Statistics-1

Section (4)
Prepared By : Doaa Ghaleb
 4- Probability

● Probability : A measure that an event in the future will happen or not.

○ It can be between 0 and 1.
■ If it near 0, this event is not likely to happen
■ if it is near 1 this event is likely to happen.
 4- Probability
Probability
that E occurs
● The probability of an event E is:

,
● Some properties of probability:
 Example(1)
● A Store receives a shipment of new CDs of various genres in a box. In the
shipment there are 10 country CDs, 5 rock CDs, 12 hip hop CDs, and 3 jazz CDs.
What is the probability that the first CD Kyle chooses from the box will be
country?
 Example(2)

● A dice rolled once , what is the probability of an odd number occurring:

S = { 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 }

Let Event A be odd numbers , A = { 1, 3, 5 }

Then →
 Example(3)

● A dice rolled twice , what is the probability that sum equals 10:

S = { (1,1) , (1,2) , (1,3) , (1,4) , (1,5) , (1,6),

(2,1) , (2,2) , (2,3) , (2,4) , (2,5) , (2,6),
(3,1) , (3,2) , (3,3) , (3,4) , (3,5) , (3,6),
(4,1) , (4,2) , (4,3) , (4,4) , (4,5) , (4,6),
(5,1) , (5,2) , (5,3) , (5,4) , (5,5) , (5,6),
(6,1) , (6,2) , (6,3) , (6,4) , (6,5) , (6,6) }

Let Event A be sum equals 10 , A = { (4,6) , (6,4) , (5,5) }

Then →
 Example(4)
One card is selected at random from 40 cards number from 1 to 40; find the
probability that the selected card carries an odd number which is:
S = { 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , ….. 40 }
 Rules for probability addition:
General Rule : P (A˅B) = P(A) + P(B) – P (A˄B).

Case 1 : If two events A and B are Disjoint / Mutually exclusive , the probability
of one or the other event’s occurrence is:
P(A ˄ B) = P (A and B)= Φ (empty set)
P (A ˅ B) = P (A or B) = P (A) + P (B)

Case 2 : If A and B are independent / Not mutually exclusive, then:

P(A ˄ B) = P (A and B)= P (A) P (B).
P (A ˅ B) = P (A or B) = P (A) + P(B) – P (A) P (B).

Remember : Two events are Mutually Exclusive/ Disjoint if they can’t happen
together (they don’t intersect)
Two events are Independent/ Not Mutually Exclusive if the occurrence of one
event doesn’t affect the occurrence of the other event
 Example(1)
Let A and B be two events with P (A) =0.3 , and P (B) =0.4 , Find P (A U B) in
the following cases
Rule of complement:
 Example :

A coin tossed 3 times what it the probability of at least one head. ( hint : At
least 1 head → 1 , 2 , 3 head )

S = { HHH , HHT , HTH , THH , TTH , HTT , THT , TTT }

Let event B denote at least one head so :

B = {HTT , THT , TTH , HHH , HHT , HTH , THH }

Then P(B) =
OR
P(B) =
 Rule of multiplication:

Case 2 : If A and B are independent / Not mutually exclusive, then:

P(A ˄ B) = P (A and B)= P (A) P (B).
P (A ˅ B) = P (A or B) = P (A) + P(B) – P (A˄B).
Rule of difference:
Rule of difference:
 Rules:
Case 1 : If A and B are Disjoint / Mutually exclusive :
P(A ˄ B) = P (A and B)= Φ (empty set)
P (A ˅ B) = P (A or B) = P (A) + P (B)
P (A - B) = P (A) – P (A˄B) = P (A)
P (B - A) = P (B) – P (A˄B) = P (B)

Case 2 : If A and B are independent / Not mutually exclusive:

P(A ˄ B) = P (A and B)= P (A) P (B).
P (A ˅ B) = P (A or B) = P (A) + P(B) – P (A˄B).
P (A - B) = P (A) – P (A˄B) = P (A) - P (A) * P (B)
P (B - A) = P (B) – P (A˄B) = P (B) - P (A) * P (B)
 Example (1) :
If A and B are two events in a sample Space (S) and P(A) = 0.8, P(B) = 0.1,
P(A˅B) = 0.9 Calculate the probability of:

1) Occurrence of both A and B

General Rule : P (A˅B) = P (A) + P (B) – P (A˄B)
0.9 = 0.8 + 0.2 – P (A˄B)
→ P (A˄B) = 0.1

2) P(A-B)
P (A-B) = P (A) – P (A˄B) = 0.8 – 0.1 = 0.7
Example (2) :
P(B) = 0 .

