Lecture Systems Thinking
Lecture Systems Thinking
Lecture Systems Thinking
to
Systems Thinking
The significant problems we face today
cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking at which they were created.
Albert Einstein
A system is a group of interacting, interrelated, and interdependent
components that form a complex and unified
whole. R. Ross
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WHAT IS SYSTEMS THINKING?
Founded in 1956 by MIT professor, Jay Forrester.
System thinking allows people to make their understanding
of social system explicit and improve them in the same
way that people use engineering principles to improve their
understanding of mechanical system.
It is use to:-
1-4
Complex systems, such as social systems, are comprised of
numerous subsystems, as well. These subsystems are integrated
to accomplish the overall goal of the larger system. Each
subsystem has its own boundaries of sorts, and includes various
inputs, processes, outputs and outcomes geared to accomplish an
overall goal for the subsystem.
1-5
SYSTEM THINKING APPROACH
WHOLE PARTS
Holistic Thinking
!!!
?? ??
Multiple (often)
restricted views
Systems Thinking
Learning to see the world systemically
http://www.systems-thinking.org/theWay/theWay.htm
System
A system is an interrelated set of business procedures
used within one business unit working together for a
purpose
A system has (six to) nine characteristics
A system exists within an environment
A boundary separates a system from its environment
System Components
Interrelated Components
Boundary
Purpose
Environment
Interfaces
Input
Output
Constraints
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Characteristics of a System
1 - 14
Systems Thinking
Important System Concepts
Decomposition
-- The process of breaking down a system into smaller
components
-- Allows the systems analyst to:
Break a system into small, manageable subsystems
Focus on one area at a time
Concentrate on component pertinent to one group of users
Build different components at independent times
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Systems Thinking
Important System Concepts
Modularity
Process of dividing a system into modules of a relatively uniform size
Modules simplify system design
Coupling
Subsystems that are dependent upon each other are coupled
Cohesion
Extent to which a subsystem performs a single function
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Systems Thinking
Important System Concepts
1 - 17
A (Partial) List of the Laws of Systems Thinking
Solutions that merely shift the problems from one part of the system to
another often go undetected because those who solved the first
problem are different folks than those who inherit the problem.
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A (Partial) List of the Laws of Systems Thinking
1 - 19
A (Partial) List of the Laws of Systems Thinking
1 - 20
A (Partial) List of the Laws of Systems Thinking
1 - 21
SYSTEMS THINKING TOOLS
S's and O's - show the way one variable moves or changes
in relation to another
S or + stands for "same direction
O or - stands for "opposite direction
Employee
Supportive
Performance Perf. Behavior
S Level
Unsupportive
Supervisors
Behavior
Supportive
Behavior Time
Types of Causal Loop Diagrams
Balancing Loop
100 ++
S
Desired Inventory
Actual Inventory 100
Time
SYSTEMS THINKING ARCHETYPES
Problem Fix
Symptom
O
Delay
S S
Time
Unintended
Consequences
1. Fixes that Fail
Example:
An example would be fixing problem of a squeaky
wheel. Imagine someone who knows nothing about
mechanics, mistakenly grab a can of water and
splash it on the wheel. With great relief the
squeaking stop for a while, it will
return more loudly as
the water join forces
to rust the joint.
1. Fixes that Fail
Prescriptive actions:
Increase awareness of the unintended
consequences
Cut back on the frequency with which you apply
the fix
Try to minimize the undesirable consequences
Reframe and address the root problem, give up the
fix that works only on the symtom
Breaking fixes that fail merely alleviating a
symptom, not really solving the problem. A two
pronged attack of applying fix and finding
fundamental solution will help to break the
problem.
2. Limits to Growth
Burnout
S
Time
2. Limits to Growth
2. Limits to Growth
Example:
At the beginning of a quality improvement campaign,
significant gains in quality and productivity were
achieved. Once this achieved, the level of
improvements plateaus.
The next wave of improvements
are more complex and tougher to
manage. Later the lack of
organization-wide support leads to
limited/diminishing quality and
productivity of the whole organization (it becomes
stagnant or diminish).
2. Limits to Growth
Prescriptive actions:
Beware of doing more of what worked in the past.
If your growth has stalled, look at both reinforcing
and balancing loops to try to find interrelationships
between your success strategies and potential
limits.
Look for other potential engines of growth.
The real leverage in limits to growth scenario lies in
its early phases.
The choice between plateauing or peaking often
depends on length of balancing loop delay and our
response to it.
