The document discusses market analysis and demand forecasting. It describes estimating market size and demand, understanding the business cycle stage of a market, identifying product niches, and assessing competition. The goals are to help businesses determine if they can enter a market successfully and generate profits. Demand forecasting methods are described along with challenges in forecasting due to data limitations and inability to predict environmental changes.
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Demand Analysis
The document discusses market analysis and demand forecasting. It describes estimating market size and demand, understanding the business cycle stage of a market, identifying product niches, and assessing competition. The goals are to help businesses determine if they can enter a market successfully and generate profits. Demand forecasting methods are described along with challenges in forecasting due to data limitations and inability to predict environmental changes.
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Wk 2 – April 29
Estimating the potential size of the market
for the product proposed to be manufactured and get an idea about the market share that is likely to be captured understanding how much consumer demand exists for a product or service. Helps management determine if they can successfully enter a market and generate enough profits to advance their business operations. Situational analysis and specification of objectives Collection of secondary information Conduct of market survey Characterization of the Market Demand Forecasting Formulation of the Market Plan Market identification Business cycle Product niche Growth Potential Competition Define and identify the specific market to target with new products or services. Market surveys or consumer feedback to determine their satisfaction with current products and services. Comments indicating dissatisfaction will lead businesses to develop new products or services to meet this consumer demand. Current product line vs business expansion possibilities. Assessment what stage of the business cycle the market is in.
Three stages exist in the business cycle:
Emerging - indicate higher consumer demand and low supply of current products or services Plateau - the break-even level of the market, where the supply of goods meets current market demand Declining - indicate lagging consumer demand for the goods or services supplied by businesses. Development of product that meets a specific niche in the market. Products must be differentiated from others in the market so they meet a specific need of consumer demand Conducting tests in sample markets to determine which of their potential product styles is most preferred by consumers. Develop of goods and services so that competitors cannot easily duplicate their product. Products or goods specialization can create a sense of usefulness, which will increase demand. Examples of specialized products are iPods or iPhones, which entered the personal electronics market and increased demand through their perceived usefulness by consumers. Type of demand which quickly increases the demand for current markets, allowing companies to increase profits through new consumer demand Factor of market analysis which determine the number of competitors and their current market share. Markets in the emerging stage of the business cycle tend to have fewer competitors, meaning a higher profit margin may be earned by companies. Once a market becomes saturated with competing companies and products, fewer profits are achieved and companies will begin to lose money. As markets enter the declining business cycle, companies will conduct a new market analysis to find more profitable markets An attempt made to estimate future demand. Categories of Demand Forecasting Qualitative Methods Time series projection Methods Causal Methods Jury of executive opinion Method Chain ratio Method Consumption level Method Demand forecasts are subject to error and uncertainty which from three principal source: 1. Data about past and present market.
2. Method of forecasting
3. Environmental Change The analysis of past and present markets serves as the springboard for the projection exercise Lack of Standardization
Few observations
Influence of abnormal factors
Methods used for demand forecasting are characterized by the following limitations: Inability to handle unquantifiable factors Unrealistic assumptions Exercise data requirement Technological Change Shift in Government Policy Development on the International Scene Discovery of New Sources of Raw Material Predictability of the Weather THANK YOU