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46 Advanced Level Statistics & Numerical methods

2.PROBABILITY
Introduction:

Probability is a measure of the expectation that an event will occur or a statement is true.
Probabilities are given a value between 0 (will not occur) and 1 (will occur). The higher the
probability of an event, the more certain we are that the event will occur.

When dealing with experiments that are random and well-defined in a purely theoretical setting (like
tossing a fair coin), probabilities describe the statistical number of outcomes considered divided by the
number of all outcomes (tossing a fair coin twice will yield HH with probability 1/4, because the four
outcomes HH, HT, TH and TT are possible). When it comes to practical application, however, the
word probability does not have a singular direct definition.

The probability of an event A is written as P(A), p(A) or Pr(A). This mathematical definition of
probability can extend to infinite sample spaces, and even uncountable sample spaces, using the
concept of a measure.

The opposite or complement of an event A is the event [not A] (that is, the event of A not
occurring); its probability is given by P(not A) = 1 - P(A). As an example, the chance of not rolling a
six on a six-sided die is 1 – (chance of rolling a six) = 1 – 1/6 = 5/6

If both events A and B occur on a single performance of an experiment, this is called the intersection
or joint probability of A and B, denoted as P(A∩B)

Notes:
Probability is a value that represents the occurrence of an event when compared with the total number
of trials. If P(A) represents the probability of A then P(A) lies in the interval from 0 to 1.
∴ 0 ∠ P(A) ≤ 1
Number of trials for event A
P(A) =
Total number of trials in samples
n (A)
=
n (S)
Where A is an event with S possibilities.
If P(A) = 1, we are absolutely sure that event A will happen.
If P(A) = 0, then event A can never happen.
n( A )
From P(A) =
n(S)

n(A)

n(S)

n(A) is greater or equal to zero.

n(S) is greater or equal to n(A)
Since A is a subset S.
0 ≤ n(A) ≤ n(S) divide by n(S)

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Advanced Level Statistics & Numerical methods 47

0 n (A) n (S)
≤ ≤
n (S) n (S) n (S)
n (A) n (S)
0 ≤ ≤ 1 but =1
n (S) n (S)
0 ≤ P (A) ≤ 1
There are mainly two types of probabilities.
Empirical or experimental probability: It arises out of carrying out experiments practically.
Theoretical probability: Where values for probability are obtained from daily experience.
1
Example: Probability of a head or a tail when a coin is tossed is .
2
COMPLEMENT (EXHAUSTIVE) PROBABILITY
The complement of event A is A or A implying A does not occur.
n (A)
P = (A) = ……………………………………………………… (1)
n (S)
But n(A) + n (A) = n(S)
∴ n (A) = n(S) - n(A) ………………………………………………….(2)
Substitute (ii) into (i)
n (S) − n (A)
P (A) =
n (S)
n (S) n (A)
= -
n (S) n (S)
n (A) n (A)
P (A) = 1- but = P(A)
n (S) n (S)
P (A) = 1 – P(A)
P(A) + P (A) = 1
LAWS OF PROBABILITY
They are mainly classified into two parts.
Additional law
It mainly includes:
Mutually exclusive events.
Non – mutually exclusive events.
Exhaustive events.
(ii) Multiplication law.
Independent events.
Dependent events or conditional probability.
Baye’s theorem.

(i) ADDITIONAL LAW

(a) MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS
They are events that cannot occur at the same time thus has no intersection. If the events are A and B
then P(A ∩ B) = 0
In probability OR is represented by U (union) while AND is represented by ∩ (intersection) also OR
can be represented with + (addition sign) and can be represented with X (multiplication sign)

P(A or B) = P(A + B)
= P(AUB)
= P(A) + P(B)
It can be extended to three events A, B and C
P(A or B or C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) for events A1, A2, A3, ……….., And then
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48 Advanced Level Statistics & Numerical methods

P(A, or A2 or A3 or …… or An) = P(A1) + P(A2) + P(A3) + …….+ P(An)

(b) NON-MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS

They are events that occur at the same time. If the two events are A and B then
P(A ∩ B) ≠ 0 then probability that A occurs plus the probability that B occurs
Subtract probability that both A and B occur P(A or B) = P(AUB)
P(A + B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A ∩ B)
∴ P(AUB) = P(A) +P(B) – P(A ∩ B)

If three events A, B and C are non-mutually exclusive then

P(AUBUC) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) – P(A ∩ B) –P(B ∩ C) – P(C ∩ A) + P(A ∩ B ∩ C)

(c) EXHAUSTIVE EVENTS

They are those events whose probability sum up to one. If A and B are mutually exhaustive, then
P( A or B ) = P(AUB)
= P(A) + P(B)
= 1
∴ P(AUB) = 1 or P(A) + P(B) = 1
If three events A, B and C are exhaustive events then
P(A or B or C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C)
= 1
In general for events A1, A2, A3, ……An , If they are exhaustive events then,
P(A1 or A2 and A3 and …and An) = P(A1 ∩ A 2 ∩ A3 ∩ …… ∩ An)
= P(A1) x P(A2) x2(A3 x ...x P(An)
MULTIPLICATION LAW

CONDITIONAL PROBABILTY (DEPENDENT EVENTS)

If A and B and are two events, where P(A) ≠ 0 and P(B) ≠ 0, then the probability of A, given
that B has already occurred is written as P(A/B) and is probability of A given B.
A and B) = P(B) x P(A givenB)
P(A ∩ B) = P(B) x P(A ∩ B)
P(A ∩ B)
P(A/B) =
P(B)
(b) BAYE’S THEOREM

Suppose someone told you they had a nice conversation with someone on the bus. Not knowing
anything else about this conversation, the probability that they were speaking to a woman is 50%.
Now suppose they also told you that this person had long hair. It is now more likely they were
speaking to a woman, since most long-haired people are women. Bayes' theorem can be used to
calculate the probability that the person is a woman.

To see how this is done, let

W represent the event that the conversation was held with a woman, and
L denote the event that the conversation was held with a long-haired person.

It can be assumed that women constitute half the population for this example. So, not knowing
anything else, the probability that W occurs is

P(W) = 0.5

Suppose it is also known that 75% of women have long hair, which we denote as

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Advanced Level Statistics & Numerical methods 49

P(L/W) = 0.75

(read: the probability of event L given event W is 0.75).

Likewise, suppose it is known that 30% of men have long hair, or

P(L/M) = 0.30 ,

where M is the complementary event of W, i.e., the event that the conversation was held with a man
(assuming that every human is either a man or a woman).

Our goal is to calculate the probability that the conversation was held with a woman, given the fact
that the person had long hair, or, in our notation, P(W/L) . Using the formula for Bayes' theorem, we
have:

P( L / W ) P( W ) P( L / W ) P( W )
P(W/L) = =
P ( L) P( L / W ) P( W ) + P( L / M ) P( M )

where we have used the law of total probability. The numeric answer can be obtained by substituting
the above values into this formula. This yields

P(W/L) ≈ 0.714

i.e., the probability that the conversation was held with a woman, given that the person had long hair,
is about 71%.

Statement and interpretation

Mathematically, Bayes' theorem gives the relationship between the probabilities of A and B, P(A)and
P(B), and the conditional probabilities of A given Band B given A, P(A/B)
and P(B/A)
In its most common form, it is:
P(B / A) P(A)
P(A/B) =
P(B)

The meaning of this statement depends on the interpretation of probability ascribed to the terms

Generally:
If A1, A2 ,An are n non-mutually exclusive and exhaustive events in a same face S. If B is another
event in S then,
P(B / A k )
P(Ak/B) = n

∑
i =1

For k = 1, 2, 3,…,n.

TREE DIAGRAM

Definition of 'Tree Diagram'

A diagram used in strategic decision making, valuation or probability calculations. The diagram starts
at a single node, with branches emanating to additional nodes, which represent mutually exclusive

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decisions or events. In the diagram below, the analysis will begin at the first blank node. A decision or
event will then lead to node A or B. From these secondary nodes, additional decisions or events will
occur leading to the third level of nodes, until a final conclusion is reached.
C

A
A
D

E
How to Use a Probability Tree for Probability Questions

Sometimes, you’ll be faced with a probability question that just doesn’t have a simple solution.
Drawing a probability tree (or a tree diagram) is a way for you to visually see all of the possible
choices, and to avoid making mathematical errors. Below is a step-by-step process of using a decision
tree.

Example “An airplane manufacturer has three factories A B and C which produce 50%, 25%,
and 25%, respectively, of a particular airplane. Seventy percent of the airplanes produced in
factory A are passenger airplanes, 25% of those produced in factory B are passenger airplanes,
and 25% of the airplanes produced in factory C are passenger airplanes. If an airplane
produced by the manufacturer is selected at random, calculate the probability the airplane will
be a passenger plane.”

Step 1:Draw lines to represent the first set of options in the question (in our case, 3 factories). Label
them (our question list A B and C so that is what we’ll use here).

Step 2: Convert the percentages to decimals, and place those on the appropriate branch in the
diagram. For our example, 50% = 0.5, and 25% = 0.25.

A
0.5

0.25
B

0.25
C

Step 3: Draw the next set of branches. In our case, we were told that 70% of factory A’s output was
passenger. Converting to decimals, we have 0.7 P (“P” is just my own shorthand here for “Passenger”)
and 0.3 NP (“NP” = “Not Passenger”).

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Advanced Level Statistics & Numerical methods 51

0.7P
A
0.5 0.3NP

0.25
B

0.25
C

Step 4:Repeat step 3 for as many branches as you are given.

0.7P
A
0.3NP
0.5

0.25P
0.25
B
0.75NP

0.25 0.25P

C
0.75NP

Step 5: Multiply the probabilities of the first branch that produces the desired result together. In our
case, we want to know about the production of passenger places, so we choose the first branch that
leads to P.

0.5 × 0.7
0.7 P
= 0.35
A
0.3NP
0.5

0.25P
0.25
B
0.75NP

0.25 0.25P

C
0.75NP

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52 Advanced Level Statistics & Numerical methods

Step 6: Multiply the remaining branches that produce the desired result. In our example there are
two more branches that can lead to P.
0.7 P 0.5 × 0.7
A = 0.35
0.3NP
0.5

0.25P
0.25 × 0.25
0.25 = 0.0625
B
0.75NP

0.25 0.25P 0.25 × 0.25

= 0.0625
C
0.75NP

Step 6: Add up all of the probabilities you calculated in steps and 6.

In our example, we had:

0.35 + 0.0625 + 0.0625 = 0.475

Note:
It solves problems that are mutually exclusive events and exclusive. The sum of probabilities from the
same point on the tree diagram adds up to one. It solves two cases of problems.
(i) Picking with replacement, here the sample size in the second stage does not change since it is
replaced.
(ii) Picking without replacement, the sample size in the second stage reduces by one since it is not
replaced.

Example 1: Given the P(A) = 0.3, P(B) = 0.4 and P(A ∩ B) = 0.1
Find: (i) P(AUB)
(ii) P(AUB)1
(iii) P(A1UB)
Solution:
(i) It’s a non-mutually excusive event.
P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A ∩ B)
P(AUB) = 0.3 + 0.4 - 0.1
= 0.6
(ii) Are exhaustive events.
P(AUB)1 + P(AUB) = 1
1
P(AUB) = 1 – P(AUB)
= 1 – 0.6
= 0.4
(iii) Intersection = 0.3
P(A1 ∩ B) = 0.3
P(A1UB) = P(A1) + P(B) – P(A1 ∩ B)
= 0.7 + 0.4 – 0.3
= 0.8
2
Example 2: The probability that two events occur together is
15

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3
The probability that either or both events occur is . Find the individual probabilities of the two
5
events.

Solution:
Let the two events be A and B.
P(A ∩ B) = P(A) .P(B)
2
P(A).P(B) =
15
2
P(A) =
15P(B)
P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A ∩ B)
3
∴ P(A) + P(B) – P(A ∩ B) =
5
2
P(A∩B) =
15
3 2
P(A) + P(B) = +
5 15
11
=
15
Substitute (i) into (ii)
2 11
+ P(B) =
15P(B) 15
2
2 + 15P(B) = 11P(B)
15P(B)2 - 11P(B) + 2 = 0
2 1
P(B) = or
5 3
2
When P`(B) = ;
5
2 5
P(A) = .
15 2
5
=
15
1
=
3
1
When P(B) = ;
3
2 3
P(A) = .
15 1
2
=
5
Example 3: A die is tossed three times, what is the probability of getting.
exactly one 2
At least one 2.
Solution:
P (exactly one 2) = P(2). P(2).P(2) + P (2) . P(2) .P (2) + P (2) . P (2) .P(.2)
1 5
But, P(2) = , P (2) =
6 6

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1 5 5 5 1 5 5 5 1
P(exactly one 2 ) = x x + x x + x x
6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
= 0.3472

(b)P(At least one 2 ) = 1 – P(no six )

= 1 - P (2) , P (2) ,P (2)
5 5 5
= 1- x x
6 6 6
75
= 1-
216
91
=
216
1 1
Example 4: If the two events A and B such that P(A) = , P(B) -
3 2
P(A ∩ B)
and P(A/B) = . Find
P(B)
(a) P(A ∩ B)
(b) P(A ∪ B)
(c) P (B / A)
Solution:
(i) P(A ∩ B) = P(B).P(A/B)
1 1
= x
2 4
1
=
8
(ii) P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A ∩ B)
1 1 1
= + -
3 2 8
8 + 12 − 3 17
= =
24 24
P(B ∩ A)
(iii) P ( B / A) =
P(A)
()
PA + P(A) = 1
PA() = 1 – P(A)
1 2
= 1- =
3 3
P(AUB) + P(AUB)1 = 1
P(AUB)1 = 1 – P(AUB)
17 7
= 1- =
24 24
3
But, P (B ∩ A) =
8
3
P (B / A) = 8
2
3
3 3 9
= x =
8 2 16

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Example 5:
Given that Aand B are two events such that P(A) = 0.5, P(B) = 0.7 and
P(A∪B) = 0.8 Find.
(i) P(A∩B)
(ii) P(A ∩ B)

Solution:
We have
P(A) = 0.5 , P(B) = 0.7 and P(A∪B) = 0.8
(i) P(A∩B) = P(A)+P(B) - P(A∪B)
= 0.5 + 0.7 - 0.8
∴ P(A∩B) = 0.4
(ii)P(A∩ B) = P(A) - P(A∩B)
= 0.5 - 0.4
= 0.1
∴ P(A∩ B) = 0.1
Example 6:
A bag contains 3 black and 5 white balls. Two balls are drawn at random one at a time without
replacement.
Find. (i)the probability that the second ball is white.
(ii)the probability that the first ball is white given the second is white.

Solution:
(b)

B W
3 5

Defining events,
B1: a black ball is drawn first
W1: a white ball is drawn first
B2: ablack ball is drawn second,
and W2: a white ball is drawn second
(i) we are interested in the union of the mutually exclusive events ( W1 ∩ W2 ) and ( B1 ∩ W2 )
Note the existence of W2 in the two events above !
So P(W2 ) = P[(W1 ∩ W2 )] ∪ [(B1 ∩ W2 )]
= P( W1 ∩ W2 ) +P ( B1 ∩ W2 )
= P(W1) .P(W2/W1)+P(B1).P(W2/ B1)
5 3
But P(W1) = , P(B1) =
8 8
4 5
P(W2/W1) = and P(W2/ B1) =
7 7
5 4 3 5
Hence P(W2) = x + x
8 7 8 7
35
=
56
( )
∴ P W2 = 0.625 #

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P(W1 ∩ W2 )
P (W1 / W2 ) =
P(W2 )
P(W1 ).P(W2 )W1
∴ P(W1 / W2 ) =
P(W2 )
5 4
.
∴ P(W1 / W2 ) = 8 7 = 0.571
35
56
∴ P(W1 / W2 ) ≈ 0.57

Example 7:
The probability that a student X can solve a certain problem is 2/ 3 and that student y can solve it is ½
. Find the probability that the problem will be solve if both X and Y try to solve it independently.
Solution:
The problem shows two independent events
Defining events
X1 ‘student x can solve the problem’
Y1 : ‘student y can solve the problem’
we are given
2
P(X1) =
5
1
P(Y1) =
2
we are asked P(X 1 ∪ Y )
Now P(X1 ∪ Y1 ) = P(X1 )+P(Y1 )- P( X1 ∩ Y1 )
Now for independent events ,
P( X1 ∩ Y1 ) = P(X1 ) x P(Y1)
∴ P(X1 ∩ Y1 )
2 1 2 1
= + − x
5 2 5 2
∴ P(X1 ∩ Y1 ) = 0.7 #

Example 8 :
The probability that I have to wait at the traffic lights on my way to school is 1 4 .
Find the probability that, on two consecutive mornings, I have to wait on at least one morning.

