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    Can Rice Yield Gaps Be Closed? A Theoretical Framework To Explain Yield Gaps at Farm Level With A Case Study For Central Luzon, Philippines

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    Joao Vasco Silva, PhD Thesis Research Scholar SSD, Wageningen University, The Netherlands 1:15pm - 2:15pm | Room A, DL Umali Bldg. International Rice Research Institute DISCLAIMER The results are preliminary and the intention of the presentation is to show the operationalization of the framework and the methodology rather than to present final results.

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    Can Rice Yield Gaps Be Closed? A Theoretical Framework To Explain Yield Gaps at Farm Level With A Case Study For Central Luzon, Philippines

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    Joao Vasco Silva, PhD Thesis Research Scholar SSD, Wageningen University, The Netherlands 1:15pm - 2:15pm | Room A, DL Umali Bldg. International Rice Research Institute DISCLAIMER The results are preliminary and the intention of the presentation is to show the operationalization of the framework and the methodology rather than to present final results.

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    Can rice yield gaps be closed? A theoretical framework to explain yield gaps at farm level with a case study for Central Luzon, Philippines

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    Joao Vasco Silva, PhD Thesis Research Scholar SSD, Wageningen University, The Netherlands 1:15pm - 2:15pm | Room A, DL Umali Bldg. International Rice Research Institute DISCLAIMER The results are preliminary and the intention of the presentation is to show the operationalization of the framework and the methodology rather than to present final results.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    621 views29 pages

    Can Rice Yield Gaps Be Closed? A Theoretical Framework To Explain Yield Gaps at Farm Level With A Case Study For Central Luzon, Philippines

    Uploaded by

    irri_social_sciences
    Joao Vasco Silva, PhD Thesis Research Scholar SSD, Wageningen University, The Netherlands 1:15pm - 2:15pm | Room A, DL Umali Bldg. International Rice Research Institute DISCLAIMER The results are preliminary and the intention of the presentation is to show the operationalization of the framework and the methodology rather than to present final results.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    of 29

    Can rice yield gaps be closed?

    Explaining yield gaps


    at farm level with a case study for Central Luzon

    Joo Vasco Silva


    Plant Production Systems
    Wageningen University
    IRRI CESD/SSD Seminar
    24th November 2014

    Outline of
    the presentation
    I.

    Introduction and objective

    II.

    Theoretical framework
    A. Concepts of production ecology
    B. Decomposing the yield gap

    III. Materials and Methods


    A. Central Luzon Loop Survey
    B. Frontier analysis
    C. Crop modelling: ORYZAv3
    IV. Preliminary results
    V. Summary and final thoughts
    VI. Next steps and further research

    Introduction:
    Rice yield gaps in Southeast Asia

    Introduction:
    Methodologies for Yg analysis
    Yield gap analysis can be used to investigate the relative importance of
    different growth factors and to explain actual production levels (van Ittersum
    & Rabbinge, 1997)
    Crop models have been widely used for yield gap analysis and especially
    for assessing the theoretical maximum crop yields from a biophysical
    perspective but... they do not take into account the effect of biotic factors
    and cannot deal with socio-economic factors such as labour and cash.
    Frontier analysis is a highly flexible, versatile and robust benchmarking
    method widely applied to farm survey data by (agricultural) economists. The
    outcomes tend to be input dependent which makes the comparison across of
    studies rather difficult.
    Why not combining both approaches in a novel theoretical framework to
    take advantage of the opportunities offered by each of them?

    Introduction:
    Why focusing on the farm level?
    Analysis at field level: too fine resolution and does not capture interactions between
    different fields/production activities of the same farm which affect operational, tactical
    and strategic decisions made by farmers.
    Analysis at regional to global levels: too coarse and difficult to capture dynamics and
    feedbacks occurring in each particular farming system. Useful for relative comparisons
    and identify target regions but no meaningful explanations.

    Boling et al. (2010) AgSys

    Neumann et al.
    (2010) AgSys

    Introduction:
    Research objectives
    The objective of this study is to apply and test a combination of
    methods, i.e. frontier analysis and crop modelling, to explain rice yield
    gaps in the period 1979 - 2012 in Central Luzon, the Philippines.
    In this presentation, I will provide a (very) preliminary analysis for the
    periods 1979-1980, 1990-1991 and 2003-2004.

