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Pert

The document discusses the Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) which was developed by the US Navy to plan and control projects. PERT uses probabilistic time estimates for activities since completion times are uncertain. It considers optimistic, pessimistic, most likely, and expected activity times to calculate the standard deviation and probability of completing the project on time. PERT networks show precedence relationships between activities and can identify the critical path. The technique is useful for non-repetitive projects with uncertain timelines, such as research and development.

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Amit Singh
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80 views2 pages

Pert

The document discusses the Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) which was developed by the US Navy to plan and control projects. PERT uses probabilistic time estimates for activities since completion times are uncertain. It considers optimistic, pessimistic, most likely, and expected activity times to calculate the standard deviation and probability of completing the project on time. PERT networks show precedence relationships between activities and can identify the critical path. The technique is useful for non-repetitive projects with uncertain timelines, such as research and development.

Uploaded by

Amit Singh
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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3/13/2012

Program Evaluation & Review Technique (PERT) Program Evaluation & Review Technique (PERT)
Presented by: Anupam Kumar Reader SMS Varanasi PERT was developed by the US Navy for the planning and control of the Polaris missile program The emphasis of PERT is on completing the program in the shortest possible time. PERT has the ability to cope with uncertain activity completion times. e.g.
for a particular activity the most likely completion time is 4 weeks but it could be anywhere between 3 weeks and 8 weeks.

Program Evaluation & Review Technique (PERT)


In PERT activities are shown as
a network of precedence relationships using activity-on-arrow network construction

PERT
The procedure of PERT takes into consideration the following time estimates:
Te = Expected activity time To = Optimistic time Tp = Pessimistic time Tm = Most likely time = Event Standard Deviation Te = (To + 4Tm + Tp) / 6 = (Tp - To) / 6

PERT is used in Project management


for non-repetitive jobs (research and development work), where the time and cost estimates tend to be quite uncertain. This technique uses probabilistic time estimates.

PERT has
Multiple time estimates Probabilistic activity times

Illustration 1
Project planners have sought the judgment of various knowledgeable engineers, foremen and vendors and have developed the time estimate as follows.
Determine the critical path. What is the probability the project will be finished within 4 years? Calculate the overall variance for the project schedule.
Design Plant Select Site Select Vendor Select Personnel Prepare Site

Illustration 1 (Contd.)
Activity Description Number 12 23 24 26 35 45 46 57 67 78 To 10 2 1 2 8 15 3 2 6 4 Time Estimate Tm 12 8 4 3 12 18 5 4 9 6 Tp 16 36 5 4 20 30 8 8 12 14

Manufacture Generator Prepare Manual Install Generator Train Operator License Plant

Hint

3/13/2012

Illustration 1 (Soln.)
Activity Description Design Plant Select Site Select Vendor Select Personnel Prepare Site Manufacture Generator Prepare Manual Install Generator Train Operator License Plant Number 12 23 24 26 35 45 46 57 67 78 To 10 2 1 2 8 15 3 2 6 4 Tm 12 8 4 3 12 18 5 4 9 6 Time Estimate Tp 16 36 5 4 20 30 8 8 12 14 Te 12.33 11.67 3.67 3 12.67 19.5 5.17 4.33 9 7 2 1 32.11 0.44 0.11 4 6.25 0.694 1 1 2.78

PERT
The procedure of PERT takes into consideration the following time estimates:

Te = Expected activity time To = Optimistic time Tp = Pessimistic time Tm = Most likely time = Event Standard Deviation Te = (To + 4Tm + Tp) / 6

= (Tp - To) / 6 Z = (Tx - Te) /


Based on the value of Z, one can find the probability of the project getting completed at any time. If Tx < Te then value is the probability else probability is (0.5 P(Z))

PERT / CPM
Benefits Useful at many stages of project management Mathematically simple Give critical path and slack time Provide project documentation Useful in monitoring costs Questions that are answered Completion date? On Schedule? Within Budget? Critical Activities? How can the project be finished early at the least cost?

Limitation of PERT / CPM


The procedures of PERT / CPM can be applied only for activities which are clearly defined, independent and stable. The activities should have specified precedence relationships. The procedure lays over emphasis on critical paths.

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