Engineering Economy covers time value of money, economic equivalence, and cost estimation. Engineers must be able to incorporate economic analysis into their creative efforts. A proper economic analysis for selection and execution is a fundamental task of engineering.
Engineering Economy covers time value of money, economic equivalence, and cost estimation. Engineers must be able to incorporate economic analysis into their creative efforts. A proper economic analysis for selection and execution is a fundamental task of engineering.
Engineering Economy covers time value of money, economic equivalence, and cost estimation. Engineers must be able to incorporate economic analysis into their creative efforts. A proper economic analysis for selection and execution is a fundamental task of engineering.
Engineering Economy covers time value of money, economic equivalence, and cost estimation. Engineers must be able to incorporate economic analysis into their creative efforts. A proper economic analysis for selection and execution is a fundamental task of engineering.
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2012 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.
Y All Rights Reserved
1-1 Lecture slides to accompany Engineering Economy 7 th edition
Leland Blank Anthony Tarquin Chapter 1 Foundations Of Engineering Economy 2012 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All Rights Reserved 1-2 TOPIC OUTCOMES 1. Role in decision making 2. Study approach 3. Ethics and economics 4. Interest rate 5. Terms and symbols 6. Cash flows 7. Economic equivalence 8. Simple and compound interest 9. Minimum attractive rate of return 10. Spreadsheet functions 2012 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All Rights Reserved 1-3 Why Engineering Economy is Important to Engineers Engineers design and create Designing involves economic decisions Engineers must be able to incorporate economic analysis into their creative efforts Often engineers must select and implement from multiple alternatives Understanding and applying time value of money, economic equivalence, and cost estimation are vital for engineers A proper economic analysis for selection and execution is a fundamental task of engineering 2012 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All Rights Reserved 1-4 Time Value of Money (TVM) Description: TVM explains the change in the amount of money over time for funds owed by or owned by a corporation (or individual)
Corporate investments are expected to earn a return Investment involves money Money has a time value
The time value of money is the most important concept in engineering economy 2012 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All Rights Reserved 1-5 Engineering Economy Engineering Economy involves Formulating Estimating, and Evaluating expected economic outcomes of alternatives designed to accomplish a defined purpose Easy-to-use math techniques simplify the evaluation Estimates of economic outcomes can be deterministic or stochastic in nature
2012 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All Rights Reserved 1-6 General Steps for Decision Making Processes 1. Understand the problem define objectives 2. Collect relevant information 3. Define the set of feasible alternatives 4. Identify the criteria for decision making 5. Evaluate the alternatives and apply sensitivity analysis 6. Select the best alternative 7. Implement the alternative and monitor results 2012 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All Rights Reserved 1-7 Steps in an Engineering Economy Study Ethics Different Levels Universal morals or ethics Fundamental beliefs: stealing, lying, harming or murdering another are wrong Personal morals or ethics Beliefs that an individual has and maintains over time; how a universal moral is interpreted and used by each person Professional or engineering ethics Formal standard or code that guides a person in work activities and decision making
2012 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All Rights Reserved 1-8 Code of Ethics for Engineers All disciplines have a formal code of ethics. National Society of Professional Engineers (NSPE) maintains a code specifically for engineers; many engineering professional societies have their own code 2012 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All Rights Reserved 1-9 2012 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All Rights Reserved 1-10 Interest and Interest Rate Interest the manifestation of the time value of money Fee that one pays to use someone elses money Difference between an ending amount of money and a beginning amount of money
Interest = amount owed now principal
Interest rate Interest paid over a time period expressed as a percentage of principal
2012 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All Rights Reserved 1-11 Rate of Return Interest earned over a period of time is expressed as a percentage of the original amount (principal)