Solution:
. Let W1 be the event “waiting on traffic lights
on first day”
W2 be the event “waiting on the traffic
lights on 2nd day”
Now , P(W1) = 1/4 , and
P(W2) = 1/4 .
W1 and W2 are independent events.
We are asked to find P(W1 ∪ W2 ) .
∴ P(W1 ∪ W2 ) = P( W1 ) + P(W2 ) − P(W1 ∩ W2 )
1 1 1 1
= + − .
4 4 4 4
1 1
= −
2 16

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Advanced Level Statistics & Numerical methods 57

P(W1 ∪ W2 )
7
∴ = #
16
Example 9.
Two balls are randomly drawn without replacement from a bag containing 10 white and 6 red balls.
Find the probability that the second ball drawn is
(i) red given that the first one was white,
(ii) white

Solution:
Let R1 be the event “a red ball is drawn first’
R2 be the event “a red ball is drawn second’
W1 be the event “a red ball is drawn first’
W2 be the event “a red ball is drawn second’

W R
10 6
1
Now , P(R1) =
16
10
P(W1) =
16
6 2
(i) P (R2/W1) = = #
15 5
(ii) P(W2) = P (W2 ∩ W1) or P (W2 ∩ R1)
= P(W1) ×P(W2/W1)+ P(R1) × P (W2/R1)
10 9 6 10
= × + ×
16 15 16 15
5 3 3 2
= × + ×
8 5 8 3
3 2 5
= × =
8 8 8
5
∴ P (W2) = #
8

Example 10:
Two events A and B a neither nor mutually exclusive. Given that P(B) = 1/3,
P(A ∩ B) = 1/3, find
(i) P(A ∪ B)
(ii) P(A / B)

Solution:
Given that
P(A) = ½ , P(B) = 1/3
1
P(A∩B) = /3
(
(i) P A ∪ B ) = P (A∩B)′
= 1 – P (A∩B)
Now P (A∩ B ) = P (A) – P (A∩B)
⇒ P (A∩B) = P(A) – P A∩ B
= ½ - 1/3 = 1/6
(
Hence P A ∪ B ) = 1- 1/6 = 5/6

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( )
(ii) P ( A / B = P
(A ∩ B)
P(B)
P(A ∪ B) (
P A ∪B )
=
1 − P(B) 1 − P(B)
P(A ∪ B = P(A) + P(B) – P (A∩ B)
= ½ + 1/3 – 1/6
4 2
= /6 = /3

(
Hence P A / B ) = P
A ∩B ( )
P(B)
=
(1 − 2 3 )
(1 − 13 )
1
3
= =½
2
3

∴P A / B( ) = ½ #

Example 11
A bag A contains 2 green and 2 blue balls, while bag B contains 2 green and 3 blue balls. A bag is
selected at random and two balls from it without replacement. Find the probability that the balls
drawn are of different colours

Solution

Let G be the event green picked

Let B be the event Blue is picked
Let A and B be the event bag A and B are chosen
P(A) = ½
P(B) = ½

P(G2/G1∩A)=1/3
P(G1/A) =2/4
7G P(B2/G1∩A) = 2/3
A 2G P(B2/B1∩A)= 1/3
P(B1/A)=2/4
P(G2/B1AA)= 3/4

P(G1/B)= 2/5 P(G2/G1∩B) = 1/4

2G P(B2/G1∩B) = 3/4
B 3G P(B2/B1∩B)

P(B1/B) = 3/5 P(G2/B1AA)= 2/3

P( balls drawn are different colors)= P(G2∩B1∩B)+P(B2∩B1∩B)+P(G2∩B1∩A)

(G2∩B1∩A)+P(B2∩G1∩A)
2 3 1 3 2 1 2 2 1 2 2 1
=  x x + x x + x x + x x 
4 5 2 4 5 2 3 4 2 3 4 2
6 6 4 4
= + + +
40 40 24 24
12 8
= +
40 24

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Advanced Level Statistics & Numerical methods 59

3 1
= +
10 3
19
=
30
Example 12
A truth serum given to a suspect is known to be 90% reliable when a person is guilty and 99% reliable
when innocent . In other words 10% of the guilty are judged innocent by the serum and 1% of the
innocent are judged guilty . If the suspect was selected from a group of suspects of which only 5%
have ever committed a crime, and the serum indicates that he is guilty , what is the probability that he
is innocent ?

Solution:
We define the events :
Let ,
I : event that the suspect is innocent
G : the serum indicates guilt
Then we are asked P(I/G)
P(I ∩ G )
ie P(I/G) =
P(G )
Using Baye’s rule
P(G) = P[(G ∩ I) + (G ∩ I)]
= P ( I) P (G / I) + P ( I) P (G / I)
From the given information
95 1
P(I) = , P(G/I) =
100 100
5 90
P ( I) = , P (G / I) =
100 100
1 95 90 5
So P(G) = × + ×
100 100 100 100
109
=
2000
Also P(I ∩ G ) = P(I)P(G/I)
95 1
= ×
100 100
19
=
2000
19 109
Hence P(I/G) = ÷
2000 2000
19
=
109
∴ P(I/G) = 0.174 . #
x 1
Example 13: A die is loaded so that the chance of throwing 91 is , the chance of a 6 is (1 – x
4 4
1
) and the chance of a 3, 4 0r 5 is . The die is thrown twice.
6
9 x − 9 x 2 + 10
(i)Prove that the chance of throwing a total 7 is
72
(ii)Find the value of X which make this chance a maxium and find this maximum probability.
Solution:

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1 1 1 x
(i) P(6) = (1 – x), P(3) = (4) = P(5) = , P(2) = P(1) =
4 6 4 4

Sum 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 11 12 13 14 15 16
2 21 22 23 24 25 26
3 31 32 33 34 35 36
4 41 42 43 44 45 46
5 51 52 53 54 55 56
6 61 62 63 64 65 66

Chance of sum of 7 = (6, 1) + (5, 2) + (4, 3 ) + (3, 4 ) + (2, 5) + (1. 6)

Since they are independent, substitute the values of each and multiply out.
1 x 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 x 1
= (1 – x) + . + . + . + . + . (1 – x)
4 4 6 4 6 6 6 6 4 6 4 4
1 1 1 1 1 1
= (x – x2) + + + + + (x – x2)
16 24 36 36 24 16
1 1 1
= (x - x2) + +
8 12 18
9x − 9x 2 + 6 + 4
=
72
9 x − 9 x 2 + 10
= hence proved
72
9 x − 9 x 2 + 10
(ii) Let f(x) =
72
9x 9x 2 10
= - +
72 72 72
9 18
f1(x) = - x =0
72 72
18 9
x =
72 72
9 1
x = =
18 2
18
f11(x) = −
72
1
Since its negative value x = is a maximum point.
2
1 1
9
2 − 9
4 + 10
at x = , f  =
2 2 72
49
4
=
72
49
=
288
= 0.1701 is the maximum probability.
Example14.
A bag contains 7 black and 3 white marbles. Three marbles are chosen at random and in
succession, each marble being replaced after it has been taken out of the bag, Draw a tree
diagram to show all the possible selections.
From your diagram, or otherwise, calculate, to 2 significant figures, the probability of choosing:
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Advanced Level Statistics & Numerical methods 61

three black marbles
(b), a white marble, a black marble and a white marble in that order.
(c), two white marbles and a black marble in any order.
(d), at least one black marble.
Solution:

P(B)=0.7

P(W)=0.3
P(B)=0.7
P(B)=0.7
P(B)=0.7 P(W)=0.3 P(W)=0.3
P(B)=0.7
P(B)=0.7
P(W)=0.3
P(W)=0.3
P(W)=0.3 P(B)=0.7

P(W)=0.3

Using the probability tree above ,we have:

(a) P(three black marbles)
P(B1 ∩ B2 ∩ B3) = P(B1).P(B2).P(B3)
7 7 7
= × ×
10 10 10
∴P(B1 ∩ B2 ∩ B3) = 0.343

(b) P(W1 ∩ B2 ∩ W3) = P(W1).P(B2).P(W3)

3 7 3
= × ×
10 10 10
= 0.063
So P(W1 ∩ B2 ∩ W3) = 0.063 #
(c) P(B1 ∩ W1 ∩ W3) + P(W1 ∩ B2 ∩ W3) + P(W1 ∩ W2 ∩ B3) =
7 3 3 3 7 3 3 3 7
× × + × × + × ×
10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
P( C ) = 0.189
(d) P(at least one black marble) = 1 – (all white)
= 1 –P(W1 ∩ W2 ∩ W3)
3 3 3
= 1- × ×
10 10 10
27
= 1-
1000
973
=
1000
= 0.973
Example 15: A bag contains 5 white, 3 red and 2 green counters. 3 counters are drawn
without replacement. What is the probability that there
Is no green counter.
Are 2 white counters and a green counter?

Solution:
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Let W = White, R = red and G = green.

EITHER

W2 = 3/8
R2= 3/8
P(W1)=4/9 G2= 2/8

W2=4/8
P(R1)=3/9
R2= 2/8
G2= 2/8
P(G1)=2/9
W2= 4/8
R2= 3/8
G2= 1/8
P(W)=5/10
W2= 4/8
R2= 2/8
P(W1)=5/9 G2= 2/8

P(R)=3/10 P(R1)=2/9 W2= 5/8

R2= 1/8
G2= 2/8

P(G1)=2/9 W2= 5/8

R2= 2/8
G2= 1/8
P(G)=2/10

W2= 4/8
R2= 3/8
P(W1)=5/9 G2= 1/8

W2= 5/8
P(R1)=3/9
R2= 2/8
G2= 1/8

P(G1)=1/9 W2= 5/8

R2= 3/8
G2= 0/8

5 4 3 5 4 3 5 3 4 5 3 2 3 5
(i)P (no green counter) = x x + x x + x x + x x + x
10 9 8 10 9 8 10 9 8 10 9 8 10 9
4 3 5 2 3 2 5 3 2 1
x + x x + x x + x x
8 10 9 8 10 9 8 10 9 8
180 + 90 + 66
=
720
336
=
720
7
=
15

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Advanced Level Statistics & Numerical methods 63

5 4 2 5 2 4 2 5 4
(ii)P (2 white counters and one green) = x x + x x + x x
10 9 8 10 9 8 10 9 8
40 + 40 + 40
=
720
120
=
720
12
=
72
6
=
36
1
=
6
2 8
OR (i) P(no green counter); P(G) = , P (G ) =
10 10

8 7 6
P (G ) = P (G 2 ) = P (G 3 ) =
10 9 8
P (no green) = P P (G 1 ) . P (G 2 ) . P (G 3 )
8 7 6
= x x
10 9 8
336
=
720
7
=
15
P(2W and G) = P(WWG or WGW or GWW)
5 2
P(W) = , P(G) =
10 10
5 4 2 5 2 4 2 5 4
= x x + x x + x x
10 9 8 10 9 8 10 9 8
120
=
720
12
=
72
1
=
6
Example 16.
(a) A box contains 7 red balls and 6 blue balls. Three balls are selected at random without
replacement. Find the probability that:
(i) they are of the same colour.
(ii) at most two are blue.

(b) Two boxes P and Q contain white and brown cards. P contains 6 white cards and 4 brown
cards. Q contains 2 white cards and three brown cards. A box is selected at random and a card
is selected.
Find the probability that:
(i) a brown card is selected.
(ii) box Q is selected given that the card is white.

Solution
(a) (i) P(All are of same colour) = P(R1 ∩R2 ∩R3) + P(B1 ∩B2 ∩B3)
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7 6 5 6 5 4
= × × + x x
13 12 11 13 12 11
210 120
= +
1716 1716
330
=
1716
= 0.1923
(ii) P (at most two blues) = 1 – P(All are blue)
120
= 1-
1716
1596
=
1716
= 0.9301
(b)
(i) P(a Brown card is selected) = P(P ∩ B) + P(Q ∩ B)
1 4 1 3
= x + x
2 10 2 5
2 3
= x
10 10
5
= = 0.5
10
P (Q ∩ W )
P(Q W ) =
P( W )
P (Q ∩ W )
=
P (Q ∩ W ) + P ( P ∩ W )
1 2
x
= 2 5
1 2 1 6
x + x
2 5 2 10
1
= 5
2 3
+
10 10
1 10
= x
5 5
10
= = 0.4
25
Example 17:
When visiting a friend John may go by road, air or rail. The probabilities of using road, air and
rail are 0.3, 0.8 and 0.6 respectively. The corresponding probabilities of arriving on an agreed
time are 0.2, 0.8 and 0.1 respectively. Find the probability of having used the road given that he
arrived on time.
Solution:
Let R, A, L and T denote Road, Air, Rail and arrival on time.
P(R) = 0.3, P(A) = 0.8, P(L) = 0.6
P(T/R) = 0.2, P(T/A) = 0.8, P(T/L) = 0.1
P(T / R ).P(R )
∴ P(R/T)? =
P(T / R ).P(R ) + P(A) + P(T / L).P(L)
0.3 × 0.2
=
0.3 × 0.2 + 0.8 × 0.8 + 0.6 × 0.1

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Advanced Level Statistics & Numerical methods 65

0.06
=
0.76
6
=
76
3
=
38
= 0.0789
Example 18: An industry manufactures a particular type of light bulb from three departments
A1, A2 and A3, 30% are manufactured by A3. It is found that of those bulbs manufactured, in A1,
1% is faulty, 1% in A2 is faulty and 2% in A3 are faulty. Suppose a bulb is selected and it is
found to be faulty.
(i) Find the probability that it was one of the A3’s bulb.
(ii) Find the probability that it is one of the A1’s bulb.
(iii) Find the probability that it is one of the A2’s bulb.
(iv) Probability that the bulb is normal.

Solution: Let F = Faulty bulb , F1 = Normal bulb

P(A 3 ∩F)
(i) P(A3/F) =
P(F)
P(A 3 ). P(F / A 3 )
=
P(F)
P(F) = . P(A1∩F) + P(A2∩F) + P(A3∩F)
= P(A1).P(F/A1) + P(A2).P(F/A2) + P(A2) .P(F/A3)
= 0.3 x 0.01 + 0.45 x 0.01 + 0.25 x 0.02
= 0.0125
0.25 x 0.02
P(A3/F) =
0.0125
0.005
=
0.0125
= 0.4
P(A 2 ∩F)
(ii)P(A2/F) =
P(F)
P(A 2 ).P(F / A 2 )
=
P(F)
0.45 x 0.01
=
0.0125
0.0045
=
0.0125
45
=
125
= 0.36
P(A 1 ∩F)
(iii) P(A1/F) =
P(F)
P(A 1 ). P(F / A 1 )
=
P(F)
0.3 x 0.01
=
0.0125
0.003
=
0.0125

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66 Advanced Level Statistics & Numerical methods

30
=
125
= 0.25
1
(iv) P(F) + P(F ) = 1 ( They are exhaustive events )
P(F1) = 1 – P(F)
= 1 – 0.0125
P(F1) = 0.9875

Example19.
A good football striker is nursing an injury in his leg. The probability that his team will win the
next match when he is playing is 4/5, otherwise it is 2/3. The probability that he will have
recovered by the time of the match is ¼.
Find the probability that his team will win the match

Solution:
Let W be event that the team wins the match and R be the event that the striker recovers.

