Daily Equity Report (27JUN 2012)

Highlights Indian market

Indian equity markets up 0.12%. Nifty up 16.20 pts and settle at 5130.85. Sensex was up 61.32 pts at 16943.48. Bank Nifty up 65.50 pts at 9991.25.

Global market
European markets were down with FTSE up by 3.52 pts at 5454.17, CAC down by 2.85 pts at 3018.39 and DAX down 6.17 pts at 6126.22. Dow future up 14.00 pts at 12445.00. S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y is -1.9 M & previous -2.6M

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Market Analysis:

The 30-share BSE Sensex and the 50-share NSE Nifty tracked the global trend and ended flat on Tuesday. The two indices rose after European markets opened firm. The BSE Sensex rose 24 points to 16906 while the NSE Nifty inched up 6 points to 5121. At 3.50 pm, the Indian rupee traded at 56.98 to the US dollar gaining 3 paise over Mondays close. Markets had built in huge expectations ahead of the Reserve Bank's announcements yesterday, and fell sharply after the measures announced fell way short of expectations. Major shares traded flat since morning. Markets had built in huge expectations ahead of the Reserve Bank's announcements yesterday, and fell sharply after the measures announced fell way short of expectations. Major shares traded flat since morning.. IT stocks continued to underperform the broader markets. Infosys (-1%) and HCL Tech (0.6%)were among the laggards on the Nifty index. IT stocks have been out of favour over the uncertainty in the direction of the rupee and the global macro environment. Even as depreciated rupee level provides decent downside support, upside remains contingent on improvement in demand outlook, Kotak Securities said in a note. TCS, the largest software services company, gained 1.4 per cent. Analyst expect TCS to maintain growth in profits Bank shares rose after as the Reserve Bank of India eased restrictions on foreign flows into government securities market. Banks could benefit as they would be able to meet the credit demand for businesses in India as government looks to borrow outside India. SB I shares rose 0.6 per cent while HDFC Bank gained 1.8 per cent. Union Bank shares rose 2.6 per cent while Indusind Bank gained 1.8 per cent.

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News you can use:

In a bid to check rupee's free falling against the US dollar, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Monday hiked the limit of external commercial borrowing (ECB) by USD 10 billion. Moreover, the regulator also increased the limit of overseas investment in government bonds by USD 5 billion to USD 20 billion. European shares were called to open flat to slightly lower on Monday with Spain at the forefront of investors minds as it is expected to formally ask its euro zone partners for 100 billion euros to recapitalize its banks. Asian shares fell on Monday and the safe-haven dollar rose as concerns about faltering global growth and Europe's intractable debt crisis continued to sap investor confidence, but commodities steadied after a pummelling last week.

Fiis & Diis

CATAGERY
FII

DATE 26-Jun-2012 26-Jun-2012

BUY 1471.53 625.14

SELL 1458.5 980.19

NET 13.03 -355.05

DII

NIFTY Daily pivots

Pivot Nifty

R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4 5236.65 5197.85 5159.05 5144.90 5120.25 5106.10 5081.45 5042.65 5003.8

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Daily Nifty Gainers

COMPANY
GAIL India Grasim Ind. Tata Power Siemens Power Grid

CURR.RATE
355.05 2545.5 96 713.9 110

VOL(000)
1367.88 60.82 2214.94 66.8 1113.95

PREV.CL
343.65 2469.45 94.05 699.5 107.85

NET CHANGE
3.32 3.08 2.07 2.06 1.99

CHANGE%
11.4 76.05 1.95 14.4 2.15

Daily Nifty Losers

COMPANY
SAIL Hindustan Unil Sesa Goa Asian Paints ITC

CURR.RATE
88.05 450.7 184.65 3759 247.05

VOL(000)
3802.61 2391.32 1384.09 102.37 4085

PREV.CL
89.9 460.05 187.35 3808 250.05

NET CHANGE
-2.06 -2.03 -1.44 -1.29 -1.2

CHANGE%
-1.85 -9.35 -2.7 -49 -3

Stock in ban period

ABAN ABGSHIP COREEDUTECV ORCHID CHEM SUZLON

Stocks to watch
Bata India IDFC M&M L&T RELIANCE CAP.

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Nifty Daily Chart

INDEX Nifty

Open 5109.15

High 5134.40

Low

Close

Change

5095.60 5130.75 16.15

ANALYSIS:
Nifty looks bearish Strategy: Sell on rise Support:5080 Resistance:5175

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Bank Nifty Daily Chart

INDEX

Open

High

Low

Close 9969

Change % change 67.55 .68

BankNifty 9880

10024.8 9872

ANALYSIS
Bank Nifty looks bearish Strategy: Sell on rise Support: 9910 Resistance:10030

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Cash Scrips
Icici bank Coal India

B/S Level
B B 850 340.10

SL1 T1
842 858 338 342.10

T2
866 344.10

T3
872 346.10

Future Scrips
Cairn India

B/S Level
B S

SL1

T1

T2

T3

332.50 330.5 334.5 125 126 124

336.50 338.5 123 122

IRB Infra

Update Box: Type Cash Future Scrips Icici Voltas B/S Sell Sell Level 850 101.60 Target 842 100.60

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INVESTORS GUIDE
We head into a derivative contracts expiry week, with stock markets having climbed the conventional Wall Of Worry syndrome. The week ahead will be volatile with a Bullish Bias as sentiment has started to turn positive on the back of low oil prices and expectation of better government performance on the back of the expected rejig on key posts being filled due to Presidential elections. Markets surprisingly did not react negatively to the Status Quo on rates announced by the RBI, rating agencies downgrade threats and also ignored poor global cues to end the week up marginally. The only Joker in the Pack continues to be the Rupee, which is limiting inflows by touching new lows despite being very heavily oversold. The same was the sole reason for RBI not cutting rates and easing money supply. Also oil marketing companies in the ir fortnightly oil price revision stated the same reason for not cutting petrol prices. Rating agencies are also going overboard in threats of downgrade to Speculative grade purely due to the sharper than expected fall in the Rupee. The Nifty now seems set to test the100 dma (day moving average) at 5198 and the Right shoulder @ 5240/50, with support now @ 5074 which is the 200dma. The high Beta Bank Nifty has again started to outperform the Nifty & will test the 100dma @ 10095 & the right shoulder @ 10300. Smart money continues to buy quality with the broader market now showing positive divergence & mid cap stocks recording smart gains. This also indicates that purely by default how much Indias fundamentals tend to improve on the back of low Oil prices & which will actually see Smart Money buy stocks with a longer term horizon. High Beta sector/stocks are being chased with Defensives continuing to underperform. Globally markets continue to be Haunted by rising yields on Spanish, Italian & Portuguese debt, which is seeing equities underperform. However the sharp commodity sell off has also seen Gold lose some of its sheen & it ended near 1 month lows. The same is indicating that the relative outperformance of Gold as an asset class may be over & we could see smart money reentering Equities. The other factor being watched closely is the progress of Rains/Monsoon & the also in the US certain disruption in Oil supplies due to seasonal Tropical Storms which will see Oil prices react. With most of Europe now actually watching the Euro cup more than tracking the Euro, expect rangebound moves globally & our own markets should see some more optimism with prices/stocks seeking higher levels.

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Factors to watch:
Rupee to stop falling? Progress of rains/US storm impact on Oil Prices. Low Bond yields expecting out of turn action by RBI? Volatility ahead of F&O expiry. Government Rejig: Who will be the FM? Nifty support @ 5070 & resistance @ 5240.

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