MODELLING AND SIMULATION

What Is Modeling and Simulation?

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 1. What Is Modeling and Simulation?
Introduction
Models: Approximations of Real-World Events
A Brief History of Modeling and Simulation
Application Areas
Using Modeling and Simulation: Advantages and
Disadvantages
Conclusion

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 MODELS: APPROXIMATIONS OF REAL - WORLD EVENTS

Models are approximations for the real - world.

1. Create a model approximating an event.
2. The model is then followed by simulation, which allows for the repeated
observation of the model.
3. Analysis aids in the ability to draw conclusions, verify and validate the research,
and make recommendations based on various iterations or simulations of the
model.
4. Visualization, the ability to represent data as a way to interface with the model,
make M & S a problem - based discipline that allows for repeated testing of a
hypothesis.

M & S also serves as a tool or application that expands the

ability to analyze and communicate new research or findings.
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 What Is Modeling and Simulation (M&S)?
A model is a representation of an event and/or things that is real (a case study) or
contrived (a use - case). It can be a representation of an actual system. It can be
something used in lieu of the real thing to better understand a certain aspect
about that thing. To produce a model you must abstract from reality a description
of a vibrant system. The model can depict the system at some point of abstraction
or at multiple levels of the abstraction with the goal of representing the system in
a mathematically reliable fashion.

A simulation is an applied methodology that can describe the behavior of that

system using either a mathematical model or a symbolic model . Simply,
simulation is the imitation of the operation of a real-world process or system over
a period of time. As you will see there are many uses of M & S. M & S can be used
to determine the ordering policies of Wal-Mars extensive inventory system, or it
can be used to analyze the prospects and rate of rehabilitation of a patient who
just underwent knee-replacement surgery, or it can be used to evaluate ocean
05:42currents and waves to better understand weather patterns. 05.42 4
 What Is Modeling and Simulation (M&S)?
STEPS INVOLVE:
1) developing computer simulation or a design based on a model of an actual or theoretical physical
system,
2) executing that model on a digital computer, and
3) analyzing the output.

Models and the ability to act out with those models is a credible way of understanding the complexity
and particulars of a real entity

Example: Number of cashiers are needed to process a certain number of customers during rush hour
Do the customers feel rushed? How many errors are made?

Do the customer lines flow smoothly? Are the cash registers placed in good locations?

Once you have sufficient data you can create your model. It is important to note that models are
driven by data and so your data collection must be done with great accuracy.
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There may be unexpected changes to the model
1. a cashier is out sick,
2. a cash register breaks,
3. the power goes out and stops all transactions.
What can the manager do to accommodate these unforeseen occurrences?
Simulation is not as clear-cut as defining model. Definitions of simulation range from:
a method for implementing a model over time
a technique for testing, analysis, or training in which real-world systems are used, or where real-world
and conceptual systems are reproduced by a model
an unobtrusive scientific method of inquiry involving experiments with a model rather than with the
portion of reality that the model represents
a methodology for extracting information from a model by observing the behavior of the model as it is
executed
a nontechnical term meaning not real, imitation (the correct word here is the adjective simulated)
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 Simulation is used when the real system cannot be engaged. The real system may not be engaged because
1) it may not be accessible,
2) it may be dangerous to engage the system,
3) it may be unacceptable to engage the system, or
4) the system may simply not exist.

SYSTEM by the International Council of Systems Engineering (INCOSE). A system is a construct or

collection of different elements that together produce results not obtainable by the elements alone.

Number of ways to study a system:

the actual system versus a model of the system
a physical versus mathematical representation
analytical solution versus simulation solution (which exercises the simulation for inputs in question to
see how they affect the output measures of performance)

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 A BRIEF HISTORY OF MODELING AND SIMULATION

The act of wargames and challenging or outwitting an opponent on the battlefield is centuries old.
The Roman Army the greatest military the world had known for centuries (circa 500 B.C.E. 1500 C.E.).

During the age of the Renaissance (1200 1600 C.E), models were presented to the artist s patron or
commissioner as a way of seeking approval of a design before beginning an expensive project such as a
marble bust or sarcophagus.

Leonardo worked as a military engineer where he was called upon to design a bridge to span the Golden
Horn (a freshwater waterway dividing the city) in Constantinople (modern day Istanbul).

