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STUDY
EUR 21611
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Table of Contents
Page
Preface .............................................................................................................................................................................................7 Methodology .............................................................................................................................................................................9 Fuel cells and hydrogen technologies .................................................................................................. 11
Fuel cells .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 11 Technologies ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 11 Technical and socio-economic bottlenecks ......................................................................................................................... 11 Parameters for characterisation of the critical bottlenecks ........................................................................................... 13 Analysis of the critical indicators to further progress ....................................................................................................... 14 Hydrogen ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 19 Technologies ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 19 Technical and socio-economic bottlenecks ......................................................................................................................... 20 Parameters for characterisation of the critical bottlenecks ........................................................................................... 22 Analysis of the critical indicators to further progress ....................................................................................................... 22
Ocean energy ............................................................................................................................................................................... 47 Technologies ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 47 Technical and socio-economic bottlenecks ......................................................................................................................... 48 Parameters for characterisation of the critical bottlenecks ........................................................................................... 49 Analysis of the critical indicators to further progress ....................................................................................................... 50 Geothermal energy................................................................................................................................................................... 51 Technologies ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 51 Technical and socio-economic bottlenecks ......................................................................................................................... 52 Parameters for characterisation of the critical bottlenecks ........................................................................................... 54 Analysis of the critical indicators to further progress ....................................................................................................... 55 Biomass-based technologies ........................................................................................................................................... 57 Technologies ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 57 Technical and socio-economic bottlenecks ......................................................................................................................... 58 Parameters for characterisation of the critical bottlenecks ........................................................................................... 59 Analysis of the critical indicators to further progress ....................................................................................................... 60 Recommendations .......................................................................................................................................................................... 63
Use of fossil fuels in power and heat generation, including carbon dioxide capture and storage .......................................................................... 79
Use of fossil fuels in power and heat generation .............................................................................................. 79 Technologies ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 79 Technical and socio-economic bottlenecks ......................................................................................................................... 79 Parameters for characterisation of the critical bottlenecks ........................................................................................... 80 Analysis of the critical indicators to further progress ....................................................................................................... 81 Carbon dioxide capture and storage .......................................................................................................................... 85 Technologies ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 85 Technical and socio-economic bottlenecks ......................................................................................................................... 86 Parameters for characterisation of the critical bottlenecks ........................................................................................... 87 Analysis of the critical indicators to further progress ....................................................................................................... 88
Preface
Energy research is facing tremendous challenges to enhance knowledge and develop new technologies for cleaner and more efcient energy production, transport, conversion and nal use. Therefore, measuring the best state of the art of given technologies against a set of relevant parameters, identifying ambitious but realistic objectives to be attained over various time lines, and assessing the progress made over time are major issues for programme managers, researchers or decision-makers. The present study, which builds upon preliminary work undertaken within the Commission services1, intends: to better dene the present state of the art of key energy technologies in seven areas; to characterise the major bottlenecks to be overcome or the main challenges to be addressed by each technology in its future development over various time periods (short, medium and long term). This work is part of a wider effort to pave the way towards the establishment of a commonly agreed, validated and updated system of energy scientic and technological indicators and references (ESTIR). Consequently, an important feature of the study has been the active involvement of representatives from research and industry who have been invited to discuss, comment and validate the draft results of the study, before it is nalised. This quantitative method, based on quantiable and veriable indicators, can in certain cases be complemented by a more qualitative one, in order to preserve the possibility of disruptive breakthroughs emerging from any sharp discontinuity in scientic and technological progress, or from the unexpected combination of cross-cutting and transdisciplinary approaches. It is expected that the work undertaken throughout this ESTIR study will be continued on a broader basis so as to complement, rene and adapt those indicators to take into account changes and progress made by energy research and industry. It will also provide the best support for user needs in programme and project design, monitoring and assessment.
http://www.cordis.lu/eesd/src/indicators.htm
Methodology
A common methodology2 was applied to all seven sections in order to establish a consistent, welljustied analysis and to produce a report which is coherent in terms of structure and content. More specically, the following tasks have been performed in each section: a review of the previous test analysis carried out by the Commission on energy technology indicators; a screening of the technologies with respect to their R&D relevance; the description of technological and socio-economic bottlenecks through relevant parameters, and the identication of critical indicators for the characterisation of measures to further R&D progress so as to overcome the main bottlenecks. Identication of the critical and relevant sub-technologies was the rst step to be performed in an effort to pinpoint the most relevant bottlenecks and indicators for the further improvement of a specic technological sector. In a second step, the state of the art of the different technologies and the critical indicators for further progress were identied. Technologies that are already mature and show limited R&Ddriven potential for further progress have been deemed of little relevance, unless specic socioeconomic R&D issues could have a critical impact on their future deployment. In a third step, the main bottlenecks were selected. The costs per kWh of energy production turned out to be the most critical aggregated bottleneck for the majority of technologies considered within the ESTIR project. (Some very immature technologies investigated in the section crosscutting technologies constitute an exception to this rule.) Simultaneously, critical parameters were identied which best characterise the corresponding bottleneck. In a last step, indicators to future progress and specic improvement measures were assessed. Therefore, relevant indicators inuencing future progress in overcoming the barriers have been identied. However, very frequently the indicators are only of a qualitative nature, e.g. in a case where the introduction of a different material will change the characteristic properties of a technology or process, resulting in signicant progress. In such cases, the qualitative measures for further improvements are listed.
DMFC: e.g. A50 by Smart Fuel Cell GmbH; PEMFC: e.g. Nexa RM by Ballard Power System AG; SOFC: e.g. HXS 1000 Premiere by Sulzer Hexis; MCFC: e.g. Hot Module, by MTU.
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The current lifetime of the fuel cell is also seen as a bottleneck to the introduction of fuel cell types MCFC, SOFC planar design4, DMFC and AFC. The current lifetime is well below that of comparable conventional systems. The main reasons for this limitation in lifetime are degradation and corrosion processes in the cell. Lifetime directly correlates with the power density of the cells. The highest technically feasible power density of a plant results in a lower lifetime (with currently available materials). Therefore the target is to nd new low-cost and efcient materials and the optimum design for each specic application eld. The lifetime of PEMFC for passenger cars and SOFC tubular design is already sufcient. The efciency of DMFC is quite low compared to other fuel cell types and is seen as a bottleneck. In contrast, the efciency of MCFC, SOFC, PEMFC and AFC systems is considered to be sufcient. Current plants are usually not designed towards maximum efciency (it is technically feasible to achieve 55 to 60% el. efciency). The aim is rather to nd the optimal trade-off between efciency, cost, lifetime and size for each specic application eld. However, all fuel cell types have a potential for further cost reduction and efciency increase by a better integration and adaptation of ancillary components like compressors, fans, etc., which are usually not specically designed for the fuel cells requirements. The absence of common codes and standards as well as a limited public acceptance have been identied as the main socio-economic bottlenecks for both fuel cell and hydrogen technologies. Indicators for the absence of codes and standards can be elds of low or missing coverage. The total number of demonstration projects in the European Union indirectly reects the level of public acceptance. The socio-economic bottlenecks are addressed in the hydrogen section (see Table 14).
Figure 1 Market-accepted fuel cell cost and estimated market introduction time for different application elds.
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For SOFC two different concepts exist, the planar and the tubular design, each with different properties and research emphasis. They are therefore considered separately in this report.
2004
Target
Target year
SOFC (tubular design, stationary) source [5] Investment cost (100 kW system) Lifetime (operation) Efciency (system) > 10,000 20,000-70,000 45 1,500 40,000-80,000 45-55 2015 2015 2015
PEMFC (mobile, passenger car) source [6] Investment cost (system) Lifetime (operation) Efciency (system) DMFC (portable) source [4, 7,8] Investment cost Lifetime (operation) Efciency (system) 10,000-100,000 < 1,000 20 -30 3,000-5,000 1,000-5,000 30-35 2007 2007 2007 2,000 > 8000 45 200 > 8000 45 2010 -
AFC (smaller scale applications) source [9] Investment cost (system) Lifetime (operation) Efciency (system) 11,000-15,000 2000 60 < 1,000 60 -
[7] Motorola Laboratories 2002 [8] SRA 2005 [9] Asrtis Energi Inc 2005
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System
Investment cost
Simplication of stack design and fuel preparation (reduction of material and size) (Michelin 2004)
System
Adaptation to other fuels/ increase of fuel exibility e.g. to synthesis gases from the thermal gasication of residues (MTU 2004b) Reduction of temperature and increase of area-related power density 2004 Operating Temperature [C] Area related power density [W/cell] 650 700 target 620630 800 target year 2007 2007 A reduced operating temperature can considerably increase the current lifetime. On the other hand, lower temperatures result in lower efciency, due to reduced reactions. An important development target is therefore to activate the electro-chemical reactions in the cell in order to get the desired power at lower temperatures.
System
Stack
Lifetime
Reduction of bipolar plate corrosion, and carbonate depletion/ degradation, increase of mechanical stability and catalyst activity, prevention of catalyst toxication (MTU 2004a/b)
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Table 4 Critical indicators to further progress SOFC, planar design, stationary applications
Technology component Stack Parameters of bottlenecks Investment cost Critical indicators to further progress Development of new electrolyte materials with good conductibility at lower temperatures and reduction of electrode thickness 2004 T [C] Anode thickness [m] Cathode thickness [m] 800 10 target 600-700 5-10 target year 2010 2015 Comments The reduction of temperature for SOFC is desirable as high temperatures imply restrictions with respect to plant design and materials. Lower temperatures however reduce the conductibility of the currently used electrolyte (Siemens Westinghaus 2004). Recently the reduction of operating temperatures from 950 to 800 C for SOFC with a planar design has been achieved by scientists from the Forschungszentrum Jlich, Germany. However further reduction is still feasible and desirable (FZ Jlich 2004a/b). One possible way to further improve system properties and lower the operating temperature is by using thinner electrolyte lms. System Investment cost Optimisation of component and system design (FZ Jlich 2004b) Basic research is necessary for system development. So far research is limited to system components (FZ Jlich 2004b). The start-up and cooling down time for high temperature fuel cells ranges from 1 to 10 hours for small and large systems respectively (slow heating up and cooling down is needed to avoid cracking of brittle components); this requirement is problematic for many applications. For the same reason the number of thermal cycles between room and operating temperatures is limited to typically 20-100 cycles for the life of a fuel cell, depending on the fuel cell type and application. This again is a bottleneck for certain applications due to the fact that the fuel cell has to be kept at the operation temperature even when power is not needed.
50
25
2015
System
Lifetime
Increase of number of thermal cycles and reduction of start-up and cooling down time (Large stationary applications, 250 kW) 2004 Number of thermal cycles* [times] Start-up and cooling down time [h] 50 target target year 50
6-8
3-4
< 2010
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Critical indicators to further progress Improve redox-stability of the anodes and adopt gasket materials to uctuating temperatures (FZ Jlich 2004b)
Comments If the oxygen or fuel gas supply is cut due to maintenance work or disturbances, the fuel cell will be considerably damaged and its lifetime is reduced. The nickel at the anodes oxidises and gaskets fail due to the uctuating temperatures (thermal cycling). This is the major bottleneck of SOFC with planar design (FZ Jlich 2004b).
Lifetime
Develop material which do not react at their interfaces (FZ Jlich 2004b)
Table 5 Critical indicators to further progress SOFC, tubular design, stationary applications
Technology component System Parameters of bottlenecks Investment cost Critical indicators to further progress Develop an optimal design of the plant (balance of plant) (Siemens Westinghaus 2004) Comments Peripheral components like fans and compressors contribute considerably to the overall cost and also consume energy. The cost for those components will not go down as they are already commercial. Therefore the target is to develop an optimised design which needs smaller and less peripheral components (Siemens Westinghaus 2004). The reduction of temperature for SOFC is desirable as high temperatures imply restrictions with respect to plant design and materials. Lower temperatures however reduce the conductibility of the currently used electrolyte (Siemens Westinghaus 2004).
System
Investment cost
Development of new electrolyte materials with good conductibility at lower temperatures 2004 T [C] 9001,000 target 800 target year 2015
(Siemens Westinghaus 2004) Investment cost Improvement of cell geometry (at, compact tubes) promises a higher power density (High power density cells: HDP-cells). 2004 Power density [mW/cm] 200 target 400 target year 2015
(Siemens Westinghaus 2004) Dependent on the application the number of thermal cycles can be a bottleneck for SOFC (tubular design). For stationary industrial applications 100 thermal cycles are currently possible without signicant degradation. This is considered to be sufcient. For other applications, however (e.g. on-board power supply), this issue needs to be improved. The start-up and cooling down time is strongly dependent on the plant size. For large plant as for stationary industrial applications the start-up and cooling down time is 12 to 24 hours, which is sufcient for this application eld. For smaller applications (e.g. on-board power supply) the time is shorter but can still be a bottleneck (Siemens Westinghaus 2005).
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(NedStack 2005) Reduction of membrane cost and thickness 2004 Membrane cost [/m] Membrane thickness [m] Bipolar plates Investment cost target target year
(NedStack 2005) Reduction of bipolar plates cost 2004 Bipolar plates cost [/m] 200 target <5 target year 2010
MEA
Investment cost
(NedStack 2005) Increase of the activity of the catalyst and reduction of platinum content of MEA 2004 Share of active platinum at total platinum content [%] Platinum content [mg/ cm] (NedStack 2005) 25-40 target 95 target year 2010
0.45
0.225
2008
In current fuel cells more than half of the platinum is inactive. The major goal is therefore to increase catalyst activity. This will result in higher power density and a reduced overall platinum content. However the reduction of platinum is not seen as a dominant research topic as platinum will be recycled and reused.
