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Statistics 11

1) Acceptance sampling is used to test product quality by accepting or rejecting batches based on sample sizes and criteria. It has limitations as it occurs late in production and uses binary defective/not defective classifications rather than continuous quality measurements. 2) The exponential distribution describes the time until random, independent events that occur at a constant rate, such as time until product failure. Accelerated life testing exposes products to harsher conditions to induce earlier failures for analysis. 3) The reliability function gives the probability of a product surviving up to a certain time. Failure rate is the probability of failure at a given time, and is constant for the exponential distribution but can increase or decrease for the Weibull distribution depending on its

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29 views21 pages

Statistics 11

1) Acceptance sampling is used to test product quality by accepting or rejecting batches based on sample sizes and criteria. It has limitations as it occurs late in production and uses binary defective/not defective classifications rather than continuous quality measurements. 2) The exponential distribution describes the time until random, independent events that occur at a constant rate, such as time until product failure. Accelerated life testing exposes products to harsher conditions to induce earlier failures for analysis. 3) The reliability function gives the probability of a product surviving up to a certain time. Failure rate is the probability of failure at a given time, and is constant for the exponential distribution but can increase or decrease for the Weibull distribution depending on its

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Navarrete jesus
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© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Stats for Engineers Lecture 11

Acceptance Sampling Summary


Acceptable
quality level:

(consumer happy, want to accept with high probability)

Unacceptable quality level:


(consumer unhappy, want to reject with high probability)

Producers Risk: reject a batch that has acceptable quality

Consumers Risk: accept a batch that has unacceptable


quality

One stage plan: can use table to find number of samples and criterion
Two stage plan: more complicated, but can require fewer samples
Operating characteristic curve

acceptance sampling a good way of quality testing?


Problems:
It is too far downstream in the production process; better if
you can identify where things are going wrong.

It is 0/1 (i.e. defective/OK) - not efficient use of data; large samples


are required.
- better to have quality measurements on a continuous scale:
earlier warning of deteriorating quality and less need for large
sample sizes.
Doesnt use any information about distribution of defective
rates

Reliability: Exponential Distribution revision


Which of the following has an exponential
distribution?

1. The time until a new cars


engine develops a leak
2. The number of punctures in
a cars lifetime
3. The working lifetime of a
new hard disk drive
4. 1 and 3 above
5. None of the above

Exponential distribution gives the time until or between random


independent events that happen at constant rate.
(2) is a discrete distribution.
(1) and (3) are times to random events, but failure rate almost certainly

Reliability
Problem: want to know the time till failure of parts
E.g.
- what is the mean time till failure?
- what is the probability that an item fails before a specified
time?

product lasts for many years, how do you quickly get an idea of the failure time

accelerated life testing:


Compressed-time testing: product is tested under usual
conditions but more intensively than usual (e.g. a washing
machine used almost continuously)

Advanced-stress testing: product is tested under harsher


conditions than normal so that failure happens soon (e.g.
refrigerator motor run at a higher speed than if operating within a fridge) .

- requires some assumptions

How do you deal with items which are still working at the end of the
test programme?
An example of censored data.
we dont know all the failure times at the end of the test

Exponential

data (failure rate independent of time)


Test
components up to a time

- assuming a rate, can calculate probability of no failures in .

- calculate probability of getting any set of failure times (and non failures by )

- find maximum-likelihood estimator for the failure rate in terms of failure tim
For failure times , with for parts working at , and failures

[see notes for derivation]

Example:
50 components are tested for two weeks. 20 of them fail
in this time, with an average failure time of 1.2 weeks.
What is the mean time till failure assuming a constant
failure rate?
Answer:

weeks

mean time till failure is estimated to be

eliability function and failure rate


For
a pdf for the time till failure, define:
Reliability function

Probability

of surviving at least till age . i.e. that failure time is later than

is the cumulative distribution function.


Failure rate

This is failure rate at time given that it survived until time :

Example: Find the failure rate of the Exponential distribution


Answer:
The reliability is

Failure rate,

Note:

is a constant

The fact that the failure rate is constant is a special lack of


ageing property of the exponential distribution.

- But often failure rates actually increase with age.

Reliability function
Which of the following could be a plot of a reliability
function?

( probability of surviving at least till age . i.e. that failure time is


later than )

1.
2.
3.
4.

1.

Wrong1
Wrong2
Correct
wrong3

3.

2.

4.

If we
measure the failure rate , how do we find the pdf?

- can hence find , and hence

Example
Say failure rate measured to be a constant,

- Exponential distribution

The Weibull distribution


- a way to model failure rates that are not constant
Failure rate:
Parameters

(shape parameter) and (scale parameter)


failure

rate constant, Weibull=Exponential


failure rate increases with time
failure rate decreases with time

Failure rate:

Reliability:

Pdf:

The End!

[Note: as from 2011 questions are out of 25 not 20]

Reliability: exam question

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

1/4
3
4
-3
1/3

Answer

Answer
Know

Answer

(), otherwise 0

Answer

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