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Military Decision Making Process

comparison between Military decision making process and project planning methodology The military decision-making process (MDMP) is a single, established, and proven analytical process. (See Figure 5-1, page 5-2.) The MDMP is an adaptation of the Army’s analytical approach to problemsolving. The MDMP is a tool that assists the commander and staff in developing estimates and a plan. While the formal problem-solving process described in this chapter may start with the receipt of a mission, and has as its goal the production of an order, the analytical aspects of the MDMP continue at all levels during operations. TheMDMPhelps the commander and his staff examine a battlefield situation and reach logical decisions. The process helps them apply thoroughness, clarity, sound judgment, logic, and professional knowledge to reach a decision. The full MDMP is a detailed, deliberate, sequential, and time-consuming process used when adequate planning time and sufficient staff support are available to thoroughly examine numerous friendly and enemy courses of action (COAs). This typically occurs when developing the commander’s estimate and operation plans (OPLANs), when planning for an entirely new mission, during extended operations, and during staff training designed specifically to teach the MDMP. The MDMP is the foundation on which planning in a time-constrained environment is based. The products created during the full MDMP can and should be used during subsequent planning sessions when time may not be available for a thorough relook, but where existing METT-T factors have not changed substantially. (See page 5-27 for a discussion of decision making in a timeconstrained environment.)

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593 views38 pages

Military Decision Making Process

comparison between Military decision making process and project planning methodology The military decision-making process (MDMP) is a single, established, and proven analytical process. (See Figure 5-1, page 5-2.) The MDMP is an adaptation of the Army’s analytical approach to problemsolving. The MDMP is a tool that assists the commander and staff in developing estimates and a plan. While the formal problem-solving process described in this chapter may start with the receipt of a mission, and has as its goal the production of an order, the analytical aspects of the MDMP continue at all levels during operations. TheMDMPhelps the commander and his staff examine a battlefield situation and reach logical decisions. The process helps them apply thoroughness, clarity, sound judgment, logic, and professional knowledge to reach a decision. The full MDMP is a detailed, deliberate, sequential, and time-consuming process used when adequate planning time and sufficient staff support are available to thoroughly examine numerous friendly and enemy courses of action (COAs). This typically occurs when developing the commander’s estimate and operation plans (OPLANs), when planning for an entirely new mission, during extended operations, and during staff training designed specifically to teach the MDMP. The MDMP is the foundation on which planning in a time-constrained environment is based. The products created during the full MDMP can and should be used during subsequent planning sessions when time may not be available for a thorough relook, but where existing METT-T factors have not changed substantially. (See page 5-27 for a discussion of decision making in a timeconstrained environment.)

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Ashish viswanath prakash
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Military Project Planning & scheduling process The art of decision making in a time-constrained environment

Similarities
Project planning origin US DOD Iterative in nature, allow for the introduction of changes to the original plan Assign tasks and responsibilities Concept of managing the scope of the operation or project. The project management plans sub-plans, such as the communications management plan, risk management plan, and configuration management plan, are not unlike the annexes, tabs, and appendixes produced to supplement a military operations order Project managers - the executive officer is charged with similar duties.

How it differs ??
Time constraints Unknown risks Change in scope dynamic Real time decision making Mistakes - Fatal Irreversibility

Challenges
Reducing duration of decision making process Interoperability collaborative operations tailoring and time phasing of force deployment in crisis situations real-time requirement Increasingly complex multinational environment Joint decision making coordinating remotely located planners time-varying uncertain information from multiple sources Absence of universal model- wider operational disparity

Mission planning process


Trigger

Mission analysis

Courses of action

Approval

Characteristics of a good mission plan


Quick response Decisive action Flexibility to adapt to the exogenous events & changing situations

Planning hierarchy
Strategic

Operational

Tactical

Strategic
National or alliance security objectives and develops and uses national resources to accomplish those objectives Define limits and assess risks for the use of military and other instruments of power Formal structured People involved NSA,PMO, President, military chiefs

Operational
level at which campaigns and major operations are planned, conducted and sustained to accomplish strategic objectives within theatres or areas of operations. establishing operational objectives needed to accomplish the strategic objectives. Formal structured

Tactical
level at which battles and engagements are planned and executed to accomplish military objectives assigned to tactical units dynamic multi-dimensional process where the decision-maker must execute the decision process within the timeframe of the enemy's decision cycle

