Ups and Downs
Ups and Downs
Ups and Downs
Ups and downs are the part and parcel of life. We rise to fall and vice versa. Not all days are sunny. The
same analogy applies to the equity markets as well. Presently we are experiencing a bearish market.
But this is not the first time. Before this, several bull and bear phases have taken place. Of course, what
we saw during 2003-08 was an unprecedented bull rally India has ever experienced. But you must
remember the law of gravity. More the force you use to throw, the thing will fall with equal amount of
force. In other words, an unprecedented bull rally will follow an unprecedented bear phase too.
Technically we see a bearish phase after every 8 years of an uptrend. BSE Sensex witnessed them in
1985, 1992, 2000 and then recently in 2008. We found out that from its highs during each bull phase,
Sensex fell down by 55-60%. However it surged by 191% and 703% during the next bull phases from
the lows of the 8 year cycle during 1992- 2000 and 2000-2008. The 2000-08 rallies were one of its kind,
and if we are going to see the same sort of bull phase in the next cycle then will we see Sensex
touching 59,500 by 2016? You never know. But we are certain that the next rally will be unparalleled
too. It may be 34,000 or 59,500.
Rise in next
Year Fall from high boom High Low
1992 54.40% 191% 4467.32 as on April 22, 1992 2036.81 as on April 26, 1993
2000 56.20% 702.80% 5933.56 as on Feb 11, 2000 2600.12 as on Sept 21, 2001
2008 59.20% ? 20873.33 as on Jan 08, 2008 8509.56 as on Oct 27, 2008
Now let us take the stock of our portfolios. Who has lost what? We have carried out a detailed analysis
about the indices including sectoral indices and stocks they are comprised of. We found out that realty
and metal stocks are the biggest losers with 70 and 81% respectively since January 18, 2008. Sensex
and Nifty lost 48% in comparison BSE mid and small cap that lost 64-68%. Sectors that could weather
the storm included FMCG, Health Care and IT with 14-30% losses since January level. In last one
month sectors that have suffered the most were metal, energy and auto. Sectors that could buck the
falling trend included FMCG, IT, bankex and technology in the same period. During previous week,
however the most beaten down stocks recoiled. Sectors that made good come back during the previous
week were realty (9.4% up) and power (5.4% up).
Since January, sector wise stocks that annihilated by over 60% are as follows:
Sensex: JP, Tata Motors, Tata Steel, Rel Infra, Sterlite, DLF, Grasim, RCom, ICICI Bank and Hindaco
Auto: Amtek, Tata Motors, Bharat Forge, Escort, MRF, and Ashok Leyland
Bankex: Yes Bank, ICICI Bank, Karnataka Bank, Kotak Bank and Indusind Bank
CD: BPL, Videocon, Rajesh Exports, Gitanjali Gems and Blue Star
CG: Gammon Infra, Walchandnagar, Elecon, Suzlon, RIIL, Bharat Bijlee, Jyoti Struct, Kalpataru Power,
BEML, Havells, Usha Martin, Alstom Projects, Siemens, Praj, Bharat Elect, ABB and Punj Industries
FMCG: Pantaloon
HC: Wockhardt, Aurobindo, Opto Circuits, Bilcare and Sun Pharma
IT: NIIT, Aptech, Financial Tech, Moser Baer and Tech Mahindra
Metal: Jai Corp, Ispat, Welspun Gujarat, Jindal Steel & Power, JSW Steel, Gujarat NRE, SAIL, NMDC, Nalco
Oil & Gas: Aban, RNRL and Essar Oil
Deepak Tiwari Power: GVK Power, Lanco Infratech, Neyveli, GMR and Torrent Power
Research Analyst PSU: STC, Hind Copper, RCF, Dredging Corp, Central Bank, Bank of Maharashtra, Chennai Petro and
Vijaya Bank
[email protected] Realty: Except Akruti all stocks annihilated by over 72%
Media & Tech: IOL Netcom, Adlabs, Teledata, HFCL, Dish TV, Deccan Chr, NDTV, Balaji Tele, Hexaware, Tanla
