Economic I mpact Assessment of

Agro- Met eorological Advisory

Service of NCMRWF






















Oct ober 2008



This is an I nt ernal Report from NCMRWF.
Permission should be obt ained from t he NCMRWF t o quot e from t his report .




NMRF/ PR/ 1/ 2008
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Nat i onal Cent r e f or Medi um Range Weat her For ecast i ng
Mi ni st r y of Ear t h Sci ences
A- 50, Sect or 62, NOI DA 201307, I NDI A
L.S.Rathore and Parvinder Maini

































Please cite this report as given below:

L.S.Rathore and Parvinder Maini, 2008: Economic Impact Assessment of Agro-
Meteorological Advisory Service of NCMRWF", Report no. NMRF/PR/01/2008,
104pp, Published by NCMRWF, Ministry of Earth Sciences, Government of India, A-50
Institutional Area, Sector- 62, NOIDA, UP, INDIA 201 307.


Front Cover:

Front cover shows a paddy field and a farmer


Project Report
on
ECONOMIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF
AGRO-METEOROLOGICAL ADVISORY SERVICE OF
NCMRWF



L.S.Rathore & Parvinder Maini




National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting
Ministry of Earth Sciences
Government of India

October 2008






































Contributed by:
Rahul Nigam, Sunil Kaushik, Girdhar Dewal; GSLHV Prasada Rao; M.B. Rajegowda;
S.N.Pasupalak; V.Geethalakshmi; H.R. Patel; Surender Singh; V U M Rao; D. Raji
Reddy; Surendra Singh; O.P. Gill; A.S.Rao; R.S. Singh; Gautam Saha; K.K.Gill; H.S.
Kushwaha; R.N.Sabale; S.R. Patel; Parminder Kaur Baweja; Mr. Manoj Lunagaria;
Vivekananda MB; Anupama Baliarsingh; P. Maheswari; Manoj Kr Tripathi; G.Sreenivas;
Deependra Singh; Bhagirath Singh; D.S. Shekhawat; Nukal Mandal; Ledang Lepcha;
Gurwinder Singh; Amod Kumar; B.I. Karande; Somnath Choudhury; Jagdish Thakur; M.
V.Sudheesh; N. Manikandan and scientists of NCMRWF

CONTENTS

Page
Message v
Foreword vi
Preface vii
Comments ix
Project Details 1-2
1 Introduction 3
2 NCMRWF and its Agrometeorological services 3-12
(a) Mandate 3
(b) NCMRWF's operational weather forecast system 4
(c) Location Specific forecast from T80/L18 model 5
(d) Agrometeorological Advisory Service of NCMRWF 8
(e)Dissemination of forecast & bulletin 9
(f) Feedback mechanism 11
(g) Verification of Location Specific Forecast issued to AAS units 11
3 Theoretical Framework of the study 14-28
(a) Why economic impact studies? 14
(b) Agromet Impact Study Paradigm 15
(c) Preliminary work 16
(d) Benefits or expectations from these studies 16
(e) Objective of the study 17
(f) Concept of the study 18
(g) Impact Assessment Analysis Framework 18
(h) Sample selection 19
(i) Survey & the questionnaire 20
(j) Crops selected by the units 21
(k) Format of the questionnaire/ Farm Survey schedule 21
4 Survey results of socio-economic features of farmers
29-33
(a) Age group of farmers 29
(b) Educational level of farmers 30
(c) Size of holding 30
(d) Major crops grown by the selected farmers in the 10 years 31
5. Survey results of economic impact of AAS (Quantity
and Price)
33-92
(a)Cereals 34-50
Rice 34
Wheat 45
(b) Millets 50-54
Finger Millet/ Ragi 50
Pearl Millet/ Bajra 52
ii

(c) Vegetables 55-66
Palak 55
Tomato 57
Capsicum 62
Onion 63
Potato 65
(d) Cash crops 67-75
Cotton 67
Jute 72
Tobacco 74
(e) Oil Seeds : Mustard 76-79
Mustard 76
(f) Pulses 80-85
Gram 80
Redgram/Tur 82
Field Bean 84
(g) Fruits 86-92

Banana 86

Coconut 89

Peach & Apricot 91
6. Survey results on "Willingness to pay for the Service" 93
7. Summary 93
8. Other accomplishments of the study 96
9. Limitations of the study
97
10. Scope for future work 98
10. References 100
11. Annexure-I 101
12. Annexure-II 104












iii


Preface


Agriculture in India depends heavily on weather and climate conditions. Weather
forecasts are useful for decisions regarding crop choice, crop variety, planting/harvesting
dates, and investments in farm inputs such as irrigation, fertilizer, pesticide, herbicide etc.
Hence, improved weather forecast based agromet advisory service greatly helps farmers
to take advantage of benevolent weather and mitigate the impacts of malevolent weather
situation.
Medium range weather forecast based agro-meteorological advisory service of
NCMRWF strives to improve and protect agricultural production, which is crucial for
food security of the country. The weather forecast and advisories have been helping the
farming community to take advantage of prognosticated weather conditions and form the
response strategy. On many occasions Agro-Meteorological Field Units have reportedly
saved the crop from unfavourable weather condition. Also the service, on many
instances, helped farmers over different regions to minimize crop losses as a result of
extreme weather conditions. Such reports were included in the Annual Progress Reports
submitted by the Agro-Advisory Service (AAS) units as well as discussed during
different review meetings of the project. But these were sporadic cases and could not be
inter-compared mainly due to non uniform use of the methodology. Hence, a project
entitled "Economic Impact of AAS of NCMRWF was formulated and launched in
November 2003 to assess the use and value of the service, with a view not only to assess
the economic impact of the service but also to assess its usage pattern and identify
strengths and weaknesses to further improve it.
The case studies include estimates for both perfect and imperfect forecasts. From
a practical perspective, perfect forecasts are an unrealistic expectation, and on the other
hand the less accurate forecasts also help farmers to determine farm management action
and add information for decision making. Also, reporting a range of advisories which are
based on weather forecasts with lower skill levels is also helpful in determining the
degree of accuracy that is needed to further improve the service. Most of the economic
evaluations of weather forecasts based advisories presented in the report are based on
comparison of a set of information obtained from users against non-users and recorded at
the individual farm level, on a per hectare basis. Majority of these studies, base the value
of weather forecasts on precipitation and temperature forecasts which can aid in
numerous farm level decision making strategies.
Assessing impacts of weather forecast application in farm management sector is a
stupendous task. The task becomes even more challenging if one is attempting to quantify
the value of weather forecast based agro-advisories. It was difficult to consider all crop
and all agro-climatic situations, hence a conscious decision was taken to undertake the
study at 15 representative sites covering principal crops. The project was implemented at
15 AAS units. The study period was spread over three years comprising of 3 Kharif and 3
Rabi seasons. National Centre for Agriculture Economics and Policy Research (NCAP),
who was engaged as consultant for the project, helped to formulate the study plan,
including devising sampling method, preparation of questionnaire, monitoring its
implementation and data analysis. The Nodal Officers at the AAS units have carried out
the study with utmost enthusiasm and zeal.
vii
We are thankful to Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) and; Secretary,
Department of Science & Technology (DST); Dr AK Bohra, Head, NCMRWF for
guiding and supporting the project. We take this opportunity to acknowledge the support
rendered by Director General of Meteorology, IMD, Integrated Finance Divisions of DST
as well as MoES and Sh Shmbhu Singh, Director, DST, for rendering support from time
to time. We profusely thank all the Nodal Officers, Technical Officers, the Project
Scientists at all 15 units and Dr. Rahul Nigam, Shri. Sunil Kaushik & Dr. Giridhar Dewal
(Junior Research Fellows) who worked hard to accomplish this study. We also thank all
the other officers, staff members and supporting personnel of NCMRWF whose names
may not appear explicitly but have contributed directly or indirectly towards the
preparation of this report.





L.S.Rathore
Parvinder Maini






























viii
Comments
Weather conditions play a significant role in reaping a good agricultural harvest.
Variable and uncertain weather is a pervasive fact that farmers have to cope up with, and
this has bearing on the livelihoods of the farm households. Timely weather information
enables the farmers to plan their farm operations in a way that not only minimizes the
costs and crop losses but also helps in maximizing the yield gains. NCMRWF is a
national agency that generates real-time weather forecast in the medium range using
advanced tools and techniques in the field of atmospheric science. These forecasts are
disseminated by NCMRWF to the farming community through its network of agro-
meteorological advisory service (AAS) units set up in 127 agro-climatic zones of the
country. Each AAS unit prepares and disseminates AAS bulletins based on the weather
forecasts received from NCMRWF and also provides user feedback as well.
The worthiness of investment for establishing a country-wide network of AAS
units can be justified only if the information disseminated by these units is utilized by the
farmers and is also helping them in making appropriate farm planning and management
decisions. There is a dearth of empirical evidences on how the weather forecasts might
contribute to the economic wellbeing of the farming community. In this context, the
proactive approach of NCMRWF to take up a study on economic impact assessment of
AAS is highly appreciable.
The study report begins with highlighting the significance of short and medium range
weather forecasts for making adjustments in daily farm operations, followed by detailed
description of how weather forecasts are generated and disseminated by the NCMRWF
through its AAS units. It is logical to think that dissemination of information in
vernacular languages to the farm households would have a higher degree of uptake by the
target groups. One of the noteworthy aspects of NCMRWF forecasts AAS bulletins is
that these are prepared and disseminated as location, season, weather, and crop-specific
farm level advisories in local languages. These also contain information related to
livestock, health and management decisions. This is made possible by the AAS units by
utilizing the expertise of its multi-disciplinary teams.
With sound theoretical framework and clear objectives, the report provides an
excellent impact assessment framework for capturing the farm level impacts of
information used by the farmers. Though there are a number of complex tools and
techniques for assessing the economic value of information use, the report rightly
emphasizes identifying and estimating farm level indicators to know the impact of AAS
advisories. This was necessary to effectively convey the results to the policy makers and
all other stakeholders for the use of AAS bulletins.
The report assesses the impact of AAS on cereals, millets, pulses, oilseeds, fruits &
vegetables and cash crops in 15 agro-ecological zones selected for the study. It is
interesting to note that in most of the cases, use of AAS advisories resulted in decline in
the cost of cultivation upto 25% for the study crops. In some cases, cost of cultivation did
increase upto 10% as a result of follow up action on AAS advisories, but this was more
than offset by the consequent increase in net returns upto 83%, with a modal value of
20%. The major crops which benefited most from the use of AAS service are paddy,
wheat, pearl millet and fruits and vegetables. This proves the usefulness of AAS
advisories. This also endorses the need for dissemination of AAS information to farmers
on a wider scale thereby convincing them about its positive impacts on a sustainable
ix
basis. Equally important but the most challenging task would be to enhance the accuracy
of weather forecast and to make the AAS more useful and demand-driven for the farm
households.
The study is a significant contribution on the use and economic impact of weather
forecast. However, aggregating the impact assessment results to the level of agro-
ecological zone would have added to the utility of the report. Overall, the report will
serve as a benchmark to take up further studies on impact of AAS services covering all
the agro-ecological regions of the country and also seeking more partners, including
private agencies. The suggestions made will be useful not only to the agency and
researchers, but also to the policy makers for coping up with adverse climatic conditions
and designing suitable strategies for a vibrant agricultural sector.
The report is well organized and reads well. However, to make it more compact,
detailed results and survey questionnaire can be presented in an Annexure.
The present study covered 15 AAS units, which were more active in dissemination of
AAS. It would be useful to extend such a study by including more AAS.
The future study can also improve analytical rigour, both in terms of the indicators
and analysis. For example, cost/loss analysis would be very useful to assess the real
economic value of weather forecast.
Also, more caution may be exercised while attributing the changes in costs, returns
and yields to the use of weather forecast, and assessing the statistical significance of
changes in cost, yield, etc.
The report should be published and disseminated widely.



Dr. Suresh Pal, Dr. Harbir Singh, Dr. Anjani Kumar,
Consultants,
National Centre for Agricultural Economics and Policy Research
DPS Marg, Pusa, New Delhi 110 012
x
1



Project Details
Title: Economic Impact Assessment of Agrometeorological Advisory
Services (AAS) of NCMRWF
1.

Name of Unit Scientist Involved State Agroclimatic zone
Anand Mr. H.R. Patel; Mr.
Manoj Lunagaria
Gujarat Middle Gujarat Zone-3
Bangalore Dr. M.B. Rajegowda;
Mr. Vivekananda MB
Karnataka Eastern Dry Zone
Bhubaneswar Dr. Pasupalak; Mrs.
Anupama Baliarsingh
Orissa East and South Eastern
Coastal Plain Zone of
Orissa
Coimbatore

Dr.V. Geethalakshmi;
Miss. P. Maheswari
Tamil Nadu Western Zone of Tamil
Nadu
Hisar Dr Surender Singh
Dr V U M Rao; Mr.
Manoj Kr Tripathi
Haryana Western Zone of
Haryana
Hyderabad

Dr. D. Raji Reddy
Dr. G.Sreenivas
Andhra
Pradesh
Southern Telangana
zone
Jaipur Dr. Surendra Singh;
Dr. O.P. Gill;
Mr.Deependra Singh
Rajasthan Semi Arid Eastern
Plain Zone (IIIa) of
Rajasthan State
Jodhpur

Dr. A.S.Rao; Dr. R.S.
Singh; Mr. Bhagirath
Singh; Mr. D.S.
Shekhawat
Rajasthan Arid plains of western
Rajasthan
Kalyani Dr. Gautam Saha; Mr.
Nukal Mandal; Mr.
Ledang Lepcha
West Bengal New Alluvial Zone
Ludhiana

Dr. K.K.Gill;
Mr.Gurwinder Singh
Punjab Central Plain Zone of
Punjab
Pantnagar Dr H.S. Kushwaha;
Dr. Amod Kumar
Uttaranchal Tarai and Bhabar Agro
- climatic Zone
Pune Dr. R.N.Sabale;
Mr.B.I. Karande;
Maharashtra Plain zone of
Maharashtra
Raipur Dr. S.R. Patel; Mr.
Somnath Choudhury
Chhatisgarh Chhattisgarh Plain
Solan,

Mrs. Parminder Kaur
Baweja; Mr. Jagdish
Thakur
Himachal
Pradesh
Sub-Humid, Sub-
Tropical Zone of HP
Trichur Dr. GSLHV Prasada
Rao; M. V.Sudheesh
N. Manikandan
Kerala Central zone
2

2 P.I. of the project
& Coordinator
Dr. L. S.Rathore
Scientist G & Advisor MoES
3 Co-PI of the
project & Scientist
Incharge
Dr. (Mrs.) Parvinder Maini
Scientist E, NCMRWF
4 JRF's associated
with the project
Dr. Rahul Nigam, Mr. Sunil Kaushik, Dr. Girdhar Dewal
5 Consultants Dr. Suresh Pal, Dr. Anjani Kumar, Dr. Harbir Singh, National
Centre for Agriculture Economics & Policy Research
6 Implementing
Institution(s) and
other collaborating
Institution(s):
Implementing Institutions
- Anand Agricultural University, Anand
- Acharya N. G. Ranga Agricultural University, Hyderabad
- Bidhan Chandra Krishi Viswa Vidyalaya , Kalyani
- CCS Haryana Agricultural University, Hisar
- Central Arid Zone Research Institute, Jodhpur
- Dr Y S Parmar University of Horticulture & Forestry, Solan
- G. B. Pant University of Agriculture & Technology, Pantnagar
- Indira Gandhi Krishi Vishwavidyalaya, Raipur
- Kerala Agricultural University , Thrissur
- Mahatma Phule Krishi Vidyapeeth, CASAM, Pune
- National Centre for Agricultural Economics & Policy Research
(NCAP), ICAR
- Orissa University of Agriculture & Technology, Bhubaneswar
- Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana
- Rajasthan Agricultural University,Durgapura, Jaipur
- Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore
- University of Agricultural Sciences, Bangalore
7 Name of the
funding agency:
with sanction
number and date
National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting
(NCMRWF)
NMRF/16/15-2003 dated 3
rd
Nov 2003
8 Date of
commencement
November, 2003
9 Planned date of
completion
31
st
October, 2006
10 Actual date of
completion
31
st
March, 2007








3

1. Introduction

Compared to various other sectors of economy, agriculture is unique, whose
output is largely dependent on weather conditions. The degree of success of agriculture
production and its economics is determined to a significant extent by how well weather
conditions corresponding to the optimal requirements of the crop are best exploited to
raise the crops. Also, how effectively adverse weather conditions, which cause moisture,
thermal, wind, radiation and biotic stress impeding growth and development of crop are
managed to minimize their adversity. Further to this, it also depends on management
aspects of preventing the crops from severe weather conditions.
Ideally, technical progress in agriculture should reduce overall dependence on
weather and climate. But the link between yield and weather/climate does not seem to be
decreasing. The effects of meteorological conditions are most pronounced on high-
yielding varieties of crop with increased sensitivities to environmental conditions,
requiring maximum optimization of water, air, thermal and nutritional conditions. The
biological potential of the plants manifests itself best in favorable conditions and is
severely reduced when conditions are adverse. This results in large fluctuations in annual
crop yields whose scale exceeds the increase in yields from the growth in agriculture.
For this reason, the role of agrometeorological information is increasing. Using
information on the effect of weather and climatic factors on agricultural productivity in
an educated manner can not only reduce damage, but can also make it possible to obtain
additional yield without significant financial outlays. Thus, the weather forecast based
agro-advisories assumes considerable importance for agricultural activities.
For effective planning and management of agricultural practices such as selection
of cultivar, sowing, need-based application of fertiliser, pesticides, insecticides, efficient
irrigation and harvest, weather forecasts in all temporal ranges are desirable.Weather
forecast in short and medium ranges greatly contribute towards making short-term
adjustments in daily agricultural operations which minimize losses resulting from adverse
weather conditions and improve yield and quantity and quality of agricultural
productions.

2. NCMRWF and its Agro-meteorological services

(a) Mandate

During April-May 1983, unusual persistent cloudiness resulted in excessive losses
of wheat crop. Former Prime Minister (Late) Smt Indira Gandhi suggested serious
examination of variations and fluctuations in weather and exploration of ways and means
to adjust the cropping pattern according to likely weather conditions. The apex committee
set up to examine these aspects, recommended setting up a National Centre for Medium
Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) in the country having capability to forewarn
farmers several days in advance. Government of India established the NCMRWF under
Department of Science & Technology (DST) in early 1988 in mission mode with the
following mandate;


Development of global and regional scale numerical weather prediction (NWP)
models for forecasting weather in medium range (3-10 days) time scale taking full
4

advantage of existing and concurrent developments both in India and abroad in
the field of atmospheric science
Set-up a state-of-the-art supercomputing infrastructure to develop suitable NWP
models to issue medium range weather forecasts
To inform and guide the farmers in advance to undertake various farming
activities based on the expected weather
Set-up agro meteorological advisory service (AAS) units, each unit representing
one of the 127 agro climatic zones spread all over India, to prepare/ issue/
disseminate AAS Bulletins based on weather forecasts and to provide user
feedback as well
Set-up a stable/fast dedicated communication network with AAS units


(b) NCMRWF's operational weather forecast system

To meet the above objectives, NCMRWF has established a Global Data
Assimilation and Forecasting System (GDAFS). This mainly consists of four components
viz. (i) data processing, (ii) quality control, (iii) objective analysis (spectral statistical
interpolation scheme) and (iv) forecast model.
The atmosphere being always in motion, mathematical equations that describe the
hydrodynamical and thermodynamical properties of the fluid are utilised to describe its
state. These equations are solved in steps of small increments of time, repeatedly to
obtain the future state of the atmosphere in the desired time scale. To determine the future
state of the atmosphere one needs to know the initial state of the atmosphere at any given
point of time. The initial state is determined by a set of meteorological observations,
which are taken both at surface and at different vertical levels in the atmosphere.
Forecasting beyond short range necessitates the use of meteorological data from all over
the globe to capture the movement and genesis of weather systems in medium range.
As part of common international agenda under the aegis of the World
Meteorological Organization (WMO), all member countries of the WMO take
meteorological observations at specified time and disseminate the same through Global
Telecommunication System (GTS) for mutual exchange. GTS has a real-time data flow
of more than 12000 surface stations, 1000 selected merchant ships and 1200 upper air
stations. Beside these data a huge volume of aircraft and satellite observations are
assimilated to define the initial condition of the atmosphere. Over India, in addition to the
conventional data obtained via GTS, which includes observations from over 230 synoptic
stations and 35-radio sonde observations, a substantial amount of non-GTS (non-
conventional) meteorological data is also acquired (Das Gupta & Rizvi, 2001). This
includes the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager, cloud motion winds from Kalpana
(Indian satellite), and Advanced TIROS (Television and Infrared Observation Satellite)
Operational Vertical Sounder (ATOVS) data. In addition some local data from 25 surface
observatories and 3 upper air observatories located over north-west hilly regions of the
country are also assimilated in T80 forecast system. Integration of such a huge amount of
data in operational mode on real-time basis and producing the forecast in the medium
range time scale is a formidable task, which can be made possible only with the help of a
high speed computer. NCMRWF has the state of art supercomputers since 1988. The
latest supercomputer installed at NCMRWF is the Cray-X1 E with 64 processors.
All these observations are assimilated four times a day viz. 0000, 0600, 1200 and
5

1800 UTC. Global data assimilation & forecast system (GDAFS) operational at
NCMRWF is a six-hourly intermittent three-dimensional assimilation scheme at T80/L18
resolution along with a state of art global NWP model at same T80/L18 resolution.
GDAFS utilizes all data collected within 3-h of the assimilation time and received
within a specified cut-off period (~ 12-h for 0000 UTC). After the data are processed and
quality checked, data analysis is performed. The Spectral Statistical Interpolation
analysis scheme used at NCMRWF is a three-dimensional multivariate analysis scheme
in which data is assimilated in every 6-hour cycle (starting at 0600 UTC) to generate the
initial conditions for the forecast model. The medium range forecast is then produced
using the initial conditions generated for 0000 UTC. Once the forecast is obtained, it is
post-processed to obtain location specific forecast. Figure 2.1 shows a schematic diagram
of the GDAFS operational at NCMRWF

(c) Location Specific forecast from T80/L18 model
Weather elements like cloud amount, rainfall, maximum temperature, minimum
temperature, wind speed and wind direction play an important role in agriculture and
other economic activities in India. Hence, their accurate prediction is essential to make
strategic decisions. The objective forecast for the above meteorological parameters is
directly obtained from T80/L18 model operational at NCMRWF and is called the direct
model output (DMO) forecast. However, their accuracy may be fairly low. One reason is
that the NWP models are not able to resolve the local orographic features because of the
various approximations under which they are developed. The other reason may be
attributed to the errors in the NWP models because of coarse representation of model
topography and deficiencies in model physics. The unique geographical location of India
with oceans on three sides and the Great Himalayas on the fourth adds to the
complexities.
Statistical-Dynamical models (SD) are developed to overcome this difficulty by
developing empirical relationships between the concurrent circulation, certain
thermodynamic quantities, and the resulting precipitation (Maini, 2006). The SD models
incorporate numerically forecast data into a statistical prediction framework. These
models provide a link between the raw output of a NWP model and weather parameters
that are required in operational forecasts.
The final local weather forecast for the surface weather parameters is obtained by
using information from these two types of objective forecasts and the prevailing synoptic
situation around the location of interest. A group of scientists then use the information
obtained above to prepare the final forecast to be disseminated to the farming community.
The final forecast is a blend of objective and subjective judgement of the forecast and is
hence called the man-machine mix approach (Kumar et al, 2000; Maini et al, 2004) . A
forecast table designed at NCMRWF specifically for giving forecast to the user
community is shown in Table 2.1.
6

Figure 2.1: Schematic diagram showing the global data assimilation and forecast system at
NCMRWF
6 HR FCST 6 HR FCST 6 HR FCST
GLOBAL DATA ASSIMILATION SYSTEM
06 12 18 00

GTS DATA
RTH IMD
DATA RECEPTION AT NCMRWF
DATA PROCESSING & QUALITY CONTROL
ANALYSIS ANALYSIS ANALYSIS ANALYSIS
GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL (7days forecast)
STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING TO LOCATION SPECIFIC
ARCHIVAL
FORECAST DISSEMINATION TO USERS
Post Processing
7

Table 2.1. Forecast Table
NATIONAL CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECASTING
Station: Delhi Date:31- 7-2007 Time: 03 GMT
Coordinates: 28.58 N 77.20 E To
ALTITUDE: 229 meters NODAL OFFICER,AGRO ADVISORY SERVICE UNIT
BASED UPON 00GMT ANALYSIS FOR:30-7-2007 DELHI ,DELHI

SR
NO.

WEATHER
PARAMETERS

DIRECT MODEL OUTPUT
T-80 MODEL
31-7 1-8 2-8 3-8
48hr 72hr 92hr 120hr

DIRECT MODEL OUTPUT
T-254 MODEL
31-7 1-8 2-8 3-8
48hr 72hr 96hr 120hr

STATISTICAL
INTERPRETATION
30-7 31-7 1-8 2-8
24hr 48hr 72hr 96hr

FINAL

31-7 1-8 2-8 3-8
24hr 48hr 72hr 96hr

1

MSL PRESSURE hp

1000. 1000 . 999. 997 .

997. 997. 1000. 1000.





