CHAPTER 3:INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY
Introduction
This Chapter will discuss the concepts of permutations, combinations, sample space and events,
probability and its basic properties and applications. It has been organized into one lecture;
lecture five. The chapter will introduce some common interpretations of probability which are
classical, frequency and personal interpretations. Through the chapter it will be assumed that you
have the basic knowledge about sets and combinatorial methods.
Subtopics:
Permutation
Combination
Sample space and events
Basic rules of probability
Interpretations of probability
Conditional probability
Independence of events
Lecture 5: Counting and Probability
Introduction
This Lecture will introduce and discuss the concepts of counting and probability, basic properties
of probability, conditional probability, independent probability, and Bayes rule. In order to make
the concepts more clearly to the learner, some examples and exercises have been provided.
Objectives:
At the end of this lecture you should be able to:
differentiate permutation from combination
calculate the probabilities of various events
find the conditional probability of events
to show whether or not the events are independents
5.1 Combinations, Permutations and Tree Diagrams
Tree Diagrams
It is a systematic, graphic way to list all possible outcomes.
Example: Tossing a coin three times;
Sample space; S HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT ,THH,THT ,TTH ,TTT
These are eight different possible outcomes.
Permutation
A permutation is an ordered arrangement of a group of objects. The number of permutations of r
objects selected from a set of n distinct objects is given by:
n!
pr
(n r )!
n
Where n! n(n 1)(n 2)1
Example 5.1
The Christian fellowship group has 24 members. In how many different ways could they select a
president, vice president, secretary and a treasurer?
Solution
This is a permutation problem.
The number of permutations of r objects selected from a set of n distinct objects is given by:
n!
pr
(n r )!
n
Where n! n(n 1)(n 2)1
24! 24!
p4 255024
(24 4)! 20!
24
There are 255024 ways.
Combinations
A combination is similar to a permutation except that the order in which the objects are selected
does not matter. The number of combinations of r objects selected from a set of n distinct objects
n!
is given by Crn
n r !r!
Example
Suppose we were selecting three objects in a permutation. The following would be six different
results:
A,B,C A,C,B B,A,C B,C,A C,A,B C,B,A
But if this were combination problem all six would only count as one combination (same letter,
different order)
We need to divide the number of permutation by six to find the number of combination. That is
where the comes in.
Example 5.2
The Christian fellowship group wanted to select four of its 24 members to go to the conference.
In how many different ways could this be done?
Solution
This is combination problem, because the order does not matter.
The number of combinations of r objects selected from a set of n distinct objects is given by
n!
Crn
n r !r!
Given: n 24 ; r 4
24! 24!
C424 10626
24 4!4! 20!4!
There are 10626 ways
Example 5.3
From 7 consonants and 5 vowels, how many words can be formed consisting of 4 different
consonants and 3 different vowels? The word need to have meaning.
Solution
The 4 consonants can be selected in C47
The 3 different vowels can be selected in C35
The resulting 7 different letter can be arranged among themselves in 7 P7
Thus the number of words C47C35 7 P7 35.10.5040 1,764,000
Questions
Identify the following problems as combination problem or permutation problem and hence
solve.
1. A softball league has ten teams in it. In how many different ways could the teams finish
first and second?
2. A third-grade class has 25 students in it. In how many different ways could the teacher
pick one student to clean the chalkboard and another student to empty the wastebaskets?
3. Bruce Springsteen has released 16 CDs. In how many different ways could a fan select
three of his CDs to bring on a road trip?
4. A faculty senate has 23 members. In how many ways could they send four of the
senators to a workshop on shared governance?
5. A math instructor has a class with 40 students in it. He suddenly gets hungry in the
middle of class. In how many different ways could he select a student to go get him a
donut, a second student to go get him a breakfast burrito, and a third student to go get him
some coffee?
6. A math instructor has a class with 40 students in it. He suddenly gets hungry in the
middle of class. In how many different ways could he select three students to go get
breakfast for him?
7. In how many different ways could the Today Show select three jurors from a 12- person
jury to interview?
8. Twenty children sign up to test a new medication. In how many different ways could the
doctors select eight of the children to receive the medication?
9. In California’s Super Lotto game, 6 numbers are drawn from 51 possible numbers
(1–51). In how many different ways could 6 numbers be selected from 51?
10. Five cards are drawn from a well-shuffled standard 52-card deck of playing cards.
In how many different ways could this be done?
11. Five cards are drawn from a well-shuffled standard 52-card deck of playing cards.
In how many different ways could five clubs be drawn?
12. A local Beanie Babies club has 20 members. In how many different ways could they elect
a president, a vice president, and a newsletter editor?
13. A pizza parlor has 12 different toppings that you can order for your pizza. In how many
different ways could you choose 3 different toppings for a pizza?
