Project Management - CPM/PERT

Abu Bashar

What exactly is a project?

PM 1 Im in charge of the construction of a retail development in the centre of a large town. There are 26 retail units and a super market in the complex. My main responsibilities are to co-ordinate the work of the various contractors to ensure that the project is completed to specification, within budget and on time. PM 2 I am directing a team of research scientists. We are running trials on a new analgesic drug on behalf of a pharmaceutical company. It is my responsibility to design the experiments and make sure that proper scientific and legal procedures are followed, so that our results can be subjected to independent statistical analysis. PM 3- The international aid agency which employs me is sending me to New Delhi to organize the introduction of multimedia resources at a teachers training college. My role is quite complex. I have to make sure that appropriate resources are purchased- and in some cases developed within the college. I also have to encourage the acceptance of these 2 resources by lecturers and students within the college.

PM 1 Im in charge of the construction of a retail development in the centre of a large town. There are 26 retail units and a super market in the complex. My main responsibilities are to co-ordinate the work of the various contractors to ensure that the project is completed to specification, within budget and on time. PM 2 I am directing a team of research scientists. We are running trials on a new analgesic drug on behalf of a pharmaceutical company. It is my responsibility to design the experiments and make sure that proper scientific and legal procedures are followed, so that our results can be subjected to independent statistical analysis. PM 3- The international aid agency which employs me is sending me to New Delhi to organize the introduction of multimedia resources at a teachers training college. My role is quite complex. I have to make sure that appropriate resources are purchased- and in some cases developed within the college. I also have to encourage the acceptance of these resources by lecturers and students within the college. Project is not defined by the type of outcome it is set up to achieve
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Project
A project is a temporary endeavour involving a connected sequence of activities and a range of resources, which is designed to achieve a specific and unique outcome and which operates within time, cost and quality constraints and which is often used to introduce change.

Characteristic of a project
A unique, one-time operational activity or effort Requires the completion of a large number of interrelated activities Established to achieve specific objective Resources, such as time and/or money, are limited Typically has its own management structure Need leadership

Examples
constructing houses, factories, shopping malls, athletic stadiums or arenas developing military weapons systems, aircrafts, new ships launching satellite systems constructing oil pipelines developing and implementing new computer systems planning concert, football games, or basketball tournaments introducing new products into market
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What is project management

The application of a collection of tools and techniques to direct the use of diverse resources towards the accomplishment of a unique, complex, one time task within time, cost and quality constraints. Its origins lie in World War II, when the military authorities used the techniques of operational research to plan the optimum use of resources. One of these techniques was the use of networks to represent a system of related activities

Project Management Process

Project planning Project scheduling Project control Project team made up of individuals from various areas and departments within a company Matrix organization a team structure with members from functional areas, depending on skills required Project Manager most important member of project team Scope statement a document that provides an understanding, justification, and expected result of a project Statement of work written description of objectives of a project Organizational Breakdown Structure a chart that shows which organizational units are responsible for work items Responsibility Assignment Matrix 7 shows who is responsible for work in a project

Project Scheduling and Control Techniques

Critical Path Method (CPM) Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)

History of CPM/PERT
Critical Path Method (CPM)
E I Du Pont de Nemours & Co. (1957) for construction of new chemical plant and maintenance shut-down Deterministic task times Activity-on-node network construction Repetitive nature of jobs

Project Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)

U S Navy (1958) for the POLARIS missile program Multiple task time estimates (probabilistic nature) Activity-on-arrow network construction Non-repetitive jobs (R & D work)
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 Network analysis is the general name given to certain specific techniques which can be used for the planning, management and control of projects
Use of nodes and arrows Arrows An arrow leads from tail to head directionally Indicate ACTIVITY, a time consuming effort that is required to perform a part of the work. Nodes A node is represented by a circle - Indicate EVENT, a point in time where one or more activities start and/or finish. Activity A task or a certain amount of work required in the project Requires time to complete Represented by an arrow Dummy Activity Indicates only precedence relationships 10 Does not require any time of effort

Project Network

Project Network
Event Signals the beginning or ending of an activity Designates a point in time Represented by a circle (node) Network Shows the sequential relationships among activities using nodes and arrows
Activity-on-node (AON) nodes represent activities, and arrows show precedence relationships

Activity-on-arrow (AOA)
arrows represent activities and nodes are events for points in time

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AOA Project Network for House

Lay foundation

3
2 0

Dummy Build house 3 Finish work 1

3
Design house and obtain financing

1
Order and receive materials

4
Select paint

6
1
Select carpet

AON Project Network for House

Lay foundations Build house

2 2 Start 1 3 3 1 5 1

4 3

Finish work

7 1 6 1
Select carpet
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Design house and obtain financing

Order and receive darla/smbs/vit Select paint materials

Situations in network diagram

A

B
A must finish before either B or C can start C

A
C B A B A both A and B must finish before C can start

C
D

both A and C must finish before either of B or D can start

B
Dummy

A must finish before B can start both A and C must finish before D can start
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Concurrent Activities
Lay foundation

3
Lay foundation
Dummy 2 0

3 2

1
Order material

Order material

(a) Incorrect precedence relationship

(b) Correct precedence relationship

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Network example
Illustration of network analysis of a minor redesign of a product and its associated packaging. The key question is: How long will it take to complete this project ?