2

CL COVER okta E
M

0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0

7 8 8 8
8 8 8 8



3 4 4 6


3

PROB. OF PRECIP.
PRECIPITATIONmm
PPM eqn PRECIP.


0.4 0.0 8.3 10.8


0.0 0.3 7.4 20.0

0.70 0.46 0.75 0.69
0.1 0.0 1.0 0.2
0.0 0.0 1.0 0.2

0 5 5 15

4

WIND SPEED kmph

7 7 5 5

7 15 10 14



5 5 4 4

5

WIND DIRECT.deg

158 160 161 157

101 109 124 111



160 160 160 160

6

MAX. TEMP. deg cel

36.2 36.3 35.8 35.5
1.2 0.1 -0.5 -0.3

43.6 41.3 33.2 31.4
0.4 -1.3 -8.1 -1.8

34.0 35.6 35.3 35.3
1.6 -0.3 0.0

1 0 -1 0

7

MIN. TEMP. deg cel

26.6 26.5 27.3 27.8
0.5 -0.1 0.8 0.5

32.0 28.3 26.7 25.8
-0.3 -3.7 -1.6 -0.9

27.2 27.2 26.5 27.5
0.0 -0.5 0.8

0 0 1 0

8

R.H. MAXIMUM(%)

79 80 83 89

55 78 86 93





9

R.H. MINIMUM(%)

32 43 45 49
25 29 56 68






10


WIND DIR. FREQ.
0---45
45---90
90---135
135---180
180---225
225---270
270---315
315---360


1.0 0.0 0.0 4.2
2.1 0.0 0.0 9.4
10.4 0.0 0.0 9.4
52.1 60.4 67.7 45.8
13.5 13.5 16.7 9.4
11.5 26.0 15.6 18.7
7.3 0.0 0.0 2.1
2.1 0.0 0.0 1.0


4.2 8.3 0.0 0.0
25.0 20.8 20.8 12.5
33.3 70.8 33.3 87.5
8.3 0.0 29.2 0.0
12.5 0.0 16.7 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
8.3 0.0 0.0 0.0


WEEKLY CUMULATIVE RAINFALL FORECAST
FOR NEXT WEEK:-

MODEL:T80: 62.5 t254: 62.7 mm , FINAL : 45mm


8
(d) Agrometeorological Advisory Service of NCMRWF
One of the main objectives of NCMRWF was to give weather-based agromet
advisories to the farming community. The NCMRWF in collaboration with the India
Meteorological Department (IMD), Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR)
and State Agricultural Universities (SAUs) had been operating Agrometeorological
Advisory Service (AAS) at the scale of Agroclimatic Zone till March 2007. For this
NCMRWF was using the numerical weather prediction based forecasting system
operational at the centre. The country is divided into 127 agro-climatic zones with
each zone covering about 4-6 districts. Agromet co-ordination cells have been
working at ICAR and IMD to look after the requirements of project. SAUs have
appointed Nodal Officers for its smooth implementation. Agromet Advisory Bulletins
comprising of expert advice on crop, soils and weather are made available to the
farming community. The AAS set-up exhibits a multi-institutional multidisciplinary
synergy to render an operational service for the use of farming community.
Over the past decade and a half, NCMRWF established an impressive
infrastructure and also developed suitable methodologies for giving quantitative
medium range weather forecasting services. Starting with 5 units in 1991, the Centre
established 107 Agrometereological Advisory Services (AAS) Units in a phased
manner till 2007..
The AAS units are located within SAU headquarters, their regional research
stations and ICAR institutes. All these units were provided with annual Grand-in-Aid
and one manpower equivalent to a Technical officer to effectively disseminate the
Agromet Advisory Service and also to give its feedback to NCMRWF
AAS Units had been receiving weather forecast from NCMRWF on bi-weekly
basis (Tuesday and Friday). The forecast was issued for six parameters viz., cloud
amount (okta), precipitation (mm), wind speed (kmph), wind direction (degree),
maximum temperature (
o
C) and minimum temperature (
o
C), in quantitative terms for
next four days. In addition, the cumulative weekly precipitation (mm) was also
provided (Table 2.1)
The Nodal Officer in charge of the AAS Unit, generally an
Agrometeorologist, in co-operation with an inter-disciplinary group of agricultural
and extension specialists, such as, Plant Pathologists, Soil Scientists, Entomologists,
Horticulturists, Agronomists etc., formulated the agro advisories. These advisories
contained location specific and crop specific farm level advisories prepared in local
language containing description of prevailing weather, soil & crop condition, and
suggestions for taking appropriate measures to minimise the loss and also, optimise
input in the form of irrigation, fertiliser or pesticides. A format of AAS bulletin
devised at NCMRWF (NCMRWF/DST, 1999) shown in Table 2.2 had been
circulated to all the AAS units. This bulletin basically contained information on
weather: current and past week; crop information and weather based advisories. The
main stress was given to the preparation of advisories. Advisory content varied with
location, season, weather, crop condition, and local management practices. All units
were advised to take output from crop and pest disease models wherever possible.
This helped to increase the timeliness of spraying operations, irrigation applications,
fertilizer applications, etc. The advisories also served as an early warning function,
alerting producers to the implications of various weather events such as extreme
temperatures, heavy rains, floods, and strong winds.
9
The entire framework of AAS, developed and successfully demonstrated by
NCMRWF has since been transferred to the India Meteorological Department(IMD)
under MoES for extending the service (in operational mode) to the districts under
these agro-climatic zones

Table 2.2 Format for AAB:
Weather Information
o Weather summary of the preceding week or since last bulletin
including salient weather features like heavy rain, cyclones,
depressions, freezing temperatures etc.,
o Climatic normals for the week;
o Weather forecast,
o Crop Moisture Index, Drought severity index, etc., for the past weeks,
etc.

Crop Information
o Type, state and phenological stage of crops;
o Information on pests and diseases; and
o Information on crop stresses.

Advisory
o Crop-wise farm management information tailored to weather-sensitive
agricultural practices like sowing, irrigation scheduling, pest and
disease control operations, fertilizer application. It also contain,
special warnings for taking appropriate measures for saving crop from
malevolent weather, if any. Information on crop planning, variety
selection, selection of proper sowing/harvesting time etc. are included.
Location specific package and practices for cultivation of different
crops suitable for the agroclimatic zone are also provided
o Spraying conditions for insect, weed, or disease problems
o Problems related to animal health and their products.
o Wildfire rating forecasts in wildfire prone areas,
o Livestock management information for housing, health and nutrition,
etc..

(e) Dissemination of forecast and bulletin
For an effective communication, NCMRWF had provided all AAS units with
a fixed landline with STD facility, and a high-end personal computer with Internet
facility. The forecast was disseminated from NCMRWF to the AAS units on bi-
weekly basis through fax, phone and e-mail. The forecast tables were also uploaded
on the NCMRWF server for easy accessibility through the ftp server.
Once the weather based AAS bulletins were prepared by the AAS units these
AAS bulletins were disseminated to the farmers of the region through mass media,
such as T.V., All India Radio and Newspapers in vernacular language and also
through personal contact with the progressive farmers through extension workers. The
bulletin was also disseminated to the contact farmers in several villages by phone,
post, poster and hand delivery. Agricultural universities also conducted certain Public
Awareness programmes to educate farmers about usage of Agro advisories in the farm
10
operation through mass media such as TV, Radio, Press and also through Kisan Mela,
in which Nodal Officers of AAS units participate and make farmers aware about its
usage in their farming operations. Media plays a crucial role in the dissemination of
the AAS and can be taken as the nodal agency for effective outreach to the end users
that is the farmer. The service, after its transfer to IMD continues to be provided with
all these facilities by IMD for effective outreach. Figure 2.2 shows the complete flow
diagram of the Agrometeorological advisory service of NCMRWF
(NCMRWF/DST,1999)



















The status of issue of forecast/Advisory till 2007, and dissemination of
advisories to the media is given in the following table:
Forecast issued to = 107 Units
Bi-weekly forecast issued to = 80 Units
Fi gur e 2.2. AGROMETEOROLOGI CAL ADVI SORY SERVI CE OF NCMRWF

11
No. of units issuing advisories = 105 Units
No. of units Disseminating AABs to News Papers = 93 Units
No. of units Disseminating AABs to AIR = 70 Units
No. of units Disseminating AABs to Doordarshan = 41 Units
No. of units Disseminating AABs to Cable TV = 28 Units

In addition to the above NCMRWF also prepared an All India composite
Agro-advisory bulletin in close collaboration with IMD with inputs from AAS units.
This national composite agromet-advisory bulletin is sent to all the concerned heads
of government agencies and also dispatched to the entire state government secretariat.

(f) Feedback mechanism
Periodic feedback on worthiness of forecast and usefulness of advisories is
also obtained by NCMRWF. This feedback is obtained weekly, monthly and also
annually. Feedback from selected farmers and Research & Development under
different SAU's are being documented on whether they have adjusted their day-to-day
farming operations in response to the advice laid in AAS and also on their additional
requirements. Annual review meetings are conducted for the evaluation of the use of
AAS and weather information. These meetings are held at different SAUs on rotation.
All nodal officers from the AMFU's, and scientists from NCMRWF, IMD, and ICAR
participate in this meet for the assessment of the performance of AAS units. Also,
further possible ways for improvement in the existing system are discussed.

(g) Verification of Location Specific Forecast issued to AAS units
In order to evaluate the skill of the forecasts issued to the AAS units, a
verification mechanism has been put in place wherein the verification is done by the
service provider (NCMRWF) as well as the user community (farmers). A uniform
verification procedure has been developed and circulated to all the AAS units.
Therefore rigorous verification of the forecast is done as a routine for all seasons.
Table 2.3 (a&b) gives the skill of forecast during the period of study (NCMRWF/DST
2005, 2006, 2007). The parameters considered here are rainfall, maximum/minimum
temperature. Here the skill of rainfall occurrence/non-occurrence is given in terms of
Ratio Score (RS) and HK Score(HKS) . The skill of maximum temperature (T
x
) and
minimum temperature (T
n
) is given in terms of correlation (CC) and RMSE. The
scores are mentioned in detail in Annexure-I. The verification is done during the two
main seasons namely; Kharif and Rabi for all the 15 units during the period of survey.
For evaluation of usability of forecast of quantitative precipitation and temperature an
error structure has been formulated and is given in Annexure-I.
It is seen from Table 2.3a that while the skill of Yes/No rainfall forecast is
around 90% during Rabi, it is around 69% in Kharif. Maximum temperature has a
correlation of 65-70% and an RMSE of 2-3
o
C in Kharif while in Rabi the correlation
is around 60%. On the other hand the correlation of minimum temperature forecast is
less in Kharif and more in Rabi season. It is around 50% in Kharif and around 65% in
Rabi season. On the other hand the RMSE of T
n
is lower than T
x
and is in the range of
1-2.5
o
C during both the seasons. The verification of wind speed, cloud cover shows
that both the parameters have reasonably good skill, but the wind direction forecast
needs improvement.

12
Table 2.3a: Skill of forecast during the study period

RAIN Tn Tx STATION
RS HKS RMSE CC RMSE CC
Kharif
Anand 74 0.45 1.59 0.68 1.97 0.87
Bangalore 57 0.19 1.29 0.17 1.68 0.7
Bhubaneshwar 65 0.3 1.65 0.54 2.7 0.74
Hisar 75 0.38 2.61 0.55 2.7 0.6
Coimbatore 60 0.13 1.67 0.29 2.33 0.33
Hyderabad 56 0.24 1.53 0.64 2.54 0.81
Jaipur 62 0.25 2.49 0.51 3.13 0.6
Jodhpur 80 0.48 2.78 0.45 2.97 0.65
Ludhiana 70 0.31 2.61 0.6 3.69 0.53
Nadia 78 0.33 1.6 0.28 2.24 0.35
Pantnagar 72 0.56 1.85 0.39 2.63 0.77
Pune 67 0.2 1.21 0.54 1.88 0.54
Raipur 67 0.33 1.79 0.58 2.36 0.81
Solan 70 0.42 1.87 0.56 2.23 0.82
Thrissur 82 0.5 1.22 0.2 1.66 0.6
Rabi
Anand 92 0.37 2.35 0.69 1.54 0.8
Bangalore 84 0.25 1.94 0.64 1.64 0.37
Bhubaneshwar 98 0.41 2.35 0.32 1.93 0.41
Hisar 96 0.3 2.12 0.68 2.85 0.7
Coimbatore 87 0.42 1.89 0.58 1.89 0.61
Hyderabad 95 0.39 1.98 0.74 1.5 0.66
Jaipur 91 0.22 2.99 0.67 2.07 0.76
Jodhpur 96 0.32 2.34 0.69 1.68 0.74
Ludhiana 87 0.38 2.86 0.62 2.41 0.68
Nadia 93 0.74 2.4 0.61 2.64 0.51
Pantnagar 92 0.46 2.14 0.77 3.09 0.31
Pune 98 0.5 2.67 0.53 2.45 0.56
Raipur 94 0.41 2.43 0.52 2.5 0.6
Solan 87 0.56 2.13 0.77 2.86 0.69
Thrissur 89 0.22 1.31 0.62 1.76 0.22

The usability of the temperature and rainfall forecast is given in Table 2.3b. While in
the case of quantitative precipitation, the Rabi forecast (90-98%) is better than the
Kharif rainfall (60-80%), in temperature forecast it is seen that the usability of
temperature forecast is good in both the seasons with maximum temperature having
higher usability in Rabi (50-90%) and minimum temperature in Kharif (60-95%).

13
Table 2.3b: Usability of rainfall and temperature forecast during the study
period

Rain Tn Tx
Kharif season
(Monsoon Season)
Percentage of Correct
Anand 66.78% 82.84% 70.89%
Bangalore 68.02% 97.61% 77.28%
Bhubaneshwar 54.34% 89.07% 58.58%
Hisar 88.89% 70.73% 65.61%
Coimbatore 85.88% 82.68% 75.21%
Hyderabad 55.87% 89.71% 70.33%
Jaipur 82.67% 71.31% 57.37%
Jodhpur 75.89% 75.23% 60.33%
Ludhiana 84.57% 61.51% 59.84%
Nadia 65.43% 84.03% 63.73%
Pantnagar 57.17% 56.94% 40.27%
Pune 61.35% 90.59% 75.13%
Raipur 67.44% 77.20% 65.99%
Solan 60.25% 78.78% 64.94%
Thrissur 66.44% 95.84% 87.50%
Rabi Season
(Winter Season)
Percentage of Correct
Anand 99.23% 68.48% 89.34%
Bangalore 98.66% 74.67% 88.57%
Bhubaneshwar 98.65% 56.58% 71.25%
Hisar 95.77% 56.33% 58.62%
Coimbatore 95.95% 72.73% 85.19%
Hyderabad 96.11% 90.00% 87.30%
Jaipur 100.00% 62.07% 67.81%
Jodhpur 100.00% 65.49% 71.33%
Ludhiana 90.00% 59.77% 64.37%
Nadia 100.00% 53.33% 65.34%
Pantnagar 94.59% 56.25% 43.75%
Pune 100.00% 66.24% 87.50%
Raipur 96.34% 65.52% 79.31%
Solan 96.92% 65.38% 60.26%
Thrissur 100.00% 90.25% 82.98%
14
3. Theoretical framework of the study

(a) Why economic impact studies?
User requirement
The types of economic decision which require agro- meteorological products
can be categorized according to three time scales:
o Long-term planning for agricultural development (rational allocation of
land, choice of crops, selection of species and varieties)
o Medium-term planning for the next season (choice of farming area, crop
varieties, etc.);
o Short-term decisions regarding imminent farming operations (choice of
optimal sowing and harvest dates, dates and quantities for fertilization,
dates and quantities for irrigation, etc.).
Each type of decision requires the appropriate meteorological information. In
the first of the three categories listed above, this will involve basic climatological data
and long-term forecasts. In the second case, it will involve seasonal forecasts,
monthly forecasts, and various agrometeorological forecasts on moisture availability,
yield etc. In the third case, it will involve short-term forecasts, medium-term
forecasts, and special recommendations for crop-growth. In the present study, the
problem has been addressed only to the third requirement of the user.
Service requirement
Internal perspectives
o To establish the worthiness of the service: Economic impact has to be
carried out in order to know its potential benefits.
o Service credibility: Credibility is always closely linked to forecast
verification. Hence, economic impact studies need to be carried out to
establish credibility in the eyes of the potential users if optimum benefits
are to be derived from the marketing of the service.
o Service accountability or justification: Assessment of the service helps
justifying the costs and the ongoing need and existence of such a service.
External perspectives
o By quantifying the benefits of this service one comes to know the needs of
the users, their level of satisfaction and their further expectation.
Consequently the progressive user provides a positive feedback &
increased response of progressive users drive the service. The outcome
includes better services over time, services with better utility and most
likely with better-perceived accuracy. Secondly, through these interactive
educational initiatives, policy makers and other clients become sensitized
to and better informed about the value of these services, which results in
improved decision making.
National perspective
o On the national scale, more knowledgeable decision-making leads to
improved practices and attitudes, enhanced productivity, a more nationally
relevant economic society and more socially acceptable practices.


15
(b) Agromet Impact Study Paradigm

In general it is difficult to assess the economic benefit of any advisory service
given to take measure against catastrophes or life threatening situations, but it is
possible to assess the economic benefit of the agrometeorological services
(Nicholls,1996). Although there does not exist any general simulation model for the
evaluation of the economic benefits of meteorological assistance to agriculture,
however three points can always be defined:
evident effective benefit
probable effective benefit
theoretically maximum possible benefit
Figure 3.1 shows a schematic diagram to study the impact of agro-meteorological
information on agriculture



NCMRWF SAU/ICAR Farmer Impact
(AMFUs)






Meteorologist Ag. Scientist User Production


Figure 3.1: A schematic diagram to show the impact of agromet services


Weather information content which is part of the advisory bulletin should contain
information on what is going to happen (precipitation, temperature, cloud, wind) and
when is it going to happen at the given area of interest to the farmer. The information
is disseminated through mass media dissemination agencies including internet, Radio
/ TV and Phone/Fax.
Weather information is translated into farm level action oriented advice by the
agricultural scientists at AgroMeteorological Field Units. It contains weather based
advisories including time and method of sowing, time and amount of irrigation, time
and method of fertilizer/pesticide application etc.
Agriculture impacts include changes experienced by farmers that have
meaning or value positive (a benefit effect) or negative (an undesired effect) helping
them to decide selection of crop/variety, sowing/harvesting time, irrigation
management, fertilizer management, pest/disease management and other intercultural
operations. This formed the backbone of the economic impact study carried out by
NCMRWF in collaboration with the AAS units.


Weather
Information
AgroMet
Advisories
Awareness
Access
Use/Decision
Action/Behavior
Changed -
Practice
Value
Benefit
16
(c) Preliminary work

Once the outreach of the service and skill of the forecast was established, it
was pertinent to study the impact of the service in terms of economic gain/loss. It was
felt that an awareness of the economic value of agrometeorological information can
be of significant assistance in selecting decision-making strategies in agriculture.
Hence, AAS units were directed to assess the economic benefits accrued due to AAS.
Some of the units reported the benefits accrued by the farmers, but mostly in
qualitative terms.
The AAS units assessed the Economic Impact in their own way and the results
could not be inter-compared due to absence of uniform impact criteria. For example,
the farmers of Kovilpatti (Tamil Nadu) region adopted weather based advice of early
sowing of Sorghum, Cotton and Pulses as good rainfall was predicted during 3
rd
week
of September 1995 nearly 20 days before the normal date of commencement of
North-East monsoon rainfall. They received nearly 50% increase in yield in all the
three crops. On the other hand, the farmers of Pune region who could not follow the
advice on delayed onset of southwest monsoon faced complete failure of crop due to
inadequate moisture for germination. Farmers of Ludhiana could save 30% of the
total production of Potato and Tomato due to frequent and light irrigation of the crop
as the NCMRWF predicted occurrence of frost on account of considerable fall in the
minimum temperature. For Coimbatore, advisories on strong winds during July, 1995
have helped saving standing Banana crop worth Rs 10,000 per acre. The farmers of
Raipur could save up to Rs.5000/- in the case of Chilly and up to Rs 10,000/- in the
case of Potato per hectare due to skipping of one irrigation after heavy rainfall
forecast at crucial phenophase of the crops. Following the wind speed and direction
forecasts, they saved at least 20% cost of the insecticides. At Chennai, specific
instances have shown that by timely forecast of rainfall, farmers could prevent
spoilage of feed, chick mortality, coccidiosis, lung infection among birds and other
bacterial infections.
Although there existed some awareness about the impact of the weather based
agro advisories on the farming community, but there was lack of a clear and precise
understanding of the impact. Therefore there was a need to carry out this impact
assessment study using specified impact criteria and with a uniform pattern of study


(d) Benefits or expectations from these studies

Although the AAS units had been making concerted efforts to carry out
economic impact of the service provided by NCMRWF, yet an urgent need was felt to
put in more serious efforts and to have a uniform procedure for assessing the
economic impact of the service. Hence, to carry out a more extensive study DST
launched a pilot project entitled Economic Impact of AAS of NCMRWF in the year
2003. In order to have an evaluation of the AAS at different agroclimatic zones and
different weather conditions, 15 AAS units in different parts of the country were
chosen. The project was spread over three years covering 3 Kharif and 3 Rabi
seasons. National Centre for Agricultural Economics & Policy Research (NCAP) was
given consultancy for preparing concept note, questionnaire, methodology and final
review of the reports prepared by the AAS units/NCMRWF. NCMRWF on its part
17
was responsible for conceptualizing and executing the study, providing grants and
bringing out the final report. Therefore, it was envisaged that the project
Will give an insight into forecasting skill and reach of the service and also its
economic value in terms of money,
Will help in taking better decision. Application of these methods for assessing
economic and social benefits can produce information leading to the efficient
production and supply of services,
Will help in cultivar selection, their dates of sowing/planting/transplanting,
dates of intercultural operations, dates of harvesting and also performing post
harvest operations,
Will give site-specific forecast information and corresponding advisories that
will help maximize output and avert crop damage or loss. The service will also
help growers anticipate and plan for chemical applications, irrigation
scheduling, disease and pest outbreaks and many more weather related
agriculture-specific operations,
Will give agromet advisories that will increase profits by consistently
delivering actionable weather information, analysis and decision support for
farming situations such as:
o To manage pests through forecast of relative humidity, temperature
and wind,
o Progressive water management through rainfall forecasts,
o To protect crop from thermal stress through forecasting of extreme
temperature conditions.
Above all, along with many other situations the study will help increase the crop
protection, hence knowledge needs to improve the bottom line, protect resources and
preserve the environment.

(e) Objective of the study
The prime intent of the study was to assess use and value of the agro-
advisories which are based on four day quantitative weather forecast for important
meteorological elements at the scale of the agroclimatic zone. It encompasses the
aspects related to the skill of weather forecast (Katz & Murphy,1997), quality and
relevance of the forecast based advisories, acceptance by the user community, user
satisfaction leading to its consumption and ultimately quantifying the benefits/losses
accrued due to implementing the advisories for managing a wide spectrum of crop
situations spread over different agroclimatic zones of the country. It also includes the
related components of AAS such as dissemination of the bulletins, out reach of the
service, and capacity of the user community in adapting the advisories by different
sections of the society under varying education, gender & socio-economic classes.
The prime objectives are as under;
Adoption of the forecast by the user community and its realization. It further
helps to understand the linkages between information, users and impacts
To assess the effectiveness and potential benefits of Agro-Advisory services
by taking into account the AAS contact and non-contact farmers.
To work out weather based farming strategies based on the economic impact
of Agromet Advisory Services.
To account and assess the needs of the farming community for increasing the
farm produce.
18
To assess the economic impact of the AAS services in various crops under
different ago climatic conditions.
The Economic Impact of AAS, however does not cover the evaluation of the
capacity and methods of weather forecasts, which is beyond the scope of this study.
The impact assessment framework entails reliability and adequacy of weather
forecasts, mechanism of flow of weather information, extent of use of weather by
farmers and economic and other impacts.

(f) Concept of the study

The concept of the study is based on the
Assessment of ability of forecast based advisory to influence farmers
decisions on
o Selection of cultivar
o Selection of optimum sowing time
o Conducting farm operation in tune with weather forecasts leading to
energy saving, enhancing the efficacy of inputs such as fertilizer,
pesticides etc.
o Cutting costs of agriculture inputs such as pesticide, irrigation, fertilizer,
herbicide etc.
o Saving of crop from adverse weather
Find out Economic and other benefits due to use of forecast in farm
management decisions
Determine the saving the crop from adverse weather
Assessing impact of favorable weather on overall growth, development and
final yield of the crop.

