CH 2 Part 1
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Belayneh TadesseCH 2 Part 1
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Belayneh TadesseECEg4251: Power System & Planning
Power System Planning & Operation
Chapter 2
Load Forecasting
Introduction
First step in planning
Power system expansion planning starts with a forecast of anticipated
future load requirements.
Forecasting refers to the prediction of the load behavior for the future.
Load forecasting is way of estimating what future electric load
will be for a given forecast horizon based on the available
information about the state of the system.
Defines future loads in sufficient quantitative detail to permit
important system expansion decisions to be made.
Contd
demand and consumption are also used instead of load.
Basic parameters of a load: both power (MW, kW) and energy (MWh,
kWh)
Estimates of both demand and energy requirements are crucial to
effective system planning.
Demand Forecasts: used to determine the capacity of generation,
transmission, and distribution system additions
Energy Forecasts: used to determine the types of facilities required.
Load forecasts are also used to establish procurement policies for
constructional capital energy forecasts, which are needed to determine
future fuel requirements
Contd
Generally the objective of Demand forecasting
Planning infrastructural Development
Capital procurement
Operational decisions ( UC, Maintenance, Load scheduling)
Spinning Reserve
Generally the objective of Energy forecasting
Number and Size different generation units (generation facilities)
Fuel requirement( input resource)
Capital procurement
Contd
In summary: a good forecast tempered with is the key to all
planning, indeed to financial success.
Load: means either demand or energy
Demand: time rate of energypower
Forecast: refers to projected load requirements determined using a
systematic process of defining future loads in sufficient quantitative
detail to permit important system expansion decisions to be made
Accuracy of a forecast is crucial to any electric utility, since it dictates
the timing and characteristics of major system additions
Classification and Characteristics of Loads
In some cases a total forecast is obtained by combining forecasts for
various classes of customers.
Loads broadly classified as:
Residential
Commercial
Industrial
Others (municipalities or division of state and federal governments
using energy for street and highway lighting).
Classifications
Most useful classification of customers for forecasting purposes
would be made by type of use, level of use, rate schedule, or
geographic area.
Classification by rate schedule is a viable way, because it tends to
lump similar types of customers into the same rate category and
because the energy data for each category are readily available
Of the three broad classes of loads, residential loads have the most
constant annual growth rate and the most seasonal fluctuation
The seasonal variations of the residential component in many cases
are responsible for seasonal variations in system peak.
Contd
This characteristic is due to widespread use of weather-sensitive
devices such as space heaters and air conditioners.
In the case of Ethiopia the weather does not significantly vary
throughout the year. Therefore demand seasonality is minimal. Here
the residential loads are characterized by lighting and since the system
peak is during the evening, their contribution to the system peak is
significant.
Contd
Commercial loads are also characterized by seasonal fluctuations,
and again the fluctuations are primarily due to the extensive use air
conditioning and space heating.
Industrial loads are considered base loads that contain little weather-
dependent variation
It is well documented that, In most part of the world, most system
peak demands occur as a direct result of seasonal weather extremes.
This reflects the need to include weather effects in forecasting future
requirements will be imperative
Contd
In addition to the tremendous impact of weather on residential and
commercial loads, other seasonal variations are caused by economic
and demographic effects.
Load requirements of industrial customers varies depending on
production level
Demographic effects causes variation in load patters and varies
with general migration patterns and other factors
Load Curves and Load Duration Curves
a load curve or load profile is a chart illustrating the
variation in demand/electrical load over a specific time.
Chronological variation in demands
Daily load Curves: If this curve is plotted over a time period of 24
hours
Weekly Load Curves: if plotted over a week
Monthly Load Curve: if plotted for a month (obtained from the
daily load curve)
Yearly Load Curves: if plotted for a year (obtained from the
monthly load curve)
Based on load curve, we can forecast future load for
a particular hour, day and a particular year
Load curve
Daily Industrial Load Curve
fig
Contd
Load Curve gives:
Variation of load during different time
Total number of units generated
Maximum demand
Average load on a power station
Load factor
Contd
The highest point on the load curve represents the maximum
demand (peak demand) on the station on that day.
