Rainfall Analysis
Types of rainfall Description of rainfall
Rainfall analysis Hydrology Unit 2+ 3
Measurement of rainfall
Consistency check of rainfall data Estimation of missing rainfall data Rainfall characteristics in arid and semi-arid regions Variability of annual rainfall Average rainfall over an area Frequency analysis
Types of Rainfall
Convective: caused by the rising
of warm, lighter air in colder, denser surroundings. Occurs mostly in the tropics
Convective
Rainfall analysis Hydrology Unit 2+ 3
Orographic: results from lifting of air over mountain
barriers. The greatest amount of rain falls on the windward side
Cyclonic: results from the lifting
of air converging into a low pressure area, or cyclone
Wind Orographic
Description of Rainfall
Intensity: the quantity of rain falling in a given time (cm/hr, mm/hr, etc.). Intensity
Rainfall analysis Hydrology Unit 2+ 3
Duration: the period of time during which rain falls (hr, minutes, etc.).
Frequency: the expectation that a given depth of rainfall will fall in a given time (once in three years, once in five years, etc.). Magnitude: the total amount of rain falling at a point (mm) daily, monthly, annually, etc.
Rainfall
Duration
Frequency
Measurement of Rainfall
Raingauge is an instrument used for measuring the vertical depth of water from precipitation at a point.
The vertical depth of water that would accumulate on a level surface if the rainfall remains where it fell, is taken as rainfall measurement. Types of Raingauges Non-recording gauges
Rainfall analysis Hydrology Unit 2+ 3
Vertical depth
Collect rainfall
Non recording gauge Source: Linsley 1982
Collected rainfall is measured later on by measuring tube or stick
Rainfall Measurement
Recording gauges
Rainfall analysis Hydrology Unit 2+ 3
Receiver
give directly the rainfall reading
Funnel
Tipping-bucket
record continuously
Tipping bucket Reservoir
Types of Recording gauges
Receiver Measuring tube
Tipping-bucket gauge Weighing-type gauge Floating type
Outer case
Bucket
Weighing mechanism
Weighing-type
Revolving drum with chart
Pen arm Source: Linsley 1982
Rainfall characteristics in Semi-Arid and Arid Regions
Rainfall in semi-arid and arid regions
Rainfall analysis Hydrology Unit 2+ 3
results largely from convective clouds
is of short duration
is relatively high in intensity
of limited areal extent & has large variability
Variability of Annual Rainfall
General rule: The smaller the average annual rainfall, the higher is its variability.
Rainfall analysis Hydrology Unit 2+ 3
High
Low
Average Annual Rainfall
Annual Rainfall Variability
Low
High
Variability of Annual Rainfall
Annual Rainfall as Percentage of the Mean for Mekele, Ethiopia
250,0
Rainfall analysis Hydrology Unit 2+ 3
Percentage of Mean
200,0 150,0 100,0 50,0 0,0
Mean Annual
Rainfall = 452 mm/a Altitude = 2212m Latitude = 13.30 N
Longitude = 39.29 E
Years
Consistency Check of Rainfall Data
Problems with rainfall data occur due to
Rainfall analysis Hydrology Unit 2+ 3
change from rain gauge type A to rain gauge type B change in the immediate environment surrounding the gauge movement of measuring site, etc. A simple approach: Double Mass Curve
Example: Consistency check of gauge X
Gauge X is the suspect gauge.
Gauges 1, 2 , 3 are reference gauges, known to be functioning correctly. They are located in the same area as gauge X.
