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    Initial Sprint Velocity Problem

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    Dejan Radic
    When starting a new project potentially with a new team or new technology using Scrum, the often asked question is: “How to determine the number of story points or velocity for the first sprint?”

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    Initial Sprint Velocity Problem

    Uploaded by

    Dejan Radic
    98 views8 pages
    When starting a new project potentially with a new team or new technology using Scrum, the often asked question is: “How to determine the number of story points or velocity for the first sprint?”

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    © © All Rights Reserved

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    When starting a new project potentially with a new team or new technology using Scrum, the often asked question is: “How to determine the number of story points or velocity for the first sprint?”

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pptx, pdf, or txt
    98 views8 pages

    Initial Sprint Velocity Problem

    Uploaded by

    Dejan Radic
    When starting a new project potentially with a new team or new technology using Scrum, the often asked question is: “How to determine the number of story points or velocity for the first sprint?”

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pptx, pdf, or txt
    of 8

    1

    INITIAL SPRINT
    VELOCITY PROBLEM

    Dejan Radic
    2

    Introduction
    Story points in Scrum
    Velocity mean value of story points per sprint
    Relative measure
    How to determine the number of story points or velocity
    for the first sprint?
    3

    Using past data


    Using velocity measurements from previous sprints
    Possible if team is well established
    What about new teams? Which work possibly on:
    new project (with different complexity)
    using new technology (learning curve)
    using Scrum for the first time
    Using data from other teams doesnt make sense
    Misleading claims like: 50 story points per team member
    per sprint
    4

    Convince management to wait


    Estimates wont be known upfront
    Realistic data would give better results in the long run
    It takes more than one sprint to get adequate velocity
    Management doesnt like it
    5

    Guesstimate
    Give management a guessed number
    Planning is a team activity!, they say
    Give too high number => burn out
    Give too low number => management not satisfied (but
    causes overall team sense of accomplishment)
    Add more people to increase velocity! (not in collision
    with Brooks Law)
    6

    Risk mitigation
    Following steps lead to better guesstimates*:
    Estimate product backlog using story points
    Choose a 2 points reference story (more for better approx.)
    Break it down into tasks
    Time-estimate tasks using Planning poker (hours instead of points)
    Calculate hours per point approximation
    Calculate team capacity (in hours) per sprint
    Extrapolate team velocity (in points) per sprint
    Tell management a range, for example:
    Team capacity is between 100 and 130 hours per sprint
    Hours per point is 5
    Velocity approximate is between 20 and 26 points
    * Not general recommendation, only when absolutely necessary
    7

    Additional problem
    Deliver Potentially Shippable Product or Minimum
    Viable Product at the end of the sprint
    Product Owners priorities sometimes dont match
    architectural needs
    That can lead to drastic architectural changes between
    sprints
    Result is a delay (more story points for architecture
    changer items)
    8

    Further reading & references


    Quora question: How do you estimate in Scrum when
    velocity is unknown?
    James Grenning paper: Planning Poker or How to avoid
    analysis paralysis while release planning
    Mitch Laceys book: The Scrum Field Guide
    Nick Lees Medium article: Solving the Problem of How
    Many Story Points to Commit to in your First Sprint
    Ritesh Tamrakar, Magne Jrgensen paper: Does the Use
    of Fibonacci Numbers in Planning Poker Affect Effort
    Estimates?

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