Intro

to Probability Lesson Plan

Title: Intro to Probability Description: Given scenarios, describe the probability of a certain event or set of events will happen. Subject: Probability Instruction time: 45 minutes Students level by grade: Freshman Standard(s) to be addressed: Iowa Core Standards for high school probability. Conditional Probability and the Rules of Probability: 1) Describe events as subsets of a sample space (the set of outcomes) using characteristics (or categories) of the outcomes, or as unions, intersections, or complements of other events ("or," "and," "not"). Using probability to make decisions: 1.) Define a random variable for a quantity of interest by assigning a numerical value to each event in a sample space. Resources used in this lesson (use correct citation): Internet access Class Notes Computer and Projector Learning Objectives that meet the standard(s) above (no more than three objective objectives): 1. Understand the principles of probability and how or and and effect the formulas. 2. Create graphs representing the change a given event will happen. 3. Describe numerically the probability of events occurring. Essential questions for this lesson: What is the difference between or and and? How is and applied algebraically? How is or applied algebraically? What is the sample space? Motivational strategies that you will use: Due to the high level of application of probability to the real world, I will create scenarios based upon events that happen in students every day lives. This will encourage them to become more interested. Type of instructional method(s) used in this lesson: I will lecture followed by questions presented to the students. Afterwards I will help students in groups and individually. Lesson ProceduresList carefully and completely (What will the students do?): 1.) Introduction to probability (5 minutes)

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Show examples of probabilities in dice. i. What is the probability that a 4 is rolled? 1. One four on the dice out of six sides = (1/6) ii. What is the probability that I roll a 3 or a 6? 1. One event or the other means you add, so (2/6) iii. What is the probability that I roll a 2 and then a 5? 1. One event and another event means you multiply, so (1/36) Review how we assigned a numerical value to each event of a sample space. Describe how or and and affect the probability of rolls.

2.) Allow students to describe scenarios that they want to talk about and that interest them (5 minutes). a. Relate probability to their given scenarios. b. Describe the step-by-step process of assigning variables to events and identifying the sample space. c. Write on the tablet the step-by-step process for finding the accurate probabilities. 3.) Give examples of different problems for the class to work on individually or as a group. (5 minutes) Give the following problems to the class i. What is the probability that the spinner stop on an odd number? ii. What is the probability of stopping on a multiple of 3? iii. What is the probability of spinning the same number twice in a row? Walk around the room to interact with students. i. Help students who ask for it. ii. Have some students explain to you the process they took in solving the problem. iii. Informally assess the work of students

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4.) Review the answers for the whole class (5 minutes). a. Assess student progress by having them raise their hand if they got the questions correct. b. Assign students in to one of three groups. Group A for the students who showed proficiency in the questions. Group B for the students who showed potential, but needed some extra help. Group C for the students who struggled with the problems. 5.) Work Time (20 minutes) a. Group A will be working by themselves or with a group on advanced level problems. They will also be asked to create a probability problem on their own. i. What are the odds in favor that a randomly selected student who participated in this survey chose math as his or her favorite subject? ii. Out of the students who chose no preference for the survey, based on the answers given by the other students what is the probability that they prefer science? iii. What is the probability that three randomly chosen people would all prefer the same subject? b. Group B will be working as a group to finish up problems similar in difficulty to those during the lesson. i. Students can teach one another what they thought was the best way to approach the problem.

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ii. These problems will have an answer bank that goes along with the worksheet. If students are doing the problems incorrectly, the answer they get probably will not be in the answer bank, and so the student gets immediate feedback that they have incorrectly done the problem. iii. Students will also be asked to share with me what they learned during group time that helped them improve their skills. Group C will get individual attention from me to help them learn the material again. i. I will re-teach the main points of the lesson while asking for questions from the students. ii. I will give an example of probability using a coin. 1. What is the probability of flipping a heads on one flip? 2. What is the probability of flipping two heads in a row? 3. What is the probability of flipping at least one heads out of three flips? iii. Students will be asked to complete some problems with my help first and then on their own after that. I will start with group C first and then make my way to Group B. i. I will check the work completed by the individuals from Group B to make sure they are on the right track ii. If there are critical errors being made, I will address the problems and teach to the group members that are struggling. iii. I will address any individual questions Group B might have so I can make sure that they are on the right track. iv. For the students that are doing well and have several problems done, I will then encourage them to come up with a problem on their own, just as Group A had been doing already. After I am done working with Group C I will make my way to Group A to check up on how they are doing. i. I will check to see how they progressed on their set of questions. ii. If there are any errors being made, I will be sure to address these issues with these group members. iii. I will check on the probability problems that the group came up with and encourage some students to present to the class. During this whole work period, students are able to come to me with individual questions even if I am not stationed at their group.

6.) Presentation. (5 minutes) a. I will ask for volunteers to present a probability problem that they came up with to the class. b. Students will be asked to solve the problem before the answer is then presented to the class. Technology needed for this lesson to be successful: Tablet computer Projector Internet Connection Adaptations needed to meet student needs: Notes are available online and in print to students who want them. Individual instruction is provided for those students who need it after the lecture is over. Thinking strategies used in this lesson: Students will apply math to real world scenarios that they are familiar with. Students will create probability scenarios on their own. Assignment: Students are given homework problems to accomplish if they wish to. It is completely optional. Assessment of objective:

Students are informally assessed during work time. They are also informally assessed by show of hands if they successfully answered questions presented to the class. At the end of the week, students are formally assessed with a quiz. This quiz is not graded, but is representative of the questions that will be on the test. I will grade the quizzes individually, give feedback, and hand them back to the students to use as a reference to prepare for the unit test.