Probability

Chapter-3
 What should you know to understand
the Probability ?
• Addition ,
• Subtraction ,
• Multiplication ,
• Division, and
• Values between 0 and 1
 What is the chance that
the sales will decrease if,
the price is increased ?
What is the chance that
Indians will not live after
the age of 65 years ?
What is the likelihood that
the driving will be safe on
Indian roads ?
 Probability
• What are the chances that sales
decrease if we increase the price ?
• Likelihoo • What is the likelihood the new
method will result in high
d productivity ?
• What are the odds in favour of a new
• Chance investment being profitable ?
• What is the likelihood the driving will
• Possibilit be safe on Indian roads ?

y • What are the chances that Indian

will not live after 65 years of age ?

• Odds • What are the chances that TV serials

telecasted between 8 & 9 P.mwill be
seen by the family ?
 Probability
• What are the chances that sales
decrease if we increase the
• Probability price ?
• What is the likelihood the new method
is the high
will result in

chance that productivity ?

an event • What are the odds in favour of a new
investment being profitable ?

will occur • driving

What is the likelihood the
will be safe on
Indian roads ?
• What are the chances that

Indians will not

live after 65 years
 Probability

• Probability • Probability values are

is the assigned on a scale
from 0 to 1
Likelihood
that an Or
event will • Measured in
percentage
occur
 Probability

0 0. 1
5

Probabil
Uncert
ity Certain
50:50
ain Chance
 0 Probability-Quiz 1

Unlikely Likel
Uncert 50:50 y Certai
ain Chanc n
• Match the following with the above Chances
2. Sun will arise in the east tomorrow
3. It will rain today
4. Tomorrow We can travel by Metro Train in Bangalore
5. Every Monday morning there will be heavy traffic on
the Bangalore Road
6. Everybody will die at the age of 85
 Probability- Terminology
• Experiment: • Randomly Selecting
An activity that takes a Student based on
place the sex
• Outcomes: • Possible outcomes
One of the possible 3. Boy
results of an experiment.
4. Girl
The experiment will
result in exactly one
outcome. Randomly Selecting a Student
• Events: who is a boy
Specifically defined
outcome that is of particular
interest to us
 Measuring Probability
P(Event) = Number of ways the
event could occur

Experiment:
If we roll
Total number of outcomes
the die once 1) what is the probability of 5 showing
Step-1: Find the Total number ?ofor
Roll a die2)which
what is the chance that
possible the number 5 will
outcome
experiment
be
of the
shown ? or
has six sides with
3) How much percentage of an experiment will
each side showing
result in number 5 ? we may get either the
one number from 1 number 1 or 2 or 3 or 4 or 5 or
Interpretation:
to 6 and with each Since the probability
number 6 on rolling the die.
side showing
calculated nowa is 0.17 Therefore total number of possible
, theoretically
outcomes are 6. we
different number.
can say that , 17% of the times, the result
Event: Step-2: Find the number of ways the
of an experiment
If we define an
(of Rolling acould
event dieoccur
) will be
number
event as 5 theand the balance 83% of the
number 5 showing,
times the experimentnumber On rolling the die the
will result
5 will in other
occur in
what
Ifnumbers.
we roll the is
diethe
only one way
once 1) what is the probability of 5 showing ? or
probability of this
2) what is the chance that the number 5 will be
event
shown ? orhappening ? Step-3: Substitute the values in the
formula of an experiment will
3) How much percentage
 Measuring Probability- Quiz
P(Event) = Number of ways the
Experiment: event could occur

Roll a die which has Total number of outcomes

six
Setsides with
of all theeach side outcomes of an
possible
showing
experimentone number
is called • P(NumberSample1) = 1/6
Probability
from ofand
1 to 6 all the outcomes of an
with
Space
experiment =1.
=0.167
Sample
each sidespace for this
showing a rolling die experiment
P(All) = number.
isdifferent
: S= [1,2,3,4,5,6] • P(Number 2) = 1/6
Complement of an Set of=0.167
all the possible
0.167+0.167+0.167+0.167+0.167+0.1
Event:
outcomes of an experiment is called
67
All the
Sample
1. whatSpace
is the
• P(Number 3) = 1/6
=0.167
outcomes are
probability of number 1
showing? • P(Number 4) = 1/6
having equal
2. what is the =0.167
probability of number 2 • P(Number 6) = 1/6
probability or
showing?
=0.167
chance.
3. what is the
probability of number 3
Hence this type
showing?
4. what is the
 Quiz
• http://www.bbc.co.uk/skillswise/numbers
 Measuring Probability- Quiz
P(Event) = Number of ways the
Experiment: event could occur

