Problem-solving and
decision-making
July, 2011
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Importance of good problem-solving and decision-making
Get to answers faster
Use time and resources more efficiently
Have greater impact on the business
Free up time to do other things
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Objectives and approach for session
Objectives Approach
Introduce an Learn key
approach/tools you elements of
can add to your approach through
toolkit of skills and plenary lecture
use for many types and discussion
of problem solving
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McKinseys problem solving approach
IMPACT
Logical
problem solving
Impact- Focused Fact-
driven based
C R E AT I V E T H I N K I N G
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The problem-solving cycle
Focus for today
?
Problem
Problem
definition
Problem
structuring
Prioritisation
Issue
analysis
and work
plan
Recom-
Think next iteration: mend- Synthesis Analysis
what are the teams ations
next priorities?
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Step 1: Define the problem
Think IMPACT:
What is the question you
are trying to answer?
?
Problem
definition
Struc-
Problem turing
Priori-
tising
Issue
analysis
Analysis
C O M M U N I CAT I O N
Synthesis Recom-
menda-
tions
!
Impact
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What is a good problem definition?
A problem definition is a way to frame a problem so that
we are clear up front on what we are trying to solve, and
what success will look like
What are characteristics of a good problem
definition?
What are must-have elements to
Ensure we get to the best answer?
Ensure our answer is practical and
implementable?
What are the common pitfalls?
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Problem statements help sharpen your thinking about the problem
What are we trying to achieve?
Focuses the work and ensures that findings can be acted on. The more specific the statement the
better, provided that it is not so narrow that the wrong problem is addressed.
1 3
Background and context Stakeholders
Comments on the situation and complication Identifies primary decision makers (e.g., CEO,
facing the key decision-maker (e.g., industry Division Manager) as well as internal and
trends, relative position in the industry). external parties who can affect implementation
(e.g., shareholders)
2 4
What is success? Potential challenges
Refers to the basis on which the key decision- Indicates what will not be included in the project
maker will decide whether to act on the (e.g., international markets, R&D activities). Also
recommendations (e.g.,financial returns, effect on defines the limits to the set of solutions that can
staff, market share growth). be considered, including degree of accuracy of
analysis (i.e, 80/20 rule vs. 90/10).
5
Where will we find information and help?
Describes implementation challenges (e.g., labour relations, communication practices, risk aversion)
that must be addressed to change beliefs and behaviors
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One idea of what a good problem definition looks like
What are we trying to achieve?
The basic question we are trying to solve. It should be SMART: specific, measurable,
action-oriented, relevant and time-bound.
1 3
Background and context Stakeholders
What is the current situation? Who are the decision makers?
What has happened so far? Who needs to be involved?
Why is this problem is being addressed
now?
2 4
What is success? Potential challenges
What does a good final product look like? What are the potential issues or problems
What are we trying to deliver? that we can forsee and plan to mitigate?
5
Where will we find information and help?
Where does expertise and knowledge, exist (Internal and external)? e.g., work that has
already been done, internal experts who we should draw on, published reports and papers
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Problem statement
Characteristics of good problem statement
Specific
Measurable
Action-oriented
Relevant (to the key problem)
Time-bound
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Example problem statement: Oilco refinery
The Oilco refinery is suffering from Statement of fact
poor profitability despite a strong
market niche position
Should the Oilco refinery improve Not disputable
its deteriorating position?
Can the Oilco refinery be Too general
managed differently to increase
profitability?
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Good problem solving: Oilco refinery
What opportunities exist for Oilco to improve
profitability by $40 million per year through Specific
overhead rationalisation, operational Measurable
Specific,
improvements, or restructuring non-core Action-oriented
action-oriented
assets? Relevant (to the key
problem)
Time-bound
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Step 2: Structure the problem
Think DISAGGREGATION and
HYPOTHESIS:
What could the key elements of
the problem be?
?
Problem
Problem
definition
Struc-
turing
Priori-
tising
Issue
analysis
Analysis
C O M M U N I C AT I O N
Synthesis Recom-
menda-
tions
!
Impact
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Problem solving requires we answer a number of difficult questions
What issues
should we What steps
think about? will we need
to take?
How will we
build our
smart cities? ?
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What is an issue tree and why is it important?
A problem solving tool that breaks a problem into discrete chunks
Why use logic trees? Sub-issue
Issue 1
To break a problem into Sub-issue
component parts Sub-issue
Issue 2
To ensure integrity of the Sub-issue
problem solving is maintained Problem Sub-issue
Issue 3
Sub-issue
To build a common under-
standing within the team of Issue 4
the problem solving
framework Sub-issue
Issue 5
Sub-issue
To help focus team efforts
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The issue tree is a valuable tool to disaggregate a problem into core sub-
questions that need to be addressed to answer the main question
Description Why use it? When to use it?
