MAT 349 Spring 2025

Some practice problems for Quizzam #4

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1. Choose the best distribution for each random variable described below, and describe all relevant param-
eters for the distribution. Your choices are: binomial, negative binomial, geometric, hypergeo-
metric, Poisson, normal, uniform, and exponential.

(a) A pond contains 100 fish, of which 30 are carp. An official from the Department of Natural
Resources catches a fish, records whether it is carp or not, and then throws it back. Then she
catches another fish, records whether it is carp or not, and throws it back. She repeats this process
20 times. Let Y be the number of carp caught in those 20 times.
(b) A pond contains 100 fish, of which 30 are carp. An official from the Department of Natural
Resources catches a fish, records whether it is carp or not, and then throws it back. Then she
catches another fish, records whether it is carp or not, and throws it back. She continues this
process repeatedly. Let Y be the number of times she has to catch a fish before she gets a carp.
(c) A pond contains 100 fish, of which 30 are carp. An official from the Department of Natural
Resources catches a fish, records whether it is carp or not, and then throws it back. Then she
catches another fish, records whether it is carp or not, and throws it back. She continues this
process repeatedly. Let Y be the number of times she has to catch a fish before she gets her 5th
carp.
(d) A pond contains 100 fish, of which 30 are carp. An official from the Department of Natural
Resources catches 20 fish in a net. Let Y be the number of carp out of the 20 fish caught in the
net.
(e) A really big lake has way more than 100 fish. When I go fishing in this giant lake, I catch, on
average, 1.5 fish per hour. Let X be the number of fish I catch in the next hour.
(f) When fishing in the same really big lake, let T be the amount of time I have to wait before catching
my first fish.

2. The number of customers coming to the Tibetan gift shop in the timespan of an hour can be modeled
by a Poisson random variable. From experience, the shop owner knows there is a 8% chance he will not
get any customers at all over the course of an hour.

(a) What is the average number of customers per hour?

(b) I plan to observe the gift shop for an hour on my lunch break. Find the probability that I see at
least 2 customers enter the store.

3. According to a Washington Post analysis of baseball box scores since 1871, in 27.3% of baseball innings,
no runs are scored. Assume that the number of runs scored is a Poisson distributed random variable.

(a) What is the average number of runs scored in an inning of baseball?

(b) What is the probability that at least 2 runs are scored in a given inning?
4. I am very good at darts, and when I throw a dart I can hit the bullseye 75% of the time. My 3-year-old
daughter Norah is not so good (yet). When she throws a dart, she has only a 0.5% chance of hitting
the bullseye. Norah and I wake up each morning at 5am to practice throwing darts. We each take 500
throws of the dart. Let X be the number of times I hit the bullseye, and Y be the number of times
Norah hits the bullseye.

(a) What are the (exact) distributions of X and Y ? Give the name as well as any relevant parameters.
(b) Of the two random variables X and Y , which is better approximated by a Poisson distribution?
Why?
(c) Use your answer to part (b) to approximate the probability that Norah hits the bullseye exactly 4
times.

5. Alice and Beatriz are playing Alice’s favorite game. The reason that Alice likes the game so much is
that she is pretty good at it. Each time they play the game, there is a 70% chance that Alice wins, and
a 30% chance that Beatriz wins.

(a) Suppose they play the game 150 times in a row. Let B be the number of times Beatriz wins. What
type of distribution does B have, including all parameters?
(b) What are the mean and variance of B?
(c) Is B well approximated Poisson distribution? Explain why or why not.

6. Dr. Nick is studying two conditions which put patients at risk for heart failure: high cholesterol and
atrial fibrillation. About 43% of Americans have high cholesterol, and about 0.5% suffer from atrial
fibrillation. In a sample of 1000 randomly selected patients, let C be the number of people in the sample
who have high cholesterol, and let A be the number of people who suffer from atrial fibrillation.

(a) What is the exact distribution of C (including all relevant parameters)? What is the exact distri-
bution of A (including all relevant parameters)?
(b) Approximate the probability that nobody in the study suffers from atrial fibrillation.

7. Two players take turns rolling a die. The first to roll a 6 wins the game.

(a) What is the probability that the game ends in 5 total rolls or less?
(b) Suppose each player has already rolled 50 times, and neither has won. Find the probability that
one of the players will win on her next roll.
(c) What is the probability that the first player wins?

8. The time it takes a mechanic to fix a car is exponentially distributed with mean 2 hours, so λ = 1/2.

(a) What is the probability that the repair will require less than 2 hours?
(b) Given that the mechanic has not yet finished after 2 hours, what is the probability that she will
be done within an additional 2 hours.
(c) At 1pm, there are 3 mechanics in the shop. One is working on my car, which I brought into the shop
at 9am. The other two are working on cars that were brought in at 12pm and 1pm, respectively.
Assume that time for all repairs is exponentially distributed with mean 2, and that all repairs are
independent of one another. What is the probability that my car will be done first?
 (d) At 1pm, there are 3 mechanics in the shop. One is working on my car, which I brought into the shop
at 9am. The other two are working on cars that were brought in at 12pm and 1pm, respectively.
What is the probability that none of the cars are done when the shop closes at 5pm?

9. It’s cold and my furnace broke! The time T (in hours) that it takes to repair the furnace is an exponential
random variable with mean 3/2, so the parameter λ = 2/3.

(a) The repairman arrives at 9am. What is the probability that he will be done sometime before noon
(12 o’clock)?
(b) As it turns out, the sink broke as well, and I called a plumber. The plumber arrives at noon, by
which time the furnace repair is still not done. Assume the time it takes to repair the sink is
also an exponential random variable with mean 3/2. What is the probability that the sink is fixed
before the furnace?
(c) Assume as in part (b) that at 12pm the furnace is still being repaired and the sink repair begins.
Assuming the repairs are independent of one another, what is the probability that both repairs
will be done by 3pm?

10. A standard 52 card deck consists of 13 cards from each of 4 suits (hearts, spades, clubs, diamonds). A
hand of poker consists of 5 cards from a standard 52 card deck.

(a) Find the probability that a hand of poker has no hearts, diamonds, or clubs.
(b) Find the probability that a hand of poker has no hearts or diamonds.
(c) Find the probability that a hand of poker has no hearts.

11. The lifetime of a new stove is an exponential random variable with mean 5 years, i.e., if X is the lifetime
of the stove, then X ∼Exp(λ = 1/5).

(a) What is the probability that the stove will last longer than 8 years?
(b) I just learned that my friend Allan bought the same stove 5 years ago! What is the probability
that his stove breaks before mine? Should I bet him a lot of money that mine will last longer?