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The Binomial, Poisson, and Normal Distributions: Modified After Powerpoint by Fauziah Binti Aziz

The document discusses key probability distributions - binomial, Poisson, and normal distributions. It provides an overview of each distribution, including their origins and important properties. The binomial distribution describes the probability of success in yes/no trials, and uses parameters like number of trials (n), probability of success (p), and number of successes (x). The Poisson distribution approximates the binomial when there are many trials with low probability of success. The normal distribution approximates many real-world processes, and has a characteristic bell curve shape defined by its mean and variance. It arises from the addition of independent random variables. Examples are provided to illustrate concepts.

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682 views25 pages

The Binomial, Poisson, and Normal Distributions: Modified After Powerpoint by Fauziah Binti Aziz

The document discusses key probability distributions - binomial, Poisson, and normal distributions. It provides an overview of each distribution, including their origins and important properties. The binomial distribution describes the probability of success in yes/no trials, and uses parameters like number of trials (n), probability of success (p), and number of successes (x). The Poisson distribution approximates the binomial when there are many trials with low probability of success. The normal distribution approximates many real-world processes, and has a characteristic bell curve shape defined by its mean and variance. It arises from the addition of independent random variables. Examples are provided to illustrate concepts.

Uploaded by

fatanahaishah
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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The Binomial,

Poisson, and
Normal
Distributions
Modified after PowerPoint by Fauziah Binti Aziz

Probability distributions
O We use probability

distributions
because they work
they fit lots of data
in real world

100

80

60

40

20

Std. Dev = 14.76


Mean = 35.3
N = 713.00

Ht (cm) 1996

Height (cm) of Hypericum


cumulicola at Archbold
Biological Station

Random variable
OThe mathematical rule (or

function) that assigns a


given numerical value to
each possible outcome of
an experiment in the
sample space of interest.

Random variables
ODiscrete random variables
OContinuous random

variables

The Binomial Distribution


Bernoulli Random Variables
O Imagine a simple trial with only two possible

outcomes
O Success (p)
O Failure (q)

O Examples
O Toss of a coin (heads or tails)

Jacob Bernoulli (16541705)

O Sex of a newborn (male or female)

O Survival of an organism in a region (live or die)

The Binomial Distribution


Overview
O Suppose that the probability of success is p
O What is the probability of failure?
Oq = 1 p
O Examples
O Toss of a coin (S = head): p = 0.5 q = 0.5
O Roll of a die (S = 1): p = 0.1667 q = 0.8333
O Fertility of a chicken egg (S = fertile): p = 0.8

q = 0.2

The Binomial Distribution


Overview
O Imagine that a trial is repeated n times
O Examples
O A coin is tossed 5 times
O A die is rolled 25 times
O 50 chicken eggs are examined
O Assume p remains constant from trial to trial and that

the trials are statistically independent of each other

The Binomial Distribution


Overview
O What is the probability of obtaining x successes in

n trials?
O Example
O What is the probability of obtaining 2 heads

from a coin that was tossed 5 times?


P(HHTTT) = (1/2)5 = 1/32

The Binomial Distribution


Overview
O But there are more possibilities:

HHTTT

HTHTT
THHTT

HTTHT
THTHT
TTHHT

P(2 heads) = 10 1/32 = 10/32

HTTTH
THTTH
TTHTH
TTTHH

The Binomial Distribution


Overview
O In general, if trials result in a series of success and

failures,

FFSFFFFSFSFSSFFFFFSF
Then the probability of x successes in that order is
P(x) = q q p q
= px qn x

The Binomial Distribution


Overview
O However, if order is not important, then

P(x) = n!
px q n x
x!(n x)!
n!
where x!(n x)!
x successes

is the number of ways to obtain

in n trials, and i! = i (i 1) (i 2) 2 1

The Binomial Distribution


Overview

The Poisson Distribution


Overview
O When there is a large number of

trials, but a small probability of


success, binomial calculation
becomes impractical
O Example: Number of deaths
from horse kicks in the Army
in different years
O The mean number of successes

from n trials is = np
O Example: 64 deaths in 20
years from thousands of
soldiers

Simeon D. Poisson
(1781-1840)

The Normal Distribution


Overview
O Discovered in 1733 by de Moivre as an approximation

to the binomial distribution when the number of trails


is large
O Derived in 1809 by Gauss

Abraham de
Moivre (16671754)

O Importance lies in the Central Limit Theorem, which

states that the sum of a large number of independent


random variables (binomial, Poisson, etc.) will
approximate a normal distribution
O Example: Human height is determined by a large

number of factors, both genetic and environmental,


which are additive in their effects. Thus, it follows a
normal distribution.

Karl F.
Gauss
(17771855)

The Normal Distribution


Overview

O A continuous random variable is said to be

normally distributed with mean and variance 2


if its probability density function is
1
(x ) /2
f
e
(x)= 2
2

O f(x) is not the same as P(x)


O P(x) would be 0 for every x because the normal

distribution is continuous
x2
O However, P(x1 < X x2) =
x1

f(x)dx

The Normal Distribution


Overview

The Normal Distribution


Overview

The Normal Distribution


Overview

Mean changes

Variance changes

The Normal Distribution


Length of Fish
O A sample of rock cod in Monterey Bay suggests that the

mean length of these fish is = 30 in. and 2 = 4 in.

O Assume that the length of rock cod is a normal random

variable
O If we catch one of these fish in Monterey Bay,
O What is the probability that it will be at least 31 in.

long?
O That it will be no more than 32 in. long?
O That its length will be between 26 and 29 milimetres?

The Normal Distribution


Length of Fish
O What is the probability that it will be

at least 31 mm. long?

The Normal Distribution


Length of Fish
O

That it will be no more than 32 in. long?

The Normal Distribution


Length of Fish
O That its length will be between 26

and 29 inches?

Standard Normal
Distribution
O =0 and 2=1
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
-6

-4

-2

Useful properties of the


normal distribution
1. The normal distribution

has useful properties:


O Can be added E(X+Y)=
E(X)+E(Y) and 2(X+Y)=
2(X)+ 2(Y)
O Can be transformed with
shift and change of
scale operations

Exercise

Location of
the
measuremen
t

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