Now P W R( ) = 45

P  W  = 23
 R
P (R) = 14

R ∩W

R ∩W

P (W) = P (R ∩ W) + P ( R ∩ W)
= P (R) x P (W  R) + P ( R ) x P (W R )
1 4 3 2
= x + x
4 5 4 3
1 1
= +
5 2
2+5
=
10
7
=
10
7
Hence the probability that his team will win the match is .
10
Example 20.
1
A and B two independent events with A twice as likely to occur as B.If P (A) = , find
2
(i) P(A ∪ B),
(ii) P[(A ∩ B)/A)],

Solution:
⇒ P (A) = 2x

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1
2x =
2
1
x =
4
1
Hence P (B) =
4
(i) P (A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A ∩ B) = P(A) +P(B) - P(A) x P(B)
1 1 1 1
= + - x
2 4 2 4
1 1 1
= + -
2 4 8
5
=
8
P[(A ∩ B) ∩ A]
(ii) P [(A ∩ B)  A] =
P(A )
P(A )× P(B)× P(A )
=
P(A )
= P(A) x P(B)
1 1
= x
2 4
1
=
8
Example21.
At a bus park, 60% of the buses are Isuzu make , 25% are Styer type and the rest are of Tata
make.
Of the Isuzu type , 50 % have radios , while for the Styer and Tata types only 5 % and 1% have
radios, respectively .
If a bus is selected at random from the park , determine the probability that :
(i) it has a radio
(ii) a styer is selected given that it has a radio.
Solution:
Defining the events
Let I be ‘the bus at park is Isuzu'
S be 'the bus at park is Steyer'
T be 'the bus at park is Tata
and R be 'the bus has a radio'.
We are given
60 6 3
P(I) = = =
100 10 5
25 5 1
P(S) = = =
100 20 4
15 3
P(T) = =
100 20
50 1
P(R/T) = =
100 2
5 1
P(R/S) = =
100 20
1
P(R/T) =
100
(i) we find P(R) .
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We need to consider the union of R ∩ I , R ∩ S and R∩ T
i.e. P(R) = P [( R∩ I) ∪ (R ∩ S ) ∪ (R ∩ T)]
= P( R ∩ I) +P(R ∩ S) + P(R ∩ T)
From conditional probability
P( R) = P(R/I) × P( I) + P(R/S) × P(S) + P(R/T) P(T)
∴ P(R) = 0.314 #.
P(S ∩ R )
(ii) P( S/R) =
P(R )
[Using Conditional probability]
R (S) × P(R / S)
P (S/R) =
P(R )
1 1 
 × 
=  4 20 
0.314
= 0.0398
Therefore the probability that a Steyer is selected given that it has a radio is 0.0398 #

Example22.
On certain day, fresh fish from lakes: Kyoga, Victoria, Albert and George were supplied to one
of the central markets of Kampala in the ratios 30%, 40%, 20% and 10% respectively. Each
lake had an estimated ratio of poisoned fish of 2%, 3% and 1% respectively. If a healthy
inspector a fish at random,
i) What is the probability that the fish was poisoned?
ii) Given that the fish was poisoned, what was the probability that it was from Albert?
Solution:
i). Defining the event,
K = event, fish from Lake Kyoga
V = event, fish from Victoria
A = event, fish from Lake Albert
G = event, fish from Lake George
Also P = Fish is poisoned
Given
30 3
P(K) = =
100 10
40 4
P(V) = =
100 10
20 2
P(A) = =
100 10
10 1
P(G) = =
100 10
Also;
2 3
P(P/K) = , P(P/V) =
100 100
3 1
P(P/A) = , P(P/G) =
100 100
We are interested in the union of the mutually exclusive events
P∩K, P∩V, and P∩G
Or P(P) = P(P∩K) or P(P∩V) or P(P∩A) or P(P∩G)
= P(P∩K) + P(P∩V) + P(P∩A) + P(P∩G)
= P(K)xP(P/K) + P(V) x P(P/V) +P(A)xP(P/A) + P(G)xP(P/G)
3 2 4 3 2 3 1 1
= × + × + × + ×
10 100 10 100 10 100 10 100
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6 + 12 + 6 + 1
∴P(P) =
1000
25
=
100
1
=
40
1
The probability that fish was poisoned is #
40
P(A ∩ P)
ii) We have P(A/P) =
P(P)
6 1
= ÷
1000 40
6 40 12
= × =
1000 1 50
6
=
25
6
∴P(A/P) =
25
Example 23.
(a) A and B are intersecting sets as shown in the Venn diagram below.

A B

x y z

0.15

Given that P(A) = 0.6, P (A’/B) = 5/7, and

P (A ∪ B) = 0.85, find
(i)The values of x, y and z
(ii)P (A/B’).
(b) A bag contains 4 white balls and 1 black ball. A second bag contains 1 white ball and 4 black
balls. A ball is drawn at random from the first bag and put into the second bag.
Then a ball is taken from the second bag and put into the first bag. Find the probability that a
white ball will be picked when a ball is selected from the first bag.

Solution:
We are given

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A
B

x y z

0.15

P(A) = 0.6
5
P(A/B) = /7
and P(A∪B) = 0.85
(i) From the Venn – diagram
x + y = P(A) = 0.6
⇒ x + y = 0.6 ……………..(1)
also x + y + z = P (A∪B) = 0.85
x + y + z = 0.85 ….………….(2)
Solving equations (1) and (2)
0.6 + z = 0. 85
z = 0.85 – 060
∴ z = 0.25 #
Also P(A1/B) =
(
P A ∩B 1
) = 5
/7 ……(3)
P(B)
Now P(A1 ∩ B) = z (from the Venn diagram)
And P(B) = y + z
From above
z 5
=
y+z 7
Solving for y
7z = 5y + 5z
5y = 2z
2 2
y = z = × 0.25
5 5
∴ y = 0. 1
From x + y = 0.6
⇒ x = 0.6 – y
= 0.6 – 0.1
= 0.5
Hence ; x = 0.5, y = 0.1 and z = 0.2.5
P(A ∩ B)
(ii) P(A/B) =
P(B)
x
= (from Venn diagram)
x + 0.15
0.50
=
0.50 + 0.15
50 10
= =
65 13
∴ P(A/B) = 10
/13 #
(b)
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Advanced Level Statistics & Numerical methods 71

W B W B

4 1 1 4

Bag 1 Bag 2

Let W1 be a white ball drawn from bag 1

B1 be a black ball drawn from bag 1
W2 be a white ball drawn from bag 2
B2 be a black ball drawn from bag 2
W be a white ball picked from bag 1 after a ball has been drawn from Bag2 and put in bag 1
4
Now P(W1) = /5
1
P(B1) = /5
2
P(W2/W1) = /6
1
P(W2/B1) = /6
4
P(B2/W1) = /6
5
P(B2/B1) = /6
Also
P(W/W1∩W2) = 4
/5
P(W/ W1 ∩B2) = 3
/5
P(W/B1∩W2) = 5
/5
P(W/B1∩ B2) = 4
/5
Also P(W1∩W2) = P(W1)×P(W2/W1)
4 2 8
= /5× /6 = /30
P(W1 ∩ B2) = P(W1)×P(B2/W1)
4
= /5×4/6 = 16
/30
P(B1 ∩ W2) = P(B1)×P(W2/B1)
1
= /5 ×1/6 = 1
/30
P(B1 ∩B2) = P(B1)×P(B2/B1)
1
= /5 × 5/6 = 5
/30
We find P(W)
P(W) = P(W ∩ W1 ∩ W2) + P(W ∩W1 ∩B2) + P (W ∩B1∩W2) + P (W∩B1∩B2)
= P (W/W1∩B2) × P(W1∩W2)+P(W/W1∩B2) × P(W1∩B2) + P(W/B1∩W2)×P(B1∩W2) +
P(W/B1∩B2) ×P(B1∩ B2)
4 8 3 16 5 1 4 5
= x + x + x + x
5 30 5 30 5 30 5 30
32 48 5 20
= + + +
150 150 150 150
105 21 7
P(W) = = =
150 30 10
7
The Probability that a white ball will be picked when a ball is selected from the first bag is #
10
Example24.
(a) Abel, Bob and Charles applied for the same job in a certain company. The probability that
Abel will take the job is 3/4. The probability that Bob will take it is 1/2, while the probability that
Charles won’t take the job is 1/3,
What is the probability that:
(i) None of them will take the job?

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72 Advanced Level Statistics & Numerical methods

(ii)One of them will take the job?
(b)Two events A and B are independent. Given that P( A ∩ B′ ) = ¼ and P( A′/B ) = 1/6, use a
Venn diagram to find the probabilities
(i) P( A)
(ii) P( B)
(iii) P( A ∩ B)
(iv) P( A ∪ B)′

Solution
Let A be the event “Abel will take the job”
Let B be the event “Bob will take the job”
Let C be the event “Charles will take the job”
A, B and C are independent events and we are given.
P(A) = ¾ ⇒ P (A1) = ¼
P(B) = ½ ⇒ P (B1) = ½
P(C) = 1 – P (C1 )
= (1 – 1/3)
2
= /3
(i) P (none of the will take the job)
= P (A ∩B ∩ C)
= P (A) × P (B) × P (C)
= ¼ × ½ × 2/3 = 2/24 #

(ii) P (one of them will take the job)

= P(A∩B∩C ) +P(A∩B∩C)+P(A∩B∩C)
= ¾ ×½×1/3+1/4×½ ×1/3 + ¼ × ½ ×2/3
3
= /24 + 1/24 + 2/24 = 6
/24
∴ P (One of them will take the job) = ¼ #
(b)
A B

1
x
/4 y
Z

Given P (A ∩B ) = ¼
And P (A/B) = 1 /6
Let P (A∩B) = x
P (A∩B) = y
and P ( A∪B)' = Z
P(A ∩ B) 1
Now P (A/B) = =
P(B) 6
y 1
= =
x+y 6
⇒ 6y = x+y
5y = x
Also (PA∩ B) = P (A) × P(B)
⇒ x = (x + ¼ ) × (x + y )
x
But y = /5
⇒ x = (x + ¼ )(x + x/5)
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Advanced Level Statistics & Numerical methods 73

4x − 1 6x
= ×
4 5
20x = 6x (4x + 1)
10 x = 3x (4x + 1)
10x = 12x2 + 3x
2
12x – 7x = 0
x(12x – 7 ) = 0
∴ x = 0 OR x = 7
/12
Now 5y = x = 7/12
y = 7/60
Note : ¼+xy+z = 1
¼ + 7/12 + 7/60 + z = 1
15 + 35 + 7
+z = 1
60
57
+ z = 1
60
57 3 1
z = 1- = =
60 60 20
Using the Venn diagram

A B

1 7
7
4 60
12

1
20

(i) P(A) = ¼ + x
3+7
= ¼ + 7/12 =
12
10 5
= /12 = /6
∴ P (A) = 5
/6 #

(ii) P(B) = x + y
7 7 35 + 7
/12 + /60 =
60
42
=
60
7
= /10
∴ P(B) = 7
/10

(iii) P(A ∩ B) = P (A) × P(B)

5
= /6 × 7/10 = 7
/12 #
(iv) P(A∪ B)1 = z
= 1/20 #

Example 25:
In a survey of newspaper reading habits of members of staff of a university, it

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74 Advanced Level Statistics & Numerical methods

is found that 60% read New Vision (N), 40% read monitor (M) and 30% read the East African
(E)’ . Further 20% read both M and N, 15% read both N and 10% read both M and E. 20%
read New Vision only.
(a) If a member of staff is chosen at random from the university community find the
probabilities:
(i) that the member reads none of the three papers.
(ii) the member is one of those who read at least one of the three papers.
(b) Estimate the number of members of staff who read at least two papers if the total number
is 500.
(c) What is the probability that, given that a member of staff reads at least two newspapers, he
reads all the three.

Solution: N
0.6 M
0.2 - x 0.4
0.2 = 0.15
0.1 + x
x = 0.05 = 0.15 Let y = read none
0.15-x of the
= 0.1 0.1 - x three
= 0.05

0 05 + x = 0 1
Y=01
0.3 E

From the circle of New Vision

0.2 + 0.2 - x + x + 0.15 – x = 0.6
0.55 + x = 0.6
x = 0.05
(i) y + 0.6 + 0.1 + 0.05 + 0.15 = 1
y + 0.9 = 1
y = 0.1
(ii) P(those who read at least one ) = 1 – P(those who read none)
= 1 – 0.1
= 0.9
(b) P(those who read at least two) = 0.05 + 0.15 + 0.05 + 0.1 = 0.35
∴P = 0.35 n = 500
E(n) = np
= 500 x 0.35
= 175 members.
(c) Let T = reads at least two
A = reads all the three
P(T) = 0.35 P(A) = 0.05
P( A ∩ T )
P(A/T) =
P (T )
P(A∩T) = 0.05 , P(T) = 0.35
0.05
P(A/T) =
0.35
5
=
35

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Advanced Level Statistics & Numerical methods 75

1
=
7
= 0.1429
2
Example26. The probability that two independent events occur together is .The probability
15
3
that either or both events occur is .
5
Find the individual probabilities of the two events.

Solution:
Let the two events be A and B
Given
3
P(A ∪ B) =
5
2
P(A ∩ B) =
15
Since A and B are independent
2
P(A ∩ B) = P(A) × P(B) =
15
For clarity in computation, let P( A) = x and P(B) = y
and using
P((A ∪ B) = P ( A) + P(B) - P(A ∩ B)
3 2
⇒ = x + y- (1)
5 15
2
But Also P(A) × P(B) =
15

2
⇒ x× y =
15
2
⇒ y = (2)
15x
Substituting for y in (1)
3 2 2
= x+ − (3)
5 15x 15
9x = 15x2 + 2 – 2x
2
15x – 11x + 2 = 0 (4)
Solving for x in equation (4)
15x2 – 6x – 5x + 2 = 0
3x(5x – 2) – 1(5x – 2) = 0
(5x – 2) (3x – 1) = 0
2 1
Thus x = /5 or x = /3
2 2 1
When x = , y= =
5 15x 3
1 2 2
When x = , y = =
3 15x 5
Hence
2 1
P(A) = and `P(B) =
5 3
1 2
or P(A) = and P(B) =
3 5
i.e. the probabilities are interchangeable

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Example27:
The probability of two independent events P and Q occurring together is 1/8. The probability
that either or both events occur is 5/8. Find:
(i)Prob (P)
(ii)Prob (Q)

Solution:
1
P(A∩B) = /8 (i)
5
P(A∪B) = /8 (ii)
A and B are independent
P (A∩B) = P(A) x P (B)
1
= /8
Now , P (A∪B) = P (A) + P(B) – P(A∩B)
5
/8 = P(A) + P(B) – P(A) .P(B)
= P(A) + P(B) – 1/8
5
P(A) + P(B) = /8 + 1/8 = 6
/8 = 3/4
= ¾ (iii)
Let P(A) = x and P(B) = y
x + y = ¾ (iv)
xy = 1 /8 (v)
3
x( /4 –x) = 1 /8
3
/4x – x2 = 1 /8
2
6x – 8x = 1
8x2 – 6x +1 = 0
8x2 – 4x – 2x + 1 = 0
4x (2x-1) -1(2x-1) = 0
(2x - 1)(4x-1) = 0
x = 1/2 or x = ¼
If x = ½, y = ¼
If x = ¼, y = ½

Example 28:
A survey of 500 students taking one or more courses in algebra, physics and Statistics during
one of the semester revealed the following numbers of students in the indicated subjects.
Algebra 329, Algebra and Physics 83
Physics 186, Algebra and Statistics 217
Statistics 295 ,Physics and Statistics 63
Determine the probability that a student takes:
(a)all 3 subjects
(b)algebra but not statistics
(c)physics but not algebra
(d)statistics but not physics
(e)algebra or statistics but not physics
(f)algebra but not physics or statistics.

