Chapter 6

Continuous Random Variables

McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2014 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Continuous Random Variables
6.1 Continuous Probability Distributions
6.2 The Uniform Distribution
6.3 The Normal Probability Distribution
6.4 Approximating the Binomial Distribution
by Using the Normal Distribution
(Optional)
6.5 The Exponential Distribution (Optional)
6.6 The Normal Probability Plot (Optional)

6-2
LO6-1: Define a
continuous probability
distribution and explain
how it is used. 6.1 Continuous Probability
Distributions
 A continuous random variable may assume
any numerical value in one or more intervals
◦ For example, time spent waiting in line
 Use a continuous probability distribution to
assign probabilities to intervals of values

6-3
LO6-1

Continuous Probability Distributions

Continued

 The curve f(x) is the continuous probability

distribution of the random variable x if the
probability that x will be in a specified
interval of numbers is the area under the
curve f(x) corresponding to the interval
 Other names for a continuous probability
distribution:
◦ Probability curve
◦ Probability density function

6-4
Example
 Suppose that the fast-food restaurant will study
the temperature of the coffee being dispensed at
one of its locations.
 A temperature measurement is taken at a
randomly selected time during each of the 24
half-hour periods from 8 A.M. to 7:30 P.M. on a
given day.
 This is then repeated on a second day, giving the
48 coffee temperatures in Figure 6.1(a). Figure
6.1(b) shows a percent frequency histogram of
the coffee temperatures.
48 Coffee Temperatures
Histogram and Normal Curve of Coffe
Temperatures
Discussion
 Because the coffee temperature histogram
looks like a normal curve, it is reasonable to
conclude that x, the temperature of a
randomly selected cup of coffee at the fast-
food restaurant, is described by a normal
probability distribution.
 It follows that the probability that x will be
between 153° and 167° is the area under the
coffee temperature normal curve between
153 and 167.
 In Section 6.3, where we discuss the normal
curve in detail, we will find that this area is
.7223.
 That is, in probability notation: P(153 ≤ x ≤ 167)
= .7223 (see the blue area in Figure 6.1(c)).
 In conclusion, we estimate that 72.23 percent of
the coffee served at the restaurant is within the
range of temperatures that is best and 27.77
percent of the coffee served is not in this range.
Properties of Continuous Probability
Distributions
 We know that any probability is 0 or
positive, and we also know that the
probability assigned to all possible values of
x must be 1.
 It follows that, similar to the conditions
required for a discrete probability
distribution, a probability curve must satisfy
the following:
LO6-1
Properties of Continuous Probability
Distributions
 Properties of f(x): f(x) is a continuous
function such that
1. f(x) ≥ 0 for all x
2. The total area under the f(x) curve is equal to 1
 Essential point: An area under a continuous
probability distribution is a probability

6-11
LO6-1

Area and Probability

 The blue area under the curve f(x) from x=a
to x=b is the probability that x could take any
value in the range a to b
◦ In the figure below, a=153 and b=167
 Symbolized as P(a  x  b)
 Or as P(a < x < b), because each of the
interval endpoints has a probability of 0

Figure 6.1c 6-12

LO6-1

Distribution Shapes
 Symmetrical and rectangular
◦ The uniform distribution (Section 6.2)
 Symmetrical and bell-shaped
◦ The normal distribution (Section 6.3)
 Skewed
◦ Skewed either left or right (Section 6.5)

6-13
LO6-2: Use the uniform
distribution to compute
probabilities.

6.2 The Uniform Distribution

 If c and d are numbers on the real line (c < d), the
probability curve describing the uniform
distribution is
 1
 for c  x  d
f x =  d  c
0
 otherwise
 The probability that x is any value between the
values a and b (a < b) is
ba
Pa  x  b  
d c
 Note: The number ordering is c < a < b < d

