Decision Making Today Is Complicated and Complex
Decision Making Today Is Complicated and Complex
Introduction:
Managers are mostly involved in studying and analyzing issues that lead to decision making. They are involved in some form of research for making an appropriate decision. Decision making today is complicated and complex. There is a myriad flow of information enabled by data mining and warehousing which provides a vital input for decision making. The success or failure of a business decision depends on the data associated with the decision. The decisions can be made in an objective or subjective manner. Objective decision making is rationale and scientific. To arrive at objective decisions making the business managers often involve themselves in some form of research. Research is simply the process of finding solutions to a problem after a thorough study and analysis of the situational and other related factors. Business research is a systematic and organized effort to investigate a specific problem encountered in the work setting that needs a solution. It comprises of a series of steps designed and executed with the goal of finding answers to the issues that are of concern to the manager.
Definition of research:
Research refers to search for knowledge. It is an art of scientific investigation. 1. Redman and Mory define research as Systematized effort to gain new knowledge. Research is an original contribution to the existing stock of knowledge. 2.D.S. Lesinger and M.Stephenson in the Encyclopedia of Social Sciences, define research as the manipulation of things, concepts or symbols for the purpose of generalizing to extend, correct or verify knowledge, whether that knowledge aids in construction of theory or in the practice of an art. 3. According to Clifford Woody research comprises defining and redefining problems, formulating hypothesis or suggested solutions; collecting, organizing and evaluating data; making deductions and reaching conclusions; and at last carefully testing the conclusions to determine whether they fit the formulated hypothesis. 4. Business research is an organized, systematic, data-based, critical, objective, scientific inquiry or investigation into a specific problem undertaken with the purpose of finding solutions to it. Research provides the needed information that guides managers to make informed decisions to successfully deal with problems.
know about the research so as to evaluate and discriminate the research findings based on the soundness of methodology etc., 7. The knowledge of research and research methods sensitize the mangers to the various variables operating in a situation and remind them of the multi causality and multi finality of the situations and thereby avoiding inappropriate, simplistic notions of one variable causing another. 8. It enables the managers to understand the research reports prepared by professionals so as to take intelligent, calculated risks with known probabilities attached to the success or failure of their decision. 9. Knowledge about the scientific investigation will enable the managers to eliminate or avoid making decisions on subjective or biased manner. 10. Knowledge about research helps the manager to understand the need for and share the pertinent information with the research consultants.
Deduction
Deduction is a process by which the researcher arrives at a reasoned conclusion by logical generalization of a known fact. Deduction leads to conclusions which should be necessarily based on reasons. The reasons are said to imply the conclusions and represent a proof. The bond between the reasons and conclusions is much stronger than in the case of induction. To be correct, a deduction should be both valid and true. True in the sense that the reasons given for the conclusions must agree with the real world. Valid means the conclusion must necessarily be arrived from the reasons. Researchers often use deduction to reason out the implication of various acts and conditions. For example in a survey a researcher may reason as follows: S.Dharmalingam MBA (Ph.D), Lecturer, CCET Karur. 4
Surveying households in urban area is difficult and expensive (Reason 1) The study involves interview with households in urban area (Reason 2) The interview in this survey will be difficult and expensive (Conclusion)
Induction
Induction is a process where certain phenomenon is observed on the basis of which conclusions are arrived at. The conclusions are drawn from one or more facts or pieces of evidence. The conclusions in induction result in hypotheses. Induction leads to establish a general proposition based on observed facts. For example the researcher understands that production processes is the prime feature of factories. It is therefore concluded that factories exist for production purposes. Research is based on both deduction and induction. It helps us to understand, explain and predict business phenomena.