    Specific research questions for this presentation are:


    1. What is the magnitude of the intermediate yield gaps (i.e. efficiency,
    resource and technology) in rice-based farming systems in Central
    Luzon?
    2. How those intermediate yield gaps have changed with time?

    Theoretical framework:
    Concepts of production ecology

    van Ittersum & Rabbinge (1997)

    Production level (y)

    Theoretical framework:
    Efficiency yield gap

    YBF
    YTEx
    For consistency, important
    to control for:

    Efficiency
    yield gap

    YA

    Input level (x)

    Weather conditions
    Soil types
    Rice varieties

    Analysis in multiple InputOutput setting


    It is explained by crop
    management referring to
    time, space, and form of
    application of inputs

    Production level (y)

    Theoretical framework:
    Resource yield gap

    YBF = YOpt
    Resource
    yield gap

    YTEx
    YOpt
    Resource
    yield gap

    Farmersobjectives given
    a set of constraints:

    Input level (x)

    Maximising profits
    Minimising risks
    HH food security
    Maximising RUE

    Theoretical framework:
    Technology yield gap
    YP
    Production level (y)

    Technology
    yield gap

    YBF

    Useful to isolate the effect


    of growth-reducing and
    growth- limiting factors.

    Input level (x)

    It is explained by current
    technologies not being able
    to exploit the full climatic
    potential.

    Theoretical framework:
    Methods and integration

    See also: Herdt & Mandac


    (1981!). Modern Ttechnology
    and economic efficiency of
    Philippines rice farmers.

    Materials and methods:


    Central Luzon loop survey (incl. soil survey)
    Farm household survey 1966 - 2012
    Agro-climatic
    characterization
    Unbalanced
    Panel
    Weather station: Munoz, NE
    Period: 1983 - 2003

    Database of 96 fields (data not


    yet available):
    Moya
    Texture, organic C, T.
    P-Olsen,
    J. van
    Wart et al.
    Exch. K, bulk density,
    depth
    plough pan and bund height

    Materials and methods:


    Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA)
    Years

    Output-oriented DEA with


    variable returns to scale

    1979 (WS) 1980 (DS)


    1990 (WS) 1991 (DS)
    2003 (WS) 2004 (DS)

    Efficiency
    Yield Gap
    (1 )

    Output variables
    Rice yield for MV3 varieties (kg ha-1)

    Input variables
    N application rate (kg N ha-1)
    P application rate (kg P ha-1)
    K application rate (kg K ha-1)
    Seed rate (kg ha-1)
    Herbicide (kg a.i. ha-1)
    Insecticide (kg a.i. ha-1)
    *all fields are irrigated

    Data aggregated for an unique


    farm x field x year x season
    combination.

    Kanellopoulos et al. (2014)

    Limitations of current analysis!


    1.

    Biased TE scores: if we have K inputs


    and M outputs in DEA, then at least
    K+M units will be 100% efficient.

    2.

    Aggregating data in order to avoid


    zero levels of inputs and outputs for
    single observation.

    Materials and methods:


    Estimating YOpt and trade-offs

    Resource
    Yield Gap

    Production perspective:
    YBF was quantified as the average of YA values above the 95th percentile.
    Economic perspective:
    Yopt which corresponds to the maximum revenues, minimum costs or maximum profits can be quantified
    using cost production functions, i.e. estimating the production frontier with inputs and outputs expressed in
    economic terms.

    Environmental perspective:
    Yopt which corresponds to the highest resource-use efficiency of a specific input can be quantified by means
    of indicators such as (single/total) factor productivity or by taking the first order derivative of the production
    frontier. Crop modelling may as well be an option.
    Food security perspective:
    Approaches such as the land gap (Hengsdijk et al. 2014) can be useful to assess whether or not individual
    households match their food security needs by taking into account data on crop yield, farm size and number
    of household members.
    Risk perspective:
    Yopt corresponding to the minimal risk can be quantified using optimisation models based on linear
    programming. This needs further thought....

    Materials and methods:


    Application of ORYZA v3

    Technology
    Yield Gap

    Total Simulations:

    Virtual Experiment:
    500 N management strategies
    500 random N
    management strategies
    1 production level (N limiting)

    1 weather station (Cabanatuan)


    Application rate
    Application timing
    2 soil types (WISE, PhilRice)

    1 variety (IR72)

    Number of splits

    14 years and 36 periods (1999- 2013)

    Simulation
    Input File Generator
    Organizer

    = 500.000 simulations!

