Probability

Prof.Mervat Hassanein
Definition
Probability is a measure of how likely
something will occur
It is a ratio of desired outcomes to the total
outcomes

(# desired)/ (# Total)
Probabilities of all outcomes equal 1
Example
If we role a number cube, there are six total
possibilities. (1,2,3,4,5,6)
Each possibility only has one outcome, so each
has a PROBABILITY of 1/6
For instance the probability I roll a 2 is 1/6 since
there is only a single 2 on the number cube
If I flip a coin what is the probability I
get heads?

What is the probability I get a tail

Remember, to think of how many

possibilities there are.
P (heads) =

P (tails) =

If you add these two up, you will get 1, which

means the answers are probably right
 Two or more events

If there are two or more events, you need to

consider if it is happening at the same time
or one after the other
 And
If the two events are happening at the same
time, You need to multiply the two
probabilities together.

Usually, the questions use the word and

when describing the outcomes.
 OR

If the two events are happening one after the

other, you need to add the two probabilities.
Usually the questions use the word or
when describing the outcomes
 Practice

If I roll a number cube and flip a coin

What is the probability I will get a heads and

a 6?

What is the probability I will get a tails or a

3?
 Answer

P(head and 6)= x 1/6= 1/12

P (tail or a 5) = + 1/6 = 8/12 = 2/3

 Experimental probability
An experimental probability is one that happens as a result of an
experiment

Experimental Probability: is the ratio of the number of times an

event occurs to the total number of trials or times

(# of outcomes) / (# of trials)
The probabilities we have done so far are theoretical probabilities
Step 1: Experimental probability = number of times the event occurs /
total number of trials.
Step 2: Number of times heads appeared = 27.
Step 3: Total number of experiments = 60.
Step 4: So, experimental probability of getting a head = 27/60 =9/20
 Experiment

Flip a coin 50 times, write down what happens

for each flip

In the end, find the experimental probabilities,

by writing the how many times heads and tails
occur over the total number of trials (flips)
Getting a 7 on Two Dice
There are 6 different ways of Prop Die B die A
getting two dice to sum to 7:
1/36 6 1
In each case, the probability of
getting the required number on 1/36 5 2
a single die is 1/6. 1/36 4 3
To get both numbers (so they 1/36 3 4
add to 7), the probability uses 1/36 2 5
the AND rule: 1/6 x 1/6 = 1/36.
1/36 1 6
To sum up the 6 possibilities,
use the OR rule: only 1 of the 6 6/36 Total
events can occur, but you dont
care which one.
6/36 = 1/6
 Probability and Genetics
The probability that any individual child
has a certain genotype is calculated using
Punnett squares.
We are interested in calculating the
probability of a given distribution of
phenotypes in a family of children.
This is calculated using the rules of
probability.
 Sex Ratio in a Family of 3
Child Child Child
Assume that the probability of #3 #2 #1
a boy = 1/2 and the probability B B B
of a girl = 1/2. G B B
Enumerate each child
B G B
separately for each of the 8
possible families. G G B
Each family has a probability B B G
of 1/8 of occurring G B G
( 1/2 x 1/2 x
B G G
1/2).
Chance of 2 boys + 1 girl. G G G
There are 3 families in which
this occurs: BBG, BGB, and GBB.
Thus, the chance is 1/8 + 1/8 + 1/8 = 3/8.
 Different Probabilities for Different
Phenotypes
Once again, a family of 3
Total Child Child Child
children, but this time the #3 #2 #1
parents are
27/64 T (3/4) T (3/4) T (3/4)
heterozygous for Tay-Sachs, a
recessive genetic disease. Each 9/64 t (1/4) T(3/4) T (3/4)
child thus has a 9/64 T (3/4) t (1/4) T (3/4)
chance of being normal 3/64 t (1/4) t (1/4) T (3/4)
(TT or Tt) and a 1/4
9/64 T (3/4) T (3/4) t (1/4)
chance of having the disease (tt).
Now, the chances for different 3/64 T (3/4) t (1/4) t (1/4)
kinds of families is different. 3/64 t (1/4) T (3/4) t (1/4)
chance of all 3 normal = 27/64.
1/64 t (1/4) t (1/4) t (1/4)
Chance of all 3 with disease = 1/64.
 Different Probabilities for Different
Phenotypes, p. 2
Chance of 2 normal + 1 with disease: there are 3
families of this type, each with probability 9/64.
So, 9/64 + 9/64 + 9/64 = 27/64.
Chance of at least one normal child. This
means 1 normal or 2 normal or 3 normal. Need
to figure each part separately, then add them.
--1 normal + 2 diseased = 3/64 + 3/64 + 3/64
= 9/64.
--2 normal + 1 diseased = 27/64 (see above)
-- 3 normal = 27/64
--Sum = 9/64 + 27/64 + 27/64 = 63/64.
This could also be done with the NOT rule: at least
1 normal is the same as NOT all 3 diseased. The
chance of all 3 diseased is 1/64, so the chance at
least 1 normal is 1 - 1/64 = 63/64.
 Larger Families: Binomial Distribution

The basic method of examining all possible

families and counting the ones of the proper type

gets unwieldy with big families.