Stack
Investment cost
Improvement of system power density 2004 System power density [kW/ m] (NedStack 2005) 8 target 10-12 target year 2007
A higher system power density will be achieved by an optimised system design and a reduced amount of materials used. System power density can be increased with higher temperatures or higher pressure. An increase in temperature and pressure, however, would demote currently applied materials quicker, resulting in a reduced lifetime. Therefore the optimal trade-off between temperature, pressure, power density, size and lifetime has to be found and new materials have to be developed.
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Critical indicators to further progress Development of low-cost, high-volume manufacturing processes especially for bipolar plates and membranes (Proton Motor 2004, US DOE 2003)/
Comments
PEMFC are also suitable for residential stationary applications. In this context the integrated reforming of natural gas and system-stability is a major research topic.
(FZ-Jlich, 2004b) Development of new membrane materials with reduced methanol and water diffusion and remaining high proton conductibility, e.g. composite membranes 2004 Methanol cross-over [%] 10-30 target <5 target year 2010
(FZ-Jlich 2004b)
In order to improve DMFC, research on new membranes which allow only a low permeation of methanol is the most important task. Currently-used membranes need to absorb water in order to keep its optimal proton conductibility. As methanol and water are chemically quite similar, the membranes in the DMFC also absorb methanol, which permeates through the membrane and leads to a reduced FC voltage and blocks the cathodic catalyst, which reduces the maximal possible amperage. Furthermore it causes fuel losses and requires a costly treatment of exhaust gas, where methanol is regained and or burnt catalytically (FZ-Jlich 2004a).
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System
Efciency
Reduction of specic volume and weight e.g. by better integrating peripheral components into the system and by developing an optimal design. 2004 Volumetric 10-100 system power density [W/l] 10-100 Gravimetric system power density [W/kg] (FZ Jlich 2004b) target target year
100-200 2007
100-200 2007
System
Efciency
Improvement of water management, development of a closed water circuit (FZ Jlich 2004b).
A self-sustaining system operation requires a closed water circuit. Water on the cathode side needs to be led back to the anode side. So far this has not been achieved. Furthermore, water on the cathode side blocks oxygen transport and leads to reduced efciency.
Hydrogen
Technologies
Annual production and use of hydrogen is 600 billion Nm, mainly for industrial purposes (ammonia/ methanol synthesis, oil renement). In the rst part of the 20th century all gas supplies were based on town gas, a coal gas containing more than 50% hydrogen, and so several technologies for hydrogen production and handling are known and well developed. However, an energy economy using hydrogen as a main energy carrier in all parts of daily life is quite challenging. The requirements for energy efciency, cost, safety and environmental concerns are high and new solutions have to be found. Hydrogen applications in the mobile and portable sector, for example, require efcient, lightweight and compact storage systems allowing reasonable coverage. In the long term the target is to produce hydrogen from renewable energy sources. The renewable potential for hydrogen production from biomass or renewable electricity, however, is limited in the short and mid term. Therefore the properties of innovative renewable hydrogen production technologies 6 such as solar thermo-chemical hydrogen production , biophotolysis or fermentation need to be investigated. With respect to carbon emissions, CO2 capture and storage in the context of fossil hydrogen production will probably play an important role. From the technological point of view pre-combustion carbon sequestration in the context of fossil hydrogen production is well known
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and well developed as it is a standard step in the production process . Table 9 shows a selection of hydrogen technologies in commercial, demonstration and R&D states. The focus in this study is limited to the technologies typed in bold.
* **
If hydrogen is produced from fossil fuels, whether through reforming, partial oxidation or gasication, the result is a syngas which contains H2 and CO as main components. Shifting the CO present in the gas to CO2 results in a ow consisting mainly of hydrogen and carbon dioxide. For hydrogen production this ow is split between a hydrogen ow and a ow consisting mainly of CO2. Before the CO2 can be compressed, transported and stored it needs to be dried and other components need to be separated out. The methods depend on the types of processes for CH4, N2 (in particular in air-blown partial oxidation and gasication processes) and other components, for example CO and H2. However these steps are independent from hydrogen production and are addressed in the section Carbon dioxide capture and sequestration. It is unclear if photo-electrolysis will exceed the efciency of an integrated system of PV and electrolysis. The capital and maintenance cost might remain higher as electricity is more easily collected than gases which require additional cover and sealing of the device. Basic research is required in order to explore the viability of the solution (SRA 2005). NGSA (natural gas assisted steam electrolysis) promises overall efciencies of up to 80% by using the oxygen at the anode-side directly for partial oxidation of natural gas. This technology is still at laboratory stage and needs basic research (SKH2 2004). Complex hydrides (e.g. LiBH4 or Al(BH4)3) represent a very interesting and challenging new hydrogen storage material. Volumetric and gravimetric storage density promise to exceed that of gaseous, liquid or metal hydride storage systems. However, very little is known about the stability, the sorption kinetics and the reversibility, and basic research is needed to understand the interaction of hydrogen in solid-state materials and identify suitable materials for hydrogen storage (SRA 2005, Zttel 2004).
10
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bonded and hydrogen released. In a second step oxygen is released from the metal oxides at temperatures of 1200 to 1300C. The high temperatures can be provided by concentrated solar radiation (EU project Hydrosol) or by nuclear reactors. The main bottleneck of the technology at this stage is the high cost for hydrogen production and the long-term durability of the metal oxide coating. High temperature electrolysis is in the stage of basic research. By making use of an external source of heat such as concentrated solar or nuclear reactors, it is possible to increase the electrical efciency far beyond that of conventional electrolysis. Besides high cost, the major bottleneck of the technology is the short lifetime due to degradation processes. For gaseous hydrogen storage, accredited 700 bar tank concepts are available (e.g. from Quantum Technology, California). The tanks consist of resin-drained carbon bres on a steel, aluminium or plastic vessel (liner). The bottleneck of this technology is its very high cost. More than 80% of the tank system costs are currently related to the material cost of the tank, while manufacturing has only a minor effect on the total cost. Carbon bres, the main and most expensive material of the tank, are currently fabricated in Japan, predominantly for high-prot niche markets (e.g. golf). The interest for mass production with lower prot margins seems to be low in Japan and in Europe very little is known about their material properties, fabricating processes or composite structure design. This leads to restricted availability of the material and high cost. Therefore R&D is especially needed for material research on carbon bres (Opel 2004). The main bottleneck for liquid hydrogen storage is also cost. Hydrogen is stored in stainless steel tanks with super insulation (double walls, vacuum, aluminium foil). The applied materials are quite cheap compared to pressure storage tanks. The cost driver for liquid hydrogen storages is the fabrication process, which is normally manual. Currently the fabrication process is approximately 60% of the total cost. An automated process for the application of the insulation, for example, could reduce costs considerably. Another bottleneck of the technology is boil-off. A tank concept can either be optimised towards a long autonomy (the time where no boil-off occurs) or towards a low (but constant) boil-off (Opel 2004, Linde Gas AG 2004). Hydrogen storage in metal hydrides (e.g. LaNiH6, Mg2NiH4, TiFeH2) is a well-developed technology with many advantages compared to gaseous and liquid hydrogen storage (high volumetric density, no losses, no safety risks). The bottlenecks of the technology are high cost and weight, especially in the context of transport applications. Parameters describing these bottlenecks are material cost and gravimetric density. The main research activity is therefore aimed at the exploration of new lightweight and cheap materials with similar properties (HERA 2004). The absence of common codes and standards as well as a limited public acceptance are identied as the main socio-economic bottlenecks for both fuel cell and hydrogen technologies. Indicators for the bottleneck absence of codes and standards can be elds of low or missing coverage. The total number of demonstration projects in the European Union indirectly reects the level of public acceptance (see Table 14).
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Thermo-chemical hydrogen production source [1] Hydrogen production cost c/kWh Long-term durability (operational hours during sunshine only) High temperature electrolysis, source [2] 11 Hydrogen production cost Investment cost Lifetime
11
c/kWh /kW h
100 1,000
400 40,000
Gaseous hydrogen storage (700 bar), source [3, 4] Investment cost (tank system, 5kg H2 storage) Material cost Liquid hydrogen storage, source [3, 4] Investment cost (tank system, 5 kg H2 storage) Boil-off Autonomy Metal hydrides, source [5, 6, 7] Investment cost (tank system, 5 kg H2 storage) Material cost (alloy) Gravimetric density * political target [1] DLR 2005 [2] EDF 2005 [3] Opel 2004 [4] Linde Gas AG 2004 [5] Zttel 2004 [6] HERA 2004 /kg %/d d /kgH2 mass %
20-200
12
10,00050,000 0.7
13
11
Due to the early stage of development neither complete system costs nor hydrogen production costs can be estimated. Costs are strongly dependent on material quality. 20 /kg refers to standard carbon bres, whereas current maximum consolidated carbon bres cost around 200 /kg. After 2 or 3 days autonomy.
12
22
13
50,000 2010
14 15
Net power for reactions (in the receiver). Estimation: plant capacity: 70 MW solar hydrogen production, 2 Mio kg/a.
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System
Investment cost
Increase of electrical efciency (Electricity to hydrogen) 2005 Efciency [%] 90 target 100 target year 2008 (laboratory) 2013 (prototype) (EDF 2005)
System
Investment cost
Increase of power density 2005 Power density [mA/ cm] (EDF 2005) 300 target 1,0002,000 target year 2008 (lab.) 2013 (protot.)
Electrodes
Investment cost
Reduction of electrolyte thickness without degradation of lifetime 2005 Electrolyte thickness [m] (EDF 2005) 50-200 target 10 target year > 2008 (laboratory) > 2013 (prototype)
The idea is to have a metalsupported cell (anode/ electrolyte/ cathode) instead of an electrolyte-supported cell (1st generation cells) or anode-supported cells (2nd generation cells). This makes possible thin electrolytes for high performance and low quantities of expensive ceramic materials and nickel because all three layers of the cell (anode/ electrolyte/ cathode) are applied as layers on a cheaper metal support. However, for this to work, lower working temperatures are needed to prevent degradation caused by corrosion of the metal (EDF 2005).
System
Investment cost
24
Investment cost
Scale-up: Increase the size of the electrolysis cells and stack 2005 Cell size [cm] 25 target 2500 target year > 2008 (laboratory) > 2013 (prototype) Stack power 0.1 [NmH2/h] 7000 > 2010 (laboratory) > 2015 (prototype) (EDF 2005)
Electrodes
Lifetime
Prevent degradation processes at the electrodes 2005 Electrode degradation [%/1000h] (EDF 2005) > 10 target < 0.1 target year > 2010 (laboratory) > 2015 (prototype)
High pressure storage Development of low-cost, strong and light carbon bre materials and bre reinforced composites in Europe (Opel 2004) Development of automated fabrication processes. The development and research of carbon bres can bring about lower material cost and improved properties.
Insulation
Boil-off
Development of novel insulation and tank concepts (e.g. insulation with liquid air or nitrogen). Explore the properties of cheap lightweight metals (Zttel 2004, HERA 2004).
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System technology
Commercial
Demonstration
R&D
Note: There are also commercial applications for thin lm amorphous, CIS and CdTe solar cells, but they represent a small share in the market.
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Generally there is also the term multicrystalline silicon used for this cell type in order to distinguish this cell type from the poly-crystalline silicon feedstock to the solar (and the electronics) industry. CIS: copper-indium-diselenide solar cell. There are variants of this cell type, for example the copperindium/gallium-selenide/sulphide solar cell (CIGS).
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processes using toxic substances pose a problem, such as cyanides and other toxic substances used in the CIGS manufacturing process. Also tin (Sn) and lead (Pb) present a problem due to their toxicity. Feedstock availability: limited availability of silicon feedstock could be a strong bottleneck for further implementation of crystalline silicon solar cells in the future. Availability of other resources: scarcity of resources like silver (for contacts) and indium (for CIS/CIGS) could complicate large-scale implementation. Difcult system integration: in the built environment it is often difcult to integrate PV systems due to poor interchangeability between PV elements and conventional building elements (power roofs, power facades, combination of solar heating and photovoltaic). This bottleneck is difcult to quantify, however balance-of-system (BOS) costs for mounting can be considered a proxy for this bottleneck.
The major technical and economic bottleneck for system technologies are related to the: Balance of system components. The main parameters describing this bottleneck are cost (BOS cost), lifetime and reliability. All three are mainly an issue for inverters, as well as integration in the built environment. The efciency of solar cells is crucial not only for module manufacturing costs per watt-peak but also for lower system costs (because area-related BOS-costs are reduced) and allows for efcient use of scarce or expensive space, which may become an issue in densely populated regions. BOS costs are also strongly inuenced by whether electricity storage is required (stand-alone application) or not (grid-connected application).
Figure 1 Price development of grid-connected PV-generated electricity versus utility price of electricity. Calculations based on a turnkey price of a PV system (subsidies excluded) of 13 / Wp in 1990 and 8 /Wp in 2000 and on 1-sun insolation of 900 h/year in Germany and 1800 h/year in southern Europe. Assumed is an annual price decrease of a PV system of 5% during 2000-2040, identical as the price decrease observed during 1990-2000
Sources: PV TRAC (2004), Hoffmann (2004)
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In the following, the main bottlenecks high electricity generation costs of PV technology and balance of system components for system technologies will be analysed more in detail with respect to the parameters characterising the bottleneck as well as indicators for the further progress.
unit
2004
5 years
10 years
> 15 years
35 12
4)
11
10-20 2) 20 3) 10 > 80 3)
11
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Parameters characterising the bottleneck electricity generation cost Thin lm: amorphous Si Electricity generation cost Module efciency Loss in initial cell efciency 7) Thin lm: CdTe Electricity generation cost Module efciency Thin lm: CIS Electricity generation cost Module efciency Balance of system components Cost of inverters Reliability of inverters: mean time to failure Lifetime inverters Integration in built environment
unit
2004
10 years 10 -
> 15 years > 10-20 3) 10 3) -13 6) 10 > 10-20 3) 15 4) > 10-20 3) 15 4) 200 20 20 0.3
Notes for Table 2 1) Electricity production cost: grid-connected costs (i.e. excluding costs for batteries). Costs are provided for a sunny (1800 h/year full sunshine hours) and a large volume purchase (> 500 kWp system) at the lower end of the range, and for a cloudy location (900 h/year full sunshine hours) and a small volume purchase (2 kWp system) at the high end of the cost range. The cost degression assumed is 4%/year which was the historically observed degression for 1995-2004. 2) Source: Hoffmann (2004) 3) Source: Werner (2005) 4) Target from EPIA Roadmap (EPIA (2004)) 5) Overall market share of single crystalline, multi crystalline and ribbon silicon technologies in 2003 (Werner [2004 c]) 6) Source: Goetzberger (2004) 7) Triple junction amorphous solar cells stabilise after three months at around 10% losses. Single junction devices may lose 25% and more.