6-14
6.2 The Uniform Distribution

 Suppose that over a period of several days the

manager of a large hotel has recorded the
waiting times of 1,000 people waiting for an
elevator in the lobby at dinner time (5:00 P.M.
to 7:00 P.M.).
 The observed waiting times range from zero to
four minutes.
 Furthermore, when the waiting times are
arranged into a histogram, the bars making up
the histogram have approximately equal heights,
giving the histogram a rectangular appearance
 This implies that the relative frequencies of
all waiting times from zero to four minutes
are about the same.
 Therefore, it is reasonable to use the
continuous uniform distribution to describe
the random variable x, the amount of time a
randomly selected hotel patron spends
waiting for an elevator
 Noting that this equation is graphed in Figure
6.2(a), suppose that the hotel manager feels
that an elevator waiting time of 2.5 minutes
or more is unacceptably long.
 Therefore, to find the probability that a hotel
patron will wait too long, the manager
wishes to find the probability that a
randomly selected patron will spend at least
2.5 minutes waiting for an elevator
 This probability is the area under the curve
f(x) that corresponds to the interval [2.5, 4].
As shown in Figure 6.2(a), this probability is
the area of a rectangle having a base equal to
4 - 2.5 = 1.5 and a height equal to 1/4. That
is,
P(x ≥ 2.5 ) = P(2.5 ≤ x ≤ 4) = base x height
= 1.5 x 1/4 = .375
Interpretation
 This says that 37.5 percent of all hotel
patrons will spend at least 2.5 minutes
waiting for an elevator at dinnertime.
 Based on this result, the hotel manager
would probably decide that too many patrons
are waiting too long for an elevator and that
action should be taken to reduce elevator
waiting times.
LO6-2

The Uniform Distribution Continued

 The mean mX and standard deviation sX of a

uniform random variable x are
cd
mX 
2
d c
sX 
12
 These are the parameters of the uniform
distribution with endpoints c and d (c < d)

6-23
LO6-2

The Uniform Probability Curve

Figure 6.2b 6-27

LO6-2

Notes on the Uniform Distribution

 The uniform distribution is symmetrical
◦ Symmetrical about its center μX
◦ μX is the median
 The uniform distribution is rectangular
◦ For endpoints c and d (c < d) the width of the
distribution is d – c and the height is
1/(d – c)
◦ The area under the entire uniform distribution is 1
 Because width  height = (d – c)  [1/(d – c)] = 1
 So P(c  x  d) = 1

6-28
LO6-3: Describe the
properties of the normal
distribution and use a
cumulative normal table. 6.3 The Normal Probability
Distribution
 The normal probability distribution is
defined by the equation
2
1  x m 
1   
2 s 
f( x) = e
σ 2π

for all values x on the real number line

◦ σ is the mean and σ is the standard deviation
◦ π = 3.14159… and e = 2.71828 is the base of
natural logarithms

6-29
LO6-3

The Normal Probability Distribution

Continued

 The normal curve is symmetrical

about its mean m
◦ The mean is in the middle under the
curve
◦ So m is also the median
 It is tallest over its mean m
 The area under the entire normal
curve is 1
◦ The area under either half of the curve
is 0.5

Figure 6.3 6-30

LO6-3

Properties of the Normal Distribution

 There are an infinite number of normal curves
◦ The shape of any individual normal curve depends on its
specific mean μ and standard deviation σ
 The highest point is over the mean
 Mean = median = mode
◦ All measures of central tendency equal each other
◦ The only probability distribution for which this is true
 The curve is symmetrical about its mean
◦ The left and right halves of the curve are mirror images

6-31
LO6-3

Properties of the Normal Distribution

Continued

 The tails of the normal extend to infinity in

both directions
◦ The tails get closer to the horizontal axis but
never touch it
 The area under the normal curve to the right
of the mean equals the area under the normal
to the left of the mean
◦ The area under each half is 0.5

6-32
LO6-3
The Position and Shape of the Normal
Curve

(a) The mean m positions the peak of the normal curve over the real axis
(b) The variance s2 measures the width or spread of the normal curve

Figure 6.4 6-33

LO6-3

Normal Probabilities
 Suppose x is a normally distributed random
variable with mean μ and standard deviation
σ
 The probability that x could take any value
in the range between two given values a and
b (a < b) is P(a ≤ x ≤ b)
 P(a ≤ x ≤ b) is the area colored in blue under
the normal curve and between the values x =
a and x = b

Figure 6.5 6-34

LO6-3

Three Important Percentages

Figure 6.6 6-35

LO6-3

The Standard Normal Distribution

 If x is normally distributed with mean μ and
standard deviation σ, then the random
variable z
xm
z
s
is normally distributed with mean 0 and
standard deviation 1
 This normal is called the standard normal
distribution

6-36
LO6-3
The Standard Normal Distribution
Continued
 z measures the number of standard
deviations that x is from the mean m
 The algebraic sign on z indicates on which
side of μ is x
 z is positive if x > μ (x is to the right of μ on
the number line)
 z is negative if x < μ (x is to the left of μ on
the number line)

Figure 6.7 6-37

LO6-3

The Standard Normal Table

 The standard normal table is a table that lists
the area under the standard normal curve to
the right of negative infinity up to the z value
of interest
◦ Table 6.1
◦ Other standard normal tables will display the area
between the mean of zero and the z value of
interest
 Always look at the accompanying figure for
guidance on how to use the table
6-38
LO6-3

The Standard Normal Table Continued

 The values of z (accurate to the nearest

tenth) in the table range from –3.99 to 3.99
in increments of 0.01
◦ z accurate to tenths are listed in the far left
column
◦ The hundredths digit of z is listed across the top
of the table
 The area under the normal curve to the right
of negative infinity up to any value of z are
given in the body of the table

6-39
LO6-3

A Standard Normal Table

Table 6.1 (partial) 6-40

LO6-4: Use the normal
distribution to compute
probabilities.