The game of chess, had its origins in southern Europe In 1997 an IBM chess playing computer named Deep Blue
in the second half of the 15th century. Which was a won against the Russian world champion Garry Kasparov
derivation of a 7th century game of Indian origin. after he made a blunder in the opening of the last game.

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In the 1780s, with England at the height of its naval power, a Scotsman named
John Clerk developed a method of using model ships to gain tactical insights.

Prussia became a great European power during the latter half of the century
under the reign of Frederick II (1740 1786).
In 1883 he translated the German rules to a wargame they had developed based
on the American Civil War and Prussia s own wars of 1866 and 1870 1871.
By the turn of the 20th century wargames made their way into U.S. military
exercises and training.
In the post World War I period the Navy and the Marine Corps both employed
wargames as part of their training.
the Department of Defense was given the approval to invest funds for research
in air defense systems. By the winter of 1949 digital computers were engaged in
creating simulated combat
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 By the 1950s computers were being used to generate model behavior followed
by simulation programs done by MIT.
In 1961 a student at MIT created an interactive computer game called Spacewar
[11] . The game required the player to operate his spaceship during a confl ict
that was fought with the fi ring of torpedoes. Pilots of the spaceships scored
points by launching.
By 1983 simulator networking was advancing rapidly. The Defense Advanced
Research Projects Agency (DARPA) had initiated simulator networking
SIMNET with an emphasis on tactical team performance on the battlefield.

In February a decisive tank battle was in progress. The Battle of 73 Easting was fought between armored forces of
the U.S. Army and the Iraqi Republican Guard. The U.S. ground unit was outnumbered and outgunned; yet, it was
able to affect the enemy by destroying 85 tanks, 40 personnel carriers, and 30 wheeled vehicles carrying anti -
aircraft artillery. Why was this outnumbered and outgunned U.S. armored unit able to conduct itself with such
precision and success? The answer is because this unit had trained intensively before the engagement using
SIMNET.
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 Advancements in computer software and hardware as well as artifi cial intelligence and software
agents have hastened the pace of the maturation of M & S as a discipline and tool.

These additional elements that now comprise M & S enhance the capabilities of simulation for
more complex phenomena such as the human personality in social and conflictual simulations

It was not long, however, before the explosive growth of computer games for entertainment and
the emergence of new uses for M & S shifted the focus of the industry

Today, M & S can be found in just about every research and training institution or venue.
M & S is being used in:
medical and health - care fields,
logistics and transportation,
manufacturing and distribution,
communications, and
virtual reality and gaming applications for both entertainment and education

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 APPLICATION AREAS

Once a primary training mechanism for the military, modeling and simulation is now
being used in a variety of domains to include medical modeling, emergency
management, crowd modeling, transportation, game - based learning, and
engineering design to name a few.

M & S applications are used primarily for analysis, experimentation, and training.
1. Analysis refers to the investigation of the model s behavior.
2. Experimentation occurs when the behavior of the model changes under conditions that exceed the
design boundaries of the model.
3. Training is the development of knowledge, skills, and abilities obtained as one operates the system
represented by the model.
As we can see, M & S is multi - faceted and it can be used as a tool, an enabling technology.
It is this property that allows us to use M & S in many disciplines. What is becoming more and more
apparent to traditional producers and users of M & S is that there is a richness of the possibilities and
synergies with related disciplines

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 Stand - alone simulation learn by doing or train as your operate

Training goal is to provide real - world experience/opportunities in a controlled environment

Decision Support to provide a descriptive, explanatory, predictive tool or to provide an

evaluative, prescriptive tool

Understanding this type of modeling and simulation facilitates testing a hypothesis relative to
the structure and function of a complex system

Education and Learning used for teaching and learning systems with dynamic behavior and with
serious gaming (this is also called game based learning)

Entertainment simulation provides a realistic representation for elements possessing dynamic

behavior

Integrated simulation is used to enrich and support real systems

Another example of Stand alone Simulation for Training is the virtual simulation with limited
environmental interactions used to develop the motor skills of the user
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 Transportation M & S APPLICATION AREAS
The systems have become so complex that a seemingly minor adjustment to the timing of a traffic light in one
part of the city can have a drastic effect on traffi c movement miles away.
Large - scale regional traffic simulations, known as Macroscopic Traffi c Simulations , are capable of
showing the effects of these changes on very complex networks of roadways covering large regional areas
Microscopic Traffi c Simulations, those that model the individual movement of cars based on physics
parameters such as velocity and acceleration, are employed to study smaller sections of roadway such as a
particular intersection or a certain road corridor