Solution:
(a) Let A = Algebra,
B = Physics and
C = Statistics.
n(AUBUC) = n(A) + n(B) + n(C) – n(A∩B) – n(B∩C) - n(C∩A) + n(A∩B∩C)
n(AUBUC) = 500,
n(A) = 329,
n(B) = 186,
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Advanced Level Statistics & Numerical methods 77

n(C) = 295,
n(A∩B) = 83
n(A∩C) = 217
n(B∩C) = 63
500 = 329 + 186 + 295 – 83 – 217 – 63 + n(A∩B∩C)
n(A∩B∩C) = 53
n ( A ∩ B ∩ C)
P(A∩B∩C) =
n (AUBUC)
53
=
500
= 0.106

Algebra
Physics
82
30 93

53
164 10

68
Statistics

n(Algebra but not statistics) = 82 + 30

= 112
112
P(Algebra but not statistics) =
500
= 0.224
n(Physics but not algebra) = 93 + 10 = 103
103
P(Physics but not algebra) = = 0.206
500
n(Statistics but not Physics) = 68 + 164 = 232
232
P(Statistics but not physics) =
500
= 0.464
n(Algebra or statistics but not physics) = 164 + 82 + 68 = 314

n(Algebra but not physics or statistics) = 82

82
P(Algebra but not physics or statistics ) = = 0.164
500

Example29.
Events A and B are such that P(A) = ½ , P(B) = 3/8 and P(A/B) = 7/12.Find the
(i) P(A∩B
(
(ii) P B / A )
Solution:
P(A) = ½ , P (B) = 3/8 P(A/B) = 7/12
(i) P (A∩B) = ?
P(A ∩ B
P(A/B) =
P(B)
P(A∩B) = P(A/B) x P(B)

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7 3 7
= x =
12 8 32
P(B ∩ A)
(ii) P(B/ A ) =
P(A)
P(B) − P(B ∩ A)
=
1 − P(A)
3 / 8 − 7 / 32 (12 − 7) / 32
= =
1 1
1− 2
2
5 2 5
= x =
32 1 16
5
∴ P(B/ A ) = #
16
Example 30:
(a)Aisha’s chances of passing Physics are 0.60, of Chemistry 0.75 and of
Mathematics 0.80
Determine the chances that she passes one subject only.
If it is known that she passes at least two subjects, what is the probability that she failed
chemistry?
(b) Two biased tetrahedrons have each their face numbered 1 to 4. The chances of
Getting any one face showing upper most is inversely proportional to the number on it.
If the two tetrahedrons are thrown and the number on the uppermost face noted,determine the
probability that the faces show the same number.

Solution:
(a) (i) P(Passing only one subject ) = P(Passing math only)
+ P(Passing Chemistry only ) + P (Passing Physics only)
= 0.8 x 0.4 x 0.25 + 0.2 x 0.75 x 0.4 + 0.6 x 0.25 x 0.2
= 0.08 + 0.06 + 0.03
= 0.17
P(Failed Chemistry only)
(ii)P(failed Chemistry / Passed at least two subjects) =
P(Passed at least two subjects
0.25 x 0.6 x 0.8
=
0.8 x 0.75 x 0.6 + 0.2 x 0.75 x 0.6 + 0.4 x 0.6 x 0.75 + 0.25
0.12
= `
0.36 + 0.09 + 0.24 + 0.12
0.12
=
0.81
4
=
7
= 0.1481
1 k
(b) P(x) α P(x) =
x x
k
at x = 1 P(1) = k, at x = 2 P(2) =
2
k k
at x = 3 P(3) = , at x = 4 P(4) =
3 4
k k k
∴ k+ + + = 1
2 3 4
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Advanced Level Statistics & Numerical methods 79

1 1 1 k (12 + 6 + 4 + 3)
k( 1 + + + ) =
2 3 4 12
= 1
25k
∴ = 1
12
12
k =
25

Number of 1 2 3 4
tetrahedrons
Probabilities 12 6 4 3
25 25 25 25

2 2 2 2
 12   6   4  3
∴ P( Same number) =   +   +  +  
 25   25   25   25 
205
=
625
41
=
125
= 0.328

EXERCISE 2
1.A stack of 20 cards contains 4 cards of each of 5 different colours, namely white, black, green, red
and blue. A part from the colour the cards are indistinguishable. A set of 3 cards is draw at random
from the stack. Find the chances that the 3 cards are:
(i)all white
(ii)all of one colour
(iii) of different colours

2. Box A contains 3 white and 3 black balls and box B contains 4 white and 3 black balls.
One ball is transferred from A to B. One ball is then drawn from B and is found to be white. What
is the probability that the transferred ball was white?

3.A sample poll of 200 Voters revealed the following information concerning three candidates A, B
and C of a certain party who were running for three different offices. 28 in favour of both A and B,
122 in favour of B or C but not A, 98 in favour of A or B but not C, 64 in favour of C but not A or B,
42 in favour of B but not C, 14 in favour of A and C but not B.
Find the probability of voters who were in favour of :
(a) all the three candidates
(b) A irrespective of B or C
(c) B irrespective of A or C
(d) C irrespective of A or B
(e) A and B but not C
(f) only one of the candidates.

4.Three cards are drawn from a deck of 52 cards. Find the probability that:
(a) two are jacks and one is a King
(b) all cards are of one suit.
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80 Advanced Level Statistics & Numerical methods

(c) all cards are of different suits.
(d) at least two aces are drawn.

5.. If 10% of the rivets produced by a machine are defective, what is the probability that out of 5
rivets chosen at random:
(a) none will be defective
(b) one will be defective
(c) at least two will be defective?
6.. Two marbles are drawn in succession from the box containing 10 red, 30 white, 20 blue 15
orange marbles. Replacement being made after each drawing. Find the probability that:
(a)both are white.
(b)the first is red and the second is white.
(c)neither is orange
(d)they are either red or white or both (red and white)
(e)the second is not blue.
(f)the first is orange.
(g)at least one is blue.
(h)at most one is red.
(i)the first is white but the second is not.
(j)only one is red.

7..A factory has three machines 1,2 and 3 producing a particular type of item. One item is drawn at
random from the factory is production. Let B denote the event that the chosen item is defective and
let AK denote the event that the item was produced on machine K, where K = 1,2 or 3. Suppose
that the machines 1,2 and 3 produce respectively 35%, 45% and 20% of the total production of
items and that P(B/A1) = 0.02, P(B/A2) = 0.01
P(B/A3) = 0.03, Given that an item chosen at random is defective. Find which machine was the
most likely to have produced it.
8..Three events A, B and c are defined in the sample space. The events A and C are mutually
exclusive. The events A and B are independent.
1 1 2
Given that P(A) = , P(C) = , P(AUB) = Find:
3 5 3
(a)P(AUC)
(b)P(B)
(c)P(A∩B)
3
Given also that P(BUC) = , determine whether or not B are independent.
5
9.. A die with faces numbered 1 to 6 is biased so that P( score is r ) =Kr
(r = 1, ……, 6). Find:
(i) the value of k
(ii) if the die is thrown twice, calculate the probability that the total score exceeds 10 .
10…The probabilities that a man make a certain dangerous journey by car, motor cycle or on foot are
1 1 1
, and respectively. If the probabilities of an accident when he uses these means of transport are
2 6 3
1 2 1
, and respectively, Find the probability of an accident occurring in a single journey . If an
5 5 10
accident is known to have happened. Calculate the probabilities that the man was traveling:
(a)by car
(b)by motor cycle
(c)on foot
11..In a workshop three machines produce compression springs of a certain size Machine A produces
40% of the total, Machine B 25% and Machine the remainder. On average 6% of the springs produced

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Advanced Level Statistics & Numerical methods 81

by A do not conform to the tolerance requirements. The corresponding percentages for B and C are
4% and 3% respectively. One spring elected at random from the whole output, is found to be
unsatisfactory. Calculate the probability that it was produced by A.
12..Events A and B are such that P(A) =
5
12
( )
P A B =
7
12
1
P(A∩B) = Determine:
8
(a)P(B)
(b)P(A/B)
(c)P(B/A)
(d)P(AUB)
State whether events A and B are:
(i)mutually exclusive
(ii) independent
13.In a large group of people it is known that 10% have a hot breakfast, 20% have lunch and 25%
have a hot breakfast or a hot lunch. Find the probability that a person chosen at random from this
group:
has a hot breakfast and a hot lunch
has a hot lunch, given that the person chosen had a hot breakfast.

14.Two cards are drawn successively from an ordinary deck of 52 well –shuffled cards. Find the
probability that:
(a) the first card is not a ten of clubs or an ace.
(b) the first card is an ace but the second is not
(c) at least one card is a diamond
(d) the cards are not of the same sit
(e) not more than one card is a picture card (Jack, Queen, King)
(f) the second card is not a picture card
(g) the second card is not a picture card given that the first was a picture card
(h) the cards are picture cards or spade or both.

ANSWERS
1 1 32
1. (i) (ii) (iii)
285 57 57
5
2.
9
1 39 43 51 1 71)
3. (a) (b) (c) (d) (e) (f)
25 100 100 100 10 100
6 22 169 73
4. (a) (b) (c) (d)
5525 425 425 5525
5.( (a) 0.59049 (b) 0.32805 (c) 0.08866 )
6.(a) 4/25 (b) 4/75 (c) 16/25 (d) 64/225
(e) 11/15 (f) 1/5 (g) 104/225 (h) 221/225
(i) 6/25 (j) 52/225 )
7.(Machine C probability = 0.4 )
8 1 1
8.(a) (b) (c) Independent
15 2 6
1 32
9. (i) (ii) )
21 147

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1 1 1 1
10. (a) (b) (c)
5 2 3 4
11.(48/89)
1 1 3 19
12.(a) (b) (c) (d) (i) No (ii) No
2 4 10 24
13.(a) 0.05 (b) 0.5 )
47 16 31 13 210 10 40 77
14.(a) (b) (c) (d) (e) (f) (g) (h)
52 221 34 17 221 13 51 442

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Advanced Level Statistics & Numerical methods 83

3. DISCRETE PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTION.
Introduction:

A discrete probability distribution shall be understood as a probability distribution characterized

by a probability mass function. Thus, the distribution of a random variable X is discrete, and X is
then called a discrete random variable, if

∑ (X = x ) = 1
i =1

as x runs through the set of all possible values of X. It follows that such a random variable can assume
only a finite or countably infinite number of values.

In cases more frequently considered, this set of possible values is a topologically discrete set in the
sense that all its points are isolated points. But there are discrete random variables for which this
countable set is dense on the real line (for example, a distribution over rational numbers).

Among the most well-known discrete probability distributions that are used for statistical modeling are
the Poisson distribution, the Bernoulli distribution, the binomial distribution, the geometric
distribution, and the negative binomial distribution. In addition, the discrete uniform distribution is
commonly used in computer programs that make equal-probability random selections between a
number of choices.

Mathematically:

A discrete random variable X is defined as a probability function P(X = x), which gives the probability
that X takes on values of x as a probability denoted by P(X = x) or Pi

n
Where ∑ P =1
i =1
i

(i) EXPECTATION OR EXPECTED VALUE (E(X)) OR MEAN OF

DISCRETE RANDOM VARIABLE
Mean ( µ ) = E (X)
n
= ∑ xP( X = x )
all x

If we replace P(X = x) with Pi and for which X takes on the value xi for i = 1, 2, … S, n then,
Mean( µ ) = E(X)
n
= ∑
i =1
Pi X i for i = 1, 2, , , , n

(ii) VARIANCE AND STANDARD DEVIATION OF A DISCRETE RANDOM VARIABLE

∑ Px (X − µ )
2
Var (X) =
all x

= E (X 2 ) –[E(X)]2

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= E (X 2 ) - µ 2
Standard deviation = VarX
= ( )
E X2 − µ2
2
Where E( X 2 ) = ∑x
all x
p( X = x )
n

∑P x
2
= i i for i = 1,2, …, n
i =1

(iii) MEDIAN (M) OF A DISCRETE RANDOM VARIABLE

Cumulate the probabilities from the top downwards until a value of 0.5 or slightly above 0.5 is
obtained, also cumulate the probabilities from the bottom upwards until a value of 0.5 or slightly
above 0.5 is obtained, for the values obtained read off the corresponding X values. If they are
different find the average of the two. This explained as below.

M N
1
∑ Pi ≥
2
≤ ∑ Pi
i =1 i=M

If the two different values that satisfy the inequality are X m and X m +1 then the median (m) =
X m + X m +1
2

(iv) MODE OF A DISCRETE RANDOM VARIABLE

The mode of a discrete random variable is the value of X with the highest probability.

(v) DISCRETE UNIFORM DISTRIBUTION OR RECTANGULAR DISTRIBUTION

A discrete random variable X, taking on values 1, 2, 3,…k such that:

1
 for x = 1, 2, 3,....k
P (X = x ) = k
0 otherwise

follows a rectangular or discrete uniform distribution.

Note:
E(a) = a
E(ax) = a E(x),
E(ax + b) = a E(x) + b,
Var(ax) = a 2 Var(x)
Var(ax + b) = a 2 Var(x)
E(x + y) = E(x) + E(y),
E(x – y) = E(x) – E(y),
E(ax + by) = a E(x) + b E(y)E(ax – by) = a E(x) – b E(y),
Var(x +y) = Var(x – y) = Var(x) + Var(y)
Var(ax + by) = Var(ax - by) = a 2 Var(x) + b 2 Var(y)

Example 1. A random variable x has probability function P(0) = 0.1.

P(1) = 0.3, P(2) = 0.4 and P(4) = 0.2. Determine mean and standard deviation:
Solution.
Xi 0 1 2 4
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Advanced Level Statistics & Numerical methods 85

Pi 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2

Mean ( µ ) = ∑ X i Pi
= 0 x 0.1 + 1 x 0.3 + 2 x 0.4 + 4x0.2
Mean ( µ ) = 1.9
Standard deviation = ( )
E X2 − µ2

∑X
2
E( X 2 ) = i Pi = 02 x 0.1 +12 x 0.3 + 22 x 0.4 + 42 x 0.2

= 5.1
5.1 − (1.9 )
2
Standard deviation =
= 1∙2207
Example 2: The number of times a machine breaks down every month is a discrete random
variable X with probability distribution.
  1 x
k   x = 0, 1, 2, 3,....
P(x = x) =   4 
0
 otherwise
Where k is a constant.
Determine the probability that the machine will break down not more than two times a month.
Solution:
 1  0 1
1
1
2
1
n

k   +   +   + ⋅⋅⋅ +    = 1
 4  4 4 4 

k[ 1+ + ]
1 1 1
2
+ ... + n = 1 ……………. *
4 4 4
1
It’s a geometric progression (G.P) with a =1 and common ratio r =
4
a
Sum of a G.P. =
1− r
1
=
1− 1
4
1 4
= = …………… **
3 3
4
Substitute ** into *
4k
= 1
3
3
:. k =
4
Probability that the machine will break down not more than two times.
P (X ≤ 2) = P (X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2)
3 3 3
= + +
4 4 2 43
48 + 12 + 3
=
43
63
= = 0.9844
64
Example 3. A discrete random variable X has the following probability
distribution.

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86 Advanced Level Statistics & Numerical methods

X 1 2 3 4 5
P(X = x) k 2k 3k 4k 5k

(i) Determine the value of k.

(ii) Evaluate P(2 < X < 4)
(iii) Calculate mean, median, mode and standard deviation.
Solution.
(i) ∑ Pi = 1
k + 2k + 3k + 4k + 5k = 1
15k = 1
1
:. k =
15

X 1 2 3 4 5
P(X = x) 1 1 3 4 5
15 15 15 15 15

(ii) P(2 < X < 4) = P(X = 3)

3
=
15
a. Mean (μ) = ∑ Pi X i i

1 2 3 4 5
= × 1+ ×2 + × 3+ ×4 + ×5
15 15 15 15 15
55 11
= =
15 3
= 3.6667

X Pi Cumulative probability
1 1 1
15 15
2 2 3
15 15
3 3 6
Location
15of 15
median
4 4 10 9
15 15 15
5 5 5
15 15

Median = 4
5
The highest frequency =
15
:. Mode = 5
Standard deviation = ∑ X 2 i Pi − (µ) 2
2
1 2 3 4 5  11 
12 x + 2 2 x + 32 x + 4 2 x + 5 2 x −  
= 15 15 15 15 15  3 

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Advanced Level Statistics & Numerical methods 87

= 1.5556
= 1.2471

Example 5. A discrete random variable can assume values 0, 1, 2, 3, only.