Consistency Check of Rainfall Data
Annual rainfall totals (mm) Year 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 Gauge X Gauge1 Gauge 2 Gauge 3 1020 980 995 1005 600 550 575 1020 960 990 1000 1002 1080 1150 1030 980 970 1040 1004 1095 1100 1040 970 980 1020 1003 1110 1050 Cumulative rainfall (mm) Mean Gauge Gauge X Gauges 1, 2, 3 1,2,3 1030 1020 1030 970 2000 2000 980 2995 2980 1020 4000 4000 1003 4600 5003 1095 5150 6098 1100 5725 7198
Rainfall analysis Hydrology
Step 1: compute cumulative rainfall for suspect gauge X compute mean annual rainfall totals & cumulate average for gauges 1, 2, 3
Double mass curve for tabulated data
Unit 2+ 3
7000
Cumulative rainfall (mm) - Station X
Step 2: plot cumulative rainfall for suspect gauge X versus cumulative rainfall for reference gauges 1, 2, 3 attempt to construct a straight a line through the data points
6000 5000 4000 3000 2000
Station move 1991 Correction factor: k = 1.0 / 0.54 = 1.85
y = 0.54 x
Slope B
Slope A
y = 1.00 x
1000 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Cumulative rainfall (mm) - Stations 1, 2, 3
Consistency Check of Rainfall Data
Annual rainfall totals (mm)
Year Gauge X Gauge 1 Gauge 2 Gauge 3 Mean Gauge 1, 2, 3
Rainfall analysis
Cumulative rainfall (mm) Gauge X 1020 2000 2995 4000 5110 6128 7191 Gauges 1, 2, 3 1030 2000 2980 4000 5003 6098 7198
Step 3:
check consistency of suspect gauge X with gauges 1, 2, 3
Hydrology Unit 2+ 3
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994
1020 980 995 1005 1110 1018 1064
1020 960 990 1000 1002 1080 1150
1030 980 970 1040 1004 1095 1100
1040 970 980 1020 1003 1110 1050
1030 970 980 1020 1003 1095 1100
if consistent, straight line with a slope 1 OK
Double mass curve for corrected data
8000
Cumulative rainfall (mm) - Station X
7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 0 2000 4000
y = 1.00 x
if change in slope, problems with rainfall data calculate correction factor k
k = slope A / slope B
Step 4: adjust erroneous data for gauge X by the correction factor k Example: corrected annual rainfall total for gauge X
6000 8000
Cumulative rainfall (mm) - Stations 1, 2, 3
Year 1992: 600 * 1.85 = 1110 mm
Estimation of Missing Rainfall Data
Methods of Estimation of Missing Data
Arithmetic Average Method Px = 1/n (P1 + P2 + ... +Pn) Px = missing rainfall data at station x
NO Is Diff. Is Diff < < 10% 10% ?
Compute % differences Diff. =|Ni-Nx|/Nx x 100
Rainfall analysis Hydrology Unit 2+ 3
Pi = rainfall data at the neighbouring station i
n = number of neighbouring raingauges Normal Ratio Method Px = 1/n (Nx/N1 x P1 + Nx/N2 x P2 +. . .+ Nx/Nn x Pn)
Normal Ratio
Px = missing rainfall data at station x
Ni= normal annual rainfall at station i n= number of neighbouring raingauges
YES Arithmetic Average
Estimation of Missing Rainfall Data
Example : Estimation of Missing Rainfall Data, Stations from Ethiopia
Station Name Hawzien Ilala Adigrat Quiha Monthly data, July, 1980 (mm) 195.7 186.5 243.3 ? Normal annual Rainfall (mm) 446 452 512 472 % Difference 5.5 4.2 8.5 _
Rainfall analysis Hydrology Unit 2+ 3
5.5 Computed
% Diff < 10 Arithmetic Average Px = 1/3 (195.7 + 186.5 + 243.3) Px = 208.5mm
Estimation of Missing Rainfall Data
Station Id. 1 2 3 4 Rainfall at one Normal annual % Difference Storm event (mm) Rainfall 107 89 122 ? 1120 935 1200 978 14.5 4.4 22.7 -
Rainfall analysis Hydrology Unit 2+ 3
Example : Estimation of Missing Rainfall Data, Data from India
% Difference > 10 Px = 95.3mm
Normal Ratio method
Px = 1/3 (978/1120 x 107 + 978/935 x 89 + 978/1200 x 122)
Average Rainfall over an Area
Rainfall analysis Hydrology Unit 2+ 3
P1
P3
P5
Average Rainfall
P2
P4 P6
Representative value for one area Used to estimate stream flow Used to compute peak discharge, etc.
