop at Time 2
    I= immigration
    E=emigration
    Exponential Growth
    • Population growth rate remains the same, but the
    number of individuals increases rapidly

    • Exponential growth cannot be maintained


    indefinitely… eventually the population will feel the
    environmental resistance and growth will slow or stop
    completely
    Carrying capacity
    • Carrying capacity = the
    maximum population
    size of a species that its
    environment can sustain
    – An S-shaped logistic
    growth curve
    – Limiting factors slow and
    stop exponential growth
    • Carrying capacity
    changes
    Humans have raised their
    carrying capacity by
    decreasing the carrying
    capacity for other species
    Exponential Growth & Doubling Time
    • Exponential growth:
    – Growth occurs at a constant
    rate per time period

    • Doubling time
    – The time necessary for the
    quantity being measured to
    double.
    – Approximately equal to 70
    divided by the annual
    percentage growth rate
    Rates of growth vary from region to
    region

    • At today’s 1.2% global growth rate, the population


    will double in 58 years (70/1.2 = 58)
    • 2068 global population = 14 billion people
    2015
    Rank Country Population (Million)
    1 China 1,362
    2 India 1,252
    3 United States 321
    4 Indonesia 256
    5 Brazil 204
    6 Pakistan 199
    7 Nigeria 182
    8 Bangladesh 169
    9 Russia 146
    10 Japan 127 Population Reference Bureau
    www.prb.org
    Demography
    • Population Ecology = the study
    of how individuals of a species
    interact

    • Demography = the application


    of population ecology to the
    study of humans

    – Population size
    – Density and distribution
    – Age structure & sex ratio
    – Birth, death, immigration, &
    emigration rates
    Age Structure
    Population age structure:
    – The proportion of the population in each age class
    – Affects current and future birth rates, death rates and
    growth rates
    – Has an impact on the environment
    – Has complications for current and future social and
    economic status.
    Age structure affects future population size

    • Having many individuals


    in young age groups
    results in high
    reproduction and rapid
    population growth
    Age structure of Bangladesh in 2014
    A Brief History of Human Population Growth
    Hunters and gatherers
    • The world’s population was probably less than a few million
    Early, pre-industrial agriculture
    • Allowed a much greater density of people
    • The first major increase in human population
    Machine age
    • Industrial revolution (~1800s) led to rapid increase in human population
    The Modern era
    • Rate of population has slowed in wealthy nations but continues to
    increase rapidly in poorer, less developed nations.
    The demographic transition

    • Demographic transition = a model of


    economic and cultural change to explain
    the declining death and birth rates in
    industrializing nations
    • Moves from stable preindustrial state of
    high birth and death rates change to a
    stable post-industrial state of low birth and
    death rates
    The Demographic Transition
    • Demographic transition:
    – Three-stage pattern of change in birth rates and death
    rates.
    – Occurred during the process of industrial and economic
    development of Western nations.
    – Leads to a decline in population growth.

    Stage I: Pre-Industrial: Birth rate & death rate high


    Stage II: Decline in death rate
    Stage III: Birth rate remains high, High growth rate
    Stage IV: Birth rate drops toward the death rate,
    leading to low or zero growth rate.
    The demographic transition’s four
    stages
    Stage 1:
    Preindustrial
    Stage 2:
    Increasing
    population

    Stage 3:
    Population
    continues to
    increase, but
    growth rate
    reduced

    Stage 4:
    Population
    stable, but
    overall size
    larger
    •As mortality decreases, there is less need for large families
    -Parents invest in quality of life
    Poverty and population growth are correlated

    • Poorer societies have higher growth rates than wealthier societies


    – Consistent with the demographic transition theory
    – They have higher fertility and growth rates, with lower
    contraceptive use

    99% of the next billion people added will be born in poor, less
    developed regions that are least able to support them
    Causes and consequences of
    population growth
    Population growth affects the
    environment

