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Spreadsheet Conventions

The document provides guidelines for spreadsheet conventions in financial models. It recommends that models have clear organization so inputs are easy to find, calculations are transparent, and the model is flexible for sensitivity analysis. Colors should be used meaningfully to identify inputs, outputs, and links between sheets. Comments and formatting can help ensure the model is understandable and auditable. Overall, the document stresses the importance of structure and documentation for financial models to be useful, accurate, and shareable.

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Chintan Manek
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Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
0% found this document useful (0 votes)
855 views107 pages

Spreadsheet Conventions

The document provides guidelines for spreadsheet conventions in financial models. It recommends that models have clear organization so inputs are easy to find, calculations are transparent, and the model is flexible for sensitivity analysis. Colors should be used meaningfully to identify inputs, outputs, and links between sheets. Comments and formatting can help ensure the model is understandable and auditable. Overall, the document stresses the importance of structure and documentation for financial models to be useful, accurate, and shareable.

Uploaded by

Chintan Manek
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 107

Spreadsheet Conventions for Financial Models

Caution: You do not always have to conform to these conventions


Foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of a petty mind

Corporate Modelling

1 Oct 1, 2015

Model Layout and Structure


If somebody else picks up your model, can they easily verify that
the model is correct.
If other people cannot work through your model and
understand it in a couple of hours, there is a problem
When you pick up your model after not using it for a couple of
months, can you replicate and explain it.
If you start sweating when you think about opening the
model, there is a problem.

Corporate Modeling

Oct 1, 2015

Layout and Review

If you are reviewing a model, you would like:


To see what the inputs to the model are (you do not want to search
around spreadsheets to find the model results).
To be able to quickly understand calculations in the model.
To be comfortable that the model does not have errors.
To add calculations of added revenue and expense, deferred
debits and other components to the model (add rows to template
models).
To supplement the model with additional time periods (add
columns to template models).
To be able to perform sensitivity analysis, scenario analysis and
Monte Carlo simulation
Re-use the model in future years.

Corporate Modeling

Oct 1, 2015

Objectives of a Well Designed Model

A well structured model:


Should be flexible (easy to change formulas, model delays, added expense
items, alternative forecast horizons, different assumptions)
Should be presentable and transparent in a way that is convincing to
readers of the model that it is accurate
Should allow risk analysis with sensitivity analysis, scenario analysis, breakeven analysis and Monte Carlo simulation
Should model alternative decisions (investment, lending, contracting,
selling)
Should effectively present results where the key drivers and the key outputs
are clearly demonstrated
Should be accurate as demonstrated by balancing accounts, extreme
scenarios and other tests
Should be stable where macros, range names or circularity do not create
errors in the model

Corporate Modeling

Oct 1, 2015

Programming, Accounting and Engineering

Using excel with if statements, combo boxes, range names, look-up tables, macros
and switch variables is a necessary, but easy to learn skill

Construction of a basic financial model requires knowledge of accounting principles


-- cash flow, depreciation, balance sheets and financial ratios

Working through value drivers requires knowledge of how the business process
what drives value, how the cost components are developed and how the production
process is modeled

Effective Modeling
Mechanics and Accounting 25%
Assumptions and Value Drivers 45%
Presentation 15%
Auditing 15%

Corporate Modeling

Oct 1, 2015

Spreadsheet Organisation and Conventions

Organization:

Model drivers and cash flows should be clearly laid out

Inputs should have a different colour (Colour and then Move)

Periods in different sheets should correspond to the same column

Simple Formulas

Use max and min instead of if statement

Financial statements should only have simple formulas

Financial Calculations

Positive number convention

Use switches and cork-screws

Excel Tools

Named ranges may be appropriate for variables which have a single value such as the
life of the plant

Try to avoid circular references

Describe column titles and macros in detail

Corporate Modeling

Oct 1, 2015

Model Organisation

Corporate Modelling

7 Oct 1, 2015

Model Organization
Clear progression of inputs and assumptions to outputs
Use of the Financial Model as a Database
Presentation of assumptions that drive value
Organization of sheets in financial statements with inputs,
workings, financial statements and outputs
Table of Contents and Settings
Necessary and unnecessary complexity

Corporate Modeling

Oct 1, 2015

Do Not Make Important Inputs Difficult to Find and


Adjust
The key drivers should be easy to change and should be easy to
find
All inputs should be in one or a few sheets and should be
coloured
Dont put the key inputs in sheets that are far from the
beginning
The inputs should be easy to change (use combo boxes or
spinner boxes so the inputs can be changed from more
than one sheet)

Corporate Modeling

Oct 1, 2015

Example of Spreadsheet Organisation and Database of


Financial Information

There is no set rule for organising spreadsheets. But the following list provides and example of
how a financial model is a database of financial information on the value of a company.

