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    Systems Causal Loops

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    bizhanj
    This document provides an introduction to systems thinking and causal loops. It discusses key concepts like mechanistic versus systems views, what constitutes a system, and why a systems perspective is important. It also outlines various systems thinking tools like causal loop diagrams, reinforcing and balancing loops, archetypes, and systems dynamics models. These tools can help examine how structures influence behavior over time and identify high leverage interventions. Examples like drifting goals, limits to success, and the tragedy of the commons are used to illustrate systems thinking concepts.

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    Systems Causal Loops

    Uploaded by

    bizhanj
    207 views44 pages
    This document provides an introduction to systems thinking and causal loops. It discusses key concepts like mechanistic versus systems views, what constitutes a system, and why a systems perspective is important. It also outlines various systems thinking tools like causal loop diagrams, reinforcing and balancing loops, archetypes, and systems dynamics models. These tools can help examine how structures influence behavior over time and identify high leverage interventions. Examples like drifting goals, limits to success, and the tragedy of the commons are used to illustrate systems thinking concepts.

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    Causal modeling

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    This document provides an introduction to systems thinking and causal loops. It discusses key concepts like mechanistic versus systems views, what constitutes a system, and why a systems perspective is important. It also outlines various systems thinking tools like causal loop diagrams, reinforcing and balancing loops, archetypes, and systems dynamics models. These tools can help examine how structures influence behavior over time and identify high leverage interventions. Examples like drifting goals, limits to success, and the tragedy of the commons are used to illustrate systems thinking concepts.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as ppt, pdf, or txt
    207 views44 pages

    Systems Causal Loops

    Uploaded by

    bizhanj
    This document provides an introduction to systems thinking and causal loops. It discusses key concepts like mechanistic versus systems views, what constitutes a system, and why a systems perspective is important. It also outlines various systems thinking tools like causal loop diagrams, reinforcing and balancing loops, archetypes, and systems dynamics models. These tools can help examine how structures influence behavior over time and identify high leverage interventions. Examples like drifting goals, limits to success, and the tragedy of the commons are used to illustrate systems thinking concepts.

    Copyright:

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    Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as ppt, pdf, or txt
    of 44

    Introduction to Systems Thinking and Causal Loops

    Todd Little

    LEARNING ORGANIZATIONS
    THE FIVE DISCIPLINES
    Personal Mastery

    Shared Vision

    Systems Thinking

    Mental Models

    Team Learning

    MECHANISTIC VIEW
    Universe is a machine Analytic method leads to reductionism Very effective when change is slow CAUSE EFFECT
    Management intervention for Cause-Effect
    Mitigate the Effect (Fire-Fight) Eliminate the Cause (Better not happen again) Run Away (and hide)

    MECHANISTIC EXTRAPOLATION
    700 600 500
    Revenue

    400 300 200 100 0 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

    SYSTEMS VIEW
    Focusing on principle of organization, particularly interdependent relationships Dealing with detail complexity and dynamic complexity

    Seeing processes of change rather than snapshots

    WHAT IS A SYSTEM?
    A collection of people and/or parts which interact with each other to function as a whole

    SYSTEM INTEGRITY

    Dividing a cow in half does not give you two smaller cows

    WHY A SYSTEMS PERSPECTIVE?


    Facilitates leadership by leveraged action
    integrating competing priorities acknowledging and handling unintended consequences Problems facing us are more complex due to increase in information flow interdependencies rate of change

    The significant problems we face today


    cannot be solved at the same level of

    thinking at which they were created.


    - Albert Einstein

    WHAT IS SYSTEMS THINKING?


    Examining how

    WE CREATE OUR OWN PROBLEMS

    Seeing the BIG PICTURE Recognizing that STRUCTURE INFLUENCES PERFORMANCE

    ASPECTS OF STRUCTURE
    Fire-fighting
    Crises
    Tasks

    Events

    Anticipating

    Trends

    Patterns

    Designing
    Unwritten Rules Reward Systems

    Structure

    Peoples Mental Models

    EVENTS, PATTERNS, AND STRUCTURE


    Action Mode Time Way of Orientation Perceiving Questions to Ask

    Events

    React!

    Present

    Witness event Measure or track patterns of events Systems Thinking

    Patterns

    Adapt!

    What's the fastest way to react? What trends seem to be recurring? What structures are in place causing these patterns?

    Structure Create Future Change!

    SYSTEMS THINKING TOOLS


    Causal Loop Diagrams - a useful way to represent dynamic interrelationships
    Provide a visual representation with which to communicate that understanding Make explicit one's understanding of a system structure - Capture the mental model

    REINFORCING LOOP
    Structure
    Employee Performance
    S S

    Behavior Over Time


    Supportive Behavior

    Perf. Level

    Supervisors Supportive Behavior

    Unsupportive Behavior Time

    BALANCING LOOP
    Structure
    Desired Inventory
    S

    Behavior Over Time

    Discrepancy
    O
    100 ++

    Actual Inventory

    Actual Inventory
    S

    Desired Inventory

    Inventory Adjustment

    100 100 - -

    Time

    SYSTEMS ARCHETYPES
    A class of tools that capture the "common stories in systems thinking
    Powerful tools for diagnosing problems and identifying high leverage interventions that creates fundamental change