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Table 3 Most critical bottlenecks and indicators to further progress Crystalline silicon wafer technology
Technology component Wafer production Parameters of bottlenecks module cost Measures and critical indicators to further progress Further development of alternative silicon production process like EFG (ribbon technology)18 2003 Silicon consumption [t/MWp] (Source: EPIA 2004) Wafer module cost Critical indicators for smaller wafer thickness: - need for improved wire saw technique using thinner wires [EPIA (2004)] - development of metallisation and interconnection techniques in order to be able to handle more fragile (thinner) cells [Novem (2000)] Development of wafer thickness 2004 Wafer thickness [m] (source: EPIA 2004) Cells efciency Higher cell efciencies by improvements in [DTI (2001)]: - process control - front contact shadowing (mono-c) - hydrogen passivation (multi-c-Si) - back surface modication - need for light trapping and surface passivation [Novem (2000)] Module electricity production cost Decrease of production costs by [Novem (2000)]: - increase of plant size (e.g. from typical 10 MWp/year to typical 50 MWp/year) - process integration, e.g. sealing and framing - develop alternatives for batch-type production processes like soldering and wet chemical cleaning Higher efciency results in lower electricity generation costs (/kWh) and occupation of less space. 300 2010 180 2020 100 Thick layers result in poor use of material. 14 2005 12 2010 10 Comments Loss of material during production process, especially due to cutting of ingots with wire saws.
Table 4 Most critical bottlenecks and indicators to further progress III-V technology
Technology component Concentrator Parameters of bottlenecks Costs concentrator systems Measures and critical indicators to further progress Development of low-cost solar cells for use in mid-range concentrations (200-500 suns) Comments Costs of optical and tracking systems are relatively high. Unavailability of low-cost solar cells for use in mid-range concentrations (200500 suns). Higher throughput results into lower electricity generation costs (/kWh).
Cell
Layer growth
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Although the idea of edge-dened lm-fed growth (EFG) technology dates from the 1980s, EFG solar cells did not enter production. This has changed in recent years however: RWE Schott Solar GmbH produces several MW of solar cells based on EFG technology once developed at Mobil Solar. Another producer of the ribbon technology for large-scale cell manufacturing is Evergreen Solar. The French company Solarforce plans to start production of thin 150 m wafers using an innovative crystalline silicon ribbon technology in 2005 (see http://www.photon-magazine.com/news/news_2004-06_eu_feat_Solarforce. htm). Solar cell efciency from this process is currently 14-15%.
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Table 5 Most critical bottlenecks and indicators to further progress Thin lm technology
Technology component Cell Parameters of bottlenecks Efciency / production process Measures and critical indicators to further progress For thin lm crystalline Si technologies in general [Werner (2005)]: grain boundary passivation nano-crystalline lms: growth of lms with 110 texture light trapping increase of deposition/crystallisation speed single crystalline lms: module fabrication For high stabilised efciencies of a-Si research is needed regarding [Novem (2000)]: material structure on atomic and nano scales nature and control of defects in pure and alloyed materials, especially behaviour and role of H, and doping and carrier mobility In case of tandem structures research is needed for [Novem (2000)]: optimal thickness and doping proles of the different layers to maximise the current and minimise the light-induced degradation (Stbler-Wronski effect) For increasing CIS efciency research is needed on contact enhancement [DTI (2001)] development of wide band gap materials such as CuInS2 [Klenk (2000)] increase of electrical homogeneity [Werner (2005)] decrease of shunting [Werner (2005)] homogeneous Na supply from glass substrate module stability theoretical understanding of grain boundaries in CIGS For increasing CdTe efciency research is needed on contact enhancement [DTI (2001)], point defects (deep-level impurities) grain boundary passivation [Novem (2000)] Comments Efciency is still low compared to crystalline silicon.
Toxicity Scarcity of indium Module cost High-throughput deposition process (c-Si). Research required on new deposition techniques like hot-wire chemical vapour deposition and cascade arc deposition [Novem (2000)] Optimisation of light trapping to allow for thinner layer Standardisation of production equipment; more use of demonstrated manufacturing technologies from other industries Optimisation of production process Currently expensive components like In, Ga and Se are used. Long deposition time for c-Si layer.
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Balance of system (BOS) components Inverter reliability and lifetime is a key issue for the annual electricity output from a PV system, in particular for thin-lm PV systems with proportionally higher shares of BOS. Costs of accumulators form a substantial part of the overall costs of a stand-alone PV system (up to 30%).
Table 6 Most critical bottlenecks and indicators to further progress Balance of system components
Technology component Inverter Inverter Parameters of bottlenecks Reliability Lifetime Measures and critical indicators to further progress Increase of reliability due to standardisation and optimised inverter design Increase of lifetime by optimised inverter design (based on thermal analysis) Inverter lifetime is 5 - 10 years. Increase of lifetime might result into substantial increase of costs. Costs of accumulator can account for 30% of total system costs of a stand-alone PV system. Battery lifetime is 3 - 10 years. Difcult to improve lead-acid battery. Increase of lifetime might result into substantial increase of costs. Comments
Accumulator
Costs
Reduction of investment costs of accumulator (per kWh capacity): 2000 Investment cost [/ kWh capacity] 80-120 2005 65-100
Accumulator
Lifetime
(source: EUREC [2002], PVNET [2004]) Development of new battery types and new energy storage systems with longer lifetime
Mounting structure
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Wind energy
Technologies
Wind energy is a secondary form of solar energy. Wind turbines transform the kinetic energy of air currents into mechanical energy, which can be used in many ways to generate electricity, for example, in irrigation, drainage or other applications. The current standard application is the conversion of wind energy into electricity, mainly in parallel operation to central grids. Other applications e.g. in isolated grids, remote power supplies, for water pumping or desalination are within the scope of technical appliances as well. Wind energy technologies are in the stage of commercial applications for about 20 years. The following technologies will be considered in this section: Horizontal axis wind energy converters (HAWT) Medium- to large-sized turbines (0.2MW 5 MW) Onshore and offshore applications
Onshore HAWT 0.2 2.5 MW ~ 40 GW installed capacity online worldwide. Growth rate (1999 2003): ~ 26% [EWEA] Technology
Commercial
Demonstration
R&D
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and service of a huge number of large wind turbines will be a challenge, especially for offshore applications. New service and maintenance concepts have to be developed. Technology risk: Due to the continuous up-scaling of turbine models there is a lack of long-term operational experiences. The reliability of main components (blades, gearboxes, generators) has to be improved. With current technology it cannot be guaranteed that the turbines will reach their projected lifetime. Gear box and drive train transmissions in particular need better understanding and improved simulation and design tools. Dispatchability: wind energy as is is not despatchable. The power duration characteristics vary with regional wind regimes. Integration into the structure of present supply systems requires improvement of tools for short- and medium-term prognoses of wind power, which are in demonstration phase at present. In future a partial remote control (P, cos phi) of wind turbines / wind farms by grid operators will be implemented in order to improve grid compatibility and to support and stabilise the grid in case of faults. Grid: The transmission capacities of electrical grids are limited or insufcient in order to transport energy from remote areas to the load centres. Grid access is partially restricted. Public acceptance: impacts of wind energy on society are related to noise, visual disturbance of landscape, land use, bird life, electromagnetic interference and the life cycle of energy consumption. The cost of electricity produced by wind turbines depends on many frame conditions and assumptions. Figure 1 shows the future development of wind turbine economics until 2010 for different scenarios. Initial costs for medium-sized turbines at a medium quality wind site is 5 to 6 cent/kWh. Depending on the assumptions of future growth rates, learning rates and the corresponding times for each doubling of installed capacity, the electricity costs are expected to decrease to values of 4 to 5.5 cent/kWh by 2010 (Morthorst 2004).
Figure 1 Using experience curve to illustrate the future of wind energy economics until 2010 (P.E. Morthorst 2004)
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Table 2 Main parameters of physical indicators and their limits (onshore installations)
Physical dimensions Rated power Hub height Rotor diameter Blade length Max. chord Blade mass Blade mass/diameter Unit MW m m m m t kg/m Achieved 5 125 126 61.5 4.6 17.7 141 Barriers, assuming extrapolation of present technologies ~ 10 12 n.a. 155 175 76 86 25 35 170 190
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Parameters Electricity costs cent/kWh O&M cost cent/kWh Lifetime [years] Dispatchability Annual capacity factor [%] Power duration of interconnected systems (hours per year) at 75% load at 50% load at 25% load
Present 58 n.a. 10 20 15 35
5 years -
5 10 years 34 20 -
> 15 years -
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Parameters of bottlenecks Present design and weight of drive train. Material: steel, cast steel Mass, weight, price
Critical indicators to further progress mass/power (kg/MW) mass/torque (kg/Nm) The drive train torque load is one of the key design factors of wind turbines. Optimisation of drive train direct drive by use of multi pole synchronous generators or traditional drive train gearbox couplings and asynchronous generator. Control of blades and control of rotor speed enables the designer to reduce torque peaks in the transmission. Lower component prices become available. Lower loads on rotor and transmission leaves room for weight reduction of support structure: machine frame, tower, foundation. (BTM, 2000).
Comments The reliability of drive-trains for a traditional WTG concept (with speed increasing gear and a fastrunning generator) needs to be improved. There are too many problems with the gear transmission, whether it is hidden forces from short transients in the electric grid or a combination of insufcient lubrication, wrong principles of use of roller bearings. There is a need for a better understanding of that and subsequent improved calculation tools for the gear design (Madsen, 2004). Availability and price of light weight materials with excellent physical properties, e.g. compounds to manufacture components.
Generator
Mass of generator Availability of cost effective materials for permanent magnet generators (PMG) Voltage level
Mass/power (kg/MW)
Efforts to bring the physical dimension/weight of a multi poled generators down, to make them competitive to the traditional drivetrain with mechanical gears. Material for magnets to the PMG solution seems to be a barrier, not only price wise, but also the supply of magnets seems to be problem if it becomes widely used (Madsen, 2004). A critical indicator is the level of penetration in the electricity system, without harming the system as a whole. Improved focus on grid compatibility is the answer to this challenge. This challenge is increasing along with increased penetration in some EU member states (Madsen, 2004). At present O&M cost is increasing with lifetime. The average O&M cost in the project lifetime cannot be foreseen. The target is to keep the total O&M cost between 0.561.12 cent /kWh*) as an average value over the entire lifetime of 20 years (BTM, 2002). *) avg. conv. rate (2001): 1 USD = 1.116 EUR (www.oanda.com)
Grid integration
Capability of grid for access of RES, Cost of grid extension, Power prediction
O&M
39
Parameters of bottlenecks Price of electricity for project lifetime. Lifetime Mean time between failures (MTBF)
Critical indicators to further progress /kWh This depends on: turbine price (/kW) additional cost for grid, civil works, approvals, etc. (/kW) interest (%) for capital land rent (/kW, /kWh, /unit) O&M cost (/kW, /kWh) Insurance (/kW, /kWh) Electricity supply (/kW, /kWh) taxes (/kW, /kWh) etc.
Comments The long-term electricity price of WE projects includes all improvements of subsystems mentioned above. However, this depends on various technical and nancial parameters (price, interest, wind resources, etc.) which can vary widely for different regions and points of time. Many materials of components e.g. steel, copper, etc. are linked to trends in the world market and may affect forecasts signicantly. For wind power the most critical indicator(s) are cost/unit of electricity and lifetime. A cost per unit of, say 3-3.5 cent/kWh, along with maintaining a 20 years lifetime for all major component in a wind turbine could be a relevant target for the technical development (Madsen, 2004).
Offshore applications Wind turbines for offshore applications have to be adapted to a harsh maritime environment. Concerning design, many of the barriers mentioned for onshore turbines (weight, cost) can be applied directly to the design properties and challenges of offshore turbines. However, compared with onshore turbines this is a partial redesign of the turbines, not only due to the corrosive atmosphere but also for the different loads and forces to which they are exposed. Physical limits [CA-OWEE]: distance >> 5 km from shore water depth: up to 40m North Sea: large tidal range, water depth Baltic Sea: ice and ice oes Mediterranean: sea bed slope, water depth
Type of support structure and foundation depends on water depth, wave height, ice drift, slope of seabed etc.
Price per unit and technical specications. E.g. min/max/optimal water depth, max. slope
40
Service, O&M
/kWh MTBF Max. wave height for service boats, Max. wind speed for service helicopters. Km MVA /MVA
Service and O&M of offshore turbines will be difcult to handle. Landing on offshore turbines by service boat or helicopter is dependent on wave height and wind speed. Improved equipment for access to offshore foundation platforms and equipment which is less affected by waves is needed (Madsen, 2004). A critical indicator is the level of penetration in an electricity system, without harming the system as a whole. Improved focus on grid compatibility is the answer. The problem/challenge is increasing along with increased penetration in some EU member states.
