The Channel-less Consumer
Identifying Attribution within Mobile
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New Approach to Consumer Centric Modeling
Michael Kaushansky Analytics and Insights, Havas Media, [email protected] @kaushansky
Our global Auto client had experienced a recent deteriorating trend
Deterioration in key performance metrics (leads & sales) We looked for answers: why wasnt our existing media mix working? Why wasnt TV, search and display across screens generating the same volume of leads? Simulations of existing media mix models pointed to a shift to digital though unclear where. Current models were not reflective of emerging trends in media.
3
What we experienced was a shift in marketing dynamics
Consumption The Path to Purchase Media Click to edit Master text styles
Second level
Third level
Fourth level Fifth level
The Role of the Consumer
Consumer Expectations
Adding to the shift - the emergence of the multi-channel marketplace 2 explosive and complementary markets Local Advertising: $35B in 2015
Mobile Commerce: $39B in 2016
Location, Location, Location 70% of mobile revenue tied to location by 2015 40% of mobile search has local intent
1) BIA/Kelsey, U.S. Local Media Forecast, 03/2012 2) eMarketer, US Mobile Commerce Forecast: Capitalizing On Consumers Urgent Needs, 01/2012 3) Forrester Report, US Online Sales Forecast, 2009 4) BIA/Kelsey, U.S. Local Media Annual Forecast (2010-2015), 06/2011
Cross Channel Shopping will be 6X of Online Retail alone
Source: Paypal Media Network
Multi-channel brings a new complexity to the purchase funnel
Nearly 1/3 of retailers credited smartphones with driving traffic to physical stores in 2011, up from 1/5 in 2010
-Retail Systems Research, The 21st Century Store: The Search for Relevance, 6/2011
15% of US online shoppers made a holiday purchase via their mobile, growing 3X over Holiday 2010
- Baynote, 2nd Annual Baynote Holiday Shopping Survey, 1/2012 - IBM, Benchmark December holiday report, 1/2012
Source: Paypal Media Network
The purchase funnel becomes the purchase pretzel
Source: Paypal Media Network
Existing model failed to identify the shift towards digital
Investment
Consumer journey is unique
Black Box
Journey metrics are essential to understand the impact of media
Sales
Our objective was clearupdate the model!
Enhance our existing model to address the unexpected digital shift
Approach divided the journey into stages, defined success metrics across each stage & linked the metrics to show progression throughout the journey Methodology developed 4 models which explained key drivers at each stage, i.e. what drove search, site traffic, leads and sales
Of Course it will work
We modeled the consumer journey across the 5 stages
Stage
1
Success Metric
Organic Branded Search Page Views Digital Leads Showroom Traffic Unit Sales
Awareness Engagement Consideration Shopping Purchase
2
3
4
5
Hierarchical Modeling explained impact at each stage
Media Mix Consumer Stages Awareness
TV Print OOH Display Search Mobile Online video Paid social Social
Engagement Consideration Shopping Purchase
4 Independent ECONOMETRIC Models
Known Strong Existing Correlation
We identified 12+ data sources across 52 weeks
Source Digital Media (DFA) Kantar Evaliant Kantar Stradegy Sysomos Hitwise/Compete Google Insights Autodata/Wards Google Analytics/ Omniture Harte-Hanks Urban Science Manufacturer Third Party Sites Brand Tracker Census Data Begins Timing 2009 2010 2011 2009 last year 2004 2008 2009 2001 2009 2009 2009 2010 2000 daily weekly weekly weekly daily daily monthly daily weekly weekly weekly monthly Semi monthly Data Descriptions actual media spend by channel (OLA, SEM) competitor web impressions and spend offline GRP & spend social media buzz data site visitation and duration total search trends (paid & organic) monthly sales data by brand/model/category Website/model/configurator/RFQ pageviews owners, prospects, email/mail campaign, etc. leads by channel by week dealer visits Comp model PV, day/week/month attitudinal data by month economic data by Geo Metrics Available impressions, clicks, hvts impressions, spend GRP, spend buzz volume, sentiment visitation, duration search trend index sales figures visits, configs, RFQ, Model PV leads dealer visits model pageviews consideration, intent economic data
Structured Equation
Yt= + 1Mt + 2Et + 3St + 4Tt + t, Y (represents the dependent variable, e.g.,sales) M (media), E (engagement), S (searches), T (store traffic), etc.
Results
As suspected results pointed media consumption varying at each stage
We identified 5 key insights
1. Brand equity dominates & TV is king of paid (36% contribution from TV)
Stage Awareness Engagement Consideration Shopping
Purchase
2. More channels at play in driving site traffic, digital media is the workhorse (33% contribution)
Stage Awareness Engagement Consideration Shopping Purchase
3. Paid Search was essential in driving leads influenced by DRTV (paid/Mobile search + DRTV @ 46%)
Stage Awareness Engagement Consideration Shopping Purchase
4. Leads were the most significant driver of showroom traffic (40% contribution)
Stage Awareness Engagement Consideration Shopping Purchase
5. Showroom traffic was the best proxy of units sales
Stage Awareness
Show-rooming was responsible for 82% of sales
3800 3600 3400 3200 8000 7500 7000 6000 5500 5000 Sales Units
Engagement
Consideration Shopping Purchase
Showroom Traffic Unit Sales
6500
3000
2800 2600 2400
4500
4000 3500
Moving the consumer further down journey increasingly relies on paid media
1 2 3 4 5
sales
100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%
Media Base
The new models made our simulations more true-to-life (what-if scenarios) identified dimensioning returns & ROI
What weve learned
1. Consistently / frequently assess the journey of your consumers 2. Digital media is significant in the middle of the journey 3. Mobiles role was stronger than previously thought 4. Promotional messaging is effective if consistent at each stage 5. Exogenous data (weather & holidays) have minimal impact 6. Going dark beyond 5-weeks would be detrimental 7. Optimizing media at each stage points to a 12% improvement
Ramifications and things you should consider
Do Your Homework Determine consumer behavior by stage/funnel Weight social influence along journey
Set up for measurement success Establish KPIs along purchase path
Crunch data Unify 3 screens
What does it tell you?
Weight activity against conversion contribution Optimize accordingly
Future Consideration
Weight social influence along the journey Invest in approach & tech to unify screens
Creative + Media
Merge screen identifiers and interactions
CRM lists
Paid, owned and earned media