(g) Impact Assessment Analysis Framework

A number of approaches and methods have been used in the literature to
assess the value and impact of weather forecast. Important among these are
assessment of the value of weather forecast, economic benefits to farmers or
individual farms, and economic and social benefits for a sector or country as a whole.
The cost-loss analysis, expected utility approach, stochastic programming approach,
simulation model, economic surplus, and computable general equilibrium model are
most frequently used methods.
The selection of analytical method is determined by objective of the study,
availability of required data and computational skills. Since main objective of the
study is to assess the adequacy, use and impact of the medium range weather
forecasts, an analytical method focusing more on farm level impact was considered to
be most appropriate. In the present study, the selection of method is also influenced
by the fact that policy makers can easily understand the results and the method can be
applied with moderate analytical skill. Therefore, NCAP proposed use of simple
farm-level indicators for the impact assessment. The impact assessment framework
proposed included estimation of accuracy of the forecast, adequacy and reliability of
the forecast from farmers perspective, use of the forecast, and farm-level impacts.
19
Table 3.1 describes the framework to be followed for assessing the usefulness of
weather forecast through the survey and Table 3.2 gives the economic impact
indicators to be considered

Table 3.1: Use of Weather Forecast
Impact area Indicator
Perception of stakeholders Reliability, dissemination, adequacy, value
addition
Awareness about AAS Farmers knowing AAS (%)
Usefulness-farmers perception Farmers considering it useful (%)
Use of information Farmers using weather forecasts (%)

Table 3.2: Economic Impact Indicators
Parameters Indicators
Yield Difference in yield of AAS and non-AAS farmers
Cost - Difference between total paid out cost (per acre) of AAS and
non-AAS contact farmers
- Changes in cost per unit of output
Profitability - Difference in return over paid out cost (Rs/acre) of AAS and
non-AAS contact farmers
Utility Increase in utilization by farmer for maneuvering cultural
operations

(h) Sample selection

Considering the importance of the sampling in the study, care was taken to
identify the sample which is true representative of the class. Thus the farmers were
selected based on their size of holding (small, medium, large), educational
background, size of the family, types of crops grown. Section 4 gives the
demographic details of the samples chosen by each unit. As it was difficult to collate
information from a very large or not-interested farmers the sampling was done based
on the following criterion.
15 AAS units out of a total 127 were chosen based on the existence of an
effective weather based agro-advisory service of NCMRWF at the unit for
quite some time.
From each unit, a representative district where AAS Unit was operating was
selected for conducting the farm survey. The selection of the district was
based on its similarity with the agro climatic zone in terms of cropping pattern,
irrigated area, rainfall and soil type.
20
A list of villages, from the selected district, having AAS contact farmers was
prepared and two villages were chosen randomly from among these.
In each selected villages, a list of all the AAS contact farmers was prepared by
category of their size of holding (small, medium, large), educational
background, family size, type of crops grown etc. A total of 20 farmers were
then selected using random sampling technique.
Thus a sample size of 40 AAS contact farmers was selected from the 2
villages.
Similarly, a list of villages having no AAS contact farmer from the same district were
prepared and two villages were chosen. From the two selected villages, a list of all the
farmers (non- AAS contact farmers) was prepared based on the criteria described
above. 20 farmers were then selected by random sampling from each village. Thus in
summary. four villages comprising of 2 villages of AAS contact farmers and 2
villages of non-AAS contact farmers were selected at each of the 15 units chosen for
the study. 20 AAS and 20 non-AAS contact farmers were selected from each village,
thus making a sample of 80 farmers (40 AAS and 40 non-AAS).
In order to keep the data of manageable size, information on important crops (at
least one each for Kharif and Rabi, but not more than four crops was selected for
taking detailed information on use and impact of weather forecasts. To ensure
reliability of the results, data has been collected for 3 Rabi and 3 Kharif seasons viz.,
Kharif 2004, 2005 and 2006 and for Rabi 2003-04, Rabi 2004-05 and Rabi 2005-06.
As most of the units could not collect the data for Rabi 2003-04, hence the project
was extended by 6 months to accommodate the Rabi season of 2006-07.
(i) Survey & the questionnaire
The sampling method was designed to work directly with the users of forecast
and advisory information, to be able to more meaningfully assess credible cost/loss
estimates. The important issue was to develop effective and meaningful base for
assessing impacts of cost-cutting yield and enhancing decisions. Cost-cutting
measures can take a variety of forms, some of which include saving in irrigation,
reducing the loss of fertilizer, reducing the pesticide applications. To obtain
quantitative information, working relationships between AMFUs and user farmers
were set up through periodic visits. Through such visits input from the farmers were
obtained about use and application of the advisory bulletins through pre-devised
questionnaire. Thus the sample survey is not independently conducted by the agency
which provided the questionnaire and therefore a certain amount of bias in inevitable.
This has been highlighted in Section 9 as one of the limitations that has been
encountered during the study.
The AAS units gave special attention to date of sowing, planting, harvesting,
spraying, irrigation and tillage operation. Due attention was paid to collecting
information on the adoption of advisory by the farmers during such operations and the
benefit/loss accrued by the farmers by following/not-following advisories related to
such crucial operations.
Based on the above methodology and impact assessment framework, the survey
is done using three aspects
Socio- Economic Status: The socio -economic status of the farmers is
surveyed using the queries related to the following in the questionnaire
o Family structure
o Literacy among farmers
21
o Size of land holding
o Cropping pattern
o Traditional Methods used
o Mode of irrigation
o Awareness of AAS
o Mode of receipt of AAS
o Weather parameters required
o Satisfaction from service (reliability, timely availability, expected
benefits, frequency)
o Willingness to pay
Quantity analysis of inputs used
o Quantity of Seed, Fertilizer, Pesticide
o No: of Labour (Human, machine)
o No: of Irrigations
Price analysis of inputs used
o Price of Seed, Fertilizer, Pesticide
o Cost of labour (Human, machine)
o Cost of Irrigation
o Cost of product/byproduct
o Any other associated cost

(j) Crops selected by the units

The major crops chosen for the study are as under
o Food grains: Wheat, Rice, Millets, Maize, Red Gram and Chickpea
o Oilseeds: Mustard;
o Cash crops: Cumin, Jute, Cotton and Tobacco
o Fruit crops: Apricot, Peach and Banana
o Vegetables: Tomato and Spinach.


(k) Format of the questionnaire / Farm Survey schedule


Date of interview (dd/mm/yyyy): Schedule Number:

Part I. General Information

1. Name of the AAS unit: (V1)

2. Name of agro-climatic zone: ____________________ (V2)

3. Name of district: _____________________ (V3)

4. Name of sample village: _____________________ (V4)

5. Name of farmer (Decision-maker): _____________________ (V5)

22

6. Farmers age (years): ________________ (V6)

7. Sex: Male (1)/ Female (2): ________________ (V7)

8. Years of schooling: _________________ (V8)

9. Persons (adults) dependant on agriculture: _________________ (V9)

10. Distance of the village from AAS unit (km.): ________________(V10)

11. Size of operational holding (acres): ______________________(V11)

12. Leased-in land (acres): ______________________(V12)

13. Leased-out land (acres): ______________________(V13)

14. AAS contact farmer Yes (1)/ No (2): ______________________(V14)

Part II. Farmers assessment of weather forecasts (reliability and use)

1.What are the weather-related events affecting crops adversely during the last 10 years?
Crop Most affected stage Second most affected stage
Stage* Weather
parameter**
Stage*


Weather
parameter**
1 V15 V16 V17 V18 V19
2. V20 V21 V22 V23 V24
3. V25 V26 V27 V28 V29
4. V30 V31 V32 V33 V34
5. V35 V36 V37 V38 V39

*1-Sowing; 2-Vegetative growth; 3-Flowering; 4- Maturity; 5-Harvesting
** 1-Rainfall; 2- Temperature; 3- Wind speed; 4- Wind direction; 5- Cloud cover;
6- Any other

2. What are your sources (three most important) of weather forecasts? Please tick
that is relevant.
a. Radio V40
b. Television V41
c. Newspaper V42
d. AAS Bulletin in printed form/ Public notice V43
e. Telephone/ Fax / Personal contact with AAS V44
23
f. Any other, please specify V45

3. What is the frequency of forecasts you use?
a. Daily V46
b. Bi-weekly V47
c. Weekly V48
d. Fortnightly V49
e. Monthly V50
f. Seasonally V51
4. What is the coverage of forecast used by you?
a. Rainfall V52
b. Temperature V53
c. Wind speed V54
d. Wind direction V55
e. Cloud cover V56
f. Any other V57

5. What are traditional weather forecast methods followed by you?
Parameters Method
#


Length of forecast
(daily/weekly/monthly/
seasonal/other)*
Chances of hit
forecast (%)

Rainfall V58 V59 V60
Temperature V61 V62 V63
Wind speed V64 V65 V66
Wind direction V67 V68 V69
Cloud cover V70 V71 V72
# 1- Observing star positions; 2- Consulting Panchang (Horoscope); 3- Folklore; 4-Any other
*1- Daily; 2- Weekly; 3- Monthly; 4- Seasonal; 5- Other (specify)

6. Are you aware about AAS Bulletins: Yes(1)/ No (2) V73
7. If yes, how did you come to know about the AAS bulletins? V74
a. Personal contact with officials (Scientist, AAS field staff, BDO) V75
b. Informed by fellow farmer or Panchayat head V76
c. Through electronic media: (Radio-1; TV 2) V77
d. Through mass media: (Newspaper): V78
e. Any other source? V79
f. How do you define it? V80

8. A. AAS Bulletin provides weather forecast for:
a. Rainfall V81
b. Temperature V82
c. Wind speed V83
24
d. Wind direction V84
e. Cloud cover V85
f. Multiple weather parameter V86
g. Farm management V87
h. Multiple weather parameter and farm management V88

B. Duration of forecast V89
a. Daily (1)
b. Bi-weekly (2)
c. Weekly (3)
d. Monthly (4)
e. Seasonal (5)
9. Since when you are receiving the AAS Bulletins (month / year): V90
10. To what extent the message of AAS bulletin is clear and adequate? V91
a. Coverage is adequate (Yes -1/ No -2) V92
b. Message is clear (Yes-1/ No -2) V93
c. Is additional information on crop management useful? (Yes-1/ No-2) V94
d. Is frequency of dissemination all right? (Yes- 1/ No -2) V95

11. What are the factors having bearing on the importance of AAS Bulletin V96
a. Timely availability: (Yes-1/ No-2) V97
b. Forecast reliability: (Yes-1/ No-2) V98
c. Expected benefits: (Yes-1/ No-2) V99
d. Overall usefulness (most useful-1, somewhat useful- 2, useless- 3): V100
12. If you are satisfied with AAS bulletin, are you willing to pay for it? V101
Yes-1/ No- 2/ Cant say 3
13. If Yes, what maximum price can you pay for the AAS bulletin for one crop
season (indicate in terms of kilogram of crop produce)? V102





Provide information for the two most important crops.
14. Suggestions for improvement in AAS:
a. Coverage should V105
i. Increase (specify in days):
ii. Decrease (in days specify):
iii. Not change
b. Frequency should V106
i. Increase (in days specify):
ii. Decrease (in days specify):
iii. Remain unchanged
Sl.No. Crop Kilogram of crop produce
1 V103
2 V104
25
c. Lead time (time available between availability of forecast & taking
action) should: V107
i. Increase (specify in days):
ii. Decrease (in days specify):
iii. Remain unchanged
d. Length of forecast should V108
i. Increase (specify in days):
ii. Decrease (in days specify):
iii. Remain unchanged
e. Agro advice should have more focus on V109
i. Latest technological know-how (variety, breed, etc)
ii. Input use
iii. Plant protection
iv. Market-related information
v. Any other
f. Rank the following based on their effectiveness in information dissemination: V110
i. Electronic media (TV, Radio, etc) V111
ii. Print media (Newspapers, Magazines, etc.) V112
iii. Any other method (please specify) V113
g. Any other information V114


Part III.

15. Cropping pattern and area under important crops: (for total operational holding)






















*1-canal; 2-tubewell; 3-wells; 4-others; ** HYV= High Yielding Varieties (of crops)
Crop Area irrigated
(acre)

Source of
irrigation
(canal/tube well/
well/other)*
Un-irrigated
area (acre)

Area
under
HYV**
crops
(acre)

Kharif
1 V115 V116 V117 V118 V119
2 V120 V121 V122 V123 V124
3 V125 V126 V127 V128 V129
4 V130 V131 V132 V133 V134
5 V135 V136 V137 V138 V139
Rabi
1 V140 V141 V142 V143 V144
2 V145 V146 V147 V148 V149
3 V150 V151 V152 V153 V154
4 V155 V156 V157 V158 V159
5 V160 V161 V162 V163 V164
26
Use of weather forecast, Input use pattern and crop yield:
Farmers name:V5 Village: V4 District:V3 Date of Interview: V165
Plot No. V166__________Area (acre) V167 _________ Own/ Lease
1
V168 ____ If irrigated, source of irrigation
2
: V169 Unirrigated/Rainfed V170 .
Crop V171 _________Variety V172 ___________ Previous crop grown V173 _________

Irrigation/Drainage Operations Land
preparation


V174
Seed
treatment


V194
Sowing



V214
1
V234
2
V254
3
V274
4
V294
5
V314
Fertilizer/
FYM
application

V334
Plant
protection


V354
Interculture



V374
Harvesting



V394
Threshing



V414
Post harvest
handling and
storage

V434
Crop growth stage V175 V195 V215 V235 V255 V275

V295

V315 V335 V355 V375 V395 V415 V435
Nature of weather risk V176 V196 V216 V236 V256 V276 V296 V316 V336 V356 V376 V396 V416 V436
Date of operation V177 V197 V217 V237 V257 V277 V297 V317 V337 V357 V377 V397 V417 V437
Method of operation, if applicable V178 V198 V218 V238 V258 V278 V298 V318 V338 V358 V378 V398 V418 V438
Use of AAS: (Yes 1; NO -2) V179 V199 V219 V239 V259 V279 V299 V319 V339 V359 V379 V399 V419 V439
AAS recommendation V180 V200 V220 V240 V260 V280 V300 V320 V340 V360 V380 V400 V420 V440
Action taken by you V181 V201 V221 V241 V261 V281 V301 V321 V341 V361 V381 V401 V421 V441
Reasons for deviation
3
V182 V202 V222 V242 V262 V282 V302 V322 V342 V362 V382 V402 V422 V442
Associated cost
4
(Unit) V183 V203 V223 V243 V263 V283 V303 V323 V343 V363 V383 V403 V423 V443
Input name V184 V204 V224 V244 V264 V284 V304 V324 V344 V364 V384 V404 V424 V444
Input quantity V185 V205 V225 V245 V265 V285 V305 V325 V345 V365 V385 V405 V425 V445
Male labour use (mandays)
5
V186 V206 V226 V246 V266 V286 V306 V326 V346 V366 V386 V406 V426 V446
Female labour use (mandays)
5
V187 V207 V227 V247 V267 V287 V307 V327 V347 V367 V387 V407 V427 V447
Machine use (Hrs.) V188 V208 V228 V248 V268 V288 V308 V328 V348 V368 V388 V408 V428 V448
Machine (Type) V189 V209 V229 V249 V269 V289 V309 V329 V349 V369 V389 V409 V429 V449
Bullock use (Pair Hrs.) V190 V210 V230 V250 V270 V290 V310 V330 V350 V370 V390 V410 V430 V450
Main Product (Qtls.)
V191 V211 V231 V251 V271 V291 V311 V331 V351 V371 V391 V411 V431 V451
By Product (Qtls.) V192 V212 V232 V252 V272 V292 V312 V332 V352 V372 V392 V412 V432 V452
Remarks (Any extreme event at
any stage; Other)
V193 V213 V233 V253 V273 V293 V313 V333 V353 V373 V393 V413 V433 V453
NB: Kindly see the Explanatory Note for filling up the numbered columns.

27


Use of weather forecast, Input use pattern and yield: (Fruits and Plantation Crops)
Farmers name:V5 Village:V4 District: V3 Date of Interview: V165 Plot No
V166___________Area (acre) V167 ________ Own/ Lease
1
V168 _____ If irrigated, source of irrigation
2
V169 .. Unirrigated/Rainfed V170 ..

Crop V171__________ Variety 172 ___________ Previous crop grown V173 _______ Age of plantation (Years) V454 ____________

Operations*
Irrigation
Operations
Interculture


V455
Pest
management

V474
1
V493
2
V512
3
V531
4
V550
5
V569
Fertilizer
application

V588
Harvesting


V607
Post-harvest
management

V626
Nature of weather risk V456 V475 V494 V513

V532

V551

V570

V589 V608 V627
Date of operation V457 V476 V495 V514 V533 V552 V571 V590 V609 V628
Method of operation V458 V477 V496 V515 V534 V553 V572 V591 V610 V629
Use of AAS: (Yes 1; NO -2) V459 V478 V497 V516 V535 V554 V573 V592 V611 V630
AAS recommendation V460 V479 V498 V517 V536 V555 V574 V593 V612 V631
Action taken by you V461 V480 V499 V518 V537 V556 V575 V594 V613 V632
Reasons for deviation
3
V462 V481 V500 V519 V538 V557 V576 V595 V614 V633
Associated cost
4
(Unit) V463 V482 V501 V520 V539 V558 V577 V596 V615 V634
Input name V464 V483 V502 V521 V540 V559 V578 V597 V616 V635
Input quantity V465 V484 V503 V522 V541 V560 V579 V598 V617 V636
Male labour use (mandays)
5
V466 V485 V504 V523 V542 V561 V580 V599 V618 V637
Female labour use (mandays)
5
V467 V486 V505 V524 V543 V562 V581 V600 V619 V638
Machine use (Hrs.) V468 V487 V506 V525 V544 V563 V582 V601 V620 V639
Machine (Type) V469 V488 V507 V526 V545 V564 V583 V602 V621 V640
Bullock use (Pair Hrs.) V470 V489 V508 V527 V546 V565 V584 V603 V622 V641
Main Product (Qtls.)
V471 V490 V509 V528 V547 V566 V585 V604 V623 V642
By Product (Qtls.) V472 V491 V510 V529 V548 V567 V586 V605 V624 V643
Remarks (Any extreme
event at any stage; Others)
V473 V492 V511 V530 V549 V568 V587 V606 V625 V644

NB: Kindly see the Explanatory Note for filling up the numbered columns.
Operations*: Interculture, post-harvest management, irrigation, fertilizer application, harvesting, post-harvest management etc.
Please note that all farm applications may not be relevant during a visit.
28

Explanatory Notes:

1. Owned land/ Leased in land
2. 1-.Canal, 2- Tubewell, 3- well 4-Others
3. 1-Unreliable forecast; 2- Inadequate time; 3- Inadequate resources; 4- Uncertainty of expected benefits; 5-
Recommendation not feasible; 6- Any other
4. Additional non-input cost (Rs)
5. One man equivalent day equals to 8 hours.
6. Since the field investigator is supposed to observe farmers responses to AAS Advisory on weekly basis, the farmers response would be captured
at different crop growth stages viz., Vegetative, Flowering, Fruiting, Ripening, Harvesting.
7. This information will be collected during several visits to farmers. Please use one sheet for a crop. If environments like irrigated and rainfed, then separate
sheets should be used. The data then will be transferred to a master sheet.


General information about prices

Sr. No. Items Price / Rate
(Rs./ Unit)
Remarks


1. Seed (Rs./kg) V645 V646
2. Fertilizer (1) (Rs./kg) V647 V648
(2) (Rs./kg) V649 V650
(3) (Rs./kg) V651 V652
3. Irrigation charges (Rs./acre) V653 V654
4. Labour (Rs./mandays) V655 V656
5. Machine Labour (1) (Rs./acre) V657 V658
(2) (Rs./acre) V659 V660
(3) (Rs./acre) V661 V662
6. Bullock Labour (Rs./acre) V663 V664
7. Plant Protection chemicals (1) (Rs./acre) V665 V666
(2) (Rs./acre) V667 V668
(3) (Rs./acre) V669 V670
Main product (Rs./qtl) V671 V672 8.

Product prices
By product (Rs./qtl) V673 V674
Note: This information will be compiled in first year for a farmer, and all analysis will be done at these (constant) prices.


29
4. Survey results of socio-economic features of farmers

For the purpose of comparison of the socio-economic features of household, India
was divided into 4 zones north (Ludhiana, Hisar, Pantnagar, Solan); West (Jaipur,
Jodhpur, Anand, Pune); East (Raipur, Nadia, Bhubaneshwar); and south (Bangalore,
Hyderabad, Coimbatore, Thrissur). The survey has been conducted based on the
questionnaire designed by NCAP.

(a) Age group of farmers
The pie graph shown in Figure 4.1 below depicts the age group of farmers in
different zones of India. It is seen that in the south more than 70% of the farmers are in
the age group of 35 or more (83%) followed by east where it is 61% and this is followed
by north where 57% of the farmers are in this age group. In the west consisting of station
like Jaipur, Jodhpur, Anand and Pune 47 % of the farmers are less than 35 years of age.
In general, it is seen that on an average over India most of the farmers belong to the
middle level age group. This implies that the younger generation may not be interested to
take up farming as a profession.








Fig 4.1 Pie Chart depicting the age group of farmers in different zones of the country
North( Ludhiana, Hisar, Pantnagar, Solan)
<35 years
43%
36-50 years
47%
>50 years
10%
West (Jaipur, Jodhpur, Anand, Pune)
<35 years
47%
36-50 years
40%
>50 years
13%
East (Raipur, Nadia, Bhubaneshwar)
<35 years
39%
36-50 years
53%
>50 years
8%
South (Bangalore, Hyderabad, Coimbatore,
Thrissur)
<35 years
17%
36-50 years
70%
>50 years
13%
30
(b) Educational level of farmers:
Figure 4.2 shows the education level of farmer in the four zones of the country.
The pie graph depicts that 52% of the farmers in North and west are at least matriculate
followed by east (48%) and south with 45%. Although the percentage of illiterate farmers
is very less about 0-8%, it is maximum in east and nil in the west. Interestingly about 6-
17% of the farmers are college pass with west leading in this category





























Fig 4.2 Pie Chart depicting the educational level of farmers in different zones of the country

(c) Size of holding
The pie graph in Figure 4.3 depicts the size of land holdings of the farmers in the
4 zones. It is seen that in general farmers in the west have large land holdings where 12%
of the farmers have land holdings greater than 25 acres followed by 40% in the 10-25
acres category. The west zone is followed by stations in the north where 23% farmers
have land holdings greater than 10 acres; 26% have land in the 5-10 acres and rest 51%
have holdings of less than 5 acres. In the east and southern zone the farmers generally
have small to medium land holdings ranging between 2.5-5 acres (east-65%; south-71%).
North( Ludhiana, Hisar, Pantnagar, Solan)
Illiterate
5%
Primary
23%
Matric
52%
0%
HSC
14%
College
6%
West (Jaipur, Jodhpur, anand, Pune)
Illiterate
0%
Primary
17%
Matric
52%
0%
HSC
14%
College
17%
East (Raipur, Nadia, Bhubaneshwar)
Illiterate
8%
Primary
24%
Matric
48%
0%
HSC
7%
College
13%
South (Bangalore, Hyderabad, Coimbatore,
Thrissur)
Illiterate
4%
Primary
13%
Matric
45%
0%
HSC
26%
College
12%
31
22% of the farmers in the east and 6% in the south have land holdings greater than 10
acres.
Fig 4.3 Pie Chart showing the land holdings owned by different farmers of the country
(d) Major crops grown by the selected farmers in the last 10 year
The following Table shows the major crops grown by the farmers in different regions
of the country during different seasons. The crops grown basically depend on the soil type,
cropping pattern, weather conditions and also whether the crops are irrigated or rain fed.