Historic Financials

Assumption Book

Revenue Working

Operating Cost Working

Other Working

Aggregation

Financial Statements

Financial Ratios

Valuation

Graphs

Input Back-up

Background Sheets

Corporate Modeling

Virtually all of the information that


drives the value of a company can
be found somewhere in the
model.

10

Oct 1, 2015

MODEL ORGANISATION: Meaning of Colours in


Inputs and Outputs

Colorus should mean something that makes the spreadsheet easier to


follow
Inputs in a color
Links to another sheet
Links from another sheet
Key outputs

Dont Simply Colour to Make the Spreadsheet Pretty!


Formulas should not bounce from sheet to sheet without
clear direction Collect items earlier sheets at the top of
subsequent sheets.

Corporate Modeling

11

Oct 1, 2015

Example of Moving Between Sheets


Macro named
spreadsheet colors all
sheets will perform this
function automatically

Colors
correspond
to sheet
names

Corporate Modeling

12

Oct 1, 2015

Colors Should Mean Something

There are yellow, red, blue and


black codes.

There is no documentation of
what the colors mean

Corporate Modeling

13

Oct 1, 2015

Example of Non-transparent Model No Idea where


projections come from

What is the value


What drives value (sales,
ROIC, etc.)
What are inputs and what are
formulas

Corporate Modeling

14

Oct 1, 2015

Sheet Organization and Table of Contents

PUT THINGS IN ORDER!

Too Many Sheets,


Not Organized

Investment banks like many sheets so that you can see


the components of each page
Many sheets can be easy to to print

Each sheet prints as page

Too many sheets can make the links difficult to


follow

No clear rule on the number of sheets


The sheets should be organized in a logical
order

Input sheets

Working Sheets

Financial Statements, etc

For consolidation in mergers, keep at least all


financials on the same page

Corporate Modeling

Use the Table of


Contents Macro
Provided on the CD

15

Oct 1, 2015

Model Organisation: Make Inputs Easy to Find and


Calculations Easy to Follow

Corporate Modelling

16Oct 1, 2015

Making Calculations Easy to Follow


Inputs should be on a single sheet
Drivers should be gathered together
Show outputs next to inputs to make sure the model is working
using combo boxes, spinner boxes and scenario titles
Repeat combo boxes in different sheets and key outputs in
different sheets whilst developing the model
Dont over-use fancy excel formulas and excel functions when
you could solve the same problem with a simple function
Present the formula components so that the trace precedent and
trace dependent can be used

Corporate Modeling

17

Oct 1, 2015

When Presenting Financial Ratios, Present the


Numerator and the Denominator

The numerator and the denominator are shown so that the reader can see precisely
how the calculation is made.

Corporate Modeling

18

Oct 1, 2015

Use Data Tables with Row Incidies to Describe when


Values Occur

Show the explicit value so one


does not have to guess what cell
the value goes into.
One does not know
when the long-term
and when the shortterm occurs
Corrected Case Use a table
with the year specified

Corporate Modeling

19

Oct 1, 2015

See the Results of Inputs and Outputs on the Same Page


Keep key results and inputs in sight using Boxes

Often, a spreadsheet will have settings for valuation methods, covenants,


interest rate methods and so forth. It is nice to see the how the results vary
when inputs change, even though the inputs should still be on one page. In the
example below, the sensitivity factors are shown along with the graph and the
IRRs, so that you can see what happens when you change the factor.

While working on a model,


keep key results in sight.

This can be done with


spinner boxes and combo
boxes

Corporate Modeling

When you use boxes to test


sensitivity analyses and to
develop risk analysis, make a
macro that re-sets the
assumption to base case
values

20

Oct 1, 2015

Model Formatting: Comments, Column Set-up

Corporate Modelling

21Oct 1, 2015

SPREADSHEET CONVENTION: Setting-Up Sheets


with Indentation Columns

Add Three or Four Narrow Columns at the beginning of the


sheet

Make a long column for the name of the row

Add a column for units

Add a column for formula definition

Make all time periods start in the same column in different


sheets

Corporate Modeling

22

Oct 1, 2015

Formatting

Use rules from accountants


Rule of lines
Coding of Accounts
Double Entry

Use grouping instead of hiding rows or columns. This can be done by


holding the SHIFT, ALT, keys.