Grid
Distance, capacity and installation cost to onshore connection point. Remote control features for transmission system operator (TSO) for integration into grid system. Impacts to marine habitats (ora and fauna), risk of collision with sea trafc, reduction of shing area. Restricted time for installation process due to wave, tide, general weather conditions and availability of specialised support vessels).
Environment
installation
41
The cost of electricity produced by solar thermal technologies represents the major bottleneck to further progress. Signicant cost reduction potentials for all technologies exist (in particular due to economies of scale and further R&D) and can be exploited as shown for parabolic troughs and for solar tower systems in Figure 2.
Figure 2 Cost of solar thermal electricity generation possible cost reduction due to market development and R&D (Sargent & Lundy 2003, ECOSTAR 2004)
Cost reduction potentials have their origin in a number of different technological and nancial opportunities. The most promising options are: increase of power plant size (up-scaling) economies of scale automated mass production of components
42
increase of operating hours by hybridisation with conventional power plants with special focus on the integrated solar combined-cycle system (only if solar share can be sufciently increased) or the application of storage technological improvements of the individual components of each power plants technology development of multiple plants at the same location in a solar power plant environment development of innovative nancial models and funds adequate for nancing capital intensive projects with high risk levels creation of competition in the manufacturing of key components, such as receivers and reectors etc. (Not all of these options for cost reduction are multiplicative.)
See page 58 for more detailed information on the various critical parameters of solar thermal electricity.
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(IEA 2004) (Sargent & Lundy 2003), (ECOSTAR 2004) Heat transfer medium High overall costs of organic heat transfer medium and thermodynamic disadvantages of an intermediate heat transfer system Low overall efciency Heat transfer by the direct vaporisation of water (FVS 2004) 5-10 y
Receiver tube
Increase of absorber temperatures from 400-450C to 550-600C through improved engineering of the vacuum tube the development of innovative highly efcient absorber materials, enhancing selective coatings Present abs. temp. [C] 425 5y 450 10 y 500 > 15 y 550
Very high temperatures increase the risk of thermal losses and lower absorber pipe durability.
Process control
44
Critical indicators to further progress Development of improved storage concepts based on: phase-change materials in cascade design concrete-oil-iron storage system 5-10 y Present Invest 40 cost [/kWh] (Tamme 2004) 5y 25 10 y 15 > 15 y 10
Comments
Limited dispatchability, high costs of electricity High investment costs of structure Limited quality of direct normal insulation (DNI) data High nancial and technological risk
Detailed ISCCS design integration assessment to analyse performance parameters 10-15 y Advanced concepts for innovative structures (multilayer plastics) 5-10 y Generation of high resolution DNI maps by the use of higher resolution satellite data 5 y Development of a fund to act as guarantee for future projects 5 y
Resource assessment
Economic parameter
Central receiver systems (CRS): The critical indicators for further progress will be shown in the following. Most importantly for the progress of central receiver systems (CRS) is the cost decline of the individual components. Generally the following main variants of CRS exist: CRS using molten salt as heat transfer medium CRS using saturated steam as heat transfer medium CRS using atmospheric air as heat transfer medium CRS using pressurised air as heat transfer medium in combination with a solar hybrid gas turbine Table 10 summarises all major technical and economic bottlenecks as well as the critical indicators to further progress on the different time horizons (short term, medium term, long term) for central receiver systems.
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Storage
Development of improved storage concepts based on: 1-tank thermocline molten salt storage and room temperature ionic liquids (RTIL) phase-change materials in cascade design Technological developments to directly feed the solar process heat into gas turbines to use the high temperature heat (FVS 2004) Efciency improvements in the steam cycle provide the largest contribution to overall cost reduction (FVS 2004) Time horizon: 10 y
Gas turbine
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Ocean energy
Technologies
General Covering two-thirds of the surface of our planet, oceans represent a theoretical energy resource that exceeds the global primary energy consumption by three orders of magnitude. However, most of this energy resource is not accessible by todays technology. Apart from offshore wind energy, which is addressed separately, energy technologies are under development which use tidal and marine currents, the energy of waves, the temperature gradient between surface and deep sea, potential energy from tides (tidal barrages) and the salinity gradient between fresh water from rivers and seawater. Finally, marine biomass fuels are being considered as ocean energy farms, similar to ocean food farms (aquaculture), producing methane as a fuel. None of these ocean energy technologies have achieved a commercial phase yet. The most important ocean energy power plant the only one at industrial scale in Europe is the 240 MW tidal power plant at the river La Rance near St Malo at the French Atlantic coast, built in 1966. From the available ocean energy resources, only a few have been studied with respect to their technical and economic potential. The following technologies will be considered in this section: Tidal barrages Wave energy conversion technologies Tidal/marine current energy converters Salinity energy Temperature gradient Tidal energy is included because it is still the most important technology in the sector but has very limited potential for future exploitation. Salinity energy is the only technology considered which still requires fundamental material science research. The membranes currently available are too expensive and not reliable. Therefore salinity power is not yet in the demonstration phase. However, there are some R&D activities going on in Europe, partially with EC funds. Technologies that use thermal gradients are unlikely to become feasible in Europe. The only applicable approach is to use shoreline ocean thermal electric (OTEC systems), where water is heated onshore and the sea is used as a cool heatsink. There are currently no investigations made for such projects in Europe. Marine biomass is also not a relevant issue for Europe. Currently aquatic plants such as seaweed only contribute to about 3% of the total aquaculture sector in Europe which in itself is small since it represents less than 5% of the global production volumes. Although the systems and projects listed in Table 12 have demonstrated their feasibility, none of them has yet achieved the full scale for commercialisation in the current demonstration projects.
Technology
Tidal barrage*
Commercial
Demonstration
R&D
* Comment: Tidal barrages are currently the only relevant technology in operation at a commercial scale. However, energy costs are not yet competitive on a free market.
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48
Dispatchability: Ocean energies fall into three different categories of dispatchability. Wave energy has a random nature like wind, the main generator for waves, and is therefore not dispatchable. Short-term prediction should be possible in the future. The second category is technologies which use tides, such as tidal barrages and marine currents at most sites. These systems operate intermittently in correlation with local tidal regimes and typically show a few hours of continuous operation with varying power output followed by one or more hours without operation. The last category are systems with an almost constant output and consequently very high dispatchability such as salinity power, OTEC systems, etc. Reliability of operation: Due to the technological status of most systems, the load factors for commercial operation have not yet been achieved. Again, the only exception is the La Rance tidal power plant which has operated reliably over 40 years. Demonstrators and pilot systems typically do not operate continuously due to special test operations, variations of operating conditions, high maintenance and monitoring requirements and nally a high amount of unintended breaks of operation due to malfunctions, damage from storms etc. This aspect is critical since only a proven technology with satisfying operational periods will attract the necessary investment for a commercial exploitation.
See page 59 for more detailed information on the various critical parameters of ocean energy technologies.
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Analysis of the critical indicators to further progress Table 14 Critical indicators to further progress Ocean energy
Technology component Generic Parameters of bottlenecks Marine environment specic design Critical indicators to further progress Reliable overall and detailed design Improvement of technologies for corrosion protection Development of design and operational standards for unmanned marine structures Availability, accuracy, spatial resolution, duration of monitoring period Comments
Resource data
Improvement of resource assessment methods for more detailed knowledge of the resource data relevant for energy use
Development of low-cost grid connection especially for cable laying and xing or other measures against disruption Implementation of harmonised planning permission and EIA procedures Improvement of EIA methodologies e.g. reaction of marine mammals to structures and noise and required compensatory measures Improvements in engineering know-how through experimental and theoretical work Technical optimisation and cost reduction of the energy conversion systems Development of low-cost installation methods, such as drilling or ramming for stationary devices, mooring of oating devices etc Generation of eld experiment data through longer-term operation of several years Careful material selection and coating Improved understanding of hydrodynamics for mathematical and physical modelling Low-cost mooring and grid connection using exible cables and connectors Development of improved components with lower cost and higher efciency and reliability such as air turbines, electrical equipment, hydraulic equipment, ancillary mechanical equipment, large size bearings and seals Improved design and construction methods
Energy cost
Reliability of operation
50
Move on from successful demonstrated shoreline or small near-shore scale oating devices to full-scale offshore demonstrators with longer periods of operation
Current turbines
Improvement of sealing and monitoring of submerged components Improved understanding of hydrodynamics for mathematical and physical modelling in particular for turbulence and proles in the ow Development of more cost-effective installation methods Improved design and construction methods Development of improved membranes with lower cost and higher permeability System design with minimum civil engineering requirements Development of adapted turbine technology for power take-off
Energy cost
Salinity
Membrane
Energy cost
Geothermal energy
Technologies
General remark: Geothermal technologies are characterised by a broad spectrum of technologies and applications and most technologies actually applied in geothermal projects are selected on a case-by-case basis. Moreover quantitative specications as, for example, drilling costs, resource exploration risks, and power plant efciencies are highly dependent on the actual geothermal generation site and can therefore hardly be generalised. Geothermal technologies for energy generation include as main technological streamlines geothermal heat pumps for the use of surface heat (only heat generation), hydrothermal geothermal applications (electricity and heat generation) and enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) such as hot dry rock and hot fracture rock (HDR/HFR) technologies, which deal with low permeability, uiddecient resources and are able to generate electricity and heat. Low-temperature applications for heat production based on geothermal heat pumps can be considered as technologically matured and in the short and medium term these technologies will be supported mainly by market incentive programmes. Furthermore, high enthalpy resources do not require major research and development efforts in the short and long term. The most important geothermal pilot plant at the European Union level is the HFR research project at Soultz-Sous-Forets, located on the western edge of the Rhine Graben. This project started in 1987 and is coordinated by a European Economic Interest Group called GEIE Exploitation Minire de la Chaleur (heat mining). The pilot plant will use three boreholes (one injection, two production wells) of 5000 metres depth each, drilled from the same platform. It is expected that by the end of 2005 this plant will be able to produce around 50 MW of thermal power at temperatures above 180C. From these temperatures, up to 6 MW electricity will be produced. The net output of the plant is estimated to be in the order of 4.5 MWe. [1] Two main stages are considered for the development of the pilot plant. The rst stage between 2001 and 2004 consisted of accessing the resource by drilling into hot granite horizons at around 5000m and creating a heat exchanger by injection of uid under high pressure (stimulation). The second stage, between 2004 and 2007, will focus on the installation of a power plant on the surface and the characterisation and monitoring of the underground heat exchanger in the middle and long term.
51
According to GEIE, it is expected that the industrial development of the HDR/HFR technology will continue with an industrial prototype which could produce around 25 MW of electricity using a multi-well approach with various injection (3) and production (6) wells. Moreover, in the long term, multiple production plants could be constructed in order to improve the economics of HDR/HFR. Besides the Soultz-Sous project, several other projects are being developed at member state level. Table 15 shows the state of the art of different geothermal technologies.
Demonstration
R&D
The following matrix shows the relevance of the different cross-cutting technologies for each of the main areas of application:
Exploration and geothermal reservoir identication Important bottlenecks for geothermal power production concern the development of more accurate and cost-effective methods for identifying, mapping and exploring geothermal reservoirs. Finding geothermal resources (as well as the basic geologic data) with specic characteristics such as minimum geothermal gradient, specic rock properties, number and spacing of fractures, ow impedance, water loss and minimum thermal drawdown rate, depends on several engineering parameters and therefore is far from an easy task. Exploration and reservoir identication represents an important risk for future geothermal energy development. Figure 3 shows the risks estimated for different phases of the construction of a geothermal power plant.
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Figure 3 Risks estimated for different phases of the construction of a geothermal power plant
Drilling and stimulation costs The cost of drilling for exploration and production purposes can be a considerably large part of the overall geothermal plant costs and therefore an important technical and economic bottleneck for geothermal energy production. Drilling research has focused on means to reduce the costs of drilling through hard rock in hightemperature, corrosive environments, by developing longer-lasting bits and better systems for faster and thereby less expensive drilling. In addition, advanced systems to transmit and gather information faster and in real time between the bit and the surface are also being investigated. In some member states (e.g. Germanys Gro Schnebeck), new stimulation techniques are currently being investigated and tested in order to increase the productivity of each wellhead of this project. However, it is important to remark that stimulation technologies depend exclusively on the geological horizon in question, and generalisations cannot be made. Energy extraction and conversion With regard to energy extraction and conversion from geothermal sources, improving casing and tubing materials to resist corrosion and high temperatures and to prevent scaling as well as increasing power plant efciency and performance, are considered to be important technical bottlenecks in order to obtain lower delivered electricity costs in the middle and longer term. Furthermore, with regard to HDR/HFR systems, geothermal pumps are still a problem due to the fact that they currently operate satisfactorily at a maximum of 300m depth, whereas these systems require pumps operation between 500-600m depth as well as at 200C and able to deliver 80 l/s geothermal ow. Geothermal power plants operate at relatively low temperatures compared to other power plants and therefore at low electric efciencies of about 8-12%. CHP applications typically increase signicantly the performance of geothermal power plants. Research efforts should concentrate on new designs of water- and air-cooled condensers as well as improved thermodynamic cycles that extract more energy. Some accomplishments include the improvement of heat exchanger linings that protect low-cost heat exchanger materials from corrosion and scaling as well as the use of ORC and Kalina cycles (binary cycles). ORC processes have been demonstrated to have 30% higher efciency than the
53
conventional cycles (at same temperatures). With regard to the Kalina cycle, these processes are currently at a demonstration stage in various member states and their future success will depend on the results obtained in the short and middle term. In addition, equipment cost and O&M costs for geothermal plants are considered to be important economic bottlenecks for geothermal energy development and should also be reduced in the middle and long term with increased automation.