Table 4.1. Major crops gown in the 15 AAS units in Kharif and Rabi seasons
Station Major Crops grown Crops considered
under the project
Anand Paddy, Pearlmillet, Wheat, Gram, Mustard, Tobacco,
Brinjal, Tomato, Chilly, Banana, Potato
Potato, Tobacco
Bangalore Paddy, Maize, Sorghum, Ragi, Navane And Save;
Redgram Field Bean, Horse Gram, Cowpea, Black
Gram; Groundnut, Sunflower, Soyabean;
Vegetables: Tomato, Brinjal, Chilli, Cauliflower,
Cabbage, Cucumber, Potato, Onion, Grapes, Mango,
Banana, Sapota, Guava; Coconut, Cashew Nut
Ragi, Redgram
North( Ludhiana, Hisar, Pantnagar, Solan)
< 5.0 acres
51%
5.0-10 acres
26%
>10 acres
23%
West (Jaipur, Jodhpur, Anand, Pune)
< 5.0 acres
8%
5.0-10 acres
40%
>10 acres
40%
>25 acres
12%
East (Raipur, Nadia, Bhubaneshwar)
<2.5 acres
13%
2.5- 5.0 acres
52%
5.0-10 acres
13%
>10 acres
22%
South (Bangalore, Hyderabad, Coimbatore,
Thrissur)
<2.5
34%
2.5- 5.0 acres
37% 5.0-10 acres
23%
>10 acres
6%
32
Bhubaneshwar Rice, Greengram, Black gram, Groundnut, Coconut,
Cashewnut, Pointed Gourd, Tomato, Brinjal, Okra
Rice (direct sown &
transplanted),Tomato
Hisar Cotton, Bajra, Jowar, Guar, Moong, Cowpea, Moth,
Sugarcane, Mustard, Wheat, Barley, Gram Lentil,
Methi, Carrot ,Radish, Cauliflower
Cotton, Mustard
Hyderabad Rice, Jowar, Maize, Pigeonpea, Greengram, Chickpea,
Groundnut, Sunflower, Castor; Cotton, Tomato,
Brinjal, Leafy Vegetables (Palak, Amaranthus, Etc.,)
Carrot, Beet Root, Beans, Bhendi, Mango, Sapota,
Citrus
Rice, Tomato, Palak,
Cotton
Jaipur Pearl Millet, Peanut, Cluster Bean, Green Gram, Moth
Bean, Cowpea; Pumpkin, Bitter Gourds, Tomato,
Brinjal, Okra, Chillies, Cluster Bean, Cucumber,
Onion, Ridge Gourd, Bottle Gourd; Pearl Millet
Fodder (In Irrigated Areas); Wheat, Chickpea (Gram),
Barley And Mustard; Pea, Tomato, Brinjal,
Cauliflower, Cabbage, Cucumber, Onion, Carrot,
Radish, Garlic; Coriander, Cumin, Fenugreek, And
Fennel, Ajwain; Lucerne; Ziad Green Gram
Muskmelon, Watermelon, Cucurbits, Chillies, And
Cluster Bean, Pearlmillet Fodder
Pearl Millet, Wheat,
Gram
Jodhpur Pearl Millet, Moong, Moth, Clusterbean, Sesame,
Sorghum, Clusterbean, Groundnut, Cotton, Tomato,
Chilly & Caster (Oil Seed), Mustard Wheat, Barely
Cumin, Carrot, Chilly And Vegetables Crops
Pearl Millet, Mustard,
Cumin
Kalyani
Rice, Wheat, Bengal Gram, Green Gram, Black Gram,
Lentil, Mustard, Sesame, Linseed, Groundnut,
Sunflower, Niger,Cabbage, Cauliflower, Bottle Gourd,
Bitter Gourd, Ridge Gourd, Pointed Gourd, Chilli,
Potato, French Bean, Brinjal, Cucumber, Radish,
Bhindi, Knolkhol, Broad Bean, Beet, Carrot, Spinach,
Amaranthus, Indian Spinach, Banana, Mango, Jack
Fruit, Guava, Litchi, Pomogranate, Coconut, Areca
Nut, Betel Vine, Ginger, Turmeric, Coriander, Onion,
Fennel, Garlic, Jute, Sunflower, Rose,
Chrysanthemum, Marigold, Jasmine
Rice (Boro & Aman),
Jute, Mustard
Ludhiana Rice, Wheat Rice, Wheat
Pantnagar Rice,Sugarcane, Maize, Soybean, Moong, Urd, Arhar,
Groundnut, Seasonal Vegetable Crops,Wheat, Lentil,
Gram, Pea, Rapeseed, Mustard,Potato, Seasonal
Vegetable Crops Are Grown During Rabi Season. Urd,
Moong And Sunflower Are Also Grown During
Summer Season As Zaid Crops. Mango, Guava, Lemon
And Leechi Are Main Fruit Crops
Rice, Wheat
33
Pune Bajra, Sorghum And Wheat; Green Gram, Black
Gram; Groundnut, Soybean, Sugarcane ,Onion,
Cauliflower, Cabbage, Brinjal,Tomato, Okra, Potato,
Leafy Vegetables, Guava, Kagdi Lime, Coconut
Wheat, Pearl millet,
Onion
Raipur Rice, Wheat, Maize, Jowar, Gram, Lathyrus, Lentil,
Pigeon Pea, Green Gram, Black Gram, Soybean,
Castor, Groundnut, Mustard, Sesame, Linseed,
Cauliflower, Ivy Gourd, Ridge Gourd, Tomato, Chilli,
Potato, Sem, Cowpea, Cucumber, Papaya, Banana,
Mango, Guava, Custard Apple, Ginger, Coriander
Rice, Wheat, Gram
Solan Tomato, Capsicum, French-Beans, Maize, Bitter
Gourd, Seet Gourd, Pumpkin; Peach, Plum, Apricot,
Pomegranate, Pear, Strawberry. Pea, Cabbage Family,
Cauliflower, Garlic, Turmeric, Ginger, Leafy
Vegetables (Methi, Palak, Dhania, Sarson, Salad,
Lettuce, Wheat, Pulses , Oil Seed Crops, Maize Etc
Tomato, Capsicum,
Peach, Apricot
Thrissur
Coconut, Arecanut, Banana, Black Pepper, Vanilla, Paddy,
Vegetables, Nutmeg, Cashew, Rubber, Tapioca, Ginger
Coconut, Banana , Rice
(irrigated & rainfed)

5. Survey results of economic impact of AAS (Quantity and Price)

The Project Scientists visited the selected farmers of both AAS and non-AAS
categories on specified time schedules. These visits were planned in such a way so as to
coincide with the dates of different operations like land preparation, sowing, planting,
irrigation scheduling, fertilizer applications, harvesting and post-harvesting operations.
The Nodal Officers carried out the survey based on the queries in the questionnaire
designed by NCAP. This questionnaire includes the dates of all the operations, the action
taken by the farmer in view of the impending weather/advisory, cost of seed, labour
applied in terms of both machine and human, number of irrigations undertaken, fertilizers
applied, harvest technology adopted and various other issues. Based on the data collected,
the assessment of the impact of AAS in economic terms was carried out by the nodal
officers with the help of NCMRWF
The economic impact assessment is crop specific, region specific and season
specific. Case studies of specific operations have also been cited with the gain/loss in
economic terms. Given below are the detailed analysis of each crop undertaken by the 15
units. The results are based on the following aspects
Impact of AAS on cost of cultivation
Impact of AAS on net returns
Impact of AAS on yield
Therefore the information given below for each crop broadly covers the following.
o AAS units undertaking study on specified crop
o General Information of the crop
o Weather Sensitive farm operations
o Weather sensitive crop growth stages
o Measuring the Impact of AAS
o Case Studies
34
o Overall analysis of the results obtained in terms of use of weather based AAS.
Most of the information is put in the form of Tables. These Tables are self-
explanatory and do not need further elaboration.

(a)Cereals : Rice and wheat

Rice
o AAS units undertaking study on rice
Hyderabad Season: Kharif & Rabi
Raipur Season: Kharif
Thrissur Season: Kharif & Rabi
Kalyani Season: Kharif & Rabi
Bhubaneshwar Season: Kharif & Rabi
Ludhiana Season: Kharif
Pantnagar Season: Kharif

o General Information of the crop
Rice is grown under widely varying conditions of altitude and climate. Rice is
considered to be warmth and humid loving crop. It requires prolonged sunshine and
assured water supply. Rice accommodates itself under an annual rainfall ranging from
1000 mm to 1500 mm or even more. The atmospheric temperature has considerable
effect on growth and development of rice plants. Rice needs relatively high temperature
ranging between 25 to 35
0
C for optimum growth and development of plants. However,
high temperature, especially during nights, leads to greater respiration losses of the
accumulated food materials. Therefore, for higher grain yield a day temperature of 25 to
33
0
C and night temperature of 15 to 20
0
C are preferable. A higher mean temperature
ranging between 25 to 32
0
C per day would reduce the growth duration and accelerate
flowering. Whereas a mean temperature of less than 15
0
C would cause a dormant stage or
a slow vegetative growth but plants fail to flower. Rice crop prefer to have bright
sunshine for an enhanced photosynthetic activity and higher yields. Bright days
associated with gentle winds are the best condition because CO
2
supply and utilization
are regulated to the maximum. Heavy wind causes severe lodging or shattering
depending upon the crop growth stage. Rice is essentially a short day plant. A
combination of temperatures, photo-period and light intensity, however, determines the
growth period, growth rate, crop performance and productivity.
Rice is grown in both Rabi and Kharif season in Hyderabad. Yields in Rabi are
higher than Kharif due to higher nitrogen use efficiency in view of abundant availability
of solar radiation. In Thrissur also it is grown both in Rabi and Kharif season with Kharif
paddy being rainfed. In Bhubaneshwar paddy is grown under both direct sown and
transplanted condition. In Raipur, Ludhiana, Pantnagar it is taken up during Kharif
season. In Kalyani in West Bengal, two varieties of paddy are grown namely Boro in
Kharif and Aman in Rabi season.

o Weather Sensitive farm operations
All farm operations are sensitive to paddy growth. They are: Sowing; Raising of
seedlings ; Transplanting, Irrigation, Fertilizer application, Plant protection; Harvesting
35
o Weather sensitive crop growth stages

Crop Crop growth
stage
Std Met.
Week
*

Important weather parameter related to
respective crop growth
Effect of weather parameter

Time of
transplanting
26-31 Rainfall Timely transplanting
Tillering 30-34
Cloud cover, rainfall and temperature Incidence of diseases and pests
Panicle
initiation
35-38
Cloud cover, rainfall and minimum
temperature
Incidence of
diseases and pests
Flowering 36-39
Cloud cover, rainfall and minimum
temperature
Incidence of diseases and pests
Grain filling 37-40
Cloud cover, rainfall and minimum
temperature
Incidence of diseases and pests
Paddy
(Long
duration)
Hyderabad
Harvesting 40-45 Rainfall Damage to grain
Emergence phase 25 Rainfall Deficit or excess rainfall effect the
emergence
Seedling phase 26-28 Rainfall & Sunshine Deficit rainfall increase the weed growth
Transplanting
phase
29 Rainfall Deficit rainfall hampers the transplanting
Tillering phase 30-33 Rainfall Excess rainfall decreases the tiller
production
Vegetative lag
phase
34-35 Cloudiness Reduced biomass and photosynthesis
Reproductive
phase
36-38 Rainfall Reduced pollination
Paddy Raipur
Grain ripening
phase
39-42 Sunshine Increases fertile spikelets
36
Sowing




19 21
st

week
(May 7-27)

Lack of pre-monsoon showers or heavy
rainfall after sowing


Lack of pre-monsoon showers affect the
sowing process and further it will affect the
timely sowing of second season crop.
Heavy pre-monsoon rainfall after sowing /
transplanting causes washing away of
seedlings.
Flowering 28-31
st

week
(July 9-
August 5)
Rainfall Wet spell during flowering period in kharif
are detrimental. 20 per cent loss is expected
due to grain chaffing.
Thrissur
Kharif
Harvesting


35-37
th

week
(August
27-
September
16)
Rainfall


Rainfall during harvest stage will affect the
harvesting operation and cause yield loss,
grain quality
Sowing /
transplanting


38 - 41
st

week
(17
th

September
14
th

October)
Rainfall




Heavy rainfall during this period will cause
delay in sowing/transplanting which in
turn affect the crop yield by exposure of
crop during dry spell period.
Paddy
Rabi
Reproductive
stage
45-46
th

week(5
th

November
18
th

November
Early cessation of northeast monsoon
rainfall
Dry spell during this period will affect the
production
Seedling

3-4 Met wk Severe cold ,rain

Yellowing of leaves Paddy




Kalyani
Boro
Tillering to
flowering
6-10 Met.
Week
Rain and cloudiness Sheath blight, Brown spot
37

Bhubaneshwar
Timely sown
(transplanted)









Vegetative


Flowering


Maturity stage


Harvesting

6-8
th
week
(5
th
25
th

Feb)
12
th
-13
th

week (19
th

Mar-1
st
pr)

16-29
th

April

Low temperature

Wind speed


Cloud cover



Cloud cover

Retarded
vegetative growth

Imperious effect on pollination

Set back in grain filling (owing to less
energy out put)
Difficulty in sun drying

Late sown
(transplanted
- 30
th
April-
6
th
May
- -
Seedling 22 Rainfall Seedling mortality & less growth at lesser
rainfall
Transplanting 26 High temperature High temperature is harmful
Tillering stage 28 Temperature Increased temperature less tillering, effected
by low night temperature
Panicle initiation
stage
31 High wind speed High wind speed desiccate panicles
Booting stage 35 High temperature and High humidity High temperature less elongation,
susceptible to rainfall
Heading stage 36 High temperature Very sensitive to high temperature
Flowering stage 38 High temperature and strong winds High temp. causes anthesis sterility, strong
winds shreds flowers
Milky stage 39 Temperature Low night temperature
Dough stage 40
Paddy Ludhiana
Maturation stages 42 Rainfall and strong winds Causes Lodging
38
Transplanting 24 to 29 Rainfall More area is covered for transplanting if
sufficient rainfall
Tillering 26 to 31 Rainfall & Temperature More tillers
Grain filling 40 to 41 Temperature Less grain if temp. is low
Paddy Pantnagar
Harvesting 42 to 43 Rainfall & Wind Harvesting & Threshing Delayed
* For Standard Meteorological Week see Annexure-II

o Measuring the Impact of AAS

Station Crop Impact of AAS on cost
of cultivation (Rs/acre)
Impact of AAS on gross
returns (Rs/acre)
Impact of AAS on
net returns
(Rs/acre)
Impact of AAS on
yield
(Q/acre)
Raipur Paddy Decrease by 12.3% Increase by 12.0% Increase by 55.8% Increase by 10.3%
Thrissur Paddy-
Kharif
Decrease by 5.6% Increase by 7.5% Increase by 11.5% Increase by 7.6%
Thrissur Paddy- Rabi Decrease by 5.6% Increase by 12.1% Increase by 19.2% Increase by 12.4%
Kalyani Boro Rice Decrease by 13.4% Increase by 8.3% Increase by 24.7% Increase by 18.1%
Kalyani Aman Rice Decrease by 11.2% Increase by 23% Increase by 21% Increase by 14.2%
Bhubaneshwar Transplanted
Rice
Increase by 8.5% Increase by 11.3% Increase by 16.1% Increase by 12.0%
Ludhiana Rice Decrease by 7.7% Increase by 8.6% Increase by 21.2% Increase by 8.8%
Hyderabad Paddy Decrease by 13.24% Increase by 8.1% Increase by 27 % Increase by 0.4%
Pantnagar Paddy Decrease by 5% Increase by 8.1% Increase by 19.1% Increase by 21.3%


39
o Case Studies
What is the loss/gain
achieved due to the
recommendation
(AAS vs non AAS)
Station Season


Crop Operation Weather
parameter
crucial to the
crop
Date of AAS recommendation in
light of the prevailing weather for
that operation (write the
recommendation also)
Whether AAS
Recommenda
tion followed
In Total cost
of cultivation
(Rs/ac)
In Net
returns
(Rs/ac)
Kharif 04 Paddy Beushening Rainfall July 16, 2004
Bueshning operation can
immediately be done
Followed
Kharif 04 Paddy Tillering Rainfall August 24, 04
Spraying of fungicide is
recommended
Followed
Paddy Biasi Rainfall July 26, 05
Moderate rain expected. Farmers
can go for Biasi operation
Followed
Raipur
Kharif 05 Paddy Interculture
and Plant
protection
Rainfall August 30, 05
Clear weather, farmers can go for
plant protection and interculture
operation
Followed
The AAS farmers benefited
over the non-AAS farmers
by following the
recommendations.
Rabi 03-
04
Paddy Spraying High relative
humidity and low
temperature
October 14, 2003
Recommendation:
Infestation of leaf folder is seen in
paddy, use a thorny stick and open
the folded leaves, spray
Monocrotophos/
Quinalphos/carbaryl in the infested
zone of the field.
All the
farmers
followed
Marginal
insignificant
increase only
(19/-)
1173







Thrissur
Kharif 06 Paddy Spraying Cloudy weather,
high relative
humidity and low
temperature
June 13 & 27 and July 4, 2006
Recommendation:
Infestation of leaf folder is seen in
paddy, use a thorny stick and open
the folded leaves, spray
Monocrotophos/Quinalphos/carbary
43 per cent of
farmers
followed
367 850
40
Rabi 06-
07
Paddy Spraying Daily average
temperature of 27
- 28C and high
relative humidity
November 21 &28 and December
5&12, 2006
Recommendation:
Rice bug infestation is noticed in
paddy. Dust Metacid or spray
Carbaryl, Malathion or Metacid
27 per cent of
farmers
followed
631 1345
Bhubaneshwar Kharif 04 Rice
(Transpla
nted )
Fertilizer and
pesticide
application
Rainfall and
temperature

August 2004 Followed 1455 2320
Rice
(Direct
seeded)
Herbicide
application
Rainfall September 2004 Followed 188 less 1452
Kharif 06 Rice
(Transpla
nted )
Fertilizer and
pesticide
application In
Nursery and
main field
Rainfall and
temperature

August 2006 Followed 1376 1968
Rice
(Direct
seeded)
Herbicide and
pesticide
application
Rainfall Followed 786 1204
Hyderabad Kharif -
04
Paddy Pesticides
application
Cloud cover,
Rainfall
Dt. October 5 2004 (Tricyclazole)
Yes Rs. 553
(7.4 %)
Rs. 771
(12.55%)
Kharif 05 Paddy Pesticides
spraying
Cloud cover,
Night Temp
Dt. October 25 2005, (Edifenphos) Yes Rs. 1239
(17%)
Rs. 1340
(19%)
Kharif -
06
Paddy Pesticides
spraying
Temperatures Dt. October 17 2006 (Acephate) Yes Rs. 1022
(15.43%)
Rs. 1764
(23.74%)
Ludhiana Kharif
2004
Paddy Transplanting 10-06.2004
Dry weather
Start transplanting of rice, apply
recommended dose of fertilizers and
for weed control use butachlor or
Anilophos in the standing water
within 2-3 days after transplanting
Followed Saved the crop from weed
Kharif
2005
Paddy Irrigation 05.07.2005
Mainly cloudy
weather with
moderate to heavy
rainfall
As rainfall is expected in coming
days. The farmers advised to save
irrigation water by not applying
irrigation.
Followed Rs 200 per acre
41
Kharif
2006
Paddy
Irrigation

01.08.2006
Generally cloudy
weather is
expected
Irrigation to rice crop may be
applied two days after the ponded
water has infiltrated into the soil but
rice fields should not be allowed to
develop cracks. Last dose of
nitrogen through 35 Kg urea may be
applied, if already not given.
Followed
Kharif
2006
Paddy
Plant
Protection
11.08.2006
Partly cloudy
weather expected
For the control of Plant hopper,
Leaf folder and stem borer, spray
the crop with recommended
pesticides on clear days
Followed Rs 250 per acre

o Overall analysis of the results obtained in terms of use of weather based AAS.

Station: Bhubaneshwar

Input Amount of Input used in
(Rs/acre)
Difference in yield due to the input
(Rs/Acre)
Difference in the cost of cultivation(Rs./acre)
Transplanted Rice AAS Non-AAS AAS Non-AAS Difference AAS Non-AAS Difference
Seed
180 218
Fertilizer
857 658
FYM
804 573
Irrigation
318 88
Herbicide
73 20
Pesticide
619 409
Human labour 2882 2652
Bullock labour 168 314
Machine labour 1133 1099
Assoc. cost 246 379
11770 10505 1265 7280 6410 870

42
Station : Raipur

Station : Thrissur
Amount of Input used Difference in yield due to the input
(Q/acre)
Difference in the cost of cultivation
(Rs/acre)
Input (per acre)
AAS Non-AAS AAS Non-AAS Difference AAS Non-AAS Difference
Seed (kg/acre)
21 24
Fertilizer (kg/acre)
162 171
Pesticide(kg/acre) 0 0
Pesticide(l/acre) 0 0
Human labour (Mandays/acre) 31 35
Machine labour (Total hours/acre) 5 5
Irrigation (no.) (per farmer) 1 2



23.6



21.4



2.2


7197



8210



-1013
Input Amount of Input
used (kg/ha)
Difference in yield due to the input (Q/ha) Difference in the cost of Cultivation (Rs/acre)
AAS Non-AAS AAS Non- AAS Difference AAS Non- AAS Difference
Kharif season
Seed 126 135
Fertilizer 360 374
FYM 927 911
Irrigation N/A N/A
Plant protection chemical
Herbicide - -
Pesticide 0.23 0.20



27.5



25.5



2.0



6976



7379



-403
Rabi season
Seed 120 134
Fertilizer 578 465
FYM 1060 921
Irrigation - -
Plant protection chemical
Herbicide - -
Pesticide 0.5 0.4



32.8



28.7



4.1



7748



8210



-462
43
Station: Kalyani
Input Amount of Input used Difference in yield due to the input Difference in the cost of cultivation(Rs/acre)
Boro Rice AAS Non-AAS AAS
(Q/acre)
Non-AAS(Q/Acre) Difference
(Q/acre)
AAS Non-AAS Difference
Seed (Kg/acre) 31.4 32.0
Fertilizer (Kg/acre) 87 101
FYM 0 0
Irrigation (no./acre) 5 5
Plant protection
chemical
0 0
Herbicide 0 0
Pesticide (lts./acre) 0.03 0.31
Etc.. ..(land prep..)
49.3 41.7 7.6 7614 8795 -1181
Aman Rice
Seed (Kg/acre) 27 29
Fertilizer (Kg/acre) 73 92
FYM 0 0
Irrigation (no./acre) 1 1
Plant protection
chemical
0 0
Herbicide 0 0
Pesticide (lts./acre) 0.1 0.2
43.8 38.3 5.4 6266 7059 -793

Station: Ludhiana
Input Amount of Input used
In (kg/acre)
Difference in yield due to the input
(Q/acre)
Difference in the cost of cultivation
In (Rs/acre)
AAS Non-AAS AAS Non-AAS Difference AAS Non-AAS Difference
Seed (kg per acre) 8 8
Fertilizer(kg/acre 143 152
Herbicide (kg/acre) 1 1
Pesticide(kg/acre) 1 0
Human labour Mandays/acre) 17 21
Machine labour
(Total hours/acre) 62 75
Irrigation (no.) (per farmer) 16 19
27.3 25.1 2.2 6186 6705 -519
44
Station: Pantnagar

Station: Hyderabad
Amount of input used Difference in yield due to input
(Q/acre)
Difference in cost of cultivation (Rs/acre) Input
AAS Non AAS AAS Non AAS Diff AAS Non AAS Diff
Seed (kg/acre) 61 68
Fertilizer kg/acre) 246 313
Pesticide kg/acre) 2 7
Human labour (mandays/acre) 30 39
Machine labour (hrs/acre) 4 5
Irrigation (no/acre) 5 4
142 141
1.0
18447 21262 -2815
Amount of input used Difference in yield due to
input (Q/acre)
Difference in cost of
cultivation (Rs/acre)
Input
AAS Non AAS AAS Non AAS Diff AAS Non AAS Diff
Seed (kg/acre) 14 15
Fertilizer kg/acre) 129 124
Herbicide (kg/acre) 1 1
Pesticide kg/acre) 6 7
Human labour (mandays/acre) 26 18
Machine labour (hrs/acre) 9 7
Irrigation (no/acre) 6 7
23.3 19.2 4.1
5087 5356 -269
45
Wheat

o AAS units undertaking study on wheat
Raipur Season: Rabi
Ludhiana Season: Rabi
Pantnagar Season: Rabi
Jaipur Season: Rabi
Pune Season: Rabi

o General Information of the crop
The ideal weather condition for wheat cultivation is cool, moist weather during
the major portion of the growing period followed by dry warm weather to enable the
grain to ripen properly. Warm temperature at this stage is unfavourable to tillering and
also promotes several diseases. Too much of rain during the season results in heavy
incidence of rusts. For vegetative growth crop requires 15 to 20C. High temperature
during the rapid growth results in poor tillering, low number of effective tillers, poor
growth rate, low LAI, short ears with lower number of spikelets, lower grain weight and
lower quality. It is highly sensitive to moisture stress during the period from shooting to
advance heading stage. Optimum rainfall requirement is 50-87.5 cm during the growing
season and the water requirement is 35-55 cm for different varieties and seasonal
condition.

o Weather sensitive farm operation:

Sowing, Irrigation, Plant protection (wed control), Harvesting & Threshing, and post
harvest are some of the main weather farm operations. The other specific stage wise
weather farm operations are Crown root initiation stage (21 days from sowing);Tillering
stage (42 days from sowing); Flowering stage (63 days from sowing); Milk stage( 84
days from sowing); Dough stage (105 days from sowing)

o Measuring the Impact of AAS

Station Crop Impact of AAS on cost
of cultivation (Rs/acre)
Impact of AAS on
gross returns
(Rs/acre)
Impact of AAS on
net returns
(Rs/acre)
Impact of AAS
on yield
(Q/acre)
Raipur Wheat Increase by 3.1% Increase by 10.0% Increase by 13.1% Increase by 7.5%
Ludhiana Wheat Increase by 2.6% Increase by 12.9% Increase by 19.3% Increase by
9.6%
Jaipur Wheat Decrease by 0.70 % Increase by 8.84 % Increase by 14.36 % Increase by 5.71
%
Pune Wheat Increase by 4.0% Increase by 13.3% Increase by 28.5% Increase by
32.5%
Pantnagar Wheat Decrease by 8.1% Increase by 7.5% Increase by 12.3% Increase by
17.9%


46
o Weather sensitive crop growth stages

Crop Crop growth
stage
Standard
Met.
Week *
Important weather
parameter related to
respective crop growth
Effect of weather parameter

Rainfall Pollination affected Anthesis 4 8
High temperature Sterility and stunted growth
Harvesting 12 15 Rainfall Lodging
Rainfall Pollination affected Anthesis 4 8
High temperature Sterility and stunted growth
Wheat Raipur
(Timely
Sown






Late
Sown

Harvesting 12 15 Rainfall and wind speed Lodging
Crown root
initiation stage
48 Rainfall Rainfall is beneficial for crop growth
Jointing 50 High temperature High temperature is harmful
Flowering 3 Rainfall Rainfall is beneficial for crop growth
Milking 11 High wind speed High wind speed is harmful for the crop
Grain
Development
13 High temperature and High
humidity
High temperature and high humidity are harmful to
the crop and reduces the yield of crop
Wheat Ludhiana
Maturity 14 High wind speed High wind speed is harmful for crop yield
Early sown 45-46 Rainfall & Temp.. Germination & tillering
Med. Sown 47-51 Rainfall & Temp. Germination, tillering & flowering
Late sown 52-02 Rainfall, Temp. & Wind Germination, tillering, flowering & Yield
CRI 49 - 04 Rainfall Highly critical and sensitive to water
Tillering 52-08 Minimum temp. More tiller under low temperature
Wheat Pantnagar

Ear head
emergence
09 to 12 Both Max & Mini. Temp. 7
Wind speed
Grain filling, lodging with irrigation /rainfall under
high winds
47
Sowing 46 Temperature Reduce germination
Crown root
initiation stage
49 Moisture Reduced yield by 15-20% if irrigation is not given
Tillering 52 Temperature High temperature reduce tillering
Early emergence 96 Cloudy weather Cause aphid attack & rust disease
Wheat Jaipur
Milk stage 9 Temperature High temperature cause shriveling of grains and
reduce grain weight.
CRI 43 Temperature maximum Effect & weather parameter

Tillering 46 Temperature minimum Warm temperature enhance germination

Flowering 50 Temperature minimum Cool temp. up to 10
0
C & humidity above 85%
increase tillering

Milk stage 1 Temperature minimum Cool temperature up to 8
0
C with less range of in
diurnal temperature
Pune
(early
sown)
Physiological
maturity
5 Temperature Cool temperature with less range of diurnal
temperature
CRI 45 Temperature maximum Warm temperature enhance germination
Tillering 48 Temperature minimum Cool temp. up to 10
0
C & humidity above 85%
increase tillering
Flowering 51 Temperature minimum Cool temperature up to 8
0
C with less range of in
diurnal temperature
Milk stage 3 Temperature minimum Cool temperature with less range of diurnal
temperature
Wheat
Timely
sown
Physiological
maturity
8 Temperature Cool temperature with less rang of diurnal
temperature.