    SYSTEMS ARCHETYPES
    Drifting Goals

    Escalation

    Fixes that Fail / Backfire


    Growth and Underinvestment Limits to Success Shifting the Burden / Addiction Success to the Successful Tragedy of the Commons

    FIXES THAT FAIL / BACKFIRE


    S

    Behavior Over Time


    Fix

    Problem Symptom

    Delay
    S

    Time Unintended Consequences

    Dilbert Learns Causal Loops

    THE SOFTWARE BUG FIX


    S

    Number of Bugs in Software

    Reward for Fixing Software Bugs

    O S

    Incentive to Write Software with Bugs

    Fixes that Fail


    Breaking a Fixes that Fail cycle usually requires two actions: acknowledging that the fix is merely alleviating a symptom, and making a commitment to solve the real problem now. A two pronged attack of applying the fix and planning out the fundamental solution will help ensure that you dont get caught in a perpetual cycle of solving yesterdays solutions

    Drifting Goals
    O

    Goal

    Pressure to Lower Goal


    S S

    Goal

    Gap

    Time
    S

    Actual
    S

    Corrective Action

    Delay

    THE BOILED FROG


    If you put a frog in boiling water, it will hop out immediately If you put a frog in cold water and slowly bring the water to boil, the frog will unwittingly enjoy its last blissful warm bath

    THE BOILED FROG


    S

    Perceived Desired Temperature


    O S

    Tolerance for Temperature

    Temp

    Temperature Gap

    Time
    S O

    Hop Out

    Drifting Goals
    Drifting performance figures are indicators that the Drifting Goals archetype is at work and that real corrective actions are not being taken. Understand how goals are set

    Success to the Successful


    Success of A
    S S S S

    Success of B A

    Allocation to A Instead of B Resources to A


    S S

    Time

    Resources to B

    Time

    Success to the Successful


    Look for reasons why the system was set up to create just one winner Find ways to make teams collaborators rather than competitors

    Success to the Successful NIH Syndrome


    S S S S

    Desire to redo vs. desire to reuse Amount of redo


    S S

    Redo

    Confidence in Ability to redo

    Success of reuse

    Time Reuse

    Amount of reuse

    Time

    Limits to Success
    Structure
    S

    Behavior Over Time


    Burnout

    Energy Level
    O

    Employee Performance
    S S

    Perf. Level
    Positive Reinforcement

    Diminishing Returns

    Hours Worked
    S

    Supervisors Supportive Behavior

    Time

    Limits to Sales Success


    S

    Market Size
    S S

    Market Exposure to Potential Customers

    Potential Customers Sales

    Systems Dynamics Models


    non customer contacts SALES FRACTION
    CONTACT RATE Potential Customers Customers sales INITIAL CUSTOMERS total market

    customer with non customer contacts


    customer prevalence

    Legal Disclaimer
    The following is fiction. Any resemblance to any leading oil & gas software development company is purely coincidental.

    New Sales

    1980

    1985

    1990

    1995

    2000

    2005

    2010

    Total Customers

    1980

    1985

    1990

    1995

    2000

    2005

    2010

    Revenue

    1980

    1985

    1990

    1995

    2000

    2005

    2010

    Systems Dynamics Models


    non customer contacts SALES FRACTION
    CONTACT RATE Potential Customers Customers sales INITIAL CUSTOMERS total market

    customer with non customer contacts


    customer prevalence

    Ex-Customers

    #Customers #Active Customers

    1980

    1985

    1990

    1995

    2000

    2005

    2010

    Total Pot Rev Actual Revenue #Customers #Active Customers

    1980

    1985

    1990

    1995

    2000

    2005

    2010

    Tragedy of the Commons

    Tragedy of the Commons


    S

    Net Gains for A


    S S

    As Activity
    S

    Resource Limit
    S

    Total Activity
    S S

    Gain per Individual Activity

    Time

    B
    S

    Bs Activity
    S

    Net Gains for B

    Time

    Tragedy of Integration
    Fixed Budget
    S

    Investment in features
    S

    Success from Product Investment


    S

    Investment in Integration

    DELAY
    Investment in Integration
    S

    Perceived Success from Integration

    Time

    B
    O

    Success from Product Investment


    S

    Time

    Fixed Budget

    Investment in features

    Tragedy of the Commons


    Solutions for a Tragedy of the Commons never lie at the individual level (The Libertarian Nightmare) What are the incentives for individuals to persist in their actions? Can the long-term collective loss be made more real? Find ways to reconcile short-term individual rewards with long-term cumulative consequences

    Software Integration
    S O

    Landmark Marketing Vision


    S

    Customer demand for Integration


    S S

    ISG Interest in Integration


    S S

    Level of Integration

    ISG push of Integration


    Investment in Integration

    IPG Interest in Integration


    S

    Software Integration
    Interest in Integration S Investment in Integration O

    Limits to Growth
    Success to the Successful

    Success from Integration S Frustration with Dependencies and Legacy Integration

    O
    Investment in features

    Success from Features

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