Step: 5 Determine sampling design Step: 6 Determination of method of collection Step: 7 Coding, Editing and Processing of data Step: 8 Testing the hypothesis Step: 9 Analyze and interpretation of data Step: 10 Research report preparation Identify and Defining the Research Problem: A research problem may difficulties---Mr.F.L.Whitney. be defined as those unsolved
Problem clearly defined is half-solved. A problem need not necessarily mean that something is wrong in the current situation which needs to be rectified immediately. It simply indicates an issue for which finding a solution could help to improve an existing situation. Problem can be defined as any situation where a gap exists between the actual and the desired states. Problem statement or problem definition refers to a clear, precise and succinct statement of question or issue that is to be investigated with the goal of finding an answer or solution. Components of research problem The components of research problem are as suggested by R.L.Ackoff in the Design of Social Research is elaborated below; There must be an individual or a group which has some difficulty or the problem There must be some objective(s) to be attained at. There must be alternative means or course of action for obtaining the objectives There must be some doubt in the minds of a researcher with regard to the selection of alternatives.
Criteria for selecting the research problem The following criteria can be kept in the minds of researcher in selecting the research problem. Subjects on which the research is carried on amply should not be normally chosen as there will not be new dimension to reveal Too narrow or too vague problems should be avoided The researcher should be familiar with the subject chosen for research. The researcher should have enough knowledge, qualification and training in the selected problem area. The resources needs to solve the problem in terms of time, money, efforts, manpower requirement should be taken into account before embarking on a problem. The subject of research should be familiar and feasible so that related research material or sources of research can be obtained easily. The selection of a problem must be preceded by a preliminary study. Research problems trigger the research process. Defining the research problem is a critical activity. A thorough understanding of research problem is a must for achieving success in the research endeavor. Defining the research problem begins with identifying the basic dilemma that prompts the research. It can be further developed by progressively breaking down the original dilemma into more specific and focus oriented objectives.
Five steps could be envisaged (1) Identifying the broad problem area(2) Literature review (3) Identifying the research question (4) Refining the research question (5) Developing investigative questions. They are discussed below; Identifying the broad problem area The process begins with specifying the problem at the most general level eg., Declining sales, increased cost, increased employee turnover etc. From this general specification of problem the next step is to move towards the question. problem. For eg., What is the reason for declining sales?. The questions that can be raised can be grouped into three categorizes;(1) Choice of purposes or objectives where the question focuses on what objectives the researcher wishes to achieve by conducting the research (2) Generation and evaluations of solutions where the question focuses on the alternatives available to solve a problem in hand (3) Trouble shooting or control situation where the query focuses on monitoring and diagnosing why an organization is not achieving the established goals. The researcher can identify the problem through the following sources; The question reinstates the general
Identifying the research problem/question The next step is converting the broad problem into a research question. The research question is fact-oriented and requires gathering of information. A research question states the objective of the research study. It is a more specific question that must be answered. It can be more than one question or just only one. Refining the research question The refined research question will have better focus and will enable to conduct research with more clarity than the initially formulated questions. In addition to fine-tuning the original question, other research question related activities should be addressed in this phase to enhance the quality of research work viz., 1. Examine the concepts and constructs used in the study. 2. Review the research question and break them down to second and third level questions. 3. Whether hypotheses are postulated in a proper and standard manner? 4. What is not included in the scope of the research questions? If the research questions are well defined, the sub questions can be easily arrived at. However if the research question is poorly defined the researcher will need further exploration and question revision to refine the original question and generate the material for constructing the investigative questions.
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undertaking the research work. It provides a purpose and direction for the research.