Roll a die which Total number of outcomes

has six sides with

each side showing • P(Odd Number) = 3/6
one number from 1 =0.5
to 6 and with each
• P(Even Number)= 3/6
side showing a
different number. =0.5
Event:
1. what is the
probability of
showing odd
number ?
2. what is the
probability of
 Measuring Probability- Quiz
P(Event) = Number of ways the
Experiment: event could occur

Roll a die which has Total number of outcomes

six sides with each side

showing one number • P(Greater than 3) = 3/6
from 1 to 6 and with =0.5
each side showing a
different number.
Event: • P(Less than 5) = 4/6
=0.33
1. what is the
probability of showing
numbers greater than 3 ?
2. what is the
probability of showing
numbers less than 5 ?
3. What is the
The probability for the
opposite of an event E is Complement of an
called Complement of Event-1. probability of
that event . Complement showing numbers greater
is denoted as E’. than 3
Experiment: Complement of this event is
Roll a die which = probability of not
has six sides with showing numbers greater
than 3
each side showing
P(Number showing >3 ) =
one number from 1 3/6 = 0.5
to 6 and with each
side showing a A A’
P(Not showing number>3)
= 1-0.5 =0.5
different number.
Event: Event-2. probability of
showing numbers less
1. what is the than 3
probability of showing
numbers greater than 3 ? Complement of this event is
= probability of not
2. what is the showing numbers less
probability of showing P(E’)=
than 3 1-
numbers less than 5 ? P(Number showing <3 ) =
Joining Two Or more Events
• Addition Rule
 Mutually Exclusive Events
Mutually exclusive
§If event A happens B can not happen Or
Vice-versa

A B C D

Mutually Exclusive Not Mutually Exclusive

Events Events

Mutually exclusive
§If two events do not have common
outcome the events are mutually
Exclusive
 Mutually Exclusive Events
Mutually exclusive Not Mutually
§If event A Exclusive
happens B can not §If two events have
happen . common outcome
§They will not the events are Not
happen at the mutually Exclusive
same time
§They will not have D
C
no common
Mutually Exclusive
outcome
Events Not Mutually Exclusive
Events
A B
A. Sun arises in the morning . B. Sun does not arise in the
morning
 Hat is the

What is the probability of selecting a King ?

What is the probability of selecting a
Queen
What ? probability of selecting a Queen
is the
or Kingis ?the probability of selecting a Queen
What
or Black ?
 Joint Probability - Quiz
• The Outcome of Find the result of joining
the following events:
Event E= {3,4,6} 2. E&F = Nil What will
Event F= {2,5,7} 3. F&G = {2,5} be the
= Nil
Event G= {1,2,5} 4. G&H result if
= Nil either of
5. E&G
Event H= {8,9,6} = {6}
6. E&H the events
Find the following are = Nil
mutually 7. F&H= happen at a
exclusive Mutually
or not: time ?
8. F or {2,5,7,3,4,
E
= {2,5,7,1}
8. E & F Exclusive
Not Mutually 9. F or G
=
9. F&G Exclusive
Mutually 10.G or H
{1,2,5,8,9,6}
= {2,5,7,3,4,6}
10.G&H Exclusive
Mutually = {3,4,6,8,9}
11.E or G
Exclusive
11.E&G Not Mutually 12.E or H
=
Exclusive {2,5,7,8,9,6}
12.E&H Mutually 13.F or H
Exclusive
13.F&H 14.The symbol ‘U’ means
14. Events that an individual 15.The symbol ‘ ’ means
Questions: What will be the
The Addition Rule-1
result if either of
Either A or the event to
B happen at a
time ?
Mutually Exclusive
Not Mutually Exclusive

1. P(A U B) = P(A) 1. P(A U B) = P(A) + P(B) –

+ P(B) P(A B)
P(A or B ) = P(A) + P(B) –
P(A or B) = P(A)
P(A and B)
+ P(B)
Remove
2. P(A or B or C ) = P(A) + P(B)
2. P(A or B or C) = +P(C) – P(A and B) - no.2
P(A
P(A)+P(B)+P(C ) and C) – P(C and B) – red
Number cards
Red Black P(ARed
and B and C)
2
Car Card Car
d d