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For clarity, this list is kept to a minimum by specifying only immediate relationships, that is relationships involving activities that "occur near to each other in time".

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Questions to prepare activity network

Is this a Start Activity? Is this a Finish Activity? What Activity Precedes this? What Activity Follows this? What Activity is Concurrent with this?

darla/smbs/vit

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CPM calculation
Path
A connected sequence of activities leading from the starting event to the ending event

Critical Path
The longest path (time); determines the project duration

Critical Activities
All of the activities that make up the critical path

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Forward Pass
Earliest Start Time (ES) earliest time an activity can start ES = maximum EF of immediate predecessors Earliest finish time (EF) earliest time an activity can finish earliest start time plus activity time EF= ES + t

Backward Pass

Latest Start Time (LS) Latest time an activity can start without delaying critical path time LS= LF - t Latest finish time (LF) latest time an activity can be completed without delaying critical path time LS = minimum LS of immediate predecessors
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CPM analysis
Draw the CPM network Analyze the paths through the network Determine the float for each activity Compute the activitys float float = LS - ES = LF - EF Float is the maximum amount of time that this activity can be delay in its completion before it becomes a critical activity, i.e., delays completion of the project Find the critical path is that the sequence of activities and events where there is no slack i.e.. Zero slack Longest path through a network Find the project duration is minimum project completion time
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CPM Example:
CPM Network f, 15 a, 6 g, 17 i, 6 h, 9

b, 8
d, 13 c, 5 e, 9
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j, 12

CPM Example
ES and EF Times
f, 15 g, 17 i, 6

a, 6 0 6

h, 9

b, 8
0 8 c, 5 0 5 e, 9
22

d, 13

j, 12

CPM Example
ES and EF Times
a, 6 0 6 f, 15 6 21 g, 17 6 23 i, 6

h, 9

b, 8
0 8 c, 5 0 5 d, 13 8 21 e, 9 5 14
23

j, 12

CPM Example
ES and EF Times
a, 6 0 6 f, 15 6 21 g, 17 6 23 i, 6 23 29

h, 9 21 30

b, 8
0 8 c, 5 0 5 d, 13 8 21 e, 9 5 14 j, 12 21 33 Projects EF = 33
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CPM Example
LS and LF Times
a, 6 0 6 f, 15 6 21 g, 17 6 23 i, 6 23 29 27 33 h, 9 21 30 24 33

b, 8 0 8
c, 5 0 5

d, 13 8 21 e, 9 5 14

j, 12 21 33 21 33

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CPM Example
LS and LF Times
f, 15 6 21 18 24 g, 17 6 23 10 27 d, 13 8 21 8 21 e, 9 5 14 12 21

a, 6 0 6 4 10 b, 8 0 8 0 8 c, 5 0 5 7 12

i, 6 23 29 27 33

h, 9 21 30 24 33

j, 12 21 33 21 33

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CPM Example
Float
f, 15 3 6 21 9 24 g, 17 4 6 23 10 27 d, 13 0 8 21 8 21 e, 9 7 5 14 12 21 h, 9 3 21 30 24 33

a, 6 3 0 6 3 9 b, 8 0 0 8 0 8 c, 5 7 0 5 7 12

i, 6 23 29 4 27 33

j, 12 0 21 33 21 33

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CPM Example
Critical Path
f, 15 g, 17 i, 6

a, 6

h, 9

b, 8
d, 13 c, 5 e, 9
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j, 12

PERT
PERT is based on the assumption that an activitys duration follows a probability distribution instead of being a single value Three time estimates are required to compute the parameters of an activitys duration distribution: pessimistic time (tp ) - the time the activity would take if things did not go well most likely time (tm ) - the consensus best estimate of the activitys duration optimistic time (to ) - the time the activity would take if things did go well Mean (expected time): te =

tp + 4 tm + t o
6
2

Variance: Vt darla/smbs/vit

=2

tp - to
6
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PERT analysis
Draw the network. Analyze the paths through the network and find the critical path. The length of the critical path is the mean of the project duration probability distribution which is assumed to be normal The standard deviation of the project duration probability distribution is computed by adding the variances of the critical activities (all of the activities that make up the critical path) and taking the square root of that sum Probability computations can now be made using the normal distribution table.