Given that (P(X ≤ 2) = 0.9, P(X ≤ 1) = 0.5 and E(X) = 1.4 determine:

(i) P(X =1)

(ii) P(X = 0)
(iii) Median and mode
(iv) Standard deviation
Solution:
P0 + P1 + P2 + P3 = 1 (i)
P0 + P1 + P2 = 0.9 (ii)

Substitute (ii) into (i)

0.9 + P3 = 1
:. P(X = 3) = 0.1
P0 + P1 = 0.5 (iv)
Substitute (iv) into (ii)
0.5 + P2 = 0.9
P2 = 0.4
P(X = 4) = 0.4

E(X) = XoPo + X1P1 + X2P2 + X3P3

= 1.4
0 x P0 + P1 + 2 x 0.4 3 x 0.1 = 1.4
P1 = 0.3
:. P(X = 1) = 0.3

(ii) P0 + P1 + P2 + P3 = 1
P0 + 0.3 +0.4 +0.1 = 1
P0 = 0.2
P(x = 0) = 0.2
(iii)
X P Cumulative probability
0 0.2 0.2
1 0.3 0.5 Location of
2 0.4 0.6
median
3 0.5 0.1

1+ 2 3
Median = =
2 2
= 1.5
The highest probability is 0.5
Mode = 2
(iv) Standard deviation = ∑ X 2 Pi − (µ) 2
= (0 2 x 0.2 + 12 x 0.3 + 2 2 x 0.5 + 3 2 x 0.1 − (1.4) 2
= 3.2 −1.96 = 1.1136

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88 Advanced Level Statistics & Numerical methods

Example 6.Find the variance of the sum of the scores when an ordinary die is thrown 10 times.
Solution:
To find the variance of the sum of the scores when an ordinary die is thrown 10 times, we have;
Var ( x1 + x2 + x3 + ......... + x10 )
But since it the same die, that is repeatedly thrown,
x1 = x2 =........ x10 = x
Var ( x1 + x2 +... + x10 ) = Var(x1) + Var(x2) +.......+ Var(x10)
= Var(x) + Var(x) +.......+ Var(x10)
= 10 Var(x)

x 1 2 3 4 5 6
x2 1 4 9 16 25 36
P(x = x) 1 1 1 1 1 1
6 6 6 6 6 6

Var (x) = E(x2) - [E(x)]2

Now
1 1 1 1 1 1
E(x) = 1  + 2  + 3  + 4  + 5  + 6 
6 6 6 6 6 6
1 2 3 4 5 6
= + + + + +
6 6 6 6 6 6
21 7
= =
6 2
2 1 1 1 1 1 1
E(x ) = 1  + 4  + 9  + 16  + 25  + 36 
6 6 6 6 6 6
91
=
6
2
91 7
Var (x) = -  
6 2
The required variance is therefore given by;
 91 49  1
10 Var (x) = 10  −  = 29
6 4  6
1
Thus, the variance of the sum of the scores when an ordinary die is thrown is 29
6
Example 7. A committee of 3 is to be chosen from 4 girls and 7 boys. Find the expected number
of girls on the committee, if the members of the committee are chosen at random.

Solution.
This is a discrete random variable.
The number of ways of choosing 3 committee members from a total of 11 people is
11 11!
  = = 165
3  3!8!
The probability that the committee contains only x girls is
 4  7   4  7 
     
P(X = x) =  x  3 − x  =  x  3 − x 
11 165
 
3 
When x = 0

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 4  7 
  
P(X=0) =  0  3  =
35
165 165
When x=1
 4  7 
  
P(X=1) = 1  2  =
84
165 165
When x = 2
 4  7 
  
P(X=2) =  2 1  =
42
165 165
When x = 3
 4  7 
  
P(X=3) =  3  0  =
4
165 165
The probability distribution function is then given below
x 0 1 2 3
P(X = x) 35 84 42 4
165 165 165 165

The expected number of girls E(X) is

3
E(X) = ∑ XP(X = x )
x =0

 35   84   42   4 
= 0  + 1  + 2  + 3 
 165   165   165   165 
12
E(X) = .
11
Example 8. A random variable X has the probability function.
k 2 x ; x = 0, 1, 2, ...., 6
f(x) = 
0 , else where
Determine: (i) the value of k
(ii) E(X)
(iii) P(X < 4/ X > 1)
Solution:
(i) k { 20 + 21 + 2 2 + 23 + 24 + 2 4 + 26 = 1
k {1 + 2 + 4+ 8+ 16 + 32 + 64} = 1
127k = 1
1
k =
127
(ii) E(X) = ∑ Pi X i
1 2 4 8 16 32 64
= 0× + 1× + 2× + 3× + 4× + 5× + 6×
127 127 127 127 127 127 127
642
=
127
= 5.0551
(iii) Let A = x<4 B=x>1
P( A ∩ B )
P(A/B) =
P(B)
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4 8
P(A∩B) = +
127 127
12
=
127
2
P(B) = 1-
127
125
=
127
12
= 127
125
127
12
= = 0.096
127

Example 9. A random variable X has probability density function P(X = x) given below.
x
 , x = 1, 2, 3, …. n
P(X = x) =  2k
0 , else where
Given that E(X) = 3, Find:
(i) the value of k
(ii) the value of n
(iii) the median and mode
(iv) variance
Solution:
X 1 2 3 ….. n
P(X = x) 1 2 3 n
2K 2K 2K 2k

From ∑ Pi = 1
1 2 3 n
+ + + … + = 1
2k 2k 2k 2k
1
(1 + 2 + 3 + … + n) = 1
2k
n
n
∑n 1
=
2
(n + 1)

n (n + 1)
= 1 ,
4k
n (n +1)
k = ………….. (i)
4
E(X) = ∑ Pi X i
1 22 32 n2
= + + + ….. +
2k 2k 2k 2k
n
n
∑n2 =
6
(n + 1) (2n + 1) …………………….. *

n
E(X) = (1 + 22 + 32 + … + n 2 ) = 3 …. **
2k

Substitute * into **
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n
(n + 1) (2n + 1) = 3
12k

n (n + 1) (2n + 1)
= k ………….(ii)
36

Equate equation (i) and (ii)

n (n + 1) n (n + 1) (2n + 1)
=
4 36

36
= 2n + 1
4

2n + 1 = 9

2n = 8

n = 4

Using equation (i)

n (n + 1)
k =
4

4×5
=
4

= 5

(i) k = 5

(ii)
X 1 2 3 4

P(X =x) 1 2 3 4
10 10 10 10

X Pi Cumulative probability
1 1 1
10 10
2 2 3
10 10 Location of
3 3 6 7 median

10 10 10
4 4 4
10 10

Median = 3

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92 Advanced Level Statistics & Numerical methods

4
The highest probability =
10
:. Mode = 4
Var(X) = ∑ X i2 Pi - (E(x)) 2
1
2 3 4
= 12 × + 22 × + 32 × + 42 ×
10 10 10 10
= 10 - (3) 2 = 1
:. Var(X) = 1
Example 10. A discrete random variable X, has the following probability distribution.
X 1 2 3 4
P(X) 1 1 1 1
16 2 4 16
Find: (i) the mean
(ii) median and mode
(iii) variance of x
Solution:
(i) Mean E(X) = ∑ xP(X)
3 8 4 1
= 1× +2 × +3 × +4 ×
16 16 16 16
35
=
16
= 2.25
(ii)
x P Cumulative probability
1 3 3
16 16
2 8 11 12 Location of
median
16 16 16
3 4 4
16 16
4 1 1
16 16

:. Median = 2
8
Highest probability =
16
:. Mode = 2
(iii) Var(X) = ∑ x 2 P(X) − (E(X)) 2
2
 3 8 4 1  35 
= 1 × 16 + 4 × 16 + 9 × 16 + 16 × 16  –  
   16 
2
87  35 
= - 
16  16 
167
=
256
= 0.6523
Example 11: A discrete random variable X is represented by the probability function

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Advanced Level Statistics & Numerical methods 93

1 + x
 ; for x 1, 2, 3, ..., 6
P(X = x) =  kx
0 , elsewhere
Find (i) the value of k
(ii) Expectation of X
(iii) Mode and median
(iv) P(X ≥ 3 / X ≤ 4)
Solution
(i)
X 1 2 3 4 5 6
1+ x 2 3 4 5 6 7
P(X = x) =
kx k k k k k k

From ∑P i =1
2 3 4 5 6 7
+ + + + + = 1
k k k k k k
1  120 + 90 + 80 + 75 + 72 + 70 
  = 1
k 60 
507
= 1
60k
507
k =
60

X 1 2 3 4 5 6
P(X = x) 120 90 90 75 72 70
507 507 507 507 507 507

120 + 180 + 240 + 300 + 360 + 420

(ii) mean, (E(X)) =
507
1620
=
507
E(X) = 3.1953
120
(iii) the highest probability is ,
507
The mode is 1
X Pi Cumulative probability
1 120 120
507 507
2 210 210
507 507
3 290 290 297
507 507 507
4 75 217
507 507
5 72 142
507 507

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94 Advanced Level Statistics & Numerical methods

1 120
507

Location of
median

Median = 3

(iv) let A = X≥3 B = X≤4

X Pi Wi = 3 Zi = 2x + 4 P( A ∩ B
P (A/B) =
P(B)
P(A∩B) = P(X = 3) +
P(X = 4)
80 70
= +
507 507
155
=
507
P(B) = 1 – (P(X = 6))
 72 70 
= 1–  + 
 507 507 
142
= 1-
507
365
=
507

155
P(X ≥ 3 / X ≤ 4) = 507
365
507
155
=
365
= 0.4247
Example

12. The table below shows a random variable X with the following probability distribution.
X 1 2 3 4 5
P(X = x) 1 1 1 1 1
5 5 5 5 5

(i) Construct tables for the distributions W and Z, such that W = 3x and Z = 2x + 4.
(ii) Find the expectations of W and Z
(iii) Calculate the variance of Z.
Solution:

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(i) 1 1 3 6
5
2 1 6 8
5
3 1 9 10
(ii) E(W) 5 = ∑WP i i
4 1 12 12
1 1 1
5 = x3 + x6 + x9 +
5 5 5
1 5 1 15 14 1
x12 + 5 x15
5 5
3 + 6 + 9 + 12 + 15
=
5
45
= = 9
5
E(W) = 9

E(Z) = ∑Z P i i

1 1 1 1 1
= x 6 + x 8 + x 10 + x 12 + x 14
5 5 5 5 5
6 + 8 + 10 + 12 + 14
=
5
50
=
5
= 10
Example 13. A random variable X has a probability density function f (X)
given as

X -1 0 1
P(X = x) a 1 b
2

Where a and b are the probability of P(x = -1) and P(x = 1) respectively.
1
Given that E(X) = , Determine
6
(i) the value of a and b
(ii) the variance and standard deviation
(iii) P(x > -1)
Solution
(i) ∑ Pi = 1
1
a+ +b = 1
2
1
:. a + b =
2
or 2a + 2b = 1 (i) x3
6a +6b = 3 (ii)
1
E(X) = ∑ Pi X i = 6
1
-a + 0 + b =
6
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6b – 6a = 1 (iii)
6a + 6b = 3 ( from (ii))
12b = 4 (adding (ii) and (iii))
4
b =
12
1
=
3
1 1
a = -
2 3
3−2
=
6
1
=
6
1 1
:. a = and b =
6 3
X -1 0 1
P(X = x) 1 1 1
6 2 3

(ii) Var(x) = ∑X 2
Pi − ( E( X )) 2
2
1 3 1 1
= (-1) 2
x + 02 x + 12 x -  
6 6 2 6
3 1
= -
6 36
17
=
36
= 0.4722
Standard deviation = Var(X)
= 0.4722
= 0.6872
(iii) P(x > -1) = P(X = 0) + P(X= 1)
3 2
= +
6 6
5
=
6
= 0.83
Example 14: The probability mass function P(X) of the random variable X is given by:
kx + d ; x = − 2, − 1, 0, 1, 2
P(X) = 
0 , elsewhere
Where k and d are constants.
(i) If P(x = 2) = 2P(x = -2), determine the values of k and d.
(ii) Compute the mean and variance of x.
(iii) What is the probability that x ≠ 0?
Solution:
n
(i) ∑ P =1
i =1
i

At x = -2 P(-2) = -2k + d
x = -1 P(-1) = -k + d
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x=0 P(0) = d
x=1 P(1) = k+d
x=2 P(2) = 2k + d
⇒ P(-2) + P(-1) + P(0) + P(1) + P(2) = 1
-2k + d – k +d + k + d + 2k + d = 1
5d = 1
1
d =
5
P(X = 2) = 2P(X = -2)
-2k + d = 2(-2k + d)
6k = d
1
6k =
5
1
k =
30
x 1
 + x = −2 ,−1 , 0 , 1 , 2
P(X) =  30 5
0 , elsewhere
n
(ii) Mean E(X) = ∑ X i Pi substitute the values of x in P(x)
i =1

X -2 -1 0 1 2
P 0.1333 0.1666 0.2 0.2333 0.2666

E(X) = -2 x 0.1333 – 1 x 0.1666 +0.0.2 +1 1 x 0.2333 + 2 x 0.2666

= 0.3333
(iii) Either : P(X ≠ 0) = P(X = -2) + P(X = -1) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2)
= 0.1333 + 0.1666 + 0.2333 + 0.2666
= 0.7998
≈ 0.8
Or : P(X ≠ 0) = 1 − P(x = 0)
= 1 – 0.2
= 0.8
Example 15; A discrete random variable X has a probability density function.
P(X = x) =k │x│ where x takes the values -3,-2, -1, 0, 1, 2, 3. Find;
(a) the value of the constant K
(b) E(X)
(c) E( X 2 )
(d) Standard deviation
Solution
(a)
Xi -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
Pi 3k 2k k 0 k 2k 3k
n

∑ X i Pi = 1
i =1

3k + 2k + k + k + 2k + 3k = 1
12k = 1
1
k =
12
Xi -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3

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Pi 3 2 1 0 1 2 3
12 12 12 12 12 12

n
(b) E(X) = ∑ X i Pi
i =1

3 2 1 1 2 3
E(X) = -3 × −2 × − × 1 + 0 + 1× +2 × + 3×
12 12 12 12 12 12
9 − 4 −1 + 0 + 1 + 4 + 9
E(X) =
12
0
=
12
E(X) = 0
( )
n
(c) E X2 = ∑
i =1
X 2 i Pi

( )
E X2 = (− 3)2 x 3
12
+ (− 2 ) x + (− 1) x
2 2
12
2 1
12
+0 + 12 x
1
12
+ 22 x
2
12
+ 32 x
3
12
27 8 1 1 8 27
= + + + + +
12 12 12 12 12 12
= 6
(d) Standard deviation = Variance
Variance = E (X 2 ) - (E (X ) ) 2
= 6 – (0 ) 2
= 6
Standard deviation = 6
= 2.4445
Example 16. The probability distribution for the number of heads that show up when a coin is tossed
 1 3 
3 times is given by P(X = x) =   , x = 0, 1,2, 3,.
k x  
Find:
(i) The value of k,
(ii) E(X).
Solution:
We have
1 3 
P(X = x) =    , x = 0,1,2,3.
k  x
This is a discrete random variable.
‘It should be noted that
n n!
  =
x (n − x )!x !
Hence when
1  3!  1
X = 0, P(x = 0) =   =
k  3!0!  k
1  3!  3
X = 1, P(x = 1) =   =
k  2!1!  k
1  3!  3
X = 2, P(x = 2) =   =
k  1!2!  k

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1  3!  1
X = 3, P(x = 3) =   =
k  0!3!  k
In table form,
X 0 1 2 3
P (x = 1 3 3 1
x) k k k k

(i) To find the value of k

3
Now ∑ P(X = x) = 1
x =0
1 3 3 1
⇒ + + + = 1
k k k k
8
= 1
k
∴ k = 8 #

(ii)Table is now in form

X 0 1 2 3
P(x = 1 3 3 1
x) 8 8 8 8
Now
3
E(x) = ∑ xP(x = x)
x =0

0   + 1  + 2  + 3 

1 3 3 1
=
8 8 8 8
3 6 3
= + +
8 8 8
12 3
= = = 1.5
8 2
∴ E(x) = 1.5 #
Example 17. A balanced coin is tossed three times and the number of times X a ‘Head’ appear
is recorded. Complete the following table.

n 0 1 2 3
Event (TTT) HHT,HTT,TH
H
P(X=n) 1/8

Determine the average of the expected number of heads to appear.

