PROBABILITY

It has 2 APPROACHES : 1) SUBJECTIVE

2) OBJECTIVE

# DEFINITIONS
1 EXPERIMENT:- THE performance which produces "certain Results".

2) RANDOM EXPERIMENT:- IF the Result of the experiment Depends

on "chance only" then Experiment is
called "Random experiment".
EX: A coin is Tossed.
3) EVENT :- The outcome OF an Experiment is called Event.
Ex: let A be an event OF getting Head.
TYPES OF EVENT

a) null event
Event having "no sample points"
It is denoted by "0".

b) SIMPLE 0r Elementary event

A subset OF a sample space, consisting of a single element.

C) Mutually Exclusive And Exhaustive Events

IF A U B = S , then Exhaustive.
A n B = 0 , then Exclusive.
d) EQUALLY LIKELY EVENTS/ Mutually symmetric Events/
EQUI -probable Events

When Two events has "EQUAL" chance of occurrence.

Eg: A fair coin is Tossed.

A child is born in a family.

e) Independent Events
If happening of one event does not effect the occurrence of other.

4) SAMPLE SPACE: -
The set of all possible outcomes of an Random experiment.
It is denoted by "S".
Eg: A dice is thrown
S:{1,2,3,4,5,6}.
n(S) = 6.
APPROACHES TO PROBABILITY:

1) Classical or mathematical or Priori.

2) Emperical or posteriori or statistical

3) Axiomatic
1) Classical or mathematical or priori definition :-

Assignment OF Real numbers 0 to 1 to the events

defined in a sample spaces is known as probability.

P (A) = n (A) = favourable outcomes

n (S) Possible outcomes

NOTE: 1) P(A) always lies between 0 and 1. (O<x<1)

2) P(A) = 0 [Impossible event].
3) P(A) = 1 [SURE EVENT].
4) P(A) + P(A’) = 1 [A' complement event].
5) P(A n A') = 0
2) Emperical or statistical:

If a random experiment is Repeated large number of times.

↑ (A) = lim nIA)

n+
unis)

3) Axiomatic:
It is dependent on Set theory.
P(A) 20
P(s) = 1

. Mutually Exclusive event P (A R B) = 0

. P ( A. j B) = P(A) + P(B)
 # IMPORTANT SAMPLE SPACE
M
1) COINS: -
N(S) = 2

FOR 2 Coins = { HH, HT, TH, TT }

FOR 3 Coins = { HHH,HHT,HTH,HTT,TTH,THT,TTT,THH }
M
2) DICE:- N(S) = 6

FOR 1 Die = {1,2, 3, 4, 5, 6 }

FOR 2 Die = {(1,1),(1,2)……………….(6,6) }

NOTE : Set Of Doublets = {(1,1),(2,2), (3,3), (4,4), (5,5), (6,6) }

3) CARDS: -

52 CARDS

26 RED 26 Black

13 13 13 13
HEART DIAMOND SPADES CLUB

# NO OF SUITS = 4
# No OF CARDS IN EACH SUIT = 13 (ace,2,3……10,K,Q,J)
# No of King, Queen, Jack, Ace cards = 4
# Total face cards = 12
# Total Picture/ honor cards = 16 (face + Ace)
4) NO OF Childrens in family:-

set of 2 Childrens = {BB, BG, GB, GG}

set of 3 Children= {BBB, BBG, BGB,BGG,GBG,GBB,GGB,GGG}

5) LEAP YEAR / NON-LEAP YEAR:-

1) LEAP YEAR = 366 days (52 Weeks +2 extra days)

P(Any day) = 2
7
(2) Non-Leap year = 365 days (52 weeks +1 extra day)

P (Anyday) = 1
7
# PERMUTATION / COMBINATION
PERMUTATION COMBINATION
Selection
>
-

Arrangement >
-

>
Mp n ! +
ny n
!
-
=
=

(n r) !
-

w! (n u) !
-

>
-

4Pz = 4x3 = 12 + 1x
=x = 6
# ALGEBRA OF EVENTS
I) P(A) + P (A') = 1
%
2) ADDITION THEOREM -

# P(AUB)= P(A) + P(B) - P (A n B )

# P(AUBUC)= P(A) + P(B) + P(C) - P(A n B) - P(B n C) - P (A n C)

+ P (A n B n C)

3) DIFFERENCES % -

# P(A n B’)= P(A-B)= P(A) - P(A n B) 1A but not By

# P(B n A’)= P(B-A)= P(B) - P(A n B) IB but not A)

4) SYMMETRIC % -

# P(A B)= P(A) + P(B) - 2P(A n B)

5) DEMORGAN’S LAW 8 -

# P(A’ n B’)= P(A U B)’= 1 - P(A U B)

# P(A’ U B’)= P(A n B)’= 1 - P(A n B)

NOTE : Aflealt (Union)
Both/but /Intersections
# conditional probability
Consider
,
A Random experiment of
Tossing a Coin

Twice .