    • The IPAT model: I = P x A x T x S


    – Total impact (I) on the environment results from the
    interaction of:
    • Population (P) = individuals need space and resources
    • Affluence (A) = greater per capita resource use
    • Technology (T) = increased exploitation of resources
    • Sensitivity (S) = how sensitive an area is to human pressure
    How to curb population growth?
    • Reduce TFR
    – Total fertility rate (TFR) = the average number of
    children born per female
    – Increasing urbanization decreases TFR
    • Children go to school, and increase costs
    • With social security, elderly parents need fewer children to
    support them
    • Greater education allows women to enter the labor force,
    with less emphasis on child rearing
    • Delay age of first reproduction
    – China laws on age of marriage
    • Between 1950 and 1985 when laws raising age first to 18 and
    then 20 went into effect. Fertility rate fell from 5.7 to 2.1 from
    1972-1985.
    Consider the difference between the parents
    having their first kids at age 18 vs. having them
    at 26?
    China’s “one child policy”
    • In 1970, China’s 790 million people faced starvation
    • Introduced in 1979, extended to 2015
    • Limits couples to one child
    • Fines, abortion pressure, forced sterilization can be consequences
    for second child
    • Restricted to couples living in urban areas (~36% of population)
    • Controversial- led to abortion, neglect, abandonment, and
    infanticide in female infants, black market trade in teenage girls
    • New provisions for parents without siblings (many born out of this
    policy)
    • TFR in China has dropped from over 5 in the early 1970s to 1.8 in
    2008
    Population growth affects the
    environment

    • The IPAT model: I = P x A x T x S


    – Total impact (I) on the environment results from the
    interaction of:
    • Population (P) = individuals need space and resources
    • Affluence (A) = greater per capita resource use
    • Technology (T) = increased exploitation of resources
    • Sensitivity (S) = how sensitive an area is to human pressure
    Human Impacts on Environment

    Red denotes areas of extreme


    environmental degradation, while green
    shows areas of low human impact. What
    could explain these patterns?
    Humans have both direct and indirect impacts
    on the environment
    Human Population
    Size and Resource Use

    Human Activites
    Agriculture, industry, economic
    production and consumption, recreation

    Direct Effects
    Degradation and destruction of natural ecosystems
    Alteration of natural chemical cycles and energy flow (biogeochemical cycles)
    Changes in number and distribution of species (biodiversity)
    Pollution of air, water, and soil

    Indirect Effects
    Climate Change
    Loss of biodiversity
    Wealth also produces severe environmental
    impacts
    • The population problem does not exist only within
    poor countries
    • Affluent societies have enormous resource
    consumption and waste production
    – People use resources from other areas, as well as from their
    own
    – Individuals’ ecological footprints are huge

    One American has as much environmental impact as 6 Chinese or


    12 Indians or Ethiopians
    The wealth gap and population growth cause conflict
    • The stark contrast between affluent and poor societies
    causes social and environmental stress
    • The richest 20% use 86% of the world’s resources
    – Leaves 14% of the resources for 80% of the world’s
    people to share
    • Tensions between “haves” and “have-not’s” are increasing
    Human Carrying Capacity
    • The maximum number of people the Earth
    can sustain without decreasing its capability to
    sustain same number in future.
    How to maintain
    populations, provide
    adequate standard of
    living and not destroy the
    environment. THIS IS
    THE QUESTION
    The Precautionary Principle
    • Take precautionary steps rather than wait for
    solid scientific evidence that actions/policies
    are not sustainable

    • Proactive, not reactive

    • Socioeconomic implications
    Human Population Growth - You should know:

    Impact of birth rate and death rate on population growth projections


    Concept of doubling time
    Where most population growth is and will be occurring
    Logistic growth curve (lag, exponential, and equilibrium phases)
    Age structure of developing, developed, and mature/decreasing
    populations
    Demographic transition
    Factors influencing carrying capacity
    Ways to limit population growth
    Relationship between pop. size and population impact

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