The area under the load curve gives the Total energy
supplied on that day.
if this area is divided with the number of hours gives the
average load (power) on the station.
Load curves can be daily, weekly, monthly and yearly
depending on the period of observation. For daily load curve,
the period of time is taken as 24 hours and for annual load
curve the time is considered as 8760 hours
Load duration curve
Load duration curve is also a graph between load and time in which
the ordinates representing the load are plotted in the order of
descending magnitude, that is, with the greatest load at the left, lesser
loads towards the right and the lowest load at the extreme right.
The load duration curve is derived from the load curve and therefore,
represents the same data as that of the load curve.
The load duration curve is constructed by selecting the maximum
peak points and connecting them by a curve.
Load duration curve determines the percent (%) of system peak load.
Contd
Average load or average Demand:
It is the ratio of energy consumed in a given period of the time in
hours.
Average Load = Total Energy/Total Hours
Load Factor:
Load factor of a system is the ratio of the average load over a given
period of time to the maximum demand (peak load) occurring in that
period.
Load Factor = Average Load/Peak Load
Contd
It would be ideal to have a flat load curve. In practice, load curved
are far from flat. For a flat load curve, the load factor will be
higher.
Higher load factor means more uniform load pattern with less
variations in load. This is desirable from the point view of
maximum utilization of associated equipment which is selected on
the basis of maximum demand.
Ethiopias power system has a load factor of around 0.57 (in 2006).
The industrialized countries have a load factor higher than this.
This means, the power system operates at an average 57% of the
peak system load in the year 2006
System load duration curve for the year 2006 of the Ethiopian power system
Contd
100
95
90 Peak Load
Plants
85
80
75
70
65 Intermediate Load
Percent of Peak Load
60 Plants
55
50
45
40
35
30
Baseload
25 Plants
20
15 Capacity (MW) *
10
5
0
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500 7,000 7,500 8,000 8,500
Cumulative Hours
Contd
Example:
A system with a single power plant has the following daily load
variation
Question:
Draw the daily load curve
Determine the maximum demand
Determine the average load
Determine the load factor
Draw the load duration curve
Contd
Contd
Factors affecting Load Forecasting
Time factors such as
Hours of the day (day or night)
Day of the week (week day or weekend)
Time of the year (season)
Weather conditions (temperature and humidity)
Class of customers (residential, commercial, industrial, agricultural,
public, etc.)
Special events (TV programmes, public holidays, etc.)
Population
Economic indicators (per capita income, Gross National Product
(GNP), Gross Domestic Product (GDP), etc.)
Trends in using new technologies
Electricity price
Forecasting Methodology
Forecasting is simply a systematic procedure for quantitatively
defining future loads
Choosing a forecasting technique to use in establishing future load
requirements is a non-trivial task itself
Depending on the nature of load variations, one particular method
may be superior to another.
Before choosing a particular method, a basic understanding of how
a load behaves is essential.
Forecasting methods can vary from utility to utility.
Once a method has been chosen, the forecaster has to re - evaluate it
since forecasting techniques can outlive their usefulness as a result of
either drastic changes in a system or improvements in available
methods.
Contd
Depending on the time period, forecasting is classified as :
Short-term
Intermediate
Long-term
Since planning is our main concern and planning for addition of new
generation, transmission, and distribution facilities must begin 4-10 yr in
advance of the actual in-service date, we shall be concerned with the
methodology of intermediate-range forecasting.
For simplicity, the word :forecast will usually imply an intermediate-range
forecast
For Short-term load forecasting several factors should be considered, such as
[i] Time factors,
[ii] Weather data, and
[iii] Possible customers classes
Contd
The medium- and long-term forecasts take into account
[i] The historical load
[ii]Weather data,
[iii]The number of customers in different categories,
[iv]The appliances in the area and their characteristics including age,
[v] The economic and demographic data and their forecasts,
[vi]The appliance sales data and other factors.
Questions