Definitions
1- Conditional probability: is the probability that an event will occur given that
another event has occurred , we can read this as the probability of event A
given event B
,

2- Total Probability:If A1, A2, A3 partition of S then the total probability rule is :

3-Bayes’ Theorem: it is a method for revising a probability given additional

information
 1- Conditional Probability

● If A and B are mutually exclusive, then because it is

impossible for A and B to occur at the same time

● If A and B are independent, then→

which means that the occurrence of A will not affect the occurrence of B

● If A is subset from B, then →

because P (A˄B) = P(A)
 Example
A dice rolled twice , what is the probability that sum equals 10 if you know that
the 1st element = 6 ?
S = { (1,1) , (1,2) , (1,3) , (1,4) , (1,5) , (1,6),
(2,1) , (2,2) , (2,3) , (2,4) , (2,5) , (2,6),
(3,1) , (3,2) , (3,3) , (3,4) , (3,5) , (3,6),
(4,1) , (4,2) , (4,3) , (4,4) , (4,5) , (4,6),
(5,1) , (5,2) , (5,3) , (5,4) , (5,5) , (5,6),
(6,1) , (6,2) , (6,3) , (6,4) , (6,5) , (6,6) }

Let Event A is sum = 10 , A = { (4,6) , (6,4) , (5,5)

Let Event B 1st element = 6 , B = { (6,1) , (6,2) , (6,3) , (6,4) , (6,5) , (6,6) }

P(A^B) = 1/36
P(B) = 6/36
 Try with yourself

Toss a coin 4 times.

Let A = ‘at least three heads’
Let B = ‘first toss is tails’. 1.

What is P(A|B)?

(a) 1/16 (b) 1/8 (c) 1/4 (d) 1/5

 2- Total Probability Rule

Total Probability:If A1, A2, A3 partition of S then the total

probability rule is :

3- Bayes’ Theorem
3-Bayes’ Theorem: it is a method for revising a probability given additional
information
 2- Total Probability Rule

Example. : Box (I) Box (II)

Black
Box(I) ⅗
½ White ⅖
1. One ball selected at random , what is the probability Black
⅔
the ball is black?
Box(II)
½ ⅓
White
 2- Total Probability Rule

Example. : Box (I) Box (II)

Black
Box(I) ⅗
½ White ⅖
1. One ball selected at random , what is the probability Black
⅔
the ball is black? P(B) = 0.6333
Box(II)
½ ⅓
2. What is the probability the ball will be black given that White
it’s selected from Box (I) ?
 Example(1)
3 machines produce 3000 items distributed as follows:

The probability of producing items for each machine is:

The probability of defective items P (E) that can be produced from each

machine is:

P(E|M1) = 1% this means that every 100 produced from M1, 1 item will be defective

P(E|M2) = 1.5% this means that every 200 produced from M2, 3 item will be defective

P(E|M3) = 2% this means that every 1000 produced from M3, 4 item will be defective
 Example(1)

Def.

M(1) NOT
1- What is the probability of defective items?
Def.
M(2)
NOT
M(3)
Def.

NOT
 Example(1)

Def.
2- If we randomly pull an item and we discovered that it is
defective, what is the probability that this item is produced M(1) NOT
from M2? Def.
M(2)
NOT
M(3)
Def.

NOT
 Example (2)

FCAI Students

Group (I) Group (II) Group (III)

300 Students 500 Students 200 Students

Pass 98% Failed 2% Pass 99% Failed 1%

Pass 95% Failed 5%