* For Standard Meteorological Week see Annexure-II





48


o Case Studies
Season

Crop Operation Weather
parameter
crucial to the
crop
Date of AAS recommendation in light of
the prevailing weather for that operation
Whether AAS
recommendation
followed
Gain/loss due to the
recommendation
(AAS vs Non AAS)
Rabi04-05 Plant
protection
Temperature
minimum
Jan 25 2005, Feb 2 2005 The rust on wheat
should be controlled by spraying of Dithane
Z-78, 1250 g. in 500 liter water + 2% Urea
should be done per hectare. If there is attack
of insect pest mix 500 ml Monocrotophos in
above solution.
Recommendation
followed
Sowing Temperature
minimum
Oct 18 2005 Sowing of irrigated wheat
should be done during 15
th
October to 15
th

November Oct 25 2005 There is a prediction
of low minimum temperature, which is
favorable for sowing of wheat
Recommendation
followed Rabi-05-06



Irrigation Temperature
minimum
Jan 31 2006Wheat crop is in milking stage,
irrigate wheat in this stage. Irrigation should
be given according to the stage of wheat crop
Recommendation
followed
Rabi06-07
Wheat
Pune
Harvesting Temperature Feb 2 2007 Complete the harvesting paradise
at morning, which get the benefit of humid
climate resulting into reduce of loss due to
shedding of grain from ear head.
Recommendation
followed

By following the
recommendation, yield
loss due to
unfavourable weather
was kept in check. In all
the AAS farmers had a
12% increase in yield
over the non-AAS
farmers

Rabi 03-04 Sowing Dry weather Oct 30 2003: Optimum time for the sowing of
wheat and treat the seed with vitavax
Rabi 04-05 Irrigation Dry weather Jan 6 2005: Apply second irrigation to the
wheat crop and first irrigation to late sown
and remaining dose of nitrogen fertilizer to
normal as well as late sown wheat
Rabi 05-06
Wheat
Ludhiana
Harvesting Dry Weather Apr 18 2006. It is optimum time for the
harvesting of wheat crop
Followed

The yield of Wheat
crop increased by
Rabi 04-05 Milking stage Rainfall Feb. 01, 2005. Rainfall is useful for the wheat
crop, farmers were recommended for top
dressing.
Rabi 05-06 Harvesting Rainfall March 31, 2006 Clear weather farmers can go
for harvesting
Rabi06-07
Raipur

CRI
Branching
Temperature Jan 02, 2007 Irrigation was recommended for
both the crop
Followed

The yield of Wheat
crop increased by
49
o Overall analysis of the results obtained in terms of use of weather based AAS
Station: Raipur













Station: Ludhiana








Station: Jaipur







Amount of Input used
(Kg/acre)
Difference in yield due to the input
(Q/acre)
Difference in the cost of cultivation
(Rs/acre)
Input (per acre)
AAS Non-AAS AAS Non-AAS Difference AAS Non-
AAS
Difference
Seed (kg/acre) 37 38
Fertilizer(kg/acre 76 86
Herbicide (kg/acre) 0 0
Pesticide(kg/acre) 1 44
Human labour (Mandays/acre) 6 7
Machine labour (Total
hours/acre) 5 6
Irrigation (no.) (per farmer) 5 5



14.0



13.0



1.0



3812




3699




113
Input Amount of Input used
In (kg/acre)
Difference in yield due to the input
(Q/acre)
Difference in the cost of cultivation
(Rs/acre)
AAS Non-AAS AAS Non-AAS Difference AAS Non-AAS Difference
Seed (kg per acre) 40 40
Fertilizer(kg/acre 150 153
Herbicide (kg/acre) 147 131
Pesticide(kg/acre) 150 0
Human labour (Mandays/acre) 7 7
Machine labour (Total hours/acre) 14 15
Irrigation (no.) (per farmer) 0 0
35.5 32.4 3.1 5262 5130 132
Input Amount of Input used
In (kg/acre)
Difference in yield due to the input
(Q/acre)
Difference in the cost of cultivation
(Rs/acre)
AAS Non-AAS AAS Non-AAS Difference AAS Non-AAS Difference
Seed (kg per acre) 40 43
Fertilizer(kg/acre 114 101
Herbicide (kg/acre) 0 0
Pesticide(kg/acre) 26 15
Human labour (Mandays/acre) 29 35
Machine labour (Total hours/acre) 9 10
Irrigation (no.) (per farmer) 6 7
26.7 24.8 1.9
5207 5803 -596
50
Station: Pantnagar
Amount of input
used (kg/acre)
Difference in yield due to
input (Q/acre)
Difference in cost of
cultivation (Rs/acre)
Input
AAS Non AAS AAS Non AAS Diff AAS Non
AAS
Diff
Seed (kg/acre) 30.1 30.3
Fertilizer (kg/acre) 50 80
Pesticide (kg/acre) 0 1
Human labour (man
days/acre)
2 3
Machine labour
(hrs/acre) 5 4
Irrigation (no/acre) 2 3
63.7 54 9.7 3206 3488
-282


(b) Millets : Finger Millet & Pearl Millet

Finger Millet/Ragi

o AAS units undertaking study on Finger Millet/Ragi
Bangalore Season: Kharif
o General information of crop
Finger millet (Eleusine coracana L. Gaertn ) is cultivated mainly in Asia and
Africa. It is known by different names such as birds foot or coracana in English, Ragi or
Nangli. It is predominantly grown as a dry land crop in the peninsular Indian States of
Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.
Crop like finger millet is well to known to respond to change in the climatic
condition due to their adoptability, susceptibility to moisture stress, high relative
humidity and high rainfall, however, physiology of finger millet can not respond all time
change in the climatic condition. In India there are two main crop seasons of Ragi. The
higher rainfall zones allowing sowing with early varieties. It is known as gidda Ragi
sown during May in order to harvest the crop by September or October. Most areas are
sown to late varieties (Hain or Dodda Ragi) between July and August, in order to harvest
the crop by November or December or January. Irrigated Ragi is also sown in India. If
irrigated, it is primarily a dry or a summer season crop grown between February and May
on red sandy loams. Principal soil types on which finger millet is grown are red lateritic
loams or sandy loams, where deficiencies of major nutrients are common. Temperature
during the crop season varies between 25 and 32C, and a crop season might receive
nearly 400 to 500 mm precipitation. It possesses good drought recovery characteristics,
hence is suited for dry land agriculture, characterized by intermittent drought stress.
Drought years will obviously provide much less water for the crop. Preferred altitude
range for Ragi is between 1000 and 1800 msl.

51
o Weather sensitive farm operation
The weather sensitive farm operation is inter-cultivations, weeding and harvesting.
o Measuring the Impact of AAS
Station Crop Impact of AAS on cost
of cultivation
Impact of AAS
on gross returns
Impact of AAS
on net returns
Impact of AAS
on yield
Bangalore Finger millet Decrease by 8.3% Increase by 10.4% Increase by
45.9%
Increase by
10.4%

o Weather sensitive crop growth stages
Crop Crop growth
stage
Std
Met.
Week*
Important weather
parameter related to
respective crop growth
stage
Effect of weather
parameter
Ragi/
Finger
Millet
Bangalore
Early sown
(transplanted)

Harvesting
12

Rainfall

Lodging and shedding of
grains

Timely sown
(transplanted)
Vegetative &
Panicle initiation
stage
14 Rainfall and RH

Leads poor panicle
development & grain
filling
Late sown
(transplanted)
Grain filling
(Maturity)
16 Rainfall Poor grain filling leads
lesser yields
* For Standard Meteorological Week see Annexure-II

o Case Studies
What is the loss/gain
achieved due to the
recommendation (AAS vs.
non AAS)
Season Crop Operation Weather
parameter
crucial to
the crop
Date of AAS
recommendation
in light of the
prevailing
weather for that
operation
Whether
AAS
Recomm
endation
followed In Total cost of
cultivation
In Net
returns
Kharif
2005
Finger millet
Bangalore
Inter
cultivation
and
harvesting
Rainfall December 12, 13,
14, 15 and 18
21 Sep 2005
Recon : No rain is
forecasted; go for
Inter cultivation
and harvesting the
crop
Yes 433 / ac 1290 /ac
o Overall analysis of the results obtained in terms of use of weather based AAS.
Input Amount of Input used
In (Rs/acre)
Difference in yield due to the
Input in (Rs/acre)
Difference in the cost of
Cultivation in (Rs/acre)
AAS Non-AAS AAS Non-
AAS
Difference AAS Non-AAS Difference
Seed 87 103
FYM 978 1079
Fertilizer 572 600
Human labour 1251 1512
Bullock labour 300 268
Machine labour 992 995
7673 6950 723 4181 4557

-376


52
Pearl Millet/ Bajra

o AAS units undertaking study on Pearl Millet/ Bajra
Jodhpur Season: Kharif
Jaipur Season: Kharif
Pune Season: Kharif
o General information of crop
Pearl millet is most important rainfed crop of this zone. This crops is largely
cultivated by the farmers for both grain & fodder production. It responds to life saving
irrigation under moisture stress conditions. It prefers hot & humid weather. Optimum
time of sowing is first fortnight of July. Late sowing in the month of August causes poor
stand of crop due to high rate of mortality of the seedlings, restricted vegetative growth,
poor grain setting and more incidence of disease due to comparatively low temperature
during the period.
o Weather sensitive farm operations:
Sowing, plant protection, weed control, fertilizer application, harvesting &
threshing and post harvest are some of the weather sensitive farm operations. Tillering
and vegetative phase, flowering and grain formation stage are other operation
o Weather sensitive crop growth stages
Crop Station Crop growth
stage
Std.
Met.
Week*
Effect of weather parameters
Tillering 29 Water logging or moisture stress reduce tillering
Ear emergence 33 High humidity & drizzling causes ergot
Jaipur
Grain filling 36 Moisture stress causes shriveling of grains
Jodhpur


Early sown 23
rd
to
25
th

Pearl millet is sown with onset of monsoon after receiving sufficient
rainfall. If rainfall does occurs at emerging stage, it causes crust
formation and reduce the emergence percentage or plant population.
Crop requires rainfall at seedling stage for survival
Normal
sown
Normal sown 26
th
to
28
th

Normal sowing after receiving good rain and after sowing light
rainfall occurs crust formation of top soil takes place. The crop
yields depend on timely rainfall.
Pearl
Millet
Late sown 29
th
to
31
st

In late sown crop, yield reduces due to less or no rainfall at the time
of maturity caused by shortening of growing season due to moisture
stress.
* For Standard Meteorological Week see Annexure-II
o Measuring the Impact of AAS
Station Crop Impact of AAS
on cost of
cultivation
Impact of AAS on
gross returns
Impact of AAS on
net returns
Impact of AAS on yield
Jodhpur Pearlmillet Increase by
21.9%
Increase by 14.9 % Increase by 10.9 % Increase by 5.71 %
Jaipur Pearl millet Decrease by
1.05 %
Increase by 3.40 % Increase by 10.74 % Increase by 4.00 %
Pune Pearlmillet Increase by
2.0%
Increase by 9.4% Increase by 28.9% Increase by 26.8%
53
o Case studies

What is the loss/gain achieved due to the
recommendation (AAS vs non-AAS)
Season Crop Operation Weather
parameter
crucial to the
crop
Date of AAS recommendation in light
of the prevailing weather for that
operation
Whether AAS
Recommended
action
followed
In total cost of
cultivation(Rs/acre)
In Net returns
(Rs/acre)
Kharif
04
Pearl
millet

Jodhpur
Intercultural like
hoeing, weeding
broad casting of
N-fertilizers.
Rainfall 20
th
July to End 15
th
August With
sufficient rainfall start hoeing and
weeding and broadcasted urea.
yes Rs 600/- Rs. 800/-
Kharif-
04
Pearl
millet

Jaipur
Fertilizer
Application


Rainfall 31st Aug., 2004 . Forecast of no rain
Top dressing of urea is suggested in
view of dry weather
Yes Light rains occurred
Top dressed fertilizer
wasted, loss of Rs
114.6 Per acre
Negative impact on
net returns
Kharif
05
Pearl
millet
Irrigation Rainfall End of August to September . Yes Rs. 360/- Rs. 800
Kharif
2004
Pearl
Millet

Pune
Interculture Rainfall Jul 6 2004, Jul 27 2004 The sky will
be cloudy Carry out interculture
operations in already sown crops,
especially hoeing, weeding
Yes
Kharif
2005
Pearl
Millet

Pune
Harvesting Rainfall Sep 14 2004, Sep 17 2004 The sky
will be partly cloudy. The harvesting
of bajra, and groundnut should be
done at maturity as there is favorable
weather for harvesting.
Yes
Kharif-
06
Pearl
Millet

Pune
Sowing Temp.,
rainfall
May 23 2006-Thisyear according to
forecast there will be timely onset and
good rainfall will occur. So it is
advised to sow pulse crops.
Yes


The AAS farmers received a yield of 12-15%
more compared to the non-AAS farmers by
following the recommendation
Kharif
2006
Pearl
millet
Pune
Interculture rainfall Looking into the forecast of rains
farmers are advised to defer hoeing
and weeding (29
th
July, 2006)
Followed Saving of human
labour, thus saving in
cost of cultivation by
Rs 161.0/acre
Contributed 49.8
percent to the net
saving over non
AAS
Kharif
2007
Pearl
millet
Top dressing of
fertilizer
Top dressing
of fertilizer
Forecast of rains and farmers were
advised not to top dress urea (27
th

July, 2007)
Followed Saving in cost of
cultivation by Rs
320/-
Saving in net
returns over non
AAS farmers by Rs
495/-
54
o Overall analysis of the results obtained in terms of use of weather based AAS
Station: Jaipur












Station: Pune

Amount of input
used (kg/acre)
Difference in yield due to
input (Q/acre)
Difference in cost of cultivation (Rs/acre)
Input
AAS Non
AAS
Difference AAS Non AAS Diff
Seed (kg/acre) 1.3 1.4
Fertilizer (kg/acre) 95 79
Human lab (mandays/acre) 34 30
Machine labour(hrs/acre) 12 11
Irrigation (no/acre) 0.7 0.1
26.8
3825 3750 75
Input Amount of Input used
In (kg/acre)
Difference in yield due to the input
(Q/acre)
Difference in the cost of cultivation
(Rs/acre)
AAS Non-AAS AAS Non-AAS Difference AAS Non-AAS Difference
Seed (kg per acre) 1.4 1.5
Fertilizer(kg/acre 70 65
Herbicide (kg/acre) 0 0
Pesticide(kg/acre) 0.2 0
Human labour (Mandays/acre) 9 10
Machine labour (Total hours/acre) 4.3 5.1
21.4 20.5 0.9
265 268 -3
55
(c) Vegetables : Palak, Tomato, Capsicum,Onion,Potato

Palak

o AAS units undertaking study on Palak

Hyderabad Season: Rabi

o General information of crop

Palak is a cool season crop requiring mild climate. It tolerates frost and high
temperature under good irrigation. Under high temperature conditions, early bolting
occurs and leaves pass through edible stage quickly with poor yield. Well fertile sandy
loam soils with good drainage is ideal. For good vegetative growth and yield, application
of nitrogen @ 20-25 kg/ha, after every cutting as top dressing is recommended. Pre
sowing irrigation and a light irrigation few days after sowing for better germination is
ideal. In winter season, irrigation is required at 10-15 days interval. Its first flush of
leaves become ready for cutting 3-4 weeks after sowing and subsequent cuttings are
taken up at 15-20 days interval, thus 6-8 cuttings can be taken. Generally winter crop
gives higher yield. An average yield of 8-12 t/ha of leaves can be obtained. The crop is
prone to insect pests like aphids and diseases like leaf spots. The triggering events for the
above pest and diseases are cloudy and wet weather.

o Weather sensitive farm operation

Sowing; Irrigation, Plant protection; Fertilizer application and Harvesting


o Weather sensitive crop growth stages

Crop
Crop
growth
stage
Standard
Met. Week *
Important weather
parameter related to
respective crop growth stage
Effect of weather
parameter

Sowing 40 Rainfall
For sowing
timely


Palak
Vegetative
stage
42-12 Rainfall and cloud cover
Incidence of
leaf spots
* For Standard Meteorological Week see Annexure-II



56
o Case Studies

What is the loss/gain
achieved due to the
recommendation (AAS vs
non AAS)
Season Crop Operation Weather
parameter
crucial to
the crop
the
Date of AAS
recommendatio
n in light of the
prevailing
weather for
that operation
Whether
AAS
Recomm
endation
followed
Total cost of
cultivation
In Net
returns
Rabi-03 Palak
Hyderabad
Pesticides
spraying
Cloudy
weather &
Drizzling
Jan 27 2004
(Carbendazim)
Yes Rs. -570.3
(5.76%)
Rs.
4129.2
(26.75%)
Rabi-04 Palak
Pesticides
application
Cloudy
weather
Mar 11 2005
(COC)
Yes
Rs. 703.5
(6.22%)
Rs.
1537.3
(8.68%)

o Measuring the Impact of AAS

Station Crop Impact of AAS
on cost of
cultivation
Impact of AAS
on gross returns
Impact of AAS on
net returns
Impact of AAS
on yield
Hyderabad Palak Decrease by
9.4%
Increase by
24.6%
Increase by 25.1 Increase by
24.4%

o Overall analysis of the results obtained in terms of use of weather based AAS

Amount of
input used
(kg/acre)
Difference in yield due to
input (Q/acre)
Difference in cost of
cultivation (Rs/acre)
Input
AAS Non
AAS
AAS Non
AAS
Diff AAS Non AAS Diff
Seed (kgs/acre)
70 62
Fertilizer kg/acre) 787 833
Pesticide kg/acre) 51 71
Human labour
(mandays/acre) 189 172
Machine labour
(hrs/acre) 31 28
Irrigation (no/acre) 5 5
17.5 14.0



3.4
23522 25955 -2433



57
Tomato

o AAS units undertaking study on Tomato

Hyderabad Season: Rabi
Coimbatore Season: Kharif
Solan Season: Kharif (Mar-Aug)
Bangalore Season: Rabi
Bhubaneshwar Season: Rabi


o General Information of the crop

Tomato a warm season vegetable and is also grown extensively in cool season.
The optimum temperature required for its cultivation is 15-27oC. At high and low
temperatures there is a low germination of seeds, poor plant growth, flower drop, poor
fruit set and ripening. Under extreme high and low temperature conditions, yield and
quality of fruit is reduced. Mild winter condition is ideal for seed germination, plant
growth, fruit set, fruit development, and ripening. Extensive rains adversely affect its fruit
set causing flower drop. Sandy loam soils rich in organic matters are ideal for its
cultivation. For raising healthy crop, application of green manure, FYM, Neem cake and
bio-fertilizers are beneficial. Boron and Zinc are important micro nutrients, required for
realizing higher yields. Frequent irrigation is essential for optimum plant growth, fruiting
and yield. The crop should be irrigated at 8-12 days interval. Generally open furrow
method of irrigation is followed. Multiple picking are taken in tomatoes. The crop is
prone to insect pests like sucking pests, fruit borer, leaf miner, and diseases like leaf
spots, blight and viral diseases. The triggering events for the above pest and diseases are
maximum, minimum temperatures, humidity and rainfall.


o Weather sensitive farm operation

Sowing, Irrigation, Plant protection, Fertilizer application, weeding, irrigation,
picking and harvest
58
o Weather sensitive crop growth stages

* For Standard Meteorological Week see Annexure-II
Crop Station Crop growth
stage
Standard Met.
Week*
Important weather parameter
related to respective crop
growth stage

Effect of weather parameter

Sowing 40 Rainfall
Timely sowing
Seedling 41-44 Rainfall, cloud cover
Seedling diseases
Vegetative 45-48 Cloud cover and rainfall Incidence of leaf spots and blight
Tomato Hyderabad
Flowering and
Fruiting
49-60 Cloud cover, temperature
And rainfall
Incidence of insect pests, leaf spots, blight and
viral diseases
All stages Temperature Day temperature 36C and Night temperature
18C favours tomato growth.
Tomato planted in June/ November /December
gives higher yield and fetches good price.
High temperature during summer season makes
the Pollen to wither and pollination is greatly
affected. High temperature makes the leaves to
curl .To reduce the ill effects of high temperature
mulching can be practiced.
Tomato Coimbatore
All stages Rainfall Rainy weather is favourable for leaf spot disease.
Early sown
Vegetative &
flowering stage
8

Rainfall & Relative humidity

Due to high humidity and rainfall causes high
incidence of leaf curl and fruit rot.
Tomato Bangalore
Timely sown -
Vegetative &
Flowering stage
10

Rainfall, temperature and
relative humidity
Heavy rainfall causes high incidence of leaf curl
and fruit rot.
59
o Overall analysis of the results obtained in terms of use of weather based AAS

Station: Hyderabad
Amount of input used Difference in yield due to
input (Q/acre)
Difference in cost of
cultivation (Rs/acre)
Input
AAS Non
AAS
AAS Non AAS Diff AAS Non AAS Diff
Seed (gms/acre) 913 772
Fertilizer kg/acre) 856 899
Pesticide kg/acre) 13 12
Human labour (mandays/acre) 176 154
Machine labour (hrs/acre) 16 15
Irrigation (no/acre) 5 6
280 246
34
34253 34648 -395

Station: Solan
Amount of input used Difference in yield due to
input (Q/acre)
Difference in cost of
cultivation (Rs/acre)
Input
AAS Non
AAS
AAS Non AAS Diff AAS Non AAS Diff
Seedlings (100 per bundle) 85 113
FYM (kg/acre) 2079 1374
Fertilizer kg/acre)
190 25
Pesticide (kg/acre)
7 5
Human labour (mandays/acre)
82 63
107 85
22
18790 11973 6817




60


Station: Bhubaneshwar
Input Amount of Input used Difference in yield due to the input
(Rs/Acre)
Difference in the cost of cultivation (Rs./acre)
AAS Non-AAS AAS

Non-AAS

Difference

AAS Non-AAS Difference
Seed (gms/acre) 330 275
FYM (kg/acre) 1500 960
Fertilizer (kgs/acre) 913 590
Pesticide (kgs/acre) 596 250
Human labour (mand/ac) 1575 1575
Machine labour (hr/acre) 580 626
Irrigation (no/acre) 530 515
Assoc.cost (Rs/acre) 306 115
16876 13676 3200 6330 4906 1424
Station: Bangalore
Station: Coimbatore

Input Amount of Input used Difference in yield due to the input (Rs/acre) Difference in the cost of cultivation
(Rs/acre)
AAS Non-AAS AAS Non-AAS Difference AAS Non-AAS Difference
Seed (gms/acre) 2711 2840
FYM (kg/acre) 954 1017
Fertilizer (kgs/acre) 995 1112
Pesticide (kgs/acre) 196 302
Human labour (mand/ac) 2469 2667
Bullock labour (hr/acre) 167 233
Machine labour (hr/acre) 1258 1258
Irrigation (no/acre) 1100 1100
19084 17867 1217 9850 10532 -682
Input Amount of Input used Difference in yield due to the input
(Rs/acre)
Difference in the cost of cultivation
(Rs/acre)
AAS Non-AAS AAS Non-AAS Difference AAS Non-AAS Difference
Seed (gms/acre) 76 86
Fertilizer (kg/acre) 318 332
Pesticide (kgs/acre) 4 5
Human labour
(mandays/acre) 101 94
Machine labour (hr/acre) 5 6
Irrigation (no/acre) 12 13
89 79 10 5532 5885 -353
61
o Case Studies
What is the loss/gain achieved due to
the recommendation
(AAS vs non AAS)
Season Crop Operation Weather parameter
crucial to crop
the
Date of AAS
recommendation in light
of the prevailing weather
for that operation
Whether AAS
Recommendation
followed
In Total cost of
cultivation
In Net returns
Rabi-04
Pesticides
application
Cloud cover,
Rainfall
Dt .Nov 5 2004
(Mancozeb)
Yes
Rs. 700
(5.63%)
Rs.2000
(11.32 %)
Rabi 2005
Tomato
Hyderabad
Pesticides
spraying
Temperature
Dt. Dec 13 2005,
(Dimethoate)
Yes
Rs. 394 (3%) Rs. 2267 (10%)
Kharif 2004 Tomato
Coimbatore Irrigation
Rainfall Aug 3 2004; Sep 14 2004 ;
rain expected so save
irrigation cost
Yes
- Rs. 7440
Rabi2004-05 Tomato
Bangalore

