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Emerging Asia: Serge Besanger, PHD

This document discusses economic trends in emerging Asia, including India and China. It notes that India's middle class population is projected to increase significantly by 2025. China's top cities for GDP growth from 2013 to 2020 are predicted to be Chengdu, Chongqing, Wuhan, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen. The document also addresses economic topics like currency reserves, property inventory levels, corruption, and pension liabilities in China. Trends in Southeast Asian countries like FDI levels, currency reserves, and inflation are also examined.

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Serge Besanger
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122 views75 pages

Emerging Asia: Serge Besanger, PHD

This document discusses economic trends in emerging Asia, including India and China. It notes that India's middle class population is projected to increase significantly by 2025. China's top cities for GDP growth from 2013 to 2020 are predicted to be Chengdu, Chongqing, Wuhan, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen. The document also addresses economic topics like currency reserves, property inventory levels, corruption, and pension liabilities in China. Trends in Southeast Asian countries like FDI levels, currency reserves, and inflation are also examined.

Uploaded by

Serge Besanger
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 75

Emerging Asia

Serge Besanger, PhD

Alternative views :

- The world is flat (Th. Friedman) - The world is spiky (Richard Florida) - The world is wavy.

The world is flat

The world is spiky

The world is spiky


Patents are registered in a shrinking number of metropolises. The US, Japan and South Korea dominate.

The world is wavy


Which city registered the highest growth in Champagne consumption in 2006 ? What are the forecasts for 2016 ?

2006: London + 0.7 M liters over 2003

2016: Lagos + 1 M liters over today

Part I.1. : The Indian dream

Indian States and Growth Crescents


10

China today

India today

11

Middle-class population defined as household income of Rs 200k to Rs 1 Mil/yr is on target to increase by 78% to 2015 and by 53% to 2025.

+ 47,5

+ 67,4

Source : McKinsey Quarterly

Indian brownout (Jul-Aug.12)

13

India: violent by Asian standards but


(Intentional homicides, Interpol, 2011)
Iceland : 0.3
France : 0.8 Monaco : 0 Slovenia : Turkey : 0.6 18.4 (06)

China : 1.2

US : 5.1 Vietnam 1.90 Jamaica : 62.1 Venezuela : 49.1 S. Pedro, Honduras 182.9 Singapore 0.38

India : 3.5 Saudi Arabia : 1 S. Africa : 34.1 Brazil : 23

Per 100,000 per year

14

Ease of doing business 2012 - World Bank


China India Singapore

Starting a business Dealing w/construction permits Getting electricity Protecting investors Paying taxes Trading across borders Getting credit

151/185

173

181
114
100 122 68 70

182
105
49

2 5 2 5

152 127
23

1
12

Source : www.doingbusiness.org

What is Indias ranking in the World Banks Doing Business 2012

The ranking question:

16

A : No.

132
17

TRANSPORTATION

Port of Bombay

4 Mo containers FY 12 = 60% of all Indian traffic. Managed by the Indian Government.

The ranking question:


What is Bombays global ranking among ports ?

20

A : No.

78

21

What is the size of Indias GDP, fiscal balance, debt, and trade surplus or deficit ?

The $Bn question:

22

A : $1.8 Tn GDP (FY12) Exports(FY12) : $309 bn Imports (FY12) : $489 bn Fiscal balance 5.5% of GDP Public debt 70+% of GDP

23

Part II.1. : The Chinese dream

24

Name the worlds top five cities in terms of GDP growth, 2013-2020

Question:

25

City GDP world champs (EIU)

26

Chinas Growth Crescents

27

Shanghais response bonded trade target : $200Bn

28

City GDP world champs (EIU)

29

City GDP world champs (EIU)

30

City GDP world champs (EIU)

31

the other cities

Tier 1
5 cities

Beijing, Shanghai Wenzhou Guangzhou, Shenzhen

High Flyers Tier 2


32 cities

Hangzhou, Nanjing, Chongqing, Shenyang, Foshan, Tianjin Chengdu Wuhan

Mainstream

Changzhou, Ningbo, Dongguan, Suzhou, Taizhou, Wuxi, Xiamen, Zhongshan

Upcoming

Taiyuan, Changsha, Dalian, Harbin, Jinan, Kunming, Qingdao, Shantou, Shijiazhuang, Tangshan, Xian, Zibo Zhengzhou, Changchun Huizhou, Huzhou, Jiaxing, Jinhua, Jining, Laiwu, Lanzhou, Linxi, Luoyang, Luzhou, Mianyang, Nanchang, Naming, Putian, Qinzhou, Quanzhou, Rizhao, Shaoxing, Taian, Weifang, Urumqi,

