LECTURE FOUR LEVEL IV

MBChB
PROF. E.K. MUCHUNGA
School of Public Health
University of Nairobi

THE LIFE TABLES

Goal
To define the life tables, outline types of life tables, history,
assumptions, anatomy and application of life tables.
Definition of Life Tables
Is a statistical model that is used to derive some measures of
mortality. Though the core function is the measurement of
mortality, it is applied in different ways by Public health
workers, Demographers, Actuaries to study Longevity,
fertility, migration, population growth as well as projections
of population size, widowhood, orphanhood and length of
married life.
The entire life table is generated from age-specific mortality
rate and the resulting values are used to measure mortality,
survivorship and life expectancy.

Definition of Life Tables (Contd)

Life tables are one form of combining mortality rates of
a population at different ages into a single statistical
model. Consequently, the life table is not influenced by
the age distribution of an actual population and do not
require the adoption of a standard population.

Types of Life Tables

Differences occur due to the (1) Reference year of
the table (2). The age details (3) Number of
factors in the table.
(1)The Current or Period Life Tables

(for a short period

of time)

() Is based on the experience over a short period of

time one year, two years or three years during
which mortality has remained unchanged.
() The table represents the combined experience by
age of the population in a particular short period
of time treated synthetically. Can be viewed as a
snapshot of current mortality studied crosssectionally. The cohort is however, artificial or
synthetic that is subject to the Age Specific Death

The Life Tables (Contd)

(2) The Generation Life Tables
Is based on the mortality experience by a particular
birth cohort. For example, all persons born in 1940,
1950, 1960, 1980 or 1990s. This means observing the
mortality experience of the cohort longitudinally from
birth till all of them die.
Due to challenges in constructing such a table, the
table is used for projecting mortality, studying
mortality trends and for measurement of fertility and
reproductivity.

Complete Life Tables (Unabridged- Full)

According to the length of the age interval in
which data are presented. In this context, data
are presented for every single year of age from 0
to the last applicable age (85 years or so).
The Abridged Life Tables
Contains data by intervals of five or ten years of
age. In most cases, the simpler abridged life
table is prepared rather than the elaborate
complete life table.

Is

Standard Life Table

concerned with the general

mortality

The Life Tables (Cont)

Multiple Decrement Life Table
Describes the separate and combined effects of more than one
factor e.g. marriage and mortality; occupation and mortality
etc. i.e. mortality and another factor
History of Life Tables
The earliest life tables originated in Europe around 1662
pioneered by Graunt. The earliest published life tables in 1693
were based on mortality and birth registration data for a single
city. Thereafter, other Life Tables began to be published during
17th and 18th centuries as data collection techniques improved.
Today, nearly all countries publish elaborate life tables. In USA,
life tables have been published since 1900-02 period.
Developing countries have had life tables published in
Demographic Yearbooks since 1966 (United Nations Population
Division) and by authors such as Ansley Coale and Demeny.

 In Kenya, the Association of Kenya Insurers (AKI)

launched a mortality table for insured lives in the
country for the period 2001-2003.
By applying Kenyas mortality table, the country
became one of the few in Africa to construct
own table using local actuaries led by Alexander
Forbes Financial Services the leading firm of
consulting actuaries.
In the past, local efforts in constructing own life
tables have not been successful due to problems
in data collection. This achievement will imply
replacing the English Life Tables of 1949-52 and
the 1955 annuity tables that are currently
prescribed in the insurance act.

Assumptions of the Life Table

As noted earlier, the life table is a life history of a
synthetic group or cohort, as it is diminished gradually
by deaths.
The record begins at the birth of each member and
continues until all members have died.
The synthetic cohort looses a predetermined proportion
at each age, and therefore, represents a situation that
is artificially contrived. This is accomplished with the
assistance of five assumptions. They are:
1. The cohort is closed from in and out migration.
Therefore, there are no changes in membership except
through loses occasioned by deaths.

Assumptions of the Life Table (Contd)

2. People in the Cohort die at each age according to a
schedule (arrangement) that is fixed in advance, and
does not change.
3. The Cohort originates from some standard number of
births (set at 100, 1000, 10,000 or 100,000) called the
radix of the life table. This standardized aspect
facilitates comparison between different life tables.
For example, 5420 members of a starting Cohort of
10,000 who survive to exact age 35 means that 54.2%
are survivors.

4. At each age except the first year of life, deaths are

evenly distributed between one birthday and the next.
That is , half of the deaths expected between ages 9
and 10 will occur by the time everyone reached 9
years and so on.
5. Finally, the Cohort normally contains members of only
one sex. It is however possible to construct a life table
for both sexes, but the differences between male and
female mortality at all ages are sufficient to justify
treating them separately.
Just like in an actual situation, a life tables looses a
great many of its original members at a very early age
when deaths are relatively frequent.

Anatomy of the Life Table

Every value in the table refers to some particular age.
Life Tables represent the effects of mortality by age on
the size of a synthetic Cohort without the interference
of the complicating factor of the actual world.
The basic life table functions - qx, lx ndx, nLx, Tx and eox
are generally calculated and published for every life
table (6 columns in all). However, due to limitations
of space, some of the columns may be omitted. For
example, Demographic Yearbooks publishes only qx, lx
and eox without a significant loss of information since
the functions are interrelated.

The Life Tables

(i) x to x+n is simply the exact period between two ages
e.g. 20 25 means the five year interval between 20th
and 25th birthdays.
(ii) n stands for the width of a time interval. Exact age 0
and exact age 1 equals 1 year. Exact age 1 and exact
age five equals 4 years and so on.
(iii) nqx = the probability of dying between x and x + n.
(iv) The opposite the probability of surviving is npx
(where p+q = 1)
(v) (v)
lx = the number of persons living at the
beginning of age interval x out of a total number of
births assumed as the radix of the L.T. For example,
out of 100,000 newborn female babies in England and
Wales (1985), 98, 692 survived to exact age 20.

