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    A Brief On Climate Downscaling: Motivation, Approaches, Applications, Discussions

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    This document provides an overview of climate downscaling methods including their motivations, approaches, and applications. It discusses both statistical and dynamical downscaling. Statistical downscaling identifies statistical links between large-scale climate predictors and local climate predictands. Dynamical downscaling uses regional climate models to explicitly predict local physical processes. Examples are given of using dynamical downscaling to study impacts of climate change on river basins, disease spread, and wind energy production.

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    A Brief On Climate Downscaling: Motivation, Approaches, Applications, Discussions

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    nilbuhe
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    This document provides an overview of climate downscaling methods including their motivations, approaches, and applications. It discusses both statistical and dynamical downscaling. Statistical downscaling identifies statistical links between large-scale climate predictors and local climate predictands. Dynamical downscaling uses regional climate models to explicitly predict local physical processes. Examples are given of using dynamical downscaling to study impacts of climate change on river basins, disease spread, and wind energy production.

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    This document provides an overview of climate downscaling methods including their motivations, approaches, and applications. It discusses both statistical and dynamical downscaling. Statistical downscaling identifies statistical links between large-scale climate predictors and local climate predictands. Dynamical downscaling uses regional climate models to explicitly predict local physical processes. Examples are given of using dynamical downscaling to study impacts of climate change on river basins, disease spread, and wind energy production.

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    Download as ppt, pdf, or txt
    78 views26 pages

    A Brief On Climate Downscaling: Motivation, Approaches, Applications, Discussions

    Uploaded by

    nilbuhe
    This document provides an overview of climate downscaling methods including their motivations, approaches, and applications. It discusses both statistical and dynamical downscaling. Statistical downscaling identifies statistical links between large-scale climate predictors and local climate predictands. Dynamical downscaling uses regional climate models to explicitly predict local physical processes. Examples are given of using dynamical downscaling to study impacts of climate change on river basins, disease spread, and wind energy production.

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    of 26

    A Brief on Climate Downscaling:

    Motivation, Approaches,
    Applications, Discussions
    David Yates and David Gochis
    National Center for Atmospheric Research
    31 May 2011

    Outline
    Climate downscaling Motivation
    Overview of RALs Climate Four Dimensional
    Data Assimilation System
    Overview of the NCAR Nested Regional Climate
    Model
    Examples of downscaled climate information

    Science Questions:
    Questions:
    How will precipitation change over key river basin?
    Seasonality
    Phase
    Intensity

    What is the influence of the precipitation changes on terrestrial


    hydrology?
    SWE (peak, seasonal accumulation and ablation)
    Soil moisture and ET
    Runoff

    Climate downscaling methods


    Empirical or statistical techniques
    Identify links between large-scale climate elements
    (predictors) and local climate (the predictand), and
    apply to output from global or regional models.

    Terrain elevation and slope.


    Land cover (forest, water body, crop land).
    Historical meteorological measurements.
    Expert knowledge.

    Dynamical techniques
    Explicitly predicts the physical processes of the
    climate system.
    4

    Downscaling Paradigms:

    Emphasizes range of probabilities over


    process
    More complete in terms of distribution
    of outcomes
    Applies suspect assumptions in crossscale interpretations
    Cant account for many non-linearites
    in climate system processes
    Neglects, rigorous process evaluation

    Downscaling Paradigms:

    Emphasizes process over


    representation
    Identifies processes behind the
    answer
    Accounts for changes in dynamical
    and microphysical structures (e.g.
    non-linear impacts)
    Neglects the plausible range of likely
    outcomes
    6

    Downscaling Paradigms:

    Emphasizes range of probabilities over


    process
    More complete in terms of distribution
    of outcomes
    Applies suspect assumptions in crossscale interpretations
    Cant account for many non-linearites
    in climate system processes
    Neglects, rigorous process evaluation

    Emphasizes process over


    representation
    Identifies processes behind the
    answer
    Accounts for changes in dynamical
    and microphysical structures (e.g.
    non-linear impacts)
    Neglects the plausible range of likely
    outcomes
    7

    Statistical downscaling
    A statistical regression between local climate
    variables and large scale predictors (e.g.,
    large scale atmospheric flow local
    temperature).
    Example: Model output statistics (MOS).
    large-scale analysis
    Predictors
    (Global/Regional Model)

    `
    Predictands
    (values at local scale)
    8

    local value
    8

    Dynamical Downscaling
    Empirical or statistical techniques
    Identify links between large-scale climate elements
    (predictors) and local climate (the predictand), and
    apply to output from global or regional models.

    Terrain elevation and slope.


    Land cover (forest, water body, crop land).
    Historical meteorological measurements.
    Expert knowledge.