Average Rainfall over an Area
1. Arithmetic Mean Method Methods of Computation:
Rainfall analysis Hydrology Unit 2+ 3
Pav = 1/n (P1 + P2 + . . . + Pn)
Pav = Average rainfall over the area Pi = Rainfall at different gauges n = Number of gauges in the area
Arithmetic Mean Method Thiessen Method Isohyetal Method
The method is used for: Flat areas Uniformly distributed gauges over the area Rain collected at different stations not varying
widely from the mean
Average Rainfall over an Area
2. Thiessen Method
Rainfall analysis Hydrology Unit 2+ 3
handles non uniformly distributed gauges makes use of weighing factors for each gauge
Step 1: Draw the area concerned to a suitable scale, showing its boundary, locations of the raingauges in the area and outside but close to the boundary
Thiessen Method : Steps
P1 P2
P4 P3
P5
P6 P7
Average Rainfall over an Area
Thiessen Method : Steps
P1 P2
Rainfall analysis Hydrology Unit 2+ 3
P4 P3
P5
P6 P7
Step 2: Join location of the raingauges to form a network of triangles
Average Rainfall over an Area
Thiessen Method : Steps
Rainfall analysis Hydrology Unit 2+ 3
P1 P2
P4 P3
P5
P6 P7
Step 3: Draw perpendicular bisectors to the triangle sides. These perpendicular bisectors form polygons around the stations.
Average Rainfall over an Area
Thiessen Method : Steps
P1 A1 A2 P2 A4 A3 P3 A6 P6 A7
Rainfall analysis Hydrology Unit 2+ 3
Step 4: Delineate the formed polygons and measure their areas using a planimeter or by converting them into smaller regular geometric shapes (i.e. triangles, squares, rectangles, etc.)
P5
P4
A5
Step 5: Compute the average rainfall using the following formula
P7
Pav =
P1xA1 + P2 xA2 +... + PnxAn A1 + A2 + .... + An
Average Rainfall over an Area
Thiessen Method : Example
Observed Rainfall(mm), Pi 10 15 20 17 25 40 12 Total Polygon Area (Sq. Km), Ai 25 125 80 90 120 115 130 685 Pi x Ai (Col 1 x Col 2) 250 1875 1600 1530 3000 4600 1560 14415
Rainfall analysis Hydrology Unit 2+ 3
P1 A1 P2 A2 P2 A4 A3 P3
P4 P4
A5 P3 A6 P6 P6 A7
P5 P5
P7
P1xA1 + P2 xA2 +... + PnxA Pav = A1 + A2 + .... + An =
14415 = 21.04 mm 685
Average Rainfall over an Area
3. Isohyetal Method Isohyet is a line joining points of equal rainfall magnitude
0 1 0 0 4
11
Rainfall analysis Hydrology Unit 2+ 3
0 0
Isohyetes
45
16 11 11
9
19 45
62
27 65
Most accurate method
Incorporates the orographic effect
All figures are in mm Monthly isohyetal map (sample)
Average Rainfall over an Area
Isohyetal Method: Steps
Rainfall analysis Hydrology Unit 2+ 3
Step 1: Draw the area under study to scale and mark rain gauges on it. Put at each of the raingauge location the recorded values of rainfall at the station, for the period within which the average is required to be determined.
Step 2: Draw the isohyetes of various values by considering the point rainfall data as guidelines and interpolating between them. Also, incorporate the knowledge of orographic effects.
Average Rainfall over an Area
Isohyetal Method: Steps Step 3: Determine the area between each pair of the isohyet lines, either by a planimeter or by converting the areas into smaller regular geometric shapes. Step 4: Calculate the average rainfall using the following formula: Pav =
Rainfall analysis Hydrology Unit 2+ 3
A1 (P1 + P2)/2 + A2 (P2 + P3)/2 + . . . + An-1(Pn-1 + Pn)/2 (A1 + A2 + . . . + An)
Pi = Value of Isohyet lines
Ai = Area between pair of isohyet lines.
Average Rainfall over an Area
Isohyetal Method: Example
Calculate the average rainfall over the area given in the figure using Isohyetal method.
Rainfall analysis Hydrology Unit 2+ 3
Pav = 103, 875.69/1,602.59 = 64.82mm
Frequency Analysis
Rainfall analysis Hydrology Unit 2+ 3
Design Rainfall:
the total amount of rain during the cropping season at which or above which the catchment area will provide sufficient runoff to satisfy the crop water requirements.