14. A pizza parlor has four types of crust, 12 different toppings, and three different cheese
blends to choose from. In how many different ways could you order a three topping pizza
(one type of crust, three toppings, and one cheese blend)?
15. A local Beanie Babies club has 20 members. In how many different ways could they
elect a president, a vice president, and a three-person newsletter committee?
5.2 Probability, and Basic Rules
Random Experiment
An experiment is any process of observation that has an uncertain outcome. For example tossing
of a coin twice, it is an experiment and it has the outcomes HH, HT, TH, TT.
Sample Spaces
A sample space is a set of all possible outcomes of an experiment. For example the sample space
result in toss a coin twice is given by .
Events
An event is a subset of the sample space, For example the sample space result in tossing a die
once is given by .Suppose represents the even numbers in and
represents the odd numbers in ; then these two events can be defined by
Classical interpretation of Probability
If all of the outcomes in a sample space are equally likely to occur, we denote the probability of
events A occurring by P(A), and define it by
Where n(A)is the number of different ways that A occur and n(S) is the total number of possible
outcomes for the experiment.
Example 5.4
A single six-sided die is rolled. Find the probability that the roll is even and the probability that
the roll is odd.
Solution
Sample space; S = 1,2,3,4,5,6
Let A be the event that the roll is even and B be the event that the roll is odd
Then; A 2,4,6
n( A) 3
n( A) 3
p( A)
n( S ) 6
B 1,3,5; n( B) 3
n( B ) 3 1
p( B)
n( S ) 6 2
1 1
Thus the probability that the roll is even is and the probability that the roll is odd is .
2 2
Basic Rules for Probability
(i)
(ii) If an event is certain to occur, its probability is one.
(iii)If an event is not to occur its probability is zero.
(iv)Special Addition Rule: if events A and B are mutually exclusive, then
(v)Complement Rule:
A does not occur.
Example 5.5
A single fair six-sided die is rolled.
(i)Find the probability that the roll is less than 7
(ii)Find the probability that the roll is 5
(iii)Find the probability that the roll is 7
Solution
Sample Space; S={1,2,3,4,5,6};
(i)Let A be the event that the roll is less than 7. Then A={1,2,3,4,5,6}, n(A)=6
, n(s)=6
(ii)Let B be the event that the roll is 5or higher. Then , n(B)=2
(iii)Let be the event that the roll is 7. Then and hence
Mutually Exclusive
If two events A and B are mutually exclusive, then
That is A and B can not both occur at the same time.
Example 5.6
The probability that Ana student will get an A on history is 0.25, and the probability that she will
get a B is 0.35. Find the probability that Ana gets a B or better on the history exam.
Solution
Let A be the event that Ana gets an A.
Let B be the event that Ana gets a B
Ana can not get an A and a B on the same exam. Thus
P( A B) 0.25 0.35 0.60
Complement of an event A, denoted
Complement Rule
For any event A
For example: The probability that it rains today is 0.8. Find the probability that it does not rain.
Let A be the event that it rains today.
Let ’be the event that it does not rain.
The probability that it does not rain is 0.2.
5.3 Laws of probability
Conditional Probability
Let be the sample space of all possible outcomes of a random experiment. Let and be two
events in sample space . Then the probability of given that has already occurred is called
the conditional probability of given and It is denoted by .
By definition , where .
General Multiplication Rule
The general multiplication rule for calculating the probability that the two events will both occur
can be derived from the definition of the conditional probability by multiplying the denominator
both sides of the equation.
Consider the formula
By multiplying both sides by we obtain the formula
This is called the general multiplication rule for calculating the probability that the two events
will both occur.
Also from , we have
Independent Events
One of the importance concepts in probability theory is the concept of independence. This
concept refers to the case whereby the occurrence of an event may not affected by the occurrence
or non -occurrence of the other event.
Let A and B be the two events in the same sample space S. Then, A and B are said to be
independent if
.
In this case the occurrence or non -occurrence of B may not affect the occurrence of A.
If the events are not independent, then they are said to be dependent.
The Multiplication Rule for N independent Events
If are independent events, then
Suppose we have two events, A and B. Then
Example 5.7
The university that Paul works for is running a father-son dinner for those employees having at
least one son. Each of these employees is invited to attend along with his youngest son. If Paul is
known to have two children, what is the conditional probability that they are both boy given that
he is invited to the dinner? (Assume that all outcomes are equally likely)
Solution
If he has been invited to the dinner, then he has at least one son.
The sample space is given by
Let be the event that both children are boys and
be the event that at least one of the two children is a boy.
Then
, , and
Thus
, , and
Therefore
Law of total probability Let the B, be complementary events and let A denote an
arbitrary event. Then
,
or
.