3. Shifting the Burden
Quick fixes Behavior Over Time
+
_ + Efforts Quick fix
_
Problem symptom
Problem/symptom Side effects
+
_ Capacity of system
_ to fix itself
+
Time
Source of problem
/Root cause _
3. Shifting the Burden
Apply Patches Behavior Over Time
+
_ + Apply patches
_
Damage of road
Damage of Road Feeling of Okay
+
_ Proper road
_ construction
+
Proper Road Time
Contruction _
3. Shifting the Burden
Example:
Problem of pot holes on the road. The problem is
handled by applying patches with immediate effect,
thereby solving the problem for a while. The primary
source of the problem is overlooked, that is the
overall quality of the road construction.
The origin of the problem
should be identified and
solved in the long-term run
or else the quality of the
road will be further
diminished.
3. Shifting the Burden
Prescriptive actions:
Strengthen the long-term solution.
If possible, support only long-term solution. If
you must address the symtoms right away, do so
with restraint.
As you strengthen long-term capability, do what
you can to reduce dependency on the short-term
fix.
4. Tragedy of the Commons
Net Gains
S
for A
S Resource A
As Activity S Limit
S S
O
Gain per Time
Total Activity Individual
S Activity
S B
Bs Activity
S
Net Gains
S Time
for B
4. Tragedy of the Commons
Fixed S Investment
Budget in features
S
O Success from
Product
Investment O A
Investment S
in Integration
S Perceived Time
DELAY Success from
Integration
Investment
in Integration S B
Success from
Product O
O Investment
Time
S
Fixed Investment
S
Budget in features
4. Tragedy of the Commons
Example:
Traffic jam in Kuala Lumpur. Everyone wishes to avoid
traffic jam will use the highway. At first there is room
for everyone, but after sometimes critical threshold has
been reached, each driver brings about
decrease in average speed.
Goal Pressure to
Lower Goal
S
S Goal
Gap
Time
S
O
Delay
5. Drifting Goals
O
S
Temperature Temp
Gap
S Time
O
Hop Out
5. Drifting Goals
Example:
If you put a frog in cold water and slowly bring
the water to boil the frog will jump out when it
gets uncomfortable or even died in the boiling
water
If you put a frog in boiling water,
it will croak IMMEDIATELY.
5. Drifting Goals
Prescriptive actions:
Pesticide O Insects
Application Damaging Crops
1. The letter indicates how the two variables are related: an s means they
change in the same direction - if one goes up then the other goes up, and
an o means they change in the opposite direction - if one goes up then
the other goes down (or vice versa).
2. This diagram is read a change in the amount of pesticide applied causes
the number of insects damaging crops to change in the opposite
direction.
3. The belief being represented here is that as the amount of pesticide
applied increases, the number of insects damaging crops decreases.
Reducing Crop Damage by Insects:
Number of Insect A
Damaging Crop
O
O
Number of Insect B
Pesticide
Application
Number of Insect B
S Damaging Crop
Total number of
Insects damaging crop
S
Reducing Crop Damage by Insects:
4. The problem of crop damage due to insects often does get better - in the
short term.
5. Unfortunately, what frequently happens is that in following years the
problem of crop damage gets worse and worse and the pesticide that
formerly seemed so effective does not seem to help anymore.
6. This is because the insect A that was eating the crops was controlling the
population of another insect B, either by preying on it or by competing with
it.
7. When the pesticide kills the insects A that were eating the crops, it
eliminates the control that those insects were applying on the population of
the other insects, insects B).
8. Then the population of the insects B that were being controlled explodes
and continue to damage the crops.
Reducing Crop Damage by Insects:
The solution:
Personal
Mastery
Team
Learning
References
Warfield, J. Societal Systems, Intersystems, 1989.
Joseph OConnor & Ian McDermott. The Art of Systems Thinking,
Thorsons, 1997.
Senge, P.M.
The Fifth Discipline: The Art & Practice of the Learning Organization,
Doubleday, 1990.
The Fifth Discipline Fieldbook: Strategies and Tools for Building A
Learning Organization, Doubleday, 1994.
System Dynamics / Systems Thinking Mega Link List
http://www.uni-klu.ac.at/users/gossimit/links/bookmksd.htm
The Way of Systems (System Archetypes)
http://www.outsights.com/systems/theWay/theWay.htm
Daniel Aronson, Overview of Systems Thinking, 1996-8
http://www.thinking.net