Moisture stress in plants
Damage to structures
Design Rainfall Actual Rainfall
Frequency Analysis
Rainfall analysis Hydrology Unit 2+ 3
Probability of exceedance (P): the
probability in which a certain event (rainfall) is equalled or exceeded
Exceedance Probability (P), % 100 80
Return Period (Tr) Years 1 1.25 1.33 1.5 100
Rainfall equalled or exceeded Every Year Once in 1.25 years (4 times in 5 years) Once in 1.33 years (3 times in 4 years) Once in 1.5 years (2 times in 3 years) Once in 100 years
Return period (recurrence interval),
Tr: the average interval in years within which a given event will be equalled or exceeded
75 67 1
Frequency Analysis
Empirical Method: Steps
Step 1: Obtain annual rainfall totals for the cropping season from the area of concern Step 2: Arrange the rainfall data in the descending order of magnitude Step 3: Give ranks (m) to each ordered data. Rank of 1 for the largest value and n for the smallest value, where n is the number of data points Step 4: Determine the recurrence interval Tr of each rainfall value using formula:
Rainfall analysis Hydrology Unit 2+ 3
Rank: 1
3 ... n
Tr = (n + 0.25) / (m - 0.375)
n = Number of data m = Rank
Frequency Analysis
Steps
Step 5: Compute the probability of exceedance P, P = 1/Tr = (m - 0.375) / (n + 0.25) Step 6: Plot the value of P or Tr against the corresponding magnitude of rainfall data, on probability paper, & fit a line for the plotted data Step 7: To determine the design rainfall look the corresponding value of rainfall for the exceedance probability used. For WH usually 67% is used.
Rainfall analysis Hydrology Unit 2+ 3
Frequency Analysis
Example : Frequency Analysis of Annual Rainfall
Rainfall analysis Hydrology Unit 2+ 3
The annual rainfall totals from a station, Mogadishu (Somalia), for a period of 32 years are given. Compute the annual rainfall total corresponding to 67 % & 33% probabilities of exceedance.
Annual Rainfall at Mogadishu, Somalia
Year Rainfall Year Rainfall Year Rainfall Year Rainfall 1957 484 1965 498 1973 371 1981 563 1958 529 1966 395 1974 255 1982 526 1959 302 1967 890 1975 411 1983 273 1960 403 1968 680 1976 339 1984 270 1961 960 1969 317 1977 660 1985 423 1962 453 1970 300 1978 216 1986 251 1963 633 1971 271 1979 594 1987 533 1964 489 1972 655 1980 544 1988 531
All Rainfall figures are in mm
Source: Critchley & Siegert 1991
Frequency Analysis
Example : Frequency Analysis of Annual Rainfall Steps: 1. arrange the annual rainfall values in decreasing order
Rainfall analysis Hydrology Unit 2+ 3
2. give rank, 1 to the highest and 32 for the lowest rainfall figure 3. compute the probability, p , with the given formula
Year 1961 1967 1968 1977 1972 1963 1979 1981 1980 1987 1988 R mm 960 890 680 660 655 633 594 563 544 533 531 m 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 P% 1.9 5.0 8.1 11.2 14.3 17.4 20.5 23.6 26.7 29.8 32.9 Year 1958 1982 1965 1964 1957 1962 1985 1975 1960 1966 1973 R mm 529 526 498 489 484 453 423 411 403 395 371 m 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 P% 36.0 39.1 42.2 45.3 48.4 51.6 54.7 57.8 60.9 64.0 67.1 Year 1976 1969 1959 1970 1983 1971 1984 1974 1986 1978 R mm 339 317 302 300 273 271 270 255 251 216 m 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 P% 70.2 73.3 76.4 79.5 82.6 85.7 88.8 91.1 95.0 98.1
Frequency Analysis
Example : Frequency Analysis of Annual Rainfall Steps:
Rainfall analysis Hydrology Unit 2+ 3
plot p against R on a probability paper fit the plotted points a line
p = 67%
R = 371mm Tr = 100 = 100 =1.5 years p 67
p = 33% Tr = 3 years R = 531mm
Summary
Rainfall analysis Hydrology Unit 2+ 3
A rainfall can be described by its intensity, duration and frequency Rainfall is measured either by recording or non-recording gauges Rainfall in (semi-)arid areas is mostly of short duration and high intensity
The annual variability of rainfall is high in semi-arid and arid areas
The missing rainfall data must be filled before any analysis The average rainfall over an area gives an overall idea about the catchment Frequency analysis helps to choose a certain rainfall amount at certain probability of exceedance