Text
Decomposes an Helps Early in the
issue into smaller disaggregate problem solving
sub-issues (e.g., problem into process, when
measures, criteria) individual pieces you know little
Issue
tree about the
Sub-issues answer Helps divide the
problem
the question work among
What? or How? team members
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Basic principle of the issue tree
How / What?
How / What?
Idea 1.1
Idea 1
Idea 1.2
Goal:
Break a problem
into component
Idea 2.1
parts and show
Question Idea 2 concrete solutions
Idea 2.2
Idea 3.1
Idea 3
Idea 3.2
Formulation of
the basic
question to be
resolved should Complete but non- Further levels of detail for ideas,
be as specific as overlapping list of also complete and non-
possible conceivable solutions overlapping
Level of detail
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Good issue trees meet MECE and 80/20 rule requirements
Mutually Exclusive Collectively Exhaustive 80/20 rule
ME
Idea 1
Benefit for impact
Mutually
Exclusive 100%
Content of
Statements 80%
Question Idea 2 does not
overlap
NT
IE
F IC
EF
T
Idea 3 NO
Time and
CE Together, statements effort to
20% 100%
answer the question or structure
Collectively fully describe the idea problem
Efficient Trying to be perfect
Exhaustive on the level immediately
above
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Lets try out an example
Create an issue tree to address the
following:
How can you reduce monthly shopping
expenses?
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Example Issue tree solution
Food
Clothing
Buy fewer items
Entertainment
How could you
reduce your Travel
expenditure
each month?
Buy lower-quality items
Pay less for
same quantity of Buy items at discount/on sale
items
Share costs of items (e.g., split
rent with roommate, car pool)
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Good logic trees help prioritise issues and allocate responsibilities to team
members
Think SPEED:
Which part of the tree seems most
important to the problem?
?
Problem
Problem
definition
Struc-
turing
Priori-
tising
Issue
analysis
Analysis
C O M M U N I C AT I O N
Synthesis Recom-
menda-
tions
!
Impact
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Purpose of prioritisation
Bundle of possible actions developed
Prioritisation
required
But:
Limited resources
Time constraints
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How to prioritise
Use judgement/intuition Involve your team
Be practical!
Polishing
Focusing
on impact
Time and Benefit for
effort problem
solving
Do back-of-the-
envelope calculations Take risks
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Methods for prioritising
Key ideas Example methods
Take a reasonably quick, informal Percentage of total X
approach to get started Estimated potential
Remember that sometimes a back increase/decrease (sensitivity
of an envelope calculation is all analysis)
thats needed Simple ratios
If new information emerges, you can Quick industry benchmarks
always reprioritise and switch your
efforts to another part of the tree
Qualitative input from interviews
Ease of implementation
Use likely impact to decide where to
go first Timing
Use readily available data whenever Quick wins
possible; avoid major data requests Available resources
Do not create massive spreadsheets High/low risk
or other computer models if you can
move forward with less complete
information
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Step 4: Issue analysis and work plan
Think EFFICIENCY:
How and on what should
the team spend its time?
?
Problem
Problem
definition
Struc-
turing
Priori-
tising
Issue
analysis
Analysis
C O M M U N I CAT I O N
Synthesis Recom-
menda-
tions
!
Impact
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Step 5: Analysis
Think EVIDENCE:
What am I trying to
prove/disprove?
?
Problem
Problem
definition
Struc-
turing
Priori-
tising
Issue
analysis
Analysis Synthesis Recom-
C O M M U N I CAT I O N
menda-
tions
!
Impact
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Step 6: Synthesise findings
Think SO WHAT:
What are the implications
of our findings?
? !
Problem Struc- Priori- Issue Analysis Synthesis Recom-
definition turing tising analysis menda-
tions
C O M M U N I CAT I O N
Problem Impact
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Summary versus synthesis: whats the difference?
SUMMARY SYNTHESIS
? ?
FACTS
I have misplaced my keys
My passport isn't where
I thought it was
I'm 2 months behind
on my tax return
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Summary versus synthesis: extracting a higher level of meaning
SUMMARY SYNTHESIS
Ive lost my keys Ive been sloppy
and passport and
I'm behind on my
tax return
FACTS
I have misplaced my keys
My passport isn't where
I thought it was
I'm 2 months behind
on my tax return
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Synthesis helps develop a powerful and effective main message
What is the one thing I Main message must be:
want my audience to
think or do as a result of Targeted
this communication? Overarching
Powerful
Supportable
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Step 7: Develop recommendations
Think POTENTIAL
SOLUTION:
What should be
done?
? !
Problem Struc- Priori- Issue Analysis Synthesis Recom-
definition turing tising analysis menda-
tions
C O M M U N I CAT I O N
Problem Impact
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Last chance for any questions
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Thank you Enjoy the rest of your day
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