Solution:
n 0 1 2 3
Event TTT HTT HHT HHH
THT THH
TTH HTH
P(X = 1/8 3/8 3/8 1/8
n)

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Expected number of heads to appear
E(X) = ∑n P(X = n)
= (0 ×1/8) + ( 1×3/8) + (2 ×3/8) + (3 ×1/8)
= 0 + 38 + 6 8 + 38
12 3
= = = 1.5
8 2
E (X) = 1.5
Hence the average of the expected number of heads to appear is 1.5

EXERCISE 3
1.. A discrete random variable X has distribution function F(X) where
x
 x
F(X) = 1 - 1 −  for x = 1, 2, 3, 4
 4
63 3
(a)Show that F(3) = and F (2) =
64 4
(b)Obtain a probability distribution of x
(c)Find E(X) and Var(X).
(d)Find P(X > E(X))
2. The random variable X takes integer values only and has p d f
P(X = x) = kx x = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5

P(X = x) = k(10 – x) x = 6, 7, 8, 9
Find a) the value of the constant k.
b) E(X)
c) Var(X)
d) E(2x – 3)
e) Var(2x – 3)
3. If X is a random variable on “a biased die” and the probability density function of X is as
shown.

X 1 2 3 4 5 6
P(X = x) 1 1 1 y 1 1
6 6 5 5 6

Find (a)the value of y

(b)E(X)
( )
(c)E X 2
(d)Var(X)
(e)Var(4X)
4. A random variable R takes the integer value r with probability.
P(r) = Kr 2 r = 1, 2, 3
P(r) = K (7 − r ) 2
r = 4, 5, 6
P(r) = 0 otherwise
Find; (a) the value of y
(b) The mean
(c) The variance

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5. A discrete random variable X can take only the values 0, 1, 2, or 3 and its probability
distribution is given by P(X = 0) = k, P(X = 1) = 3k, P(X =2) = 4k and P(X = 3) = 5k, where K is a
constant. Find;
(a) The value of K.
(b) Mean and variance of X.
6. A discrete random variable X has probability function given by;
 1  2
  x =1, 2, 3, 4, 5
 2 

P(X) = c x=6
0 otherwise


Where C is a constant.
Determine
(i)the value of C
(ii)the mode
(iii)the arithmetic mean
7. The discrete random variable X has a probability density function given by;
3x + 1
P(X = x) = for x = 0, 1, 2, 3.
22
Find (a) E(X)
(b) E( X 2 )
(c) E(3x - 2)
(d) E( 2 x 2 + 4x - 3)

8. A discrete random variable X has a probability density function.

X 0 1 2 3
P(X = x) a a 2
a +a
2
3a 2 + 2a
Determine; (a) the constant a
(b)E(X)

9. A curiously shaped six-faced die produces a score X, for which the probability distribution is given
in the following table.
R 1 2 3 4 5 6
P(X = r) C c c c c c
2 3 4 5 6
20
(i)Show that the constant c is
49
(ii)Find the mean and variance
(iii)The die is thrown twice. Show that the probability of obtaining equal scores is approximately
1
4
10. A discrete random variable has a probability density function of
P(x = r) = k(n – r) for r = 1, 2, 3 …, n where K is a constant.
show that
2
(i) k is
n (n − 1)
1
(ii) E(X) = ( n + 1)
3

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1
(iii) Var(X) = (n + 1)(n – 2)
18
11. A disc is drawn from a bag containing 10 disc numbered 0, 1, 2, …., 9. The random variable X is
defined as the square of the number drawn. Find:
(i)E(X)
(ii)Var(X)
12. A bag contains one 50p coins, three 20p coins, seven 10p coins and several 5p coins. Given when
one coin is selected at random the expectation is 10p. Find.
(i) The number of 5p coins
(ii) Find also the expectation when two coins are selected at random without replacement.

13. A random variable R takes values 1, 2, …, n with equal probabilities. Determine;

(i) The expectation µ of R
(ii) Show that the variance δ 2 is given by 12δ² = n 2 − 1
(iii)find P(│R - µ │) > δ) in the case n = 100
14. A cubical die is biased in such away that the probability of scoring n where n = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 is
proportional to n.
Determine; (i) the mean value
(iii)Variance of the score obtained in a single score.
(iii)The mean and variance if the score is doubled.

EXERCISE 3
1.. (b)
X 1 2 3 4
P(X = x) 1 1 15 1
4 2 64 16
1 1
(c) 2 (d)
16 4
2. (a) 0.04 (b) 5 (c) 4 (d) 7 (e) 16)
1 1 7 59 11
3. (a) (b) 3 (c) 15 (d) 2 (e) 47 )
10 2 30 60 15
1
4. (a) (b) 3.4 (c) 1.25)
28
1 12
5. (a) (b) 2 )
31 13
1 31
6.((i) (ii) 1 (iii) 1 )
32 32
24 61 50 9
7. (a) (b) (c) (d) 16
11 11 11 11

8. (a) 0.2 (b) 2.08

120
9. (a) (b) 2.57)
49
10.Proof.
11. (a) 28.5 (b) 721.05
12. (a) 14 (b) 20p

13. ((i) ½(n + 1) (ii) 0.42)

1 2 2 8
14. (i) 4 (b) 2 (c) 8 (d) 8
3 9 3 9
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6.NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
Introduction:

The normal distribution (bell shaped structure ) is considered the most prominent probability
distribution in statistics. There are several reasons for this:

f(x)

Normal
curve

µ(mean)

First, the normal distribution arises from the central limit theorem, which states that under mild
conditions, the mean of a large number of random variables independently drawn from the same
distribution is distributed approximately normally, irrespective of the form of the original distribution.
This gives it exceptionally wide application in, for example, sampling.

Secondly, the normal distribution is very tractable analytically, that is, a large number of results
involving this distribution can be derived in explicit form.

For these reasons, the normal distribution is commonly encountered in practice, and is used throughout
statistics, the natural sciences, and the social sciences as a simple model for complex phenomena. For
example, the observational error in an experiment is usually assumed to follow a normal distribution,
and the propagation of uncertainty is computed using this assumption.

• Note that a normally distributed variable has a symmetric distribution about its mean

Mathematically:

This is a continuous random variable that is equally skewed on both sides, resulting into a bell shaped
structure usually referred to as a normal curve and the variable is called the normal random variable.
A convenient way of denoting that X is normally distributed with mean µ and variance S2 is X ~N( n,
S2)

CHARACTERISTICS OF THE NORMAL CURVE

(i) the curve is symmetrical about the mean.
(ii) The x-axis is an asymptote to the curve.
(iii) The area under the curve is 1.

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(iv) As x + ∞ , f(x) 0
(v) The mode occurs at the maximum point (P) on the vertical axis.

AREA UNDER THE NORMAL CURVE

The area under the two co-ordinates X1 and X2, represent the probability that a random variable X lies
between the two values
X1 and X2.

f(x)

Area = P(X1 <X<X2) = P(X <X2) – P(X <X1).

STANDARD NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
This is a special type of normal distribution with
(i) mean (µ) equal to zero ( µ = 0).
(ii) Standard deviation ( δ ) is equal to 1. ( δ = 1 )
(iii) The total area under the curve is 1.

f(x)

µ=0
σ=1

STANDARDISATION
This is a process of transforming a normal variable into a standard normal variable following a normal
distribution with mean (µ) and standard deviation (So, the corresponding standard normal variable is
X−µ
given by Z =
σ
If X1 and X2 are two normal variable with mean ( µ) and standard deviation ( σ ) to obtain the
probability of a random variable X that lies betweens X1 and X2

P(X1 < X < X2) = P(X < X2) – P(X < X1)
Standardizing X1 and X2, where Z1 is the standard normal variable for X1 and Z2 is the standard
X −µ
normal variable for X2 then from Z =
σ
X1 − µ
at X = X1, Z1 =
σ
P(X1 <X<X2) = P(Z1 < Z < Z2)

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 X1 − µ X −µ 
= P ∠Z ∠ 2 
 σ σ 
∴ P(Z1 < Z <Z2) = P(Z <Z2) - P(Z < Z1)

NORMAL DISRIBUTION TABLES

There are mainly two types of tables.

(i) One with areas under both negative and positive values of Z. It is the most convenient but not
common.
(ii) One with the positive values of Z. These are of two types.
(a) one with P(Z < 0) = 0.5000
(b) one with P(Z < 0 ) = 0.0000
with (ii) (b) we must first of all add 0.5 to all the Z values.
For (ii) (a) and (b) in case the Z value is negative there is need to use the formulae for conversion.
300

f(x)

-Z1 Z1

P( Z < -Z1) = P(Z > Z1) (i)

(i) Since the area below –Z on left hand side is equal to area above Z1.

Also P(Z > Z1) + P(Z < Z1) = Total area under the curve
P(Z > Z1) + P(Z < Z1) = 1
P(Z >Z1) = 1 – P (Z < Z1) (ii)

Substitute (ii) into (i)

P(Z < -Z1) = 1 – (Z < Z1). is the formulae for conversion.

NOTE: Normal distribution tables values of Z that in the form of less than.
That is P(Z< |Z1|)

DE-STANDARDISING
Sometimes it is necessary to find a value X which corresponds to the standardized value Z.
X−µ
If Z= then X = µ + σZ .
S

DETERMINING THE Z – VALUE WHEN THE AREA IS GIVEN (PROBABILITY)

In some cases a Z value may be needed when the area (Probability) is given.
P(Z < Z1) = 0.6772.
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Check for 0.6772 inside the table, and after identifying it read off the value of Z in full including its
decimal value if it is
P(Z > -Z1) = 0.6331 convert it into less than from.
P(Z > - Z1) + P( Z < - Z1) = 1
P(Z >- Z1) = 1 – P(Z < - Z1) = 0.6331.
P(Z < - Z1) = 0.3669.
P(Z < - Z1) = P( Z > Z1) = 1 – P(Z < Z1)
P(Z < Z1) = 0.6331
Z1 = 0.34
∴ -Z1 = - 0.34

THE NORMAL APPROXIMATION TO A BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION

Normal distribution is used in estimation of discrete random variable. These include approximation of
normal distribution to Binomial distribution. Normal distribution is used to estimate Binomial
distribution when.
(i).. if the number of independent trials in a binomial distribution is large.
1
(ii) When the probability of success p is close to .
2
Let X be a random variable following a binomial distribution.
E(X) = µ
= np

Var(X) = npq
Standard deviation = npq
If n is large, the value of Z changes from
x−µ (X ± 0.5) − np
Z = to Z = (1)
S npq
0.5 included in (1) is called the continuity collection. Since we are approximating a discrete
distribution function to a continuous distribution function.
If X1 and X2 correspond to Z1 and Z2.

X1 or Z1

(X 1 + 0.5) − np
Z1 = for at most X cases.
npq
(ii)

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f(x)

X2 or Z2

P(X > X2 ) = P(Z > Z2).

P(X>X2) = P( at least X2) = P (at least Z2)
( Z − 0.5) − np
Z2 = for at least X cases.
npq
Where n is large
p= probability of failure
q = 1 - p = probability of failure
n = number of independent trials.
NOTE: Add 0.5 if we want the probability of a t most X successes and subtract
0.5 for at least X successes.

THE DISTRIBUTION OF THE SAMPLE MEAN

Consider X1, X2, X3 ……. Xn has a random sample of size n.

1
Taken from a population with mean (µ) and variance ( σ 2), the sample mean ( x ) =
n
∑ X i , has mean
 σ2 
u and variance  

 n 

SAMPLING FROM A NORMAL POPULATION

If X1, X2, X3, ………Xn is a random sample of size n( n < 30) taken from a population that is
σ
2
normally distributed then the mean = u and variance =
n
σ
Standard deviation = it is termed as standard error of mean.
n
(i)When sample size n is large (n ≥ 30 )
If X1, X2, X3, ……., Xn is a random sample of size n(n ≥ 30) taken from a population that is normally
distributed, then the mean = µ
σ
2
Variance =
n
σ
Standard deviation = also called standard error of mean,
n
(iii) The sample proportion.
If a population has P as a proportion of success and q as failure with sample size n, if it is a normal
approximation to the binomial distribution then.
E(P) = nP = mean
Variance = Var(P) = npq
Standard deviation = npq
Normal approximation to Binomal, the continuity correction
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1
is +
2
(X + 0.5 − np)
Z =
npq
(X + 0.5 ) − np
Z =
npq
(X − 0.5 ) − np
Z =
npq
Example 1: A certain type of cabbage has a mass which is normally distributed with mean 1 kg
and standard deviation 0.15 kg. In a lorry load of 800 of these cabbages, estimate how many will
have mass:
(a) greater than 0.79 Kg
(b) less than 1.13 kg.
(c) between 0.85 Kg and 1.15 kg.
(d) between 0.75 kg and 1.29 kg.
Solution:

σ = 0.15

X1 = 0.79 µ = 1

(0.79 − 1))
P(X > 0.79) = P(Z >
0.15
= P(Z > - 1.4)
P(Z > -1.4) = P(Z < 1.4)

NOTE:

f(x) f(x)
σ σ=1

-X1 X1

P(X > -X1) = P(X <X1)

P(Z > -1.4) = 0.9192.

The expected number = np. (n = 800, p = 0.9192. )

= 800 x 0.9192
= 735 cabbages.
(b) P(X < 1.13)

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f(x)

σ = 0.15

µ=1 X = 1.13

 1.13 − 1 
P(X < 1.13) = PZ∠ 
 0.15 
= P (Z < 0.8667)
= 0.8097
The expected number of cabbages = np
n = 800 p = 0.8078
= 800 x 0.8078 = 646 cabbages.
(c) P(0.85 < X < 1.15)

f(x)

σ = 0.15

X1 = 0.05 µ = 1 X2 = 1.15
/
P(0.85 < X < 1.15) = P (X < 1.15) – P(X < 0.85)
(1.15 −1) - P(Z < 0.85 − 1 
P( - 1 < Z < 1) = P(Z < 
0.15 0.15 
= P(Z < 1) - P(Z < -1)
= P(Z < 1) – P(Z > 1))
= P(Z < 1) – (1 – P(Z < 1 ))
= 2P(Z < 1) – 1
= 2 x 0.8413 – 1
P(-1 < Z < 1) = 0.6826
The expected number of cabbages = np.
n = 800, p = 0.6826
= 800 x 0.6826
= 546 cabbages
(e)P(0.75 < X < 1.29).

