Managing Bond Portfolios: Investments

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The document discusses various relationships between bond prices, yields and maturity as well as concepts like duration and strategies for managing bond portfolios like indexing and immunization.

Bond prices and yields are inversely related. Longer-term bonds are more price sensitive than shorter-term bonds. An increase in yield results in a smaller price change than an equal decrease in yield.

Duration measures a bond's price sensitivity to interest rate changes. It is used to determine how much a bond portfolio's value will change given an interest rate move. Bonds with the same duration have similar interest rate risk.

CHAPTER 16

Managing Bond Portfolios

INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE,


McGraw-Hill/Irwin

MARCUS
Copyright
2011 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

16-2

Bond Pricing Relationships


1. Bond prices and yields are inversely
related.
2. An increase in a bonds yield to maturity
results in a smaller price change than a
decrease of equal magnitude.
3. Long-term bonds tend to be more price
sensitive than short-term bonds.

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16-3

Bond Pricing Relationships


4. As maturity increases, price sensitivity
increases at a decreasing rate.
5. Interest rate risk is inversely related to
the bonds coupon rate.
6. Price sensitivity is inversely related to
the yield to maturity at which the bond
is selling.

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Figure 16.1 Change in Bond Price as


a Function of Change in Yield to
Maturity

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16-4

Table 16.1 Prices of 8% Coupon Bond


(Coupons Paid Semiannually)

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16-5

Table 16.2 Prices of Zero-Coupon


Bond (Semiannually Compounding)

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Duration
A measure of the effective maturity of
a bond
The weighted average of the times
until each payment is received, with
the weights proportional to the present
value of the payment
Duration is shorter than maturity for all
bonds except zero coupon bonds.
Duration is equal to maturity for zero
coupon bonds.
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16-8

Duration: Calculation

wt CF t (1 y ) Price
T

D t wt
t 1

CFt=cash flow at time t


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16-9

Duration/Price Relationship
Price change is proportional to duration
and not to maturity
(1 y )
P
Dx

P
1 y

D* = modified duration

P
D * y
P
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16-10

Example 16.1 Duration


Two bonds have duration of 1.8852 years.
One is a 2-year, 8% coupon bond with
YTM=10%. The other bond is a zero
coupon bond with maturity of 1.8852 years.
Duration of both bonds is 1.8852 x 2 =
3.7704 semiannual periods.
Modified D = 3.7704/1+0.05 = 3.591
periods
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16-11

Example 16.1 Duration


Suppose the semiannual interest rate
increases by 0.01%. Bond prices fall by:

D y
*

=-3.591 x 0.01% = -0.03591%


Bonds with equal D have the same
interest rate sensitivity.
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16-12

Example 16.1 Duration


Coupon Bond

Zero

The coupon bond,


which initially sells at
$964.540, falls to
$964.1942 when its
yield increases to
5.01%
percentage decline of
0.0359%.

The zero-coupon
bond initially sells for
$1,000/1.05 3.7704 =
$831.9704.
At the higher yield, it
sells for
$1,000/1.053.7704 =
$831.6717. This price
also falls by 0.0359%.
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16-13

Rules for Duration


Rule 1 The duration of a zero-coupon bond
equals its time to maturity
Rule 2 Holding maturity constant, a bonds
duration is higher when the coupon rate
is lower
Rule 3 Holding the coupon rate constant,
a bonds duration generally increases
with its time to maturity
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16-14

Rules for Duration


Rule 4 Holding other factors constant,
the duration of a coupon bond is higher
when the bonds yield to maturity is
lower
Rules 5 The duration of a level perpetuity
is equal to: (1+y) / y

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Figure 16.2 Bond Duration versus


Bond Maturity

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16-15

Table 16.3 Bond Durations (Yield to


Maturity = 8% APR; Semiannual
Coupons)

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16-16

16-17

Convexity
The relationship between bond prices
and yields is not linear.
Duration rule is a good approximation
for only small changes in bond yields.
Bonds with greater convexity have
more curvature in the price-yield
relationship.
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Figure 16.3 Bond Price Convexity: 30Year Maturity, 8% Coupon; Initial YTM
= 8%

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16-18

16-19

Convexity
1
Convexity
2
P (1 y )

CFt
2

(1 y ) t (t t )
t 1

Correction for Convexity:

P
2
1
D y [Convexity (y ) ]
2
P

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Figure 16.4 Convexity of Two


Bonds

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16-20

Why do Investors Like


Convexity?
Bonds with greater curvature gain more in
price when yields fall than they lose when
yields rise.
The more volatile interest rates, the more
attractive this asymmetry.
Bonds with greater convexity tend to have
higher prices and/or lower yields, all else
equal.
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16-22

Callable Bonds
As rates fall, there is a ceiling on the
bonds market price, which cannot rise
above the call price.
Negative convexity
Use effective duration:
P / P
Effective Duration =
r

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Figure 16.5 Price Yield Curve for a


Callable Bond

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16-24

Mortgage-Backed Securities
The number of outstanding callable
corporate bonds has declined, but the
MBS market has grown rapidly.
MBS are based on a portfolio of
callable amortizing loans.
Homeowners have the right to repay
their loans at any time.
MBS have negative convexity.
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16-25

Mortgage-Backed Securities
Often sell for more than their principal
balance.
Homeowners do not refinance as soon as
rates drop, so implicit call price is not a
firm ceiling on MBS value.
Tranches the underlying mortgage pool
is divided into a set of derivative securities

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Figure 16.6 Price-Yield Curve for a


Mortgage-Backed Security

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16-26

Figure 16.7 Cash Flows to Whole


Mortgage
Pool; Cash Flows to Three Tranches

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16-28

Passive Management
Two passive bond portfolio strategies:
1.Indexing
2.Immunization
Both strategies see market prices as
being correct, but the strategies have
very different risks.
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16-29

Bond Index Funds


Bond indexes contain thousands of
issues, many of which are infrequently
traded.
Bond indexes turn over more than stock
indexes as the bonds mature.
Therefore, bond index funds hold only a
representative sample of the bonds in the
actual index.
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Figure 16.8 Stratification of


Bonds into Cells

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Immunization
Immunization is a way to control interest
rate risk.
Widely used by pension funds, insurance
companies, and banks.

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16-32

Immunization
Immunize a portfolio by matching the
interest rate exposure of assets and
liabilities.
This means: Match the duration of the assets
and liabilities.
Price risk and reinvestment rate risk exactly
cancel out.

Result: Value of assets will track the value


of liabilities whether rates rise or fall.
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Table 16.4 Terminal value of a Bond


Portfolio After 5 Years

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16-33

Table 16.5 Market Value Balance


Sheet

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16-34

Figure 16.9 Growth of Invested


Funds

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16-36

Figure 16.10 Immunization

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16-37

Cash Flow Matching and


Dedication

Cash flow matching = automatic


immunization.
Cash flow matching is a dedication
strategy.
Not widely used because of
constraints associated with bond
choices.

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Active Management:
Swapping Strategies

Substitution swap
Intermarket swap
Rate anticipation swap
Pure yield pickup
Tax swap

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16-39

Horizon Analysis
Select a particular holding period and
predict the yield curve at end of period.
Given a bonds time to maturity at the
end of the holding period,
its yield can be read from the
predicted yield curve and the end-ofperiod price can be calculated.

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