interest accrued per time unit Rate of return (%) = x 100% original amount Borrowers perspective interest rate paid Lenders or investors perspective rate of return earned Interest paid Interest earned 2012 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All Rights Reserved 1-12 Interest rate Rate of return 2012 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All Rights Reserved 1-13 Commonly used Symbols t = time, usually in periods such as years or months P = value or amount of money at a time t designated as present or time 0 F = value or amount of money at some future time, such as at t = n periods in the future A = series of consecutive, equal, end-of-period amounts of money n = number of interest periods; years, months i = interest rate or rate of return per time period; percent per year or month 2012 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All Rights Reserved 1-14 Cash Flows: Terms Cash Inflows Revenues (R), receipts, incomes, savings generated by projects and activities that flow in. Plus sign used Cash Outflows Disbursements (D), costs, expenses, taxes caused by projects and activities that flow out. Minus sign used Net Cash Flow (NCF) for each time period: NCF = cash inflows cash outflows = R D End-of-period assumption: Funds flow at the end of a given interest period Cash Flows: Estimating Point estimate A single-value estimate of a cash flow element of an alternative Cash inflow: Income = $150,000 per month
Range estimate Min and max values that estimate the cash flow Cash outflow: Cost is between $2.5 M and $3.2 M
Point estimates are commonly used; however, range estimates with probabilities attached provide a better understanding of variability of economic parameters used to make decisions 2012 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All Rights Reserved 1-15 2012 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All Rights Reserved 1-16 Cash Flow Diagrams What a typical cash flow diagram might look like
0 1 2 n - 1 n Draw a time line One time period 0 1 2 n-1 n Show the cash flows (to approximate scale) Cash flows are shown as directed arrows: + (up) for inflow - (down) for outflow Always assume end-of-period cash flows Time F = $100 P = $-80 Cash Flow Diagram Example 2012 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All Rights Reserved 1-17 Plot observed cash flows over last 8 years and estimated sale next year for $150. Show present worth (P) arrow at present time, t = 0 Economic Equivalence Definition: Combination of interest rate (rate of return) and time value of money to determine different amounts of money at different points in time that are economically equivalent
How it works: Use rate i and time t in upcoming relations to move money (values of P, F and A) between time points t = 0, 1, , n to make them equivalent (not equal) at the rate i
2012 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All Rights Reserved 1-18 2012 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All Rights Reserved 1-19 Example of Equivalence Different sums of money at different times may be equal in economic value at a given rate 0 1 $100 now $110 Rate of return = 10% per year $100 now is economically equivalent to $110 one year from now, if the $100 is invested at a rate of 10% per year. Year 2012 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All Rights Reserved 1-20 Simple and Compound Interest Simple Interest Interest is calculated using principal only Interest = (principal)(number of periods)(interest rate) I = Pni
Example: $100,000 lent for 3 years at simple i = 10% per year. What is repayment after 3 years?
Interest = 100,000(3)(0.10) = $30,000
Total due = 100,000 + 30,000 = $130,000 Simple and Compound Interest Compound Interest Interest is based on principal plus all accrued interest That is, interest compounds over time
Interest = (principal + all accrued interest) (interest rate)
Interest for time period t is
2012 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All Rights Reserved 1-21 Compound Interest Example Example: $100,000 lent for 3 years at i = 10% per year compounded. What is repayment after 3 years? Interest, year 1: I 1 = 100,000(0.10) = $10,000 Total due, year 1: T 1 = 100,000 + 10,000 = $110,000
Interest, year 2: I 2 = 110,000(0.10) = $11,000 Total due, year 2: T 2 = 110,000 + 11,000 = $121,000
Interest, year 3: I 3 = 121,000(0.10) = $12,100 Total due, year 3: T 3 = 121,000 + 12,100 = $133,100
Compounded: $133,100 Simple: $130,000
2012 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All Rights Reserved 1-22 2012 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All Rights Reserved 1-23 Minimum Attractive Rate of Return MARR is a reasonable rate of return (percent) established for evaluating and selecting alternatives An investment is justified economically if it is expected to return at least the MARR Also termed hurdle rate, benchmark rate and cutoff rate 2012 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All Rights Reserved 1-24 MARR Characteristics MARR is established by the financial managers of the firm MARR is fundamentally connected to the cost of capital Both types of capital financing are used to determine the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) and the MARR MARR usually considers the risk inherent to a project
2012 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All Rights Reserved 1-25 Types of Financing