HDR/HFR 19
Heat generation costs HDR/HFR Investment cost Electric efciency Water mass ow rate circulated through the doublet/triplet
19
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We would like to mention here that high enthalpy resources allow for electricity production costs of 5-8 cent/kWh at present and are targeted to reach 3-5 cent/kWh for the next ten years. These lower cost gures correspond to already commercially available technologies, which should not be confused with EGS technologies mainly dealt with in this document.
Drilling costs and stimulation techniques for increased productivity and reduction of costs
Use
Energy extraction and conversion Low efciency of thermodynamic energy converters for low temperatureinput at surface
Use
Increased automation of power production Standardising technology for scale inhibition and corrosion prevention
55
Support schemes
Various tasks and areas of this industry remain uncompetitive; therefore the establishment of project quotas per year (number of projects [including pilot projects]/year) should be encouraged. Support schemes in the form of investment support for new projects could be allocated for up-front investments such as exploration wells in order to stimulate the development of HFR.
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Biomass-based technologies
Technologies
In general terms, biomass is the name for the organic resources that can be used to produce energy using different processes. At EU level, biomass is dened as the biodegradable fraction of products, waste from agriculture (including vegetable and animal substances), forestry and 20 related industries, as well as the biodegradable fraction of industrial and municipal waste. In this document, only the bottlenecks and indicators for production of biofuels are considered. The bottlenecks and indicators for feedstock production and pre-treatment, end-use integration are not discussed in this report. The rst step of this analysis is presented in this report and focuses on the conversion processes of biomass. In follow-up projects feedstock production/pre-treatment and end-use integration should be included. Furthermore, more basic R&D in the eld of modern biotechnology is not taken into account, as these technologies are discussed in greater detail on page 65 (Generic cross-cutting and horizontal technologies with relevance to energy). The focus will be on the production of biofuels and electricity/heat. Bioreneries have a large potential, but are excluded in this study. The production of ethanol from sugar or starch, biodiesel production from rapeseed, anaerobic digestion, carbonisation, large-scale CHP and combustion will not be considered. These technologies have little improvement potential, as they already are matured technologies. The technologies included in this report are fermentation of lignocelluloses, synthesis of syngas [biomass-to-liquids (BTL) fuel: FT-diesel, methanol, hydrogen, synthetic natural gas (SNG)], hydro thermal upgrading (HTU), ash pyrolysis, (biomass integrated gasication/combined cycle) BIGCC, supercritical gasication and small-scale CHP (wood combustion). Co-combustion with low biomass share is considered to be a commercial technology, for which the current barriers for implementation are not in the technological eld, but on the policy/permissions level. Cocombustion of large amounts of biomass is technically limited and R&D could solve this. In followup projects this should be included. Table 1 shows the state of the art and prospects of the biomass-based technologies considered. Table 1 State of the art and prospects of the biomass-based technologies. Technologies that are already considered to be commercial are not reviewed further
Fuel production technologies (biomass to biofuel) Pressing/extraction (pure plant oil [PPO]) PPO esterication (biodiesel [RME]) Fermentation of sugars/ starch (ethanol) Anaerobic digestion (biogas) Conversion technologies (biomass/ or biofuel to electricity and heat) Combustion Large-scale CHP Anaerobic digestion (biogas) Fermentation of lignocelluloses (ethanol) Gasication (syngas) Synthesis of syngas (biomass-to-liquids (BTL) fuel, e.g. FT-diesel, methanol) Flash pyrolysis BIGCC Supercritical gasication HTU
Commercial
20 21
EU Directive 2003/30/EC on the promotion of the use of biofuels or other renewable fuels for transport. The Stirling engine is considered as it has very exible fuel usage and promising overall efciency [see Biedermann 2004].
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58
Unit
2004
5 years
10 years -
> 15 years
/GJHH M /GJHH %
24
Investment cost (production plant) Operation and maintenance cost Overall efciency Gasication and methanol synthesis (methanol) Methanol cost
23
/GJHH M /GJHH %
9 190 0.9 57
25
Investment cost (production plant) Operation and maintenance cost Overall efciency Gasication and hydrogen production (hydrogen) Hydrogen cost
23
Investment cost (production plant) Operation and maintenance cost Overall efciency Gasication and FT-synthesis (FT-diesel) FT-diesel cost
23
Investment cost (production plant) Operation and maintenance cost Overall efciency HTU (HTU-biocrude) Production cost HTU-biocrude Investment cost (production plant) Operation and maintenance cost Overall efciency Supercritical gasication Cost Investment cost (production plant) Operation and maintenance cost Overall efciency
22
Sources: [Palmers, 2004; Hamelinck, 2004; Broek, et al., 2003; Biofuels, 2003]. Note that instead of gasication as well, the syngas produced via supercritical gasication could be used. However, this experimental process has not yet been economically evaluated. See also appendix A, Reduction investment costs biofuel production. O&M for ethanol is very dependent on cellulose required. Lower fuel efciency, but in the future option electricity production is included [Biofuels BV, 2003],a) based on feedstock cost of 0 /tonne and a conversion rate $: of 0.8 b) for a plant producing nearly 12 ktonne/yr LCR and 8.5 ktonne/yr HCR c) based on 47% O&M costs d), depending on conguration and feedstock.
23 24 25 26
59
Parameters characterising the bottleneck 22 cost Flash pyrolysis Production cost pyrolysis oil Investment cost (production plant) Operation and maintenance cost Overall efciency Small scale CHP (<100 kWe wood combustion) Investment cost Overall efciency (35 kWe) BIGCC (30 Mwe; wood gasication, electricity and heat) Investment cost Efciency
Unit
2004
5 years
10 years -
> 15 years
4-6 1.2 -
27
28
2500 25%
29
30%
1700 40e
1660 43 e
1620 45 e
Enzymes production
27 28
[Hamelinck et al., 2005]: Pyrolysis oil can be produced for 4 6 /GJ, at feedstock costs of 3 /GJ. See also appendix A section Pyrolysis. Technology option is the Stirling engine (Based on Biedermann 2004).
60
29
The amount of hours that a gasication system can fully operate per year 2004 Operational hours target 8000 hrs/yr target year 2020
Gas cleaning
Overall efciency
High temperature gas cleaning will improve overall efciency 2004 Temperature [C] 120250 target target year
Higher temperatures result in lower gas dilution, an increase in Cconversion and a lower tar content.
350-800 2020
System
2010 0.3
target >1.3
System
2015 4.8
Target <2.8
61
Heat transfer from combustion to working gas, heat integration in the overall process
Transport
Transport efciency
Shortening transport distances or increase of bulk size will reduce this. Targets are difcult to quantify due to the diversity per chain.
62
Recommendations
For a good analysis of the bottlenecks and indicators the whole chain (feedstock production and pre-treatment, conversion processes, end-use integration) should be included in this study. The rst step of this analysis is presented in this report and focuses on the conversion processes of biomass. In follow-up projects feedstock production/pre-treatment (torrefaction, pyrolysis, etc) and end-use integration (fuel cells, gas engines, microturbines, etc) should be included. Co-combustion of small amounts of biomass is considered to be a commercial technology, for which the current barriers for implementation are not technical, but on the policy/permitting level. Co-combustion of large amounts of biomass is technically limited and R&D could solve this. In follow-up projects this should be included.
63
65
Table 1 shows the state of the art of different storage technologies, which is quite hard to dene. All types are currently being tested in various demonstration projects. Further R&D is also being carried out parallel to the demonstrations for most of the types, even for the most conventional lead-acid type.
66
Redox in this context refers to vanadium-based storage systems. Such systems are commercially available in the USA and Japan, but very few European companies use this technology. There are only very few installations in Europe. Redox batteries have the potential to achieve very high capacities in the range of hundreds of MWh, but such systems still have to be developed by scaling of the cells and stacks and using adequate power electronics. A critical component is the membrane with respect to cost and stability. Electrolyte circulation causes still high selfconsumption losses and some technical problems with pumping, electrolyte distribution, etc.
Lead-acid batteries energy storage for automotive and standby applications (kWh to MWh range)
Lithium batteries (lithium-ion) power storage for transport applications, energy storage (Wh to some kWh range) for small portable electronics (cell phones, computers, etc.) Energy density Energy density Power density Energy cost Cycling service Lifetime Energy efciency Wh/kg Wh/l W/kg /kWh Deep cycle Years % 80-200 300-400 200-1 500 500-800 600-1 000 3-10 90-95 180-300 400-2 000 150-200 1 000-2 500 5-20 90-97 2010 2010 2010 -
Lithium batteries (lithium metal) energy storage (Wh to some kWh range) for small portable electronics (cell phones, computers, etc.) Energy density Energy density Energy cost Cycling service Lifetime Energy efciency (<kWh to some kWh) Energy density Energy density Power density Energy cost Cycling service Wh/kg Wh/l W/kg /kWh Deep cycle 50-80 75-110 40-65 200-400 500 65-100 150-200 600-1 000 2010 2010 2010 Wh/kg Wh/l /kWh Deep cycle Years % 120-180 300-400 500 100-300 3-20 92-97 200 1 000 2010 2010 -
Nickel batteries (nickel-zinc) energy storage for stand-by and transportation applications
67
Unit %
2004 80
Target -
Target year -
Nickel batteries (nickel-cadmium) energy storage for standby and transportation applications, (Wh to MWh range) Energy density Energy density Power density Cycling service Lifetime Energy efciency Wh/kg Wh/l W/kg Deep cycle Years % 65-75 35-45 80-200 100-1 000 800-2 500 50-100 -
Nickel batteries (nickel-metal hydride) Power storage for small transportation applications, energy storage for portable electronics (Wh to some kWh range) Energy density Energy density Power density Energy cost Cycling service Energy efciency Energy density Energy density Power density Energy cost Cycling service Energy efciency Investment cost Power density Energy density Energy efciency Cycling service Wh/kg Wh/l W/kg /kWh Deep cycle % Wh/kg Wh/l W/kg /kWh Deep cycle % /Wh W/kg Wh/kg % Deep cycle 50-80 80-200 500-1 000 350-500 600-1 200 65-70 200-300 250-300 70-150 200-250 400-500 n.a. 50-150 100-5 000 5-10 85-97 100 000-500 000 80-100 80-300 200-400 135-300 200-500 150-800 700 20-50 10 000-12 000 20 98 500 000 2010 2010 -
Metal air batteries (zinc/air) energy storage for portable and standby applications (kWh range)
Superconducting magnetic energy storage power and energy storage for power quality and standby applications Investment cost Power range Capacity Power density Energy density Energy efciency Lifetime Investment cost Power range Capacity range Power density Energy density Energy efciency /kW MW MWh W/kg Wh/kg % Years /kWh kW kWh W/kg Wh/kg % 10-1 000 0.8 97-98 40 300 2,5-3 000 50-5 000 60-166 25-35 70-80 <200 10 000 50 2010 2 000 -
68
Target -
Target year -
Compressed air energy storage for standby applications (10 kWh to MWh range)
Current technology
Lifetime reliability/ deep cycle performance and Partial state of charge operation
Increased grid corrosion performance and sulphation resistance: technological breakthroughs are achievable through research at the material level and on material processing. A cost-effective and efcient storage system relies upon a good battery technology and a well-designed system integration, which optimises the overall service provided to the end-user.
Issues of interest: plate compression new electrode design, providing more surface area for battery chemistry to occur (metallic foam, composite plates, insertion of nanocomposites) For a given installed capacity, optimisation of the daily useable capacity and of the lifetime, through optimised management strategy. State of charge and state of health indicators.
System integration
69
Electrolyte
System integration
Investment cost
70
Development of recycling processes. As the zinc electrode is known to have a limited cycle life within alkaline electrolytes, the specic R&D needs are mainly to improve cycle life and reliability.
Anode
Air Cathode
The use of new materials, particularly high-surface-area high porosity media for the gas diffusion electrode Increased reliability and reduced costs. Zn/air: solid or xed electrolyte cell for high cycles uses cheap and reliable bifunctional electrodes
Stack
71
System
Recycleability
Development of non-toxic cell components especially for the applications in transport. Research on degradation phenomena and improvement of ageing performances during cycling or oating. Better use of the volume of the carbon material, Higher cell voltage and thus higher electrolyte stability, Novel denition of the electrode structure. For high energy density the nominal voltage has to be increased using an organic electrolyte. [6] Improvement of cell structure by the development of an intermediate modular structure, reliable cellbalancing systems and battery management systems.
System
Lifetime
System
Energy density
Cell
Voltage
Cell
Balance
72
System
Design
In AC applications, there are still electrical losses, but these can be minimised through appropriate wire architecture and device design. Currently applied electronics require expensive heating system radioisotope heating units.
Electronics
Temperature
Compressor
Efciency
The combustion turbine compressor is directly driven by a combustion turbine expander that takes over 50% of its power. Unfortunately, the HAT and CHAT concepts have not yet found attractive market applications, because they require some combustion turbine modications. The manufacturers have not yet concluded that the potential market is large enough to justify the required investments. Avoids complications associated with HAT and CHAT concepts.
Combustion turbine
Efciency
Development of humidication process of the stored compressed air before injection into combustion turbine.
30
73
Including wind power plants, excluding large hydro power plants. Emergency units (e.g. UPS) are not considered within the ESTIR project, due to their limited application eld and low annual electricity production.