Inter cultivation
Plant protection
and staking
measures and
harvesting
Rainfall and Relative
humidity and
temperature
Dec 24, 25, 27 and 29
2004 and Jan 6 7 8 and 9
2005 Recmm: No rain is
forested go for Inter
cultivation , spraying and
harvesting the crop
Yes 876 / ac 1800 /ac


o Measuring the Impact of AAS

Station Crop Impact of AAS on
cost of cultivation
Impact of AAS on gross
returns
Impact of AAS on net
returns
Impact of AAS on yield
Bhubaneshwar
Tomato
Increase by 10.9% Increase by 11.2% Increase by 11.4% Increase by 23.4%
Bangalore
Tomato Decrease by 6.5% Increase by 6.8% Increase by 25.9% Increase by 6.8%
Coimbatore Tomato Decrease by 1.6% Increase by 12.3% Increase by 16.3% Increase by 14.6%
Hyderabad
Tomato Decrease by 1.14% Increase by 19.0%
Increase by 30.2% Increase by 13.7%
Solan Tomato Increase by 56.94% Increase by 77.14% Increase by 80.93% Increase by 26.09%
62

Capsicum

o AAS units undertaking study on Capsicum

Solan Season: Kharif (March-August)

o General information of crop
Capsicum also known as Shimla Mirch is mostly cultivated in loamy or sandy
loam soils rich in organic carbon matter with pH of 6-7. Heavy soils are also favourable
under rainfed conditions. But in Himachal Pradesh it is widely cultivated under irrigated
conditions. The major source of irrigation is natural resources like spring water.. The
Capsicum are sown by indirect methods where in seedlings are raised in nurseries. After
the seedlings attain a height of 10-15 cm in 4-6 weeks, they are transplanted in the pits
made at a distance of 45x45 cm. Transplanting is mainly carried out in the evening. The
crop require frequent irrigation with well drainage system. The most critical stages are
flowering and fruit setting. Ripe fruits are harvested at frequent intervals. Post harvesting
handling of Capsicum is most important for uniform colour development.

o Weather sensitive farm operations
Sowing, transplanting, irrigation are some the weather sensitive farm operations.

o Measuring the Impact of AAS

Station Crop Impact of
AAS on cost
of
cultivation
Impact of
AAS on gross
returns
Impact of
AAS on net
returns
Impact of AAS
on yield
Solan Capsicum Increase by
2.18%
Increase by
57.28%
Increase by
61.26%
Increase by
20.07%

o Overall analysis of the results obtained in terms of use of weather based AAS
Station: Solan
Amount of input
used
Difference in yield due to
input (Q/acre)
Difference in cost of
cultivation (Rs/acre)
Input
AAS Non AAS AAS Non
AAS
Diff AAS Non
AAS
Diff
Seedlings (100 per bundle) 117 134
FYM (kg/acre) 2187 1379
Fertilizer kg/acre) 222 30
Pesticide (kg/acre) 7 5
Human labour
(mandays/acre) 83 63
44 37
7
19939 13103 6836
63
Onion

o AAS units undertaking study on Onion
Pune Season: Rabi

o General information of crop
Onion is an important commercial crop grown mostly in the rabi season in India.
Red and white varieties of onion are cultivated in the country. India is the second largest
producer of onion in the world with a production of 4 million tones. In India, the major
onion growing states are Maharashtra, Gujarat, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh.
Onion can thrive well under wide range of climate therefore, it can be grown in all
the seasons or year round. Extremes temperatures (heat/cold) or excessive rainfall are not
suitable for growing onion. One ploughing followed by two to three harrowing are
necessary for preparation of land. Mostly flat beds are preferred or it can be grown on
ridges and furrow layout.

o Weather sensitive farm operations
Ploughing, transplanting, irrigation, Weeding, Plant protection are some of
weather sensitive farm operations.

o Weather sensitive crop growth stages
Crop growth stage

Onion
Slandered
Met. week*
Important Weather
parameter related to
respective crop
growth stage
Effect of weather
parameter
Sowing seeds 34 Warm Temperature
Emergence in raised
beds
35 Warm Temperature Germination satisfactory
Seedling growth 35-41 Warm Temperature Seedling growth satisfactory
Transplanting 42 Cool temperature.
Humidity upto 85%
Delay transplanting
Establishment & growth
satisfactory Increased
bolting
Vegetative growth stage 42-45 Cool temperature.
Humidity upto 85%
Faster growth
Bulb formation stage 46 Cool temperature,
Humidity upto 85%
Faster growth
Bulb development stage 47-

Cool temperature,
Humidity upto 70%
Satisfactory growth

* For Standard Meteorological Week see Annexure-II

o Measuring the Impact of AAS
Station Crop Impact of AAS
on cost of
cultivation
Impact of AAS
on gross returns
Impact of AAS
on net returns
Impact of AAS on
yield
Pune Onion Increase by 0.9% Increase by
20.4%
Increase by
30.1%
Increase by 30.2%
64
o Overall analysis of the results obtained in terms of use of weather based AAS

o Case Studies

Input Amount of Input used Difference in yield due to the input
(Q/acre)
Difference in the cost of cultivation
(Rs/acre)
AAS Non-AAS AAS Non-AAS Difference AAS Non-AAS Difference
Seed (kg/acre) 3.5 3.4
Fertilizer (kg/acre) 154 173
Pesticide (kg/acre) 1.0 0.9
Human labour
(mandays/acre) 54 47
Machine labour
(hrs/acre) 19 15
Irrigation (no: acre) 5.0 5.1
30.2% 7979 7912 67
Season Crop Operation Weather
parameter crucial
to the crop
Date of AAS recommendation in
light of the prevailing weather for
that operation
Whether AAS
recommendation
followed
Gain/loss due to the
recommendation
(AAS vs Non AAS)
Rabi 04-05 Plant
protection
Cool Temperature
humidity up to
85%.

Nov 23 2004, Dec 212004, Dec 28
2004 There is decrease in minimum
temperature the cold condition prevail
during coming four days Thrips,
jassids and leaf blight on onion
should be controlled by spraying
Endosulfan 2 ml + Dithane M-45, 3
gram per liter water.
Rabi05-06 Sowing Warm Oct 25 & 28 2005Due to prediction
of rise in maximum temperature the
period is favorable for transplanting
of onion seedlings on flat bed
Irrigation Temperature Nov 7 2006. Dry weather so Irrigate
the crop at 10-12 days interval
Rabi 06-07
Onion

Interculture Cool Temperature,
humidity up to
85%.
Do the interculture operation like
weeding, hoeing.
Recommendation
followed

The AAS farmers gained
by 8-12% in total yield
when compared to the
non-AAs farmers by
following the advisory
65
Potato

o AAS units undertaking study on Potato
Anand Season: Rabi

o General information of crop
Potato is generally grown in Kheda, Anand, Mehsana, and Banaskantha districts
of State. Kufri Badshah, Kufri Pokhraj, Kufri Lauvker, Kufri Jawahar and Kufri Bahar
are the important varieties of the crop. The crop requires cool climate. Sandy or sandy
loam soil is favourable for the potato crop. Third week of November is optimum date of
planting of potato. The crop requires fertilizer at the rate of 200+ 100 + 100 NPK kg/ha
for proper growth and yield. Potato requires 8-10 irrigations at 8-10 days interval.

o Weather sensitive farm operation
Sowing, plant protection and harvest are some of the important weather sensitive
operations.

o Weather sensitive crop growth stages
Crop growth
stage
Potato
Standard
Met. Week*
Important weather
parameter related to
respective crop
growth stage
Effect of weather parameter
49-50
Cloudy sky, rainfall,
humidity
Cloudy sky or unseasonal
rainfall followed by hot and
humid days favours early blight
disease. Vegetative
50-51 Cloudy sky, rainfall
Cloudy sky or unseasonal
rainfall favours the angular leaf
spot disease.
Tuber bulking 01-09
Cloudy sky, rainfall,
humidity
Cloudy sky or unseasonal
rainfall followed by hot and
humid days, favours late blight
disease.
Maturity/
Harvest
12-13 Soil temperature
High soil temperature causes
rotting, degeneration and
malformation in the tubers.
* For Standard Meteorological Week see Annexure-II

o Measuring the Impact of AAS
Station Crop Impact of AAS on
cost of cultivation
Impact of AAS
on gross returns
Impact of
AAS on net
returns
Impact of
AAS on yield
Anand Potato Decrease by 3.1% Increase by
10.3%
Increase by
13.5%
Increase by
5.4%
66
o Case Studies
What is the loss/gain achieved due to the
recommendation (AAS vs non AAS)
Season Crop Operation Weather
parameter
crucial to the
crop
Date of AAS
recommendation in
light of the prevailing
weather for that
operation (write the
recommendation also)
Whether
AAS
Recomme
ndation
followed
In Total cost of
cultivation
In Net returns
Rabi
(2005-06)
Potato Planting Temperature Nov 7 2006
The planting should be
carried out in the first
fortnight November or
as per the optimum
temperature of 22-23
C
Yes . AAS farmer saved Rs.
692/acre by following
timely planting of
potato.
Higher net return
(Rs. 37889/acre ) as
compared to Non-
AAS farmers(Rs.
33179/acre).
Rabi
(2006-07)
Potato Irrigation Rainfall Dec 10-12 2006 As no
forecast of rainfall, go
for irrigation
Yes AAS farmers have
invested Rs. 748/acre
for irrigation as per the
advice of AAB. The
Non-AAS farmers
spent Rs. 186/acre
more by not applying
required irrigation at
proper time.
Higher net return to
the tune of Rs.
31716/ace as
compared to Non-
AS farmers (Rs.
28167/acre).

o Overall analysis of the results obtained in terms of use of weather based AAS


Amount of Input used
(Rs/acre)
Difference in yield due to the
input (q/acre)
Difference in the cost of cultivation
(Rs/acre)
Input
AAS Non-AAS AAS Non-AAS Difference AAS Non-AAS Difference
Seed 1174 1060
Fertilizer
232 209
Irrigation
7 7
Pesticide
1 1
84

78

6

1547 1596 -49
67
(d) Cash crops : Cotton, Jute

Cotton

o AAS units undertaking study on Cotton

Hyderabad Season: Kharif
Hisar Season: Kharif
Coimbatore Season: Rabi (August-February)

o General information of crop

Cotton is grown in an area of 10 lakh hectares in black cotton soils under rainfed
conditions of Andhra Pradesh during Kharif season. In Hisar, Cotton crop is sown in May
(timely sowing) under assured irrigation facilities. In Coimbatore its normal date of sowing
is around 15th August. It is a commercial crop grown under high input conditions. Cotton
is an indeterminate plant and any weather aberrations during crop season will adversely
effect the square, flower and boll shedding. It cannot stand continuous wet and overcast
weather at any stage. Low light intensities lower the yield. The optimum temperature
range for vegetative growth is 21-27
o
C. During the period of fruiting, warm days and
cool nights with large diurnal variations are conducive for good boll and fiber
development. Since it is grown under high input conditions, it is prone to severe pest and
diseases. Many of the pests and diseases are weather driven, right advice at right time
based on the weather will help in effective control of pests and diseases thereby reducing
the expenditure and thereby improving the yields.

o Weather sensitive farm operation
Sowing, Fertilizer application, Plant protection, Picking (Harvesting),irrigation are the
weather sensitive farm operations.

o Measuring the Impact of AAS

Station Crop Impact of AAS
on cost of
cultivation
Impact of AAS on
gross returns
Impact of
AAS on net
returns
Impact of
AAS on yield
Hisar Decrease by 4 % Increase by 3.0% Increase by
6 %
Increase by
23.3%
Coimbatore Decrease by
6.13%
Increase by 0.6% Increase by
16.9%
Increase by
0.8%
Hyderabad
Cotton

Decrease by
18.19%
Increase by 2.2% Increase by
20.5%
Increase by
0.8%
68
o Weather sensitive crop growth stages

Crop Station Crop growth stage Standard
Met.
Week*
Imp weather parameter related
to respective crop growth stage
Effect of weather
parameter
Seedling stage 25-27 Rainfall Timely sowing

Vegetative 28-32 Rainfall and cloud cover Incidence of sucking
Pests

Square initiation 33-34 Rainfall and cloud cover Drop in flower buds and
incidence of
pests and diseases

Flowering 35-39 Rainfall and cloud cover Flower drop, attack of
pests and diseases

Boll initiation and
development

36-42 Rainfall and cloud cover Boll drop, attack of pests and diseases
Hyderabad
Boll maturity and harvest 43-47 Rainfall Fiber damage

Hisar Timely sown
Germination

Flower bud/Square
formation
Boll development

19 & 20


31, 32 &
33


35, 36, 37
& 38

Temp, moisture

Temp, moisture

Temp, moisture


High temp burns young seedlings.
High temp & moisture stress sheds
flower buds/squares.
High temp & moisture stress sheds
bolls.
Cotton
Coimbatore Establishment From sowing
to head initiation
1. Air Temperature
2. Soil temperature
Optimum temperature is 18 to 21C.
Soil temperature <20C Liable for
attack of seed borne pathogens and
smothering by weeds.
69
Vegetative stage -from
head initiation to head
emergence
1. Temperature Minimum temperature for growth is
15C; optimum temperature is 27 to
30C, >38C is harmful. Night
temperature >21C delayed the floral
bud differentiation.

Flowering
-from head
emergence to
seed set

1. Rainfall
2. Temperature
1.Water stress will lead to early
maturity
2. Rainfall during flowering
reduces the yield
3. Severe water stress during flowering
period cause pollination failure or
head blast.
4. Boot leaf stages very sensitive
to temperature
5. low temperatures (<15C) and high
temperatures (>35C) lead to poor
seed set, problems with ripening and
reduced yield Water sensitive
stage

Yield formation
(from seed set
to physiological
maturity)

1. Temperature
2. Soil moisture stress
3. Diurnal variation
1. Optimum temperature 26C
2. Temperature >28C affects the
yield
3. Soil moisture stress affects
grain filling and reduces the
yield
4. Day / night temperature
regimes of 33/28C arrested
floral development.
5. Sensitive to water stress
Ripening from
physiological
maturity to harvest

1. Rainfall
1. Cloudy and wet weather will favour
head mould and sugary
disease.

* For Standard Meteorological Week see Annexure-II


70
o Case Studies
What is the loss/gain achieved due
to the recommendation (AAS vs
non AAS)
Season Crop Operation Weather
parameter
crucial to the
crop
Date of AAS recommendation in
light of the prevailing weather for
that operation (write the
recommendation also)
Whether AAS
Recommendati
on followed
In Total cost of
cultivation
In Net returns
Irrigation Rainfall 23 July, 04 (Rain expected,
withheld irrigation)
Followed Loss in net returns Kharif 04
Spray Temp&
Cloudiness
21 Sept, 04 (No rains, spray crop) Followed Gain in total cost and net returns
Kharif 06
Cotton
Hisar
Irrigation Rainfall 4 July, 06 (No rain, spray crop) Followed Gain in total cost and net return
Kharif 05 Pesticides
spraying
Cloud cover,
Rainfall
Dt.09-08-2005
(Imidachloprid)
Yes Rs. 2223
(18 %)
Rs. 2255
(22 %)
Kharif -06
Cotton
Hyderabad
Pesticides
spraying
Cloud cover,
Rainfall
Dt.29-09-2006
(Monocrotophos)
Yes Rs. 3682
(26.39%)
Rs. 4361
(38.95%)
Rabi 2004 Cotton
Coimbatore
Fertilizer
application
Minimum
Temperature
29-30Sep 2004. Decrease in
minimum temperature expected,
give top dressing of nitogenous
fertilizer
Yes Gain in net returns as well as in the
yield

o Overall analysis of the results obtained in terms of use of weather based AAS
Station: Hisar
Amount of Input used Difference in yield due to the input
(Q/acre)
Difference in the cost of cultivation
(Rs/acre)
Input (per acre)
AAS Non-AAS AAS Non-
AAS
Difference AAS Non-AAS Difference
Seed (kg) 5 5
Fertilizer (kg) 105 90
FYM (ton) 4 --
Irrigation (No.) 3 5
Herbicide -- --
Pesticide (Rs) 879 834
Labour (Rs) 3000 3300


10.6


8.6


2.0


11550



12377



- 827
71
Station: Coimbatore


Station: Hyderabad
Amount of input used Difference in yield due to
input (Q/acre)
Difference in cost of
cultivation (Rs/acre)
Input
AAS Non AAS AAS Non AAS Diff AAS Non AAS Diff
Seed (kg/acre) 7.8 7.2
Fertilizer kg/acre) 233 302
Pesticide kg/acre) 5 8
Human labour (mandays/acre) 42 34
Machine labour (hrs/acre) 8 10
Irrigation (no/acre) 0.5 0.4
24.8 24.6
0.2
27454 33560 -6106
Amount of input used Difference in yield due to
input (Q/acre)
Difference in cost of cultivation
(Rs/acre)
Input
AAS Non AAS AAS Non
AAS
Diff AAS Non AAS Diff
Seed (gms/acre) 3.5 3.6
Fertilizer (kg/acre) 269 262
Pesticide (kgs/acre) 2 3
Human labour (man days/acre) 49 59
Machine labour (hr/acre) 12 16
Irrigation (no/acre) 12 13
12.6 12.2 0.4 4420 4660 -240
72
Jute

o AAS units undertaking study on Jute
Kalyani Season: Kharif

o General information of crop
Jute crop from its sowing to harvesting faced several constrains . Usually Farmers
of this zone sown the crop using pre monsoon shower but in the last year amount and
distribution of pre monsoon rain was very poor . So they faced severe problems during
sowing time . Some marginal and Progressive farmers sown their crop using irrigation.
Onset of monsoon was in time but break of monsoon during active vegetative period
created water stress.
Due to high humidity and temperature variation initiation of various insect and
disease was observed like Bihar hairy caterpillar, Jute semilopper rotting etc . The
intensity was so severe that NAAS farmers were confused to control the infestation and
get help from us regarding this matter. Lastly in the harvesting, retting and washing crop
was in critical condition due to lack of rainfall.

o Weather sensitive farm operation
Raising of seedling; Plant protection; Harvesting; Retting

o Weather sensitive crop growth stages
Crop Station
Growth stages
Important weather
elements
Weather parameters
Germination

Temperature
Rainfall
1-2 pre-sowing irrigation is needed for optimum
germination if rain breaks during germination
period with severe heat.
Vegetative
stage
1. Temperature
2. Rainfall
3. Wind
4. Humidity
High temperature, high moisture content, high
relative humidity and mild wind are required for
optimum growth of jute crop. Low temperature
(< 20
0
C) at this stage cause premature flowering,
and thereby deteriorates quality of the fiber.
Jute Kalyani
Harvesting &
Retting
1. Temperature
2. Rainfall
Optimum temperature is (34
0
C) essential for
good retting and good quality of water required
for good fiber.

o Measuring the Impact of AAS

Station Crop Impact of AAS
on cost of
cultivation
Impact of AAS
on gross returns
Impact of AAS
on net returns
Impact of AAS on yield

Kalyani

Jute

Decrease by
24.9%

Increase by 11%

Increase by 21%

Increase by 14.1%
73
o Case studies

o Overall analysis of the results obtained in terms of use of weather based AAS
Input Amount of Input used Difference in yield due to the input Difference in the cost of cultivation(Rs./acre)
AAS Non-AAS AAS
(Q/Acre)
Non-AAS
(Q/Acre)
Difference
(Q/Acre)
AAS Non-AAS Difference
Seed (Kg/acre) 2.5 3
Fertilizer (Kg/acre 48 56
FYM 0 0
Irrigation (no./acre) 1 0.3
Plant protection chemical 0 0
Herbicide 0 0
Pesticide (lts./acre) 0.5 0.7
33 29 4 4510 6005 -1495

What is the loss/gain achieved due to
the recommendation (AAS vs non AAS)
Season Crop Operation Weather
parameter
crucial to the
crop
Date of AAS recommendation
in light of the prevailing
weather for that operation
(write the recommendation
also)
Whether AAS
Recommendat
ion followed
In Total cost of
cultivation
In Net
returns
Jute a)Raising of
seedling
b) Plant
protection
c) Harvesting
d) Retting

Temperature
Rainfall
Wind
Humidity
1. Some times at high
temperature with severe
drought results dry up the
seedlings.
2. Optimum temperature 22
to 30C
3. 5-7 cm water require for
active root development.
4. Very high wind speed
leads to lodging of seedlings
and tip drying .(50DAS)


- Rs.1915 per acre could be saved by
AAS compared to NAAS in total
cost of cultivation by following the
AAS recommendation.

- The yield for AAS was higher by
0.83 Q/acre (main product and 1.05
Q/acre (By product) as compared to
the NAAS.
74
Tobacco

o AAS units undertaking study on Tobacco
Anand Season: Kharif

o General information of crop
Bidi tobacco is generally grown in Anand, Vadodara, Kheda and Panchmahals
districts. For irrigated region, the high yielding varieties are Anand-2, Anand-119,
Gujarat Ttobacco-5, Gujarat Tobacco-9 and Gujarat Tobacco Hybrid-1. In some parts of
Panchmahals district Anand-119 is grown as unirrigated crop. Tobacco is transplanted
during 2
nd
week of August to 3
rd
week of September. Crop requires 3 to 4 irrigations at 20
days interval. Crop is transplanted after green manuring of sunhemp. The chemical
fertilizer requirement is 180 + 0 +0 NPK kg/ha.

o Weather sensitive farm operation
Seedling, irrigation application, spray, harvesting are the main weather sensitive
operations.
o Weather sensitive crop growth stages

Crop growth
stage
Standard
Met.
Week*
Important weather
parameter related to
crop growth stage
Effect of weather parameter
Seedling 30-33 Temperature, Humidity High moisture cause damping off
40-44 Temperature
High temperature deteriorate the
leaf quality
45-52
Soil moisture,
temperature
High soil moisture and low
temperature favours growth of
Orobanche
Vegetative
49-05 Temperature
Low temperature favours the leaf
curl disease
Maturity 9-13 Rainfall
Rainfall deteriorate the leaf quality
Harvesting 9-13 Cloudiness, rainfall
Cloudy sky and rainfall affect the
quality of the leaves during
harvesting and sun drying.
* For Standard Meteorological Week see Annexure-II

o Measuring the Impact of AAS

Station Crop Impact of AAS
on cost of
cultivation
Impact of
AAS on gross
returns
Impact of
AAS on net
returns
Impact of AAS
on yield
Anand Tobacco Increase by 2.8
%
Increase by
11.7%
Increase by
21.5 %
Increase by
0.9%

75

o Case Studies




o Overall analysis of the results obtained in terms of use of weather based AAS
What is the loss/gain achieved due to
the recommendation (AAS vs non AAS)
Season Crop Operation Weather
parameter
crucial to
the crop
Date of AAS
recommendatio
n in light of the
prevailing
weather for that
operation
Whether
AAS
Recomm
endation
followed
In Total cost of
cultivation (Rs/acre)
In Net returns
(Rs/acre)
Kharif
(2005-
06)
Fertilizer
application
Rain fall 15/8/2005
As there was no
forecast for
rainfall, the
recommended
basal dose of
fertilizer should
be applied
Yes AAS farmers invested
total 1535 Rs/acre for
timely application of
top dressing. He only
invested Rs. 17 /acre
as compared to Non-
AAS farmer.
By timely
application of
fertilizer his net
return was
higher to the
tune of Rs.
667/acre as
compared to
Non-AAS
farmer.
Kharif
(2006-
07)
Tobacco
Irrigation Rain fall 16 to 19/1/2007
light irrigation
recommended for
tobacco

Yes AAS farmers invested
total Rs. 700/acre for
irrigation as per the
AAB advisory. AAB
advised irrigation need
based time and
frequency of irrigation.
For timely and
effective irrigation he
has invested only Rs.
150/acre more as
compared to Non-AAS
farmers.
By timely
application of
irrigation as per
the crop need
his net return
was higher to
the tune of Rs.
655/acre as
compared to
Non-AAS
farmers.
Amount of Input
used (Kgs/Acre)
Difference in yield due to the
input (Q/acre)
Difference in the cost of
cultivation (Rs/acre)
Input
AAS Non-AAS AAS Non-
AAS
Difference AAS Non-
AAS
Difference
Seed 2 2
Fertilizer 184 209
Irrigation 6 6
Pesticide 1 1
6.4

4.5

0.9

760 739 21
76
(e) Oil Seeds : Mustard

Mustard

o AAS units undertaking study on Mustard
Hisar Season: Rabi
Kalyani Season: Rabi

o General Information about the crop
In India rape and mustard is grown during winter season and it is observed that
the crop needs about 18
0
C to 25
0
C temperature, low humidity, practically no rain
especially at the time of flowering. Rainfall, high humidity and cloudy weather are not
good for the crop during winter, as it invites aphids and the crop gets spoiled completely.
However, under rainfed conditions one to two pre-flowering rains help in boosting the
grain yield. Excessive cold and frost are harmful to the crop.
Generally the rape and mustards thrive best in medium or heavy loam soils except
taramira which is grown lighter soils butt heavy soils subjected to water logging should
be avoided as the crop cannot tolerate such conditions. Though the crop is grown during
winter season and there is very little chance of water logging but still due to heavy winter
rains the water may get accumulated and cause a temporary water logging. Very light
soils usually cause a serious moisture stress and a poor crop growth is observed. Saline
and alkaline soils are often not fit for the crop though it has good tolerance to such
conditions.

o Weather sensitive farm operation
Sowing, land preparation, irrigation application, chemical spray, harvesting and
threshing were the weather sensitive operations.

o Measuring the Impact of AAS

Station Crop Impact of
AAS on cost
of cultivation
Impact of
AAS on
gross
returns
Impact of
AAS on net
returns
Impact of AAS on
yield
Hisar Mustard Decrease by 6
%
Increase by
3.9%
Increase by
7 %
Increase by 16.7%
Kalyani Mustard Decrease by
17.3%
Increase by
11.3%
Increase by
14.3%
Increase by 0.5%
Jodhpur Mustard Decrease by
1.8 %
Increase by
9.5 %
Increase by
23 %
Increase by 7.14 %
77
o Weather sensitive crop growth stages
Crop Station Crop growth
stage
Standard
Met. Week
*
Imp. weather parameter
related to respective crop
growth stage
Effect of weather parameter
Hisar Timely sown
Germination
Flowering

Seed setting


Ripening

Late sown
Germination
Flowering

Seed setting
Ripening

42 & 43

51 & 52


1 & 2

10, 11 & 12


45 & 46

1 & 2

2 & 3

11,12 &13

Temp

Temp, fog etc


Temp, cloudiness, fog
Temp

Temp

Temp, fog etc


Temp and fog


Temp

High temp burns young seedlings
Low temp & fog hinder flower & siliquae
formation
Low temp & fog hinder seed setting

Small seed size due to high temp

Low temp & fog hinder germination
Low temp & fog hinder flower & siliquae
formation
Low temp & fog hinder seed setting

High temp causes force maturity
Vegetative
/branching
Temperature Rainfall,
Wind
Low temperature favours the growth.
High temperature and cloudy weather is not
favorable for growth and also cause infestation of
aphid.
High rainfall is not good but rain at branching and
pre-flowering stage is beneficial of good yield.
Very high wind speed leads to lodging of
seedlings and tip drying.
Mustard
Kalyani
Harvesting and
threshing
Temperature Relative humidity
Light

Low temperature increase the oil percentage
Optimum temperature 32 to 34C.
Bright sunshine is required for threshing and
drying of the grain.
* For Standard Meteorological Week see Annexure-II
78
o Case Studies
What is the loss/gain achieved
due to the recommendation
(AAS vs non AAS)
Season Crop Operation Weather
parameter
crucial to
the crop
Date of AAS
recommendation in
light of the prevailing
weather for that
operation (write the
recommendation also)
Whether
AAS
Recommend
ation
followed
In Total cost of
cultivation
In Net returns
Rabi04-
05
Mustard
Kalyani
(a) Land
preparation
(b) Sowing
(c) Plant
protection
(d)
Harvesting
and threshing

Temperature
Relative
humidity
Light
Wind

1. Low temperature
favours the growth.
2. High temperature and
cloudy weather is not
favourable for growth
and also cause infestation
of aphid.
3. High rainfall is not
good but rain at
branching and pre-
flowering stage is
beneficial of good yield.
4. Very high wind speed
leads to lodging of
seedlings and tip drying.
(30DAS)
Yes
- Rs.940 per acre could be saved
by AAS compared to NAAS in
total cost of cultivation by
following the AAS
recommendation.

