ARMA (AutoRegressive Moving Average) and ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated
Moving Average) are time series forecasting models used to analyze and forecast
univariate time series data. They are widely used in finance, economics, and
other fields to analyze and predict trends, patterns, and fluctuations in data over
time.
ARMA models are a combination of two types of models:
AutoRegressive (AR) models are based on the idea that past values of a time
series can be used to predict future values. The model uses a linear combination
of past observations to predict the current observation.
Moving Average (MA) models are based on the idea that the current observation
is a weighted average of past errors or residuals. The model uses a linear
combination of past errors to predict the recent observation.
ARIMA models are an extension of ARMA models, which include the concept of
differencing to handle non-stationary time series data. Non-stationary data is
characterized by a trend or a seasonality, which makes it challenging to model
and forecast.
Differencing is transforming the data by subtracting the previous observation
from the current observation. The differenced data becomes stationary and can
be modeled with ARMA models.