The binomial distribution is a shortcut method

based on the expansion of the equation to the

right, where p = probability of one event (say, a

normal child), and q = probability of the

alternative event 9mutant child). n is the

( p q) 1
n

number of children in the family.

Since 1 raised to any power (multiplied by itself)

is always equal to 1, this equation describes the

probability of any size family.

 Binomial for a Family of 2
The expansion of the binomial for n = 2 is
shown. The 3 terms represent the 3
different kinds of families: p2 is families
with 2 normal children, 2pq is the families
with 1 normal and 1 mutant child, and q2 is
the families with 2 mutant children.
The coefficients in front of these terms: 1, 2,
and 1, are the number of different families of
the given type. Thus there are 2 different
families with 1 normal plus 1 mutant child:
normal born first and mutant born second, or
mutant born first and normal born second
 As before, p = 3/4 and q = 1/4.
Chance of 2 normal children = p2 = (3/4)2
= 9/16.
Chance of 1 normal plus 1 mutant = 2pq =
2 * 3/4 * 1/4 = 6/16 = 3/8.

p 2 pq q
2 2
 Binomial for a Family of 3

Here, p3 is a family of 3 normal children,

3p2q is 2 normal plus 1 affected, 3pq2 is 1
normal plus 2 affected, and q3 is 3 affected.

The exponents on the p and q represent

the number of children of each type.
 The coefficients are the number of families
of that type.
Chance of 2 normal + 1 affected is
described by the term 3p2q. Thus, 3 *
(3/4)2 * 1/4 = 27/64. Same as we got by
enumerating the families in a list.

p 3 p q 3 pq q 1
3 2 2 3
Larger Families
Pascals Triangle
Is a way of finding the coefficients for the binomial

in a simple way.

Start by writing the coefficients for n = 1: 1 1.

Below this, the coefficients for n = 2 are found by

putting 1s on the outside and adding up adjacent

coefficients from the line above: 1, 1 + 1 = 2, 1.

Next line goes the same way: write 1s on the

outsides, then add up adjacent coefficients from

the line above: 1, 1+2 = 3, 2+1 = 3, 1.

For n = 5, coefficients are 1, 5, 10, 10, 5, 1.

 Now apply the coefficients to the terms. For n = 5, the
terms with appropriate exponents are p5, p4q, p3q2,
p2q3, pq4, and q5.
The coefficients are 1, 5, 10, 10, 5, 1. So the final
equation is p5 + 5p4q + 10p3q2 + 10p2q3 + 5pq4 + q5 = 1.
Using this: what is the chance of 3 normal plus 2
affected children? The relevant term is 10p3q2. The
exponents on p and q determine how many of each
kind of child is involved.
 The coefficient, 10, says that there are 10
families of this type on the list of all
possible families.
So, the chance of the desired family is
10p3q2 = 10 * (3/4)3 * (1/4)2 = 10 * 27/64 *
1/16 = 270/1024
 What is the chance of 1 normal plus 4 affected?
The relevant term is 5pq4. So, the chance is 5 *
(3/4) * (1/4)4 = 5 * 3/4 * 1/256 = 15/1024.
What is the chance of 1 normal or 2 normal?
Sum of the probabilities for 5pq4 (1 normal) and
10p2q3 (2 normal) = 15/1024 + 90/1024 =
105/1024.
 What is the chance of at least 4 normal?
This means 4 normal or 5 normal. Add
them up.
What is the chance of at least 1 normal?
Easiest to do with the NOT rule: 1 - chance
of all affected.
 What is the chance that child number 3 is
normal? Trick question. For any individual
child, the probability is always the simple
probability from the Punnett square: 3/4 in this
case.
Two unbiased coins are tossed. What is probability
of getting at most one tail ?

Total 4 cases = [HH, TT, TH, HT]

Favourable cases = [HH, TH, HT]

Please note we need at most one tail, not at least

one tail.
So probability = 3/4
Three unbiased coins are tossed, what is the
probability of getting at least 2 tails ?
Total cases are = 2*2*2 = 8, which are as
follows
[TTT, HHH, TTH, THT, HTT, THH, HTH,
HHT]

Favoured cases are = [TTH, THT, HTT,

TTT] = 4

So required probability = 4/8 = 1/2

In a box, there are 8 red, 7 blue and 6 green
balls. One ball is picked up randomly. What
is the probability that it is neither blue nor
green?
Answer is 8/21