Title accounts as either detailed, or total and use the auto filter selection
from the data option.

Corporate Modeling

23

Oct 1, 2015

Effective Use of Comments


While using comments is obvious, using comments that describe
what a spreadsheet does can be very effective. I suggest using
a comment in the A1 cell of each sheet as illustrated below.

A comment in A1
that describes what
the sheet does is a
pain, but it is worth
it later on and it
forces each sheet
to be organised.

Note how you can


format the
comment and make
it like a help screen

Corporate Modeling

24

Oct 1, 2015

Efficient Layout with Indents

Corporate Modeling

25

Oct 1, 2015

SPREADSHEET CONVENTION: Formulas Should


Be the Same Across Columns

If you repeat a column, it should not change the spreadsheet

You can use switches to keep the formulas the same for historic
and future periods

An exception is the construction period in project finance models

A well build model will use the same formulas


for historic and forecasted periods without any
modification

Corporate Modeling

26

Oct 1, 2015

SPREADSHEET CONVENTION: Formulas Should


Be the Same Across Columns

Example: If 2008 is column H in the input


sheet, 2008 should also be column H in other
sheets such as the financial statements.

Corporate Modeling

27

Oct 1, 2015

Formulas Not the Same Because of Blanks

If you insert a column or


change the life of an asset,
the blank columns will not
automatically adjust

Corporate Modeling

28

Oct 1, 2015

SPREADSHEET CONVENTION: Keep Row Spacing


Consistent for Aggregation
A painful part of modelling is aggregating debt issues. To make
this less painful and less subject to problems, keep the spacing
the same for different issues as shown below.

Issue 1 and Issue 2


have the same format
so that aggregation is
much easier

Corporate Modeling

29

Oct 1, 2015

Problems with Inserting Columns Vlookup and Macros

Say you have used a look-up table


with an index value, a table and
where the column selected is defined
in the vlookup function. If you insert
a column between the vertical index
of the look-up table and the column
defined in the look-up table, the
results of the look-up table will
change.

Notice that inserting a column


changed the result

A better way is to combine match and


index functions

When using match and index, first


show the result of the match
statement and show the result of the
index somewhere on the sheet. Then
use the index.

Corporate Modeling

Notice the
different
result of
the look-up
table

The match and


index command
is more flexible
(allows sorting
from low to high)

30

Oct 1, 2015

Example of Inconsistent Periods

Where there are inconsistent periods,


Financial ratios and returns are more
difficult.

Corporate Modeling

31

Oct 1, 2015

Corrected Approach with Replacement and Retirement

Instead of blanks, this


sheet has formulas with
zeros.
Automatically retires and replaces
assets

Corporate Modeling

32

Oct 1, 2015

SPREADSHEET CONVENTION: Labels should be


Consistent, Concise and Have Similar Names
Choose names that are as concise as possible. Names greater
than 10-15 characters become cumbersome to type and more
prone to errors.
Note difference in the way
737s are defined and no
definition of 747 in second
column. This makes use of
look up tables very difficult

Corporate Modeling

33

Oct 1, 2015

SPREADSHEET CONVENTION: Repeating Inputs


to Make Calculations Clear to Readers

In Order to Keep Formulas Simple, it can be beneficial to repeat


the inputs
Inputs are near the formula
Inputs are also in a separate sheet allowing for value drivers
etc.

Corporate Modeling

34

Oct 1, 2015

Simple Formulas

Corporate Modelling

35Oct 1, 2015

SPREADSHEET CONVENTION: Keep Formulas as


Simple as Possible

Keep formulas simple


Separate complex formulas into components
Document the flow of the formulas
Manager should be able to read the printouts and understand the model
Show the formula computations in a cell

Make the presentation transparent by showing components near the


formula
Formulas should not extend past the formula box
The longer the formula, the likelier it is that a sign could be reversed
when calculating things such as interest expense and interest
income.