Business M & S
To address diverse complex and relevant enterprise issues it is necessary to bring together a multi - disciplinary
team having expertise in operations management, operations research, industrial engineering, modeling and
simulation, marketing, economics, decision science, and mathematics.
1. M & S in Manufacturing Enterprise Engineering ( M & S - MEE ) a ddresses research on design, planning, and
control of operations in manufacturing enterprises. Contributions extend the range of analytical and
computational techniques addressed to these systems, and novel models offering policy knowledge of applicable
solutions in manufacturing environments.

2. M & S in Operations Research ( M & S - OR ) addresses research on progress in the structures and properties of
models and procedures derived from studying operations. The focus of the cluster is on researching, creating,
and/or improving analytical and computational techniques while emphasizing the relevance of the work in signifi
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cant applications.
 3. M & S in Service Enterprise Engineering ( M & S - SEE ) addresses research on design, planning, and control of
operations and processes in commercial and institutional service enterprises.

Medical M & S
Multi - disciplinary team having expertise in clinical medicine, modeling and simulation, engineering
(mechanical, electrical, biomedical), exercise science and athletic training, human factors psychology, computer
science, epidemiology, biology, mathematics, and tumor biology

1. M & S for Improved Training of Medical Professionals Several recent studies have shown that the U.S. health care
system is not as safe as it should be. It has been estimated that medical errors contribute to as many as
98,000 195,000 deaths annually in U.S. hospitals with a cost to society of $ 37 billion. These systems allow
trainees to learn fundamental procedures without putting patients at risk, can expose trainees to rare or
unusual conditions, and reduce the need for cadavers and animal models.

2. M & S to Improve Treatment The treatment of disease and injury is primarily based on the experience of the
physician who is treating the problem, which may result in treatment failures, unsatisfactory results, and
unnecessary treatments. M & S can be used to develop new treatments, assist in decision making, and to
optimize treatment.

3. Disease Modeling Multi - scale simulation models can provide opportunities to develop theories to explain the
spread of disease, tumor metastasis, and the effectiveness of vaccination.
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Social Science M & S
For social scientists the traditional methods of modeling include statistical modeling, formal modeling, and agent -
based modeling.

Statistical modeling is the traditional method for the discovery and interpretation of patterns in large numbers of
events.

Formal modeling is a method that provides a rigorous analytic specification of the choices actors can make and how
those choices interact to produce outcomes.

Agent - based simulation modeling allows for the observation of aggregate behaviors that emerge from the
interactions of large numbers of autonomous actors.

Research from the Department of Defense is now requiring the incorporation of

geopolitics, culture, religion, and political economy to better understand how
Diplomatic, Intelligence, Military, and Economic (DIME) factors affect real - time,
tactical decision - making. A growing area of research for the Department of Defense is
centered on Political, Military, Economic, Security, Information, and Infrastructure
(PMESII) aspects.

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 USING MODELING AND SIMULATION: ADVANTAGES AND DISADVANTAGES

develop understanding by observing how a system

the ability to choose correctly by testing every aspect of a operates rather than predictions about how it will
proposed change without committing additional operate
resources visualize the plan with the use of animation to
compress and expand time to allow the user to speed up observe the system or organization actually
or slow - down behavior or phenomena to facilitate in - operating
depth research build consensus for an objective opinion because
understand why by reconstructing the scenario and M & S can avoid inferences
examining the scenario closely by controlling the system prepare for change by answering the what if in
explore possibilities in the context of policies, operating the design or modifi cation of the system
procedures, methods without disrupting the actual or invest wisely because a simulated study costs
real system much less than the cost of changing or modifying
diagnose problems by understanding the interaction a system
among variables that make up complex systems better training can be done less expensively and
identify constraints by reviewing delays on process, with less disruption than on - the - job training
information, materials to ascertain whether or not the specify requirements for a system design that can
constraint is the effect or cause be modifi ed to reach the desired goal

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