Solutions, UTV Software, HT Media and Jagaran Prakashan,
T: + 91 22 4063 3032
% Change Current levels Since January Last one month Last one week
Realty 2342.82 -80.5% -17.6% 9.4%
Metal 5152.33 -70.1% -28.5% -8.4%
Smallcap 3900.1 -67.9% -17.0% -0.7%
CD 2094.87 -64.2% -12.0% -0.5%
Midcap 3355.38 -62.3% -16.3% 0.0%
Power 1777.57 -58.7% -12.6% 5.4%
CG 7635.41 -58.4% -13.2% 0.6%
Oil & Gas 6013.57 -52.3% -22.9% -8.1%
Bankex 5532.15 -51.4% -4.2% 2.7%
PSU 4965.8 -48.6% -14.3% 2.5%
Auto 2661.53 -48.3% -22.7% -3.1%
Nifty 2973 -47.9% -15.4% -2.3%
Sensex 9964.29 -47.6% -12.0% -3.6%
Technology 2085.84 -40.0% -7.9% -6.0%
IT 2670.54 -29.5% -1.1% -7.1%
HC 2937.11 -27.0% -12.2% 2.8%
FMCG 1968.7 -14.5% 1.1% 5.2%
20.0%
%age change
10.0%
0.0%
-10.0%
-20.0%
-30.0%
-40.0%
-50.0%
-60.0%
-70.0%
-90.0%
Auto
Midcap
CD
HC
PSU
IT
CG
Sensex
Nifty
Bankex
FMCG
Metal
Smallcap
Power
Oil & Gas
Realty
Technology
Sensex
%age Change Current levels Since January Last one month Last one week
Jaiprakash Associates Ltd. 87.7 -79.1% -3.6% 7.7%
Tata Motors Ltd. 158.9 -76.8% -47.0% -16.8%
Tata Steel Ltd. 190.1 -75.7% -43.8% -15.6%
Reliance Infrastructure Ltd. 560.9 -73.6% -12.1% 4.8%
Sterlite Industries (India) Ltd. 246.15 -72.1% -15.9% -16.5%
D L F Ltd. 280.9 -72.1% -9.0% 11.0%
Grasim Industries Ltd. 1043.15 -68.8% -33.8% -5.3%
Reliance Communications Ltd. 228.15 -67.5% -24.1% -1.9%
I C I C I Bank Ltd. 431.25 -65.4% -4.9% 0.1%
Hindalco Industries Ltd. 60.45 -64.0% -33.4% -4.8%
Reliance Industries Ltd. 1217.85 -56.5% -26.2% -15.3%
Larsen & Toubro Ltd. 870.95 -55.7% -9.9% -2.4%
Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. 372.25 -48.9% -22.7% -3.1%
Tata Power Co. Ltd. 737.35 -48.6% -8.4% 6.4%
A C C Ltd. 478.7 -44.6% -16.1% -6.4%
State Bank Of India 1249.25 -44.1% -5.5% 0.7%
Ranbaxy Laboratories Ltd. 218.4 -43.5% -21.8% 14.7%
Wipro Ltd. 260.45 -42.8% -7.8% -5.7%
Tata Consultancy Services Ltd. 524.55 -42.0% -4.0% -4.4%
Housing Development Finance Corpn. Ltd. 1700.5 -39.7% -10.0% -10.1%
Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd. 1405.1 -39.0% -4.2% 4.8%
Oil & Natural Gas Corpn. Ltd. 741.6 -38.7% -23.0% 4.3%
N T P C Ltd. 151.2 -36.9% -13.7% 0.0%
H D F C Bank Ltd. 1088.55 -30.9% -1.5% 1.7%
Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. 597.65 -28.9% -13.2% -0.7%
Bharti Airtel Ltd. 650 -25.6% -11.3% -5.5%
Satyam Computer Services Ltd. 277.75 -25.5% 4.9% -7.4%
I T C Ltd. 174.8 -17.8% 5.6% 10.2%
Infosys Technologies Ltd. 1262.5 -13.8% 0.6% -8.4%
Hindustan Unilever Ltd. 249.3 16.4% 4.7% 4.8%
Source: Prowess, Artha Money Research
Bankex
%age Change Current levels Since January Last one month Last one week
Yes Bank Ltd. 82.1 -66.9% -8.6% 5.7%
I C I C I Bank Ltd. 431.25 -65.4% -4.9% 0.1%
Karnataka Bank Ltd. 91.15 -64.3% -14.4% 8.0%
Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd. 411.5 -63.6% -9.3% 11.3%
Indusind Bank Ltd. 44.7 -60.9% -7.5% 5.4%
Allahabad Bank 53.9 -57.1% -9.7% 4.7%
Federal Bank Ltd. 147.3 -56.1% -20.0% 5.3%
I D B I Bank Ltd. 65.1 -56.0% -6.1% 4.7%
Indian Overseas Bank 83.95 -54.0% -1.8% 6.9%
Oriental Bank Of Commerce 148.5 -48.6% -4.9% 13.9%
Axis Bank Ltd. 581 -47.8% -9.7% -3.5%
State Bank Of India 1249.25 -44.1% -5.5% 0.7%
Canara Bank 193.2 -39.2% 16.0% 15.3%
Bank Of Baroda 292.65 -33.1% 3.4% 17.9%
Bank Of India 271.7 -33.1% 0.4% 9.8%
H D F C Bank Ltd. 1088.55 -30.9% -1.5% 1.7%
Union Bank Of India 155.35 -23.1% 7.1% 14.0%
Punjab National Bank 496.3 -22.1% 1.4% 9.7%
Source: Prowess, Artha Money Research
Capital Goods
%age Change Current levels Since January Last one month Last one week
Gammon India Ltd. 84.95 -86.1% -26.8% 7.2%
Walchandnagar Industries Ltd. 113.95 -85.7% -31.4% -8.0%