Corporate Modeling

36

Oct 1, 2015

Keeping Formulas Simple


When you first program a sheet, the formulas are often too
complicated
This occurs when you add features to a spreadsheet
Sometimes there are macros when the computations can be
accomplished in other ways.
It is easier to add classes for different types of plant, sales, etc.,
than to try an interpolate.
Bad Cell Risk
When working in a team environment, it is advisable to
assign one person to be responsible for the master
spreadsheet and for making all changes and updates.

Corporate Modeling

37

Oct 1, 2015

Try not to Make the Models and Formulas too Complex


In reviewing a model, it is a lot easier to audit relatively simple
formulas.
Show revenues, expenses and capital expenditures
separately
Present the financial statements
Compute various outputs
Complex models with range names, macros, long if statements,
numerous sheets can be difficult to review
Dont try to do multiple things in one section of the spreadsheet

Corporate Modeling

38

Oct 1, 2015

Example of Too Complex Formulas

When formulas are this long, it is


very difficult to audit them

Corporate Modeling

39

Oct 1, 2015

Use of ALT-ENTER to Layout complex Formulas


If you cannot avoid complex formulas, you can use the ALTENTER command to lay-out a complex formula and make the
components easier to read.
Putting the formula
on different lines
can make a long
formula somewhat
easier to read.

The ALT,ENTER
creates a line
break.

Corporate Modeling

40

Oct 1, 2015

Example of Complex Formula

If Statement and Difficult to Follow Look-up


tables

Corporate Modeling

41

Oct 1, 2015

Documented Lookup Table

Look-up table inputs are near


the look-up table and are
illustrated, range names are
used

Corporate Modeling

42

Oct 1, 2015

Simplified Formula

Formula is still a little complex, but it is


illustrated from lines above and it is
documented with range names

Corporate Modeling

43

Oct 1, 2015

Try Not to Use Too Many Excel Functions


Excel functions can be very helpful, but they can cause confusion
if people reading the model dont have the same background as
you.

Corporate Modeling

44

Oct 1, 2015

More Readable Excel


The following example still uses the excel commands, but at a bit
more understandable

Corporate Modeling

45

Oct 1, 2015

Example of Non-Transparent Calculation


You do not know which Rate is the driver of
revenues.

You do not know whether to change one


year or multiple years

Calculations are not in logical order


Which quantities and prices determine
the revenues of 20,000 You need to know
which one drives the revenues

Corporate Modeling

46

Oct 1, 2015

Improved Sheet with Logical Order and Coded Inputs


Re-order to show
calculation process

Indents

Corporate Modeling

47

Oct 1, 2015

Example of Long Formulas and Other Problems

There are a couple of problems


here

Inputs should be
in color
Formula Difficult to
Follow and Too
Long

Formulas with
blanks
Corporate Modeling

48

Oct 1, 2015

Multiple Links from the Same Source

If you are re-using a number


from an initial source, link to the
original number in the source
rather than using links to the
prior link. This enables the trace
precedent and trace dependent
keys to be used more effectively.

Before you
delete a
number, use
the trace
dependent
function

With direct links to the


source instead of indirect
links, the dependent
functions work more
efficiently

Corporate Modeling

49

Oct 1, 2015

Use of Arrows for Auditing

Some people believe strongly in using the precedent and dependent arrows. For
example, before deleting a cell, check whether it is a dependent for other cells.

You can also use the CNTL, [ and the CNTL, ] key stroke sequence.

In the example below, the trace dependent shows that deleting a cell will cause
problems

Notice the trace


dependent buttons
are shown on the
excel bar

Corporate Modeling

Use the trace


dependent and
make sure
nothing depends
on the cell
before deleting a
cell.

50

Oct 1, 2015

Put Things in Correct Order in Cash Flow Waterfall


Modeling a cash flow waterfall can be complex
Defaulted debt
Covenants
Debt Service Reserves
Show details of minimum and maximum tests
Put the waterfall in logical order
Make calculations refer to lines above, if possible

Corporate Modeling

51

Oct 1, 2015

Waterfall Example

The example below illustrates the model of a cash flow waterfall. Note that you
should put the cash balance back into the waterfall and then subtract it at the end
of the waterfall.

Corporate Modeling

52

Oct 1, 2015

Illustration of Problems with Formatting of Waterfall

This example shows a typical


example of a cash flow page
that does not order the
waterfall. It is very difficult to
determine the default
probability on the loan without
seeing the cash flow to each
issue.