Bayes’ Law
Let the B, be complementary events and let A denote an arbitrary event. Then
5.4: Interpretations of Probability (Classical probability, empirical probability and
subjective probability)
Empirical Probability
An empirical probability is a form of probability that is based on some event occurring, which is
calculated using collected empirical evidence. It is closely related to the relative frequency in a
given probability distribution. It uses real data on present situations to determine how likely
outcomes will occur in the future.
Example 5.8
30 people were asked about the colours they like and here are the results:
Colour frequency
red 10
blue 15
green 5
If a person is selected at random from the above group of 30, what is the probability that this
person likes the red colour?
Solution
Let event E be "likes the red colour". Hence
Frequency for red colour
P(E)= ________________________________________________
Total frequencies in the above table
= 10 / 30 = 1 / 3
Example 5.9
The table below shows students distribution per grade in a school.
Grade frequency
1 50
2 30
3 40
4 42
5 38
6 50
If a student is selected at random from this school, what is the probability that this student is in
grade 3?
Let event E be "student from grade 3". Hence
Frequency for grade 3
P(E)= _______________________________________
Total frequencies
= 40 / 250 = 0.16
Subjective Probability
A probability derived from an individual's personal judgment about whether a specific outcome
is likely to occur. Subjective probabilities contain no formal calculations and only reflect the
subject's opinions and past experience
Example; estimating the probability that you will be married before the age of 35 years
Exercise: 3
1.A fair coin is tossed twice. Find the probabilities of the following events:
(a) A, getting two heads
(b) B, getting one head and one tail
(c) C, getting at least one head or one tail
(d) D, getting four heads
2. A newspaper boy wants to find out the chances that on any day he will be able to sell more
than 90 copies of The Times of India. From his dairy where he recorded the daily sales of the
last year, he finds out that out of 365 days, on 75 days he had sold 80 copies, on 144 days he
had sold 85 copies, on 62 days he had sold 95 copies and on 84 days he had sold 100 copies
of The Times of India. Find out the required probability for the newspaper boy.
3. Suppose your chance of being offered a certain job is 0.45, your probability of getting
another job is 0.55, and your probability of being offered both jobs is 0.30. What is the
probability that you will be offered at least one of the two jobs?
4. A card is drawn from a well-shuffled pack of playing cards. Find the probability that the card
drawn is either a king or a queen.
5. A consulting firm is bidding for two jobs, one with each of two large multinational
corporations. The company executives estimate that the probability of obtaining the
consulting job with firm A, event A, is 0.45. The executives also feel that if the company
should get the job with firm A, then there is a 0.90 probability that firm B will also give the
company the consulting job. What are the company's chances of getting both jobs?
6. A problem in mathematics is given to five students A, B,C, D and E. Their chances of solving
it are 1/2, 1/3, 1/3, 1/4 and 1/5 respectively. Find the probability that the problem will
(a) not be solved
(b) be solved
7 .(a) Let A and B be events in a probability space. What is implied if we say
(i) A and B exhaust the space?
(ii) A and B are mutually exclusive?
(iii) A and B are independent?
(b) Let and . What is if
(i) A and B are independent?
(ii) A and B are mutually exclusive?
(c) The probability that Joe Student will get an A on the history exam is 0.25, and the probability
that he will get a B is 0.35.
(i)Find the probability that Joe gets a B or better on the history exam.
(ii)Let A be the event that Joe gets an A, and let B be the event that Joe gets a B. Are these events
mutually exclusive? Why?
8. Let denote the event that a weight exceeds 11 grams, let denote the event that a weight is
less than or equal to 15 grams, and let denote the event that a weight is greater than or
equal to 8 grams and less than 12 grams. Describe the following events:
(i) (ii) (iii) (iv)
9.(a)State Baye's rule
(b) An Economist believes that during periods of high economic growth, the Indian Rupee
appreciates with probability 0.70; in periods of moderate economic growth, it appreciates
with probability 0.40; and during periods of low economic growth, the Rupee appreciates
with probability 0.20.During any period of time the probability of high economic growth is
0.30; the probability of moderate economic growth is 0.50 and the probability of low
economic growth is 0.20. Suppose the Rupee value has been appreciating during the present
period. What is the probability that we are experiencing the period of (a) high, (b) moderate,
and (c) low, economic growth?
10. With the help of an example explain the meaning of the following:
(a) Random experiment, and sample space
(b) An event as a subset of sample space
(c) Equally likely events
(d) Mutually exclusive events.
(e) Exhaustive events
(f) Elementary and compound events
Readings: Woodburg, G.(2002), An introduction to statistics (chapter 3)
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/empiricalprobability.asp#ixzz3bEmImi25
http://www.analyzemath.com/statistics/introduction_probability.html
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/subjective_probability.asp#ixzz3bEn6bTKs
http://www.ddegjust.ac.in/studymaterial/mcom/mc-106.pdf
http://people.usm.maine.edu/eltaha/MAt211/mat211v1.pdf