- The yield for AAS were
higher by 0.02Q/acre as
compared to the NAAS.


Rabi 05-
06
Mustard
Jodhpur
Plant
protection
Cloudy
weather
Middle of December to
Middle of February
Yes Rs 200-250/- Rs. 1500/-
Sowing Rainfall 10 Oct, 06 (No rain,
sowing on conserved soil
moisture
Followed Less total cost, gain in net returns
Irrigation Temp 2 Jan, 07 (Frost likely,
irrigate crop)
Followed Gain in total cost and net return
Rabi 06-
07
Mustard
Hisar
Spray Rainfall 6 Feb, 07 (No rain,
spray crop)
Followed but
heavy rains
followed
Gain in total cost and loss in net return
79
o Overall analysis of the results obtained in terms of use of weather based AAS
Station: Hisar
Amount of Input
used (Kg/acre)
Difference in yield due to the input
(Q/acre)
Difference in the cost of cultivation
(Rs/acre)
Input(per
acre)
AAS Non-AAS AAS Non-AAS Difference AAS Non-AAS Difference
Seed (kg) 2 2
Fertilizer
(kg)
120 95
FYM (ton) -- --
Irrigation
(No.)
2 3
Herbicide -- --
Pesticide Rs) 451/- 390/-
Labour (Rs) 1400/- 1475/-


6.3


5.4


0.9


5814



5887



-73

Station: Kalyani
Amount of Input
used (Kg/acre)
Difference in yield due to the input
(Q/Acre)
Difference in the cost of cultivation
(Rs/acre)
Input (acres)
AAS Non-
AAS
AAS Non-AAS

Difference

AAS Non-AAS Difference
Seed (Kg) 3.4 3.8
Fertilizer Kg) 50 55
FYM 0 0
Irrigation (no.) 2 2
Plant protection
chemical

Herbicide 0 0
Pesticide (lts) 0.5 0.5

6.3

5.8

0.5
4485 5425 -940

80
(f) Pulses : Gram, Redgram/Tur, Field Bean

Gram

o AAS units undertaking study on Gram
Raipur Season: Rabi
Jaipur Season: Rabi

o General information of crop

Gram requires cool and humid climate. The seeds of the crop can germinate over a wide
range of temperature from 10 45C. Temperature around the 15-20C is optimum for its
growth. The ideal soil temperature for the nodulation is 15-25C. Soil temperature
exceeding 30C affects the nodulation. Excessive rains after the sowing and at flowering
are harmful. The highest pod formation has been received at RH from 20-40%. Above
this have negative influence on seed setting and below this results in reduced yield.

o Weather sensitive farm operation:
Sowing, Plant protection and Harvesting operation.

o Weather sensitive growth stages
Crop Crop Growth
Stage
Standard
Met.
Week*
Imp weather parameter
related to respective crop
growth stage
Effect of weather
parameter
Raipur
Timely
sown
Flowering and
pod formation
52 Cloudy weather Incidence of insect pest
along with powdery
mildew
Late sown Pod
Development
17 High temperature Leads to forced
maturity and small
grains.
Pre-flowering 50 Cloudy weather
cause blight
Flowering 1 Frost attack
reduces yield
Gram
Jaipur
Pod filling 7 Winter showers
spoils seeds
* For Standard Meteorological Week see Annexure-II

o Measuring the impact of AAS
Station Crop Impact of AAS on
cost of cultivation
Impact of AAS on
gross returns
Impact of AAS on
net returns
Impact of AAS on
yield
Raipur Gram Decrease by
3.2%
Increase by
14.1%
Increase by
47.7%
Increase by 16%
Jaipur Gram Decrease by 4.72
%
Increase by 8.91
%
Increase by 11.32
%
Increase by 7.14 %
81
o Overall analysis of the results obtained in terms of use of weather based AAS
Station: Raipur
Station: Jaipur

o Case studies
What is the loss/gain
Achieved due to recommendation
(AAS Vs Non AAS)
Season Crop Weather
Parameters
Crucial to
the crop
Date of AAS
Recommendation in light
of the prevailing Weather
(Also write recommendation)
Whether AAS
Recommendat
ion
Followed

In Total cost
of Cultivation
In net returns
Rabi04-05 Irrigation In View of forecast of rains
farmer are advised to defer
irrigation at pod formation
stage (23
rd
Jan., 2004)
Followed Saving of Rs
111/acre
Contributed
19.5 percent to
the net saving
over non AAS
Rabi05-06 Interculture Looking into the forecast of
rains farmers are advised
to defer hoeing and weeding
(30
th
Dec., 2005)
Followed Saving of human
labour, thus saving
in cost of
cultivation by Rs
162.4/acre
Contributed
11.6 percent to
the net saving
over non AAS
Rabi
(2006-7)
Gram
Jaipur

Plant
protection
Looking into the drop in
minimum temperature by 3-4
O
C farmers are advised to adopt
protection against frost (23
January, 2007)
Followed Increases cost of
cultivation by Rs
250.0 / Acre
Frost occurred
and AAS
farmers saved
their crop
against frost





Amount of input
used
Difference in yield due to
Input (Q/acre)
Difference in cost of
cultivation (Rs/acre)
Input (acre)
AAS Non AAS AAS Non AAS Diff AAS Non AAS Diff
Seed (kg)
32 34
Fertilizer (kg)
39 38
Herbicide (kg)
0 0
Pesticide (kg)
1 0
Human labour (mandays)
23 27
Machine labour (hrs)
6 6
Irrigation (no) 2 2
18 16 2
494 532 -38
Amount of Input
used
Difference in yield due to
the input ( Q/acre)
Difference in the cost of
cultivation (Rs/acre)
Input (per acre)
AAS Non-
AAS
AAS Non-
AAS
Diff AAS Non-
AAS
Differe
nce
Seed (kg ) 30 31
Fertilizer(kg) 25 15
Herbicide (kg) 0 0
Pesticide(l) 1 1
Human labour (mandays) 22 12
Machine labour (Total hours) 4 4
Irrigation (no.) (per farmer) 1 2


2.9


2.5


0.4


3372



3485



-113
82
Redgram/Tur

AAS units undertaking study on Redgram
Bangalore Season: Kharif

o General information of Crop
Redgram (Cajanus cajan) is the second most important pulse crop which constitutes
14.44 % and 15.95 % national pulse acreage and production with a productivity of 1200
kg/ha. It has multiple uses . Pigeon pea is perennial and perhaps evolved as a backyard
crop. It is a warm season crop but adapts well to lower altitudes of tropics and subtropics
(0 to 1500m), in well-distributed rainfall of 500-900mm. Temperature regime is 10 to
40C but optimum is 20 to 28C. It is a mesophyte well adapted to drought prone areas
but does not tolerate water logging and frost. Root system is deep and expansive and
breaks the plough pan hence it is called a biological plough.
It is grown in wide range of soils. The most suitable pH range is 5 to 8; pigeonpea
tolerates salinity and alkalinity to certain extent. The critical EC is 1.5 dsm
-1
. But does
not tolerate acidity, due to Al toxicity. However, this can be corrected by liming.

o Weather sensitive farm operation
The weather sensitive farm operation is earthing up, plant protection measures
and harvesting.

o Weather sensitive crop growth stages
Crop Crop growth
stage
Std
Met.
Week*
Important weather
parameter related to
respective crop
growth stage
Effect of weather
parameter
Redgram
/tur
Bangalore
Early sown
Vegetative &
flowering
stage
18

Rainfall & Relative
humidity

Dry weather Abortion of
flowers, high incidence of
pod borer

Timely
sown -
Vegetative &
Flowering
stage

22

Rainfall, temperature
and relative humidity
Due to prolong dry spells at
flowering & pod formation
stage results in poor yields,
lack of moisture at harvest
stage is a major problem
leads to poor grain filling
and lesser yields.
Late sown Pod
development
and harvest

26-28

Rainfall, wind speed
and relative humidity.
.High incidence of pod borer
as a result causes reduction
of pod yield.
* For Standard Meteorological Week see Annexure-II
83

o Measuring the impact of AAS
Station Crop Impact of AAS
on cost of
cultivation
Impact of AAS on
gross returns
Impact of AAS on net
returns
Impact of AAS on
yield
Bangalore Red gram Decrease by
14.1%
Increase by 14.8% Increase by 32.7% Increase by 14.8%
o Case studies
What is the loss/gain
achieved due to the
recommendation (AAS vs.
non AAS)
Season Crop Operation Weather
parameter
crucial to
the crop
Date of AAS
recommendation in
light of the prevailing
weather for that
operation (write the
recommendation also)
AAS
Rcm
m
follo
wed In Total cost
of cultivation
In Net
returns
Kharif
2005

Red
gram

Inter
cultivation ,
Plant
protection
measures
and harvesting
Rainfall and
Relative
humidity
22, 23, 25 Sept , 28-30
August , 17,19,20 and 21
Jan06 Recon : No rain
is forested go for
spraying, it should be
before initiation of
flower and harvesting
the crop
Yes 762 / ac 2523 /ac
Kharif
2006
Red
gram

Inter
cultivation ,
Plant
protection
measures
and harvesting
Rainfall and
Relative
humidity
25-27 Sept and 12-19
Oct and 1-3 Nov
Recon : No rain is
forested go for spraying
and harvesting the crop
Yes 549 / ac 1399 /ac

o Overall analysis of the results obtained in terms of use of weather based AAS

Input Amount of Input
used In (Rs/acre)
Difference in yield due to the input
In (Rs/acre)
Difference in the cost of cultivation
(Rs/acre)
AAS Non-
AAS
AAS Non-AAS Difference AAS Non-
AAS
Difference
Seed 110 125
FYM 880 1152
Fertilizer 517 609
Pesticide 393 523
Human labour 1120 1317
Bullock labour 200 167
Machine
labour 858 858
14236 12405 1831 4078 4751 -673
84

Field Bean

o AAS units undertaking study on Field Bean
Bangalore Season: Rabi

o General information of crop
Field bean (Dolichos lablab L.) is one of the most ancient among the cultivated
crop. It is grown throughout the tropical regions of Asia, Africa and America. The crop
is multipurpose and can be used as pulse, vegetable forage but farmers grow it for seed
purpose due to high profit over the other sources. It is indigenous and commercially
cultivated in Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra.
It is relatively cool season crop and it is best adapted to tropical and sub-tropical areas.
Most of the varieties grow well in temperature ranging between 18C to 30C. Severe
frost damages the crop. The crop is sensitive to photoperiod and both short day and long
day types are available. It can be grown in wide range of soil except alkaline and saline
soils.

o Weather sensitive farm operation
The weather sensitive farm operation is earthling up, plant protection measures and
harvesting.

o Weather sensitive crop growth stages
Crop growth stage
Std Met.
Week*
Important weather
parameter related to
respective crop
growth stage
Effect of weather
parameter
Early sown Vegetative &
flowering stage
15

Rainfall relative
humidity and
temperature

Dry weather Abortion
of flowers, high
incidence of pod
borer
Timely sown -Vegetative
& Flowering stage
18

Rainfall and relative
humidity
Due to heavy
moisture stress at
flowering & pod
formation stage is a
major problem which
leads to poor pod
filling and lesser
yields.
Late sown Pod
development and harvest

20-22

Due to severe
moisture stress results
in poor pod yield.
* For Standard Meteorological Week see Annexure-II
85

o Measuring the impact of AAS
Station Crop Impact of AAS
on cost of
cultivation
Impact of
AAS on gross
returns
Impact of AAS on
net returns
Impact of
AAS on yield
Bangalore Field
bean
Decrease by 9.9% Increase by
11.8%
Increase by 19.3% Increase by
10.4%
o Case studies
What is the
loss/gain achieved
due to the
recommendation
(AAS vs. non AAS)
Season Crop Operation Weather
parameter
crucial to
the crop
Date of AAS
recommendation
in light of the
prevailing
weather for
that operation
AAS
Recomm
followed
In Total
cost of
cultivation
In Net
returns
Rabi-
2005-
06
Field
bean
Inter
cultivation
, Plant
protection
measures
and
harvesting
Rainfall
Relative
humidity
and
temperature
July 1 -4 and
Feb 19- 20
June Recon :
No rain is
forecasted go
for Inter
cultivation ,
spraying and
harvesting the
crop
Yes 760 / ac 4434.6
/ac

o Overall analysis of the results obtained in terms of use of weather based AAS
Input Amount of Input
used (Rs/acre)
Difference in yield due to the input
(Rs/acre)
Difference in the cost of
cultivation (Rs/acre)
AAS Non-
AAS
AAS Non-
AAS
Difference AAS Non-
AAS
Difference
Seed
294 329
FYM
995 1124
Fertilizer
869 986
Pesticide
97 148
Human labour
2574 2980
Bullock labour
200 267
Machine
labour 886 892
Irrigation
1400 400
35304 31580 3724 7314 8126 -812
86
(g) Fruits : Banana

Banana

AAS units undertaking study on Banana
Thrissur Season: Kharif & Rabi
Coimbatore Season: Annual
General information of Banana
Banana is chief fruit crop in Kerala. Nendran banana is well known for banana
chips. Other than Nendran, many varieties of banana are cultivated across the State
Banana is cultivated during kharif season (Feb/Mar) as rainfed (mainly local varieties)
and during Rabi season as irrigated. Mainly Nendran variety is grown and its harvest
coincides with Onam festival. A total area of 50871 ha is under banana cultivation in
Kerala. It is also extensively grown in Coimbatore in Tamil Nadu.

Weather sensitive farm operation
Planting; use of fertilizer application; crop protection measures, harvesting

Weather sensitive crop growth stages
Crop Crop
growth
stage
Standard
Met. Week *
No.
of
days
Important
weather
parameter
related to
respective
crop growth
stage
Effect of weather parameter
Vegetative
stage
10 19
th
week
(March 5
May 13)
70




Failure of pre-
monsoon
showers
Planting of rainfed banana will be done
with the available soil moisture. Failure of
pre-monsoon showers will largely affect
sucker establishment and its development.
Thrissur
Kharif
season

Harvesting
stage
23-30
th
week
(June 4 July
29
56 Heavy rainfall
and wind

Heavy rainfall along with wind will
destroy the banana plantation. Continuous
heavy rainfall during this period will lead
to inundation of field and physiological
function will be affected
Planting

46-06
th
Week
(Nov 12-Feb
11)
91


High wind
speed

High wind speed during this stage cause
lodging of plant

Vegetative
stage
40-45
th
week
(Oct 1 - Nov
11)
42


Heavy rainfall


Rainfall during this period will affect the
planting operation

Rabi season

Vegetative
stage
23-30
th
week
(June 4 July
29)
56 Heavy rainfall
and wind
Heavy rainfall along with wind will
destroy the banana plantation. Continuous
heavy rainfall during this period will lead
to inundation of field and physiological
function will be affected.
Banana
Coimbatore
Annual
Flowering
and
fruiting
wind High wind speed damages
the crop heavily

* For Standard Meteorological Week see Annexure-II
87

o Measuring the impact of AAS

Station Crop Impact of AAS
on cost of
cultivation
Impact of AAS
on gross
returns
Impact of
AAS on net
returns
Impact of AAS
on yield
Thrissur
Banana
(Irrigated) Increase by 4.3%
Increase by
4.3%
Increase by
26.4%
Increase by
11.1%
Thrissur
Banana
(Rainfed)
Increase by
13.0%
Increase by
11.6%
Increase by
26.5%
Increase by
10.1%
Coimbatore Banana Increase by 25%
Increase by
9.1%
Increase by
7.7% Increase by 9.3%


o Case Studies



What is the loss/gain
achieved due to the
recommendation
(AAS vs non AAS)
Season Crop Operation Weather
parameter
crucial to
the crop
Date of AAS recommendation in
light of the prevailing weather
for that operation
Whether
AAS
Recomme
ndation
followed In Total
cost of
cultivation
(Rs/ac)
In Net
returns
(Rs/ac)
Thrissur
Kharif
05
Banana Spraying Cloudy
weather,
high
relative
humidity
and low
temperature
June 7, July 12, 19, August 2, 9
& 18, 2005
Recommendation:
Against Sigatoka leaf disease
in banana, spray 1% Bordeaux
mixture or Tilt (25 EC) after
cutting the severely affected
leaves and burning it.
43 per
cent of
farmers
were
followed
5872 4136
Thrissur
Rabi 05-
06
Banana Spraying Population
build up
starts from
March and
peak during
rainy season
March 28, May 9 and June13,
2005. Recommendation:
Pseudo stem weevil attack has
noticed in Nendran banana. To
control this, affected plants
may be sprayed with Carbaryl
50 WP
53 per
cent of
farmers
were
followed
-4457 13224
Thrissur
Rabi 05-
06
Banana Strengthe
ning of
propping
and
drainage
Heavy
rainfall and
wind speed
June 20 & 27, 2006
Recommendation:
Light to moderate rainfall is
being expected in and around
Thrissur district.
Heavy
rainfall
occurred
-11142/- loss in cost
of cultivation
Due to this extreme
rainfall event there
was 12 per cent yield
loss & and 20.3 %
loss in net return
88
o Overall analysis of the results obtained in terms of use of weather based AAS
Station: Thrissur


Station: Coimbatore





Input Amount of Input
used (kg/acre)
Difference in yield due
to the input (Q/acre)
Difference in the cost of
Cultivation (Rs/acre)
AAS Non-
AAS
AAS Non
AAS
Diff AAS Non-
AAS
Diff
Banana (Irrigated) Rabi season
Seed
995 1007
Fertilizer 3469 3422
FYM 7726 6451
Irrigation 14 15
Herbicide N/A N/A
Pesticide
21 14
121 109 12



62834



60342



1492

Banana (Rainfed) Kharif season
Seed (Suckers) 1000 1000
Fertilizer 2784 1578
FYM 4058 3896
Pesticide
21 18
97 86 11 35632 31532 4100
Amount of input
used
Difference in yield due
to input (Q/acre)
Difference in cost of
cultivation (Rs/acre)
Input
AAS Non AAS AAS Non AAS Diff AAS Non AAS Diff
Banana Suckers Seed
(no:) 1252 1234
Fertilizer (kg/acre)
1326 1068
Pesticide (lit/acre) 1 1
Human labour
(manays/acre) 54 53
Machine labour
(hrs/acre) 3.2 3.8
Irrigation (no/acre) 7 9
212 196 17 9466 7660 1806
89
Coconut

o AAS units undertaking study on Coconut
Thrissur Season: Kharif

o General Information of the crop
The State of Kerala ranks first in coconut area (49.6%) and production (44.7%) in
our country. The name Kerala is derived from its association with the coconut palm
called Kera viriksha in Sanskrit and coconut oil is major oil for culinary purpose. In
Kerala, coconut is mostly cultivated as rainfed, in an area of 905718 ha and average
productivity is 6049 nuts/ha. Kozhikode district stands first in area under coconut
(130100 ha) and Thrissur district accounts 9.4 per cent area (85480 ha).

o Weather sensitive farm operation
Sowing; Fertilizer application; Weeding; Irrigation; Picking; Plant protection

o Weather sensitive crop growth stages
* For Standard Meteorological Week see Annexure-II

o Measuring the impact of AAS
Station Crop Impact of AAS
on cost of
cultivation
Impact of
AAS on gross
returns
Impact of AAS
on net returns
Impact of AAS
on yield
Thrissur Coconut
Increase by
14.2%
Increase by
13.1%
Increase by
30.6%
Increase by
11.1%

Crop Plant Growth stage Standard Met.
Week*
Weather
Parameter and
its range
Effect on Plant
Various stages
(Spath initiation
and elongation
spadix
emergence,
female flower
production and
button
shedding)
48-19
th
week of
next year
(November 28
May 13)



Prolonged dry
spell and failure
of pre-monsoon
showers


Moisture stress leads to
stunted growth, drooping
of leaves, button
shedding, immature nut
fall and decrease in nut
size and yield
Coconut Thrissur
Various stage
(Spath initiation
and elongation
spadix
emergence,
female flower
production,
Button
shedding)
23-38
th
week
(June 4
September 23)
High relative
humidity and
low air
temperature
Heavy rainfall leads to
water logging, low
nutrient uptake and
coconut leaves showing
yellowing in sand and
sandy loam soil. High
relative humidity and
low air temperature
congenial for bud rot
disease
90
o Case Studies


o Overall analysis of the results obtained in terms of use of weather based AAS

Station: Thrissur


What is the
loss/gain achieved
due to the
recommendation
(AAS vs non AAS)
Season Crop Operat
ion
Weather
parameter
crucial to
the crop
Date of AAS
recommendatio
n in light of the
prevailing
weather for
that operation
Whether
AAS
Recommen
dation
followed
In Total
cost of
cultivation
(Rs/acre)
In Net
returns
(Rs/acre)
Rabi
2003-04
Coconut
Husk
burial
and
mulch-
ing
Prolonged
dry spell
(No rains
and high
temperature
(39.4C)
September 30,
2003
Recommendatio
n: It is ideal time
for husk burial
and mulching for
moisture
conservation/rete
ntion. Mulching
may also be
done with
green/dry leaves,
which add
organic matter to
the soil and
reduces the soil
temperature.
39 per cent
of farmers
followed
husk burial
and 61 per
cent of
farmers
followed
mulching - 2734 1924
Input Amount of Input
used (kg/acre)
Difference in yield due
to the input (nuts/acre)
Difference in the cost of
cultivation (Rs/acre)
AAS Non-AAS AAS Non-
AAS
Diffe
rence
AAS Non-
AAS
Difference
Fertilizer
431 324
FYM
906 956
Irrigation
10 12.8
Pesticide
0.8 0.5
5098 4521 577