Find P(0 ≤ z ≤ 1)
 Find the area listed in the table corresponding to a z
value of 1.00
 Starting from the top of the far left column, go
down to “1.0”
 Read across the row z = 1.0 until under the column
headed by “.00”
 The area is in the cell that is the intersection of this
row with this column
 As listed in the table, the area is 0.8413, so
 P(– ≤ z ≤ 1) = 0.8413
 P(0 ≤ z ≤ 1) = P(– ≤ z ≤ 1) – 0.5000 = 0.3413

6-41
LO6-4

Calculating P(z ≥ 2.53)

 This is called a right-hand tail area
 Total area under curve is one
 Table gives us area up to two
[P(z=2)=0.9772]
 To get area to right, subtract from one
 1–0.9772=0.0228

Figure 6.10 6-42

LO6-4

Calculating P(z > -2)

 An example of finding the area under the
standard normal curve to the right of a
negative z value
 Shown is finding the under the standard
normal for z ≥ -2

Figure 6.12 6-43

LO6-4

Calculating P(1 ≤ z ≤ 2)

Figure 6.14 6-44

LO6-5: Find population
values that correspond
to specified normal
distribution probabilities.
Finding Normal Probabilities
1. Formulate the problem in terms of x values
2. Calculate the corresponding z values, and restate
the problem in terms of these z values
3. Find the required areas under the standard normal
curve by using the table

Note: It is always useful to draw a picture showing

the required areas before using the normal table

6-45
LO6-5
Some Areas under the Standard Normal
Curve

Figure 6.15 6-46

Sample Problem
LO6-5

Finding a Tolerance Interval

Finding a tolerance interval [m  ks] that
contains 99% of the measurements in a
normal population

Figure 6.23 6-54

LO6-6: Use the normal
distribution to
approximate binomial
probabilities (Optional). 6.4 Approximating the Binomial Distribution
by Using the Normal Distribution (Optional)
 The figure below shows several binomial
distributions
 Can see that as n gets larger and as p gets
closer to 0.5, the graph of the binomial
distribution tends to have the symmetrical,
bell-shaped, form of the normal curve

Figure 6.24 6-55

LO6-6

Normal Approximation to the Binomial

Continued

 Generalize observation from last slide for

large p
 Suppose x is a binomial random variable,
where n is the number of trials, each having a
probability of success p
◦ Then the probability of failure is 1 – p
 If n and p are such that np  5 and
n(1–p)  5, then x is approximately normal
with

m  np and s  np1  p 
6-56
LO6-7: Use the
exponential distribution
to compute probabilities
(Optional).
6.5 The Exponential Distribution
(Optional)

 Suppose that some event occurs as a Poisson

process
◦ That is, the number of times an event occurs is a
Poisson random variable
 Let x be the random variable of the interval
between successive occurrences of the event
◦ The interval can be some unit of time or space
 Then x is described by the exponential
distribution
◦ With parameter , which is the mean number of
events that can occur per given interval
6-57
LO6-7

The Exponential Distribution Continued

 If  is the mean number of events per given

interval, then the equation of the exponential
distribution is

e x for x  0
f x = 

0 otherwise
 The probability that x is any value between
given values a and b (a<b) is
Pa  x  b   e  a  e  b
and
Px  c   1  e c and Px  c   e c
6-58
LO6-7

The Exponential Distribution #3

The mean mX and standard deviation sX of an
exponential random variable x are

mX  1 and s X  1
 

Figure 6.27 6-59

LO6-8: Use a normal
probability plot to help
decide whether data
come from a normal
distribution (Optional).
6.6 The Normal Probability Plot
 A graphic used to visually check to see if
sample data comes from a normal
distribution
 A straight line indicates a normal distribution
 The more curved the line, the less normal the
data is

6-60
LO6-8

Creating a Normal Probability Plot

1. Rank order the data from smallest to largest
2. For each data point, compute the value i/(n+1)
◦ i is the data point’s position on the list
3. For each data point, compute the standardized
normal quantile value (Oi)
◦ Oi is the z value that gives an area i/(n+1) to its left
4. Plot data points against Oi
5. Straight line indicates normal distribution

Figure 6.30 6-61