Probability Distributions

Random Variables

An experiment is any process that generates
well-defined outcomes.
A random variable is a numerical description
of the outcome of an experiment.
A discrete random variable may assume either
a finite number of values or an infinite
sequence of values.
A continuous random variable may assume
any numerical value in an interval or
collection of intervals.




Probability Distribution
Describes how the values of a random variable is
distributed.
For example, the collection of all possible outcomes of
a sequence of coin tossing is known to follow
the binomial distribution.
Whereas the means of sufficiently large samples of a
data population are known to resemble the normal
distribution.
Since the characteristics of these theoretical
distributions are well understood, they can be used to
make statistical inferences on the entire data population
as a whole.

Probability Distributions

If a random event is repeated many times, it will
produce a distribution of outcomes (statistical
regularity) (Think about scores on an exam).
The distribution can be represented in two ways.
Frequency distribution function: represents the distribution as the
number of occurrences of each outcome
Probability distribution function: represents the distribution as the
percentage of occurrences of each outcome


The probability distribution for a random
variable describes how probabilities are
distributed over the values of the random
variable.

We can describe a discrete probability
distribution with a table, graph, or equation.

Discrete Probability Distributions
The probability distribution is defined by a
probability function, denoted by f(x), which provides
the probability for each value of the random variable.
The required conditions for a discrete probability
function are:






Discrete Probability Distributions
f(x) > 0
Ef(x) = 1
Using past data on TV sales,
A tabular representation of the probability distribution
for TV sales was developed.
Number
Units Sold of Days
0 80
1 50
2 40
3 10
4 20
200

x f(x)
0 .40
1 .25
2 .20
3 .05
4 .10
1.00
80/200
Discrete Probability Distributions
.10
.20
.30
.40
.50
0 1 2 3 4
Values of Random Variable x (TV sales)
P
r
o
b
a
b
i
l
i
t
y

Discrete Probability Distributions
Graphical Representation of Probability Distribution
Discrete Uniform Probability Distribution
The discrete uniform probability distribution
is the simplest example of a discrete probability
distribution given by a formula.
The discrete uniform probability function is








f(x) = 1/n
where:
n = the number of values the random
variable may assume
the values of the
random variable
are equally likely
Expected Value and Variance
The expected value, or mean, of a random variable
is a measure of its central location.




The variance summarizes the variability in the
values of a random variable.




The standard deviation, o, is defined as the positive
square root of the variance.
Var (x) = o
2
= E(x - )
2
f(x)
E(x) = = Exf(x)
Expected Value
expected number of
TVs sold in a day
x f(x) xf(x)
0 .40 .00
1 .25 .25
2 .20 .40
3 .05 .15
4 .10 .40
E(x) = 1.20
Expected Value and Variance
Variance and Standard Deviation
0
1
2
3
4
-1.2
-0.2
0.8
1.8
2.8
1.44
0.04
0.64
3.24
7.84
.40
.25
.20
.05
.10
.576
.010
.128
.162
.784
x - (x - )
2
f(x) (x - )
2
f(x)
Variance of daily sales = o
2
= 1.660

x
TVs
squared
Standard deviation of daily sales = 1.2884 TVs
Expected Value and Variance
Binomial Distribution
Four Properties of a Binomial Experiment
.

The experiment consists of a sequence of n
identical trials.
Two outcomes, success and failure, are
possible on each trial.
The probability of a success, denoted by p,
does not change from trial to trial.
The trials are independent.



stationarity
assumption
where:
f(x) = the probability of x successes in n trials
n = the number of trials
p = the probability of success on any one trial
( )
!
( ) (1 )
!( )!
x n x
n
f x p p
x n x

Binomial Distribution
Our interest is in the number of successes occurring in
the n trials.
We let x denote the number of successes occurring in
the n trials.
Binomial Probability Function
( )
!
( ) (1 )
!( )!
x n x
n
f x p p
x n x

Binomial Distribution
!
!( )!
n
x n x
( )
(1 )
x n x
p p

Binomial Probability Function

Probability of a particular
sequence of trial outcomes
with x successes in n trials
Number of experimental
outcomes providing exactly
x successes in n trials
Binomial Distribution
Example: Evans Electronics
Evans is concerned about a low retention rate for
employees.
In recent years, management has seen a turnover
of 10% of the hourly employees annually.
Thus, for any hourly employee chosen at
random, management estimates a probability of
0.1 that the person will not be with the company
next year.
Binomial Distribution
Using the Binomial Probability Function
Choosing 3 hourly employees at random, what is
the probability that 1 of them will leave the
company this year?
f x
n
x n x
p p
x n x
( )
!
!( )!
( )
( )
=