All read and All Black All Red cards without

Cards Number 2 red Cards and
 Addition Rule-1 -Quiz
One Card is selected from
52 cards:
Which of the following is Mutually
Exclusive event and match the formula on
the opposite :
1. What is the probability
that it is either a king or 1. P(A or B ) = P(A) + P(B) –
a Queen ? P(A and B)
2. What is the probability 2. P(A or B) =
that it is either a king or
a Ace ? P(A)+P(B)
3. What is the probability 3. P(A U B) =
that it is either a Red or P(A)+P(B)
number 1 ? 4. P(A U B) = P(A) + P(B)
4. What is the probability – P(A B)
that it is either a Ace or a
number2 ?
5. What is the probability
Questions: What will be the
The Addition Rule-2
result if both
Both A and events to happen
B at a time ?
Mutually Exclusive
Not Mutually Exclusive

1. P(A B) = 0 1. P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) –

P(A and B) = 0 P(A U B)
P(A and B ) = P(A) + P(B)
2. P(A and B and C) = 0 – P(A or B)
2. P(A and B and C ) = P(A) +
P(B) +P(C) – P(A or B) -
P(A or C) – P(C or B) –
Number
Red Black P(ARed
or B or C)
2
Car Card Car
d d

Both read + Black Red and Two

Card will not be
 Addition Rule-2 -Quiz
One Card is selected from
52 cards:
Which of the following is Mutually
Exclusive event and match the formula on
the opposite :
1. What is the probability
that it is both a king and 1. P(A and B ) = P(A) + P(B)
Queen ? – P(A or B)
2. What is the probability 2. P(A and B ) = 0
that it is both a king and
Black ? 3. P(A B) = 0
3. What is the probability
that it is both a Red or 4. P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) –
number 1 ? P(A U B)
4. What is the probability
that it is both Ace or a
number2 ?
5. What is the probability
 Probability
Two events of an of Joint Events
experiment can be
• Whatusing
joined is the probability
‘And’ , ‘Or’of number showing more than 3
and less than 6 ?
• Step-1: Find the outcomes of event-1 &2
• Let Event-1 = Probability of showing more than 3
• Let Event-2 = Probability of showing less than 6
• We name the event-1 as E and event-2 as F F
E
• Outcomes of E = { 4,5,6}
• Outcomes of F = { 1,2,3,4,5} 4,5, 1,2,3,
• Step-2: Find the common outcomes of event-1
4,5
&2
6
• Common outcomes to both event 1&2 = 4,5
• Step-3: Find whether the events 1&2 F
E
are mutually exclusive or not mutually
exclusive: 4,5 1,2,
6
• Our events are not mutually exclusive. 3
Hence
 Probability of Joint Events
• What is the probability of number showing more than 3
and less than 6 ?
• Step- 4: Decide the suitable formula:
• 1.If events are mutually exclusive the formula
for ‘and’ is:
• P(A B) = 0
• 2.If events are not mutually exclusive the
formula for ‘and’ is:
• P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A U B)
P(A U B) P(A B)
• Our events
Probability of are
A ORnot Probability
mutually exclusive.
of A and B
B Hence we have to apply the B)
P(A AND second
P(Aformula
OR B) Probability of A
Probability of A intersection B
 Probability of Joint Events
• What is the probability of number showing more than 3
and less than 6 ?
P ( A and B) = 0.33 .
P•( Step-
number 5: showing
Find the more
P(A): than 3 and less than 6 )
P(A) = P( Number showing more than 3) = 3/6 =
=• 0.33
P ( 0.5
Outcomes common to events of showing number more than 3
and
• less 6:6)Find
than
Step- = 0.33
the P(B):
P•( P(B)
showing
= P(4,5 is ) = showing
Number 0.33 less than 6) = 5/6 =
0.83
• Step- 7: Find the P(A OR B): E OR
• P(AUB) = P( Number showing all the outcomesFof more
than 3 & less than 6) = 6/6 = 1 1,2,3,
• Step- 8: Apply the values in to the 4,5,6
formula: F
E
• P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) – p(AUB)
• = 0.5 + 0.83 – 1 4,5, 1,2,3,
4,5
 Probability of Joint Events
• What is the probability of number showing more than 3
or less than 6 ?
• Step-1: Find the outcomes of event-1 &2
• Let Event-1 = Probability of showing more than 3
• Let Event-2 = Probability of showing less than 6
• We name the event-1 as E and event-2 as F
• Outcomes of E = { 4,5,6}
• Outcomes of F = { 1,2,3,4,5}
• Step-2: Find the combined outcomes of event-
1 &2
• Combined outcomes to both event 1&2 =
1,2,34,5,6
• Step-3: Find whether the events 1&2
are mutually exclusive or not mutually
exclusive:
 Probability of Joint Events – using
‘OR’
• What is the probability of number showing more than 3
Or less than 6 ?
• Step- 4: Decide the suitable formula:
• 1.If events are mutually exclusive the formula
for ‘Or’ is:
• P(A U B) = P(A) + P(B)
• 2.If events are not mutually exclusive the
formula for ‘ Or’ is:
• P(A UB) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A B)
 Probability of Joint Events
• What is the probability of number showing more than 3
Or less than 6 ?
P•( Step-
A or B) 5:=Find
1 the P(A):
P•( P(A)
number = P(showing
Numbermore thanmore
showing 3 or less
thanthan
3) = 63/6
) ==
1 0.5
P•(All outcomes
Step- 6: Find of
theevents
P(B): of showing number more than 3
and less than 6) = 1
• P(B) = P( Number showing less than 6) = 5/6 =
P ( showing 1,2,3,4,5,6 is ) = 1
0.83
• Step- 7: Find the P(A AND B):
• P(A B) = P( Number showing common outcomes to the
events> 3 & < 6) = 2/6 = 0.33
• Step- 8: Apply the values in to the formula:
• P(A U B) = P(A) + P(B) – p(A B)
• = 0.5 + 0.83 – 0.334,5,
 The Outcome
of
Event E=
Addition using Neither
{3,4,6}
Event F=
{2,5,7}
What will
Eventbe
G= What will be
the result if the result if
either of the Neither of the
events to events to
happen at a 1. happen
Neither E at= a
2. E&F = Nil
time ? = {2,5}
time
nor F ? {3,4,6,2,5,7}
3. F&G = {1,7}
2. Neither F
4. G&H = Nil =
nor G {1,2,5,8,9,6
5. E&G = Nil =
= {6} 3. Neither G {3,4,6,1,2,5 }
6. E&H =
= Nil
7. F&H nor H {3,4,8,
=
4. Neither E {2,5,7,8,9,
Questions:
The Addition Rule-2
Neither A
Nor B
Mutually Exclusive
Not Mutually Exclusive