The Life Tables (Contd)

(vi) ndx - Is simply the number of persons who would die
within x to
x + n out of a total number of births assumed in the
life table. Example, 825 persons would die between
exact age 0 and exact age 1 in the England & Wales
L.T. cited earlier.
(vii) nLx The number of person-years that would be
lived within the indicated age interval x to x+n out of
the radix.

The Life Tables (Contd)

For USA, 96111 persons would survive to exact age 20.

95,517 would survive to exact age 25.

We take the later figure (95,517 and multiply by 5 (5

year age interval) = 477,585 to get the person-years
lived

Those who died between 20th and 25th birthdays were

594 persons. Applying the assumption of deaths
being distributed between are birthday and next, we
conclude that on the average, those who died lived 2.5
year or half the time period. Add this to 477,585 =
479,070.

 Tx. The total number of person-years that would be

lived after the beginning of the indicated age interval
by the Cohort of 100,000 births assumed. In our
England and Wales example, person-years lived from 0
until 85+ would be 7,756,261. However, the
technique of computing person years lived is bottom
up using nLx.

eox The best known function is simply the average

remaining life time in years for a person who survives to
the beginning of the
indicated age interval. This
function is also referred to as the complete
expectation of life or simply life expectancy. In our
example, a person who had reached her 20th birthday
should expect to live 58.542 years more, on the
average.

Table 1: Simple Life Table

1

nqx

lx

dx

0
1
2
3
4
5+

0.00460 100,000
0.0231
0.0129
0.0065
0.0044
Quickly calculate and enter the missing data in

columns 2 and 3

COUNTRY Y 2010
1

x to x+n nqx

lx

ndx

nLx

Tx

eox

0-1
1-5
5-10
10-15
15-20
20-25
25-30
30-35
35-40
40-45
45-50
50-55
55-60
60-65
65-70
70-75
75-80
80-85
85+

100,000
25,905

25,905

175,915

175,915

0.0147
0.027
0.0017
0.0018
0.0051
0.0067
0.0066
0.0070
0.0097
0.0151
0.0238
0.0370
0.0553
0.0854
0.1168
0.1755
0.2636
0.3612
1.000

ort Answer Questions

Fill in the missing data for Country Y above
Is Country Y a developed or developing Country?
Provide evidence to support your answer in 2 above.

Life Tables
Life Table Interrelationships of functions
All functions in a life table are dependent on one
another, but often the qx is regarded as the most
independent of all functions Indeed, the mortality rate
(nqx) is the initial function from which all other life table
functions are derived.
eox = Tx
lx
- Tx = eox .lx
-

5 l x = Tx T x + 5

dx = Lx. qx

Life Tables
Basic data for current life tables is the census or an accurate
estimate of the population by age and sex. Deaths recorded in
the year of the census or the years around the census year as
well as births firm the same time period are key to life tables.
Life Span and Life Expectancy
In measuring longevity, two concepts should be delineated i.e.
life span and life expectancy.
Life span tries to establish the maximum age human beings as
a species would attain under ideal conditions. In this context,
life span would be defined as the age beyond which less than
0.1% of the original Cohort still survives. Historically, very few
people survive beyond 100 years, and as such, life span is
recorded as 100 years.
Life expectancy is the expected number of years to be lived on
the average. Accurate records exist for many countries from
which estimates have been prepared on a regular basis.

Life Tables

These estimates are derived from a current life table.

From these records, it is apparent that longerity has
shown considerable improvement in the recent
decades. For instance, Kenyas life expectancy that
had declined in the 1990s is now 57 years. Among
female in Japan, life expectancy is well above 85 years.

Application of Life Tables

Life tables can be constructed as a stationary
population. This alternative technique of a stationary
population is defined as a population whose total
number and distribution by age do not change with
time. Such hypothetical population could be obtained if
the number of births per year remained constant
(usually assumed at 100,000) for a long period of time
and each Cohort of births experienced the current
observed mortality rates throughout life. The annual
number of deaths would also equal 100,000.
No
change in the size of the population.

Application of Life Table Data

Human Development Index (HDI)
This is a composite index that measures the average
achievements of a country in three basic components
of human development. These are:
- A long and health life
- Access to knowledge
- A decent standard of living
- These three dimensions are measured by:
(1) Life expectancy at birth
(2) Adult literacy and combined gross enrolment in
primary, secondary and tertially levels of education.
(3) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita in purchasing
power parity in US dollars.

Life Tables (Cont)

With respect to Kenya, life expectancy at birth varies by
provinces, while combining the three indicators reveal
that Nairobi has the best human development index.
Secondly, the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics
(Statistical
Abstract
2009)
has
published
life
expectancy in Kenya with and without HIV/AIDS for the
period 1980-2010.
For males without HIV, the trend analysis show that
there was an upward trend from 58.8 years in 1980 to
64.2 years in 2010. For females, the results were 66.5
years and 71.1 years respectively.

Life Tables (Cont.)

However, the trend changes with HIV/AIDS. A slight
increase (Males) is evident between 1985-1990, but
thereafter, a downward trend between 1995-2000.
Between 2000-2010, an upward trend seem to be
emerging. For females, there was a downward trend
between 1980 until 2005. Thereafter, an upward
trend is evident, though not yet the level seen in
1980-85 period.
Differentials in life expectancy between males and
females has narrowed from 8 years (1980-85) to 5.3
years between 2005-2010.

THE END
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