    Dynamical techniques
    Explicitly predicts the physical processes of the
    climate system.
    9

    Process-Based Climate Downscaling


    Global scale data mapped to local region
    while adding small scale variability

    Source: Clifford Mass, Univ. Washington

    10

    Dynamical downscaling
    Limited area model
    (LAM) embedded
    within a global
    model.

    M
    LA d
    gri

    Global model
    constrains LAM.
    LAM defines small
    scale features.
    Information only
    passed from global
    model to LAM.

    Global analysis

    11

    Statistical versus dynamical


    downscaling
    Statistical downscaling
    Cheap.
    Makes simplifying
    assumptions about how
    local weather works.
    Statistical relationships
    might not be valid if climate
    undergoes change.

    Source: Clifford Mass, Univ. of Washington

    Dynamical downscaling
    Computationally
    Expensive.
    Physical systems explicitly
    predicted.
    May produce local trends
    not depicted by global
    models.
    12

    Future Climate (FC) Downscaling


    Static- PGW

    Transient

    FC = HistClim + Climate

    FC = CC +Climate

    13

    Static Pseudo-Global Warming (SPGW)


    1.
    2.

    Derive Difference field : U, V, T, geopot. hgt., Psfc and Qv between


    current and future climate periods from a CGCM
    Add difference to current period atmospheric conditions (North American
    Regional Reanalysis, 3-hrly) (2.0 oC temperature increase over

    Colorado, and an increase of mixing ratio on the order of 15 - 20%.)


    Monthly mean of
    past condition
    CCSM 1995-2005
    Monthly mean of
    future condition
    CCSM 2045-2055

    Caveat:

    No change in transient spectra (i.e. same climate variability in the future


    except for changes in storms within the domain)
    14

    Transient Pseudo-Global Warming (TPGW)


    1.
    2.

    3.

    Derive Bias field : U, V, T, geopot. hgt., Psfc and Qv between current and
    future climate periods from a CGCM
    Add difference to current period atmospheric conditions (North American
    Regional Reanalysis, 3-hrly) (2.0 oC temperature increase over Colorado,

    and an increase of mixing ratio on the order of 15 - 20%.)


    CCSM = CCSM + CCSM
    Monthly mean of
    Obs Condition
    1970-2000
    Monthly mean of
    CCSM 1970-2000

    Caveat:

    Change in transient spectra (i.e. same climate variability in the future except
    15
    for changes in storms within the domain)

    16

    Imposed Warming Experiment:


    500mb Wind and Geopotential Height

    Current

    Future-Current

    Future

    All positive changes

    17

    Imposed Warming Experiment:

    Current

    Future

    Future-Current

    18

    Imposed Warming Experiment:


    500mb RH

    Current
    Current

    Future
    Future

    Future-Current

    19

    Assessing Climate Phase: Mean Annual Cycle


    Precipitation

    Temperature

    20

    Motivation

    Large-scale climate
    models use horizontal
    grid increments of 60300 km.
    Consequence or impact
    models require grid
    increments of 10 km or
    smaller.

    Source: David Viner, Climatic Res. Unit, Univ. of East Anglia, UK.

    21

    Motivation
    Seasonal, yearly, inter-annual to decadal climate
    variability strongly impacts society.
    Water resources.
    Flood risk.
    Spread of infectious disease.
    Energy demand and production.
    Building design and construction.
    Regional transport and dispersion.
    Locating weather-sensitive installations (airports).
    Locating new observing systems.
    22

    Science Questions:
    Questions:
    How will precipitation change over river basin?
    Seasonality
    Phase
    Intensity

    What is the influence of precipitation changes on terrestrial


    hydrology?
    Snow Water (peak, seasonal accumulation and ablation)
    Soil moisture and ET
    Runoff

    Pprocess/physics-based approach:
    Interested in identifying the processes
    behind the answer
    Ability to consistently account for
    changes in dynamical and microphysical
    structures (e.g. non-linear impacts)

    23

    NRCM: Impacts of climate change


    on spread of disease
    How will vulnerability to dengue evolve with climate and
    land use changes?

    24

    NRCM: Impacts of climate change


    on spread of disease
    Map

    CCSM3
    (~150 km resolution)

    NRCM
    (20 km resolution)

    1800 UTC 2-m temperature difference for March 2057-2059 and


    March 2007-2009.

    (Simulations performed by Cody Phillips, NSAP)

    25

    NRCM: Impacts of climate change


    on wind energy production
    GDF SUEZ interested in impacts of climate change on a
    proposed wind farm near the Belgian coast.
    NRCM DOMAINS

    NRCM

    CCSM

    D_01

    D_02
    D_03

    Temperature (deg C)

    Comparison of CCSM and NRCM wind vectors, near-surface


    temperature (colors), and sea level pressure (blue lines) for
    1200 UTC 02 January 2020.

    26

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