Categories of planning

Deliberate planning

Crisis action planning

Deliberate planning
The deliberate planning process is not generally subject to the immediate time lines or prevailing threats. Proactive plans It develops operation plans for contingencies and for later execution

Crisis action planning


needed when the degree of urgency of the crisis demands an accelerated operation planning process significant factor - time. characterized by quick response, decisive action, and flexibility to adapt to the contingency situation Can be interrelated with deliberate plan

Planning process
Strategic and operational levels of planning structured formal processes. In contrast, the tactical level is not a well-known structured process output of the planning process is an Op O (Operation Order)

1
Initiation - receiving mission
Starts with the reception, by the chief of defense staff (CDS), of a political direction from the government. Designation and notification of the planning staff Assembly of all relevant material

2
Orientation- mission analysis
Commander orients the staff towards requirements of the initiated operation The mission is developed and analyzed. This mission analysis - brainstorming Determines the nature of the problem and confirms the results to be achieved.

3
Course of Action development
commander's planning guidance developed in the previous step is used as a framework by the planning staff to develop the initial COAs. Factors:
theatre situation opposing forces military capabilities time and space assessment of the tasks.

Different COAs are compared in order to determine the most effective one.

Steps
1. Analyze Relative Combat Power - resources and leadership we have to
accomplish our goal

2. 3. 4. 5. 6.

Generate options - brainstorming Array Initial Forces- similar to WBS- creating responsibility matrix Develop the Scheme of Maneuver how? - graphical Assign Headquarters - who reports to whom Prepare COA Statements and sketches

COA Development Criteria


Suitability
Feasibility Acceptability Distinguishability Completeness

4
Plan development
Expansion or alteration are considered at this step, To convert a developed COA into: Contingency operations (COP) plan in the case of the deliberate planning Operations order (OP O) plan in the case of crisis action planning.

COP PLAN (contingency operation plan)


The COP plans are prepared when contingency has important interest (national security) A COP plan is a complete and detailed operation plan that includes:
A full description of the concept of the operations Identification of specific forces and specific resources necessary to implement the plan Estimates of the forces movement in the theatre

Functional plan

OP O (operation order)
An OP O is the plan where details of the mission are filled in to include all supporting forces and activities. Presented in the form of a directive issued by a commander to the staff or subordinate commanders

5
Plan review- war game
Reviewed by evaluating their corresponding COAs through exercises, war gaming or other techniques such as logistics flow modeling. Choice of review method War-gaming is an iterative process During the war game, each COAs strengths and weaknesses are discovered, unforeseen events are exposed, and problems are identified War-gaming is comparable to project risk management

Steps in war game


1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. Gather the tools List all friendly forces. List assumptions. List known critical events and decision points Determine evaluation criteria. Select the war-gaming method. Select a method to record and display results War game the battle and assess the results.

Models/paradigms used for planning


War game
Germany used war games to plan its successful invasion of France in 1940. Japan used war games to plan its attack on Pearl Harbor, Hawaii in 1941

Demerits :
effectiveness subject to the skills of the commander and the individual staff members computer assisted simulation models

Decision theoretic models Artificial intelligence models Other methods: Game theory Petri network Data mining BI tools

6
Comparison ,Approval and Orders Production.
Coas are compared. Presented to the commander for approval Does not meet the stated intent, can be done better, or is modified, the staff will return to the war-gaming process and begin again. Iterative Military operations order -base order + additional annexes, appendixes, and tabs that provide additional detail.

Case : Mumbai terror attack NSG ops


Intelligence Failures Gaps in Coastal Surveillance Inadequate Target Hardening. Incomplete Execution of Response Protocols Response Timing Problems
Local contingents of the army -5 hrs NSG 10hrs

Inadequate Counterterrorism Training and Equipment for the Local Police Flawed Hostage-Rescue Plan. Poor Strategic Communications and Information Management

Operation Entebbe Israel

References:
Boukhtouta A, A. Bedrouni, J. Berger, F. Bouak, A. Guitouni ;Survey of Military Planning Systems; Defence Research and Development journal Canada DAN STOBER ; Military Orders Process vs. Project Management Methodology, (2013);http://blog.globalknowledge.com/government/7952/#sthash.E9T4NNbZ.dpuf Angel Rabasa et al;The Lessons of Mumbai;2009; ISBN/EAN: 9780833046673 Zeev Maoz; The Decision to Raid Entebbe: Decision Analysis Applied to Crisis Behavior; The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 25, No. 4. (Dec., 1981), pp. 677-707.

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