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The document discusses the bubonic plague outbreak in Eyam, England, during 1665-1666, highlighting the village's decision to self-isolate to contain the spread. It includes calculations for the recovery rate (α) and the transmission rate (β) using the SIR model, as well as observations from population data showing trends in susceptible and infected individuals. Additionally, it covers a separate first-order differential equation model, identifying equilibrium points and their stability based on a provided graph.

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8 views7 pages

Project File

The document discusses the bubonic plague outbreak in Eyam, England, during 1665-1666, highlighting the village's decision to self-isolate to contain the spread. It includes calculations for the recovery rate (α) and the transmission rate (β) using the SIR model, as well as observations from population data showing trends in susceptible and infected individuals. Additionally, it covers a separate first-order differential equation model, identifying equilibrium points and their stability based on a provided graph.

Uploaded by

mdhasan.join
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Question 1

Plague in Eyam
The Derbyshire village of Eyam, England, suffered an outbreak of bubonic plague in 1665–1666. The source of
that plague was believed to be the Great Plague of London. The village is best known for being the “plague
village” that chose to self-isolate when the plague was discovered there in August 1665 rather than let the
infection spread. Detailed records were preserved. The initial population of Eyam was 350. In mid-May 1666,
nine months after the beginning of the epidemic, there were 253 susceptible and 7 infectives. The data about the
epidemic in the remaining months are given in Table 2.2. The infective period of the bubonic plague is 11 days.

(a) Estimate α
(b) Use the implicit solution of the SIR model to estimate β
(c) Plot S and I alongside the data. Do they fit?

Table 2.2 Number of susceptible and infected individuals during the Great Plague of Eyam

Date 1666 No. susceptible No. infected


Mid-May 254 7
July 3/4 235 14.5
July 19 201 22
August 3/4 153.5 29
August 19 121 21
September 3/4 108 8
September 19 97 8
October 3/4 Unknown Unknown
October 20 83 0
Solution:

(a)
From the given data:

Infective period: 11 days

We know,

For the SIS model, the recovery rate α is approximately the inverse of the infectious
period:

1
Mean time spent in the infectious class = 𝛼

1
α = ≈ 0.0909
11

(b) The SIR model form:

𝐼 ′ (𝑡) = 𝛽𝑆𝐼 − 𝛼𝐼

We rearrange to estimate β:

𝐼′ (𝑡) +𝛼𝐼
β= 𝑆𝐼

From the data:

𝑀𝑖𝑑 − 𝑀𝑎𝑦: 𝑆 = 254, 𝐼 = 7

𝐽𝑢𝑙𝑦3/4: 𝑆 = 235, 𝐼 = 14.5

Assuming uniform time steps (let’s say 50 days between),

Approximate the derivative:

14.5 − 7
𝐼′ ≈ = 0.15
50
Then
0.15 + (0.0909)(7)
𝛽 ≈ (254)(7)
≈ 0.000442

𝑠𝑜, 𝛽 ≈ 0.00044 (𝑢𝑛𝑖𝑡𝑠 𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑠𝑜𝑛 𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑑𝑎𝑦)

(c) Plot of the given date form the table 2.2:

From the plot:

Both susceptible and infected populations show a declining trend over time.

The susceptible population reduces steadily, likely due to people either falling ill or being
removed from the population in some other way (e.g., immunity or death).
Initially, the number of infected individuals rises, but it stabilizes over time, indicating that
fewer individuals were left susceptible to infection as the epidemic progressed.

The disease seems to subside by October, with no infected individuals remaining by the end
of the timeline, suggesting that the outbreak had been contained, either through natural
immunity, quarantine, or a natural end to the epidemic.

Yes, the susceptible and infected curves generally fit each other. The number of infected individuals
increases as susceptible individuals decrease, but the spread slows down as fewer people are
available to infect.
Question 2

Fig 2.10:

A first-order differential equation is given by 𝑥 ′ (𝑡) = 𝑓(𝑥) where 𝑓(𝑥) is defined by Fig 2.10

(a) Determine the equilibrium of the model 𝑥 ′ = 𝑓(𝑥) .

(b) Determine the local stabilities of the equation of the model 𝑥 ′ = 𝑓(𝑥).

(c) Graph the solution of 𝑥(𝑡) the model 𝑥 ′ = 𝑓(𝑥) as a function of time.

(d) What is the limit: lim


𝑡 →∞
𝑥(𝑡)

If 𝑥(0) = 15? What about if 𝑥(0) = 1?

Solution:

(a) From the graph of function f(x), we determine;


𝑥 ′ = 𝑓(𝑥) = 𝑥 (𝑥 − 5)(𝑥 − 8)(𝑥 − 11)

The equilibrium points occurs where the derivative 𝑥 ′ (𝑡) = 𝑓(𝑥) = 0.

Therefore,
𝑓(𝑥) = 0.

𝑥 (𝑥 − 5)(𝑥 − 8)(𝑥 − 11) = 0.

The solution of the equation;


𝑥 = 0, 𝑥 = 5, 𝑥 = 8, 𝑥 = 11
These are this equilibrium points.

(b) From the graph

f(x) = x (x−5) (x−8) (x−11)

For analyzing stability:

Stable equilibrium: if f’(x) < 0, the equilibrium point is stable because the function is
decreasing at that point.
Unstable equilibrium: If f’(x) > 0, the equilibrium point is unstable because the
function is increasing at that point.
Neutral equilibrium: If f’(x) = 0, further analysis is need.

Hence,
𝑓(𝑥) = 𝑥(𝑥 − 5)(𝑥 − 8)(𝑥 − 11)
′ (𝑥)
𝑓 = (𝑥 − 5)(𝑥 − 8)(𝑥 − 11) + 𝑥(𝑥 − 8)(𝑥 − 11) + 𝑥(𝑥 − 5)(𝑥 − 11)
+ 𝑥 (𝑥 − 5)(𝑥 − 8)
Now, we will evaluate 𝑓 ′ (𝑥) at each equilibrium point, x = 0, 5, 8, 11

At x = 0:
𝑓 ′ (0) = − 440, stable equilibrium (since 𝑓 ′ (0) < 0;)

At x = 5:
𝑓 ′ (5) = 90, unstable equilibrium (since 𝑓 ′ (5) > 0;)
At x = 8:
𝑓 ′ (8) = − 72, stable equilibrium (since 𝑓 ′ (8) < 0;)

At x = 11:
𝑓 ′ (11) = 198, unstable equilibrium (since 𝑓 ′ (11) > 0;)

Hence, x = 0 and 8 are stable equilibrium and x = 5 and 11 are unstable equilibrium.

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