Solution:
f(x)

0.75 1.29

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P(0.75 < X < 1.29) = P(X < 1.29) - P(X < 0.75)
(1.29 − 1)  (0.75 −1) 
P(-1.6667 < Z < 1.9333) = P(Z< - P Z < 
0.15  0.15 
= P(Z < 1.9333) – P(Z < -1.6667)
= 0.9734 – (P(Z >1.6667)
= 0.9734 – ( 1 – P(Z < 1.6667))
= 0.9734 – 1 + 0.9522
= 0.9256
Expected number of cabbages = np
n = 800 , p = 0.9256
= 800 x 0.9256
= 740 cabbages
Example 2: A certain firm sells maize flour in bags of mean weight 40Kg and standard deviation
of 2kg, Given that the weight is normally distributed, find:
(i) the probability that the weight of any bay taken at random will lie between 410 and 42.5Kg.
(ii) the percentage of bags whose weight exceeds 43 Kg.
(iii)the number of bags rejected out of a 500 bags purchased by a retailer whose consumers
cannot accept a bag whose weight is below 38 5Kg.
Solution: (i) P(41.0 < X < 42.5), µ = 40, σ = 2

f(x)
σ=2

41 42.5
µ = 40

P(41 < X < 42.5) = P(X <42.5) – P(X < 41)

(42.5 − 40)) (41 − 40) 
P(0.5< 2 < 1.25) = P(Z < - P(Z< 
2 2 
= P( Z < 1.25) – P(Z < 0.5)
= 0.89644 - 0.6915
= 0.2029
(ii) P(X > 43)
f(x)
σ = 2

µ = 40, X= 43
P(X >43) = 1 – P(X < 43)
 43 − 40 
= 1 – P Z∠ 
 2 
= 1 – P( X < 1.5) = 1 – 09332
P(X > 43) = 0.0668
Percentage of P(X > 43) = 0.0668 x 100%
= 6.68%
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(iv) P(X < 38.5)
f(x)

σ=2

X = 38.5, µ = 40

38.5 − 40 )
P(X<38.5) = P(Z < = P(Z - 0.75)
2
P(Z < -0.75) = P(Z > 0.75)
= 1 – P(Z < 0.75)
= 1 – 0.7734
= 0.2266
Number of bags rejected = nP.
n = 500, P = 0.2266
= 500 x 0.2266
= 113.3 bags
~ 113 bags
Example 3: A machine which automatically packs potatoes into bags is known to operate with
mean 25Kg and standard deviation 0.5Kg. Assuming it’s a normal distribution find the
percentage of bags which weigh:
(a) more than 26Kg.
(b) between 24 and 25Kg
To what new target mean weight should the machine be set so that 90% of the bags weigh more
than 26Kg? In this case what weight would be exceeded by 0.1% of the bags?
Solution: (a) µ = 25 σ = 0.5Kg.
 26 − 25 
P(X > 25 ) = P z > 
 0.5 
= P( Z > 2 )
= 1 – P( Z < 2)
= 1 – 0.9772
= 0.0228
Percentage of P(X > 25) = 0.0228 x 100%
= 2.28%
(b) P(24 < X < 25) = P(X < 25) – P(X <24)
 26 − 25   24 − 25 
= P z >  - P z > 
 0.5   0.5 
= P(Z < 0 ) - P(Z < -2)
= 0.5 - (P(Z > 2 )
= 0.5 - {1 – P(Z < 2)}
= P(Z < 2) – 0.5
= 0.9772 – 0.5
= 0.4772
Percentage of P (24 < X < 25) = 0.4772 x 100%
= 47.72%
Let the new mean = µ
P(X > 26 ) = 0.9
 26 − µ 
P z >  = 0.9
 0.5 

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26 − µ
= -1.28
0.5
µ = 26 + 1.28 x 0.5
= 26.64
Let the required weight be x.
0 .1
P( X > x) = = 0.001
100

 x − 26.64 
P z >  = 0.001
 0.5 
X − 26.64
= 3.01
0.5
x = 26.64 + 3.01 x 0.5 = 28.145

Problem: A certain type of cabbage has a mass which is normally distributed with mean 1
kg and standard deviation 0.15 kg. In a lorry of 800 of these cabbages, estimate how many will
be
(a). Greater than 0.79 kg
(b). Less than 1.13 kg
(c). Between 0.85 kg and 1.15 kg

10.
σ = 0.15 kg
800 cabbages

0.75
µ = 1 kg

(a) The number of cabbages that will weigh greater than 0.79 kg is given by;
P (x > 0.79) x 800
But P (x > 0.79) = 1 - P (x ≤ 0.79)
Using z - values,
0.79 − 1
z = = -1.4
0.15
P (x > 0.79) = 1 - P (z ≤ 0.79)
= P (z > -1.4)
= 0.5 + 0.4192
P (x > 0.79) = 0.9192
Hence the number of cabbages that weigh greater than 0.79 kg are;
= 800 x 0.9192
= 735.36
So, the number of cabbages that will weigh more than 0.79 kg are approximately 735.
(b)

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σ = 0.15 kg

1.13 kg
µ = 1 kg

Those that will weigh less than 1.13 kg are;

P(x < 1.13) x 800
Using z - values,
1.13 − 1
z = = 0.867
0.15
P(z < 0.867) x 800
Using tables,
P(z < 0.867) = 0.5 + 0.2794
= 0.7794

The number of cabbages that will weigh less than 1.13 kg are;
0.7794 x 800 = 623 cabbages.

(c) Those that will weigh between 0.85 kg and 1.15 kg are;
P (0.85 ≤ x ≤ 1.15) x 800
Using z values,
0.85 − 1
z1 = = -1
0.15
1.15 − 1
& z2 = = 1
0.15
σ = 0.15
we find P (z < z < z )
1 2

0.85 1.15
µ =1

P ( -1 < z < 1) = P (z < 1) + P( z - 1)

= 0.3413 + 03413
= 0.6826
Hence the required probability is 0.6826
The number of cabbages is;
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0.6826 x 800 = 546

Example 4: A total population of 700 students sat an examination for which the pass mark was
50. Their marks were normally distributed. 28 students scored below 40 marks while 35 scored
above 60.
(a) Find the mean mark and standard deviation of the students.
(b) What is the probability that a student chosen at random passed the examination ?
Solution: (a)
f(x)
35
28
= 0.04 = 0.05
700 700

X = 40 X = 60

 40 − µ  40 − µ
P( X < 40 ) = P z >  = 0.04. Let = Z1
 σ  σ
 40 − µ    40 − µ 
P( z < −    = P z > 
 σ   σ 
 40 − µ 
= - P z > 
 σ 
 40 − µ 
∴ P z <  = 0.96
 σ 
Z1 = 1.75 -Z1 = -1.75
40 − µ
∴ = -1.75
σ
40 - µ = -1.75 S (i)
P(X > 60) = 1 - P(X < 60) = 0.05
 40 − µ 
P z <  = 0.95
 σ 
Z2 = 1.645
60 − µ
= 1.645
σ
60 – µ = 1.645 σ (ii)
40 – µ = - 1.75 σ
20 = 3.395 σ
σ = 5.89
µ = 60 – 1.645 × 5.89 = 50.31
µ = 50.31.
(b) P(X > 50) = 1 – P(X < 50)
 50 − 50.31 
= 1 – P Z < 
 5.89 
= 1 – P(Z < -0.0526)
= 1 – P(Z > 0.0526)

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= 1 – ( 1 – P(Z < 0.0526)
= P(Z < 0.0526)
= 0.5211

Number of students who passed = np n = 700, p = 0.5211

= 700 x 0.5211
= 365 Students
P(X < 48) = 1 – P(X < 48 )
 48 − 50.31 
= 1 – P Z < 
 5.89 
= 1 – P(Z < -0.3926)
= 1 – P(Z> 0.3926)
= 1 – ( 1 – P(Z < 0.3926)
= P(Z < 0.3926)
= 0.6527
Number of students P(X > 48) = np
n = 700 p = 0.6527
= 700 x 0.6527
= 457 students.
The increase in number of students who passed
= (457 - 365) students.
= 92 students.
Examples 5: The mean length of 500 Tropical forest leaves from a certain forest is 151mm and
the standard deviation is 15mm.
Assuming that the length are normally distributed find how many leaves measures:
(a) between 120 and 155mm.
(b) more than 185mm
(c) less than 128mm
(d) 128mm
Solution (a)

f(x)
σ = 15

X1 = 120 µ = 151 X2 = 155

P(120 < X < 155) = P(X < 155) - P(X<120)

 155 − 151   120 − 151 
= P z <  - P z < 
 15   15 
= P(Z < 0.27) - P(Z < -2.07).
= 0.6064 – P(Z > 2.07)
= 0.6064 – (1 – P(Z < 2.07).
= 0.6064 – (1 – 0.9808)
= 0.5872
Number of leaves having the length between 120 and 155mm = nP
n = 500 P = 0.5872

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Advanced Level Statistics & Numerical methods 177

= 500 x 0.5872
= 294
(b) P(X >185)
f(x)

σ = 15

µ = 151 X = 185

P(X > 185) = 1 – P(X < 185)

 185 − 151 
= 1 - P z < 
 15 
= 1 – P(Z < 2.27).
= 1 – 0.9884
= 0.0116.
Number of leaves having the length greater than 185mm = np.
n = 500 p = 0.0116
= 500 x 0.0116
= 6.
(c) P(X < 128)
f(x)

σ = 15

X = 128 µ = 151

 128 − 151 
(X < 128) = P z < 
 15 
= P(Z < -1.53)
= P(Z > 1.53)
= 1 – P(Z < 1.53)
= 1 – 0.9370
= 0.063
Number of leaves having the length less than 128 = nP
n = 500, P = 0.063
= 500 x 0.063
= 32.
(d) P(X = 128) = P(X<128.5) - P(X <127.5)
 128 .5 − 151   127 .5 − 151 
= P z <  - P z < 
 15   15 
= P(Z < - 1.5) – P(Z < - 1.57).
= P(Z > 1.5) – P(Z > 1.57)
= 1 – P(Z < 1.5) – 1 + P(Z < 1.57)
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= 1 – 0.9332 – 1 + 0.9418
= 0.0086
Number of leaves having length equal to 128 = np.
n = 500, p = 0.0086
= 500 x 0.0086
= 4
Example 6: The diameter of a sample of oranges to the nearest cm were:

Diameter (cm) 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Frequency 9 15 21 32 19 13 11

(i) Calculate the mean and standard deviation.

(ii) Assuming the distribution is normal, find the minimum diameter if the smallest 10% of the
oranges are rejected for being too small.

Solution: x f fx fx2
8 9 72 576
9 15 135 1215
10 21 210 2100
11 32 352 3872
12 19 228 2736
13 13 169 2197
14 11 154 2156

∑ f = 120
∑ f x = 1320 , ∑ fx 2
= 14,852

(i) Mean (µ) =

∑ fx
∑f
1320
=
120
= 11

Standard deviation σ =
∑ fx 2 − µ2
∑f
14852
= − (11) 2
120
= 1.6633
(iii) 10% being too small.

σ = 1.66
0.1

-Z µ = 11

P(Z<-Z1) = 0.1
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Advanced Level Statistics & Numerical methods 179

P(Z > Z1) = 0.1
1 – P(Z < Z1) = 0.1
P(Z < Z1) = 0.9
Z1 = 1.282. ∴ -Z1 = -1.282
X1 −µ
-Z1 =
σ
X 1 − 11
-1.282 =
1.6633
=X1 11 – 1.282 × 1.6633
= 8.876
X1 ~ 8.87
Example 7: The number of AIDS Victims in a certain town is said to be normally
distributed with mean of 1,000 and standard deviation 150. Find :
(a) the probability that in a group of less than 850 people chosen at random, you will find a
victim.
(b) the probability that in a randomly selected group of people between 750 and 1200 there will
be an AIDS free person.
(c)Assuming that the total population of town is 62,000. Find the expected number of people who
are AIDS victims in a group of more than 1375 chosen at random.

f(x)
850 − 1,000 
P(X < 850) = P  Z ∠ 
σ = 150  150 
= P(Z < -1)
= P(Z > 1)
= 1 – P(Z < 1)
= 1 – 0.3413
X1 = 850 µ = 1,000 = 0.1587

(b)

f(x)

σ = 150

X = 750 µ = 1000 X = 1200

P(750 < X < 1200) = P(X < 1200) – P(X < 750)
 1200 − 1000   750 − 1000 
= P Z 〈  - P Z 〈 
 150   150 
= P(Z < 1.33) - P(Z < -1.67)
= 0.9082 – 1 + P(Z < 1.67)
= 0.9082 – 1 + 0.9525
= 0.8607

∴ The probability of normal people = 1 – 0.8607

= 0.1393
(c) n = 62,000 , P(X > 1375).

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f(x)
σ = 150

µ = 1000 X1 = 1375

 1375 − 1000 
P(X > 1375) = P Z ∠ 
 150 
= P( Z > 2.5)
= 1 - P(Z < 2.5 )
= 1 – 0.9938
= 0.0062
Expected number of AIDS victims = np, n = 62,000 P = 0.0062

6. On a certain farm 20% of the cows are infected by a tick disease. If a random sample of 50
cows is selected from the farm, find the probability that not more than 10% of the cows are
infected.

Solution:
Let x be the random variable for the number of cows infected.
⇒ x ˜ B (n, p)
n = 50
p = P (A) = 0.2
q = 1 – q = 0.8
Since n > 30 X – N (np. npq)
Mean = np = 50 × 0.2 = 10
S.d = npq = 50 × 0.2 × 0.8 = 8
10% of 50 cows = 5 cows
⇒ P(x ≤ 5) = 1 – P (x ≥ 6).
⇒ P (x ≥ 6) = P (x > 6 – 0.5)
= P (x > 5.5)
Standardizing
 5.5 − 10 
⇒ We have P  Z > 
 8 
− 4.5
⇒ P(Z > ) = P (x > - 1.591)
2.828
P (Z > - 1.591) = 0.5 + P(-1.591 < z < 0)
= 0.5 + P(0<z<1.591
= 0.5 + 0.4442
= 0.9442.
⇒ P(x≥5) = 0.9442
Thus p (x≤ 5) = 1- 0.9442
= 0.0558
The probability that not more than 10% of the cows are infected is 0.0558. (4dps)

Example 8:
The distribution of the volumes of Mirinda fruity in a bottle is normally
Distributed with mean 300mls and variance 4. If a random sample of 4 bottles is taken, find the
probability that one of the bottles has a volume of less than 302mls but more than 298mls.
Solution:
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Advanced Level Statistics & Numerical methods 181

f(x)
Vax(X) = 4
σ = 2

X1 = 298 µ = 300 X2 = 302

P(298 < X < 302) = P(X < 302) - P(X < 298)
 302 − 300   298 − 300 
= P Z ∠  - P Z ∠ 
 2   2 
= P(Z < 1) – P( Z < 1)
= P(Z < 1 ) – P(Z < 1 )
= P(Z < 1 ) – 1 + P(Z < 1)
= 2P( Z < 1) – 1
= 2 x 0.8413 – 1
= 0.6826
P = 0.6826 q = 0.3174
P(X = 1 ) = 4 C1 P1 q3 = 4 C1 (0.6826)1 (0.3174)3
1 1 1
X = np = 200 x = 100 p = q = n = 200
2 2 2
δ = npq
1 1
= 200 x x
2 2
= 7.0711
 114.5 − 100 
= P Z ∠ 
 7.0711 
= P(Z < 2.05)
= 0.9798

 94.5 − 100 
(iii) P(X > 95) = P Z ∠ 
 7.0711 
= P(Z > -0.78)
= P(Z < 0.78)
= 0.7823

P(92 < X < 112) = P(X < 112) - P(X < 92)
 112.5 − 100   92.5 − 100 
= P Z ∠  - P Z ∠ 
 7.0711   7.0711 
= P(Z < 1.77) – P(Z < -1.06)
= P(Z < 1.77) - P(Z > 1.06)
= P(Z < 1.77) – 1 + P(Z < 1.06)
= 0.9616 – 1 + 0.8554
= 0.817
(iv) P(100 < X < 115)

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182 Advanced Level Statistics & Numerical methods

f(x)

σ = 7.0711

X1 = 100 X2 = 115

P(100 < X < 115) = P(X < 115) – P(X < 100)
 115.5 − 100   100.5 − 100 
= P Z 〈  - P Z 〈 
 7.0711   7.0711 
= P(Z < 2.19) - P(Z < 0.07)
= 0.9857 – 0.5279
= 0.4578

Example 10:
A sub-committee of European Economic Community has 15% of the members from Belgium,
25% from Germany, 10% from Spain, 30% from England and 20% from Holland attend a
conference sample of 100 members is randomly selected from the conference, determine the
probability that
(i) Exactly 25 members come from Holland.
(ii) At most 30 members are from England
(iii) Between 10 and 15 members are from Spain.
(iv) At least 12 members are from Belgium.
Solution:

(i) P(X = 25) = P(24.5 < X < 25.5), Holland

200
n = 100 , p = = 0.2 q = 0.8
100
E(H) = np
= 100 x 0.2
= 20
σ = 20 x 0.8
= 4
f(x)
σ = 4

X2 = 25.5

µ = 20,X1=24.5

P(24.5 < X < 25.5) = P(X < 25.5) - P(X < 24.5)
 26 − 20   25 − 20 
= P Z 〈  - P Z 〈 
 4   4 
= P(Z < 1.5) – P( Z < 1.25)
= 0.9332 - 0.8944
= 0.0388
(ii) P(X < 30) from England
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Advanced Level Statistics & Numerical methods 183

