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Conditional Probability

Conditional probability is the probability that an event will occur given that another event has already occurred. Two events are independent if the occurrence of one event does not affect the probability of the other occurring. Events are mutually exclusive if the probability of both occurring is zero, meaning they cannot both happen. The document provides examples of independent and mutually exclusive events using coin flips and dice rolls to illustrate the differences between the concepts.

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Wan Nabila
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397 views

Conditional Probability

Conditional probability is the probability that an event will occur given that another event has already occurred. Two events are independent if the occurrence of one event does not affect the probability of the other occurring. Events are mutually exclusive if the probability of both occurring is zero, meaning they cannot both happen. The document provides examples of independent and mutually exclusive events using coin flips and dice rolls to illustrate the differences between the concepts.

Uploaded by

Wan Nabila
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
Available Formats
Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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8

CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY AND INDEPENDENT EVENTS.

Definition

Conditional probability is the probability that an events will occur given another event has already occurred. If A and B are two events, then the conditional probability of A given B is written as:
The event whose probability is to be determined

P( A ) B P( A B) = P(B)

; P(B) 0

The event has already occured

The probability of B given that A has already occurred is given by

P( A ) B P(B A ) = P( A )

; P( A ) 0

The definition can also be written as

P( AandB) P( A) P( B)

NOTE:

P(A B) = P(BA)

Definition

Two events A and B are said to be independent if the occurrence of A does not affect the probability of occurrence of B and vice versa. For example:

I have 2 computer A and B, suddenly computer A breakdown. I can still do my work using computer B because computer B unrelated to computer A.

Two events A and B are independent if and only if

P(A ) = P(A) P(B) B


Therefore,

P(A/B) = P(A) P(B/A) = P(B)

(A I B)= 0 and P ( B I A)= 0 if A and B are mutually exclusive If three events A,B and C are independent,then P(A B C) = P (A) P(B) P(C)

QS 026 CHAPTER 8

8.2 CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY AND INDEPENDENT EVENTS.

Given P(F) =0.3 ,P(G)= 0.4 , and P(F U G)= 0.5 , find P(G / F)

There have 15 bottled drinks.7 bottles of orange juice,3 of


which came in brown bottles and the rest in green bottles.There were 8bottles lemonade,2 in brown bottles and the rest in green. These bottles were opened one after

another in random order.Events A,B and C are defined as


follows: A: the first 2 bottles opened are brown B : the first 2 bottles opened contain lemonade C : the last 2 bottles opened are green and contain orange juice. Find values of P(A), P(C), P(C/A),P(B/A) , P(A B) where B is the event not B

QS 026 CHAPTER 8 A shop has three photocopy machines,A,B and C. Machines A,B, and

C produce 37%,42% and 21% of the total daily outputs of the shop
respectively.The percentages of spoilage by machine A,B and C are respectively 0.6%, 0.4% and 1.2%.if the management finds a

photocopy spoilt,find the probability that the copy is from


i) machine A ii) machine C

iii) machines B or C

Questions & Problems

Subject: What is difference between independent and exclusive events I am confused about independent and mutually exclusive events. Can you please provide a practical example of each? If A and B are independent then it means that the occurrence of one event has no effect on the occurrence of the other event. I think mutually exclusive also means the same. Is that right?

Answer
If

two events A and B are independent, then P[A and B] = P[A]P[B]; that is, the probability that both A and B occur is equal to the probability that A occurs times the probability that B occurs. If A and B are mutually exclusive, then P[A and B] = 0; that is, the probability that both A and B occur is zero. Clearly, if A and B are nontrivial events (P[A] and P[B] are nonzero), then they cannot be both independent and mutually exclusive.

A real-life example is the following. Consider a fair coin and a fair six-sided die. Let event A be obtaining heads, and event B be rolling a 6. Then we can reasonably assume that events A and B are independent, because the outcome of one does not affect the outcome of the other. The probability that both A and B occur is P[A and B] = P[A]P[B] = (1/2)(1/6) = 1/12. Since this value is not zero, then events A and B cannot be mutually exclusive.

An example of a mutually exclusive event is the following: Consider a fair six-sided die as before, only in addition to the numbers 1 through 6 on each face, we have the property that the even-numbered faces are colored red, and the oddnumbered faces are colored green. Let event A be rolling a green face, and event B be rolling a 6. Then P[A] = 1/2 P[B] = 1/6

as in our previous example. But it is obvious that events A and B cannot simultaneously occur, since rolling a 6 means the face is red, and rolling a green face means the number showing is odd. Therefore P[A and B] = 0.

Therefore, we see that a mutually exclusive pair of nontrivial events are also necessarily dependent events. This makes sense because if A and B are mutually exclusive, then if A occurs, then B cannot also occur; and vice versa. This stands in contrast to saying the outcome of A does not affect the outcome of B, which is independence of events.

CONCLUSION

INDEPENDENT EVENTS
The occurance of one event has no effect on the probability of the occurance of any other event. Events A and B are independent if one of the following is true: 1) P( A B) P( A)
2) P( B A) P( B) 3) P( AandB) P( A) P( B)

MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE An observation cannot fall into more than one class(category). Being in more than one cvategory prevents being in a mutually exclusive category.

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