Decision Making

And
Problem solving.

Objectives

Define decision ,decision making , problem

solving.

List the five steps in the decision making

process.

Describe at least six techniques to increase

creativity.

dentify at least five decision making tools.

MANAGERIAL ROLES
(Mintzberg):

Interpersonal: fgureheads
leaders

In!or"ational: re#ei$e%
disse"inate #riti#al in!o

&e#isional: initiate a#ti$ities%

handle disturban#es% allo#ate
resour#es% negotiate #on'i#ts

defnition

Decision ! is a solution chosen from among

alternatives .

Decision-making process ! is the process of

selecting an alternative course of action that
"ill solve a problem.

Problem solving: is the process of taking

corrective action in order to meet ob#ectives.

Other Definitions Of Decision Making

The cognitive process of reaching a

decision.

Choosing between alternative courses of

action using cognitive processes -
memory, thinking, evaluation, etc

The process of mapping the likely

conseuences of decisions, working out
the importance of individual factors, and
choosing the best course of action to take.

&e#ision "a(ing and
)roble"*Sol$ing Steps:

&efne the proble"

Gather in!or"ation

&e$elop alternati$es

+eigh alternati$es

Sele#t the best alternati$e

I"ple"ent the solution

Monitor progress and follow up

!tep "# Define the problem and analy$e
the situation and dentify decision criteria

To express the issue in a clear, one-

sentence problem statement that .

Identify root causes, limiting assumptions,

system and organizational boundaries and
interfaces.

Identify resources.

Gathering Information
Exploration of the
Problem
.

%his is the initial activity of decision&

making in "hich you think about all of
the possibilities related to the problem
and the decision.

$dentifcation of %easible
&lternatives

Alternatives 'ptional courses of action from

"hich a decision maker is expected to choose
that are obtained from memory, vendor
search, research and development,.

Alternatives differ in their nature or character,

not only in quantitative details. f A is selected,
( cannot be chosen.

!riteria

!riteria the characteristics or requirements

that each alternative must possess to a
greater or lesser extent. )sually the
alternatives are rated on ho" "ell they
possess each criterion.

%hese decision criteria identify "hat "ill guide

the decision&making process. %hey are the
important facts relevant to the problem as
defined .

%here is no single best criterion for decision making

"here a perfect kno"ledge is present.

!riteria

t is important that decision criteria be

established early in the problem solving
process .

%hese facts can be tangible *"ork

assignments, the "ork schedules, or
"ork orders + as "ell as intangible
*morale, motivation, and personal
feelings and perceptions'.

%he manager must identify all "orkable

alternative solutions for resolving the
problem.
,orkable prevents alternative solutions that
are too expensive, too time&consuming, or too
elaborate.

Alternatives offer different approaches for

changing the initial condition into the
desired condition..

%hese are the possibilities one has to

choose from. Alternatives can be
identified *that is, searched for and
located+ or even developed *created
"here they did not previously exist+

Choose The (ost )esirable
&lternative

%he number and quality of alternatives

depend largely on on the creativity and
productivity of managers and their staff.

Manager could assess the potential

consequences of each alternative .

"ncertainty is a state in "hich the decision&

maker #udges the different possible outcomes
of each alternative but lacks any feeling for
their probabilities of success.

ORGANI,A-IONAL MO&ELS O.
&E/ISION MA0ING

RATIONAL : Maximize organizations benefits and common goals

b selecting t!e best sol"tion to ac!ieve t!e desired o"tcomes#

Disadvantage : "nrealistic ex$ectations% long time

&'R(A')RATI): *ollo+ standard o$erating $roced"res

,-OP.%ro"tine%APP-%formal #

Disadvantage: limited alternative sol"tions %de$ends on !istor#

POLITI)AL: /e gro"$s com$ete and bargain %+in0+in

sit"ations%ma1orit and negotiations#

Disadvantage: limited alternative sol"tions

23AR&A3( )AN4: Organizations not rational5 sol"tions

accidental

LE1ELS O. &E/ISION MA0ING

S-RA-EGI/: Long*ter" ob2e#ti$es%

resour#es% poli#ies

MANAGEMEN- /ON-ROL: Monitor

use o! resour#es% per!or"an#e

0NO+LE&GE*3ASE&: E$aluate
potential inno$ations% (no4ledge

O)ERA-IONAL: 5o4 to #arr6 out

spe#if# da6*to*da6 tas(s


Decision #aking Techni$ues

%he techniques in this chapter help you

to make the best decisions possible
"ith the information you have available.
,ith these tools you "ill be able to map
out the likely consequences of
decisions, "ork out the importance of
individual factors, and choose the best
course of action to take.