Equity Financing Funds either from retained earnings, new stock issues, or owners infusion of money. Debt Financing Borrowed funds from outside sources loans, bonds, mortgages, venture capital pools, etc. Interest is paid to the lender on these funds For an economically justified project ROR MARR > WACC EXAMPLE of WACC If you wish to buy a car by paying 40% using your savings that earns 10% per year and another 60% by using credit card at 18% per year. What is your weighted average cost of capital (WACC)? If your MARR=15% and your ROR=18%, would you proceed with the purchase? WACC=0.4 (10) + 0.6(18) = 14.8% per year Since WACC<MARR so proceed with the purchase 2012 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All Rights Reserved 1-26 Opportunity Cost Definition: Largest rate of return of all projects not accepted (forgone) due to a lack of capital funds If no MARR is set, the ROR of the first project not undertaken establishes the opportunity cost
Example: Assume MARR = 10%. Project A, not funded due to lack of funds, is projected to have ROR A = 13%. Project B has ROR B = 15% and is funded because it costs less than A Opportunity cost is 13%, i.e., the opportunity to make an additional 13% is forgone by not funding project A 2012 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All Rights Reserved 1-27 2012 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All Rights Reserved 1-28 Introduction to Spreadsheet Functions Excel financial functions
Example: Estimates are P = $5000 n = 5 years i = 5% per year Find A in $ per year Function and display: = PMT(5%, 5, 5000) displays A = $1154.87 2012 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All Rights Reserved 1-29 Chapter Summary Engineering Economy fundamentals Time value of money Economic equivalence Introduction to capital funding and MARR Spreadsheet functions Interest rate and rate of return Simple and compound interest Cash flow estimation Cash flow diagrams End-of-period assumption Net cash flow Perspectives taken for cash flow estimation Ethics Universal morals and personal morals Professional and engineering ethics (Code of Ethics)
REVIEW QUESTIONS 1.The concept that different sums of money at different points in time can be said to be equal to each other is known as: A. Evaluation criterion B. Equivalence C. Cash flow D. Intangible factors
2012 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All Rights Reserved 1-30 REVIEW QUESTIONS 2.The evaluation criterion that is usually used in an economic analysis is: A. Time to completion B. Technical feasibility C. Sustainability D. Financial units (dollars or other currency) 2012 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All Rights Reserved 1-31 REVIEW QUESTIONS 3. All of the following are examples of each cash flows, except: A. Asset salvage value B. Income taxes C. Operating cost of assets D. First cost of asset 2012 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All Rights Reserved 1-32 REVIEW QUESTIONS 4. In most engineering economy studies, the best alternative is the one that: A. Will last the longest time B. Is most politically correct C. Is easiest to implement D. Has the lowest cost 2012 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All Rights Reserved 1-33 REVIEW QUESTIONS 5.All of the following are examples of equity financing, except: A. Mortgage B. Money from savings C. Cash on hand D. Retained earnings 2012 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All Rights Reserved 1-34 REVIEW QUESTIONS 6.At an interest rate of 10% per year, the equivalent amount of $10,000 one year ago is closest to: A. $8264 B.$9091 C.$11,000 D.$12,000 2012 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All Rights Reserved 1-35 REVIEW QUESTIONS 7.Assume that you and your best friend each have $1000 to invest. You invest your money in a fund that pays 10% per year compound interest. Your friend invests her money at a bank that pays 10% per year simple interest. At the end of 1 year, the difference in the total amount for each of you is: A. You have $10 more than she does B. You have $100 more than she does C. You both have the same amount of money C. She has $10 more than you do
2012 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All Rights Reserved 1-36 REVIEW QUESTIONS 8.The time it would take for a given sum of money to double at 4% per year simple interest is closest to: A. 30 years B. 25 years C. 20 years D. 10 years 2012 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All Rights Reserved 1-37 REVIEW QUESTIONS
9.To finance a new project costing $30 million, a company borrowed $21 million at 16% per year interest and used retained earnings valued at 12% per year for the remainder of the investment. The companys weighted average cost of capital for the project was closest to: A.12.5% B.13.6% C.14.8% D.15.6% 2012 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All Rights Reserved 1-38 REVIEW QUESTIONS 10.Amounts of $1000 1 year ago and $1345.60 1 year hence are equivalent at what compound interest per year? A.12.5% per year B.14.8% per year C.17.2% per year D. None of the above 2012 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All Rights Reserved 1-39