74
establishment of market and regulatory framework to facilitate secure and cost-effective DER integration. Integrated DER will be able to provide system support and participate in wholesale, balancing and ancillary services markets Intermittency: Some distributed generation technologies based on renewable energy sources are intermittent by its nature (e.g. wind power, PV, hydro power) or application (e.g. cogeneration). Wind power attracts particular attention with respect to DER integration. Variability, unpredictability and the remoteness of resources from load centres imply additional costs for reliable power system operation with a large wind generation share. Moreover, wind power will amount to a substantial share of future power supplies. This section considers the integration issues of intermittent energy sources (mainly wind power): Predictability: Forecasting of such DER generation can signicantly reduce the reserves required and associated costs of integration, which are quite substantial for wind energy, for example. Wind power forecasting systems have almost achieved their limits on accuracy. Further improvement will be based on increasing quality of weather prediction and aggregation of power output from DER installed in a larger area. Accuracy of forecasting systems are characterised by error level, but for system operators the range between the expected minimum and maximum levels has more added value. It is difcult to compare different forecasting systems, if they are not applied at the same location. Balancing: Any power system must be able to balance demand and supply at any time. Apart from demand uctuations, intermittent energy resources call for additional balancing energy. The magnitude of the balancing energy strongly depends on the wind energy penetration, time horizon, generation mix of power system and geographic distribution of wind power plants. Improved wind power forecasting systems, shortened gate closure, advanced reserves options (storage, demand-side management) can decrease the cost. Reserve capacity: The penetration of intermittent generation increases uncertainty of system operators about generation availability, therefore additional reserve capacity is needed to back up a sudden loss of generation. Higher penetration and longer planning horizons imply a larger reserve capacity. Additional capacity represents a xed cost per MWh for the power system (independent on energy production) for a certain level of installed wind capacity and market costs of reserve capacity. Network infrastructure: As wind farms are built where the resources are, not the load centres, networks must be reinforced or extended to accommodate and transmit the power generation. The cost of infrastructure measures depends on wind penetration, power system capacity, level of existing interconnections.
75
% %
7.18 -
6.06 -
2010 -
/ MWh
Local controllers are responsible for individual generation unit control, providing basic functions, such as selfprotection, simple control of active and reactive power and advanced functions, such as island operation, anticipating disturbances. Central controllers should allow DER aggregators to take over some responsibilities of system operators, such as management of power ows and congestions, frequency controls, reactive power and voltage control, black start.
New architecture will facilitate data and communications exchange between controllers and power system actors. Controllers software will also be developed monitoring, control and data management. This activity is aimed at offering market-related incentives to DER portfolio operators against the new advantages which these DER bring to network operators : - reduced emissions - distributed VAR control - network stability.
33
76
On the base of ISET Advanced Wind Power Prediction Tool results for German power system for day ahead (in % of installed wind turbines capacity).
Energy reserves
Improvement of generation forecasting, shortening gate closure time, advanced reserves options (storage, demand side management).
77
Use of fossil fuels in power and heat generation, including carbon dioxide capture and storage
Use of fossil fuels in power and heat generation
Technologies
The market for large-scale fossil fuel-based power generation technologies is mature. There is a continuous striving to improve environmental performance and reduce costs for existing technologies and to develop competing technologies. An overview of fossil fuel-based power generation technologies is given in Table 1. A major power generation technology is pulverised fuel combustion (PFC). Identied landmarks in improved technology are the supercritical, the ultra-supercritical and the pressurised versions of PFC, requiring further R&D. The natural gas combined cycle has a fast-growing market share, due to its superior environmental characteristics and competitive costs compared to other power generation technologies. Nevertheless, there is still a substantial improvement in terms of efciency and costs expected, which require R&D efforts. No major R&D issues were identied for uidised bed combustion technologies. It should be noted that these technologies will also benet from any development of ultra-supercritical steam conditions for PFC plants. Pressurised uidised bed combustion (PFBC) is believed to be more costly and complex and there is hardly any uptake in the European market. Co-combustion is considered to be a commercial technology, for which the current barriers for implementation are not in the technological eld, but on the policy/permitting level. Chemical looping combustion is still at a laboratory-scale level. Table 1 State of the art of fossil fuel-based power generation technologies
Integrated gasication combined cycle (IGCC) Pulverised fuel combustion (PFC) Fossil fuel based power generation technologies Atmospheric uidised bed combustion (GT) Natural gas combined cycle (NGGC) Co-combustion (coalbiomass) Commercial Demonstration R&D Air blown gasication cycle (ABGC) Supercritical PFC (FPC-SC) Pressurised uidised bed combustion (PFBC) Fuel cells Ultra supercritical PFC (PFC-USC) Pressurised PFC (PPFC) Chemical looping combustion (CLC)
79
the energy conversion efciency of the power generation. A fuel shift to fuels with lower carbon levels or a shift to renewable energy sources are also effective measures in reducing CO2 emissions. An alternative way of reducing CO2 emissions resulting from fossil fuel-based power generation is the capture and storage of CO2. This technology is discussed in a separate section of this report beginning at page 85 Environmental performance: emission standards need to be met in order to get a permit for a power plant. Emissions of NOx, SO2 and particulate matter from conventional coal-red PFC power plants are relatively high and therefore a point of attention. Cost: for the relatively new technology for integrated gasier combined cycles, which is being introduced to the market and which offer low emissions to air and potentially high efciency compared to conventional coal-red power generation, costs (capital costs and O&M costs) need to be reduced to allow further penetration into the market.
Table 2 Quantitative parameters for characterisation of critical bottlenecks [Lako, 2004; Ecofys, 2004]
Parameters PFC / PFC-USC [1,2] Efciency CO2-emissions [a] NOx-emissions [b] SO2-emissions [c] IGCC Capital cost O&M cost Efciency Efciency with higher inlet temperature CO2-emissions [a] CO2-emissions with higher inlet temperature[a] NOx-emissions [b] SO2-emissions [c] NGCC Efciency CO2-emissions [a] % g/kWh el. 56 98 60 92 (2000/kW) (2000/kW) % % g/kWh el. g/kWh el. g/kWh el. g/kWh el. 1400 71 45 48 205 196 0.4 0.06 994 51 52 52 181 0.4 0.05 % g/kWh el. g/kWh el. g/kWh el. 47 201 1.2 0.60 52 181 1.2 0.53 Unit 2000 > 15 years
[a] based on 96 g CO2/GJ-coal and 56 g CO2/GJ-NG [b] based on low-NOx burners [c] based on 1% sulphur content and LHV of 26.5 GJ/tonne
80
The efciency of a PFC power plant is mainly determined by the efciencies of the steam cycle and boiler. Efciencies of side aggregates and plant integration also play an important role in the overall power plant efciency.
Steam cycle
Increase of temperature and pressure 2004 temperature [C] pressure [bar] 600620 300 target 700760 350375 target year < 2010 < 2010
(source: AGO 2000, US-DOE 2004) 1970 efciency [%] steam temp. [C] 36 540 2000 45 600 2010 50 700
The development of conventional sub critical PFC plant to supercritical and ultra-supercritical PFC plant implies the application of higher steam temperatures and pressures. Material development is key, particularly the development of new nickel-based alloys and the improvement of the manufacturability of the alloys.
Development of efciency and steam temperature (PFC-power plant) (source: PowerClean 2004) Steam cycle Efciency Use one or two steam reheat processes Single reheat of steam cycle with conditions of 25 MPa, 560/560C gives an efciency of over 45% LHV basis (already in operation). Double reheat of steam cycle with conditions of 28.5 MPa, 580/580/580C gives an efciency of over 47% LHV basis [AGO (2000)]. The double reheat cycle has been stated to add 6% to the capital cost of the power plant. Improvements in turbine blading shape can result in a turbine efciency improvement of 0.4-2% [AGO (2000), DUT (2000)]
Steam turbine
Efciency
81
Comments Horizontal furnace design with internally ried vertical furnace pipes allows for lower construction costs (vertical low-massux once-through boiler with horizontal furnace developed by Siemens) [PowerClean (2004)] By lowering the temperature of the ue gas, less heat is lost resulting in a higher efciency. Limit of the lowest level of the nal ue gas temperature is the corrosion of downstream components. The nal ue gas temperature can be lowered by the inclusion of extra heating surface area in the boiler, usually in the air heater. For every 10C decrease in nal ue gas temperature an efciency increase of the boiler of 0.5 - 1% can be achieved [AGO (2000)]. NOx emissions can be reduced by integrated (combustion modication) and add-on (ue gas treatment) technologies. Low-NOx burners and furnace air staging have been employed in hundreds of plants world-wide. Furnace fuel staging (reburn) is still in demonstration phase. Existent research aims at improving low-NOx burners and developing furnace fuel staging. Flue gas treatment technologies selective non-catalytic reduction (SNCR) and selective catalytic reduction (SCR) are commercially available. SCR has been applied in Japan and Germany to meet stringent NOx emission limits.
Boiler
Efciency
System
NOx-emissions
Reduction of NOx-emissions Combustion modication % NOx reduction low NOx burner furnace airstaging item 1 and 2 combined reburn item 1 and 4 combined Flue gas treatment % NOx reduction SNCR SCR (source: DTI 1999) 30-50% 80-90% 30-70% 20-40% 50-60% 50-60% 70%
82
Critical indicators to further progress Reduction of SO2-emissions ue gas desulphurisation technology add-on SO2-reduction regenerable FGD [%] SO2-reduction nonregenerable FGD [%] (source: IEA 1999) > 95 > 95 2004
Comments SO2 emissions can be reduced by integrated technologies (reducing the sulphur content by coal preparation, coal gas desulphurisation) and add-on (ue gas desulphurisation, FGD) technologies. Two main FGD technologies exist: regenerable FGD and non-regenerable FGD. Most coal-red plants have been equipped with nonregenerable FGD, of which wet scrubbing is the most common.
System
Reduction of particular matter (PM) emissions ue gas desulphurisation technology add-on PM reduction, electrostatic precipitators (ESP) [%] PM reduction fabric lters (baghouses) [%] (source: IEA 1999) > 99.5 > 99.9 2004
Table 4 Critical indicators to further progress Integrated Gasication Combined Cycle (IGCC)
Technology component System Parameters of bottlenecks Capital cost Critical indicators to further progress Integration of components Comments Integration has the advantage of improving efciency, but may increase the complexity of the process Reduction of complexity of the plant and learning-bydoing reduces plant failures
System
Costs
Improve reliability and availability of the plant (availability of IGCC plant in Buggenum, NL increased from 4 000 in 1997, to 7 000 in 2004) Gasier component development, including improved materials for refractories and heat recovery steam generators (HRSGs), and improved feeding and handling systems Reduction of air separation units cost
Gasier
Capital cost
Capital cost
83
Critical indicators to further progress Increase of turbine inlet temperature and improvement of heat recovery steam generator and steam cycle 2004 target inlet temperature [C] CO2 emissions [g/kWh] 1200 1400 target year < 2015 2020 2020
Comments Studies under FP4 showed that the design efciency of 45% of the Puertollano IGCC could be increased up to 48% by increasing the turbine inlet temperature (from 1120C to 1250C) and by improving the heat recovery steam generator and steam cycle. Modelling the benets of a major system redesign showed that 51.5% is achievable (IGCC98).
52 181
Gasier
Efciency
(source: PowerClean 2004; Ecofys 2004) Increase of fuel gas temperature and development of dry high temperature gas cleaning Establishment of supercritical steam conditions Development of ion-electron conducting membranes using nonporous ceramic membranes, and advanced cryogenic processes 2004 energy requirement [kWh/tO2] 235 target 150 target year 2010 Reduction of energy requirement of oxygen separation includes ionelectron conducting membranes using nonporous ceramic membranes, and advanced cryogenic processes. New inorganic membrane-based systems may reduce the energy requirement for cryogenic separation from 235 kWh/ ton O2 to less than 150 kWh/ton O2. For an IGCC this implies an increase of efciency of more than 3%points [Ecofys (2004), Stein (2001)] The development of zero emission IGCC power plants based on pre-combustion carbon capture requires the development of gas turbine combustion systems, which can use hydrogen as a fuel.
Efciency Efciency
System
Emissions
Development of gas turbine combustion systems, which can use hydrogen as a fuel.
84
Table 5 Critical indicators to further progress Gas-red Power Generation Technologies (NGCC)
Technology component Gas turbine Parameters of bottlenecks Efciency Critical indicators to further progress Increase of turbine inlet temperature and development of new materials allowing higher temperatures Optimisation of compressor design, increase of polytrophic efciency Improvement in turbine blading shape (among others by using 3D modelling instead of todays 2D modelling) Improvements in turbine blading shape Comments
Efciency Efciency
Steam cycle
Efciency
CLC principle is to stage traditional combustion into two separate reaction phases, thus CLC can result in a direct concentration of CO2 during its formation. CLC is still in an early stage of development. To take this technology forward, reactor concepts and stable reactive materials at acceptable costs must be developed. Efciency/ costs Reactivity Development of oxygencarrier particles of sufcient reactivity and lifetime
System
Loss of nes, i.e. small particles Reactor concept Applicability to multiple fuels The most suitable fuels are natural gas and coal, but in principle biomass is also applicable.
85
Pre-combustion
86
Public acceptance: the technology of carbon capture and storage is still largely unknown to the public. Demonstration projects, which show the feasibility of long-term CO2 storage, are needed to support dissemination of the technology to the public. Thorough monitoring of these projects has to prove that the technology is safe and reliable and that no leakage of CO2 occurs (or only at acceptable low levels). Legal framework: currently a legal framework for carbon capture and storage is lacking, and needs to be put in place. Among other aspects, the liability of carbon storage needs to be addressed.
Figure 1 Long-term (2050) cost reduction potentials of carbon capture and storage
87
360
288
180
(source: Ecofys 2004) Development of less energy-intensive CO2 capture technologies (e.g. absorption solvent which is easier to regenerate at lower temperatures) Reduction of electric efciency loss and improvement of capture efciency of carbon capture PFC-USC 2000 2020 9.33 90 2050 5.8 95 Higher capture efciencies lead to higher energy requirements. However it is expected that in the future it will be possible to decrease electric efciency loss, while capture efciency increases as well.