1
1 2
3!
(1) (0.1) (0.9) 3(.1)(.81) .243
1!(3 1)!
f = = =

Let: p = .10, n = 3, x = 1
Tree Diagram
Binomial Distribution
1
st
Worker 2
nd
Worker 3
rd
Worker x Prob.
Leaves
(.1)
Stays
(.9)
3
2
0
2
2
Leaves (.1)
Leaves (.1)
S (.9)
Stays (.9)
Stays (.9)
S (.9)
S (.9)
S (.9)
L (.1)
L (.1)
L (.1)
L (.1) .0010
.0090
.0090
.7290
.0090
1
1
.0810
.0810
.0810
1
Using Tables of Binomial Probabilities
n x .05 .10 .15 .20 .25 .30 .35 .40 .45 .50
3 0 .8574 .7290 .6141 .5120 .4219 .3430 .2746 .2160 .1664 .1250
1 .1354 .2430 .3251 .3840 .4219 .4410 .4436 .4320 .4084 .3750
2 .0071 .0270 .0574 .0960 .1406 .1890 .2389 .2880 .3341 .3750
3 .0001 .0010 .0034 .0080 .0156 .0270 .0429 .0640 .0911 .1250
p
Binomial Distribution
Binomial Distribution
(1 ) np p o =
E(x) = = np
Var(x) = o
2
= np(1 p)
Expected Value
Variance
Standard Deviation
Binomial Distribution
3(.1)(.9) .52 employees o = =
E(x) = = 3(.1) = .3 employees out of 3
Var(x) = o
2
= 3(.1)(.9) = .27
Expected Value
Variance
Standard Deviation
Binomial
Suppose that n independent experiments, or trials, are
performed, where n is a fixed number, and that each
experiment results in a success with probability p
and a failure with probability 1-p. The total
number of successes, X, is a binomial random
variable with parameters n and p.
We write: X ~ Bin (n, p) {reads: X is distributed
binomially with parameters n and p}
And the probability that X=r (i.e., that there are
exactly r successes) is:
A Poisson distributed random variable
is often useful in estimating the number
of occurrences over a specified interval
of time or space.

It is a discrete random variable that may
assume an infinite sequence of values
(x = 0, 1, 2, . . . ).

Poisson Distribution





Examples of a Poisson distributed random variable

The number of knotholes in 14 linear feet of
pine board.

The number of vehicles arriving at a toll booth in
one hour.






Poisson Distribution
Poisson Distribution

Two Properties of a Poisson Experiment

The probability of an occurrence is the same
for any two intervals of equal length.

The occurrence or nonoccurrence in any
interval is independent of the occurrence or
nonoccurrence in any other interval.


Poisson Probability Function
Poisson Distribution
f x
e
x
x
( )
!
=

where:
f(x) = probability of x occurrences in an interval
= mean number of occurrences in an interval
e = 2.71828
Poisson Distribution
MERCY
Example: Mercy Hospital
Patients arrive at the
emergency room of Mercy
Hospital at the average
rate of 6 per hour on
weekend evenings.
What is the
probability of 4 arrivals in
30 minutes on a weekend evening?
Poisson Distribution


Using the Poisson Probability Function
4 3
3 (2.71828)
(4) .1680
4!
f

= =
= 6/hour = 3/half-hour, x = 4
Poisson Distribution
Using Poisson Probability Tables

x 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0
0 .1225 .1108 .1003 .0907 .0821 .0743 .0672 .0608 .0550 .0498
1 .2572 .2438 .2306 .2177 .2052 .1931 .1815 .1703 .1596 .1494
2 .2700 .2681 .2652 .2613 .2565 .2510 .2450 .2384 .2314 .2240
3 .1890 .1966 .2033 .2090 .2138 .2176 .2205 .2225 .2237 .2240
4 .0992 .1082 .1169 .1254 .1336 .1414 .1488 .1557 .1622 .1680
5 .0417 .0476 .0538 .0602 ..0668 .0735 .0804 .0872 .0940 .1008
6 .0146 .0174 .0206 .0241 .0278 .0319 .0362 .0407 .0455 .0504
7 .0044 .0055 .0068 .0083 .0099 .0118 .0139 .0163 .0188 .0216
8 .0011 .0015 .0019 .0025 .0031 .0038 .0047 .0057 .0068 .0081
Poisson Distribution of Arrivals
Poisson Distribution
Poisson Probabilities
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Number of Arrivals in 30 Minutes
P
r
o
b
a
b
i
l
i
t
y

actually,
the sequence
continues:
11, 12,
Poisson Distribution
A property of the Poisson distribution is that
the mean and variance are equal.



