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    To Forecasting: Business Forecasting by A. Reza Hoshmand, Second Edition Publisher: Taytor & Francis Group, 2010

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    This document provides an introduction to business forecasting. It discusses how the aim of business forecasting is to combine statistical analysis and domain knowledge to develop forecasts that help managers make decisions. Several types of forecasting methods are described, ranging from intuitive to quantitative. Qualitative models incorporate judgment, time-series models predict the future based on past data, and causal models use factors that influence what is being forecasted. The document also outlines eight steps to the forecasting process and provides examples of who uses business forecasting like marketing, finance, and government.

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    To Forecasting: Business Forecasting by A. Reza Hoshmand, Second Edition Publisher: Taytor & Francis Group, 2010

    Uploaded by

    sms
    145 views16 pages
    This document provides an introduction to business forecasting. It discusses how the aim of business forecasting is to combine statistical analysis and domain knowledge to develop forecasts that help managers make decisions. Several types of forecasting methods are described, ranging from intuitive to quantitative. Qualitative models incorporate judgment, time-series models predict the future based on past data, and causal models use factors that influence what is being forecasted. The document also outlines eight steps to the forecasting process and provides examples of who uses business forecasting like marketing, finance, and government.

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    This document provides an introduction to business forecasting. It discusses how the aim of business forecasting is to combine statistical analysis and domain knowledge to develop forecasts that help managers make decisions. Several types of forecasting methods are described, ranging from intuitive to quantitative. Qualitative models incorporate judgment, time-series models predict the future based on past data, and causal models use factors that influence what is being forecasted. The document also outlines eight steps to the forecasting process and provides examples of who uses business forecasting like marketing, finance, and government.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pptx, pdf, or txt
    145 views16 pages

    To Forecasting: Business Forecasting by A. Reza Hoshmand, Second Edition Publisher: Taytor & Francis Group, 2010

    Uploaded by

    sms
    This document provides an introduction to business forecasting. It discusses how the aim of business forecasting is to combine statistical analysis and domain knowledge to develop forecasts that help managers make decisions. Several types of forecasting methods are described, ranging from intuitive to quantitative. Qualitative models incorporate judgment, time-series models predict the future based on past data, and causal models use factors that influence what is being forecasted. The document also outlines eight steps to the forecasting process and provides examples of who uses business forecasting like marketing, finance, and government.

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    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pptx, pdf, or txt
    of 16

    INTRODUCTION

    TO FORECASTING
    Business Forecasting by
    A. Reza Hoshmand, Second Edition
    Publisher: Taytor & Francis Group, 2010
    Introduction
    Importance of Forecasting

    Introduction
    The aim of a business forecast is to combine
    statistical analyses and domain knowledge (not
    judgment) to develop acceptable forecasts.
    Advances in technology have revolutionized the
    way we process information and prepare
    business and economic forecasts.
    Forecasting methodologies have been in
    existence since the nineteenth century.
    They range from intuitive forecasting to highly
    sophisticated quantitative methods.
    objective of forecasting
    The objective of forecasting is to provide
    managers with information that will facilitate
    decision making.


    Who use business forcasting?

    1. Changes in economy influence enterprises
    2. Marketing (such as market share, trends in
    prices, sources of competition, and the
    demographics of the market)
    3. Finance and accounting (estimate its future
    levels of receivables, inventory, payables, and
    other corporate accounts).
    4. HR: decisions regarding the total number of
    employees a firm needs.
    number of workers in functional areas,
    nature of the workforce (part-time or full-time)
    trends in absenteeism and lateness, and
    productivity
    5. Government uses these forecasts to guide
    monetary and fiscal policy of the country.
    What Is Forecasting?
    It is the process of predicting a future event
    which underlying as the basis of all business
    decisions such as:
    Production
    Inventory
    Facilities
    Personnel.
    The Art and Science of Forecasting
    wide range of forecasting methodologies:
    from intuitive forecasting to highly
    sophisticated quantitative methods.
    The more complex the model, the more the
    assumptions have to be made in the model.


    Eight steps to forecasting
    1. Determine the use of the forecastwhat
    objective are we trying to obtain?
    2. Select the items or quantities that are to be
    forecasted
    3. Determine the time horizon of the forecast
    4. Select the forecasting model or models
    5. Gather the data needed to make the forecast
    6. Validate the forecasting model
    7. Make the forecast
    8. Implement the results
    Forecasting Methods
    Qualitative Models
    Qualitative models incorporate judgmental or
    subjective factors
    Useful when subjective factors are thought to be
    important or when accurate quantitative data is
    difficult to obtain
    Common qualitative techniques are
    Delphi method
    Jury of executive opinion
    Sales force composite
    Consumer market surveys

    Time-Series Models
    Time-series models attempt to predict the future
    based on the past
    Common time-series models are
    Moving average
    Exponential smoothing
    Trend projections
    Decomposition
    Regression analysis is used in trend projections
    and one type of decomposition model
    Causal Models
    Causal models use variables or factors that
    might influence the quantity being forecasted
    The objective is to build a model with the best
    statistical relationship between the variable
    being forecast and the independent variables
    Regression analysis is the most common
    technique used in causal modeling

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