Corporate Modeling

53

Oct 1, 2015

SPREADSHEET CONVENTION: Max, Min rather


than If Statements
When possible, use max or min statements rather than if
statements
The max and min statements are easier to audit
If statement
If (EBT > 0, EBT x tax rate, 0)
Max(EBT x tax rate, 0)

The max and min are more difficult to think through, but
much easier to audit later on

Corporate Modeling

54

Oct 1, 2015

SPREADSHEET CONVENTION: Positive Number


Convention

In the financial statements, input all formulas as positive numbers, even if


the item is a subtraction from net income or cash flow.
For example, even though capital expenditures and debt repayments are a reduction in cash flow, the numbers should be
positive and the totals should subtract the numbers

This is helpful for audits and makes sub-totals and summations much
simpler you dont have to remember whether to add or subtract the
numbers.

This does not mean that every number is positive (e.g. negative W.C.)
The idea is that subtotals should be consistent with the logic of the
calculation e.g. capital expenditure is a subtraction from cash flow.

When you use the positive number convention, show what


is deducted and added to the total in the title of each row.

Corporate Modeling

55

Oct 1, 2015

Example of Positive Number Convention

In this example, the draws are


added and the repayments are
subtracted even though all
numbers are shown as positive
numbers.

Corporate Modeling

56

Oct 1, 2015

SPREADSHEET CONVENTION: Model Switches

Models often have switches


Switch for time periods
Time period of explicit cash flows in valuation
Time period for terminal value in valuation
Construction period in project finance model

Tax carryforward methods


Interest Timing
Depreciation Methods
Dividend Methods

Put the Switches Together and Make them Easy to Understand

Use logical statements to create switches

Corporate Modeling

57

Oct 1, 2015

Use Excel Conventions


Excel Uses a Number of Conventions such as:
Logical Variables
True = 1
False = 0

Row first and Column Second

For example, in setting a switch from a question make


sure that true is 1.
For example, in reading in a table, use the row first and
column second convention

Corporate Modeling

58

Oct 1, 2015

Example of Using Switches

The sheet below uses


switches to define
various calculations.
The switches are part of
the calculation where
TRUE = 1 and FALSE =
0.

Corporate Modeling

59

Oct 1, 2015

Example of Switches Difficult to Find

Corporate Modeling

60

Oct 1, 2015

SPREADSHEET CONVENTION: Presentation and


Use of Cork Screws

Cork Screws involve:


Laying out the beginning and ending balance
Showing retirements and new additions
Beginning balance = ending balance from previous period
Ending balance = Beginning balance + Additions - Deductions
Cork screws are useful for balance sheet accounts and capacity
balance
LIFO Inventories
Number of Planes by Type
Debt issues and cash reserves

Corporate Modeling

61

Oct 1, 2015

Example of Problems without Cork Screws Cannot See


Flow of Capacity

Corporate Modeling

62

Oct 1, 2015

Corrected with Cork Screws

Clearly lay out the beginning


balance and the ending balance

Corporate Modeling

63

Oct 1, 2015

Use of Cork Screws

Beginning Balance of current year


is the ending balance of the last
year

Corporate Modeling

64

Oct 1, 2015

SPREADSHEET CONVENTION: Show units in


working calculation

You should show the units in each calculation where the production portion
of the spreadsheet is developed. The use of units is illustrated below:

Show the units in a


separate column

Corporate Modeling

65

Oct 1, 2015

Range Name Advantages, Disadvantages and Optimal Use

Corporate Modelling

66Oct 1, 2015

SPREADSHEET CONVENTION: Appropriate Use of


Range Names

Some suggest that each cell in a spreadsheet should be named for


documentation.