    Preliminary results:
    Descriptive statistics, inputs & outputs
    Wet Season

    Dry Season

    P. Moya et al. (in press)

    Preliminary results:
    Efficiency yield gap (1)

    Preliminary results:
    Efficiency yield gap (2)
    2nd stage frontier analysis
    (multiple regression)

    Eff
    YG

    No. land preparation operations


    No. crop establishment activities
    Seed source
    No. fertiliser applications
    Timing of fertiliser applications
    No. pesticide applications
    Timing of pesticide applications
    How?

    Labour use (ld ha-1) and quality


    (hired vs family) per activity?
    Importance of off-farm activities
    (importance of rice)?
    Tenure status of the field (e.g.
    investment in infrastructure)?

    Preliminary results:
    Resource yield gap

    Dry Season

    Preliminary results:
    Technology yield gap (1)

    Preliminary results:
    Technology yield gap (2)

    Sowing Dates?
    SSNM?

    AWD?

    Summary and conclusion:


    Decomposing the yield gap in Central Luzon
    Wet Season

    Dry Season

    Data from this presentation


    and Yp from Laborte et al. (2012)

    Explaining rice yield gaps:


    The farm level (1)
    Complete and thorough yield gap analysis must be done at the farm level and
    hence, requires true multi-disciplinary approaches based on sound agronomy
    and social sciences (socio-economic, institutional and political fields).
    For the sake of consistency, it is important to have clear and standard
    concepts and definitions of the yield gap in order to make explicit the
    limitations and the assumptions behind the analysis.
    Efficiency, resource and technology yield gaps matter! While efficiency and
    technology yield gaps tell us which yield gains can be obtained from
    improved crop management (under current and future technologies), resource
    yield gaps inform us about possible trade-offs between
    economic/environmental and production objectives at the farm level.

    Explaining rice yield gaps:


    Can they be closed? (2)

    Closing rice yield gaps is about on-farm research to disentangle the complexFARM
    interactions involved in crop management and to improve all-farmGAP
    performance, including off-farm activities and income.

    Improved rice crop management is affected by the returns to labour offered


    by off-farm activities and by farmers management skills. Closing efficiency
    and technology yield gaps might require a more attractive agricultural sector as
    well as a greater network for giving local support to farmers.

    There are trade-offs at farm level which may not make it interesting for
    individual farmers to increase their production and hence close the resource
    yield gap. Apart from that, environmental concerns and regulations might
    further hinder such yield increases.

    Time to break free from the yield gap trap ?? (by: Stephanie Malyon , CIAT)
    Yes, rice yield gaps can be closed!!
    But at what cost and risk?!

    Looking forward...
    and further research!
    Refine the estimates of YTEx and estimate resource yield gaps: take the advantage
    of having a rich panel dataset and use more advanced methodologies (i.e. stochastic
    frontier). Make the analysis per soil type.

    Finalize the evaluation of ORYZAv3 and refine its application for Central Luzon by
    integrating crop management information from the CLLS and the quantitative soil
    data collected. Expand frontier to other inputs!
    Think further how to truly integrate these two methodologies in order to have as
    much explanatory power as possible.
    Identify the main causes behind the efficiency, resource and technology yield gaps
    either by means of quantitative (e.g. multiple regression) or qualitative approaches
    (e.g. Bennedict Kerkvliet: Everyday Politics in a Central Luzon Village).
    Test and extend the framework with data from other rice farming systems of SE Asia
    (e.g. Mekong Delta, Vietnam)...?

    Acknowledgements
    Muito obrigado!
    @Wageningen:

    Prof. Dr. Martin van Ittersum (Plant Production Systems)


    Dr. Pytrik Reidsma (Plant Production Systems)
    Prof. Dr. Ken Giller (Plant Production Systems)

    @IRRI:

    Dr. Alice Laborte & team (GIS Lab & MRTeam)


    Dr. Piedad Moya & team (SSD)

    Dr. Tao Li (Crop Modelling)


    Man Marcaida (Crop Modelling)

    Ferdinand Corcuera (Crop Modelling)


    Dr. James Quilty (Soil Sciences)

    Thank you for your attention!


    Questions & suggestions?

    Joo Vasco Silva


    Plant Production Systems
    [email protected]

    Materials and methods:


    Evaluation of ORYZA v3

    RMSE = 16.81

    Technology
    Yield Gap

    RMSE = 21.42

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