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Probability computation
Determine probability that project is completed within specified time x- Z=

where = tp = project mean time

= project standard mean time x = (proposed ) specified time

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Normal Distribution of Project Time

Probability

= tp

Time
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PERT Example
Immed. Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic Activity Predec. Time (Hr.) Time (Hr.) Time (Hr.) A -4 6 8 B -1 4.5 5 C A 3 3 3 D A 4 5 6 E A 0.5 1 1.5 F B,C 3 4 5 G B,C 1 1.5 5 H E,F 5 6 7 I E,F 2 5 8 J D,H 2.5 2.75 4.5 33 K G,I 3 5 7

PERT Example PERT Network

D

C B F G I K

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PERT Example
Activity
A B C D E F G H I J K

Expected Time
6 4 3 5 1 4 2 6 5 3 5

Variance
4/9 4/9 0 1/9 1/36 1/9 4/9 1/9 1 1/9 4/9
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PERT Example
Activity ES
A B C D E F G H I J K 0 0 6 6 6 9 9 13 13 19 18

EF
6 4 9 11 7 13 11 19 18 22 23

LS
0 5 6 15 12 9 16 14 13 20 18

LF
6 9 9 20 13 13 18 20 18 23 23

Slack
0 *critical 5 0* 9 6 0* 7 1 0* 1 0*
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PERT Example Vpath = VA + VC + VF + VI + VK = 4/9 + 0 + 1/9 + 1 + 4/9 = 2 path = 1.414 z = (24 - 23)/(24-23)/1.414 = .71 From the Standard Normal Distribution table: P(z < .71) = .5 + .2612 = .7612
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Project Crashing
Crashing reducing project time by expending additional resources Crash time an amount of time an activity is reduced Crash cost cost of reducing activity time Goal reduce project duration at minimum cost

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Activity crashing

Crash cost

Crashing activity Slope = crash cost per unit time Normal Activity

Normal cost

Normal time
Crash time Activity time
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 Crashing costs increase as project duration decreases Indirect costs increase as project duration increases Reduce project length as long as crashing costs are less than indirect costs

Time-Cost Relationship

Time-Cost Tradeoff
Min total cost = optimal project time Total project cost Indirect cost

Direct cost time

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Project Crashing example

2 8 1
12

4
12

7 4 3 4

5 4

6 4

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Time Cost data

Activity Normal time 1 12 2 8 3 4 4 12 5 4 6 4 7 4 Normal cost Rs 3000 2000 4000 50000 500 500 1500 75000 Crash time 7 5 3 9 1 1 3 Crash cost Rs 5000 3500 7000 71000 1100 1100 22000 110700 Allowable crash time 5 3 1 3 3 3 1 slope
400 500 3000 7000 200 200 7000

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R500
2 8 1
12

R7000 4
12

Project duration = 36
R700 7 4 6 4 R200

From..

R400

3 4 R3000

5 4 R200

R500 2 8

R7000 4
12

R700

To.. Project duration = 31

1
7

7 4
6 4 R200
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R400

3 4

5 4 R200

Additional cost = R2000

R3000

Benefits of CPM/PERT
Useful at many stages of project management Mathematically simple Give critical path and slack time Provide project documentation Useful in monitoring costs

CPM/PERT can answer the following important questions:

How long will the entire project take to be completed? What are the risks involved? Which are the critical activities or tasks in the project which could delay the entire project if they were not completed on time? Is the project on schedule, behind schedule or ahead of schedule? If the project has to be finished earlier than planned, what is the best way to do this at the least cost? 44

Limitations to CPM/PERT
Clearly defined, independent and stable activities Specified precedence relationships Over emphasis on critical paths Deterministic CPM model Activity time estimates are subjective and depend on judgment PERT assumes a beta distribution for these time estimates, but the actual distribution may be different PERT consistently underestimates the expected project completion time due to alternate paths becoming critical

To overcome the limitation, Monte Carlo simulations can be performed on the network to eliminate the optimistic bias
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Computer Software for Project Management

Microsoft Project (Microsoft Corp.) MacProject (Claris Corp.) PowerProject (ASTA Development Inc.) Primavera Project Planner (Primavera) Project Scheduler (Scitor Corp.) Project Workbench (ABT Corp.)

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Practice Example
A social project manager is faced with a project with the following activities: Activity Description
Social work team to live in village

Duration
5w

Social research team to do survey

Analyse results of survey Establish mother & child health program

12w
5w 14w

Establish rural credit programme

Carry out immunization of under fives

15w
4w

Draw network diagram and show the critical path. Calculate project duration.

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Practice problem
Activity 1-2 1-3 3-4 2-4 3-5 4-5 Description Social work team to live in village Social research team to do survey Analyse results of survey Establish mother & child health program Establish rural credit programme Carry out immunization of under fives
4 5 3
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Duration 5w 12w 5w 14w 15w 4w

2 1

All The best

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