2008-03-15 Mike Cohn - Agile Estimation and Planning

An Introduction to Agile Estimating and Planning
Mike Cohn
12 March 2008
20032007 Mountain Goat Software
Mike Cohn - background
Agenda
The right units for estimating
How to estimate
Release planning
Planning with multiple teams
How long will it take

to read the latest Harry Potter book? to drive to Paris?
Estimate size; derive duration

Size Calculation Duration
300 kilograms
Velocity = 20
300/20 = 15 sprints
Measures of size
Sequential
Lines of code Function points
Agile
Story points Ideal days
Ideal days
How long something would take if
its all you worked on you had no interruptions and everything you need is available
The ideal time of a basketball game is 40 minutes Four 10-minute quarters
The elapsed time is much longer (2+ hours)
Story points
The bigness of a task
Influenced by How hard it is How much of it there is
As a user, I want to be able to have some but not all items in my cart gift wrapped.
Relative values are what is important:
A login screen is a 2. A search feature is an 8.
Points are unit-less

Zoo points
What value in zoo points would you put on these zoo animals?
Lion Kangaroo Rhinocerus Bear Giraffe Gorilla Hippopotamus Tiger

Comparing the approaches

Story points help drive cross-functional behavior Story point estimates do not decay Story points are a pure measure of size Estimating in story points is typically faster
My ideal days cannot be added to your ideal days

Ideal days are easier to explain outside the team Ideal days are easier to estimate at first
Ideal days can force companies to confront time wasting activities

The problem with mixing units

Code the 12 10 5 8
As a frequent flyer, I want

Design the 30 3 20 2 60 6 40 4 20 2 Automate Test the

As a frequent flyer, I want As a frequent flyer, I want
Agenda
The right units for estimating
How to estimate
Release planning
Estimate by analogy
Comparing a user story to others
This story is like that story, so its estimate is what that storys estimate was.
Dont use a single gold standard

Triangulate instead
Compare the story being estimated to

multiple other stories
Use the right units

Can you distinguish a 1-point story from a 2?
How about a 17 from an 18?
Use a set of numbers that make sense; I like:

1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13
Stay mostly in a 1-10 range Nature agrees:
Use 0 and if you like
Musical tones and volume are distinguishable on a logarithmic scale

Planning poker

An iterative approach to estimating Steps
Each estimator is given a deck of cards, each card has a valid estimate written on it Customer/Product owner reads a story and its discussed briefly Each estimator selects a card thats his or her estimate Cards are turned over so all can see them Discuss differences (especially outliers) Re-estimate until estimates converge
Planning pokeran example
Estimator
Round 1 Round 2
Erik
Martine
3
8
5
5
Inga
Tor
2
5
5
8
Estimate these
Product backlog item Estimate
Read a high-level, 10-page overview of agile software development in a celebrity magazine.

Read a densely written 5-page research paper about agile software development in an academic journal.
Write the product backlog for a simple eCommerce site that sells only clocks.
Recruit, interview, and hire a new member for your team. Create a 60-minute presentation about agile estimating and planning for your coworkers. Wash and wax your boss Porsche. Read a 150-page book on agile software development. Write an 8-page description of agile development for your boss.
www.planningpoker.com
Free, or I wouldnt mention it
Agenda
The right units for estimating How to estimate Release planning
Release planning
Release Planning Meeting
Release Plan
Sprint 1 Sprint 2 Sprint 3 Sprints 47
An example with velocity = 14

Sprint 1 Story A 5 Story E 1 Sprint 1 Story C Story F 3 Story D 5
Story B 8
Story A Sprint 34 5 Story H 13Story B Story I 8 5 Story C 3 Story D 5
Story F 3 Story J Story G 8 3 Story H 13 Story I 5 Story J 8
Story G 3
Story E 1
Projections based on velocity

40
30 20 10 0
Mean (Best 3) = 37 Mean (Last 8) = 33 Mean (Worst 3) = 28
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Extrapolate from velocity

Assume 5 sprints left
At our slowest velocity, well end here (5 28) At our average velocity, well end here (5 33)
At our average velocity, well end here (5 37)
Fixed-date planning
How much can I get by <date>?
Determine how many sprints you have Estimate velocity as a range
Multiply low velocity number of sprints
Count off that many points; These are Will Have items
Multiply high velocity number of sprints