9381





8216



1165
91
Peach & Apricot

o AAS units undertaking study on Peach & Apricot
Solan Season: Kharif
Solan Season: Kharif

o General Information of the crop
It is well distributed through out the area. July alberta is high yield variety of
peach. It is mainly used for canning and processing purposes by the national and
international fruits processing units . Main bearing stage/ commercial stage starts from ( 6
to 20 years ). Rajgarh belt is famous for the production of July Albrata peach in India, its
high market value is due to good size and attractive color. Both Peach and Apricot are
highly sensitive to weather anomalies. It requires certain amount of chilling hour for its
metabolic activities to start the reproductive phase. Slight fluctuation in diurnal
temperature during a week will affect the bud break significantly. Dust storm/ hail storm
during March- April, may affect the yield or fruit quality depending on the incidence.
Increase in temperature can effect the ripening stage and also the post harvest
management practices.

o Weather sensitive farm operation and crop growth stages
Stone Fruits:
Apricot/Peach
Standard Met.
Week *
Important weather
parameter related to
respective crop
growth stage
Effect of weather parameter on
Plant
Dormancy Stage
40-6/ 40-6 RF. ,Temp, (min/max )
& Humidity
Positive relationship if favorable
Highly negative / not favorable
Bud Break 7/ 9 Temperature
(Max.Min), RH
morning and evening.
if favorable then 80% bud break if
unfavorable 40-50% only.
Flowering
8-9/ 9-10 Rainfall temperature
(Max.Min) Wind
Speed
80% flowering if favorable
decrease is one of the factor is
unfavorable
Fruit setting 9-10/ 10-12 Temperature Wind
Rainfall
100% if all favorable decrease is
one of the factor is unfavorable
Fruit development 10-17/ 15-18 Temperature Sunshine
hours Weather
anomalies (hills storms
and dust storm etc.)
fruit development depend on the
weather anomalies
Fruit maturity 19-20/ 27-28 Temperature Wind
Speed Sunshine hours
Positive is favorable negative if
one of the factor is unfavorable

* For Standard Meteorological Week see Annexure-II


92

o Measuring the impact of AAS
Station: Solan
Station
Crop Impact of AAS on
cost of cultivation
Impact of AAS
on gross returns
Impact of AAS
on net returns
Impact of AAS
on yield
Solan Peach
Increase by
15.65%
Increase by
57.22%
Increase by
59.86%
Increase by
12.25%
Solan Apricot Increase by 2.18%
Increase by
76.26%
Increase by
82.64%
Increase by
23.65%


o Overall analysis of the results obtained in terms of use of weather based AAS


Amount of input
used
Difference in yield due
to
input (Q/acre)
Difference in cost of
cultivation (Rs/acre)
Input
AAS Non
AAS
AAS Non
AAS
Diff AAS Non AAS Diff
Peach
FYM (kg/acre) 909 1100
Fertilizer
kg/acre) 31 24
Pesticide
(kg/acre) 0 0
Human labour
(mandays/ acre) 26 23
Irrigation
(no:/farmer) 0 0
107 85
22
18790 11973 6817
Apricot
FYM (kg/acre) 602 704
Fertilizer
kg/acre) 17 22
Pesticide
(kg/acre) 0 0
Human labour
(mandays/acre) 14 12
Irrigation
(no:/farmer) 0 0
30 24
6
2805 2745 60
93
6. Survey results on "Willingness to pay for the service"

The credibility and worthiness of a service is realized by its acceptability in totality
and the readiness on the part of the user to pay for the service. The AAS service being
run by NCMRWF has gained in popularity and reliability in the last 10-15 years of its
existence. The AAS farmers are very receptive to the agro advisory being given to them
and have also shown confidence in the weather forecast by accepting the advise free of
cost and implementing the advice. The farmers in the process have also accrued
substantial benefits from the service. So it was pertinent to assess through this survey the
willingness of the farmers to pay for the service.
Therefore the survey also included a specific question about the farmers willingness
to pay. Though the reply to this particular question was neither forthcoming nor
overwhelming yet it definitely helped in analyzing the effectiveness and worthiness of
weather forecast and also the risk taking ability of the sample farmers. Certain situations
under which a farmer is ready to pay are

1. expected weather induced losses
2. risk taking ability of farmer (income & assets)
3. reliability of forecast

Though most of the AAS farmers in majority of the units were still not ready to
pay and were willing to implement the weather based advisories on free of cost basis, yet
there was a small group of farmers in Jaipur, Hyderabad, and Pune who gave their
willingness to pay for the service. This small group of farmers possess medium to large
land holdings. They generally cultivate cash crops and are ready to pay for the service if
the price is nominal and service is specific to their needs. The small land holding farmers
are unwilling to pay as they are generally poor and take huge loans against their holding
and so do not have the risk taking ability. Although the farmers have gained confidence
in the reliability of weather forecast, they still depend on their traditional methods of
farming and rely more on superstitions rather than science.

7. Summary

For the last 15 years, NCMRWF has been providing forecast of different weather
elements like maximum temperature, minimum temperature, cloud cover, rainfall, wind
speed and wind direction twice a week (Tuesday and Friday) valid for subsequent four
days. Using the Medium Range Weather Forecast, Agromet advisories are prepared and
disseminated to the farmers of the AAS category in selected villages and feed back is
collected to study the impact of advisories issued on various crops.
The project Economic Impact Assessment of AAS of NCMRWF was given to
15 AAS units in different agro-climatic zones of the country to assess the impact of the
Agromet Advisory Services and to study the impact assessment frame work of AAS to
make it more effective and efficient. Two villages each under AAS and Non AAS
categories were selected and agro-advisories were issued based on Medium Range
Weather Forecast provided by NCMRWF. In each village, four crops were chosen (two
each during Kharif and Rabi seasons). Farmer awareness campaigns were organized from
94
time to time to create awareness on application of medium range weather forecast in
minimizing risk in crop loss due to weather. The project is summarized below based on
the detailed analysis of results indicating contributions made towards increasing the state
of knowledge in the subject.

The impact studies have created awareness among the farmers on the utility of
Medium Range Weather Forecast.
The impact study carried out included survey of traditional methods used by the
AAS farmers in carrying out farm management practices. The traditional methods
include observing stars, consulting Panchang, folklores and others for giving the
forecast for wind speed, wind direction, rainfall, temperature, and cloud cover.
Thus local inhabitants of the study area also use traditional ethos and wisdom for
assessing weather forecast. This traditional technology has been developed
through experience gathered over generations.
A detailed analysis has been made about different socio-economic and other
ecological determinants so as to have an idea about the willingness and
capabilities of the farmers to pay for the agro-meteorological forecasts. It was
seen that this depended on the risk taking ability of a farmer. Only those farmers
who are prosperous are ready to take this risk and also pay for the advisory
The study also highlights that majority of the AAS farmers are in the middle aged
group and are atleast matriculate. The adoption level of any technological
innovation depends to a larger extent on the educational level of
adopters/respondents. It has been observed that educated respondents are easy to
be targeted and sensitized about the benefits of new farms techniques based on
agro-met advisory.
The reliability of the forecast in terms of its usability to the adopters was also
seen. It is seen that the forecasts are generally more reliable during Rabi season
when compared to Kharif season. The reliability of rain forecast during Kharif
season needs to be improved.
The impact assessment framework also dealt with estimating the direct impact of
the Agro-Advisory service on cost of cultivation, gross net returns and impact on
yield. Crops selected included cereals, millets, oil seeds, cash crops, fruits and
vegetables. The overall analysis in terms of percentage of increase in yield and
total input cost is given in the Table 7.1 below












95
Table 7.1. Impact of the AAS service during the study period
Category Crop Station Impact of
AAS on cost
of
cultivation
(Rs/acre)
Impact of
AAS on
gross
returns
(Rs/acre)
Impact of
AAS on
net
returns
(Rs/acre)
Impact of
AAS on
yield
(Q/acre)
Paddy

Raipur; Thrissur;
Kalyani; Ludhiana;
Bhubaneshwar;
Hyderabad; Pantnagar
Decrease by
5-12%

Increase by
8-20%
Increase
by 16-20%
Increase
by 8-20%

Cereals
Wheat Raipur; Ludhiana;
Jaipur; Pune; Pantnagar
Decrease by
1-2%
Increase by
8-13%
Increase
by 12-28%
Increase
by 7-30%
Millets Pearlmillet Jodhpur, Jaipur, Pune Increase by 1-
5%
Increase by
4-14%
Increase
by 10-28%
Increase
by 4-25%
Tomato Bhubaneshwar;
Bangalore; Coimbatore;
Hyderabad; Solan
Decrease by
2-5%
Increase by
7-20%
Increase
by 12-30%
Increase
by 13-
23%
Palak Hyderabad Decrease by
9.4%
Increase by
24.6%
Increase
by 25.1
Increase
by 24.4%
Capsicum Solan Increase by
2.2%
Increase by
57.3%
Increase
by 61.3%
Increase
by 20.1%
Onion Pune Increase by
0.9%
Increase by
20.4%
Increase
by 30.1%
Increase
by 30.2%
Vegetables
Potato Anand Decrease by
3.1%
Increase by
10.3%
Increase
by 13.5%
Increase
by 5.4%
Cotton Hisar, Coimbatore,
Hyderabad
Decrease by
4-10%
Increase by
2-3%
Increase
by 6-20%
Increase
by 3-20%
Jute Kalyani Decrease by
24.9%
Increase by
11%
Increase
by 21%
Increase
by 14.1%
Cash Crops
Tobacco Anand Increase by
2.8 %
Increase by
11.7%
Increase
by 21.5 %
Increase
by 0.9%
Oil Seeds Mustard Hisar; Kalyani; Jodhpur Decrease by
2-10%
Increase by
3-11%
Increase
by 7-20%
Increase
by 2-10%
Gram Raipur, Jaipur Decrease by
3-5%
Increase by
8-14%
Increase
by 11-30%
Increase
by 7-16%
Pulses
Red Gram/
Tur
Bangalore Decrease by
14.1%
Increase by
14.8%
Increase by
32.7%
Increase by
14.8%
Banana Thrissur, Coimbatore Increase by 4-
10%
Increase by
4-13%
Increase
by 25-30%
Increase
by 10-11%
Peach Solan Increase by
10.6%
Increase by
57.2%
Increase
by 59.9%
Increase
by 12.3%
Fruits
Apricot Solan Increase by
2.2%
Increase by
76.3%
Increase
by 82.6%
Increase
by 23.7%

96
The above table attempts to isolate the economic impact of weather based
advisories on different crops cultivated by weather-sensitive users. Indirectly it assesses
what the impacts might have been had the forecasts-cum-advisories not been available.
Though the sampling method was devised to determine the direct and indirect impacts of
weather-related costs and losses for the representative sample of users, there is ample
scope for not catching holistic impacts. Considering the complexity of the situation one
can understand the difficulty in estimating and quantifying the user response.
Nevertheless, survey results as given in the Table 7.1 do provide credible information
about the value of forecast-cum-advisory products.
In quantitative terms, it is seen that the AAS farmers were able to reduce the cost
of cultivation by 2-5% except in the case of fruits where the cost of cultivation has
increased by 5-10%. This shows that the right selection of fertilizers and seeds due to
organization of awareness programmes in the villages and spraying of appropriate
pesticides due to advisory saved the input costs. It is also observed that the yield
increased by almost 10-25% in most of the crops with maximum increase in the fruit
crops. Undertaking timely field operations due to adoption of agro-advisories being
disseminated twice a week helped in improvement in the yields of various crops.
Besides the economic gains incurred by the user community through various
strategies to mitigate the weather induced losses, the project also helped in creating
comprehensive knowledge base on the following aspects:
Prevalent weather and climatic conditions in the study zone
Soil types in the agroclimatic zone
Land topography in the area
Socio-economic status of
o farmers
o farm labourers
Crop yield in relation to national average and their growth potential
Shifting of cultivation from traditional to modern methods of agriculture

8. Other accomplishments of the study

The Agricultural Advisory Services (AAS) program of NCMRWF is an
innovative inter- departmental extension service, with a goal to deliver weather wise
management of agriculture. Although an initial evaluation of AAS has been quite
favourable, these evaluations have been quantitative in nature and are based on
descriptive analyses of results of structured surveys. Hence more work needs to be
carried out.
Based on observed differences across the AAS and non-AAS farmers, it appears
that the AAS program is having substantial positive impacts on the availability and
quality of advisory services provided to farmers, promoting adoption and use of modern
agricultural production technologies and practices. AAS also appears to have promoted
weather based irrigation management, pest/disease management etc. along with greater
use of post-harvest technologies and commercial marketing of commodities. Despite
positive effects of AAS on adoption of improved production technologies and practices,
marginal differences were found in yield obtained by AAS and non-AAS farmers for
some crops. AAS appears to be having more success in promoting adoption of improved
97
varieties of crops and some other yield enhancing technologies rather than in promoting
improved soil fertility management. Shortage of capital was often cited by farmers as a
critical constraint facing them, in addition to shortage of irrigation water, lack of
adequate farmland, unfavorable weather patterns and problems of pests and diseases.
These highlight that the quality of advisory services is not the only vital factor that
influences technology adoption and productivity and that there is urgent need for
complementary progress in other areas as well. In general the areas in which the study
has gained substantial accomplishments are
The study has helped to
Increase awareness among farmers about the adoption of weather based
advisory.
Further improve the assessment of economic impact Agro advisory services
on farm decision making
Enhance the capacity of the farming community to take weather based farm
management decision related to weather sensitive operations.
Upgrade the existing knowledge of farmers as well as scientists on
identification of
o weather sensitive crops
o weather sensitive stages of different crops
o weather sensitive farm operations
Develop standard methodology for assessing the economic impact of AAS
services

9. Limitations of the study

One of the major limitation that makes the connection between accuracy of
weather forecast and value of such forecast based advice, so difficult to define, is the
cost/loss ratio. That is, if the user of a forecast takes some action in response to the
forecast, that action has a cost. If the user fails to take that action, however, there may be
a loss associated with that failure to act. A simple example is of a user growing crops that
are sensitive to freezing. There are actions that the user can take (e.g., spraying fruit trees
with water) to diminish the threat of freezing weather. These actions have a cost that a
grower would not want to incur needlessly. However, failing to take those actions in a
freeze means some amount of crop loss, creating a proportionate loss of income. Every
user of weather information has a cost/loss ratio and, generally speaking, that ratio differs
for each user. Some users are not knowledgeable about their cost/loss ratio and so are
handicapped in determining whether to take a protective action.
Also in certain situations the costs and losses are very sensitive to weather, but
not very sensitive to the weather forecast as in case of the hailstorm. The hail can cause
tremendous crop losses, but there is very little a farmer can do to save the crops from its
fury. A farmer might not be able to protect the crops, but investing in crop hail nets (or
insurance) is a decision that must be made which is not particularly sensitive to the
accuracy of forecasts but depends on climatology of the hail.
Even when cost/loss is known, however, Murphy and Ehrendorfer (1987) have
noted that it is still difficult to be precise about the relationship between accuracy and
value. They point out that it is typically possible to obtain a single-valued relationship
98
between accuracy and quality only when making a number of simplifying assumptions
about the problem. Of particular importance is the process by which forecast accuracy is
specified; generally, this is not completely determined by single scalar measures of
accuracy.
While the study was designed and conducted in the most impartial way, yet, there is a
possibility that some unexpected but unavoidable bias might have percolated into the
survey. Some of them are listed below. Although these shortfalls/ deficiencies are
obvious and expected in such types of surveys and due efforts are made to avoid these,
yet some of them might have influenced the final results. A few of them are listed below.
Surveyor bias- the sample survey is not independently conducted by the
agency which provided the questionnaire leading to bias.
sampling bias
mutually exclusive set of AAS and non-AAS farmers regarding their
awareness about weather based agro advisories
partial incorrect information collected during survey
Willfully concealing information about the actual benefits accrued by the
farmer
Fictitious information regarding the losses suffered on account of weather, for
want of funds from government.


10. Scope for future work

Acceptance and use of weather information based farm advisories is likely to
occur gradually. Farmers need time to try out new information, experience the benefits,
and accept the results. Technology is changing rapidly whereas the mindset of the
farmers changes slowly. Experiencing accurate information and beneficial outcomes
leads to trust building which certainly will encourage educated farmers to adopt the
advisories.
The following points may be taken into consideration while planning the future studies.
Need to make these impact studies an integral part of the Agro advisory
services of the country.
Need to develop AAS service based decision support system for managing
weather variability in reducing the negative impacts on yield.
Improving package of practices for major crops keeping in view the weather
sensitive crop stages and weather sensitive farm operations for reducing cost
of cultivation and improving yield and increasing net returns.
Need to improve the forecast quality during the sowing operations of kharif
crops.
Studies may be undertaken to quantify the value of medium range weather
forecast in Nitrogen fertilizer management in arable crops. The N fertilizer
advice may be tested through determining the uptake efficiency. The changes
in N leaching, de-nitrification and crop N uptake due to the forecast quality
needs to be assessed. Yield and gross profit changes may then be linked to N
uptake.
99
Need to integrate Medium Range Weather Forecast with extended range
forecast for better planning of the field operations particularly for sowing and
mid-season corrections incase of drought
The impact studies should be replicated in other crops of the region.
Similar studies are also needed in other AAS units in India.
The successful implementation of the scientific agro-meteorological forecasts
need blending with local technologies like traditional methods so that farmers
can readily adopt and be benefited from these scientific forecast.
There is need to deliver district level weather based advisories through an
automated dissemination system.
In addition to the agriculture sector there is need to carry out similar studies in other
weather sensitive sectors of economy as systematic and reliable data on the scope and
dimensions of the relationship of weather and various user sectors is lacking. Better
understanding of use and value of weather forecast may help substantially reduce the
risks to life and property. For example, if there is knowledge about how many people and
how much property is actually at risk to floods, one may be able to develop better
strategies to reduce that undefined risk. In addition to the general lack of knowledge of
the societal context of weather events, there is also limited understanding of how decision
makers could and actually use weather information. The significance of this study seems
to call for a wide range of interests to support the similar efforts on other sectors such as
aviation, power etc. The power firms like the Power Grid Corporation of India (PGCIL)
require location specific quantitative forecast of Maximum/ Minimum Temperatures,
Rainfall, Clouds, Wind Speed/direction four days in advance to run their Load Forecast
models and the Power Distribution models. PGCIL estimates about 5-12 % saving on
power equivalent to Rs 110 crore per month through use of weather forecast of higher
accuracy (>70%)
Therefore to undertake work in such spheres, there is urgent need to form a
cohesive group of meteorologists (forecasters and researchers), users, and representatives
from related fields (economics, policy makers, etc.). Although the entire meteorological
community ought to be concerned with the outcome of that decision-making process, one
should not try to do this in meteorological terms only. Public policy-makers must make
difficult economic decisions that include issues of human safety, as well as purely
economic factors. Decision making in weather sensitive sectors of economy must be
made with knowledge of the economic impacts of weather forecasts, rather than without
that quantitative information.











100




References

Das Gupta, M. and Rizvi, S. R. H. (2001): An Overview of Meteorological Data
Decoding and Pre-processing Operational at NCMRWF, NCMRWF Tech. Rep. No:
NMRF/TR/1/2001, 33pp.
Katz, R.W. and A.H. Murphy, 1997: Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts.
Cambridge University Press, 222 pp,
Kumar A, Parvinder Maini, Rathore,L.S. and S.V.Singh, 2000: An operational medium
range local weather forecasting system developed in India Int. J. Climatol., (a journal of
Royal Meteorological Society), 20: 73-87.
Maini Parvinder, Ashok Kumar, S.V.Singh and L.S.Rathore, 2004: Operational Model
for Forecasting Location Specific Quantitative Precipitation and Probability Of
Precipitation over India. Journal of Hydrol, 288, 170-188.
Maini Parvinder, 2006: Development of Statistical-Dynamical Models for Location
Specific Weather Forecast. (PhD Thesis), Andhra University, 242pp.
Murphy, A. H and M. Ehrendorfer, 1987: On the relationship between the accuracy and
value of forecasts in the cost-loss ratio situation. Wea. Forecasting, 2, 243-251.
NCMRWF/DST, Govt. of India, 1999: Guide for Agrometeorological Advisory Service".
Govt of India Publication, 201pp (Eds: S.V. Singh, L.S.Rathore, H.K.N.Trivedi ),
Published by NCMRWF (DST), Mausam Bhavan, Lodi Road, N.Delhi-110003
NCMRWF/DST, Govt. of India, 2004: Monsoon-2004: Progress, Performance Prediction
and Agro-Meteorological Advisories 197 pp, (Eds: AK Gupta, KK Singh, AK Baxla, JV
Singh, R Singh) Published by NCMRWF (DST), A-50 Institutional Area, Sector-62,
NOIDA,UP,INDIA 201307
NCMRWF/DST, Govt. of India, 2006: Monsoon-2005: Performance of the NCMRWF
Global Assimilation Forecast System," 139 pp, Published by NCMRWF (DST), A-50
Institutional Area, Sector-62, NOIDA,UP,INDIA 201307
NCMRWF/MoES, Govt. of India, 2006: Monsoon-2006: Performance of the NCMRWF
Global Assimilation Forecast System," 115 pp, Published by NCMRWF (MoES), A-50
Institutional Area, Sector-62, NOIDA,UP,INDIA 201307
Nicholls, J.M. 1996: Economic and Social Benefits of Climatological Information and
Services: a Review of Existing Assessments. World Meteorological Organization,
Geneva, Switzerland. WMO/TD-No. 780. 38 pp.
101
Annexure-I
Following are the verification scores that have been used for verifying the rainfall and
temperature forecasts disseminated to the AAS units on a bi-weekly basis

(a) Measures of obtaining skill of Yes/No rainfall

In the following 22 contingency table, if Y stands for occurrence of rain and N stands
for non-occurrence then
Forecast (Rain) Observed (Rain)
Yes No
Yes YY YN
No NY NN

The total number of cases (M) is given by:
M = YY+YN+NY+NN
i. Ratio Score
Ratio Score (RS), also known as the Hit Rate or Percentage Correct, measures the
proportion of correct forecasts. The RS varies from 0 to 100 with 100 indicating perfect
forecasts.

ii. Hanssen and Kuipers Score
Hanssen and Kuipers Score (HKS) (Woodcock, 1976, 1981) is the ratio of economic
saving over climatology due to the forecast to that of a set of perfect forecasts. In HKS
the reference hit rate in the denominator is for random forecasts that are constrained to be
unbiased.


That is, the imagined random reference forecasts in the denominator have a marginal
distribution that is equal to the (sample) climatology (Wilks, 1995).The value of HKS
varies from 1 to +1. If all forecast are wrong (i.e. YY = NN = 0) then it is 1, and if all
forecast are perfect (i.e. YN = NY = 0) then it is +1, and random forecasts receive a score
of 0.
( )
100
+
= =
M
NN YY
forecasts total
forecasts correct
RS
( )
( )
unbiased random
random
,
forecast correct M
forecast correct forecast correct
HKS

=
( )
( )( ) NN YN NY YY
NY YN NN * YY
HKS
+ +

=
*
102
(b) Criteria for obtaining usability of Quantitative Precipitation (QP)

Error Structure for verification of Quantitative Precipitation
Observed rainfall s10mm Observed rainfall > 10mm

Correct Diff 0.2 mm Diff 2% of obs
Usable 0.2 mm< Diff 2.0mm 2% of obs < Diff 20% of obs
Unusable Diff >2.0 mm Diff > 20% of obs

where Diff stands for Absolute difference of observed and forecasted in mm and obs
stands for observed rainfall in mm

(c) Measures of obtaining skill of temperature

Correlation Coefficient (r) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) are calculated for
obtaining the skill of the model in forecasting maximum and minimum temperatures.

(i) Correlation coefficient can be defined as




(ii) Root Mean Square Error (RMSE): The RMSE is the square root of Mean Square Error
(MSE) which measures the degree of correspondence between the forecasts and
observations in terms of the average squared difference between f
i
and o
i
.


Where













( )
( )( )
( ) ( ) | |
2
1
2
2
,

=
o o f f
o o f f
o f r
i i
i i
i i
( )
2
1
2
1
|
|
.
|

\
|
=
i i
o f
n
RMSE
forecast ns observatio of no total n
alue observed mean o
value observed o
value forecast mean f
value forecast f
i
i
/ :




=
=
=
=
=
103
(d) Criteria for obtaining usability of Temperature forecast

Error Structure for verification of Temperature Forecast

Correct Diff 1
0
C
Usable 1
0
C < Diff 2
0
C
Unusable Diff > 2
0
C

where Diff stands for Absolute difference of observed and forecasted temperatures in
0
C


































104
Annexure -II
Standard Meteorological Week Table

Wk.
No.
Month Dates Wk.
No.
Month Dates
1
2
3
4
5

6
7
8
9

10
11
12
13

14
15
16
17
18

19
20
21
22

23
24
25
26
January





February




March




April





May




June
1-7
8-14
15-21
22-28
29-4

5-11
12-18
19-25
26-4*

5-11
12-18
19-25
26-1

2-8
9-15
16-22
23-29
30-6

7-13
14-20
21-27
28-3

4-10
11-17
18-24
25-1
27
28
29
30
31

32
33
34
35

36
37
38
39

40
41
42
43
44

45
46
47
48

49
50
51
52
July





August




September




October





November




December
2-8
9-15
16-22
23-29
30-5

6-12
13-19
20-26
27-2

3-9
10-16
17-23
24-30

1-7
8-14
15-21
22-28
29-4

5-11
12-18
19-25
26-2

3-9
10-16
17-23
24-31


* In the leap year the week no. 9 will be 26 February to 4 March, i.e. 8 days instead
of 7

Last week will have 8 days, 24 to 31 December.