= o
2
Variance for Number of Arrivals During
30-Minute Periods
= o
2
= 3

Hypergeometric Distribution
The hypergeometric distribution is closely related
to the binomial distribution.
However, for the hypergeometric distribution:






Trials are not independent, and
Probability of success changes from trial
to trial.
Hypergeometric Probability Function
Hypergeometric Distribution
|
|
.
|

\
|
|
|
.
|

\
|

|
|
.
|

\
|
=
n
N
x n
r N
x
r
x f ) ( for 0 < x < r
where: f(x) = probability of x successes in n trials
n = number of trials
N = number of elements in the population
r = number of elements in the population
labeled success
Hypergeometric Probability Function
Hypergeometric Distribution

( )
r N r
x n x
f x
N
n

| | | |
| |

\ . \ .
=
| |
|
\ .
for 0 < x < r
number of ways
n x failures can be selected
from a total of N r failures
in the population
number of ways
x successes can be selected
from a total of r successes
in the population
number of ways
a sample of size n can be selected
from a population of size N
Hypergeometric Distribution
Example: Neveready
Bob Neveready has removed two dead
batteries from a flashlight and inadvertently
mingled them with the two good batteries he
intended as replacements. The four batteries
look identical.
Bob now randomly selects two of the four
batteries. What is the probability he selects
the two good batteries?
Hypergeometric Distribution
Using the Hypergeometric Function
2 2 2! 2!
2 0 2!0! 0!2!
1
( ) .167
4 4!
6
2 2!2!
r N r
x n x
f x
N
n

| || | | || | | || |
| | | | | |

\ .\ . \ .\ . \ .\ .
= = = = =
| | | | | |
| | |
\ . \ . \ .
where:
x = 2 = number of good batteries selected
n = 2 = number of batteries selected
N = 4 = number of batteries in total
r = 2 = number of good batteries in total
Hypergeometric Distribution
( )
r
E x n
N

| |
= =
|
\ .
2
( ) 1
1
r r N n
Var x n
N N N
o

| || || |
= =
| | |

\ .\ .\ .
Mean
Variance
Hypergeometric Distribution
2
2 1
4
r
n
N

| | | |
= = =
| |
\ . \ .
2
2 2 4 2 1
2 1 .333
4 4 4 1 3
o

| || || |
= = =
| | |

\ .\ .\ .
Mean
Variance
Hypergeometric Distribution
Consider a hypergeometric distribution with n trials
and let p = (r/n) denote the probability of a success
on the first trial.
If the population size is large, the term (N n)/(N 1)
approaches 1.
The expected value and variance can be written
E(x) = np and Var(x) = np(1 p).
Note that these are the expressions for the expected
value and variance of a binomial distribution.
Hypergeometric Approximation
When the population size is large, a
hypergeometric distribution can be approximated
by a binomial distribution with n trials and
a probability of success p = (r/N).
The Normal Curve
The shape of the normal curve is often illustrated as a bell-
shaped curve.
The highest point on the normal curve is at the mean of the
distribution.
The normal curve is symmetric. Mean, Median, and Mode are
the same.
The standard deviation determines the width of the curve.
The total area under the curve is the same as any other
probability distribution is 1.
Probabilities for the normal random variable are given by areas
under the curve.




How do I Know Data is Normally Distributed?
Look at the histogram! Does it appear bell shaped?
Compute descriptive summary measuresare mean,
median, and mode same?
Do 2/3 of observations lie within 1 std. dev. of the
mean? Do 95% of observations lie within 2 std. dev.
of the mean?
Look at a normal probability plotis it approximately
linear?
Normal Probability Density Function
f x e
x
( )
( ) /
=

1
2
2
2
2
to
o
f x e
x
( )
( ) /
=

1
2
2
2
2
to
o
where
= mean
o = standard deviation
t = 3.14159
e = 2.71828

Standard Normal Probability Density Function
where
= 0
o = 1
t = 3.14159
e = 2.71828

The Standard Normal Distribution (Z)
All normal distributions can be converted into
the standard normal curve by subtracting the
mean and dividing by the standard deviation:



o

=
X
Z
Somebody calculated all the integrals for the standard
normal and put them in a table! So we can now use the
table.
The table will give this
probability
Given any positive value for z, the table will give us the
following probability
Given positive z
The probability that we find using the table is the probability
of having a standard normal variable between 0 and the given
positive z.
The Z value
Empirical Rule".
No matter what and o are,
- area between -o and +o is about 68%;
- area between -2o and +2o is about 95%;
- area between -3o and +3o is about 99.7%.

Almost all values fall within 3 standard
deviations.
Area under the Curve
Problem
If birth weights in a population are normally
distributed with a mean of 109 oz. and a
standard deviation of 13 oz.,
a. What is the chance of obtaining a birth
weight of 141 oz. or heavier when sampling
birth records at random?
b. What is the chance of obtaining a birth
weight of 120 or lighter?
Answer a.
What is the chance of obtaining a birth
weight of 141 oz. or heavier when sampling
birth records at random?



46 . 2
13
109 141
=

= Z
From the chart Z of 2.46 corresponds to a right tail (greater than)area of:
P(Z2.46) = 1-(.9931)= .0069 or .69 %
Answer b.
What is the chance of obtaining a birth
weight of 120 or lighter?

From the chart Z of .85 corresponds to a left tail area of:
P(Z.85) = .8023= 80.23%

85 .
13
109 120
=

= Z
Z=1.51
Z=1.51
What is the
area to the left
of Z=1.51 in a
standard
normal curve?
Area is
93.45%