2000 7.1 85
2020 6.1 90
2050 4.6 95
88
(source: Ecofys 2004) Development of improved and less energyintensive CO2 capture technologies. Reduction of electric efciency loss and improvement of capture efciency of carbon capture [Ecofys (2004)]: IGCC capture efciency [%] 2000 85% 2020 90% 6.6% 7.5% 2050 95% 4.1% 4.5% For instance by better heat integration, improved catalyst for fuel conversion, and development of membrane separation.
el. efciency 8.2% loss IGCC [%] el. efciency loss NGCC [%] 9%
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Innovative biotechnologies
Introduction
Biotechnological processes can be applied for the production of energy sources from various raw materials and sources. Established processes use biomass in order to generate hydrogen, ethanol, methanol, and acetone with butanol and ethanol (ABE). The processes listed below for the examples of ethanol and ABE characterise key issues for future industrial commercialisation of innovative advancement. Procedural details are outlined in the section hydrogen and fuel cell technologies and the section biomass. Innovative process optimisation focuses on the use of cheaper carbon sources and aim on the improvement of strains and strain metabolism by genetic engineering. A third area for innovation is the improved efciency of product recovery. Biogas and biomass for energy generation employ biotechnological techniques as well, however at present there are few efforts for high-tech improvement. Thus these techniques are solely discussed in the section biomass. A future trend of innovative biotechnology offers the application of photosynthesis for energy generation. At present this process is pure basic research. According to experts industrial applications are expected to have a long-term perspective for commercialisation. The chapter will outline underlying principles and trends towards industrial application.
91
costs and practicability of downstream processing/product recovery compared to petrochemical processes willingness and availability of human resources to conduct biotechnological processes. frame conditions for biological processes (e.g. threshold of air and water pollution, CO2 emission). Table 1 summarises the bottlenecks for selected processes. The subsequent chapters in this report describe these processes in more detail by an analysis of the present state of the art, future perspectives, and key issues for improvement.
Table 1 Most critical bottlenecks for the industrial commercialisation of innovative biotechnological processes
Process Hydrogen production Bottleneck Low activity of the key enzymes hydrogenase and nitrogenase Critical indicators to further progress 1. genetic engineering of producer strain increase of specic activity of key enzymes inactivation of competing metabolic pathways 2. development of cell-free systems Today process efciency Supply with adequate amount of organic compounds Disposal of fermentative byproducts 5% Aim 10% Middle term Middle term Time horizon Long term
process development for various substrates (e.g. adjustment of process to utilise waste water) 1. process development with mixed cultures for the complete conversion into CO2 and H2 2. extension of substrate specicity of one organism by genetic engineering 1. genetic engineering of producer strain to grow on lignocelluloses integration of cellulase genes into ethanol producing bacteria (e.g. E. coli) integration of ethanol metabolism into plant pathogenic micro-organisms (e.g. Erwinia) Today Ethanol recovery rate on lignocelluloses > 90% (dependent on substrate) Aim 9095%
Ethanol production
Long term
Short term
2. development of two-stepped process with an extra cellular hydrolysis of cellulose followed by fermentation Today Aim
Enzyme costs
92
Process
Critical indicators to further progress 1. development of biological, physical or chemical processes for detoxication 2. development of side product tolerant production strains by genetic engineering Today 2007 Aim ethanol production costs 0.32 US$/l EtOH 0.26 US$/l EtOH > 0.21 US$ /lEtOH
ABE production
Determination of gene localisation and stable integration of desired gene into the genome 1. genetic engineering of producer strain to grow on lignocelluloses 2. recycling of fermentation broth Today Butanol production costs 0.55 US $/kg butanol Aim > 0.44 US $ /kg butanol
Development of more efcient methods for product recovery such as nanoltration Development of processes that allow ushing cells with fresh protein solution Development of thicker protein layers Today Efciency 1% Aim 20%
Human resources in traditional chemical industry lack qualications for the introduction of biotechnological processes Regulations and frame conditions often favour petrochemical alternatives
1. special advanced courses for technicians 2. integration of biotechnology into existing curricula
1. compulsory cost calculation that includes environmental effects 2. subsidies for environmental-friendly energy sources to be retained and/or extended
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Hydrogen
Present state of the art Three different metabolic principles can be applied for biological hydrogen production. All are in the status of basic research. Industrial application is expected for 20302040 (Cammack 2001). Table 2 Characteristics of three types of biological hydrogen production
Type Biophotolytic hydrogen generation Photoproduction of hydrogen Metabolism Oxygenic photosynthesis Anoxygenic photosynthesis Organisms Green algae, cyanobacteria Phototrophic bacteria Light required Yes Electron donor Water Products Hydrogen, oxygen Hydrogen, CO2, oxidised sulphur compounds
Yes
Fermentation
Fermenting bacteria
No
Future perspectives Biophotolytic hydrogen generation is an ideal type of biological hydrogen generation. However low efciency is due to the complex regulation of the key enzymes hydrogenase and nitrogenase. The production strain may be optimised by genetic engineering (e.g. increase of specic activity of hydrogen producing enzymes, inactivation of competing metabolic pathways) or the development of cell-free systems. Coupling of photoproduction and fermentation with waste-water treatment, as organic compounds are required as electron donors. Development of strategies for the integrated use of substrate and fermentation product. Development of bioelectronic fuel cells. Key issues for hydrogen Increase of efciency of the process towards the theoretical maximum (the present degree of efciency is 5%, the desirable degree for economic competitiveness is 10%) (Jaeckel et al.1993) Increase of the long-term stability of the process Development of a concept for commercial production plant including ecological supply with substrates, water, nutrients and use of resulting biomass. Previous experience has been gained solely from laboratory-scale work.
Ethanol
Present state of the art 31 million m3 ethanol produced worldwide per annum, more than 90% of world ethanol production is produced by fermentation. The USA produces 65% of worldwide production. Increase by over 40% is expected until 2006 due to extension of bioethanol programmes and specic regulations (e.g. EU directive for gasoline blends). Two-thirds of global ethanol production is used for the fuel sector.
94
Established processes use sugars from sugar cane, sugar beet, corn and potatoes. Fermentation is generally carried out in large-volume fermenters by yeast fermentation followed by distillation for removal of the desired product. Production costs are in the range of 0.851.20 /l, with 0.240.32 /l for raw material (Schmitz 2004). At present basic research is carried out for fermentation of lignocelluloses as a cheaper raw material, which will reduce ethanol production costs by 15 cent/l. This process requires combination of mechanical disintegration, sulphuric acid hydrolysis, enzymatic hydrolysis by cellulases for the conversion of carbohydrates into monomeric sugars. Future perspectives New (transgenic) production organisms will allow the fermentation of ethanol from lignocelluloses (e.g. E. coli, Klebsiella oxytoca, Zymomonas mobilis). An economically sustainable process requires conversion rates of 90-95% of the sugar used into ethanol. Integration of the cellulose-hydrolysis into the ethanol production stage either by integration of ethanol biosynthesis into plant pathogenic bacteria (Erwinia) with a volumetric productivity of 1.5 g ethanol l-1 h-1 or integration of cellulase genes into ethanol producing E. coli.
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Development of measures for detoxication of (phenolic) by-products by biological treatment with laccase or fungi, chemical treatment (precipitation), or physical treatment (extraction, ion exchange) or development by-product tolerant production strains. Key issues for ethanol Cost-efcient hydrolysis of lignocelluloses into fermentable sugars without formation of inhibiting substances (at present production costs of bioethanol are calculated at approx. 0.3 /l of ethanol, competitiveness to fuel on crude oil basis is reached if production costs of ethanol are below 0.18 /l. Complete fermentation of all sugars (hexoses and pentoses) into ethanol, avoidance of byproducts (e.g. glycerine, succinate) Avoidance of contamination Minimisation of number of process steps Use of by-products Substrate diversication for year-round production-processes.
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Key issues for ABE Decrease of production costs by industrial development of cheaper and easily available raw material Development of energy-efcient downstream processing for cost-saving product recovery Improvement of long-term process stability and reproductivity (e.g. avoidance of phage contamination and degeneration of production strain) Approximation of practical process towards theoretical limits of yield and end product concentration Complete and high-grade usage of all fermentation products.
Photosynthesis
Present state of the art Principle: photosynthetic proteins (approximately 2 billion) from spinach and the bacterium Rhodobacter sphaeroides are harvested and deposited onto a glass support The glass substrate is coated with indium tin oxide as transparent electrode. The proteins are embedded in a synthetic membrane and covered with a soft layer of organic semiconductor. This is topped with a silver electrode (Rupa et al. 2004). Durability: 3 weeks Efciency: 1% (conventional silicon cells 20%), expected efciency: 20 to 30% Major problem: light goes straight through the device, as protein layer is too thin. Future perspectives Longer-lasting photovoltaic cells, from self-repairing proteins and by ushing the cell with fresh protein solution Cheaper and environment-friendly production of biological cells (Baldo, personal communication 2004). Key issues for photosynthesis Number of proteins to be packed into the device in order to increase the power output, as efciency of biological solar cells is too small compared to conventional silicon solar cells. Durableness of biological solar cells is still too short compared to conventional silicon solar cells. Figure 3 Articial photosynthetic solar cell
Green machine. In this prototype solar cell, photosynthetic proteins (spheres embedded in yellow peptides) absorb light and pump electrons (e) into a silver electrode.
(Source: M. Baldo)
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Metal oxides/metals Hydrogen storage supercondenser Nanostructured membranes and electrodes for fuel cells, batteries and accumulators Super conducting cables Super conducting storage coils
Nanoceramics and coatings Magnetic materials OLEDs for displays and lighting
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Table 4 Most critical bottlenecks for the industrial commercialisation of (nano) materials
Process Dye solar cells Bottleneck Measure for improvement / Indicator Time horizon Medium term Medium term
Long-term stability Use of alternative particle materials Maximum obtainable Use of alternative material combinations solar efciency Today Aim Solar efcien Industrial production process Dye material price per gram 8% Today 1750 15% Aim 10
Long term
Long term
Sensitivity to air and Use of alternative materials moisture Maximum obtainable Use of alternative material combinations solar efciency 2004 Solar efcacy Industrial production process Aim: 0.5 /Wp Today: 2% (at 77 K) 0.6 mass % (room temperature) 3% 2010 5% 2015 10% Long term Long term
Carbon nanotube High adsorption hydrogen storage rates under ambient working conditions Supercondenser Catalyst materials Nano fuel additives Cheap electrode material Price efciency of catalysator
See nanotubes and fullerene (general) See nanotubes and fullerene (general) Use of alternative catalyst material
Long term Long term medium to long term Short to medium term
Price of Detection of other suitable materials nanoparticles (use of Problem depends on fuel price rare earths) Greater temperature gradient Improved materials with higher t across Thermal Barrier Coating Today t across TBC 175 k Aim > 250 k
Nano coatings
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Measure for improvement / Indicator Development of more effective processing methods, especially powder injection moulding (PIM) GaN LEDs are relatively new devices. Further research will improve their efciency 2005 2007 2012 2020 150 200
Stability of OLED materials, rapid aging of materials Expensive/inefcient production process for OLEDs Superconducting Critical temperature materials and anisotropy
Development of alternative processes (loss of organic material << 95%) Identication of materials with higher critical temperature (77 K and above) Today Tc Anisotropy B 20 108 <<1 50-100 <30 T (4,2 K) <15 T (10 K) <10 T (77 K) Aim >> 77 K <10 3-10 T (at T>>77 K) 0.1 m (generators) 2 m (power cables)
Field
Mechanical stability
Bend radius
Nanoparticles
Dye solar cells Conventional photovoltaics with tailor-made III-V semiconductors have achieved a conversion of 30%. Dye solar cells (DSC) or Grtzel cells (Grtzel 2001) represent a recently developed class of solar cells, which is based on completely different principles to semiconductor technology. The basis for production is inexpensive thin-lm technology, such as that already applied in industrial processing of glass and polymers. This offers the potential for nancially attractive manufacturing. In the (nanocrystalline) DSC, sunlight is converted to another form of energy with the help of dye molecules, as also happens in photosynthesis. The lm of the cell contains TiO2 nanoparticles or quantum dots with a size distribution showing a wide range of electronic band gaps that determine the wavelength absorbed by the respective particle, so that much of the solar spectrum can be captured by the cell and transformed into electricity. The efciency value of dye solar cells is currently about 8% and the aim is to increase it to 15% in the future. The current cost to manufacture the dye material is between 17 and 50 per gramme. The longer-term goal is 10 per gramme (Malsch 2003; Fairley 2004). If DSCs can be made cheaply with an optimised distribution of nanoparticle diameters, properly aligned, this would form an ideal solar collector. Though several rms (e.g. Konarka) are working on rst prototypes to be used in mobile phones and handheld computers, the eld is young and changing rapidly. Major problems like long-term stability, maximum obtainable solar efciencies and industrial production methods still have not been sufciently claried (Fairley 2004).