S =
SH ,
T
,
TH
,
+T & Nest = n

let Event E One Head

Exactly
=

E =
S HT ,
THS NIEl = 2

let Event F = Atleast One Head

F =
9 HT ,
Th
, HM (f) = 3
Conditional probability OF Event E : Probability that is based on some
conditions.

Condition: probability of Event E given that Event F has already being

occurred.

↑
(E/E) FavorableOutcome PE
= =

P(f)

> probability of E given I

that has already being
Occured

#What is the probability of ExactlyOM Head given

getting
that at least one head occurred ?
=
P(E/E) =

-
 Statement: If E and F are t wo events Associated with the sample
space of a Random experiment, the conditional probability of Event E
given that F has already occurred. (Denoted by E/#)

P(EF) PE
-
: =

Eg: A Family has 2 Children. What is the probability that both the
children are boys given that atleast one of them is a boy?
=> S =
9 BB ,
Bu
,
UB
, unS
n(s) = n
 let E Both fre Children are boys
4/E/f) PLEnt
:
=

E =
9 BBY
n(E) = 1

let F : AtleastOne of there is a boy

:'s

F =
&Bu ,
UB
,
BBS
n(f) = 3

.
By using conditional probability
# INDEPENDENT EVENTS
If the occurrence of one event does not effect the occurrence of
other , then the events are called Independent events.

1) P (AnB ) =P (A) . P(B)

2) P(AnBnC) =P(A) . PIB). P(C)
3) P(A’ n B') = P(A’) . P(B’)
4) P (A’nB’nC’) = P(A’).P(B'). P(C’)
# Multiplication theorem :

If A & B are events of S then probability of occurrence of both A&B is

P(AnB)

↓ ↓ ↓ ↓

Addition
P(A) PLAIB) P(A) P(B) O
P(B/A) ↑(B) .

THEOREM
.
.

mu ↓ ↓

Theory of compound Independent An B =

Probability Events
PIA) ,

P (B)
PLArB) given
# ODDS IN FAVOUR AND AGAINST AN EVENT
SAMPLE POINTS => N

M n - m

Success failure

P(failure)
M
:
P(successi = M =

I odds in favour : p(success) : P(failures

f m : n -m
.
2 odd's against any event : P(failures : P(success
n-m
·e m
. :

odds Favour
Eg
: The in are 7 : 3 and odd's
against
an event are 1 : 3 .

=> Odd's in Favora = 7 : 5

P(A) P(All I
E
=
=

12

event u :3
odd's against an =

P (B1) 1= P (B) =
2
7 7
 Random Variable (X) : it represents all outcomes of a random
experiment by real numbers .

Discrete Continuous

(How many ? ) ( How much ? )

↓
Probability mass function helps in Probability density function
Distributing probability among helps in distributing
different values of x probability among different
intervals of x
Probability mass function (Pmf) : 1P(X = x) 2 0

and

2[P(X = x) = 1

Cumulative distributive function (cdf):

Also called as step function

# (X = x) =
1(X(()
Probability density function (pdf): 1 f(X = x)20

and

2-
Expected value , variance & S.D :

2
Prepare 5 columns namely : Xi P: Pili 12 : Pisi
 Pilli Note :
E(() = E

1) if E(x) = +ve
v (() = [Pili2 - (E(1)] Then
probability is in
2
our favour.
) (E (1)]
%
= E((( -

2) If E(x)= -ve ,
then
= E(x- el)2 probability is
against us

S
. D(K) : It 3) If E(x) = 0,
then it Is fair
or unbiased or
neutral
 Properties of Expected value :

1) E(k) = k

2) E(k.x) = k. E(x)

3) E(X+Y) = E(X) + E(Y)

4) E (X.Y ) = E(X). E(Y)

=
Properties of Variance : 1) V (k)
2) V (k x)
.
= k* .
V(11)

3) v (ax [ by) = v(ak) +v (by)

= a? v(x) + b2 reg/