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LOG-Person Type III Distribution

The document discusses two probability distributions: 1) The log-Pearson Type III distribution, which is used to model hydrologic data after converting it to logarithms. It describes how to calculate the mean, standard deviation, and skew coefficient for this distribution. 2) The extreme value type I distribution, also called the Gumbel distribution, which models the maximum values from samples. It gives the probability density function for this distribution and provides an example table of return periods and reduced variates.

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Jaire
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170 views13 pages

LOG-Person Type III Distribution

The document discusses two probability distributions: 1) The log-Pearson Type III distribution, which is used to model hydrologic data after converting it to logarithms. It describes how to calculate the mean, standard deviation, and skew coefficient for this distribution. 2) The extreme value type I distribution, also called the Gumbel distribution, which models the maximum values from samples. It gives the probability density function for this distribution and provides an example table of return periods and reduced variates.

Uploaded by

Jaire
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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LOG-PEARSON TYPE III

DISTRIBUTION
The recommend procedure for use
of the log-pearson distribution is
to convert the data series to
logarithms and compute.
3
log
3 2 3 2
) )( 2 )( 1 (
) log ( 2 ) (log log 3 ) (log
x
n n n
x x x n x n
G
o
+
=

x X x log log log =
x
K X X o + =
X
X
n
K
Mean:

Alternatively,



=IS THE STANDARD DEVIATION
n
X
x

=
log
log
1
/ ) log ( ) (log
2 2
log

=
n
n x x
x
X
o
X
K X X o + =
Also,

Standard Deviation:

Skew Coefficient:
Where:
The value of X for any probability level is computed from
modified,

1
) log (log
2
log

=

n
X X
X
o
3
log
3
) )( 2 )( 1 (
) log (log
X
n n
X X n
G
o

=

X
K X X o + =
X
K X X
log
log log o + =
The probability density function of type III is,


Where: where:
is the third moment about the
mean=
is the variance
is gamma function
is the base of napierian
logarithms

3
2
2
3
1
0
2
3
2 /
0
) 1 (
2
1
4
) 1 ( ) (

|

=
|
|
.
|

\
|
+ I
=
=
=
=
+

c e
c
a
n
c
a
c
e
a
X
X
c
cX c
3

G
6
o
2

I
e
EXTREME-VALUE TYPE I
DISTRIBUTION
Fisher and Tippett found that the distribution of the maximum(or
minimum) values selected from n samples approached a limiting
form as the size of the samples increased. When the initial
distributions within the samples are exponential, the type I
distribution is given by .
y
e
e

=1

Where:
-is the probability of a given flow being equaled or exceeded
-is the base of napierian logarithm
-is the reduced variate or is the function of probability

Where:
-is the mean of the data series
-is the standard deviation

e
y
X
y X X o ) 45 . 0 7797 . 0 ( + =
y
e
e

=1
X
X
o
Return
Period, years
Probability Reduced
Variate, y
K
1.58 0.63 0.000 -0.450
2.00 0.50 0.367 -0.164
2.33 0.43 0.579 0.001
5 0.20 1.500 0.719
10 0.10 2.250 1.300
20 0.05 2.970 1.870
50 0.02 3.902 2.590
100 0.01 4.600 3.140
200 0.005 5.296 3.680
400 0.0025 6.000 4.230
The table shows the values of K for various return
period. So when using Gringorten plotting position from
this equation or , no
correction for record length is considered necessary.
Two or more computed value of X define a straight line
on extreme- value probability paper.

1
44 . 0
+

=
n
m

44 . 0
12 . 0

+
=
m
n
T
r
| | ) 1 ln( ln = y
Gumbel was the first to suggest the use of the
extreme-value distribution for floods, and the
distribution is commonly referred to as the Gumbel
distribution. Gumbels argument for the use of this
distribution was that each year of record constituted
a simple with n=365 and the annual flood was the
maximum value from the sample. Hence, it could be
assumed that the flood case conformed to the
conditions specified by Fisher and Tippett.
SELECTION OF DESIGN
FREQUENCY
There are situation when one is concerned with the probability of a
flood occurring during specified interval of future time. For example,
what flood probabilities exist during the construction period of a
dam? The probability that the flood with an average probability
of occurrence will be exceeded exactly k times during an N-year
period is given by the binomial distribution

k
J

k k N
k
k N k
N
J

= ) 1 (
)! ( !
!
The probability of one or more exceedances in N years
is found by taking k=0 and noting that the probability of
exceedance is one minus the probability of
nonexceedance,


n
orMORE
J ) 1 ( 1
1
=
Thanks for li steni ng! ! !

God bless you all

REPORTED BY:
BRYANBONG C. ZAI LON

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