Pareto Analysis Selecting the most

important changes to make. Often
better known as The 80/20 !le"#
Pareto helps yo! locate where yo! can
$eri%e the greatest benefit by
e&pen$ing the least relati%e effort 'or
cost or reso!rces or what ha%e yo!(.

Paire$ )omparison Analysis *%al!ating

the relati%e importance of $ifferent
options

+ri$ Analysis Selecting between goo$

options. *%al!ate a larger set of
options base$ on n!mero!s criteria"
then weight the importance of each
criterion to $eri%e the best choice.

,ecision Trees )hoosing between

options by pro-ecting likely o!tcomes

P./ 0eighing the pros an$ cons of

a $ecision

1orce 1iel$ Analysis Analy2ing the

press!res for an$ against change

Si& Thinking 3ats 4ooking at a

$ecision from all points of %iew

)ost/5enefit Analysis Seeing

whether a change is worth making

.!lti%oting6 7arrows a large list of

possibilities to a smaller list of the top
priorities or to a final selection8 allows
an item that is fa%ore$ by all" b!t not
the top choice of any" to rise to the top.

,ecision matri&6 *%al!ates an$

prioriti2es a list of options" !sing pre9
$etermine$ weighte$ criteria.

Barriers to effective clinical
decision making in nursing

Experience and knowledge

Creative thinking

Self Concept

Stress

Inadequate Staffing

Interpersonal Conflict

Decision Strategies

!our main decision making

strategies#

rational

intuitive

recognition primed

the *ltimate )ecision (aking

strategy

ational decision making models

+ational decision making models

involve a #ogniti$e pro#ess
where each step follows in a logical
order from the one before. ,y
cognitive, $ mean it is based on
thinking through and 4eighing up
the alternati$es to come up with
the best potential result

!ros and cons "& rational decision

making model presupposes that
there is one best out#o"e.
,ecause of this it is sometimes
called an optimi-ing decision making
model. The search for perfection is
freuently a factor in actually
delaying making a decision.

$ntuitive decision strategies indicate that there

may be no rationale or logi# behind the
choices made.

!ome people consider these decisions to be

unlikely coincidences, lucky guesses, or some
kind of new-age hocus-pocus. !ome researchers
are even studying the logi# behind the
intuiti$e de#ision making models.

A good plan, executed now, is better than a

perfect plan next week."

/ary 0lein1s recognition primed decision

model is a #o"bination of the frst two.
$ntuition is used to generate a workable
course of action and then you consider
it logically to confrm it as appropriate.

The *ltimate )ecision (aking model put

forward on this site goes beyond 0lein1s
model in that it teaches you your own
personal decision making signals that
are built into 6our o4n biolog6.

Mini"a7: the idea is to minimise the

ma2imum possible loss. ,asically you
determine what the worst outcome of
each alternative is and go for 1the best of
a bad lot1. The attention is obviously on
minimi-ing the worst that can happen.

this decision making strategy is designed

to choose the alternative with the least
chance of disaster.

Ma7i"a7: the idea here is to

ma2imise the ma2imum outcome,
ie., choose your alternative with the
best potential outcome. &lso called
decisions under uncertainty because
several outcomes may occur, but the
probabilities of the outcomes are not
known. 3eople who enjoy risk use
these decision making strategies.

Ris( "ini"ization prin#iple: is about

choosing the alternative with the best
chance of an acceptable outcome. &t frst,
this may seem like ma2ima2, but the latter
has to do with best outcome, this one has
to do with best chance of a favorable
outcome.

Loss a$oidan#e prin#iple: choosing the

alternative with the lowest possibility of
loss.

/reati$e -hin(ing -e#hni8ues

3rainstor"ing:is an idea generating

te#hni8ue9

-hin( !reel69 .ree4heeling: 4ild

thoughts are fne9

/he#(lists:is a standard #olle#tion o!

ite"s (things: $erbs: 8uestions:
approa#hes: attributes) used to re"ind
the #reati$e thin(er o! possible 4a6s to
approa#h a proble" or shape a
solution9