Problems with Range Names


Cannot trace the calculations
Models become unstable
Difficult to add to models

Benefits of Range Names


Macros
Look-up Tables
Switches
Combo Boxes

Corporate Modeling

67

Oct 1, 2015

Moving Between Sheets

Given the number of sheets in a financial model, it is important to


keep track of where the numbers come from:
Mark which rows are to be transferred to another sheet
Use one color for rows that are to be transferred out
Use another color for rows that are transferred in
Transfer Inputs at the top of the page

If you are using range names, then use a range name code
for each sheet
E.g.
INPUT_tax_rate
WORKING_Revenue

Corporate Modeling

End of the code is the sheet


where the range name is
located

68

Oct 1, 2015

Range Name Conventions


Document name of the range in the spreadsheet
Can color named ranges
Clean-up range names
Use range names in macros

Corporate Modeling

69

Oct 1, 2015

Use of Named Ranges

Some people believe every range should be named in the


spreadsheet

A convention is to name every variable in the sheet with the same


prefix

You cannot have spaces in named ranges

Find named ranges with the Insert, Name, Define Command in Excel

If you are using a range name, show the name of


the cell, row, column or table in the spreadsheet so
it is easy to see where the range name is located.

Corporate Modeling

70

Oct 1, 2015

Example of Range Names

Example of Using Range Names


in the model

Corporate Modeling

71

Oct 1, 2015

Problem with Range Names Delete a Name and You


Get Errors

Name Box

Corporate Modeling

72

Oct 1, 2015

SPREADSHEET CONVENTION: Circular Reference


Problems
Circular Reference Solutions
Use the Iteration Check Mark on the Options, Calculations
menu
Use macro to work through equations
Compute the equations
Problems with iteration
Cannot use the undo key
Goal seek does not work
Model is unstable

Corporate Modeling

73

Oct 1, 2015

Spreadsheet Convention: Keep Top of Sheets in Same Format


when Working with Multiple Sheets

Corporate Modelling

74Oct 1, 2015

Consolidating Sheets
With multiple assets it is sometimes more effective to work with
multiple sheets rather than a single sheet.
Keep track of the age of each plant
Measure the real costs by the age of the plant and then
inflate the real costs later

If you are copying the same sheet, do


not use range names!

Corporate Modeling

75

Oct 1, 2015

Working with Dates in Models

Corporate Modelling

76Oct 1, 2015

Show the Age and the Number of Operating Days


Explicitly in the Model

A difficult problem in models is coming up with start dates and end dates
This can become complex if the project begins in the middle of a year.
Use switches, cork screws and many rows to model the beginning date
and ending date

Corporate Modeling

77

Oct 1, 2015

Excel Tools

Corporate Modelling

78Oct 1, 2015

SPREADSHEET CONVENTION: Do not force different


inputs to be the same
Example:
Book life and economic life
Book depreciation and tax depreciation

Corporate Modeling

79

Oct 1, 2015

Macros
Keep Complex Macros to Minimum
Use Range Names in Macros
Otherwise cannot insert or delete columns and rows
Makes documentation of macro more straightforward
Uses of Macros
Sensitivity analysis
Goal seek (although can use solver)

Corporate Modeling

80

Oct 1, 2015

Location of Macros

Create a button for macros

Keep the macros in separate sheet

Keep programs in the same module

Put functions between programs so they can be found

Corporate Modeling

81

Oct 1, 2015

Documentation of Macros

It is good to
explain exactly
what the macro
does and use
excerpts from word
or from power
point to explain the
process

Insert documentation by
creating a word
document and copying
and then pasting
special into a
spreadsheet.
Corporate Modeling

82

Oct 1, 2015

Auditing and Documentation

Corporate Modelling

83Oct 1, 2015

Model Checks

Standard and Poors


Simple checks can go a long way to limit errors
Always keep the operating margin (EBITDA/Sales) in sight

McKinsey
If the ROIC exceeds WACC, then the market value should be
more than book value
Steady state growth should occur when the terminal period is
reached
Check valuation with the multiples

For Project Finance Models


Keep IRRs, cash flows and DSCRs in sight
Project IRR should equal Equity IRR with no debt

Corporate Modeling

84

Oct 1, 2015

Documentation of Models

Document the models with comments, descriptions, range names,


or columns.

Think about titles of columns and make them as descriptive as


possible.

Include the units on all the columns.