30
P(E) = = 0.3 = P,
100
q = 0.7, n = 100
E(E) = nP
= 100 x 0.3 = 30
δ = npq = 30 x 0.7
= 4. 58

µ = 30
σ = 4.58

P(X < 30 ) = P  Z 〈
(30 + 0.5 ) − 30 
 = P(Z < 0.11)
 4 . 58 
(iii) P(10 < X < 15) from Spain.
10
P(S) =
100
= 0.1 = p
q = 0.9
E(S) = 0.1 x 100
= 10
σ = 10 x 0.9
= 3
f(x)

σ=3

X1 = 10 X2 = 15

P(10 < x < 15 ) = P(X , 15) – P(x , 10)

 15.5 − 10   10.5 − 10 
= P Z 〈  - P Z 〈 
 3   3 
= P(Z < 1.83) - P( < 0.17)
= 0.9664 – 0.5675
= 0.3989
(iv) P( X > 12) from Belgium.
15
P(B) =
100
= 0.15 = P,
q = 0.85 n = 100
E(B) = nP
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= 100 x 0.15
= 15
σ = 15 x 0.85
= 3.57

 (12 − 0.5) − 15 
P(X > 12) = P Z > 
 3.57 
= P( Z > -0.98)
= P(Z < 0.98)
= 0.8365

Example 11: Boxes in a factory have weights which are normally distributed with a mean of
4.5Kg and a standard deviation of 2.0Kg. Find the probability of there being a box with a weight
of more than 5.4Kg when a box is chosen at random. If a sample of 16 boxes is drawn, find the
probability that the mean is between:
(i) 4.6 and 4.7Kg.
(ii) 4.3 and 4.7Kg.
Solution: u = 4.5 σ =2 P(X > 5.4 )

f(x)
σ = 2

µ = 4.5, X1= 5.4

P(X > 5.4) = 1 – P(X < 5.4)

 5.4 − 4.5 
= 1 – PZ > 
 2 
= 1 – P(Z < 0.45)
= 1 – 0.6736
= 0.3262
(i) Sample of size (n) = 16.
σ
E(X) = µ, Standard deviation =
n
2 1
E(X) = µ = 4.5 = =
16 2
= 0.5
 4.6 − 4.5 4.7 − 4.5 
P( 4.6 ≤ X ≤ 4.7) = P ≤Z≤ 
 0.5 0 .5 
= P(0.2 ≤ Z ≤ 0.4 )
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Advanced Level Statistics & Numerical methods 185

= P(Z ≤ 0.4 ) - P( Z ≤ 0.2 )
= 0.6554 – 0.5793
= 0.0761
 P 4.3 − 4.5 4.7 − 4.5 
(ii) P(4.3 ≤ X ≤ 4.7 ) =  ≤Z≤ 
 0.5 0.5 
= P( -0.4 ≤ Z ≤ 0.4 )
= P( Z ≤ 0.4 ) - P(Z ≤ -0.4)
= P(Z ≤ 0.4) – P(Z ≥ 0.4 )
= P(Z ≤ 0.4) – 1 + P( Z ≤ 0.4)
= 2P( Z ≤ 0.4 ) – 1
= 2 x 0.6554 – 1
= 0.3108

Example 12: Certain tubes manufactured by a company have a mean life time of 800 hours and
standard deviation of 60 hours. Find the probability that a random sample of 16 tubes taken
from the group will have a mean life time.
(a) between 790 and 810 hours.
(b) Less than 785 hours
(c) more than 820 hours
(d) between 770 and 830 hours
Solution:
(a) Sample size (n) = 16 is small, µ = 800, σ = 60
σ
E(X) = µ = 800 Standard deviation =
n
60 60
= = = 15
16 4
f(x)

σ = 15

X1 = 790 µ = 800 X2 = 810

P(790 ≤ X ≤ 810) = P(X ≤ 810) – P(X ≤ 790)

 810 − 800   790 − 800 
= PZ ≤  - PZ ≤ 
 15   15 
= P( Z ≤ 0.671) – P(Z ≤ -0.67)
= P(Z ≤ 0.67) – P(Z ≥ 0.67)
= P(Z ≤ 0.67) – 1 + P(Z ≤ 0.67)
= 2P(Z ≤ 0.67) – 1
= 2 x 0.7486 – 1
= 0.4972

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 785 − 800 
P(X < 785) = P Z 〈 
 15 
= P( Z < -1 ) = P(Z < 1)
= 1 – P(Z < 1) = 1 – 0.8413
= 0.1587

f(x)
σ = 15

µ = 800, X= 820

 820 − 800 
PZ >  = P( Z > 1.33)
 15 
= 1 – P(Z < 1.33)
= 1- 0.9082
= 0.0918

f(x)

X1 = 770 µ = 800 X2 = 830

P (770 ≤ X ≤ 830) = P(X ≤ 830) – P(X ≤ 770)

 830 − 800   770 − 800 
= PZ ≤  - PZ ≤ 
 15   15 
= P(Z ≤ 2) – P(Z ≤ -2)
= P(Z ≤ 2) – P(Z ≥ 2)
= P(Z ≤ 2) – 1 + P(Z ≤ 2)
= 2P(Z ≤ 2) – 1
= 2 x 0.9772 – 1
= 0.9544
Example 13:
A sample of 100 apples is taken from a load. The apples have the following distribution of sizes.
Diameter to nearest cm 6 7 8 9 10
Frequency 11 21 38 17 13

Determine:
(i) the mean and standard deviation of these diameters.
(ii) Assume the distribution is approximately normal with this mean and standard deviation if
5% are to be rejected as too small and 5% are to be rejected as too large.
Solution:

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Advanced Level Statistics & Numerical methods 187

2
x f fx fx
6 11 66 396
7 21 147 1029
8 38 304 2432
9 17 153 1377
10 13 130 1300
∑ f =100 ∑ f x =800 ∑fx 2
= 6534

(i) Mean ( µ ) =
∑fx
∑f
800
= = 8
100

Standard deviation = ∑ fx 2 − (µ) 2

∑f
6534
= − µ2
100
= 1.1576.
(ii) (a)

P(Z < -Z1) = 0.05

P(Z > Z1) = 0.05
1 – P(Z < Z1) = 0.05
P(Z < Z1) = 0.95
Z1 = 1.645
-Z1 = -1.645
X1− µ
-Z1 = = -1.645
σ
X1 – 8 = -1 .645 x 1.1576
X1 = 8 – 1625 x 1.1576
X1 = 6.0957
X1 = 6.0957
f(x)

σ = 1.1576

0.05

µ=8 X2

P(Z > Z2) = 0.05

1 – P(Z < Z2) = 0.05
P(Z < Z2) = 0.95
Z2 = 1.645
X2− µ
= Z2
σ
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188 Advanced Level Statistics & Numerical methods

X2− 8
= 1.645
1.1576
X2 = 8 + 1.645 x 1.1576
X2 = 9.9043
∴ range is 6.0957 – 9.9043
Example 14: The bulbs manufactured by a company have a mean life of 800 hours and standard
deviation of 60 hours. Find the probability that a random sample of 64 bulbs taken from a group
will have a mean life time of :
(a) between 790 and 810 hours.
(b) Less than 785 hours
(c) More than 820 hours
(d) Between 770 and 830 hours
Solution:
µ = 800 σ = 60
Sample selected (n) = 64 is large.
E(X) = µ = 800.
σ
Standard deviation =
n
60
=
64
= 7.5
(a) P(790 ≤ X ≤ 810) = P(X ≤ 810) - P(X ≤ 790 )

f(x)
σ = 7.5

X1 = 790 µ = 800 X2 = 810

 810 − 800   790 − 800 

= P Z ≤  - P Z ≤ 
 7.5   7.5 
= P(Z ≤ 1.33) – P(Z ≤ -1.33)
= P(Z ≤ 1.33) – P(Z ≥ 1.33)
= P(Z ≤ 1.33) – 1 + P(Z ≤ 1.33)
= 2P(Z ≤ 1.33) – 1
= 2 x 0.9082 – 1
= 0.8164
(b) P(X < 785)

f(x)

σ = 7.5

X1 = 785 µ = 800

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Advanced Level Statistics & Numerical methods 189

 785 − 800 
P(X < 785) = P Z ≤ 
 7 .5 
= P(Z < -2)
= P(Z > 2)
= 1 – P(Z < 2)
= 1 – 0.9772
= 0.0228
(c) P (X > 820)
f(x)

σ = 7.5

µ = 800 X1 = 820

 820 − 800 
P(X > 820) = P Z ≤  = P(Z > 2.67)
 7.5 
= 1 – P(Z < 2.67)
= 1 – 09962
= 0.0038
(d) P(770 ≤ X ≤ 830) = P(X ≤ 830) – P(X ≤ 770)
f(x)

σ = 7.5

X1 = 770 µ = 800 X2 = 830

 830 − 800   770 − 800 

= P Z ≤  - P Z ≤ 
 7.5   7.5 
= P(Z < 4.0) – P(Z < -4.0)
= P(Z < 4.0) – P(Z > 4.0)
= P(Z < 4.0) – 1 + P(Z < 4.0)
= 2P(Z < 4.0) – 1
= 2 -1
= 1
Example 15: It is known that 3% of the eggs arriving at the shop are broken, what is the
probability that on a morning when 500 eggs arrive.
(a) 5% or more will be broken?
(b) 3% or less will be broken?
3
Solution: µ = np n = 500 p = = 0.03
100
Use normal approximation to binomial
` q = 1 – 0.03 = 0.97
Standard deviation = 500 x 0.03 x 0.97
= 3.814
 24.5 − 15 
(a) P(X ≥ 25) = P Z ≤ 
 3.814 
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190 Advanced Level Statistics & Numerical methods

 15.5 − 15 
(b) P(X ≤ 15) = P Z ≤ 
 3.814 
= P( ≤ 0.13)
= 0.5521

EXERCISE
1… The weights of Broilers are normally distributed with mean 1.55Kg and standard deviation 0.2kg.
Determine the percentage of Broilers with weights.:
(i) less than or equal to 1 kg.
(ii) between 1.2 and 1.3kg.
(iii) between 1.5 and 1.75kg.
(iv) greater than or equal to 2Kg.

2. The marks obtained by 500 candidates by 500 candidates in an examination are normally
distributed with mean of 45 marks and a standard deviation of 20 marks.
(i) Given that the pass mark is 41, estimate the number of candidates who passed the examination.
(ii) If 5% of the candidates obtain a distinction by scoring x marks or more, estimate the value of x.
(iii) Estimate the interquartile range of the distribution.

3. A horse can jump and clear a height of 1.68m once in five attempts and a height of 1.52m nine
times out of ten attempts. Assuming the heights the horse clears are normally distributed estimate:
(i) the mean
(ii) standard deviation of the distribution.

4. A sample of 100 passion fruits is taken from a load. The passion fruits have distribution of size
that are as follows.
Diameter to nearest cm 6 7 8 9 10
Frequency 11 21 38 17 13

Determine: (i) mean

(ii) standard deviation of these diameters.
Assuming the distribution is approximately normal with this mean and this standard deviation find the
size of passion fruits for packing.
(iii)If 5% are to be rejected as too small.
(iii) If 5% are to rejected as too large.

5. The distribution of the length mm of 717 eggs of hens was found to i.e as below.
Length central value ) 19.25 20.25 21.25 22.25 23.25
Frequency 3 22 123 300 201

Length central Value) 24.25 25.25 26.25

Frequency 61 6 1

Show that
(i) mean is 22.49
(ii) standard deviation is 1,00
The eggs are classified into three categories described as long, medium and short in such away that
one third of the eggs might be expected to fall in each category. Determine where the divisions on the
length scale should be made.

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Advanced Level Statistics & Numerical methods 191

6. In the Bushenyi District Joint Mock examination the marks in Mathematics were normally
distributed with mean 72 and standard deviation 8.
(a) Find the minimum mark of the top 20% of the students.
(b) Find the probability that in a random sample of 100 students the minimum mark of the to 20%
will be less than 76.
7. The coins produced by a certain machine have mean diameter of 30.0Imm with standard
deviation 0.08mm. A sample of 100 coins is taken. Find the probability that the mean diameter of the
coins in this sample is less than 30mm.

8. The diameters x of 110 iron rods were measured in centimeters and the results were summarized
as follows ∑ x = 36.5 and ∑ x 2 = 12.49
Find: (i) mean
(iii) standard deviation of these measurements.
Assuming these measurements are a sample from a normal distribution with this mean and this
standard deviation find:
(iii) the probability that the mean diameter of a sample of size 110 is greater than 0.345cm

9. A bus arrives at Mbarara at 09.30 daily . On ten successive days the number of minutes by which
the train was late were as follows:
3, 0, 4, -2, -3, 13, 8, -2, 6, 3.
Show that: (i) the mean of arrival is 09.33
(ii) Calculate the standard deviation.
Assuming the time of arrival is normally distributed with the above mean and standard deviation
estimate the probability that the bus will arrive.
(i) on or before 09.30
(ii)more than 8 minutes late.

10. In a subsidiary Mathematics U.N.E.B. examination last year 30% of the candidates failed and
10% obtained distinctions, the pass mark was 84 out of 200 and the minimum mark required for the
distinction was 154 out of 200. Assuming the candidates marks were normally distributed determine.
(i) mean
(ii) standard deviation.
11. If an unbiased coin is tossed 1000 times what is the probability that:
(a) there will be more than 600 heads?
(b) there will be at least 450 and at most 550 heads?
(c) there will be fewer than 520 heads?

12. A confectionary firm produces there types of toffees, liquorices, nut and plain, and mixes them
together in the ratio 1:2:5 before packing them into boxes. If there are 80 toffees in a box what
percentage of boxes will contain:
(i) more than 25 nut toffees?
(ii) fewer than 58 Plain toffees?
(iii) more nut and liquorices than plain toffees?
13. (a) The heights of applicants to the police force are normally distributed with mean 170cm and
standard deviation 3.8cm, if 30% of applicants are rejected because they are too short, what is the
minimum height for the police force
(c) The diameter of washers produced by a machine has standard deviation of 0.1mm. What should
the mean diameter be if there is to be probability of only 3% that diameter exceeds 2.0mm?

14. The volume in litres of whisky in bottles filled by a machine is N(1.01, 0.012)
(a) What is the probability that a bottle contains less than 1 litre?
(b) To what value must the mean be altered to reduce the probability in (a) to 1% assuming the
standard deviation is unaltered?
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192 Advanced Level Statistics & Numerical methods

15. (a) The life of a certain make of electric light bulb is known to be normally distributed with
mean life of 2000 hours and standard deviation of 120 hours. Estimate the probability that the life of
such a bulb will be:
(i) greater than 2150 hours.
(ii) greater than 1910 hours.
(iii) with in the range 1850 hours to 2090 hours.
(b)The masses of packets of sugar are normally distributed in a large consignment of packets of sugar.
It is found that 5% of them have a mass greater than 510g and 2% have a mass greater than 515g.

Estimate: (i) the mean.

(ii) the standard deviation of this distribution.

ANSWERS
1. (i) 0.3% (ii) 6.6% (iii) 44% (iv) 1.2%)
2.(i) 290 (ii) 78 (iii) 27 )
3.(i) µ = 1.616 (ii) S = 0.075
4.(i) 8 (ii) 1.16 (iii) 6.1 (iv) 9.9)
5.22.92, 22.06mm
6.(a) 78.7 (b) 0.0090 )
7.(0.1056)
8.(i) 0.332 (ii) 0.0587 (iii) 0.0092
9.(ii) 4.8min (iii) 0.27 (iv) 0.15
10. (i) µ = 104 (ii) σ = 38.8
11.(a) 0 (b) 0.999 (c) 0.89 )
12. (i) 7.8% (ii) 95.8% (iii) 0.8% )
13.(a) 168cm (b) 1.8119mm )
14.(a) 0.1587 (b) 1.023 litres ).
15.(a) (i) 0.1056 (ii) 0.7734 (iii) 0.6678
(b) (i) µ = 50.154 (iii) σ = 4 )

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