Research Design
RESEARCH DESIGN DEFINITION: According to Bernard S.Philips, The research design constitutes that Blueprint (or) Master plan (or) collection, measurement and analysis of data Components of Research Design: 1. Problem design 6.Data collection design 2. Objective design 7.Analytical design 3. Hypothesis design 8.Interpretation design 4. statistical tool design 9.Report design 5. sampling design TYPES OF RESEARCH DESIGN
|----------------------------|--------------------------------------------| \/ \/ I. Exploratory II. Conclusive Research Design Research Design S.Dharmalingam MBA (Ph.D), Lecturer, CCET Karur. 11
| \/ Methods 2 Experimental 1. Observation RD 2. Interview | 3. Focus group 1.After only 4. Case study 2.Before & 5. Experience survey after only
| Sectional 3.lation square design |-------------------------------------------------- -----------| 4.factorial \/ \/ Studying behaviour of Studying behaviour of the Event/product customer at fixed point of time over a period of time. Ex: SAMPLE SURVEY | \/ |-----------------------------------------------------------| 1.Continous 2.Discontinous Panel Difference in questions from Ask same questions one time to the next. (OMNI BUS SURVEY) CLASSIFICTION OF RESEARCH DESIGN: 1.Exploratory study Exploratory study has loose structures with the objective of discovering further research tasks. An exploratory study is undertaken when the existing knowledge base on the problem selected is very limited or not available. In such cases preliminary research work needs to be done to gain familiarity with the situation. It is undertaken with the idea of comprehending the nature of the problem since very few studies have
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been conducted in that area. The exploratory study is finished when the researcher has achieved the following purpose; Establish the major dimensions of the research task Defined a set of subsidiary investigative questions that can be used a s guideline to a detailed research design Develop hypotheses about possible causes of the problem Learned the boundaries and scope of the proposed research study Decided that additional efforts or further research is not feasible. Exploratory study to a greater extent depends on the
The objectives of exploration may be accomplished with different techniques. qualitative techniques; however quantitative techniques may also be used. Several techniques are available for conducting exploratory investigations; In-depth interviewing Participant observation Films, photographs and videotapes Projective techniques and psychological testing Case studies Street ethnography Document analysis
Combining the approaches listed above four techniques could be derived Secondary data analysis Experience survey Focus groups Two-stage design
2. Descriptive studies
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The research concerned with finding out who, what, where, when or how much is a descriptive study. The descriptive studies are more formalized and have a structure with clearly stated hypotheses or investigative questions. They can serve a variety of objectives viz., Description of phenomena or characteristics Estimates of the proportion of a population that have a certain set of characteristics Discovery of association among different variables. This is commonly called as correlation study The Descriptive studies present data in a meaningful form and thus helps to understand the characteristics of a group in a given situation. It enables to think systematically about the aspects in a given situation. It offers ideas for further research and help to make simple decisions. A descriptive study may be simple or complex and can be done in many settings. A simplest descriptive research can study about the size, form, distribution etc.
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The researcher can manipulate the independent variable and thereby understand the effect on the dependent variable. This will lead to understand the existence and potency of the manipulation. The effect of the extraneous variables can be eliminated by means of effective control which will lead to authentic findings. The experimental design offers convenience and is economical compared to other methods as the scheduling of data collection and control of variables are decided by the researcher himself. The experiment can be replicated with different subject groups and conditions and thereby enables to understand the effect of independent variables across people, situations, conditions and time. The researcher in some situations can use field experiments to reduce the subjects perception of the researcher as intervention or deviations in their everyday lives.
The experimental design suffers from the following limitations; The research is undertaken in artificial settings and hence the subjects may not behave as they do under the normal circumstances. Generalization from non probability sampling can lead to difficulty in extending the findings. Many times the cost overruns arise in the experimental designs Experimental studies are conducted to solve present or future problems. However the past or occurred events cannot be dealt with in the experimental designs. Management research is mostly concerned with people and hence manipulation and control of human elements are subject to ethical considerations
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1. Dependent variable---Sales, Brand loyalty 2. Independent variable---Ad, Pricing, Packaging, 3. Extraneous variable: It is also known as blocking variable. It is an independent variable that are not related to the purpose of the study but may affect the dependent variable is called as Extraneous variable. 4. Confounding variable; It is not possible to make any conclusions with regard to that experiment Types of Experimental Designs: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Before and after without control design. After only with control design. Before - after with control design. Lotion square design. Factorial Design Completely Randomized design. Randomized Block design.
1. Before and after without control design. Steps; (1) In this design, a single test group(or) experiment group is selected. (2) The dependent variable is measured before the introduction of treatment. (3) The treatment is then introduced. (4) The dependent variable is measured again after the treatment has been introduced. Diagram: Test group (i) Level of Phenomenon before treatment (x) (ii) ----treatment introduced -- (iii) Level of Phenomenon(y)
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1. After only with control design: (i) In this design 2 groups are selected. (a) Test (or) Experiment group. (b) Control group. (ii) The treatment is introduced into the test group only. (iii) The dependent variable is then measured in both the areas at the same time.