Anshan, Changde, Tier 3 Daqing, 38 cities Fuzhou, Guiyang, Zaozhuang Haikou, Zhanjiang Hefei

Xiangfan, Xuzhou, Yanzhou, Yantai, Yichang, Yiyang, Zhenjiang, Zhuhai

Key Legend Grocery retail sales per capita > RMB5,000 RMB2,000 < Grocery retail sales per capita < RMB5,000 RMB1,000 < Grocery retail sales per capita < RMB2,000

Tier 4

Remaining 500+ cities

Grocery retail sales per capita < RMB1,000

China War Chest : FX res

33

Banker to the world ?

34

Aug 2004

1. 2.
3.
35

Aug 2007

1. 2.
3.
36

Aug 2013 f

1. 2.
3.
37

Aug 2013 actual : WF $241 Bn

yq chgu yunfng !

1. 2.
3.
38

Chinas NPLs

39

How many months of inventory does South Florida have ? How about China ?

40

China has 3 Bn SqM of property under development = 32 months of inventory


Floridas inventory = 6.9 Months.

41

Bringing the inventory down to 23 months entails slashing housing starts to 1/6th of 2010 levels, a $97Bn sacrifice in investments = 1.6% of GDP Impact on commodities ?

42

Infrastructure

How much did corrupt Chinese State railway & other officials steal and move overseas in the past ten years?

The $Bn question:

44

A:$

stolen by 17,928 officials

121,235,871,203.51

45

Q: Shanghais average air quality in 2012 (US embassy)

46

47

The fertility question:


What was the fertility rate in Shanghai in 2012 ?

48

A:

0.6
49

Gender imbalances are leading to

skyrocketting bride prices

In some provinces, the ratio of newborn boys to girls is 1.7 to 1.


NB: Excl. car & apartment.

50

Workfore engagement, suicides remain important issues

51

Growth country ?

CHINA

USA

Between 2010 Pop growth, 2010-50, %

- 3,5% shrink by Median age 2050 39.6 11 points, from 72% to 61% 49.8
Urban pop. over 60, 2020

and 2050 Chinas workforce will + 31%

33%

23%
52

By how much did median salaries rise across China in the past 8 years ?

The $Mo question:

53

A:

181.6%

54

Chinas (temporary ?) inbound FDI retreat

2012

2013f

55

Rank the largest gainers and losers in the French textile market in FY 2012

The $Mo question:

56

A : China lost 5.4% India lost 16% Pakistan gained 3.6% Spain gained 3.6%

57

Chinas pension liability with only 365m pensioners is 155% of GDP. Should everyone in China have pension rights, the liability would exceed

400% of GDP.

58

Part III.1 : The ASEAN dream

59

60

Reserves buildup
2012 central bank reserves
CB RES, EoY
300
250 200 150 100 50 0 Indo Mal Phils Spore Thai VN CB RES, EoY

ASEAN : deep, efficient capital markets (source : Mc Kinsey)

Back on the FDI map


2012 inward FDI
25

20

15

10

Asia FDI US FDI EU FDI

0 Indo Mal Phils Spore Thai VN

ISKANDAR : The New DUBAI?

64

2013e CPI in ASEAN

CPI YoY
12 10 8

6
4 2 0 Indo Mal Phils Spore Thai VN

CPI YoY

66

Part IV : Currency predictions Impact of Abenomics

69

Currencies : buckle up for the ride

Commodities : buckle up for the ride

Aussie $ : buckle up !

Treasuries : beware October panic !

Abe Shinzs shock treatment


Fiscal spending up by 2%pts of GDP, raising deficit to 11.5% of GDP for FY 2013 Consumption tax rate hike to 8% in Q214 and 10% in 2015. Monetary: Apr 13 onwards, BoJ buys 7tn of gov bonds x month using electronically created money ( = US QE) Allow Yen to depreciate from 80Y/$ to 102 and beyond.

What do you think ?

75

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