Elecon Engineering Co. Ltd. 47.25 -83.2% -30.4% 16.7%
Suzlon Energy Ltd. 70.7 -81.4% -37.8% 53.9%
Reliance Industrial Infrastructure Ltd. 428.6 -81.1% -1.9% 2.4%
Bharat Bijlee Ltd. 740.55 -78.4% -13.0% -4.1%
Jyoti Structures Ltd. 63.1 -76.6% -18.8% 6.2%
Lakshmi Machine Works Ltd. 695.45 -76.1% -7.6% 10.1%
Kalpataru Power Transmission Ltd. 419.3 -74.2% -40.3% -7.3%
B E M L Ltd. 418.5 -73.8% -25.3% -5.7%
Havells India Ltd. 170.05 -73.8% -30.4% -6.7%
Usha Martin Ltd. 32.3 -72.7% -33.0% -13.9%
Alstom Projects India Ltd. 258.55 -71.1% -16.0% 5.0%
Siemens Ltd. 295.6 -69.7% -9.8% 3.5%
Praj Industries Ltd. 72.15 -63.8% -18.2% 1.5%
Bharat Electronics Ltd. 662.05 -63.7% -17.5% 4.1%
A B B Ltd. 497.2 -63.5% -28.0% -11.4%
Punj Lloyd Ltd. 199 -60.3% -15.8% 2.3%
S K F India Ltd. 163.35 -59.3% -4.8% -4.6%
Thermax Ltd. 314.75 -57.0% -9.8% -3.9%
Areva T & D India Ltd. 178 -55.9% -24.1% -8.9%
Larsen & Toubro Ltd. 870.95 -55.7% -9.9% -2.4%
Crompton Greaves Ltd. 168.8 -53.2% -19.1% 0.2%
A I A Engineering Ltd. 153.25 -50.0% -27.6% -9.3%
Everest Kanto Cylinder Ltd. 182.3 -43.4% -20.0% -5.4%
Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd. 1405.1 -39.0% -4.2% 4.8%
Source: Prowess, Artha Money Research
Information Technology
%age Change Current levels Since January Last one month Last one week
N I I T Ltd. 28.8 -78.1% -14.9% -15.5%
Aptech Ltd. 87.8 -72.3% -13.3% 0.9%
Financial Technologies (India) Ltd. 684.1 -71.0% -10.4% 9.3%
Moser Baer India Ltd. 77.2 -69.6% -24.7% -1.8%
Tech Mahindra Ltd. 325.2 -64.1% -29.6% -3.4%
Oracle Financial Services Software Ltd. 595.35 -57.0% 5.4% -1.0%
Rolta India Ltd. 165 -52.1% 1.9% -13.5%
Patni Computer Systems Ltd. 139.05 -46.6% -13.1% 0.6%
Wipro Ltd. 260.45 -42.8% -7.8% -5.7%
Tata Consultancy Services Ltd. 524.55 -42.0% -4.0% -4.4%
Mphasis Ltd. 163.7 -40.0% 4.1% 0.4%
H C L Technologies Ltd. 165.35 -37.8% -12.6% -5.2%
Satyam Computer Services Ltd. 277.75 -25.5% 4.9% -7.4%
Infosys Technologies Ltd. 1262.5 -13.8% 0.6% -8.4%
Source: Prowess, Artha Money Research
4500 6000
4000
5000
3500
3000 4000
2500
3000
2000
1500 2000
1000
1000
500
0 0
15-Jul-95
15-Jul-96
15-Jul-97
15-Jul-98
15-Jul-99
15-Jul-00
15-Nov-94
15-Mar-95
15-Nov-95
15-Mar-96
15-Nov-96
15-Mar-97
15-Nov-97
15-Mar-98
15-Nov-98
15-Mar-99
15-Nov-99
15-Mar-00
15-Nov-00
2-Jan-90
2-Apr-90
2-Jul-90
2-Oct-90
2-Jan-91
2-Apr-91
2-Jul-91
2-Oct-91
2-Jan-92
2-Apr-92
2-Jul-92
2-Oct-92
2-Jan-93
2-Apr-93
2-Jul-93
2-Oct-93
2-Jan-94
2-Apr-94
2-Jul-94
2-Oct-94
6000
20000
5000
15000
4000
3000
10000
2000
5000
1000
0 0
1-May-04
1-Sep-04
1-Jan-05
1-May-05
1-Sep-05
1-Jan-06
1-May-06
1-Sep-06
1-Jan-07
1-May-07
1-Sep-07
1-Jan-08
1-May-08
1-Sep-08
31-Dec-03
1-Jan-01
1-May-01
1-Jul-01
1-Sep-01
1-Nov-01
1-Jan-02
1-May-02
1-Jul-02
1-Sep-02
1-Nov-02
1-Jan-03
1-May-03
1-Jul-03
1-Sep-03
1-Nov-03
1-Mar-01
1-Mar-02
1-Mar-03
Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by Arthaeon Financial Services and is meant for sole use by the recipient and not for circulation. This document is not to
be reported or copied or made available to others. It should not be considered to be taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. The information
contained herein is from sources believed to be reliable. We do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Arthaeon Financial
Services and/or its affiliates or employees shall not be liable for loss or damage that may arise from any error in this document. Arthaeon Financial Services may have
from time to time positions or options on, and buy and sell securities referred to herein. We may from time to time solicit from, or perform investment banking, or other
services for, any company mentioned in this document.