It would be good to place comments in each line of a model to


describe the source of data and the calculation.
Titles difficult to interpret

Corporate Modeling

85

Oct 1, 2015

Auditing Suggestions

Mechanical Checks

Compute Comparative Ratios

Test Extreme Values

Perform Sensitivity Analysis

Compare Forecasts to History

Do not be afraid to re-do models

Corporate Modeling

86

Oct 1, 2015

Mechanical Checks

Balance Sheet Balances


Use abs() function
Check in each year

Project Finance
Positive Dividends
Ending debt and asset balance
Source and use statement balance

Corporate Model
Historic Income Reconciles
Historic Balance Sheet Ties

Corporate Modeling

87

Oct 1, 2015

Example of Mechanical Checks

Corporate Modeling

88

Oct 1, 2015

Comparative Ratios

There is no magic formula


Compute and Graph
Interest/Debt
Depreciation/Gross Plant
EBITDA/Sales
Dividend Payout Ratio
Return on Investment
Return on Equity

Put in very simple cases

Corporate Modeling

89

Oct 1, 2015

Test the Model with Extreme Values

Put in 100% Equity and make sure cash flow before financing
equals free cash flow

Put in beginning and end of year to test year fraction inputs

Put in large negative cash flows to see what happens

Corporate Modeling

90

Oct 1, 2015

Auditing

Keep Inputs from Formulas in the same sheet

Use Range Names for Scalars and Arrays

Use Sensitivity Analysis

Try Model with Extreme Values

Check Balance Sheet, Sources, Total Construction, Total Debt,


Ending Balances, Dividends etc.

Total Debt Issues = Debt on Balance Sheet

Historic Assets = Modeled Assets

Historic Income = Modeled Income

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Use of Sensitivity Analysis and Tornado Diagrams to


Check Model

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Two Methods for Audit

Method 1: Trace the formulas


Use F2 key

Method 2: Test model with extreme inputs


Example Move the cash up and down and make sure the
debt and cash are working

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Reference: Modeling Concepts

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Time Periods in Models


Reasons for small time increments
Accurate interest expense
Accurate revenue or expense accounting
Timing of capital expenditures

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Method for Accounting for Small Time Increments

Keep track of dates

Insert time annual and periodic time periods at top of the sheet
Use look-up tables
Use if statement to increment time periods
If prior quarter < 4, increment by 1, otherwise reset to 1
If prior month < 12, increment by 1, otherwise reset to 1

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Use of Sumif to Aggregate Small Time Increments

The sumif command can be used to aggregate monthly or quarterly figures into
annual amounts

Sumif (sum range, year, periodic range)


Use absolute cell reference for the sum range
Use the absolute reference only on the row number for the year
Use the absolute reference only on the column name for the periodic range
Sum Range

Corporate Modeling

Year

Periodic Range

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Oct 1, 2015

Debt Modeling Concepts


Use cork screws
Look-up tables for installments and interest rate
Look-up tables with TRUE where use less than or equal to
for the period
Periodic computations
In project finance, combine with monthly source and use
statement
Test re-payment using min statement and beginning balance
Min beginning balance, scheduled repayment

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Model Checks

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More Issues

How can we make the models flexible enough to incorporate inevitable


delays in construction and alternative retirement dates?

What are some of the excel rules that guide accurate and efficient
development of models?

How can project finance models be audited to check errors that we will
make?

What should we do to incorporate alternative debt structures and interest


during construction into the model?

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Oct 1, 2015

Model Checks
Add a balance sheet and check to make sure that it balances
Lower assumptions and see what happens when there is
negative cash flow
Check the final balances of assets to make sure they are
depreciated
Make sure the sources of funds equal the uses of funds
Check the ending debt balance

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Income Statement Checks


Relate various lines from the income statement to the balance sheet:
Consistency of expenses and revenues with history if possible
Check average interest rate: Interest expense divided by the
average debt
Compute depreciation rate: Depreciation expense divided by the
gross plant
Growth rates on prices and expense ratios

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Oct 1, 2015

Check the Financial Statements


Read the financial statements
Be able to explain trends in EBITDA and Operating cash
flow relative to historic data
Evaluate the capital expenditures as compared to historic
amounts

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Oct 1, 2015

Other Checks

Dividends should be logical -- there should be no dividends during the


construction period

Logical dividend checks - you must not allow negative dividends

Vary the economic assumptions and see if the results change as


expected. Dont try to explain away illogical results

Print out the financial statements and read them. This is old fashion, but
it is the best check.

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Model Transparency

Transparency is not a precise concept, but in general, the model


should
Show the key drivers
Allow an audit that can be performed in a couple of hours
Clarify what are inputs and what are outputs
Financial statements should be a primary part of the model

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Simple Example

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Circularity

Columns

Solver try by hand

Solver number of iterations

Complex
IDC
Plant Additions
Plant Retirements

Redundant Stuff

Subtotals

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