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Carbon nanotubes and fullerenes Besides long-established materials like carbon black, nanostructured carbon consists of relatively new compounds like fullerenes (C60 molecules, Buckyballs) and carbon nanotubes (CNT). CNTs, which can occur single- or multiwalled, are predicted to have a wide variety of applications due to their outstanding properties like extremely high tensile strength, and excellent thermal and electrical conductance. The main barrier to a broad use of CNTs is due to the high price of approximately 150 per gram for single-walled nanotubes. The high price reects the early development stage of industrial production and purication. Several methods aiming at the mass production of CNTs have been proposed but they are still at the stage of small-scale laboratory tests. Since the properties of CNT vary depending on the diameter and other factors of nanotubes, it is necessary to control these factors. Though progress has been made it is not yet possible to control these factors to produce CNTs with uniform properties. (Tada 2002; Dai 2002) Organic solar cells Another alternative solar cell technology uses a composite material of a conjugated polymer and carbon nanotubes or fullerenes that form lms of about 200 nm thickness (Brabec et al. 2003). Such organic solar cells (OSC) still have low efciency values of about 3% under normal ambient conditions. The main reason is the low absorption of light in the thin organic layers. OSCs are potentially cheaper to manufacture than silicon or dye cells, but still highly sensitive to air and moisture, making commercial applications difcult. New material concepts, but also improvement of the optical properties, could change this. The aim is to increase the efciency of such plastic cells to 5% in ve years and 10% in the long run (Fairley 2004). A long-term goal is to reduce the cost of solar cells to below 0.5 /Wp. This technology is further developed by major enterprises such as Siemens. Hydrogen storage Due to their chemical properties, high surface area and low weight, CNTs and fullerenes are discussed as means for hydrogen storage. After a phase of initial euphoria this is being more critically reviewed today. Reproducible experiments show that a hydrogen storage capacity of up to 2 mass % (at very low temperatures) is possible in single-walled CNTs. The much higher absorption rates (510 mass %) that were published in the late 1990s seem to be the result of inaccurate experiments. At room temperature the gravimetric storage density drops to 0,6 mass %. Much research is also needed to obtain a controlled release of hydrogen from these materials under practical conditions. Despite interesting approaches in hydrogen storage research using CNTs, no breakthrough is in sight (Zttel 2004). Catalysts In general, nanoparticles have a high surface area, and hence provide higher catalytic activity. It is possible to synthesise metal nanoparticles in solution in the presence of a surfactant to form highly ordered monodisperse lms of the catalyst nanoparticles on a surface. This allows more uniformity in the size and chemical structure of the catalyst, which in turn leads to greater catalytic activity and the production of fewer by-products. It may also be possible to engineer specic or selective activity. These more active and durable catalysts could nd application in fuel cells, where the external surface properties and the pore structure affect performance. The hydrogen used as the immediate
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fuel in fuel cells may be generated from hydrocarbons by catalytic reforming, usually in a reactor module associated directly with the fuel cell. The potential use of nano-engineered membranes to intensify catalytic processes could enable higher-efciency, small-scale fuel cells. These could act as distributed sources of electrical power. It may eventually be possible to produce hydrogen locally from sources other than hydrocarbons, which are the feedstocks of current attention. Nanostructured catalysts using CNTs or other nanoparticles will also be applied in cleaning up waste streams. This will be particularly benecial if they reduce the demand for platinum-group metals, whose use in standard catalytic units is starting to emerge as a problem, given the limited availability of these metals. Although progress has been spectacular in the development of nanostructured catalysts, there are still major hurdles to be jumped before rational design of catalysts and other energy-related materials becomes a commercial reality (Steele/Heinzel 2001; Paschen et al. 2004). Supercondenser Electrochemical supercondensers (SCs) are another possibility for the short-term storage of energy. They are made up of two porous electrodes insulated by a separator paper impregnated with an ion-conducting medium or electrolyte. The combination of high specic area electrodes with an electrolyte of a high concentration of ions allows the creation of SCs of high potential and great ability to withstand charge-discharge cycles. SCs are a good complement to batteries and most suitable for the steady delivery of electric current, though they can also be used to compensate for short-term peak loads. Thus the integration of the SCs with other energy storage systems batteries or fuel cells allows a more rational design for electricity supply systems. Besides activated carbons, electrodes can also be formed from carbon aerogels or nanotubes. Both materials have a high surface area and good conductivity, and allow increasing the capacity of a SC signicantly. In addition the use of carbon as the electrode material offers the opportunity of low cost and easy accessibility (Frackowiak/Beguin 2001; Paschen et al. 2004). Fuel additives As additives to solid and liquid fuels nanoparticles can optimise ignition and burning characteristics. A general advantage of nanoscale particles or structures is that they can be mixed with the components of an energetic material on a molecular scale. This is the best possible mixture, and a precondition for a fast and complete chemical transformation. For solid rocket propellants aluminium nanoparticles can increase the burning rate in comparison to conventional aluminium powders (Paschen et al. 2004). Nanoparticles also promise a higher efciency of liquid fuels like diesel, meaning more kilometres per litre, cleaner engines and less pollution. These diesel additives consist of nanoscale cerium oxide particles, which catalyse the combustion reactions between diesel and air. Cerium oxide functions as a kind of oxygen store that is released to oxidise carbon monoxide and hydrocarbon gases to form carbon dioxide, and also absorbs oxygen to reduce the quantity of nitrogen oxides (Zhang et al. 2002). Cerium oxide has been studied for some time but has not become a commercial success yet, mainly due to the high price. Cerium oxide nanoparticles can be used at a much lower concentration since their greater surface improves the catalytic reaction. Various tests with this additive have been made in Hong Kong and Scotland. The Oxonica Corporation reports that up to 12% fuel economy benets were demonstrated in these eld trials under commercial operating conditions (Oxonica 2003).
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Nanocomposites
Nanoceramic coatings Coatings with thickness controlled at the nano- or atomic scale have been in routine production for some time, for example in Molecular Beam Epitaxy or metal oxide Chemical Vapor Deposition for optoelectonic devices, or in catalytically active and chemically functionalised surfaces. Thermal barrier coatings (TBC) are applied in order to reduce the heat ux between the surface and the substrate component. Depending on heat ow conditions and the thickness of the coating, the temperature difference across the thermal barrier coating can reach 175 C. TBCs are considered technologically important because of their ability to further increase the operating temperature of any kind of heat engine (combustion engine, gas turbine, etc), reduce cooling requirements, thus achieving higher engine efciency, lower emissions and increased performance. TBCs using nanoparticles provide better thermic and thermomechanic properties (lower thermal conductivity, better thermal stability and higher toughness) than current coatings. With such advanced TBCs it will be possible to increase the temperature difference across the thermal barrier coating to about 250 C enabling very high operation temperatures (1650 C) for gas turbines and propulsion engine systems (Zhu/Miller 2004). Besides coatings nanoceramics are important materials for other parts of power systems as well. Normally ceramics are hard, brittle and difcult to machine. However, with a reduction in grain size to the nanoscale, ceramic ductility can be increased. Zirconia, normally a hard, brittle ceramic, has even been rendered superplastic. Nanocrystalline ceramics, such as silicon nitride and silicon carbide, have been used in such automotive applications as high-strength springs, ball bearings and valve lifters, because they can be easily formed and machined, as well as exhibiting excellent chemical and high-temperature properties. They are also used as components in hightemperature furnaces. In all this applications the use of nanoceramics can help increase the operation temperature and thus the thermal efciency (Hahn 2004; Paschen et al. 2004). Magnetic materials Soft magnetic materials are those materials that are easily magnetised and demagnetised. They are used primarily to enhance and/or channel the ux produced by an electric current as in electrical generators, motors and power supply transformers. For this purpose the material is continuously cycled from being magnetised in one direction to the other. A high permeability, small conductivity and a narrow hysteresis loop is desirable in order to reduce losses and reach a high efciency. Hard magnets, also referred to as permanent magnets, are magnetic materials that retain their magnetism after being magnetised. In recent decades permanent magnets have become increasingly important as they are used in a wide variety of applications (automotive, industrial, astro and aerospace, etc.) Improved permanent magnets with signicantly reduced cost, increased maximum operating temperature and improved corrosion resistance may replace energy-consuming electro magnets for many applications. They can be used in white goods, such as washing machines, refrigerators etc, in order to improve energy efciency and reduce CO2 emissions. Another important use could be in generators for domestic combined heat and power units and in clean energy production such as windmills. The biggest potential however is in electric vehicles. Recently there has been much interest in nano-crystalline material, which is produced by annealing the amorphous material. These alloys can be single phase but are usually comprised of nano-sized grains, in the range 10-50nm, in an amorphous matrix. They have relatively high resistivity, low anisotropy and good mechanical strength. It has been shown that magnets made of nanocrystalline yttriumsamariumcobalt grains possess unusual magnetic properties due to their extremely
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large grain interface area (high coercivity can be obtained because magnetisation ips cannot easily propagate past the grain boundaries). This could lead to applications in motors, analytical instruments like magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), used widely in hospitals, and microsensors. Overall magnetisation, however, is currently limited by the ability to align the grains direction of magnetisation. Though nanocrystalline materials have shown many good properties they have some drawbacks where the cost of production is still very high. Some more cost-effective production processes have been proposed but have not reached maturity (Inoue 2002, Ramanujan 2003). Nanostructured membranes for batteries and accumulators With the growth in portable electronic equipment (mobile phones, navigation devices, laptop computers, remote sensors), there is great demand for lightweight, high-energy density batteries. In the future, rechargeable batteries will become even more important in combination with renewable energy production such as photovoltaics. Nanocrystalline materials synthesized by solgel techniques are candidates for separator plates in batteries because of their foam-like (aerogel) structure, which can hold considerably more energy than conventional ones. Nickel-metal hydride batteries made of nanocrystalline nickel and metal hydrides are envisioned to require less frequent recharging and to last longer because of their large grain boundary (surface) area. There are mainly two types of rechargeable batteries where nanostructured materials are applied. The rst and most advanced is the dry lithium based battery. The other, wet type, uses the same materials as for hydrogen storage, metal hydrides or carbon nanotubes (Tarascon/Armand 2001). It was recently shown that transition-metal oxide nanoparticles can improve lithium-ion mobility which can not only enhance efciency but also allow a signicant extension to the number of cycles a rechargeable battery can withstand before it deteriorates. Light emitting diodes for displays and lighting Signicant changes in display and lighting technologies are expected in the next ten years. Semiconductors used in the preparation of light-emitting diodes (LEDs), as lighting can increasingly be sculpted at nanoscale dimensions. Roughly 1% of all electricity is consumed for lighting, including both incandescent and uorescent lights. Since incandescent light bulbs only convert 5% of the energy into light while even todays gallium nitride (GaN) LEDs have a light efciency between 60 and 90%. Since researchers believe that they can increase the quantum efciency of next-generation GaN LEDs close to 100% and though there are other loss mechanisms enormous energy savings will be possible In 10 to 15 years. Projections indicate that such nanotechnologybased lighting advances have the potential to reduce worldwide consumption of energy by more than 0.5% (Zorpette 2002). Organic LEDs consist of layers of organic thin lms sandwiched between two conductors. When an electric current is applied, bright, visible light is emitted. The devices are lightweight, durable, exible and power efcient, and hence ideal for portable devices but also for conventional application like TV sets and computer displays. They need fewer process steps and use fewer and cheaper materials than the well-established liquid-crystal displays, their marketplace rivals. Since it is believed that OLEDs can be as energy efcient as GaN LEDs, great energy-saving opportunities exist.
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Though the general principle of OLEDs is well researched there are still weaknesses. The dyes in organic solar cells and some of the light emitting polymers are very sensitive to air and moisture. The two industrial production processes in use today are relatively expensive, mainly due to the loss of 95% of organic material during the process (Niesing 2002).
Superconducting materials
For superconducting magnetic energy storage (SMES) electric energy is stored by circulating a current in a superconducting coil. Because there are no resistive losses, this current persists indenitely. The efciency of charging and discharging is very high because no energy conversion is needed, and for the same reason SMES can respond rapidly, only limited by the time required for AC/DC-conversion. SMES can also be used for load levelling and frequency and voltage control, which will probably be the rst application of this technology. A large-scale application depends on achieving high critical current densities to be cost-competitive with other technologies. At present niobium-titanium, niob-tin and bismuth (2223) alloys are used for storage as well as for transmission purposes at liquid helium or hydrogen temperatures. Widespread use of superconducting materials for higher critical temperatures (at liquid nitrogen temperature and above) still requires more research and development (Labalestier 2001). Recent theoretical studies of NIST and the University of Pennsylvania show that changing the shape of CNTs can reveal new properties including superconductivity and might be used as a material for power applications in the long run (Dag et al 2003). Superconducting transmission lines could reduce resistive losses, but requires energy for cryogenic cooling of the cables. It should be possible to use existing tunnels for these cables, thereby reducing cost while increasing the transmission capacity (Dresselhaus 2001). Since high powers are involved, careful considerations have to be made about the consequences of a failure of cooling. An enormous amount of energy would be released immediately when the superconductor turns into a normal conductor (10 MWh of stored energy would be equivalent of 1.18 tonnes of TNT). In 2003 American superconductors was selected by the Long Island Power Authority to supply the rst high-temperature superconducting power transmission cable (Bi-2223 at 108 K). Cables manufactured by Nexans will provide three to ve times more power than conventional cables of the same size (Lane 2003).
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European Commission EUR 21611 Energy Scientic and Technological Indicators and References Luxembourg: Ofce for Ofcial Publications of the European Communities 2005 105 pp. 21.0 x 29.7 cm ISBN 92-894-9169-8
Contacts Mario Ragwitz Fraunhofer Institute Systems and Innovation Research Breslauer Strasse 48 D-76139 Karlsruhe Germany Tel : +49 (0) 721 6809 157 Fax : +49 (0) 721 6809 272 [email protected]
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KI-NA-21611-EN-C
Energy Scientic and Technological Indicators are needed to monitor the status of research and technological development (state of the art), related research and industrial evolution and to dene realistic targets or objectives for future activities. Such indicators and data, when properly dened and validated, are a useful tool for policy drivers, decision-makers, programme managers, potential investors, bankers, technology end-users, etc. They record the complex links between energy use, energy technologies, industrial developments, market needs and socio-economic activities. This study identies and justies a preliminary set of critical indicators and references of a scientic, technological or techno-economic nature. These indicators are based on the present state of the art and characterise the major bottlenecks to be overcome or the main challenges to be addressed by each technology in its future development.