1. P(A U B) = 0 1. P(A U B) = 1- P(AUB)

P(neither A nor B) =1- { P(A) + P(B) –
P(A B)}
=0
P(neither A nor B ) =1-
{ P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)}
Multiplication Rule
 Independent & Conditional Events
Independent Event Conditional Event
The probability of an
The probability of an
event occurring will
event occurring will
be get affected by
not be get affected by
other events or extra
other events.
• Example:
• information.
Example:
• The probability of a
person buying a MBA
• The probability of a
Scanner is not affected by person buying a MBA
sex.
Scanneris affected by
the specialisation.
• Hence the event ‘Buying
• Hence the event
a MBA Scanner’ is not
‘Buying a MBA
affected by the other
Scanner’ is affected
event ‘ male/female by the other event
buyer’ ‘marketing /Finance
• Hence the event ‘Buying branch of the buyer’
a MBA Scanner’ is • Hence the event
independent of the event ‘Buying a MBA
 The probability that
the event ‘A’ occurs Conditional
when we know that
‘B’ has occurred is
Probability
conditional
In a game suppose your
• probability
opponent has thrown a dice
and you have not seen the
result . Throwing 6 is the
winning criteria .
We define :
Event A: Throw is a number 6
4. P(Throw is a number 6)= 1/6 =
16%
6. Opponent has 16% chance to
win
Now the opponent says he had
thrown an even number.
Hence we define :
Event B: Throw is an even number
8. Possible outcomes are 2,4,6
9. 6 is one among the outcomes –
 Conditional Events

• If we have two events A & B

the probability P (A|B) is the
Conditional probability of A
given B.
• That is the probability that
the event A occurs when we
know that B has occurred.
• |- this vertical line means “given”
• The event on the right of the vertical line is
the additional information.
 Independent & Conditional Events
- Quiz
Find Independent or Conditional Events
• 1. An individual has high IQ. An individual is

selected for university post

• 2. A patient takes long time to recover from an

operation. The patient is elderly

• 3. A student plays chess. A student is good at

Maths

• 4. A student plays Table - Tennis. A student is good

at Maths

• 5. Today it rains. Today is Tuesday

 Multiplication Rule
• Independent • Conditional Events
Events P(A and B) = P(A|B)*
P(A and B) = P(A) * P(B)
P(B)
Two mutually exclusive
events cannot be
independent
 Calculating Independent & Conditional
Probabilities
• Independent • Conditional
Probability Probability
• If two events A & B are • If
P two events
(A|B) = P( are
A and B )
independent then the dependent
probability that they both /P(B)
P(A and B)= P(A)* P (A|B) = P( A B ) / P
occur is:
P(B)
P(A, B and C )= P(A)* ( B P(A
) and B)= P(A)*
P(A|B)
P(B) * P(C)