Count off that many more points; these are might haves
Fixed-date planning example

Desired release date Todays date Number of sprints Low velocity High velocity 30 June
Will have
1 January 6 15 6 (monthly) 15 20
Might have
6 20
Wont have
Agenda
The right units for estimating How to estimate Release planning
Three issues
Estimating in a common unit
Sprint planning
Dependencies
Establish a common baseline

All teams should agree on story points or
ideal days
Establish a common baseline
Select a dozen or so user stories that were done recently or are on the product backlog Estimate them en masse with Planning Poker
Be careful with cross-team comparisons

When did this firm start comparing velocity? When did the yellow team figure out they were being compared?
Two approaches to sprint planning

Stagger by a day
Sprints end by a day
Helps a key resource (e.g., a product owner or architect) fully participate in many planning meetings
The Big Room

All sprints end on same day All planning is on same day and in one room Key resources shift between teams on demand
Dependencies
Critical dependencies between teams

Must be done in this order and likely to influence overall ship date
Fewer of these than you may think
Emergent dependencies
OK, were going to start on such-and-such soon. As you know we need this-and-that first.
Buffer critical dependencies

Sprint 1 Sprint 2 Sprint 3
20 points
10 points
20 points
Sprint 1
Sprint 2
Sprint 3
17 points
17 points
17 points
Rolling lookahead planning

Task Code the Test the Integrate with Code the Design the Sprint 2 Hours 8 16 5 8 4 Sprint 3 Sprint 1
After Sprint 1
Sprint 1
Code Test Design Code 8 4 4 5
Sprint 2
Sprint 3
Sprints 47
After Sprint 2
Sprint 2
Code Test Test Code 3 7 6 8
Sprint 3
Sprint 4
While planning Sprint 2, a team rolls Sprint 4 into view. They discover a dependency on another team. Sprints 57 The other team work on that item during Sprint 3.
Mike Cohn contact info

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An Introduction to Agile Estimating and Planning

Mike Cohn - background

20032007 Mountain Goat Software

Planning with multiple teams

20032007 Mountain Goat Software

How long will it take

20032007 Mountain Goat Software

Estimate size; derive duration

20032007 Mountain Goat Software

20032007 Mountain Goat Software

How long something would take if

The ideal time of a basketball game is 40 minutes Four 10-minute quarters

The elapsed time is much longer (2+ hours)

20032007 Mountain Goat Software

The bigness of a task

Influenced by How hard it is How much of it there is

Relative values are what is important:

A login screen is a 2. A search feature is an 8.

Points are unit-less

Lion Kangaroo Rhinocerus Bear Giraffe Gorilla Hippopotamus Tiger

Comparing the approaches

My ideal days cannot be added to your ideal days

Ideal days can force companies to confront time wasting activities

The problem with mixing units

As a frequent flyer, I want

Design the 30 3 20 2 60 6 40 4 20 2 Automate Test the

As a frequent flyer, I want

20032007 Mountain Goat Software

Planning with multiple teams

20032007 Mountain Goat Software

Dont use a single gold standard

Compare the story being estimated to

20032007 Mountain Goat Software

Use the right units

How about a 17 from an 18?

Use a set of numbers that make sense; I like:

Stay mostly in a 1-10 range Nature agrees:

Use 0 and if you like

Musical tones and volume are distinguishable on a logarithmic scale

Planning pokeran example

20032007 Mountain Goat Software

Read a high-level, 10-page overview of agile software development in a celebrity magazine.

20032007 Mountain Goat Software

Free, or I wouldnt mention it

20032007 Mountain Goat Software

Planning with multiple teams

20032007 Mountain Goat Software

20032007 Mountain Goat Software

An example with velocity = 14

Story A Sprint 34 5 Story H 13Story B Story I 8 5 Story C 3 Story D 5

Story F 3 Story J Story G 8 3 Story H 13 Story I 5 Story J 8

20032007 Mountain Goat Software

Projections based on velocity

Mean (Best 3) = 37 Mean (Last 8) = 33 Mean (Worst 3) = 28

20032007 Mountain Goat Software

Extrapolate from velocity

At our average velocity, well end here (5 37)

20032007 Mountain Goat Software

Determine how many sprints you have Estimate velocity as a range

Multiply low velocity number of sprints