Test group: Treatment introduced------------ Level of Phenomenon afte treatment (y). Control group:----------------------------Level of effect without treatment (z) Treatment effect = Y Z Ex: HLL CO wants to conduct an experiment on Impact of free sample on sale of toilet soap 3. Before and after with control design: 1. In this design 2 groups are selected. 2. The dependent variable is measured in both the groups for an identified time period before the treatment. 3. The treatment is then introduced into the test group only . 4. But, the dependent variable is measured in both for a identical time period after the introduction of the treatment. 4. Latin square design: This design mainly used in cause =effect relationship situations. (i) If the effect of a single variable is to be studied over different time periods and different geographic region , (ii) a design which takes into account possible combinations is made, (iii) the differences arising on account of either the geographic region (or) the time period are studied. Example: Suppose the Bata company would like to know whether there is a difference in sales accounting on account of differences in 3
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types of display used by 3 similar Bata stores situated at locations in tamilnadu for a period of 3 month. Latin square design would be Month / Location Coimbatore Trichy Karur 1 2 A B C 3 B C A C A B
5.Factorial design: Meaning: In this design, the researcher to test two (or) more variables at the same time. Factorial designs helps to determine the effect of each variable and measure the interacting effect of many variables. There are two kinds of factorial design and they are as follows: 1. Simple factorial ---- Effect of 2 variables 2. Complex factorial--- more than 2 variables Ex: Chennai Silks, Karur wants to study the impacts of price reduction for a product. Besides, there is also three different POP display being carried out in the store at 1. Near the entrance 2. at usual place 3.at the same time steps; 1. Now assume that there are 2 price levels namely Regression price A1 Regression price A2 2. Let there be 3 types of POP namely P1,P1,P3 3. So, there are 3*2=6 combination is possible. 4. COMBINATIONS A1 P1 SALES LEVEL S1 18
A2 A1 A2 A1 A2
P1 P2 P2 P3 P3
S2 S3 S4 S5 S6
RESEARCH WILL ANSWER THE FOLLOWING QUESTIONS; 1. Is the reduced price more effective than regular price? 2. Is the display at the entrance more effective than display at the usual place? Outcome of this Experiment on sales is as follows: 1. Price reduction with display at the entrance 2. Price reduction with display at the usual place 3. No display and regular price applicable 4. Display at the entrance with regular price level. 6. Completely Randomized design: Treatment/experiment are applied to test group only based on random wise It does not consider the extraneous factor It is simple and inexpensive method. Ex: Company wants to know most suitable price for new product, so it is testing high, medium and low in 3 different types store and come to a conclusion is there is any important issue on sales? 7.Randomized Block Design: It consider effect of one of extraneous factor A single extraneous factor is isolated by blocking out its effects Now check what is the impact on sales? Review questions: 1. What is research? Explain the need for the same 2. Explain the process of deduction and Induction with an example 3. Discuss the building blocks of scientific research. 4. What are the steps in Hypothetico-dedcutive research?. Explain them using an example
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5. Describe the research process in detail. 6. Discuss the steps involved in problem identification 7. Why should literature survey be conducted? 8. Discuss the need for theoretical framework and highlight the features of the same 9. What is hypothesis? Discuss the types. 10. Explain the steps involved in formulation and testing the hypothesis 11. Discuss the various methods of testing the hypothesis 12. Explain the meaning and significance of research design 13. What are the basic research design issues? Discuss them in detail. 14. Is single research design suitable for all research studies? If not why? 15. Discuss the exploratory research design in detail. 16. Discuss the different types of research design. Site a situation to which each design is applicable to. A retail grocery chain wants to study the effects of the various levels of advertising effort and price reduction on the sale of specific branded grocery products. What type of experimental design would you recommend? Suggest in detail the design for the study.
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